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第三届链博会开幕 力拓携手中国宝武参展
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-07-16 06:16
Core Viewpoint - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo showcases collaboration between global mining giant Rio Tinto and China's largest steel producer, China Baowu Steel Group, focusing on innovative materials for the automotive industry and low-carbon solutions for electric vehicles [2][3][4]. Group 1: Company Collaborations - Rio Tinto and China Baowu are jointly presenting their latest iron ore project, the West Pit Iron Mine in Western Australia, which has a total investment of $2 billion and an annual production capacity of 25 million tons [3]. - The West Pit project is a continuation of the joint venture between Rio Tinto and China Baowu, with Rio Tinto holding a 54% stake and China Baowu holding 46% [3]. - The companies are also showcasing progress on the SimFer project in Guinea, with expected iron ore shipments starting in November 2025, and an estimated annual shipment volume of 500,000 to 1 million tons [3]. Group 2: Product Innovations - Rio Tinto is highlighting its innovative multi-material solutions, including iron, copper, aluminum, and lithium, which are essential for energy transition applications such as electric vehicles and energy storage systems [2]. - China Baowu is presenting its fifth-generation platform-based, integrated pure electric vehicle body solution, BCB EV® Meta, which aims to achieve lower carbon emissions while meeting higher safety standards for electric vehicles [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The CEO of Rio Tinto's China division emphasizes the importance of building a low-carbon, resilient, and inclusive supply chain, with China playing a crucial role in global manufacturing and low-carbon transition [4].
酒钢宏兴: 酒钢宏兴关于2024年年报问询函的回复公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-15 11:18
Core Viewpoint - Gansu Jiugang Group Hongxing Steel Co., Ltd. has received an inquiry letter from the Shanghai Stock Exchange regarding its 2024 annual report, focusing on significant increases in related party transactions and the need for detailed disclosures on these transactions [1]. Related Party Transactions - The company reported related party sales of CNY 32.2 billion, CNY 58 billion, and CNY 96.72 billion from 2022 to 2024, while related party purchases amounted to CNY 106.86 billion, CNY 137.85 billion, and CNY 196.99 billion during the same period, indicating substantial growth in both sales and purchases [1]. - The company engaged in transactions with related parties such as Huifeng Industrial Products, with sales totaling CNY 46.92 billion and purchases amounting to CNY 42.05 billion, highlighting simultaneous procurement and sales activities with similar transaction amounts [1]. - The inquiry letter requests detailed disclosures on related party transactions, including names, relationships, transaction content, background, amounts, settlement methods, credit policies, and pricing mechanisms, to assess the fairness of pricing and potential conflicts of interest [1]. Financial Performance and Market Comparison - The company is required to explain the reasons and rationality behind the significant increase in related party transaction amounts and proportions over the past three years, considering industry developments, operational performance, and competitive market conditions [1]. - The company must provide a comparison of related party transaction pricing with market prices and non-related party transactions to ensure fair pricing practices [1]. Transaction Pricing Mechanisms - The company employs market-based pricing for its products, with specific pricing strategies for steel, raw materials, and energy products, ensuring that prices reflect market conditions and competitive dynamics [3][4]. - Pricing for steel products is determined based on regional market prices, production costs, inventory levels, and demand-supply conditions, with adjustments made according to market fluctuations [3][4].
南京钢铁股份有限公司关于为控股子公司提供担保的进展公告
Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company has announced new guarantees for its subsidiaries to support their credit needs, ensuring business continuity and stability in operations [1]. Group 1: Guarantee Details - The company’s subsidiary, Henan Nanjing Steel Helix New Materials Co., Ltd., signed a maximum guarantee contract with China Construction Bank for a principal amount of 35.7 million yuan [1]. - The company also signed a maximum guarantee contract with Jiangsu Bank for a principal amount of 48 million USD for its subsidiary, Jinxin New Energy [1]. - The total new guarantee amount for Henan Nanjing Steel in 2025 is 56.1 million yuan, with an available guarantee amount of 17.05 million yuan [1]. - The total new guarantee amount for Jinxin New Energy in 2025 is 972.28 million yuan, with an available guarantee amount of 467.72 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Internal Decision-Making Process - The company’s board approved the guarantee proposals during meetings held on December 26, 2024, and January 22, 2025, allowing for a maximum guarantee of 73.15 million yuan for Henan Nanjing Steel and 1.44 billion yuan for Jinxin New Energy in 2025 [1]. Group 3: Necessity and Reasonableness of Guarantees - The guarantees are deemed necessary to meet the operational needs of the subsidiaries and are expected to support their stable development [7]. - The company has established strict credit review and corresponding security measures to ensure that these guarantees do not adversely affect its normal operations or financial status [7]. Group 4: Cumulative Guarantee Situation - As of the announcement date, the total external guarantees provided by the company and its subsidiaries amount to 10.281 billion yuan, with guarantees to subsidiaries totaling 7.683 billion yuan, representing 39.50% and 29.52% of the company's latest audited net assets, respectively [7]. - The company has not provided guarantees to controlling shareholders or related parties, and there are no overdue guarantees [7].
徐曙海在现场推进生态环保重点工作时强调 扎实推动生态环境质量持续改善 以高水平保护支撑高质量发展
Zhen Jiang Ri Bao· 2025-07-14 23:15
Group 1 - The mayor emphasizes the importance of ecological protection and the need to implement Xi Jinping's ecological civilization thought, focusing on improving ecological environment quality to support high-quality development [1][3] - The local government and relevant departments are tasked with accelerating the rectification of ecological issues, including the management of wastewater and river quality, to ensure timely detection and resolution of water environment problems [1][2] - The mayor highlights the significance of the Su Nan Canal as a critical flood control channel and calls for enhanced environmental supervision during flood seasons, as well as the establishment of long-term mechanisms for pollution prevention and control [2][3] Group 2 - The mayor inspects the progress of the ultra-low emission transformation at Danyang Longjiang Steel Co., urging the company to optimize processes while ensuring quality and safety [2] - Local government and departments are encouraged to support enterprises in technological innovation and green low-carbon transformation to promote high-quality development [2][3] - Continuous efforts are required to address issues raised by central ecological environment protection inspections and to enhance the modernization of ecological governance [3]
包钢股份攻克复杂原料冶炼难关,高品质工业纯铁技术跻身行业第一梯队
Nei Meng Gu Ri Bao· 2025-07-14 12:51
"技术团队利用近一年时间把钢中锰、硫含量通过技术迭代进一步降低,高品质新牌号工业纯铁成功下 线助力包钢在该领域跻身第一梯队。"7月14日,记者采访包钢稀土钢板材厂炼钢作业部区域技术主管李 志成时他介绍说,按照碳含量不同,铁被分为生铁、钢和工业纯铁,碳含量低于0.0218%的铁被称为工 业纯铁。而纯净度更胜一筹的高纯工业纯铁具有优异的软磁性能、耐腐蚀性能、延展性能、热性能和导 电性能等等。可以作为制备稀土永磁材料、非晶材料以及高温合金的关键原材料,能广泛应用于航空、 航天、电子、能源、半导体等产业,市场前景和经济效益远高于普通工业纯铁。 包钢股份 工业高炉生产现场。(资料图) 转自:草原云 这几天,一批高品质新牌号工业纯铁在包钢集团稀土钢板材厂下线。这是该厂首次成功实现高品质新牌 号工业纯铁超低磷、超低锰、超低硫生产,标志着包钢股份工业纯铁生产技术达到了行业先进水平。 编校:莎日娜 包钢稀土 钢板材厂技术团队人员正在操作。(资料图) 但由于矿的来料成分复杂,一直以来包钢股份在工业纯铁纯净度控制方面面临诸多难题,此前只能生产 普通工业纯铁。面对生产技术壁垒,包钢稀土钢板材厂技术团队从低牌号产品开始逐步积累数据、分 ...
国泰君安期货所长早读-20250714
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 07:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, both China and the US will release a series of important economic data. In the US, the June CPI and PPI data, as well as the July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value, are highly noteworthy. Economists expect the June CPI to rise 2.7% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.4%, and the core CPI to rise 3% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in July are less than 7%, but an unexpected inflation data may force the Fed to act. In China, the June import and export data, June M2 year - on - year, January - June new RMB loans, and social financing scale increment are all important [8]. - The stock index futures are in a long - position pattern. Last week, the market continued to rise due to expectations of supply - side reform and rumors of the restart of shantytown renovation. The current policy focus on the supply side is conducive to the repair of price indicators and has a positive impact on corporate profits. As long as there is no unexpected negative news, the long - position pattern is expected to continue. However, the trend may be reversed by external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment [9]. - For various commodities, different trends are predicted, such as gold showing an upward trend in a volatile manner, silver breaking through and rising, and copper prices being under pressure due to weak spot markets [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US and China Economic Data Focus - **US Data**: The June CPI and PPI data are crucial. Economists expect the June CPI to rise 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI to rise 3% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value also deserves attention. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in July are less than 7%, but lower - than - expected inflation data may lead to an emergency rate cut [8]. - **China Data**: The June import and export data, June M2 year - on - year, January - June new RMB loans, and social financing scale increment are all worthy of high attention [8]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The current market is in a long - position pattern. The core changes last week came from expectations of supply - side reform and rumors of shantytown renovation restart, leading to a joint upward movement of cyclical and growth stocks. The policy focus on the supply side is beneficial for price indicator repair and corporate profit improvement. Without unexpected negative news, the long - position pattern is likely to continue. The trend may be reversed by external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment. This week, the release of domestic economic data and the impact of mid - year report earnings announcements on growth - style stocks should be monitored [9][10]. 3.3 Commodity Market 3.3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold is expected to rise in a volatile manner, and silver is expected to break through and rise. The trend strength of both is 1 [13][19][21]. 3.3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot market is weak, and prices are under pressure. The trend strength is 0 [13][23][25]. - **Zinc**: It is bearish in the medium - term, with a trend strength of - 1 [13][26][27]. - **Lead**: Supported by peak - season expectations, the trend strength is 0 [13][29]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of 0 [13][31][34]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory is low, and the virtual - to - real ratio is high. Alumina requires attention to the inventory accumulation amplitude, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of all three is 0 [13][36][38]. - **Nickel**: The support from the ore end is loosening, and global refined nickel is marginally accumulating inventory. Stainless steel prices are oscillating due to the game between reality and macro factors. The trend strength of both is 0 [13][39][44]. 3.3.3 Energy - related Commodities - **Coke**: A first - round price increase has started, and it is expected to be strong in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 0 [13][66][68]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, it is expected to be strong in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 1 [13][66][68]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and the price is stabilizing in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 0 [13][69][71]. 3.3.4 Other Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse - receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [13][45][48]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side. The trend strength is 1. Polysilicon is affected by policy disturbances, with increased market volatility, and the trend strength is 0 [13][49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it is expected to be strong in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 0 [13][52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The sector sentiment remains strong, and prices are oscillating in a wide range. The trend strength of both is 1 [13][55][60]. - **Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Both are expected to oscillate in a wide range, with a trend strength of 0 for both [13][61][64].
百亿煤炭巨头入局,前陕西首富李黑记的商业帝国迎来“接盘人”
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-14 00:43
Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the substantial merger restructuring of Bin County Coal Company with Dongling Group and 42 other companies marks a significant turnaround for Dongling Group, which has faced severe financial difficulties and bankruptcy proceedings [1][10]. Group 1: Dongling Group Overview - Dongling Group, once a benchmark for private enterprises in Shaanxi, has over 100 subsidiaries, total assets nearing 40 billion, and approximately 18,000 employees, with a revenue of 125.7 billion in 2023, ranking 205th in China's top 500 companies [2]. - The group has diversified operations including steel, zinc smelting, mineral energy, and trade services, and has a history of rapid growth through acquisitions of struggling state-owned enterprises [3][4]. - Dongling Group's revenue peaked at 1260.28 billion in 2019, but net profit plummeted to 7.66 billion, down from 15.9 billion in 2018, indicating a significant decline in profitability [5][6]. Group 2: Leadership Transition and Challenges - The transition of leadership to Li Lei, son of founder Li Heiji, began in 2019, coinciding with a decline in financial performance, raising concerns about the effectiveness of the new leadership [6][7]. - Li Lei's strategies included organizational restructuring and digital transformation, but the results have been disappointing, with rumors suggesting that his overseas trading activities contributed to the financial crisis [6][9]. Group 3: Market Context and Economic Factors - The economic environment has been challenging, with the COVID-19 pandemic, declining real estate markets, and falling prices in steel and zinc impacting Dongling Group's core businesses [8][9]. - By mid-2024, Dongling Group's debt crisis became critical, leading to formal bankruptcy restructuring proceedings initiated by creditors [9]. Group 4: Restructuring and Future Prospects - The merger with Bin County Coal Company, which has total assets of 30.6 billion and ranks 403rd in China's top 500 companies, is seen as a strategic move to consolidate resources and enhance operational capabilities [10][11]. - The restructuring is expected to create a more integrated coal-steel value chain, potentially increasing Bin County Coal's annual revenue to over 100 billion, positioning it as a major player in the energy sector [11][12]. - The success of this restructuring will depend on effectively managing Dongling Group's complex governance structure and asset distribution [13].
总编有约·“两高四着力”调研行丨在周口港,感受大市场
He Nan Ri Bao· 2025-07-13 23:21
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the urgent need to accelerate the construction of a unified national market, highlighting the strategic importance of the Zhoukou Port in enhancing logistics and trade connectivity in the region [1] Group 1: Zhoukou Port Development - Zhoukou Port has become the largest and most capable inland port in Henan and the Huai River basin, with a cargo throughput of 27.5 million tons in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.5% [11] - By 2024, the port's cargo volume is expected to exceed 50 million tons, accounting for 87% of the province's inland cargo volume, with container throughput reaching 163,000 TEUs, a growth of over 50% compared to the previous year [12] - The port operates 18 domestic container shipping routes and 14 international container shipping routes, connecting over 20 countries and more than 10 provinces in China [12] Group 2: Economic Impact - The low-cost advantages of water transportation are transforming into core competitive strengths for local enterprises, with transportation costs significantly lower than rail [7] - Major companies, including Yihai Kerry and Henan Steel Group, are benefiting from reduced logistics costs, enhancing their profitability and operational efficiency [7] - The development of the port is fostering a cluster of industries, including grain processing, steel logistics, and equipment manufacturing, contributing to the regional economic growth [7] Group 3: Strategic Opportunities - Zhoukou Port is positioned as a critical node in the national unified market construction, leveraging the dual strategic opportunities presented by national policies and local initiatives to enhance inland waterway development [6] - The ongoing construction of the Zhoukou Port Central Operation Area aims to expand its capacity and efficiency, with plans for 22 berths capable of accommodating 2,000-ton vessels [9] - The integration of rail and port facilities is expected to enhance the logistics network, breaking the geographical limitations of Henan province and facilitating greater access to international markets [9][10]
热轧卷板市场周报:炉料走高成本支撑,热卷期价强势上涨-20250711
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 10:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The HC2510 contract of hot-rolled coil futures has risen, with cost support from the upward movement of iron ore and coking coal. Although the weekly output of hot-rolled coils has slightly declined, the capacity utilization rate remains relatively high. The apparent demand has slightly decreased but remains at a high level. The overall inventory has increased slightly, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. Considering the macro - economic situation and industry fundamentals, while chasing high prices of the HC2510 contract requires caution, buying on dips can still be considered, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary a. Market Review - As of July 11, the closing price of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract was 3273 yuan/ton (+72), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coil was 3330 yuan/ton (+50). The weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 323.14 million tons (-5), the apparent demand was 322.51 million tons (-1.86, -6.24% year - on - year), the total inventory was 345.56 million tons (+0.63, -78.56 million tons year - on - year), and the profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from last week and 22.94 percentage points from last year [7] b. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the global manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising for two consecutive months. The US President Trump extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period. Domestically, 33 construction companies issued an "anti - involution" initiative, and the State Council issued a notice to support stable employment. - **Supply - demand aspect**: The weekly output of hot - rolled coils slightly declined, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.55%. The factory inventory decreased and the social inventory increased, with a total inventory increase of 0.63 million tons. The apparent demand slightly declined but remained above 3.2 million tons. - **Cost aspect**: Iron ore and coking coal prices rose, providing cost support. The port inventory of iron ore decreased, and the coking coal inventory of mines and coal washing plants continued to decline. - **Technical aspect**: The HC2510 contract moved upward, with the daily K - line standing above multiple moving averages. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA continued to rise, and the red bars expanded. - **Strategy suggestion**: On the macro - level, anti - involution promotes the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity and improves market sentiment. On the industrial level, the output of hot - rolled coils remains high, the terminal demand is resilient, and the cost support from the rebound of coking coal and iron ore is strengthened. Chasing high prices of the HC2510 contract requires caution, and buying on dips can still be considered [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Price - This week, the HC2510 contract moved upward and was stronger than the HC2601 contract. On July 11, the price difference was - 7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [15] b. Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On July 11, the warehouse receipt volume of hot - rolled coils on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,587 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0 tons. The net position of the top 20 in the hot - rolled coil futures contract was a net short position of 10,042 lots, an increase of 51,561 lots from the previous week [21] c. Spot Price - On July 11, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 33,309 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 43 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price. On July 11, the basis was 57 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22 yuan/ton [25] 3. Upstream Market a. Raw Material Prices - On July 11, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [34] b. Shipping and Arrival Volumes - From June 30 to July 6, 2025, the total global iron ore shipping volume was 29.949 billion tons, a decrease of 3.627 billion tons from the previous period. The total shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 24.65 billion tons, a decrease of 4.173 billion tons from the previous period. The total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 25.355 billion tons, an increase of 1.22 billion tons from the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 24.839 billion tons, an increase of 1.209 billion tons from the previous period; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.12 billion tons, an increase of 1.948 billion tons from the previous period [39] c. Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 143.4689 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3901 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.378 million tons, an increase of 0.0361 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore decreased by 0.931 million tons, the inventory of Brazilian ore decreased by 0.5229 million tons, and the inventory of traded ore decreased by 0.7715 million tons. On July 10, the inventory of steel billets in Tangshan, Hebei was 975,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 101,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 67,100 tons [43] d. Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.72%, a decrease of 0.48%. The daily coke output was 512,900 tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons; the coke inventory was 595,800 tons, a decrease of 20,200 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 7.5244 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons; and the available days of coking coal were 11.0 days, an increase of 0.6 days [47] 4. Industry Conditions a. Supply Side - **Production Volume**: In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to May, the cumulative crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In May, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, an increase of 116,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. From January to May, the cumulative steel export volume was 48.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. In May, China imported 481,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9%. From January to May, the cumulative steel import volume was 2.553 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [50] - **Blast Furnace Operation**: On July 11, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.65 percentage points from last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points from last year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3981 million tons, a decrease of 104,000 tons from last week and an increase of 152,000 tons from last year. On July 10, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils from 37 monitored enterprises was 3.2314 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from last week and a decrease of 83,400 tons from last year [53] - **Inventory**: On July 11, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils from 37 monitored enterprises was 778,100 tons, a decrease of 510 tons from last week and a decrease of 147,700 tons from last year. The social inventory in 33 major cities was 2.6775 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 637,900 tons. The total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.4556 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 785,600 tons [58] b. Downstream Demand - **Automobile Industry**: In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2% respectively. From January to May, the cumulative automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% respectively [61] - **Household Appliance Industry**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%; the production of household refrigerators was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%; and the production of household washing machines was 49.115 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [61]
需求进入淡季,沪钢涨势放缓
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-10 00:38
Core Viewpoint - The recent emphasis on advancing the national unified market construction and regulating low-price disorderly competition is expected to enhance market expectations for supply-side reforms, leading to a rebound in rebar futures prices, although the upward momentum may slow as market sentiment stabilizes and fundamentals take precedence [1] Group 1: Supply Side Dynamics - There is an increasing expectation in the market for steel mills to reduce production, particularly in light of the recent "anti-involution" meeting and potential production restrictions in Tangshan from July 4-15 [2] - The current steel industry situation is significantly different from 2016, with this year's steelmaking profits reaching the highest level in three years, and the total profit for the black metal smelting and rolling industry from January to May turning profitable at 31.6 billion yuan [2] - Despite the high profits in steelmaking, the willingness of steel mills to actively reduce production remains low, and the overall impact of the Tangshan production restrictions is expected to be limited [2] Group 2: Demand Pressure - The market anticipates a decline in rebar demand as the end-user demand enters a low season, although recent consumption has shown resilience with a weekly apparent consumption of 2.2487 million tons, slightly exceeding market expectations [3] - The total inventory of rebar has seen a slight decrease of 37,900 tons, maintaining a total of 5.4521 million tons, indicating that the turning point for inventory accumulation has not yet appeared [3] - The ongoing adjustment cycle in the real estate sector and suboptimal infrastructure funding are expected to continue to suppress rebar demand, with high temperatures and rainy weather in July further limiting demand improvement [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - Overall, the rebar market is expected to enter a phase of weak supply and demand as the low season deepens, with limited upward potential until new macroeconomic benefits emerge, particularly around the pressure level of 3,100 yuan per ton [4]