| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 # 泽辉 Z0019938 2025年12月9日 | | | | 臣沿 | | | | 12月8日 12月5日 涨跌 | | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 8600 8600 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 Y2601 8230 8266 | -36 | -0.44% | | Y2601 墓差 370 334 | 36 | 10.78% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏1月 01+260 01+260 | 0 | ﺗ | | 仓单 22994 22769 | 225 | 0.99% | | 棕榈油 | | | | 12月8日 12月5日 流跌 | | 旅跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8690 8740 | -50 | -0.57% | | 期价 P2601 8706 8770 | -64 | -0.73% | | 星差 P2601 -16 -30 | 14 | 46.67% | | 现货墓差报价 0 广东1月 01+50 01+50 | | - | | 盘面进口成本 广州港1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply side of oils and fats remains loose, and the prices are under pressure and fluctuating. The recent improvement of precipitation in Brazil, the good sowing progress in the producing areas, and the shortening of the La Nina impact window have led to good soybean supply expectations, which put pressure on the overall oils and fats market. Attention should be paid to the impact of the upcoming MPOB monthly report and USDA monthly report [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,706.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan or 0.73% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,230.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36.00 yuan or 0.44%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,502.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 116.00 yuan or 1.21% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.57%, and the spot basis was P05 + -36.00, a decrease of 14.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,400.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.00 yuan/ton or 0.47%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 170.00, a decrease of 4.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120.00 yuan or 1.22%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 248.00, a decrease of 4.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Information Agricultural Product Production and Supply - As of last Thursday, the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season has reached 94% of the expected area. The total corn production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 135.3 million tons, compared with 141.1 million tons in the previous season [2] - The natural rubber market in Malaysia is expected to be mixed this week due to supply concerns caused by heavy rainfall. The ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber production in 2025 will increase by 1.3% year - on - year to 14.89 million tons, while the demand is expected to grow by 0.8% to 15.57 million tons [2] Oilseed Processing and Import - In November, the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills in China was 9.01 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons month - on - month, 830,000 tons year - on - year, and 1.2 million tons more than the average of the same period in the past three years. In December, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China may decline slightly, but the current operating rate of oil mills remains high, and the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills in the whole month is expected to be about 8.6 million tons, an increase of about 400,000 tons year - on - year and about 300,000 tons more than the average of the same period in the past three years [2] Import Price Changes - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) increased by 12 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) increased by 10 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) decreased by 15 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) decreased by 15 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (January shipment) decreased by 3 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (March shipment) decreased by 4 US dollars/ton [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (January shipment) decreased by 5 US dollars/ton, the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (January shipment) decreased by 9 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (January shipment) increased by 5 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes also changed, with the Mexican Gulf (January shipment) increasing by 2 cents/bushel, the US West Coast (January shipment) decreasing by 10 cents/bushel, and the Brazilian port (January shipment) increasing by 30 cents/bushel [2]

农产品期权 2025-12-09 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花偏强盘整，谷物类玉米和淀粉偏多窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （ ...

现 货 价 格 | 日期 | 豆粕江苏 | 菜粕广东 | 豆油江苏 | 棕榈油广州 | 菜油江苏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/02 | 3020 | 2520 | 8550 | 8670 | 10020 | | 2025/12/03 | 3020 | 2510 | 8580 | 8680 | 10000 | | 2025/12/04 | 3020 | 2520 | 8520 | 8620 | 9890 | | 2025/12/05 | 3020 | 2500 | 8540 | 8720 | 9870 | | 2025/12/08 | 3020 | 2500 | 8500 | 8660 | 9760 | 蛋 白 粕 基 差 ： 油 脂 基 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/09 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售13.2万吨大豆 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售132,000吨大豆，2025/2026市场年度付运。 12月4日止当周美国大豆出口检验量为1,018,127吨，符合预期 美国农业部公布的 ...

2025年12月第1周，共计21个工作日，巴西累计装出玉米172.84万吨，去年12月为426.59万吨。日均装运 量为34.57万吨/日，较去年12月的20.31万吨/日增加70.2%。 美国农业部数据显示，截至2025年12月4日当周，美国玉米出口检验量为1452822吨，前一周修正后为 1630296吨，初值为1421258吨。2024年12月5日当周，美国玉米出口检验量为1068250吨。本作物年度迄 今，美国玉米出口检验量累计为20630119吨，上一年度同期12181196吨。美国玉米作物年度自9月1日开 始。 据外媒报道，针对行业分析师的调查显示，截至2025年12月4日当周，美国玉米出口检验量料为120-145 万吨。 本周二(12月9日)，国内期市谷物板块多数飘绿，其中，早籼稻期货主力合约一动不动，截止发稿，早 籼稻主力合约报2500.00元/吨。 市场资讯： 据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至12月7日，巴西一茬玉米播种率为71.3%，上周为 65.9%，去年同期为72.2%，五年均值为69.1%。 ...

白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/12/02 5565 5470 5415 183 267 446 183 2025/12/03 5545 5460 5410 179 266 446 183 2025/12/04 5525 5430 5380 197 255 435 183 2025/12/05 5505 5410 5370 202 258 438 183 2025/12/08 5505 5410 5345 168 252 432 1671 变化 0 0 -25 -34 -6 -6 1488 【行情分析】： 白糖：国产新糖供应陆续增加，本周糖厂报价下调较快，现货弱势带动盘面下行。短期原糖供应压力减少，盘面定价仍可参考国产糖成本和现 货价格；中长期若全球糖市过剩程度加剧，盘面向下寻找配额外进口成本。关注天气风险和政策变动。 | 农产品早报 | | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/09 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

五矿期货农产品早报 农产品早报 2025-12-09 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周一 CBOT 大豆下跌，巴西升贴水上涨，大豆到港成本小幅下跌。周一国内豆粕现货跌 10 元，华东报 3010 元/吨，豆粕成交、提货均较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 205.583 万吨，上周压榨大 豆 221.16 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 8.49 天环比上升 0.32 天，上周国内大豆、豆粕均去库，因到港量 及压榨量环比下滑，国内豆粕表需下滑程度相对较小。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，大豆种植率已达 94%。然而阿根廷主产区预计降雨量持续较少， 产区还未达到一帆风顺。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘 ...

Summary of Agricultural Products Market Outlook and Key Insights Industry Overview - The agricultural products market is expected to experience a cyclical upturn in 2026 after bottoming out in 2025, following a period of supply-demand mismatch and geopolitical risks post-pandemic [1][2] - The market has shown signs of supply-side contraction since 2022, with reduced planting areas for soybeans and cotton, and a decrease in pig production [1] Key Insights and Arguments - **Commodity Price Trends**: Agricultural product prices have returned to levels seen in 2018-2019, indicating a potential upward trend compared to the 2012-2016 cycle. The current market is viewed as the beginning of a new upward cycle, especially if oil prices remain stable [1][5] - **Soybean Market Dynamics**: The global soybean market is in a tight balance, with expected slight declines in production and ending stocks for the 2025-26 season. U.S. soybean exports are affected by U.S.-China trade tensions, but domestic consumption is increasing, leading to a projected price range of 1,050-1,250 cents per bushel in 2026 [1][9] - **Corn Market Outlook**: The U.S. corn market is projected to see record global production in 2025, with strong demand and exports reaching a five-year high. Domestic corn prices are expected to fluctuate between 2,050-2,450 yuan per ton in 2025 [3][11][12] - **Pork Industry Transition**: The pork industry is undergoing a cyclical transformation, with effective capacity reduction. The Ministry of Agriculture aims to limit the hog population to 39 million by year-end, with price expectations ranging from 10.08 to 14.50 yuan per kilogram [3][13] Additional Important Considerations - **Climate Impact**: The potential return of La Niña could negatively affect soybean yields in North America, necessitating close monitoring of geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and weather patterns [4][7][8] - **Investment Opportunities**: Current market conditions present a favorable entry point for investors, as demand is expected to stabilize and grow with the recovery of the global economy and increased bioenergy needs [5] - **Supply Chain Risks**: South American soybean production is crucial for China, and any adverse weather conditions could impact supply chains and domestic prices for soybean meal [10] Conclusion - The agricultural products market is poised for a gradual recovery, with key factors such as climate conditions, trade policies, and supply chain dynamics playing critical roles in shaping future price movements and investment opportunities [1][4][5]

在金融科技浪潮中，商业模式的创新与抗风险能力同样备受关注。香港远景未来投资管理股份有限公司 (下称"远景未来")近年来推行的一种"金融+实体"双轮驱动战略，引发了行业观察者的兴趣。这打破了 传统资产管理公司纯线上、纯金融的单一模式，试图在虚实结合中探索一条差异化的路径。 线上金融：科技赋能下的资管服务 远景未来的线上业务根基在于全球资产管理。公司宣称其业务覆盖能源、贵金属、农产品、股指等多元 领域。为支撑这项业务，技术成为了关键驱动力。公开信息显示，远景未来强调运用区块链、人工智能 与大数据技术开发智能顾问系统和风控模型。其自主研发的风险评估体系，据称能将项目识别的准确率 提升至较高水平。创始人王贵运作为拥有金融工程背景的专业人士，其技术驱动的理念深刻影响了公司 的发展方向。 分析人士认为，这种布局在商业逻辑上至少有两层含义：其一，实体产业能够创造真实的商品贸易利 润，理论上可构成独立于金融投资回报之外的收益来源，有助于平滑单一金融业务可能带来的波动。其 二，实体资产和品牌可以作为企业价值的直观承载，增强公众和合作伙伴的感知度，为整体业务提供某 种"压舱石"效应。 此外，公司还曾参与农产品采购助力乡村振兴，王 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market as a whole rose 0.97% last week, with precious metals leading the gain at 3.43%, non - ferrous and black metals rising 2.37% and 0.78% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemicals declined 0.32% and 1.08% respectively. The short - term commodity market may fluctuate as the expectation of interest rate cuts has been basically priced in [2][6]. - The short - term precious metals sector may experience high - level fluctuations, the non - ferrous sector may operate stably, the black sector may fluctuate weakly, the energy sector's price center has a downward pressure, the chemical sector may adjust with fluctuations, and the agricultural products and oilseeds sector may fluctuate weakly in the short term [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The overall commodity market rose 0.97% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 3.43%, non - ferrous metals rose 2.37%, black metals rose 0.78%, while agricultural products and energy - chemicals fell 0.32% and 1.08% respectively [2][6]. - **Top - performing and Bottom - performing Varieties**: The top - performing varieties were silver, copper, and pulp, with increases of 7.54%, 6.12%, and 4.85% respectively; the bottom - performing varieties were glass, eggs, and ethylene glycol, with decreases of 5.6%, 5.34%, and 4.17% respectively [2][6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to decline, and the volatility - reducing varieties were mainly concentrated in the agricultural products and energy - chemicals sectors [2][6]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale increased last week. Only the agricultural products sector had a small net outflow of funds, and most of the inflows were concentrated in the Shanghai copper contract [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook - **General Outlook**: The recent strengthening of the Japanese yen has suppressed the US dollar index. The US core PCE in September was slightly lower than expected, laying a foundation for the Fed to cut interest rates, which is also beneficial to US dollar liquidity. However, the Russia - Ukraine situation has reached a stalemate, bringing uncertainty to the continuous improvement of liquidity. The short - term commodity market may fluctuate [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The weekly initial jobless claims dropped to 191,000, far lower than expected, hitting a new low since September 2022, alleviating market concerns about the sharp deterioration of the labor market. Interest rate cuts have been basically priced in. After silver hit a new high, its upward momentum has slowed down. The short - term sector may experience high - level fluctuations [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The expectation of the US interest rate cut is gradually increasing, and the pressure of the US dollar index on the sector is weakening. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in December has improved, and the overall macro - environment is neutral to warm. Fundamentally, the inventory continued to decline last week, and the raw material supply remained tight, supporting the sector. However, as the price reached a high level, the support weakened. The short - term sector may operate stably [3]. - **Black Metals**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, production dropped significantly, and inventory continued to decrease. Steel mills' profits were still poor, and pig iron production continued to fall. There are many maintenance plans for steel mills in December, and pig iron production may further decline in the future. In terms of raw materials, the global iron ore shipment was relatively strong, and the port inventory continued to increase last week; the domestic coking coal supply was relatively stable, but the import volume increased significantly, suppressing coal prices. With the cost moving down, the short - term sector may fluctuate weakly [3]. - **Energy**: Last week, the geopolitical situation further heated up, and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan stalled, weakening the market's expectation of restoring Russian oil exports after reaching an agreement. EIA weekly data showed that US crude oil inventories increased, and gasoline inventories increased significantly more than expected. The news boosted oil prices in the short term, and the increasing probability of the Fed's interest rate cut also had a positive impact on oil prices. However, the expanding supply - demand surplus in the fundamentals still determines that the oil price center has a downward pressure [3]. - **Chemicals**: The polyester terminal weaving load continued to decline, and the supply - demand drive of the industrial chain was limited. There was insufficient drive for short - term price increases, and relevant varieties may adjust with fluctuations. For building materials, PVC continued to accumulate inventory, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration was compressed. The pattern of using alkali to supplement chlorine is not expected to last long. It is possible that PVC enterprises will increase maintenance in the future, alleviating the supply pressure; the glass production capacity continued to be compressed, but some glass factories postponed cold - repair plans, and the actual progress needs to be monitored [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: In the new South American season, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans is normal, while the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans is slow due to weather conditions. The domestic soybean meal spot supply remains loose, suppressing prices. The market currently estimates that Malaysian palm oil inventories will continue to increase in November, with high inventory pressure. The short - term oilseeds sector may fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the data verification of the USDA and MPOB reports [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Most gold ETFs had positive weekly returns, with returns ranging from 0.78% - 0.87%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 23.4263 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.38%, and the total trading volume was 756,101,805, with a growth of 15.76% [39]. - The energy - chemicals ETF had a weekly return of - 0.67%, with a scale of 16.99 billion yuan and a decrease of 3.47% [39]. - The soybean meal ETF had a weekly return of - 0.59%, with a scale of 26.28 billion yuan and an increase of 0.45% [39]. - The non - ferrous metals ETF had a weekly return of 4.30%, with a scale of 30.11 billion yuan and an increase of 8.10% [39]. - The silver fund had a weekly return of 7.33%, with a scale of 43.47 billion yuan and no change in scale [39]. - The total scale of commodity ETFs was 24.5947 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.52%, and the total trading volume was 1,467,321,985, with a growth of 18.70% [39].