Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Aluminum - After the National Day holiday, the short - term price of alumina is expected to be weak, with the main contract operating in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. The focus of the game in the fourth quarter is the production cut intensity of enterprises after profit decline. [1] - The price of aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton. [3] Zinc - The price of LME zinc remained strong during the National Day holiday. The domestic supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the demand has no unexpected performance. The performance of SHFE zinc will continue to be under pressure. [5] Copper - During the National Day holiday, the overseas copper price continued to rise. The weak US dollar and supply shortage are the important drivers. In the medium - and long - term, the supply shortage of copper ore will solidly support the bottom of the copper price, and the main support is at 84000 - 85000. [7] Tin - The tin price is expected to continue the strong shock. Attention should be paid to the demand performance in "Golden September and Silver October" and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter. [9] Lithium Carbonate - The short - term disk of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the main price center of reference in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton. [11] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel disk is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with the main operating range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton. [13] Nickel - The nickel disk is expected to maintain a range - bound shock, with the main reference range of 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton. [14] Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20720 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous value; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 20 yuan/ton. [1] - The import profit and loss of aluminum is - 1687 yuan/ton, down 49.4 from the previous value; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.77, down 0.01 from the previous value. [1] Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina output was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. [1] - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum is 59.20 million tons, down 7.21% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 50.6 million tons, up 0.21% day - on - day. [1] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 and related products remained unchanged. The refined - scrap price difference of some aluminum products increased. [3] Fundamental Data - In August, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month. [3] - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 5.57 million tons, up 0.72% week - on - week. [3] Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 21830 yuan/ton, up 0.92% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 4225 yuan/ton, down 796.03 from the previous value. [5] Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc output was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month; in August, the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month. [5] - The social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots in seven places is 14.14 million tons, down 9.94% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 3.8 million tons, up 0.13% day - on - day. [5] Copper Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 83240 yuan/ton, up 1.25% from the previous value; the refined - scrap price difference is 3149 yuan/ton, up 13.65% from the previous value. [7] Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper output was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month; in August, the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. [7] - The domestic social inventory of copper is 14.83 million tons, up 2.63% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 14.34 million tons, down 0.35% day - on - day. [7] Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin is 277200 yuan/ton, up 2.14% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 19477.39 yuan/ton, down 22.88% from the previous value. [9] Fundamental Data - In August, the tin ore import volume was 10267 tons, down 0.11% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output in September was 10510 tons, down 31.71% from the previous value. [9] - The SHEF inventory of tin is 6559.0 tons, down 1.98% week - on - week; the social inventory is 7890.0 tons, down 6.66% week - on - week. [9] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. [11] Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate output was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month. [11] - The total inventory of lithium carbonate in August was 94177 tons, down 3.75% month - on - month. [11] Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The spot - futures price difference increased by 6.52%. [13] Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month. [13] - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 47.74 million tons, up 1.13% week - on - week; the SHFE warehouse receipt is 8.70 million tons, down 0.21% day - on - day. [13] Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 122450 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous value; the futures import profit and loss is - 1076 yuan/ton, up 471 from the previous value. [14] Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese refined nickel products is 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume of refined nickel is 17536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month. [14] - The SHFE inventory is 29834 tons, up 8.49% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 231312 tons, up 0.52% day - on - day. [14]

Core Points - The Argentine government has temporarily eliminated export taxes on aluminum, steel, and their derivatives, effective until the end of 2025 [1] - This exemption applies to metal products exported to countries that previously imposed at least 45% import tariffs on such goods [1] - The decision aims to enhance export capacity and improve the competitiveness of the domestic production sector, reflecting Argentina's intention to adopt a more open trade policy [1] Summary by Category Export Policy - The export tax exemption is valid until December 31, 2025, or until the relevant countries reduce their tariffs below 45%, whichever comes first [1] - This measure follows a previous temporary cancellation of export taxes on soybeans, corn, wheat, and their by-products in September, which aimed to accelerate overseas sales and stabilize the weakening peso [1] Economic Impact - The government emphasizes that the decision is part of a broader strategy to boost exports and attract foreign currency [1] - The earlier measure on agricultural products was short-lived, lasting less than a week, indicating potential volatility in trade policy [1]

c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 n We delay our bearish aluminium price forecast, now expecting the LME price to decline from $2,700/t currently to a low of $2,350/t in Q4 2026 (vs. prior forecast low of $2,100/t in March 2026). n Our expectations of slowing demand growth and cost deflation are playing out, and the market turned to a modest surplus in Q3. However, we expect still relatively low visible inventory, US Fed rate cuts, and a higher copper price to keep aluminium prices supported through to the e ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum experienced a decline of 0.43% in stock price on September 30, with a trading volume of 438 million yuan, indicating a challenging market environment for the company [1] Financing Summary - On September 30, Tianshan Aluminum had a financing buy-in amount of 31.68 million yuan and a financing repayment of 69.64 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 37.95 million yuan [1] - The total financing and securities balance for Tianshan Aluminum reached 455 million yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 0.81% of the circulating market value, which is below the 10% percentile level over the past year, indicating a low financing level [1] - In terms of securities lending, Tianshan Aluminum had a repayment of 108,700 shares and a sell-out of 1,600 shares on September 30, with a sell-out amount of 18,500 yuan, while the securities lending balance was 17.46 million yuan, exceeding the 90% percentile level over the past year, indicating a high level of securities lending [1] Business Performance - As of June 30, Tianshan Aluminum reported a total of 49,700 shareholders, an increase of 4.44% from the previous period, with an average of 83,175 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 4.25% [2] - For the first half of 2025, Tianshan Aluminum achieved an operating income of 15.328 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.084 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.51% year-on-year [2] Dividend and Shareholding Information - Tianshan Aluminum has cumulatively distributed dividends of 6.562 billion yuan since its A-share listing, with a total of 3.463 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the seventh-largest circulating shareholder of Tianshan Aluminum, holding 113 million shares, which is a decrease of 10.084 million shares compared to the previous period [3]

Core Insights - Concerns over an "AI investment bubble" have intensified, but NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang reassured the market, leading to significant gains in AI-related stocks and pushing the NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices to new historical highs [1][3] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.58% to close at 6753.72 points, while the NASDAQ composite index increased by 1.12% to 23043.38 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained flat at 46601.78 points [1] - NVIDIA's stock increased by over 2%, reaching a record closing high. AMD surged by 11.37%, marking a 45% increase over the first six trading days of October. Dell, which raised its financial guidance for the next four years, saw its stock rise by over 9% [3] AI Market Dynamics - Huang noted a significant increase in demand for computing power as AI models evolve from answering simple questions to complex reasoning. He emphasized that the market is experiencing two exponential growth phases simultaneously [3] - Dan Ives, a prominent Wall Street tech analyst, expressed optimism about the performance of large tech stocks in the upcoming earnings season, highlighting a potential $3 trillion spending wave on AI technology and applications over the next three years [4] Chinese Stocks and Commodities - The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.87%, with notable performances from various Chinese companies, including NIO and Pinduoduo [5] - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4000 per ounce, driven by investor concerns over the dollar's credibility, while silver and palladium also saw significant price increases [5] Corporate Developments - NVIDIA confirmed its investment in Elon Musk's startup xAI, contributing $2 billion to a funding round that raised a total of $20 billion [8] - SoftBank Group announced the acquisition of ABB Group's robotics business for $5.375 billion, abandoning plans to spin off the unit into a separate public company [9] - AST SpaceMobile's stock rose by 8.63% following a commercial agreement with Verizon to provide satellite-based cellular network services starting in 2026 [10]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that LME aluminum prices will decline from the current $2,700 per ton to a low of $2,350 per ton by Q4 2026, although this low point is higher than the previous forecast of $2,100 per ton in March 2026 [1] Group 1: Price Forecast - The aluminum price is expected to continue its downward trend due to an increase in market surplus, expanding from 400,000 tons in 2025 to 1.5 to 2 million tons in 2026-2027 [1] - The anticipated low price of $2,350 per ton by Q4 2026 indicates a significant decline in the market [1] Group 2: Supply Factors - Increased production from Indonesia is expected to limit the upward potential for aluminum prices [1] - It is projected that aluminum prices will not recover to $2,650 per ton before 2030 [1]

Core Viewpoint - A fire at Novelis, a subsidiary of Hindalco Industries, has severely damaged hot rolling mills, potentially disrupting aluminum supply for U.S. automakers, including Ford, for several months [1] Group 1: Impact on Ford - The fire at the Oswego aluminum plant may lead to production interruptions for Ford and other automakers for months [1] - Ford is the largest customer of Novelis, which supplies approximately 40% of the aluminum sheets used in the U.S. automotive industry [1] - Ford is working closely with Novelis to explore alternative solutions to mitigate potential disruptions and may address the financial or production impacts in its upcoming earnings report [1] Group 2: Responses from Other Automakers - Toyota has initiated collaboration with other aluminum suppliers, stating that while the situation is not fully resolved, it is manageable [1] - Stellantis is actively taking measures to alleviate the impact of the supply disruption [1] - Hyundai has confirmed that its production has not been directly affected by the fire [1] Group 3: Novelis' Response - Novelis has turned to overseas plants and is collaborating with industry peers to source raw materials in response to the supply gap [1] - The 50% tariff on certain imported aluminum materials in the U.S. may complicate supply chain adjustments for Novelis [1]

Core Insights - A significant fire at Novelis' plant in Oswego, New York, has completely destroyed key production areas, leading to an expected shutdown until early next year [2] - The Oswego plant supplies approximately 40% of aluminum sheet materials to the U.S. automotive industry, making it a crucial supplier for companies like Ford [2] - The incident is anticipated to cause substantial delays in the production of certain vehicle models for Ford and other automakers, with impacts expected to last for several months [2]

格隆汇10月6日丨根据联交所最新权益披露资料显示，2025年9月30日，中国铝业(02600.HK)获中信证券资产管理有限公司在场内以每股均价8.0536港元增持 1010.6万股，涉资约8138.97万港元。 | 表格序號 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名稱 作出披露的 買入 / 費出或涉及的股 每股的平均價 | | | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的 有關事件的日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 份數目 | | | (請參閱上述 * 註解)有投票權股 (日 / 月 / 年 | | | | | | | | | 份自分比 | | | | | | | | | ( %) | | | CS20251001E00006 | 中信证券资产管理有限公司 | 1101(L) | | 10,106,000(L) | HKD 8.0536 | 435.562.000(L) | 11.04(L)30/09/2025 | 增持后，中信证券资产管理有限公司最新持股数目为435,562,000股，持股比例由10.79%上升至11.04% ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong province is a dominant player in China's aluminum industry, with a projected alumina production of 29.6 million tons in 2024, accounting for over 20% of global output, supported by a well-established industrial chain and strategic resource management [1][6][8]. Group 1: Production and Capacity - In 2024, Shandong's alumina production is expected to reach 29.6 million tons, significantly surpassing Shanxi's 20.33 million tons, solidifying its leading position in China [6]. - Shandong's aluminum material production is projected at 14.69 million tons, with electrolytic aluminum at 9 million tons, representing over 20% of the national total of 67.83 million tons [3][6]. - The province's electrolytic aluminum capacity is being optimized, with a reduction from approximately 12 million tons in 2018 to an expected 4 million tons by 2025, allowing for a focus on high-end production [3][6]. Group 2: Resource Management - Shandong relies heavily on imported bauxite, with Yantai Port expected to import over 50 million tons in 2024, maintaining its status as the world's largest importer [4][14]. - The efficiency of Yantai Port is highlighted by its record of unloading 290,000 tons per ship, ensuring a steady supply of raw materials for local production [4][14]. Group 3: Industry Structure and Key Players - The industry is characterized by three major players: Weiqiao, Xinfeng, and Nanshan, collectively accounting for over 50% of national production [10][12]. - Weiqiao, with a projected revenue of 73.5 billion yuan and a net profit of 10 billion yuan in 2024, has established itself as a global aluminum giant through a full industrial chain approach [10][12]. - Nanshan focuses on high-end products, supplying major aerospace companies and achieving a net profit of 1.7 billion yuan in Q1 2024, reflecting significant growth [10][12]. Group 4: Environmental and Policy Initiatives - Shandong is actively responding to national energy-saving and emission reduction policies, with a target of 25% clean energy usage in electrolytic aluminum production by 2025 [6][15]. - The province is also focusing on optimizing existing production capacity rather than adding new capacity, with a significant portion of production now meeting energy efficiency benchmarks [6][15]. Group 5: Global Influence and Future Outlook - Shandong's aluminum industry is not only significant in domestic production but also plays a crucial role in global supply chains, with alumina exports and bauxite imports facilitating international trade [8][15]. - The province is expected to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand, with a target of 130 million tons of aluminum capacity by 2025, positioning itself as a benchmark in the global aluminum market [17].