1. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate in August improved to a tight balance, with the supply - demand gap continuously narrowing. It is expected to continue improving throughout the year, but the improvement will be limited. In the second half of the year, the growth rate of upstream supply is likely to remain stable, downstream demand still has some growth potential, and the cost side, especially the ore end, has little room for further decline. After recent sharp price fluctuations, the futures price is expected to stabilize, remaining above previous highs and mainly adjusting through wide - range oscillations [4][59]. 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review and Logic Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Trend Review - The main lithium carbonate contract in August 2025 showed a bullish - then - bearish trend, opening at 69,080 yuan/ton on August 1st and closing at 77,180 yuan/ton on August 29th, with a monthly increase of 11.73%. High supply led to high inventory, and the subsequent production increase of downstream cathode material factories was lower than expected. The cost of the ore end was also supported. The import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile decreased, and the mica mining licenses in Yichun, Jiangxi were about to expire, which briefly drove the market up. Without obvious signs of demand recovery, the futures price may have some downward space. The basis showed a clear trend. After the shutdown of the Xianxiaowo Mine on August 9th, the basis weakened rapidly, indicating that the futures price rose much faster than the spot price. From the 20th, as the sentiment of funds to boost prices weakened, the spot price led the futures price again. If there is no supply - side disruption and demand remains weak, the spot price is expected to have a slight premium over the futures price, and the basis fluctuation range will narrow [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Production**: - **Ore End**: In August, the production of domestic spodumene and lepidolite still faced cost - profit inversion, but their production trends diverged. Lepidolite production was affected by the mining license issue in Jiangxi, with the total output in August being 13,980 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.74%. Spodumene production was 6,670 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. The import of spodumene from Australia increased significantly in August, with an import volume of 576,138 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.73%. The price of spodumene and lepidolite continued to rise steadily. Lithium ore was in a state of slight supply shortage in August, and the inventory decreased slightly. It is expected that the supply - demand gap will continue to narrow in the second half of the year, and there is limited downward space for prices under the support of ore costs [7]. - **Lithium Compound End**: In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, and the dependence on Chilean imports declined. In August, the domestic production of lithium carbonate was 8,5240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The production was mainly battery - grade. The output from spodumene and lepidolite increased steadily, the output from salt - lake lithium extraction increased slightly due to warmer weather, and the output from waste lithium - battery recycling decreased significantly due to cost - profit inversion. The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate shifted from slight oversupply to slight shortage in August. It is expected that demand will recover in the second half of the year, and the supply - demand will remain in a tight - balance state. The production capacity of lithium hydroxide continued to increase, but the downstream demand was weak. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was obvious, and its price is expected to face downward pressure in the short term [13][14]. - **Cost - Profit**: The overall cost level of the ore end rebounded after reaching the bottom. The cost of enterprises producing lithium compounds from externally purchased spodumene was still high, mainly due to the ore cost. By the end of August, the cost of spodumene dropped to around 76,000 yuan/ton, and the processing cost rebounded slightly, with corresponding enterprises making small profits. The processing cost of lepidolite also rebounded, and the cost in late June recovered to around 80,000 yuan/ton, with corresponding enterprises in a continuous loss state. Salt - lake lithium extraction could still make a profit due to its low cost. The cost of waste - battery recycling remained stable, and the loss situation did not improve. Except for the salt - lake end, other production methods still had cost - profit inversion [24]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts in the exchange recovered rapidly after being cancelled at the end of July, and the current inventory is around 30,000 tons. Affected by the sharp price fluctuations of futures and spot in August, the downstream's willingness to take delivery was low, and the downstream inventory decreased. The upstream production enterprises also adjusted their production, and the overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased in August. For lithium hydroxide, the inventory of upstream and downstream decreased in August due to the reduction in supply, but the de - stocking rate is expected to remain low, and the price increase space may be limited [36]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Power/Energy - Storage Batteries**: The production of power batteries remained high and the price was stable under the background of high upstream supply and declining costs. The loading demand decreased in August due to weak terminal demand, and the support for upstream demand continued to weaken. The inventory of ternary power batteries increased slightly, and that of lithium - iron - phosphate power batteries remained basically unchanged. The inventory - sales ratio of power batteries showed a divergent trend in August. It is expected that the inventory de - stocking rate may decline to some extent in the second half of the year. The winning bid price and order volume of energy - storage batteries decreased in August, and the inventory - sales ratio was relatively low, with inventory pressure slightly higher than the same period in previous years. It is expected that demand will suppress the futures price in the short term [40]. - **Ternary Precursors/Materials**: In August, the prices and costs of ternary precursors and ternary materials rebounded, and the overall loss situation improved slightly but still remained in a loss state. As production increased slightly, the situation of supply surplus intensified. The 5 - series, 6 - series, and 8 - series materials still dominated. The supply - demand situation of ternary precursors improved limitedly under the background of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory de - stocking amplitude was restricted [41]. - **Iron Phosphate/Lithium Iron Phosphate**: Since June 2024, the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate has continued to increase, but the operating rate has been low due to weak downstream demand. The production has been at a high level, and the prices of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate have continued to weaken. The loss amplitude improved in August with the rebound of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices. The inventory remained stable, but considering the continuous high - level production, the subsequent production scheduling will still face pressure, and prices may be suppressed [50]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: In July 2025, the production of new energy vehicles was 1,243,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97%, higher than the historical average. The sales volume was 1,262,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%, higher than the historical average. The export volume was 22,500 units, a month - on - month increase of 9.76%, higher than the historical average. The dealer inventory coefficient was 1.35, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0699, lower than the historical average, and the terminal inventory decreased, which supported the demand for lithium carbonate. The dealer inventory warning coefficient was 51.8, a month - on - month increase of 1.3, lower than the historical average. It is expected that demand will strengthen in August and September, and the inventory will decrease. Overall, the production of new energy vehicles decreased in July, demand remained stable, and the dealer inventory increased. It is expected that the inventory will increase again in August. The weak consumption growth of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year may have limited impact on the upstream power battery and lithium carbonate sectors [54]. 3.3 Third Part: Supply - Demand Pattern Analysis - **Supply Aspect**: The cost - profit inversion situation of the ore end has improved, while the continuous cost - profit inversion of the recycling end limits the production increase. It is expected to support the futures price in the short term [57]. - **Demand Aspect**: In August, the production scheduling of power batteries remained stable, but the growth was limited due to lower - than - expected downstream demand. The demand for new energy vehicles recovered weakly, and the increasing dealer inventory pressure limited the support for the futures price. The growth of energy - storage equipment was significant, but its inventory - sales ratio was in a state of decline, and it is expected to have limited support for downstream demand [58]. - **Summary**: The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate improved to a tight balance in August, and the supply - demand gap continued to narrow. It is expected to continue improving throughout the year, but the improvement will be limited. In the second half of the year, the upstream supply growth is likely to remain stable, downstream demand still has some growth potential, and the cost side, especially the ore end, has little room for further decline. After recent sharp price fluctuations, the futures price is expected to stabilize, remaining above previous highs and mainly adjusting through wide - range oscillations [59].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent decline in lithium carbonate futures prices, which fell below 72,000 yuan/ton after peaking above 90,000 yuan/ton due to easing supply concerns and profit-taking [2] - As of September 2, the futures warehouse receipts for lithium carbonate stood at 32,007 contracts, with downstream production and sales showing strong performance, particularly in lithium iron phosphate and ternary precursor production [3] - The lithium carbonate production reached a new high of 85,000 tons in August, marking a 5% month-on-month increase and a 39% year-on-year increase, driven by the growth in spodumene extraction [3] Group 2 - The basic data indicates a slight decrease in lithium carbonate weekly production by 0.56% to 19,000 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 54% for smelting enterprises [2] - The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.29% to 141,100 tons, with upstream inventory down by 7.49% to 43,300 tons, while midstream and downstream inventories saw slight increases [2] - To manage price volatility, downstream enterprises can utilize futures tools for hedging, such as using put and call options to stabilize raw material procurement costs [4]

Group 1 - The market adjustment will not be abrupt, and the downside space is limited [2][3] - Recent market trends indicate a phase of adjustment due to previous rapid increases and the release of structural risks [3] - The current A-share market sentiment remains quite active, with trading volumes and margin balances frequently exceeding 20 trillion [4][5] Group 2 - A-share earnings have reached a confirmation point, entering a mild recovery phase, with significant structural differentiation [6][7] - The market is leaning towards growth, with technology manufacturing driven by the AI cycle and domestic substitution becoming a core engine [7] - The upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of October may serve as a watershed moment for A-share trends, with liquidity expected to drive continued growth [8][9] Group 3 - Two main investment themes to focus on include the "anti-involution" theme, with low valuations in lithium, photovoltaic, and chemical sectors, and the TMT sector, which historically leads market uptrends [9]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with lithium carbonate futures experiencing a significant decline of 2.64%, settling at 72,220.0 CNY/ton [1] Supply Summary - In August, Chile's lithium carbonate exports totaled 16,900 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 19.2% but a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1] - Exports to China accounted for 13,000 tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.8% and a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [1] - Despite production disruptions from Jiangxi's mica mines, the market maintains expectations of ample future supply due to lithium extraction from salt lakes and imported spodumene [1] Demand Summary - The traditional consumption peak season, referred to as "Golden September and Silver October," is approaching, leading to an increase in power demand and sustained high levels of energy storage demand [1] - Production remains stable among leading companies in the downstream cathode materials sector [1] Market Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, potential supply disruptions still exist, keeping lithium prices relatively firm, while demand remains robust, suggesting limited downside potential and a wide range of price fluctuations in the future [1]

碳酸锂日评20250903:波动仍大,持仓注意保护 | 较昨日变化 交易日期(日) 近两周走势 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-01 | 2025-08-26 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近月合约 收盘价 | 73280.00 | 75540.00 | 79260.00 | -2,260.00 | | 连一合约 收盘价 | 72660.00 | 75540.00 | 79140.00 | -2,880.00 | | 连二合约 收盘价 | 72640.00 | 75420.00 | 79020.00 | -2,780.00 | | 连三合约 收盘价 | 72640.00 | 75420.00 | 78700.00 | -2,780.00 | | 收盘价 | 72620.00 | 75560.00 | 79020.00 | -2,940.00 | | 砖酸包期货 3 成交堂(手) 活跃合约 | 620441.00 | 540295.00 | 559599.00 | 80,146.00 | | (元/吨) 持仓量(手) 1 | 348109.00 | 3 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - side disturbances are the main cause of the recent market. Although the lithium carbonate futures have dropped significantly and the spot price has continued to decline during the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional demand peak season, the downstream purchasing willingness remains strong. With the current futures price back to the level before the shutdown of Jiaxiaowo Mine, the expanding basis, the strengthening of the ore - end price support, and the entry into the demand peak season, it is expected that the further decline space of lithium prices is limited [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The lithium carbonate futures dropped significantly, and the market shifted to a back structure, mainly due to unconfirmed rumors of the resumption of a mine in Yichun, Jiangxi. The spot price of electric carbon decreased by 850 to 77,500. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the spot price continued to fall, but downstream purchasing willingness was strong, and the inventory cycle slightly extended [11]. - The price of Australian ore dropped by 20 to 860, and the price of lithium mica ore dropped by 30 to 1,920. The loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica expanded to 5,811, and the profit of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene narrowed to 50. The production of salt plants was affected under the price support of the ore end [11]. 3.2行业要闻 - Tianqi Lithium's 2025 semi - annual report shows that its lithium concentrate has a built - in production capacity of 1.62 million tons/year and a medium - term planned capacity of about 2.14 million tons/year. The built - in production capacity of lithium chemical products is about 91,600 tons/year, and the planned capacity is about 122,600 tons/year. The company is promoting expansion projects. The third chemical - grade lithium concentrate plant at the Greenbushes Lithium Spodumene Mine in Australia is expected to be completed in December this year. The 30,000 - ton/year lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu (which can flexibly adjust to produce lithium carbonate products) has been completed and entered the commissioning stage. A 1,000 - ton/year metal lithium and supporting raw material expansion project is under construction in Tongliang, Chongqing [12]. - Ganfeng Lithium stated on September 2 that its solid - state batteries have been trial - installed and mass - produced in some vehicle models and are used in products of well - known drone and eVTOL enterprises. The high - safety and low - temperature - resistant solid - state lithium batteries have been sent to an international well - known mobile phone company for batch verification. The company is promoting high - specific - energy solid - state batteries in new - energy vehicles, consumer electronics, energy storage and other fields, accelerating industrialization in consumer - grade scenarios such as drones, exoskeletons, and portable energy storage, and building a penetration path for professional equipment, high - end consumer electronics, and mass consumer goods [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) has successfully completed a placement agreement, fulfilling all conditions including obtaining listing approval, with the placement completed on September 2, 2025 [1] Group 1: Share Placement - The company issued a total of 40.026 million new H-shares at a placement price of HKD 29.28 per share, representing 9.02% of the enlarged issued H-shares after the placement [1] Group 2: Bond Issuance - The company has also completed the issuance of bonds, with a total principal amount of HKD 1.37 billion, which has been placed with no fewer than six independent subscribers who are professional investors [1] - The bonds were listed on the Vienna MTF operated by the Vienna Stock Exchange on September 2, 2025 [1]

Group 1 - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) announced that all conditions precedent for the placement agreement have been satisfied, including obtaining listing approval, with the placement completed on September 2, 2025 [1] - The company successfully issued a total of 40.0256 million new H-shares at a placement price of HKD 29.28 per share, representing 9.02% of the enlarged issued H-shares after the placement [1] - The total amount raised from the placement is approximately HKD 1.172 billion, with a net amount of about HKD 1.1685 billion after deducting commissions and estimated expenses [1] Group 2 - The bond issuance was completed on September 2, 2025, with a total principal amount of HKD 1.37 billion, placed with no fewer than six independent subscribers [1] - The initial conversion price for the bonds is HKD 33.67 per H-share, which is subject to adjustment [2] - If the bonds are fully converted at the initial conversion price, they will convert into approximately 40.689 million H-shares, representing about 9.17% of the enlarged issued H-shares and approximately 1.98% of the total issued shares [2]

Core Points - Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. plans to issue convertible bonds totaling HKD 1.37 billion and allocate 40,025,600 new H-shares at a price of HKD 29.28 per share to independent investors [1][2] - The issuance of new H-shares has been completed, representing 9.02% of the total H-shares post-allocation [1][2] - The convertible bonds have a conversion price of HKD 33.67 per share, which can be adjusted, and will represent approximately 1.98% of the total issued share capital after the H-share allocation [2] Summary of H-share Allocation - All preconditions for the H-share allocation have been met, and the allocation was made to independent professional or institutional investors [1] - Following the completion of the H-share allocation, the total number of issued shares will increase from 2,017,167,779 to 2,057,193,379 [2][5] - The public holding of H-shares will increase from approximately 20.01% to 21.56% post-allocation [2][5] Summary of Convertible Bonds - The convertible bonds were issued on September 2, 2025, and listed on the Vienna MTF [1][2] - The bonds were subscribed by at least six independent investors, confirming their status as independent third parties [2] - The potential impact on the company's share capital structure is outlined, showing the changes in ownership percentages before and after the H-share allocation and bond conversion [2][5]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's short position in Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares increased from 4.83% to 5.43% as of August 27 [1]