【导读】全市场近百股涨停，大基建板块爆发 中国基金报记者 晨曦 7月21日，A股市场窄幅震荡。截至午间收盘，上证指数涨0.44%，深证成指涨0.29%，创业板指涨0.12%。 盘面上，大基建板块全面爆发，建材、钢铁、建筑、工程机械等板块集体走高，水利水电建设、水泥制造、西部大基建、稀土、宇树机器人等概念股火 热；光模块、稳定币、光刻机、AI算力等概念股回调。 全市场半日成交额为1.1万亿元，较上日略有放量，其中3539只个股上涨，99只个股涨停，1732只个股下跌。 港股市场早间高开，午前涨幅有所回落。截至午间收盘，恒生指数涨0.28%，恒生科技指数涨0.32%，恒生国企指数涨0.14%。美团涨2.75%，领涨恒生科 技指数成份股。 | 24895.20 | | 8999.25 | 5556.62 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 +0.28% | | 国企指数 +0.14% | 恒生科技指数 +0.32% | | 序号代码 名称 | | 现价 涨跌 涨跌幅 * | | | 1 3690 美团-W | | 130.80 3.500 2.75% | | | വ 9866 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.44% today, with significant trading volume and notable performance in the construction materials sector, which saw the largest gains among various industries [2]. Industry Performance Summary - The construction materials sector led the market with a gain of 4.41%, with a trading volume of 177.64 billion yuan, an increase of 126.30% compared to the previous trading day. The top-performing stock in this sector was Qingsong Jianhua, which rose by 10.08% [2]. - The steel industry followed with a 3.52% increase, trading at 148.10 billion yuan, up by 54.30%. Xining Special Steel was the leading stock, gaining 10.21% [2]. - The building decoration sector also performed well, rising by 3.38% with a trading volume of 267.83 billion yuan, an increase of 117.20%. The top stock was Zhongshe Consulting, which surged by 27.79% [2]. - Other sectors with positive performance included basic chemicals (1.78%), non-ferrous metals (1.65%), and coal (1.59%), while sectors like comprehensive, communication, and banking experienced declines [2].

Core Viewpoint - The official launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has led to a significant surge in the water conservancy and cement sectors, with related ETFs experiencing substantial gains in trading volume and price [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Market Performance - The E Fund Building Materials ETF (159787) saw a half-day increase of 8.23%, with a trading volume of 26.74 million yuan [2][3]. - The Building Materials ETF (159745) recorded a half-day trading amount of 234 million yuan, indicating high trading activity [1][3]. - Year-to-date, the Building Materials ETF (159745) has seen an increase of 23.1 million shares, with a change rate of 28.11% [2]. Group 2: Industry Price Trends - Many building material prices are currently at historically low levels, with the national average price of high-standard cement down by 31 yuan/ton year-on-year and 17 yuan/ton month-on-month [3]. - Float glass prices have decreased by 27.2% year-on-year and 6.1% month-on-month [3]. - The industry is expected to improve due to a combination of stable growth policies and an enhanced competitive landscape [3]. Group 3: Index Composition - The CSI All Share Building Materials Index includes listed companies involved in the building materials sector, reflecting the overall performance of these companies [4]. - Major weighted stocks in the index include Conch Cement (14.46%), Beijing New Building Materials (11.04%), and Oriental Yuhong (9.05%) [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the actual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 in China exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, compared to the forecast of 5.17% and the previous value of 5.4% [1] - The report suggests a focus on three main investment directions: technology AI+ led by Deepseek breakthroughs and open-source initiatives, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the continued rise of undervalued dividends [1] - The report indicates that the U.S. core CPI growth in June was below expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, compared to the previous value of 2.8% and the forecast of 3.0% [1] Group 2 - The report outlines that the Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) has received support through 15 reform measures aimed at creating a comprehensive policy loop covering the entire lifecycle of fundraising, investment, lending, insurance, and exit [2] - It notes that mergers and acquisitions on the STAR Market are highly concentrated among private enterprises, with 202 private companies forming the core of M&A activities, reflecting the board's focus on hard technology and nurturing innovative entities [2] - The report anticipates further breakthroughs in the "14th Five-Year Plan" regarding refined stratification mechanisms, diversified listing standards, optimized investor structures, and enhanced international collaboration [2] Group 3 - The report indicates that the banking sector's fundamentals are stabilizing, with a significant narrowing of net interest margin decline expected in 2025, projected at 1.34% for state-owned banks and 1.55% for joint-stock banks [10] - It emphasizes that the valuation recovery driven by the funding environment is a core logic supporting the current market trend, with continuous inflow of incremental funds boosting bank sector valuations [10] - The report recommends focusing on quality regional small and medium-sized banks, particularly Chengdu Bank and China Agricultural Bank, as well as China Bank and Postal Savings Bank among state-owned banks [10] Group 4 - The report discusses the strong growth potential of Hengxin Life, a leading company in biodegradable food service products, with a projected net profit of 2.58 billion to 3.74 billion for 2025-2027, corresponding to a PE ratio of 34 to 24 [18] - It highlights the company's extensive customer base, including major brands like Starbucks and McDonald's, which enhances its market presence and brand image [18] - The report notes that the company's production capacity has reached 9 billion units of paper and plastic food service products, with a new factory in Thailand optimizing its global layout [18] Group 5 - The report indicates that the education sector, particularly Xueda Education, is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for Q2 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 39% to 66% [20][22] - It emphasizes the recovery of the company's store opening pace, with the number of learning centers increasing from over 240 to over 300, indicating a positive market demand for personalized education [22] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 2.61 billion, 3.30 billion, and 4.08 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 19, and 15 [22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the construction and decoration sector [1]. Core Insights - The construction sector is experiencing a marginal decline in fixed asset investment, with a notable project, the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, commencing with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [2][11]. - Infrastructure investment for the first half of 2025 shows a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, while real estate investment has decreased by 11.2% [11]. - The report highlights that the overall industry is currently weak, but regional investments may gain momentum due to national strategic initiatives [2]. Industry Performance - The SW Construction Decoration Index decreased by 0.71%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index which increased by 1.09% [3][5]. - The best-performing sub-industries for the week were Professional Engineering (+1.12%), Central State-Owned Enterprises (+0.73%), and Decoration Curtain Wall (+0.18%) [6][9]. Key Company Updates - Xinjiang Communications Construction is expected to report a net profit of 205 to 305 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 185.97% to 325.47% [14]. - Zhejiang Communications Technology won a bid for the G2531 Hangzhou to Shangrao Expressway with a total bid amount of 4.222 billion yuan, accounting for 8.84% of its projected revenue for 2024 [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends low-valuation central state-owned enterprises such as China Chemical, China Railway, and China Railway Construction, while also suggesting attention to companies like China Communications Construction and China Metallurgical Group [2]. - For private enterprises, it highlights Zhi Te New Materials and Honglu Steel Structure, with a focus on companies like Zhongyan Dadi and Shenzhen Ruijie [2].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The construction index rose by 0.32% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.07%, indicating that the construction sector underperformed the market by 0.75 percentage points. Professional engineering, architectural design, and infrastructure sectors showed stronger gains [1][33] - Infrastructure investment continued to support the economy, with energy-related and water conservancy investments maintaining strength, while transportation infrastructure showed signs of recovery. For the first half of 2025, real estate development investment, narrow infrastructure, broad infrastructure, and manufacturing grew by -11.2%, +4.6%, +8.9%, and +7.5% year-on-year, respectively [1][13] - Recent disclosures of second-quarter orders from central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) indicate a recovery trend, with China Railway's second-quarter orders showing a year-on-year growth of 20.08%. The overall order situation for central SOEs is optimistic, suggesting a rebound in physical workload [2][27] Summary by Sections Macro and Micro Verification of Infrastructure Recovery - Infrastructure investment in June continued to provide support, with energy and water conservancy investments remaining strong, while transportation infrastructure showed signs of recovery. The year-on-year growth rates for real estate development investment, narrow infrastructure, broad infrastructure, and manufacturing from January to June 2025 were -11.2%, +4.6%, +8.9%, and +7.5%, respectively [1][13][14] Recent Order Disclosures from Central SOEs - Central SOEs such as China Railway, China Energy Construction, China Chemical, and China Nuclear Engineering reported a recovery in second-quarter orders. For instance, China Railway's first-half orders showed a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, with a significant increase in the second quarter [2][27][28] Valuation Perspective - As of July 18, the construction sector's PE (TTM) and PB (LF) ratios were among the lowest across all primary industries, indicating significant room for valuation improvement. The construction sector's PE (TTM) was 11.12 times, with a historical percentile of 48.50%, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300's PE of 13.39 times [3][30][32]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月20日 转债市场周报 资金配置转债需求依旧较强 核心观点 固定收益周报 上周市场焦点（7 月 14 日-7 月 18 日） 股市方面，上周权益市场延续上涨，英伟达 H20 芯片恢复对华供应、光 模块龙头企业业绩预告表现亮眼等催化下，通信板块表现靠前，创新药、 机器人相关行情带动生物医药、汽车、机械板块表现较好。 债市方面，上周债市窄幅震荡，尽管央行实行大额公开市场投放及买断 式逆回购，但受税期影响资金面仍有所收紧，6 月金融数据改善、权益 市场延续强势也对债市情绪形成压制；而 6 月经济数据显示内需依旧偏 弱则利好债市；周五 10 年期国债利率收于 1.67%，和前周基本持平。 转债市场方面，上周转债个券多数收涨，中证转债指数全周+0.67%，价 格中位数+0.91%，我们计算的算术平均平价全周+1.43%，全市场转股溢 价率与上周相比-0.91%。个券层面，博瑞（创新药）、博汇（算力）、 聚隆（机器人）、亿田（算力）、宏丰（合金材料）转债涨幅靠前；塞 力（创新药&业绩预亏）、广大（特种合金&已公告强赎）、华辰（变压 器）、濮耐（耐火材料）、联得（显示模组设备&已公告强赎）转 ...

Group 1: Company Performance and Growth - The company has seen steady progress in its operations during the first half of the year, with significant revenue growth needed to meet the 2025 performance targets [3] - The company aims to enhance its operational performance through domestic and international market expansion and continuous technological innovation [3] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve due to the rail transit business, with ongoing efforts to increase market share and profitability [3][4] Group 2: Business Segments and Strategies - The decline in revenue from the building decoration business is attributed to external environmental factors, with plans to innovate and upgrade equipment to meet customer needs [4] - The company is focusing on the development of sandwich lightweight composite materials, which align with national carbon neutrality strategies and are gaining traction in the rail transit and construction sectors [4] - Future overseas revenue and orders are projected to grow, with plans to strengthen the overseas marketing network and increase new product development [4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to concentrate on its core business of sandwich lightweight composite materials, aiming for multi-field applications and enhanced market presence [5] - There is a commitment to digital and intelligent transformation to improve management efficiency and promote sustainable high-quality development [5] - The company is cautious about expanding into a second core business or pursuing acquisitions, focusing on steady and sustainable growth while evaluating risks and opportunities [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical context of the A-share market, highlighting that every time the index breaks through the 3500-3600 point range, it is often followed by a strong bull market. The current situation suggests a potential new bull market, but the presence of over 300 stocks trading below their book value indicates challenges ahead for a comprehensive bull market [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Bull Markets - In 2007 and 2015, the A-share market experienced comprehensive bull markets, characterized by a significant reduction in the number of stocks trading below their book value, known as "破净股" [1]. - The ultimate goal of a comprehensive bull market is to eliminate these "破净股," which serve as an important reference indicator for market health [1]. - During the 2007 bull market, the number of "破净股" dropped significantly, with reports indicating that by March 2007, there were virtually no such stocks left in the market [1]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - As of now, despite the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, there are still over 300 stocks with a price-to-book ratio below 1, indicating a lack of upward momentum for these stocks [2]. - The sectors most affected by "破净股" include real estate, steel, and construction, with banks also showing significant numbers of such stocks, including Minsheng Bank and Huaxia Bank, which have price-to-book ratios below 0.5 [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The difficulty of making profits in the current market environment is increasing, with over 1400 stocks in decline despite a median increase of approximately 11.6% among A-shares this year [3]. - The market ecosystem has changed significantly compared to over a decade ago, with the introduction of the registration system and a substantial increase in the number of listed companies, now exceeding 5400 [3]. - The rise of quantitative trading, high-frequency trading, and algorithmic trading has created challenges for retail investors, who are at a disadvantage in terms of information and speed [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - In this context, ETFs have emerged as a viable option for retail investors, with total ETF assets reaching 4.3 trillion yuan, and individual investors increasingly participating in ETF trading [4]. - ETFs offer the advantage of diversifying individual stock risks and avoiding the pitfalls of high-frequency trading, thereby enhancing the probability of successful investments through passive and low-frequency strategies [4].

Group 1 - The core index, the CN Industrial Composite Index, has shown a significant increase of 5.77% over the past month, 11.65% over the past three months, and 6.12% year-to-date, reaching 2538.90 points [1] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of different industry securities from mainland Chinese enterprises, categorized according to the China Securities Index industry classification standards [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include CATL (6.36%), China Railway Shanghai Group (1.49%), China State Construction Engineering (1.15%), and others, indicating a diverse representation of key sectors [1] Group 2 - The market capitalization distribution of the index shows that Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 47.12%, Shanghai Stock Exchange for 44.98%, and other exchanges like Hong Kong and New York have smaller shares [2] - In terms of industry representation, the index is heavily weighted towards electric power equipment (29.21%) and machinery manufacturing (28.67%), with transportation and construction also holding significant portions [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December, ensuring the index remains relevant to current market conditions [3]