Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments released measures to expand service consumption, proposing 19 initiatives across five areas, including promoting "service consumption seasons" and optimizing operating hours for popular cultural venues and scenic spots [1] - The Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced that China's grain production is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin in 2024, with per capita grain availability reaching 500 kg, ensuring national food security [1] - The Minister also highlighted significant progress in agricultural modernization during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with over 100 million acres of high-standard farmland built and a contribution rate of agricultural technology advancement reaching 63.2% [1] Industry News - The China Automobile Industry Association called for domestic and foreign companies to enhance technological innovation and industry chain collaboration, emphasizing the need for an open and fair international market environment for sustainable development in the automotive sector [2] - The association urged further cooperation in electrification and intelligence to promote the global automotive industry's green, safe, and high-quality development [2] International News - The World Trade Organization's special meeting on the Fisheries Subsidies Agreement saw four member countries submit their ratifications, bringing the total to the required number for the agreement to take effect [6] - The Bank of Thailand's governor stated that monetary policy has been adjusted to provide a more accommodative environment amid sluggish economic growth, with measures taken to address fluctuations in the Thai baht [6]

Core Points - The press conference held by the State Council Information Office on September 16 focused on the progress in agricultural and rural development under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Agricultural Production - Grain production has reached a new level, indicating significant advancements in agricultural output [1] Group 2: Agricultural Modernization - Important progress has been made in agricultural modernization, reflecting improvements in technology and practices within the sector [4] Group 3: Farmers' Income - The income levels of farmers have continued to rise, showcasing economic benefits for rural populations [8] Group 4: Rural Development - Rural development has been revitalized, leading to enhanced vitality in rural areas [10]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural and rural development in China has shown steady progress during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, significantly contributing to the high-quality development of the overall economy and society [1][2]. Group 1: Achievements in Agricultural Development - The grain production in China is projected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin in 2024, an increase of 74 billion jin compared to 2020, ensuring food security for 1.4 billion people with a per capita grain availability of 500 kg [1]. - The poverty alleviation efforts have successfully identified and assisted over 6 million monitoring subjects, effectively eliminating the risk of returning to poverty, with over 30 million people employed in recent years [1]. - Significant advancements in agricultural modernization have been made, with over 100 million acres of high-standard farmland established, a contribution rate of agricultural technology progress reaching 63.2% by the end of 2024, and a mechanization rate of over 75% for crop farming [1]. Group 2: Rural Development and Income Growth - The construction of livable and workable beautiful villages has seen new achievements, with the revenue of large-scale agricultural processing enterprises reaching approximately 1.8 trillion yuan in 2024, and the average coverage of sanitary toilets in rural areas reaching about 76% [2]. - The income level of farmers has continued to rise, with the per capita disposable income of rural residents reaching 23,119 yuan in 2024, and the income ratio between urban and rural residents decreasing from 2.56:1 in 2020 to 2.34:1 [2]. - The vitality of rural development has been revitalized, with over 2 million farmer cooperatives and nearly 4 million family farms established, and the area served by agricultural social services exceeding 2.29 billion acres in 2024 [2].

Industry Overview Upstream - PTA and urea prices in the chemical industry have declined [2] - Egg prices in the agricultural industry have continued to rise [2] Midstream - The PX operating rate in the chemical industry has increased [3] - Coal consumption in power plants in the energy industry has increased [3] Downstream - There has been a slight improvement in the sales of commercial housing in first-tier cities in the real estate industry [4] - The number of international flights in the service industry has continued to decline [4] Key Industry Indicators (as of September 15) Agriculture - Corn spot price: 2300 yuan/ton, -0.31% year-on-year [38] - Egg spot price: 7.7 yuan/kg, 11.30% year-on-year [38] - Palm oil spot price: 9400 yuan/ton, -0.57% year-on-year [38] - Cotton spot price: 15255.7 yuan/ton, -1.05% year-on-year [38] - Average pork wholesale price: 19.9 yuan/kg, -1.09% year-on-year [38] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper spot price: 81000 yuan/ton, 1.39% year-on-year [38] - Zinc spot price: 22212 yuan/ton, 0.38% year-on-year [38] - Aluminum spot price: 21056.7 yuan/ton, 1.84% year-on-year [38] - Nickel spot price: 123533.3 yuan/ton, 0.97% year-on-year [38] Black Metals - Iron ore spot price: 808 yuan/ton, 1.58% year-on-year [38] - Wire rod spot price: 3315 yuan/ton, 0.08% year-on-year [38] - Glass spot price: 14 yuan/square meter, 0.00% year-on-year [38] Others - Natural rubber spot price: 15133.3 yuan/ton, -1.84% year-on-year [38] - China Plastic City price index: 794, -0.49% year-on-year [38] - WTI crude oil spot price: 62.7 dollars/barrel, 1.33% year-on-year [38] - Brent crude oil spot price: 67 dollars/barrel, 2.27% year-on-year [38] - Liquefied natural gas spot price: 3876 yuan/ton, -0.56% year-on-year [38] - Coal price: 775 yuan/ton, -0.51% year-on-year [38] - PTA spot price: 4631.7 yuan/ton, -1.87% year-on-year [38] - Polyethylene spot price: 7380 yuan/ton, -0.07% year-on-year [38] - Urea spot price: 1665 yuan/ton, 2.27% year-on-year [38] - Soda ash spot price: 1262.5 yuan/ton, 0.00% year-on-year [38] - National cement price index: 130.9, 0.75% year-on-year [38] - Real estate building materials composite index: 113.2 points, 0.09% year-on-year [38] - National concrete price index: 92.1 points, -0.86% year-on-year [38] Industry Events Production Industry - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers issued an initiative to standardize the payment of accounts payable by vehicle manufacturers to suppliers, and many car companies responded positively [1] Service Industry - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a notice to deepen the reform of cross-border investment and financing foreign exchange management and improve cross-border investment and financing convenience [1]

Group 1 - The core objective during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is to build a strong agricultural nation, with a focus on rural revitalization and steady agricultural development [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that over 6 million monitoring subjects have been identified and assisted, effectively eliminating the risk of returning to poverty [3] - The contribution rate of agricultural science and technology reached 63.29% by the end of last year, with over 10 billion mu of high-standard farmland established [6] Group 2 - The revenue of large-scale agricultural product processing enterprises reached approximately 1.8 trillion yuan last year, indicating significant growth in the agricultural processing sector [8] - The per capita disposable income of rural residents is projected to reach 23,119 yuan in 2024, with a noticeable reduction in the income gap between urban and rural residents [10] - The number of farmer cooperatives has exceeded 2 million, and there are over 4 million family farms, showcasing the increasing vitality in rural development [12]

Core Viewpoint - The press conference highlighted the achievements in agricultural and rural development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the stability and progress in these sectors, which have significantly supported the high-quality development of the overall economy and society [1]. Group 1: Food Security - China's grain production has reached a new level, with a record of over 1.4 trillion jin in 2022, an increase of 74 billion jin compared to 2020, ensuring basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute safety in staple food [3]. - The per capita grain availability has reached 500 kg, with continuous improvements in the production capacity of cotton, oil, sugar, fruits, vegetables, meat, eggs, milk, and aquatic products [3]. Group 2: Poverty Alleviation - The country achieved its goal of eradicating poverty in 2020 and has since focused on consolidating and expanding the results of poverty alleviation as a fundamental task for rural revitalization [4]. - Over 6 million monitoring subjects have been identified and assisted to eliminate the risk of returning to poverty, with more than 30 million people from impoverished backgrounds maintaining stable employment [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Modernization - Significant progress has been made in agricultural modernization, with over 100 million acres of high-standard farmland established and a contribution rate of agricultural science and technology reaching 63.2% [5]. - The comprehensive mechanization rate for crop farming has exceeded 75%, and the coverage rate of quality seeds has surpassed 96% [5]. Group 4: Rural Development - The construction of livable and workable beautiful villages has seen new achievements, with the revenue of large-scale agricultural processing enterprises reaching approximately 1.8 trillion yuan [6]. - The average coverage rate of sanitary toilets in rural areas has reached about 76%, and public services in education, healthcare, and elderly care have been continuously improved [6]. Group 5: Income Growth - Rural residents' disposable income has seen rapid growth, reaching 23,119 yuan in 2022, with the income gap between urban and rural residents narrowing from 2.56:1 in 2020 to 2.34:1 [6]. Group 6: Rural Vitality - The country has deepened rural reforms, extending the second round of land contracts for another 30 years and promoting the management of rural homesteads and collective land [6]. - Over 2 million farmer cooperatives and more than 4 million family farms have been cultivated, with over 1.1 million operational service entities providing agricultural social services [6].

Economic Performance - In 2024, Shandong Province achieved a GDP of 9.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, surpassing the national growth rate by 0.7 percentage points[2] - Fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) grew by 3.3%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 15.1% and high-tech industry investment rising by 15.9%[3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.8 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with online retail sales at 754.3 billion yuan, up 7.8%[3] Financial Sector Performance - The total social financing scale in Shandong reached 23.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2%[62] - New loans amounted to 1.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0%, exceeding the national average by 1.8 percentage points[44] - The balance of debt financing tools issued by enterprises was 622.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.6% increase year-on-year[66] Employment and Income - Urban employment increased by 1.245 million, achieving 113.2% of the annual target, while per capita disposable income rose by 5.5%[34] - The rural per capita disposable income growth rate outpaced that of urban residents, indicating a positive trend in rural economic conditions[34] Price Stability - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2%, with food prices declining by 0.5% and non-food prices increasing by 0.4%[35] - The industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.1%, with the decline narrowing by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year[35] Financial Risk Management - The non-performing loan ratio in the banking sector was 1.15%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points, marking six consecutive years of decline[59] - The provision coverage ratio reached 276.6%, indicating enhanced risk resistance capabilities within the banking institutions[59]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US plans to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope, increasing short - term tariff risks. The market is preparing for the Fed's rate cut this week, leading to a weaker dollar and rising global risk appetite. Domestically, China's consumption, investment, and industrial增加值 in August were lower than previous values and market expectations, with slowing domestic demand. The Ministry of Finance will advance the issuance of part of the new local government debt quota for 2026 and take multiple measures to resolve existing implicit debts. Short - term external risk uncertainty is reduced, and domestic easing expectations are enhanced, leading to an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a strengthened short - term upward macro - drive. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, and cautious observation is advised; in the commodity sector, black metals are short - term oscillating, and short - term cautious observation is needed; non - ferrous metals are short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and cautious observation is required; precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas, the US tariff risk increases, the dollar weakens, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, economic data is lower than expected, domestic demand slows, but policy expectations are positive, and domestic risk appetite also increases. The trading logic focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, and the short - term macro - drive is upward [3]. - Asset trends: the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, black metals are short - term oscillating, non - ferrous metals are short - term oscillating strongly, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels [3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as small metals, precious metals, and military industry, the domestic stock market declined slightly. Domestic economic data is weak, but policy expectations are positive, and risk appetite increases. The trading logic focuses on policies and easing expectations, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets continued to rebound on Monday, but trading volume was low. Macroeconomic data in August was weak, increasing anti - involution expectations. Real - world demand is weak, with different trends among varieties. Supply has shown some changes, and the steel market is likely to oscillate in the short term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined slightly on Monday. Iron - making water production increased, and supply is at a high level. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly on Monday. Supply is increasing slightly, and the market is in a state of game. The prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash was strong on Monday. Supply is increasing, and the pattern of over - supply remains. Demand is weak, and it should be treated with a medium - to - long - term bearish view, while being vigilant about short - term positive impacts [6]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass was strong on Monday. Supply is stable, and demand has limited growth. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroeconomic factors lead to a weaker dollar and a rise in copper prices. However, considering the global economic slowdown and weakening domestic demand, the upward space is limited [8]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices oscillated on Monday. Inventory increased unexpectedly, and the mid - term upward space is limited, with slow de - stocking expected [8]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: Supply is affected by short - term factors, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose on Monday. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the market is expected to oscillate and stabilize [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose on Monday. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell slightly on Monday. With rumors of storage and capacity reduction, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is weighing measures to restrict Russian oil and supply - surplus expectations. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and the expected Fed rate cut provide short - term support for oil prices [12]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt rebounded with the rise in oil prices. The upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to the follow - up with oil prices [13]. - **PX**: The price of PX rebounded slightly. It is in a tight pattern and is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA rebounded slightly. Downstream and terminal开工 rates have different recovery situations, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol sector heated up slightly, but inventory increased, and downstream demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber adjusted slightly. Terminal orders increased seasonally, but the upward space is limited, and it can be shorted on rallies in the medium term [14]. - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is rising. However, there are some supporting factors, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - **PP**: Production decreased due to maintenance, and downstream demand improved, but supply is still loose. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - **LLDPE**: Supply increased, and demand improved slightly. With low inventory and a weak market sentiment, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is expected to increase. Demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, but short - term support may come from downstream replenishment [16][17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans declined slightly. Export inspection data was better than expected, and Brazilian drought may support the market [18]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic short - term supply - demand situation is surplus. The supply pressure of soybean meal is large, and the price is expected to improve in late September and October. Rapeseed meal has high inventory, but there is an upward basis in the later period [19]. - **Oils and Fats**: The supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and consumption support is limited. The supply of rapeseed oil decreased. The production of palm oil in Malaysia is affected by floods, and domestic demand is weakening, with increasing inventory [20][21]. - **Corn**: The initial listing price of new - season corn is chaotic, with a slight year - on - year increase. The price is expected to be strong, and the futures price has low - valuation support [21]. - **Pigs**: The planned slaughter of large - scale pig farms increased in September, demand has no obvious increase, and the price rebound expectation is reduced. There may be pressure on the price from October to November, which may promote capacity reduction [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the efforts of the Luoshan County People's Court in enhancing the business environment through judicial support, focusing on a "five grabs and five promotions" work system to ensure high-quality economic and social development [1] Group 1: Case Management and Efficiency - The court has implemented a refined case management system, establishing a full-process identification mechanism for business-related cases, which has led to an average trial duration of 27 days for civil and commercial cases in 2024, ranking first among grassroots courts in the province [2] - Specialized task forces have been set up to handle specific types of cases, such as sales contract disputes, optimizing judicial resource allocation and improving the quality and efficiency of case handling [2] - A data-driven approach has been adopted to monitor and improve key indicators related to the business environment, ensuring continuous optimization of metrics like "contract execution" and "bankruptcy processing" [2] Group 2: Innovative Dispute Resolution - The court has established a green channel for handling enterprise-related cases, promoting online filing and cloud hearings, which has significantly reduced litigation costs for businesses [3] - The "Luofa e-Qi Window" smart service platform has been launched to provide various legal services, achieving a high completion rate of 80% and a 100% satisfaction rate from enterprises since its launch in April 2025 [3] Group 3: Financial and Intellectual Property Protection - A financial tribunal has been established to efficiently resolve financial disputes and prevent financial risks, while also innovating intellectual property trial models to address issues of repeated infringement [5] - The court has signed a framework agreement for collaborative protection of intellectual property rights, enhancing cross-regional cooperation and information sharing [8] Group 4: Multi-Party Coordination and Cost Reduction - The establishment of financial and commercial dispute mediation centers has led to a multi-party coordination mechanism, effectively reducing litigation costs for enterprises by resolving 356 disputes since 2025 [6] Group 5: Execution and Bankruptcy Management - The court has reformed the execution mechanism to ensure thorough investigation of enterprise-related cases, achieving a total of 39 execution activities in 2024, with over 30.44 million yuan executed [9] - The court has also focused on the timely liquidation of non-viable enterprises while supporting the restructuring of those with potential, concluding 8 bankruptcy cases in 2024 with a 100% closure rate [11] Group 6: Judicial Services and Risk Prevention - Judicial officers have actively engaged with 114 enterprises, conducting over 400 visits in 2024 to provide legal consultations and risk management advice [12] - The court has issued judicial recommendations and risk alerts to assist enterprises in maintaining stable operations, alongside organizing legal education sessions to address emerging legal needs [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's economy needs government support. Consumption - related policies will continue. Overseas, US inflation is resilient, and the market focuses on the Fed's actions [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index shows a risk of downward break - out. The RMB against the US dollar is expected to fluctuate weakly and converge to the central parity rate [2]. - **Stock Index**: The domestic fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on the stock index. It will be affected by the Fed's rate - cut decision [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Focus on Sino - US economic talks and the Fed's September meeting. Hold long positions [5]. - **Container Shipping**: The decline of SCFIS European line has slightly converged. The futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate. Short - term intraday operations are recommended [7]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term may be bullish. Short - term, maintain the idea of buying on dips [8][11]. - **Copper**: It will be in a high - level consolidation. The price may be around 81,000 yuan per ton in the short term [12]. - **Aluminum**: It will be oscillating strongly. The weekly price range is 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton [14]. - **Alumina**: It will be in a weak operation. Recommend shorting on rallies [15]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It will be oscillating strongly. The price difference with aluminum is between 400 - 500 yuan/ton [16]. - **Zinc**: It will mainly oscillate [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are strongly affected by the mining end. Short - term, they are in a bottom - strengthening oscillation [17]. - **Tin**: It will be in a high - level oscillation around 274,000 yuan per ton [20]. - **Lead**: It will be in a high - level oscillation. Be cautious about chasing high prices [21]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The macro - level drives upward. The short - term fundamentals are mixed, but the macro - drive is strong, and the price shows an oscillatingly strong trend [24]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment has recovered. The price will oscillate within a limited range before the National Day [26]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The overall supply is becoming more relaxed. The price will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [28]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are supported by cost and will be strong in the short term. Try to go long on specific contracts [29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances drive a small rebound. Supply pressure dominates. Recommend shorting on rallies [31]. - **LPG**: Driven by the macro - level, the price goes up. The external market provides support [33]. - **PTA - PX**: They oscillate with the cost and the macro - environment. PTA processing fees are expected to be repaired [36]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: They are oscillating strongly in the short term due to macro - warming [37]. - **Methanol**: Reduce long positions. It may oscillate in the short term [38]. - **PP**: The downside space is limited. Recommend going long on dips [42]. - **PE**: The demand recovers slowly. It will maintain an oscillating pattern [45]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to wait and see. The current fundamentals are poor, but the short - selling willingness of funds is low [46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It fluctuates with the cost. It is not advisable to continue shorting [46]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short the high - low sulfur spread in the far - month contract [47]. - **Asphalt**: It is pushed up by the "anti - involution" concept. The short - term peak season is not outstanding. Consider long - position allocation after the crude oil stabilizes [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a pattern of having support below and suppression above. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [49]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged. The price is restricted by high inventory [50]. - **Glass**: The price lacks a clear trend. Pay attention to supply - side ignition, cost, and demand seasonality [51]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is weakening. Pay attention to the spot rhythm, peak - season performance, and downstream stocking enthusiasm [52]. - **Pulp**: It rebounds with the commodity sentiment. Recommend buying on dips [53]. - **Propylene**: The futures and spot prices diverge. The futures are driven up by the macro - level, while the spot weakens [55]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Policy disturbances emerge again [56]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's economic data in August shows "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption". Policies in the consumption field will continue. Overseas, US inflation is resilient, and the market focuses on the Fed's actions [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index shows a risk of downward break - out. The RMB against the US dollar is expected to fluctuate weakly and converge to the central parity rate. Enterprises are given corresponding exchange - rate operation suggestions [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The domestic fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on the stock index. It is affected by the Fed's rate - cut decision, but the downward space is limited [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is less affected by the A - share market. The economic data in August is weak. Pay attention to Sino - US economic talks and the Fed's September meeting. Hold long positions [5]. - **Container Shipping**: The decline of SCFIS European line has slightly converged. The futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate. Short - term intraday operations are recommended [7]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price rises due to the Fed's easing expectations. The market focuses on the Fed's actions and tariff policies. Long - term, it may be bullish. Short - term, maintain the idea of buying on dips [8][11]. - **Copper**: The price is affected by the US inflation data and the Fed's rate - cut expectations. It will be in a high - level consolidation in the short term [12]. - **Aluminum**: It is affected by the Fed's rate - cut expectations and the improvement of fundamentals. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the early peak season [14]. - **Alumina**: The supply is in an oversupply state. The price may be weak in the short term. Recommend shorting on rallies [15]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is affected by the shortage of scrap aluminum. It will be oscillating strongly [16]. - **Zinc**: It is mainly oscillating. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is average [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are strongly affected by the mining end. The fundamentals are stable. Short - term, they are in a bottom - strengthening oscillation [17]. - **Tin**: It is affected by the Fed's rate - cut expectations. It will be in a high - level oscillation around 274,000 yuan per ton in the short term [20]. - **Lead**: The price reaches a two - month high. The supply is relatively tight, and the demand is average. Short - term, the upward space is limited. Be cautious about chasing high prices [21]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The macro - level drives upward. The current steel inventory is accumulating seasonally. The market has expectations for peak - season demand. The price shows an oscillatingly strong trend [24]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment has recovered. The iron - water output has limited room for further increase. The price is expected to oscillate within a limited range before the National Day [26]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The supply is becoming more relaxed. The price will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [28]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are supported by cost and will be strong in the short term. Try to go long on specific contracts [29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances drive a small rebound. Supply pressure dominates. Recommend shorting on rallies [31]. - **LPG**: Driven by the macro - level, the price goes up. The external market provides support [33]. - **PTA - PX**: They oscillate with the cost and the macro - environment. PTA processing fees are expected to be repaired [36]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: They are oscillating strongly in the short term due to macro - warming [37]. - **Methanol**: Reduce long positions. It may oscillate in the short term [38]. - **PP**: The downside space is limited. Recommend going long on dips [42]. - **PE**: The demand recovers slowly. It will maintain an oscillating pattern [45]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to wait and see. The current fundamentals are poor, but the short - selling willingness of funds is low [46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It fluctuates with the cost. It is not advisable to continue shorting [46]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short the high - low sulfur spread in the far - month contract [47]. - **Asphalt**: It is pushed up by the "anti - involution" concept. The short - term peak season is not outstanding. Consider long - position allocation after the crude oil stabilizes [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a pattern of having support below and suppression above. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [49]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged. The price is restricted by high inventory [50]. - **Glass**: The price lacks a clear trend. Pay attention to supply - side ignition, cost, and demand seasonality [51]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is weakening. Pay attention to the spot rhythm, peak - season performance, and downstream stocking enthusiasm [52]. - **Pulp**: It rebounds with the commodity sentiment. Recommend buying on dips [53]. - **Propylene**: The futures and spot prices diverge. The futures are driven up by the macro - level, while the spot weakens [55]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Policy disturbances emerge again [56].