2月4日，国投白银LOF复牌后再度跌停，已连续三日跌停，现报3.825元，溢价率为64.6%。 受风险偏好回落、美元指数走软等因素影响，国际黄金和白银价格持续反弹，金价3日创下2009年以来最大单日涨幅。在随后的隔夜交易中，金银期货价 格继续反弹，金价重回每盎司5000美元上方。 3日，纽约商品交易所4月黄金期价盘中涨幅超过7%；3月白银期价重新站上每盎司80美元，盘中涨幅超过15%。 | 間大福 | 間六福 | ■ # # 周生生 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1566.00 | 1561.00 | 1570.00 | | 金条价格 1375.00 | 金条价格 1456.00 | 金条价格 1378.00 | | 周大堂 間大生 | 州 潮宏基 | 六福珠宝 | | 1566.00 | 1566.00 | 1564.00 | | 铂金价格 899.00 | 铂金价格 899.00 | 金条价格 1373.00 | | 老凤祥 | 命 老庙黄金 | 6 中国黄金 | | 1576.00 | 1571.00 | 1069.00 | | 足金价格 1576.00 | 金条价格 1396.00 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that coking coal futures are experiencing a significant upward trend, with the main contract rising by 3.05% to 1773.5 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] - Indonesian mining officials have announced a substantial reduction in coal production, leading to a halt in spot coal exports, with some companies facing a production quota cut of 40%-70% for 2026 compared to 2025 [2] - The first round of price increases for coking coal has been fully implemented, with a slight increase in inventory and improved purchasing willingness from traders following the price rise [2] Group 2 - According to Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures, environmental policies are restricting production at coking enterprises, and with upstream coal mines shutting down for the Spring Festival, the overall supply of coking coal is tightening [4] - Demand from downstream steel mills is weakening, with increased maintenance leading to low pig iron production and a slight accumulation of coking coal inventory as pre-holiday restocking nears completion [4] - Overall, the coking coal market is expected to experience a period of fluctuation due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on steel-coke profit margins and industry shutdowns [4]

摘要周三(2月4日)亚洲时段，贵金属止跌反弹，美联储释放降息信号、美国政府停摆结束及美印贸易协 议推进，叠加交易所调整风控措施，共同提振贵金属市场情绪，推动金银价格上涨。现货金银持续走 高，日内均涨超2%。现货白银站上88美元上方，现货黄金突破5070美元/盎司。 周三(2月4日)亚洲时段，贵金属止跌反弹，美联储释放降息信号、美国政府停摆结束及美印贸易协议推 进，叠加交易所调整风控措施，共同提振贵金属市场情绪，推动金银价格上涨。现货金银持续走高，日 内均涨超2%。现货白银站上88美元上方，现货黄金突破5070美元/盎司。 周二，美元指数震荡下行，盘中虽有反弹，但随后迅速回吐全部涨幅，最终收跌0.22%，报97.39；基准 的10年期美债收益率收报4.267%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.578%。金银在连续 两个交易日大幅下跌后强劲反弹，现货黄金开盘后迅速上涨，并冲回4900美元大关上方，欧美盘时段均 在4950美元上下震荡，盘中一度创下逾320美元的历史最大单日涨幅，最终收涨6.15%，创2008年11月 以来最大单日涨幅，报4945.74美元/盎司；现货白银盘中一度大涨超10%，并重回8 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been characterized by extreme volatility, with prices experiencing a "roller coaster" effect, dropping to $4,400 per ounce and then rebounding to $5,000 per ounce shortly after [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On February 2, gold futures fell sharply to $4,400 per ounce, reflecting the market's vulnerability amid high volatility [2]. - The surge in gold prices since January has led to a historical peak in volatility, with a significant increase in trading activity among short-term bullish traders [2]. - The nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair by Trump was identified as a trigger for the price drop, but the primary cause was attributed to forced liquidations and margin increases [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, have reduced their net long positions in gold from 35% to 22% since January 23, indicating a significant sell-off [2]. - Retail investors continued to buy at high prices, creating a scenario where institutions were "harvesting" profits while retail investors were left holding positions [2]. - Institutions sold off high-risk assets, including gold, to meet margin calls, further exacerbating price volatility [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Key support levels for gold prices are identified between $4,600 and $4,700 per ounce, which is crucial for maintaining market stability [4]. - If prices fall below this support range, further declines could target $4,400 to $4,500 per ounce, which is viewed as a strong support level by market participants [4]. - As the Chinese New Year approaches, physical demand for gold is expected to increase, potentially leading to a technical rebound if prices reach the identified support levels [4].

供给端，正信期货指出，上周国内碳酸锂产量环比减少648吨至2.16万吨。据SMM，受部分锂盐厂检修 影响，预计2月碳酸锂产量8.19万吨，环比减少16%。 2月4日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红。其中，碳酸锂期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约报 148160.0元/吨，涨幅1.97%。 需求端，首创期货分析称，随着储能行业发展迅速，储能对碳酸锂需求仍有支撑。1月底国家发改委、 国家能源局发布《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》，《通知》首次明确容量电价机制，鼓励长时 储能的建设运营，该政策或利好储能需求，进一步影响碳酸锂价格。 展望后市，东海期货表示，社会库存持续去库，强现实维持，但春节前备货需求有较大程度释放，对节 前行情支撑减弱。预计碳酸锂在高位震荡，耐心等待企稳后逢低布局。 库存端，据光大期货介绍，周度碳酸锂社会库存环比减1414吨至107482吨，其中下游环比增加3007吨至 40599吨，其他环节减少3590吨至47880吨，上游环比减少831吨至19903吨。 ...

Group 1 - The glass futures market is showing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 1085.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 1120.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a price increase of 3.82% [1] - Market sentiment is primarily loose, with short-term price increases influenced by trading emotions and hedging activities, but there is a caution to return to fundamental risks [2] - The overall trading activity is declining as downstream processing plants approach the end of their operations before the Spring Festival, leading to a stable supply and limited demand growth [2] Group 2 - The glass market is expected to continue its oscillating trend in the short term, with the main contract price range projected between 1025-1125 CNY/ton [2] - Recent news of cold repairs from various enterprises has led to a price rebound, but the overall market lacks strong driving factors, resulting in a prevalent wait-and-see sentiment [2] - Manufacturers are primarily adopting strategies of steady pricing and inventory reduction, with limited willingness to adjust prices significantly [2]

Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 China Futures Monthly Report 中国期货运行月报 2026/02/04 More English Reports on 【CITIC Futures International Service Platform】 https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Gui Chenxi 桂晨曦 CFA PhD Qualification No. F3023159 从业资格号 Investment consulting No. Z0013632 投资咨询号 Important Notice: This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business. The opinions and information provided are for reference only a ...

国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号:Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2026/2/4 | 指标 | | 2月3日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 473 | 23 | 2500 | == == | ===== 17/18 ===== 22/23 | ===== 18/19 == | ----- 19/20 - 24/25 | == 25/26 | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | | | | 2000 1000 | | | | | | | | 天津 | 453 | 43 | 1500 | | | | | | | | 日照 | 353 | 13 | | | | | | | | | 张家港 | 373 | 23 | -500 | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | | | 05/21 06/21 07/22 08/22 09/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 0 ...

印尼煤炭减产消息点评 供政策尚未退出,市场化交易的总量有限。如果印尼低卡煤 减量,动力煤市场重心会指高,但能否突破831的政策上沿, 自动力煤期货暂停,焦煤期货在2023年基准地转移到山西后, 参与者逐步从蒙煤贸易商,期现商扩展至山西地区交割库、 山西地区贸易商,甚至动力煤贸易商。同时焦炭限仓,关于 煤炭,从政策到期股联动,再期现联动的情绪化炒作,只能 全部宣泄与焦煤期货这一个品种。2025年炒作煤炭行业反内 卷,也是买消息卖现实的操作,政策对于煤价永远是红线。 数据来源:海关总署、印尼国家统计局、中国煤炭经济研究会、煤炭经济网、格林大华期货研究院整理 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288号 研究员：侯建 从业资格 F03126001 交易咨询：Z0023671 联系电话： (010)56711796 | | 中国进口印尼煤全口径 | | | | 印尼煤产量与出口 | 1. | 作为资源出口国,印尼原煤产量在2025年有所下降,出口量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 也同步回落。但参考过去几年印 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of "investment copper bars" reflects a lack of financial literacy and structural shortcomings in financial education, highlighting the cognitive dissonance and investment anxiety among ordinary investors in a complex market environment [1][12]. Group 1: Investment Trends - The surge in "investment copper bars" is a response to the rising prices of gold and silver, driven by a strong desire for wealth accumulation among investors [12][14]. - The pricing of "investment copper bars" is significantly detached from the actual market value, with premiums exceeding 80% compared to copper futures prices, indicating a lack of transparency and fair pricing mechanisms [17][18]. Group 2: Risks and Challenges - "Investment copper bars" lack a unified pricing mechanism and reliable exit strategies, leading to potential losses of 40% to 70% for investors upon purchase [13][15]. - The product is characterized by high volatility and low liquidity, making it a risky investment option that is not suitable for most investors [16][18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent volatility in precious metals prices, including a significant drop in gold and silver, serves as a reminder of the inherent risks in speculative investments like "investment copper bars" [16][17]. - The market for "investment copper bars" is described as a gray area with weak regulation, highlighting the need for investors to be cautious and informed [14][15]. Group 4: Investment Philosophy - Successful investing requires a deep understanding of market demands and cycles, as demonstrated by individuals who have achieved consistent returns through disciplined investment strategies [5][6]. - The essence of investment lies in recognizing genuine demand and maintaining a steady approach, rather than succumbing to market fads and speculative bubbles [5][6].