1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market is generally in a state of loose supply and demand, with the US and Brazil having relatively favorable supply - side situations [4]. - The raw sugar market is weak due to global supply - demand looseness, while the domestic sugar market may follow the raw sugar price fluctuations [12]. - The palm oil market is in a stage of production increase and inventory accumulation, and the domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory build - up, while the rapeseed oil market has a pattern of oversupply [18]. - The US corn market has a good production outlook, leading to a weakening trend in the futures market, while the domestic corn market has a relatively strong spot price [26]. - The pig market has limited supply in the short term but faces future inventory pressure, and price increase space is restricted [31]. - The peanut market is expected to be short - term strong and volatile, but may decline in the long - term due to expected increase in planting area [37]. - The egg market's futures price downward space is limited, and the upward space of the August and September contracts depends on the amount of culled chickens [47]. - The apple market's futures price is likely to be slightly strong in a volatile manner in July due to low inventory and some impacts on fruit setting [51]. - The cotton market is affected by macro - trade policies and fundamental supply - demand, with the US cotton planting progress slightly behind and the Brazilian cotton harvest progress slow [58]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **External Market Conditions**: The CBOT soybean index rose 0.22% to 1033.25 cents per bushel, and the CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.1% to 284.4 dollars per short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: In May, the US soybean crushing volume was 6.11 million tons. As of June 29, the EU's 2024/25 rapeseed and soybean meal imports increased compared to the previous year. The US soybean meal export sales in the 25/26 season reached 204,000 tons. As of June 27, the oil mill's soybean inventory increased, and the soybean meal inventory also increased [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market supply and demand is loose, with good weather in the US, high production in Brazil, and potentially reduced export pressure in Argentina [4]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For one - sided trading, consider buying at low points. For arbitrage, expect the MRM09 spread to widen [6] Sugar - **External Market Conditions**: The ICE US sugar主力 contract fell 3.09% to 15.70 cents per pound [7]. - **Important Information**: In the first half of June, Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production decreased compared to the previous year. The spot price of sugar in Guangxi decreased, and that in some regions was stable. The estimated delivery volume of the July raw sugar futures contract is at a low level since 2014 [8][9][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The raw sugar market is weak due to loose global supply and demand, and the domestic sugar market may follow the raw sugar price fluctuations [12]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For one - sided trading, hold short positions as the raw sugar weakens and drags down Zhengzhou sugar. For arbitrage, take profit on the 9 - 1 spread. For options, use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [16] Oilseeds and Oils - **External Market Conditions**: The overnight CBOT US soybean oil主力 price changed by 0.81% to 53.65 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil主力 price changed by 0.50% to 3990 ringgit per ton [14]. - **Relevant Information**: In June, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased compared to the previous month. Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased significantly compared to the previous year. StoneX raised the forecast of Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production. As of June 29, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports decreased compared to the previous year, while soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports increased [15][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Palm oil is in a stage of production increase and inventory accumulation, domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory build - up, and rapeseed oil has an oversupply pattern [18]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For one - sided trading, consider buying on dips as the short - term oil market may fluctuate. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [19][20][21] Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: The CBOT corn futures fell, with the December主力 contract down 0.5% to 422.0 cents per bushel [24]. - **Important Information**: The CBOT corn futures slightly declined due to good crop growth and a clear production outlook. The US corn has a high excellent - rate and good future weather conditions. The domestic corn port price is strong, and the North China spot price has declined [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US corn market has a good production outlook, leading to a weakening trend in the futures market, while the domestic corn market has a relatively strong spot price [26]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For one - sided trading, the US September corn futures are in a bottom - oscillating state, and adopt a wait - and - see approach. For arbitrage, consider expanding the spread between corn and starch. For options, those with spot goods can consider a high - level put - writing strategy [27][29] Hogs - **Relevant Information**: Hog prices are rising in various regions, while piglet and sow prices remain stable. The national average wholesale price of pork decreased [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term supply of the hog market is limited, but future inventory pressure exists, and price increase space is restricted [31]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For one - sided trading, adopt a bearish approach. For arbitrage, conduct a positive spread operation on LH91. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [32][34] Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions are stable, oil mill arrivals are at a certain level, peanut oil prices are strong, and peanut meal sales are slow. The inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in sample enterprises has decreased [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The peanut market has low spot trading volume, stable prices, and expected increase in planting area, with short - term strength and long - term decline potential [37]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For one - sided trading, consider short - selling on rallies for the October contract and currently adopt a wait - and - see approach. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option [40][41][42] Eggs - **Important Information**: Egg prices are generally stable across the country, the number of laying hens in stock has increased, the number of culled hens has decreased, egg sales have increased, and the profit per egg is still in a loss or break - even state [44][45][46]. - **Trading Logic**: The downward space of egg futures prices is limited, and the upward space of the August and September contracts depends on the amount of culled hens [47]. - **Trading Strategies**: For one - sided trading, consider building long positions in the August and September contracts when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell put options [48] Apples - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory has decreased, import and export volumes have changed, spot prices are stable, and storage profit has increased [49][50]. - **Trading Logic**: Low inventory may support the opening price of early - maturing apples, and the futures price is expected to be slightly strong in a volatile manner in July [51]. - **Trading Strategies**: For one - sided trading, build long positions on dips for the AP10 contract. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell put options [52][53][54] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: The ICE US cotton主力 contract fell 0.12% to 67.96 cents per pound [55]. - **Important Information**: Brazil's cotton harvest progress is slow, the US cotton planting progress is slightly behind, and the planting area is expected to decrease [56][57]. - **Trading Logic**: The cotton market is affected by macro - trade policies and fundamental supply - demand, and the futures price may be slightly strong in a volatile manner [58][59]. - **Trading Strategies**: For one - sided trading, expect the US cotton to be mainly oscillating and the Zhengzhou cotton to be slightly strong in the short - term. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell put options [60][64]

Core Insights - The primary focus of the article is on the upward movement of CBOT soybean prices, which is largely driven by the strong performance of soybean oil [1] Group 1 - CBOT soybean prices have increased, primarily influenced by the robust trend in soybean oil [1] - Analysts indicate that the Senate's narrow passage of the budget bill "keeps 45Z alive," which may have implications for soybean oil prices [1]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 7 月 2 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： 第二部分 行情分析 河南花生价格稳定，东北花生价格稳定。目前东北吉林扶余 308 通货 4.7 元/斤，较 昨日价格稳定，辽宁昌图 4.7 元/斤，较昨日价格稳定。河南产区白沙通货米报价 4.6-4.75 元/斤，较昨日价格稳定，山东莒南 4.15 元/斤，较昨日价格稳定。进口苏丹精米报价 8300 元/吨，较昨日价格稳定。预计花生现货短期相对稳定。 今日花生油厂采购价格稳定，主流成交价格维持在 7650-7700 元/吨，油厂理论保本 价 8140 元/吨。今日豆油价格稳定，花生油价格稳定，国内一级普通花生油报价稳定在 15000 元/吨，价格较昨日稳定，小榨浓香型花生油市场报价为 17000 元/吨，价格较昨日 稳定。 1 / 4 花生日报 第一部分 数据 Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/7/2 | | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows some pressure, with a limited rebound followed by a decline. The international market has slow selling progress in Brazil but relatively firm prices. The deep - decline space of soybean meal is limited. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuate, with limited support from demand and limited upside space due to high inventory. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may widen in the future [4][7]. - The new US soybean balance sheet has improved, but there is a lack of substantial bullish factors in production and exports. The supply pressure of the international soybean market is concentrated in South America, especially in Brazil and Argentina [5]. - The domestic soybean meal spot market is relatively loose, with increasing inventory. The rapeseed meal market has sufficient supply but weakening demand, and is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean futures market fluctuates, lacking obvious driving factors. The domestic soybean meal futures market declines slightly, and the rapeseed meal futures market is weak. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal changes little. The inter - monthly spread of soybean meal futures fluctuates, while that of rapeseed meal futures rebounds [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The new US soybean balance sheet improves due to biodiesel policies, but there is no substantial bullish news in production and exports. As of the week ending June 15, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%. As of the week ending June 12, the export inspection volume of old US soybeans is 215,800 tons. The US soybean crushing data in May is good, with a NOPA - caliber crushing volume of 192.829 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 1.37%. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers is slow, and the pressure on prices is emerging. The Brazilian soybean crushing volume decreases, and the export may increase. The domestic crushing volume in Argentina may improve, but soybean exports may also increase [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal spot market is loose, with increasing oil mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increasing inventory. As of June 27, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 2.4878 million tons, the operating rate is 69.93%, the soybean inventory is 6.6587 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 278,800 tons (4.37%) and a year - on - year increase of 1 million tons (17.68%); the soybean meal inventory is 691,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 182,700 tons (35.9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 361,400 tons (34.32%). The domestic rapeseed meal demand weakens, and although the operating rate of oil mills decreases, the supply is still sufficient, and the inventory increases. As of the week ending June 27, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills is 43,000 tons, the operating rate this week is 11.46%, the rapeseed inventory is 188,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 11,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 900 tons [6]. 3.3 Macro - analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London is completed, but there is no clear information. The market is worried about the uncertainty of future supply. Although the international trade has many uncertainties, the macro - disturbances are decreasing. China's long - term demand for US soybeans is high, so the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [7]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows pressure, with a limited rebound and then a decline. The international market has slow selling progress in Brazil but firm prices. The deep - decline space of soybean meal is limited. The rapeseed meal futures market fluctuates, with limited upside space due to weak demand and high inventory. The inter - monthly spread of soybean meal futures has support, and that of rapeseed meal futures is strong. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may widen [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: It is recommended to buy a small amount of long positions in the far - month soybean meal futures [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM09 spread [8]. - **Options**: Wait and see [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market continues to trade in a narrow range and is expected to remain volatile in the short term. The aquaculture peak season boosts demand, but the ample supply of imported soybeans and the substitution advantage of soybean meal suppress its price [2]. - The rapeseed oil market closed higher with increased short - term volatility. Although the domestic supply is ample and inventory pressure is high, the decline in refinery operating rates eases production pressure, and potential tensions in Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect imports [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and rapeseed all changed, with rapeseed oil at 9619 yuan/ton (up 142), rapeseed meal at 2578 yuan/ton (down 8), ICE rapeseed at 709.8 CAD/ton (up 11.1), and rapeseed at 5165 yuan/ton (up 215) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads and positions of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal also had changes, such as the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil at 65 yuan/ton (up 16) and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil at 32659 lots (up 7168) [2]. 现货市场 - Spot prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and related products had fluctuations. For example, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9630 yuan/ton (up 50), and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2470 yuan/ton (down 20) [2]. - The oil - meal ratio was 3.75 (down 0.01), and the basis of the main contracts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal also changed [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production was forecasted at 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the import volume of rapeseed decreased by 15.37 tons to 33.55 tons [2]. - The import rapeseed crushing profit was 107 yuan/ton (down 95), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed refineries was 11.46% (down 2.8) [2]. Industrial Situation - The import volumes of rapeseed oil, mustard oil, and rapeseed meal increased, while the inventory of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal and other regions changed [2]. - The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 3 tons (up 0.19), and that of rapeseed meal was 3.48 tons (up 0.61) [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2762.1 tons (up 98.1), and the monthly social retail sales of catering were 4578.2 billion yuan (up 411.2) [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 tons (down 87) [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased, and the historical volatility also changed [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures were closed on Tuesday. Canada cancelled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations with the US, and the US soybean inventory and planting area data were released [2]. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The US soybean market is relatively stable, and the domestic supply of soybeans is increasing, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. Although the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is increasing, the substitution of soybean meal weakens its demand [2]. Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The palm oil market has inventory concerns, and the US fiscal policy supports the development of biodiesel from soybean oil. In China, the supply of vegetable oil is ample, but the decline in refinery operating rates eases the output pressure, and Sino - Canadian relations may affect rapeseed imports [2].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 0.25%，报收 67.96 美分/磅，CF509 环比下降 0.51，报收 13745 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 11709 手至 56.32 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15187 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 70 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15212 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 58 元/吨。国际市场方面，美棉实播面积报告公布后，美棉价格环比回落， | | | | 新年度美棉产量或同比基本持平。关注后续宏观及天气扰动。国内市场方面，郑 | | | 棉花 | 棉期价连续两日回落，持仓持续下降。我们认为主要原因有以下两点，一是新棉 | | | | 的丰产预期，国家棉花市场监测系统 6 月末调查报告显示，新疆地区植棉面积同 | | | | 比增加 8.2%，增幅环比上调。另一方面是当前下游需求支撑力度有限。当前下游 | | | | 纺织企业开机仍在小幅下降，略低于 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | | | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二，玉米 | | | 9 月期价震荡上行，进口玉米拍卖溢价成交，现货市场强势表现对玉 | 震荡 | | 米期价提供支撑。周初，玉米 | | | 7 月持仓下降，资金向 9 月合约移仓较为有限，期 | | | 价连续四日呈现震荡表现。现货市场方面，周末玉米报价稳中偏强运行。目前进 | | | | | | 口玉米拍卖消息已出，从周末市场表现来看并未受到明显影响，东北部分深加工 | | | | | | 玉米收购价格继续上调，产区玉米报价仍维持在相对高位。周末华北地区玉米到 | | | | | | 货量维持低位，加上近期阴雨天气较多，部分深加工企业玉米价格继续上行，普 | | | | | | 玉米 | | | 遍上调 10-20 元/吨。基层余粮不断减少，贸易商挺价意愿较强。周末销区市场 | | | 玉米价格坚挺运行。港口贸易商报价坚挺，下游提货速度一般，港口库存仍有压 | | | | | | 力。饲料企业对玉米高价接受度有限，小部分企业刚需采购玉米 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3] Group 2: Core Views - The price of domestic soybeans oscillated yesterday. The remaining soybeans at the grass - roots level are only about 1% - 2%, and farmers with soybeans are asking for high prices. The prices of soybean rough grains in the Yangtze and Yellow River basins are basically stable, while the prices of clean grains are slightly decreasing. The inventory of grain trading enterprises is tight, and some enterprises' quotations are firm. The downstream demand is weak, and the net grain loading prices of some enterprises are slightly reduced as the new - season soybeans are approaching [2] - The price of peanuts oscillates. The market continues the stalemate of weak supply and demand, with prices running weakly and steadily in a narrow range, and the overall trading atmosphere is light [3] Group 3: Soybean Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the soybeans 2507 contract yesterday was 4127.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 14.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.34% [1] Spot - The basis of edible soybeans was A07 + 153, a change of + 14 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14% [1] Market Information - On Monday, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed, with a near - weak and far - strong trend, and the benchmark contract closed up 0.3%. The July contract fell 3.50 cents to 1024.25 cents/bushel; the August contract fell 3.50 cents to 1029.75 cents/bushel; the November contract rose 2.25 cents to 1027 cents/bushel [1] - USDA adjusted the 2025 US soybean planting area to 83.38 million acres, lower than the 83.495 million acres in March and the average analyst estimate of about 83.655 million acres. This estimated soybean planting area will be 4.2% less than the 87.05 million acres in 2024 [1] - The total soybean inventory on June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, higher than the market expectation of 980 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [1] Group 4: Peanut Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 8200.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 44.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.54% [3] Spot - The average spot price of peanuts was 8980.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 20.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.22%. The spot basis was PK10 + 100.00, a change of - 44.00 from the previous day, a decrease of 30.56% [3] Market Information - As of June 26, 2025, the average price of national common peanuts was 9000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.88% from the previous week [3] - The current prices of common peanuts in different regions are: 4.65 - 4.70 yuan/jin in Huangludian, Henan; 4.15 yuan/jin in Linyi, Shandong; 4.60 - 4.65 yuan/jin in Changtu, Liaoning; 4.55 - 4.60 yuan/jin in Xingcheng, Liaoning; 4.6 - 4.65 yuan/jin in Jilin [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [6] - **Pigs**: Oscillating [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [13] - **Sugar**: Oscillating (short - term), Oscillating weakly (long - term) [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating weakly [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market is generally in a state of oscillation. Each variety is affected by different factors, including supply, demand, weather, and policy. For example, the oils and fats market may continue to oscillate weakly due to factors such as good soybean growth and the palm oil production season, while protein meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term with cost support [5][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The U.S. soybean planting area is lower than expected, but the current growth is good. - **Industry Information**: As of June 29, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%. The 2025 U.S. soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than the expected 83.655 million acres. As of June 1, 2025, the U.S. old - crop soybean inventory was 1.01 billion bushels, up 4% year - on - year [5]. - **Logic**: The U.S. soybean planting area being slightly lower than expected and the quarterly inventory being higher than expected offset each other. The macro - environment has uncertainties, and the industrial side shows that U.S. soybean growth is good, and the palm oil production pressure may decrease marginally in June. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the oils and fats may continue to oscillate weakly, but factors such as trade uncertainties and the expected increase in overseas biodiesel consumption of oils may support prices [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The strong Brazilian soybean premium provides cost support for the Dalian soybean meal futures. - **Industry Information**: On July 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes showed different changes. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 41.63 yuan/ton, up 3.71% week - on - week [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the U.S. soybean area is in line with expectations, but the quarterly inventory is increased. Brazil's soybean exports are strong, and China mainly purchases Brazilian soybeans. Domestically, soybean arrivals increase, oil mills' inventory accumulates, and downstream replenishment is insufficient, but cost support exists in the long - run [6]. - **Outlook**: The U.S. soybean is expected to oscillate in a range. Domestic soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price points on dips [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The imported corn auction was sold at a premium, and the spot price remains firm. - **Industry Information**: The Jinzhou Port FOB price was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the domestic corn average price was 2438 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [7]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is mainly rising. The trade volume is reluctant to sell, and the demand is squeezed by wheat. The imported corn auction has limited volume and was sold at a premium. New - crop corn growth is affected by weather [8]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the supply - demand gap expectation, the price may rise, but there may be callbacks due to potential negative impacts of policy - grain auctions [8]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: Farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the impact of subsequent rainfall needs attention. - **Industry Information**: On July 1, 2025, the Henan live pig (foreign ternary) price was 15.15 yuan/kg, up 1% month - on - month, and the live pig futures closing price was 13,865 yuan/ton, down 0.04% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the average slaughter weight is decreasing, but farmers still have the intention to hold back. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets is increasing, and in the long - term, the production capacity is still high. The demand is weak, and the inventory is partially transferred [9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate. Although the average slaughter weight is decreasing, farmers' intention to hold back still exists, and it is currently the off - season for consumption [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The rubber price rose in the afternoon following the overall commodity trend. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and Thailand's raw material market showed different changes. Vietnam's natural rubber exports in the first five months of 2025 decreased by 18% year - on - year [10][11]. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market rose, and the rubber price followed. The raw material price is firm, providing bottom - support. The supply is expected to increase, but the demand is expected to decrease [11]. - **Outlook**: Before new fundamental guidance emerges, it may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [11]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price followed the overall commodity trend, first falling and then rising. - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different changes [12]. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is relatively warm, and the futures price is stable and oscillating. The fundamental trading is not significant, and it mainly follows the trend of natural rubber and the overall commodity market. The overall operating level has declined, and the inventory has slightly increased [12]. - **Outlook**: The external situation may be temporarily controllable, and the correction may not be over. Attention should be paid to the previous low support [12]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures has slowed down due to the upward revision of the U.S. cotton planting area. - **Industry Information**: As of July 1, 2025, the number of registered warrants in the 24/25 season was 10,211, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2][13]. - **Logic**: In the new - crop season, the production of China and other major cotton - producing countries is expected to increase. The U.S. cotton planting area is revised upward. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing support [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate between 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [14]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Due to the lack of positive factors, the sugar price continues to lack upward momentum. - **Industry Information**: As of July 1, 2025, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton [15]. - **Logic**: Domestically, the 24/25 sugar - making season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated imported sugar arrivals. Internationally, the new - crop production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase [15]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected supply surplus. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The fundamentals remain weak, and the pulp futures maintain a weak operation. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong showed different changes [16]. - **Logic**: The pulp import volume remains high, the price is in a downward trend, the demand is in the off - season, and the domestic inventory is high. The pulp price is under pressure to fall, but it is risky to short at the current low level [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate due to weak supply - demand and potential positive impacts from changes in delivery rules [16]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The market has returned to fundamental - driven, and the far - month contracts oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The inventory has decreased due to reduced arrivals, but it is the consumption off - season. The short - term fundamentals are in a weak balance, and the far - month contracts are expected to be weak due to the weak fundamentals [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The far - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly [17]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report also lists the sections for data monitoring of various varieties such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [20][39][52]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards including "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weak", with corresponding explanations of expected price changes and the time period being the next 2 - 12 weeks [169].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamental improvement of palm oil production areas is limited, and the market is bottoming out through fluctuations; the hype about the weather of US soybeans is insufficient, and there is a lack of driving forces for soybean oil [1] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of palm oil futures (day session) was 8,336 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.07%, and the night - session closing price remained unchanged. The closing price of soybean oil futures (day session) was 7,972 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.15%, and the night - session closing price decreased by 0.28%. The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (day session) was 9,477 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.66%, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.08%. The Malaysian palm oil futures closing price was 3,970 ringgit/ton with a daily decrease of 0.43%, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.55%. The CBOT soybean oil futures closing price was 53.65 cents/pound with a daily increase of 1.71% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil futures decreased by 84,471 lots to 479,503 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3,330 lots to 428,231 lots. The trading volume of soybean oil futures decreased by 78,008 lots to 255,064 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7,148 lots to 550,375 lots. The trading volume of rapeseed oil futures decreased by 57,924 lots to 297,121 lots, and the open interest increased by 10,063 lots to 309,340 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 30 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,190 yuan/ton with no change. The spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,500 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 50 yuan. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,005 US dollars/ton with no change [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 94 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 218 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 23 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 1,141 yuan/ton, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 364 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread of palm oil futures was - 24 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil futures was 42 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil futures was 49 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Malaysia**: From June 1 - 30, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 0.23% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 0.65% month - on - month [2] - **Palm Oil in Indonesia**: In May 2025, Indonesia's exports of crude and refined palm oil reached 1.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 53%, and the export value increased by nearly 71% to 1.85 billion US dollars. In the first five months of this year, the cumulative exports reached 8.3 million tons, higher than 8.01 million tons in the same period last year [5] - **US Oilseed Processing**: In May 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 6.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 360,000 tons; the soybean oil output was 2.42 billion pounds, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 7%. The rapeseed crushing volume was 107,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53,182 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 35,629 tons; the rapeseed oil output was 84 million pounds, a month - on - month decrease of 35% and a year - on - year decrease of 28%. The output of US corn distillers dried grains (DDGS) was 1.776 million tons, lower than 2.003 million tons in the same period last year [5] - **South American Soybean Production and Exports**: StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to 168.75 million tons. Anec expected Brazil's soybean exports in June to reach 13.93 million tons and soybean meal exports to be 1.67 million tons. Argentina's agricultural exports in June increased by 87% year - on - year, with export revenues reaching 3.7 billion US dollars [6] - **EU Oilseed Imports**: As of June 29, 2025, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.79 million tons, lower than 3.49 million tons in the same period last year; soybean imports were 14.27 million tons, higher than 13.2 million tons in the same period last year; soybean meal imports were 19.25 million tons, higher than 15.28 million tons in the same period last year; rapeseed imports were 7.33 million tons, higher than 5.68 million tons in the same period last year [6] - **Indian Oilseed Planting**: As of June 27, 2025, the overall planting area of India's summer - sown and autumn - harvested crops increased by 11.3% year - on - year. The planting areas of pulses and rice increased significantly by 37.2% and 47.3% respectively, and the planting areas of oilseeds such as soybeans and peanuts also increased [7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [8]