Group 1 - The Chicago futures market saw a decline in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on August 8, with corn at $4.06 per bushel, down 1.5 cents (0.37%), wheat at $5.15 per bushel, down 3.75 cents (0.72%), and soybeans at $9.88 per bushel, down 6.25 cents (0.63%) [1] - The market's focus shifted back to the significant production potential of U.S. corn and soybeans, influenced by favorable growing conditions, which severely impacted prices due to expectations of ample supply [1] - Analysts anticipate the upcoming USDA global supply and demand report to indicate a soybean production estimate of 4.365 billion bushels for the 2025/26 season, an increase from the previous estimate of 4.335 billion bushels in July [1] Group 2 - Weather forecasts predict increased rainfall in the central and eastern Midwest regions of the U.S., with a high-pressure ridge moving from the southwest to the southeast, allowing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to flow into the central U.S. [2] - Temperatures in the central U.S. are expected to be near or slightly above normal levels until August 15 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market is in a game between short - term supply surplus and uncertainty of future ship purchases. The recent favorable rainfall in Canada and potential resumption of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade add supply pressure. High - frequency data shows an increase in July palm oil production and a decline in exports, but positive news from the US and Indonesia's biodiesel sectors boosts the oil market. In China, it's the off - season for oil consumption, with ample supply and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills, yet reduced mill operating rates and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease supply pressure. The market is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is supported by concerns about trade policies and low near - month rapeseed arrivals, while being suppressed by high US soybean good - rate, high domestic soybean meal inventory, and expected decline in pig存栏. The market is volatile, and investors are advised to take a bullish view and pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - **Strategy Suggestion**: Short - term trading is recommended [8]. - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher. The 09 contract closed at 9574 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Favorable rainfall in Canada and potential Sino - Australian trade resumption add supply pressure. High - frequency data on palm oil is mixed, and in China, the off - season consumption, ample supply, and high inventory pressure are offset by reduced mill operating rates and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases [9]. Rapeseed Meal - **Strategy Suggestion**: A bullish view is recommended, and attention should be paid to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [11]. - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher. The 09 contract closed at 2773 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Market Outlook**: High US soybean good - rate, high domestic soybean meal inventory, and expected decline in pig存栏 suppress the market, while trade policy concerns and low near - month rapeseed arrivals provide support [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 140,480 lots, down 48,633 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed up, with a total position of 356,167 lots, down 63,512 lots from the previous week [17]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: This week, the top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures were + 21,321, an increase from last week's + 17,912. The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures were + 22,737, an increase from last week's + 16,688 [22]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3,487 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 9,063 lots [26][27]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,700 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from last week, and the basis was + 126 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,660 yuan/ton, slightly up from last week, and the basis was - 113 yuan/ton [34][40]. - **Futures Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was + 13 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was + 267 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [46]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The 09 contract ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.45, and the average spot price ratio was 3.647 [49]. - **Price Spread between Oils and Meals**: The 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,174 yuan/ton, narrowing this week. The 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 594 yuan/ton, with narrow - range fluctuations. The 09 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 335 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 272 yuan/ton as of Thursday [59][65]. 3.3 Industry Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Side Inventory and Arrival Forecast**: As of July 25, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 100,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 were 490,000 tons, 530,000 tons, and 395,000 tons respectively [71]. - **Supply - Side Import Pressing Profit**: As of August 7, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 662 yuan/ton [75]. - **Supply - Side Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 31st week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 62,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 15.17% [79]. - **Supply - Side Monthly Import Arrival Volume**: In June 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 184,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 424,300 tons (69.69%) and a month - on - month decrease of 150,900 tons [83]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory was 786,000 tons, unchanged from last week with a 0.03% month - on - month decline. In June 2025, the rapeseed oil import volume was 150,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28,800 tons (23.67%) and a month - on - month increase of 39,100 tons [87]. - **Demand - Side Consumption and Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 476,900 tons, and the catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan [91]. - **Demand - Side Weekly Contract Volume Change**: As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume was 128,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons (10.05%) from last week [95]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side Weekly Inventory Change**: As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 23,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons (35.29%) from last week [99]. - **Supply - Side Import Volume Change**: In June 2025, the rapeseed meal import volume was 270,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35,600 tons (15.17%) and a month - on - month increase of 75,600 tons [103]. - **Demand - Side Monthly Feed Output Comparison**: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,762,100 tons [107]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 24.93% as of August 1, up 3.56% from last week, at a slightly higher level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [110].

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 1.33%, reaching 28.8288 points, showing an upward trend throughout the day [1] - CBOT corn futures rose by 1.43%, priced at $4.07 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures increased by 1.70%, priced at $5.1825 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures gained 0.96%, priced at $9.9450 per bushel, while soybean meal futures rose by 1.47% and soybean oil futures decreased by 0.29% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. International cotton prices lack a clear driving force and are expected to fluctuate with macro - market sentiment. In China, inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is listed, but the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices, and the demand outlook in the second half of the year is uncertain [2] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market may still be in an increasing production cycle. Brazilian sugar production is accelerating, which will suppress raw sugar futures prices. The upward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, with short - term range - bound fluctuations, a possible tail - up market in the fourth quarter, and increasing downward pressure as new sugar is listed [5][6] - **Pulp**: The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, with looser supply of broad - leaf pulp than coniferous pulp. The demand side is weak, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited. The pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9][10] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,670 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,089 yuan/ton, a change of + 6 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,191 yuan/ton, a change of + 13 yuan/ton. In Brazil, as of August 1, the cotton picking progress in Mato Grosso was 18.3%, 16.4 percentage points behind the same period last year. On August 6, the local cotton price was 73.07 cents/pound, up 1.1% from the previous day and down 3.8% from the high in early July [1] Market Analysis - International: The supply - side weather story is insufficient this year, and the global cotton market in the 25/26 season may be in a supply - loose pattern. US cotton sown area is higher than expected, the drought has improved, and export contracts are weak, so the US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve. Domestic: The commercial cotton inventory is decreasing rapidly, imports in the third quarter are expected to be low, and there is an expectation of tight inventory before the new cotton is listed. However, the new cotton is growing well with a strong production - increasing expectation, the terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices, and the demand outlook in the second half of the year is uncertain [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Considering the sufficient supply of the global cotton market in the new year, there is no continuous upward driving force in the long - term industrial end. Zhengzhou cotton should be treated with a pressure - bearing and volatile mindset in the short term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,667 yuan/ton, a change of - 16 yuan/ton (- 0.28%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,970 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,830 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton. As of the week of August 6, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 80, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.5777 million tons, a 0.69% increase from the previous week [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: In Brazil, the sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the first half of July accelerated, and the sugar - making ratio was at a historical high. The supply outlook is improving, and raw sugar is in a weak shock. The new sugar production estimates in India and Thailand are optimistic, and the global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle. In the third quarter, the peak crushing season in Brazil will suppress raw sugar futures prices. Zhengzhou sugar: The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the industrial inventory is low. However, the expected increase in imports will limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate in a range, with a possible tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but there is an increasing downward pressure as new sugar is listed [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the long - term trend should be treated with a bearish mindset [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,186 yuan/ton, a change of + 16 yuan/ton (+ 0.31%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian needles was 5,200 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The import pulp spot market price was stable [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year, and more pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory removal is slow, and there is still supply pressure in the second half of the year, with looser supply of broad - leaf pulp. Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States has been weak this year, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. In China, affected by the off - season, the demand is weak, the finished paper inventory pressure is rising, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [9] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and there is no positive driving force in the industrial chain. The pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [10]

Research Views - Corn is expected to fluctuate weakly. On Thursday, the September contract of corn stabilized with a technical rebound, and the night - session price continued to rise. The national corn price was weak, with the domestic average price at 2388 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The short - term resistance for the September contract is at 2260 - 2280 yuan/ton, and the medium - term outlook is weak [2]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to rise. On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose due to low - price - stimulated demand. The net sales of US soybeans last week were 101.28 million tons, higher than expected. In the domestic market, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures rose, and the night - session rapeseed meal increased by over 2%. The strategy is to hold long positions in soybean meal and participate in 11 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads [2]. - The price of oils is expected to rise. On Thursday, BMD palm oil fell due to increased inventory and production and weak demand. In the domestic market, the three major oils showed a strong trend. The strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [2]. - The price of eggs is expected to fluctuate. On Thursday, the main 2509 contract of eggs rose slightly by 0.38%. The spot price decreased. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future. However, the short - term market sentiment is bearish [2]. - The price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate strongly. On Thursday, the live pig futures continued to rebound. The spot price decreased due to oversupply. Policy support exists, and short - term long positions can be held cautiously [3]. Market Information - Fed Governor Waller is becoming a top candidate for Fed Chair as Trump's advisers search for Powell's successor [4]. - As of the week ending August 5, about 3% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week and 4% last year [4]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, with an estimated area of 48.13 million hectares [4]. - Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.15 million tons, up from 7.98 million tons last year [4]. - The US 2024/2025 soybean export net sales were 468,000 tons, and the 2025/2026 net sales were 545,000 tons [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report provides charts on the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybean No.1, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [6][8][9][12]. Contract Basis - The report provides charts on the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][18][24][26].

油料日报 | 2025-08-08 天气与政策窗口期下，新旧作物交替影响显现 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4134.00元/吨，较前日变化+16.00元/吨，幅度+0.39%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+166，较前日变化-16，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场昨日大豆价格稳定。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/ 斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳 木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等 蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报 价2.19元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日豆一市场呈现温和回升态势。市场焦点集中于周五中储粮计划开展的大豆单向拍卖活动，同时关内地区持续 关注降雨天气对新季大豆生长的影响。关外主产区大豆价格保持稳定。受季节性消费淡季及新豆上市预期影 ...

北京时间8月8日，芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货价格小幅震荡，今日开盘报53.55美分/磅，现报每 吨53.46美分/磅，涨幅0.02%，盘中最高触及53.65美分/磅，最低下探53.43美分/磅。 【豆油市场消息速递】 8月7日，阿根廷豆油(9月船期)C&F价格1141美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调12美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(11 月船期)C&F价格1120美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调21美元/吨。 8月7日：全国一级豆油成交量12000吨，环比上个交易日减少77.14%。 8月7日，大商所豆油期货仓单15370手，环比上个交易日增加3830手。 豆油期货行情回顾： 8月7日芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美豆油 53.66 53.83 53.22 53.42 -0.43% ...

商 品 研 究 豆粕：出口较好、美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹 豆一：移仓换月，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4134 | +16（+0.39%） 4127 -1 | （-0.02%） | | 货 期 | （元/吨） DCE豆粕2509 | 3031 | +4（+0.13%） 3036 | +16（+0.53%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 994.5 | +9.25（+0.94%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 285.2 +4.1 | n a （+1.46%） | | | | | | （43%） 豆粕 | | | | | 2950～3000， 较昨-20至持平； M2509-60， 持平； | 现货基差M2509-100/-60/-30 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans and Meals**: - **Soybean Meal**: Big - range oscillation ★ [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Big - range oscillation ★ [1] - **Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation ★ [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish ★ [1] - **Jujube**: Cautiously bullish ★ [1] - **Pork**: Cautiously bullish ★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Under the intertwined effects of weak fundamentals and the cost support of China - US trade tariffs, it shows a big - range oscillation. This week, there was a reduction in soybean meal inventory, and the环比 decline of the good - quality rate of US soybeans was bullish. However, there is a risk of a环比 increase in the per - unit yield of US soybeans in the August USDA report next week, so the market is cautious about going long. Pay attention to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Amid the intertwined long and short factors, it presents a big - range market. The recovery of global rapeseed production year - on - year, but there is a risk of a reduction in the per - unit yield of Canadian rapeseed in the new year. The reduction of rapeseed imports from August to October, the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. However, the improvement of the import profit of Canadian rapeseed exerts pressure. Pay attention to the planting weather of Canadian rapeseed and the estimated per - unit yield data this month [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The fundamental outlook is bullish, and the idea is to go long on dips. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in July, which may suppress short - term prices. Pay attention to the final data around the 10th of this month [1][10]. - **Cotton**: The soil moisture in the main cotton - producing areas of the US continues to deteriorate slightly, and the improvement expectation of exports is limited. It is expected to be weak after a short - term rebound. In China, the actual sown area and per - unit yield of new cotton increase simultaneously, pushing up the guaranteed output. The commercial inventory is still being depleted rapidly, and the replenishment of downstream finished products slows down, providing short - term support. Downstream is gradually entering the stocking market, and the orders of textile enterprises have a slight rebound. It is advisable to be cautiously long on dips in the short term [1][14]. - **Jujube**: There are still differences in the market regarding the reduction range of production. At present, it is still doubtful whether there will be an over - expected reduction in production, and there is still speculation risk. The high - inventory pressure restricts the rebound height before the final production is determined. It is advisable to cautiously try long this week [1][17]. - **Pork**: The previous selling of second - fattened pigs and the acceleration of the short - term slaughter rhythm pushed down the pig price. However, considering the recovery of the price difference between standard and fat pigs, it still drives some second - fattening speculation. The near - month contracts are weak but have certain support. The medium - and long - term production capacity remains at a high level, and the gradual reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises is expected to boost the far - month contracts. It is advisable to pay attention to the reverse - spread strategy and the opportunity to establish long positions on dips [1][21]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.7 million tons, a环比 increase of 15.20 million tons; 125 oil - mill soybean inventories were 655.59 million tons, a环比 increase of 10.00 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 104.16 million tons, a环比 decrease of 0.15 million tons. The physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal were 8.05 days, a环比 decrease of 0.14 days [3]. - **Market Transactions**: On August 5, the far - month basis trading volume soared, reaching a new high in nearly three years, mainly concentrated in the 10 - 1, 11 - 1, and 11 - 12 contracts [3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, the coastal main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 11.6 million tons, a环比 decrease of 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 2.7 million tons, a环比 increase of 0.8 million tons. The total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions across the country was 62.88 million tons, a环比 decrease of 3.66 million tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: Although June - August is the peak season for aquaculture, the substitution effect of soybean meal is enhanced, squeezing the market share of rapeseed meal. The reduction of rapeseed imports from August to October and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal support the price, but the improvement of the import profit of Canadian rapeseed exerts pressure [7]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil was 58.22 million tons, a环比 decrease of 3.33 million tons [9]. - **Production Data**: In July 2025, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 9.01% month - on - month to 1.84 billion tons. From August 1 - 5, 2025, the per - unit yield of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia decreased by 19.32% compared with the same period last month, and the palm oil production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month [9]. 3.4 Cotton - **International Situation**: The good - quality rate of US cotton this week remained at 55%, 10% higher than the same period. The non - drought rate in the US cotton - growing areas has gradually decreased to 80%. The newly sown area of cotton in India increased by 7% year - on - year, and the sowing progress was 24%, 2% higher than the same period. The new cotton harvest progress in Brazil has reached 16.7% [12]. - **Domestic Situation**: In China, the per - unit yield of new cotton is expected to increase by 2.5% year - on - year, and the output is expected to reach 7.4 billion tons or more. The commercial inventory has decreased to 215.71 million tons, 17.43 million tons lower than the same period. The orders of textile enterprises have a slight rebound, and the gold - nine - silver - ten stocking has gradually started [13]. 3.5 Jujube - **Production Expectation**: The new - season jujube is in the critical fruit - setting period. Some institutions estimate that the new - season production will decrease by 5 - 10% compared with 2022 and 20 - 25% compared with 2024, but other institutions give a conclusion of a 35 - 40% reduction, so the production expectation should be treated with caution [16]. - **Inventory Situation**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9784 tons, a环比 decrease of 255 tons, higher than the same period by 4379 tons, and the depletion speed has significantly accelerated compared with the previous four weeks [16]. 3.6 Pork - **Supply Situation**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises in August is 13.2257 billion heads, a环比 increase of 5.26%. The proportion of large - pig slaughter remains high, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening is also high. In the medium term, the number of newly born piglets from January to June 2025 continued to increase, and it is expected that the slaughter volume in the second half of the year will still have room for growth [20]. - **Demand Situation**: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand in scenarios such as schools has a phased weakening [20].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report of Wukuang Futures on August 8, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products including soybeans, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Analysis Soybeans/Meals - Thursday night, US soybeans rose slightly, supported by low - valuation bargain - hunting and position adjustment before the USDA report. Domestic soybean meal was supported by cost due to lack of US soybean purchases and strong Brazilian quotes, and was trading near the break - even price. Domestic soybean meal spot was stable on Thursday, with an offer of 2,910 yuan/ton in East China, and the transaction volume decreased while the pick - up was good [2] - According to MYSTEEL statistics, 2.2539 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China last week, and 2.213 million tons are expected to be crushed this week [2] - US soybean production areas are expected to have slightly less rainfall in the next two weeks, mainly in the central region, and the temperature is at a neutral level. In Brazil, the premium is rising strongly and has stabilized in the past two days. Overall, US soybeans are in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver, but the domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward fluctuation due to a single supply source [3] Oils - High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to increase by 5.31% - 12% in the first 10 days of June, decrease by 5.29% - 6.16% in the first 15 days, decrease by 3.57% - 7.31% in the first 20 days, decrease by 9.2% - 15.22% in the first 25 days, and decrease by 6.71% - 9.58% for the whole month. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 35.28% in the first 10 days of July 2025, 17.06% in the first 15 days, 6.19% in the first 20 days, 5.52% in the first 25 days, and 7.07% for the whole month [7] - Brazilian 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, with an estimated area of 48.13 million hectares (118.9 million acres), a 1.43% increase from the previous year [7] Sugar - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton or 0.76% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups' quotes were 5,920 - 6,040 yuan/ton, down 20 - 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups' quotes were 5,750 - 5,790 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotes of processing sugar mills were 6,100 - 6,200 yuan/ton, down 0 - 50 yuan/ton [12] - As of the week of August 6, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 80, compared with 79 in the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.5777 million tons, compared with 3.5531 million tons in the previous week. In July, Brazil exported 455,000 tons of sugar to China, a decrease of 305,000 tons from June and 130,000 tons from the same period last year [12] Cotton - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 13,835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) against the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1,165 yuan/ton [15] - In July, Brazil exported 127,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 6,000 tons from June and 40,000 tons from the same period last year. Among them, exports to China were 8,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from June but a decrease of 27,000 tons from the same period last year [15] Eggs - The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few areas having narrow - range adjustments. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 2.86 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.6 yuan/jin, while the price in Guantao rose 0.07 yuan to 2.69 yuan/jin. The supply was relatively stable, farmers were actively selling, the overall market sales improved slightly, and the participants' enthusiasm increased slightly [17] Pigs - The domestic pig price continued to fall yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.14 yuan to 13.86 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.11 yuan to 13.26 yuan/kg. The supply for slaughter was abundant, the terminal demand was limited, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high [19] Group 3: Trading Strategies Soybeans/Meals - The import cost of foreign - sourced soybeans is currently fluctuating due to low valuation, positive EPA policies, and the fact that soybeans from September to January are solely supplied by Brazil. With global protein raw material supply in excess, the upward momentum of soybean import cost is insufficient. The domestic soybean meal market is still in a season of oversupply, and it is expected that the spot market may start destocking at the end of September. Therefore, the soybean meal market has both long and short factors. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new drivers from the supply side. In terms of arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract when the spread is low [5] Oils - Fundamentally, the US biodiesel policy draft exceeding expectations, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the center of the oil market. From July to September, if demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in producing areas may remain stable, supporting the quotes in producing areas to fluctuate strongly. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upward space is restricted by factors such as annual - level oil production increase expectations, high - end palm oil production in the near - term, the RVO rules not being finalized, macro factors, and demand adjustments by major importing countries. The market should be viewed as fluctuating [10] Sugar - In the second half of the year, the increasing import supply will squeeze the sales space of domestic - produced sugar. The profit from out - of - quota spot sugar imports has been at the highest level in the past five years, and the futures price is over - valued. Coupled with the expectation of an increase in domestic planting area in the next season, assuming that the foreign market price does not rebound significantly, the Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to fall [13] Cotton - The Sino - US economic and trade agreement has not been finalized, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures is bearish. Fundamentally, as the basis strengthens, the downstream consumption is average recently, the operating rate remains at a historically low level, and the cotton destocking speed has slowed down. The current futures price has fallen below the trend line, so it should be viewed as bearish in the short term [16] Eggs - The increase in newly - laid hens and the difficulty in culling old hens have led to a large supply, causing the spot price to perform worse than expected in the peak season. Near - term short - sellers should continue to squeeze the premium, and the market is dominated by reverse - spread logic. However, as the market still expects a rebound in the peak seasons of August and September, with the intensification of differences in the market as positions increase, it is easy to have reverse fluctuations when the spot price rises. Considering the high inventory throughout the peak season and the fact that subsequent contracts on the futures market cannot reflect the spot price peak, it is advisable to short after a rebound in the medium term, and short - term positions can be appropriately reduced at low prices to avoid risks [18] Pigs - The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction, and the original logic of oversupply has been reconstructed, resulting in a significant increase in the valuation of each futures contract, especially the long - term ones. For near - term contracts, although the theoretical supply in the fourth quarter increases, after the current active weight - reduction has released pressure in advance, the large difference between the prices of fat and standard pigs may lead to active weight - gain, reducing the possibility of significant destocking in the early fourth quarter, and the spread may move towards a positive structure. For long - term contracts, the long - term policy's regulation of sow capacity cannot be disproven for now, and the spread tends to be in a reverse structure. With the industrial structure being reconstructed, the uncertainty of single - side trading increases, and more attention should be paid to spread opportunities [20] Group 4: Key Charts - The report includes multiple charts on agricultural products, such as the inventory of major oil mills' soybean meal, granulated rapeseed meal, port soybeans, domestic three major oils, and Malaysian palm oil, as well as production, export, rainfall, and other related data charts [21][38][51]