Group 1 - Current spot silver trading is above $38.02, with an opening price of $37.82 and a current price of $38.06, reflecting a 0.58% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is $38.09, while the lowest is $37.81, indicating a bullish short-term trend for spot silver [1][4] - Spot silver has broken above the 10-day moving average, with a strong short-term outlook, and potential upward movement if it surpasses $38 [4] Group 2 - Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports due to continued purchases of Russian oil, raising some tariffs to 50% [3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary warned China about potential significant tariffs if it continues to buy sanctioned Russian oil, highlighting selective enforcement of sanctions [3] - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China aim to extend a 90-day tariff truce, with potential for tariffs to rise significantly if talks fail, increasing global trade tensions [3]

全球白银市场掀起狂潮：供需失衡引爆价格暴涨 伦敦金属交易所的警报声刺耳地鸣响，白银库存暴跌62%，仅剩2.8亿盎司，创下十年来的最低水平。上海保税区仓库内，现货溢价已飙升至12美元/盎 司，"加钱也难提货"的传真在贸易公司间飞速流传。 这种前所未有的紧缺，并非个案。湖南某冶炼厂的零库存状况，正成为整个产业链的缩影。下游工厂 的采购总监们甚至带着现金蹲守在车间门口，争抢刚下线的银锭，"今天出的银锭我全包！现款现结！" 货车还没装完，银锭就被三家光伏企业瓜分殆尽。 这种白银短缺的疯狂，从终端市场一路蔓延至生产源头。在湖南永兴县，号称"白银帝国"的三层银楼，用5万两白银打造的宏伟建筑，每天早上8点就被汹涌 的游客挤满。游客们举着刚购买的银镯子，兴奋地讲述着"去年买才7元/克，晚半年多花500块"的经历。 当地一家白银矿厂老板刘晓伟的柜台更是人满为 患，"每天500人起跳，投资银条半天卖空，珐琅银梳子订单涨了20%！"他身后的货车上，镀金生肖银锁正准备发往全国各地。 同在湖南，郴州一家白银门 店单日客流量突破800人，而上海豫园的商家每月销售新中式银饰则超过1万件。陈韵，一位上海豫园白银批发店的老板，指着仓库感叹道： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities; in the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about the decline in US employment and economic slowdown are rising, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year is increasing, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [7]. - Most domestic commodity futures declined, with crude oil leading the decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, the market's bets on the Fed's interest rate cut declined as the US Q2 GDP was better than expected, and the Fed's July meeting sent hawkish signals. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing concerns about the US economic downturn and the Fed's interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to US inflation data, the Jackson Hole meeting, and other events [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI was still above the critical point. The negotiation progress between the US and other economies needs to be monitored [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: After event settlement, capital congestion is released. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are strengthening in a volatile manner. The Trump tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy should be monitored. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel**: After the meeting results are settled, attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as special - bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has slightly decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as overseas mine production and transportation, domestic iron - water production, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand remain tight, and the fifth round of price increases has started. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has significantly corrected. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is acceptable. Attention should be paid to cost adjustments. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: The futures price has declined, and spot sales have started to weaken. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Freight has risen in the short - term, supporting the spot price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering soda - ash inventory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: A non - ferrous metal growth - stabilization plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply disturbances, domestic policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [8]. - **Alumina**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the alumina price is adjusting at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected ore production resumption and electrolytic - aluminum production resumption [8]. - **Aluminum**: The sentiment boost has slowed down, and the aluminum price has declined. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks, supply disturbances, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Macro - sentiment persists, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks and unexpected zinc - ore supply recovery [8]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the lead price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply - side disturbances and other factors [8]. - **Nickel**: The "anti - involution" trading has slowed down, and the nickel price is moving in a wide - range volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected supply - side production cuts [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is strengthening in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" sentiment still exists, and the silicon price has rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering unexpected supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has corrected after rising. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and supply disturbances [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues. Attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure persists, and the cost side dominates the rhythm. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil prices have declined, and there is pressure from increased asphalt production. The futures price is under downward pressure. It is expected to decline, considering unexpected demand [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The possibility of a sharp decline in the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is increasing. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price has weakened following crude oil. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Methanol**: There is a short - term differentiation between the inland and ports. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are below expectations. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering export policies and capacity elimination [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have affected the arrival rhythm, and inventory accumulation is expected in August. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering port inventory accumulation inflection points and device recovery [10]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has returned to fundamental pricing. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream PTA maintenance schedules and gasoline profit seasonality [10]. - **PTA**: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down, and processing fees are still under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering mainstream device production cuts and polyester joint production cuts [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand improvement is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythms and开工 [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: The production reduction scale in August continues to exceed 20%, strengthening the support for processing fees. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering future bottle - chip production [10]. - **Propylene**: Weak propane suppresses it, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short - term, considering oil prices and domestic macro - factors [10]. - **PP**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has changed, and the PP price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Plastic**: Macro - support has weakened, and the plastic price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: It has returned to weak - reality pricing, and the futures price is declining in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot pressure is emerging, and the caustic - soda price is moving weakly. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Attention should be paid to the palm oil production in Malaysia. Recently, oils and fats are expected to move in a volatile consolidation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The market continues the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and domestic demand [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment continues to be weak. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and weather [10]. - **Live Pigs**: Inventory pressure persists, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is stabilizing following commodities. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The driving factors are unclear, and the futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [10]. - **Pulp**: It mainly follows the macro - trend. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price and the price difference between months have rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: Supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the sugar price is under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering imports [10]. - **Logs**: The bullish sentiment is strong, and the log futures price is rising with increasing positions. It is expected to decline in a volatile manner, considering shipment and dispatch volumes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged this year, with London spot silver prices exceeding $39 per ounce, marking a 13-year high, leading to increased sales of silver-related products [1] - In a silver jewelry wholesale store in Shanghai, silver prices have risen by 30% since the beginning of the year, with monthly shipments exceeding 10,000 pieces, particularly favored are "small weight" and "new Chinese style" silver products [3] - In Yongxing County, Hunan, which accounts for 25% of the national silver output, a "cultural tourism + silver" consumption model has been developed, significantly boosting local silver consumption during the summer tourism season [5] Group 2 - A local silver sales company in Hunan reports daily foot traffic ranging from 500 to 800 people, with two main sales categories experiencing growth: investment products like silver ingots and bars, and decorative items such as electroplated gold and cloisonné, with a year-on-year increase of over 20% [9] - The price of silver has increased from over 7 yuan per gram to 8.7 yuan per gram, reflecting the rising costs impacting consumer purchasing behavior [7]

【国际黄金，白银走势分析】 周一（8月4日）现货黄金高位震荡。上周五现货黄金价格飙升，主要不仅受美国非农数据爆冷，提振美 联储降息希望，还有新关税公告刺激避险需求推动。全球经济的不确定性、美元的疲软以及美联储降息 预期的升温，共同为黄金的上涨提供了强劲动能。 黄金技术分析：上周五黄金市场呈现出强势上涨态势：早盘开盘于3290美元/盎司后小幅回落，最低回 踩至3281一线低点后震荡上涨。美盘时段受非农数据影响强势拉升，黄金上涨2.02%，最高触及3363美 元/盎司，收盘也在此处。日线形成一根下影线较长的大阳线形态。 黄金日线级别：大阳构筑启明星形态，目前大周期处于5浪上行阶段；4小时级别：均线多头排列但有所 偏离，短期需回调修复后再延续上涨，下方短期关注3330-3345一线支撑。上方短期关注3388-3390一带 阻力。指标信号：MACD指标在零轴上方持续扩大，双线形成金叉状态，多头力量充足；RSI接近高位 区域，需警惕指标修复引发的短期回调。日内操作上钟亿金建议逢低做多逐步观察压力情况再寻找合适 机会做空即可！ 【钟亿金黄金白银投资理念】 1：我们有专业的团队，每一次建议都是多名分析师共同分析得出。 2： ...

【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银上涨接近37.5关键点，白银在36支撑做多，看涨至37.5，破位37.5后就可以是单边行情，白银需要看是震荡上 行，还是单边上行，上方站稳37.5就看38，38.5，甚至在白银的滞后性的情况下，可能会走出大涨空间。 今日周二(8月5日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于37.43一线下方，今日开盘于37.39美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银暂 报37.42美元/盎司，上涨0.02%，最高触及37.49美元/盎司，最低下探37.35美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏 向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 旧金山联储主席戴利表示，鉴于越来越多的证据表明就业市场正在疲软，且没有迹象显示关税通胀持续存在，降息时机 已经临近。戴利在谈到美联储上周决定时表示，"我愿意再等一个周期，但我不能永远等下去。"虽然这并不意味着9月 降息已成定局，但她说："我会倾向于认为，今后每次会议都是思考政策调整的即时会议。" 戴利称，年内进行两次25个基点的降息看起来仍然是一个适当的重新调整，重要的是是否在9月和12月都降息，而不是 降息是否会发生。戴利说，"如果通胀回升并蔓延，或者劳动力市场回暖，降息当然可以少于两次 ...

一、美元利率趋于宽松，贵金属板块整体受益 截至2025年8月，美联储已完成本年度首轮降息，联邦基金利率降至4.75%。随着通胀回落至目标区间附近，市场普遍预计下半年仍有一次降息的空间。货 币政策边际宽松意味着： | 以联系电话 | ◎联系地址 | 开盘 实时会价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 专注于金银铲铂铭钵钉回收精炼! | | | | 商品 | 回收 | 销售 | ■ | | | 2025-08-05 10:36 平泽回收行情 | | | | 黄金 | 779.09 | 781.13 | 780 | | | | | 776 | | 白银 | 8.49 | 8.66 | 8.1 8. | | 铂金 | 300.60 | 304.60 | 304 | | | | | 300 | | 把金 | 269.50 | 277.50 | 274 269 | | | | | . | | 粗佬 | 1300.00 | -- | - | | 粗錶 | 660.00 | i | 660 | | | | | 660 | | 粗钉 | | | 130 | | | 130.00 | -- | 1 ...

SLV白银ETF持仓15056.67吨，较前一交易日减少5.65吨； 8月1日延期补偿费支付方向：Ag(T+D)—多付空。 【要闻速递】 1.美国7月非农录得增长7.3万人，远低于预期的11万人；前两个月大幅下修25.8万个岗位，交易员完全 定价年底前美联诸降息两次。 北京时间周一(8月4日)亚盘时段，美元指数交投于98.91附近，现货白银今日开盘于36.99美元/盎司，目 前交投于36.68美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于8935元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于8962元/千克附近。今 日基本面关注美国6月工厂订单月率。 2.特朗普发表见解非农就业数据被操纵，目的是让我难堪，已指示团队立刻解雇劳工局局长。俄乌冲突 本不应发生，已下令将两艘核潜艇部署在相应区域以回应梅德韦杰夫的言论。如果鲍威尔还不降息，理 事会应该接管控制权。先扬言会毫不犹豫地解雇鲍威尔，后又称若解雇鲍威尔将扰乱市场，鲍威尔很可 能继续留任美联储主席。 3.关于关税加拿大贸易部长：预计总理卡尼和特朗普将在接下来的几天内进行会谈。达成降低部分关税 的协议是一种"选择"。 上周五(8月1日)美元指数下跌1.38%，收报98.68，现货白银收报37.0 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously long [1] - Silver: Stabilize and test long [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Resistance on rallies [1] - Tin: Resistance on rallies [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously long [1] 2. Core Views - The weak US data has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts and the risk of stagflation, leading to an inflow of safe - haven funds and a significant increase in gold prices. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [3][4]. - For copper, short - term supply - demand contradictions are due to seasonal factors and inventory pressure, while long - term contradictions lie in demand uncertainty and potential demand growth. After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded [8][9]. - Zinc supply is abundant, and demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to hold short positions and seize opportunities to short on rallies [10][12]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to downstream weakness and inventory accumulation [13][15]. - Nickel prices face pressure due to weak supply - demand and inventory accumulation, and stainless steel also faces over - supply in the off - season [17][19]. - Lithium carbonate inventory has decreased, and with potential supply risks and improved demand, it is recommended to go long on dips [21][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Weak US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the risk of stagflation reappeared. Safe - haven funds flowed in, causing a significant increase in gold prices [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts; "reciprocal tariffs" are about to take effect; global gold demand is growing strongly. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 770 for gold in the short term. For silver, it has fallen back to the previous range, and it is recommended to enter long positions after stabilization [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and fluctuated narrowly [8]. - **Industry Logic**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are related to seasonal factors and inventory pressure. Medium - term contradictions are the coexistence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. Long - term contradictions are between demand uncertainty and potential demand growth [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term and be bullish on copper in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai copper [77500, 79500] and LME copper [9650, 9850] [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuated weakly [11]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, processing fees are rising, and demand is weak during the off - season [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold previous short positions and take partial profits. Seize opportunities to short on rallies in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai zinc [21800, 22600] and LME zinc [2650, 2850] [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina also showed a downward trend [14]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs have decreased, inventory has increased, and downstream demand is weak. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000 - 20700] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then fell [18]. - **Industry Logic**: Nickel supply - demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless steel has over - supply issues in the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118000 - 121000] [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions for five consecutive days, with a significant decline in trading volume and a gain of over 1% [22]. - **Industry Logic**: The inventory has stopped increasing, and the supply - demand situation may improve. The compliance risk of mining licenses is a key factor [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are still expectations of supply speculation. It is recommended to go long on dips in the range of [68000 - 71500] [24].