Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the impact of U.S. tariffs on China's export performance, particularly focusing on the electronics and integrated circuits sectors, as well as the overall trade dynamics between China and the U.S. [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Exports**: U.S. tariffs have led to a significant decline in exports to the U.S., with a reported drop of approximately 35%. However, the impact has started to weaken following recent U.S.-China trade talks, leading to improvements in the unit prices of electromechanical products, which may help restore profitability [1][3][4] 2. **Strong Performance of Integrated Circuits**: China's integrated circuit exports have shown robust growth, outperforming other electronic trade economies like Vietnam and South Korea. This indicates strong demand for electronic products despite the challenging trade environment [1][7] 3. **Sensitivity of Consumer Goods Exports**: China's exports of consumer goods to the U.S. are highly sensitive to tariff changes, while intermediate goods have shown resilience due to prior experience with trade tensions and government support [4][5] 4. **Emerging Industries Resilience**: New advantage industries such as lithium batteries and new energy vehicles have experienced growth in exports to the U.S. despite high tariffs, contrasting with declines in sensitive categories like solar products and food [5][8] 5. **Changes in Export Structure**: In May, the export structure of China was influenced by electromechanical products, cross-border e-commerce, and imitation shoes and bags. The demand for cross-border e-commerce has weakened, while new advantage industries like ships, integrated circuits, and automotive supply chains have shown strong external demand [1][6] 6. **Weakening Import Demand**: In May, China's import performance was negatively affected by a decline in demand for energy and mineral-related capital goods. The demand from ASEAN and African economies has also shown significant downturns, with the demand for integrated circuits from Taiwan being a key support factor [9][10] 7. **Global Manufacturing Stability**: Recent signals of tariff easing and stabilization in global manufacturing PMI have alleviated some external demand pressures. The improvement in the new export orders PMI for China indicates a potential recovery in external demand [2][12] 8. **Future Challenges for External Demand**: Looking ahead, external demand may face downward pressure, particularly due to the front-loading of demand from export and re-export activities. The government may focus on foreign affairs to mitigate these pressures, with potential incremental policies being deployed in the latter half of the year [12][13] Additional Important Insights - The notes highlight the importance of monitoring the potential disruptions in the electronic supply chain and the overall trade environment as global economic conditions evolve [7][12] - The resilience of new advantage industries suggests a shift in China's export strategy, adapting to the complexities of international trade dynamics [8][12]

Group 1 - The economic transformation has entered a "new stage" since 2022, characterized by a downward trend in the contribution of traditional sectors like real estate to the economy, leading to a divergence in economic indicators and a "two extremes" situation in industries [2][8][25] - The pressure in this new stage is increasingly focused on terminal demand, resulting in a weaker CPI while PPI remains under pressure, with overcapacity shifting towards downstream sectors [2][14] - The traditional policy framework's effectiveness is declining, necessitating a comprehensive "policy innovation" to adapt to the new economic landscape, which began in late September 2024 [2][36] Group 2 - The external shocks, particularly during the tariff phases, have accelerated domestic industrial upgrades, with significant shifts observed in industries like automotive and electronics [3][66] - During the Tariff 1.0 phase, industries transitioned from "import assembly" to self-sufficiency in core components, leading to a decrease in low-value-added exports and an increase in high-value-added exports [3][66][77] - Tariff 2.0 has primarily impacted low-value-added consumer goods, while high-value-added sectors have shown resilience, indicating that the tariff impacts align with the direction of industrial transformation [3][99][107] Group 3 - The new policy framework emphasizes high-quality development, focusing on high-level openness, "dual circulation," and sustainable growth, with a shift from investment-driven to people-centered approaches [4][122] - The "anti-involution" initiative is seen as a structural reform on the supply side, gaining increasing attention from both government and industry since late 2024 [4][36] - The service sector is identified as a critical area for absorbing structural employment pressures during the transformation process, with significant support needed to address supply shortages [5][54]

本文字数：981，阅读时长大约2分钟 2025.06. 09 作者 | 第一 财经 陈益刊 近期，一些消费者反映当地国家补贴无法领取引起了外界的广泛关注。恰逢"618"大促期间，消费 者担心，今年国补已经结束，后续不能再享受相关优惠。 笔者了解到，今年中央财政明确国补资金额度为3000亿元（不含地方部分），其中1620亿元已下达 至各省市，剩余1380亿元尚未下达，由此看来今年国补并未结束，大多数省份国补优惠活动也在正 常运行。 一些地方官员告诉笔者，有些地方无法领取国家补贴，一部分原因是少数省份对一些品类消费品暂停 了国补，属于正常的政策调整；还有一些省份由于消费者购物热情高涨，申报国补额度超过了当地政 府获得的现有额度，因此暂停国补，等待上级下达新一批国补额度。 为了提振消费，国务院去年下半年拿出1500亿元超长期特别国债资金，直接补贴消费者来推动家 电、汽车等以旧换新，消费者称之为国补。由于政策效果不错，今年国补资金额度提升至3000亿 元，补贴范围也扩大至手机等产品。 部分省份也可以统筹国补资金额度，适当回收一些国补资金闲置地区的额度，将其分配至国补资金使 用较快、管理较好的地区。在不同品类国补资金额 ...

今年1月和4月，两批共1620亿元用于国补的特别国债资金已经下达到地方。为了用好这笔资金，地方早 早启动今年国补活动，叠加商家促销活动，消费者热情高涨，致使一些省份国补资金额度申报进度很 快，甚至超过了当地获得的国补资金额度，客观上导致国补额度暂停或限流。 4月底的中共中央政治局会议提出，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政 策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。基于国补资金基本来 自于中央财政发行的超长期特别国债，笔者建议，可加快发行超长期特别国债进度，并及时下达地方， 尤其是向国补资金短缺、使用管理效果明显的地区倾斜，以弥补地方国补资金缺口，稳定市场预期。 部分省份也可以统筹国补资金额度，适当回收一些国补资金闲置地区的额度，将其分配至国补资金使用 较快、管理较好的地区。在不同品类国补资金额度中，也可以优化额度分配，将更多额度分配至消费者 需求最大的品类。 今年消费品以旧换新额度方面，中央财政拿出3000亿元，地方整体配套拿出300亿元。相关部门可以视 后续国补资金使用情况、市场需求、经济形势、资金安全管理现状等，提前储备增发超长期特别国债， 增加国补 ...

沉星月启：产业" 蜕变"vs政策 "革新"。 转型进入"新阶段"，面临的"新问题"。 2022年以来，转型进入"新阶段"，以地产为代表的传统链条对经济的贡献 出现趋势性下行，经济指标表现分化的同时，产业"冰火两重天"的情况常见。转型"新阶段"，压力更集中在终端 需求，导致PPI承压的同时CPI表现更弱，产能过剩领域转至中下游；更多供给转向海外的过程中，外贸板块内卷 更甚。 文 | 赵伟、屠强、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 屠强 摘要 转型新阶段，传统政策框架有效性下降，政策"革新"全面启动。 居、企业和地方政府在经历报表冲击的同时，不 同主体间互相影响、修复过程慢于过往周期。传统宏观调控手段的传导机制异化，政策"革新"必要性上升。2024 年9月底以来，政策框架全面优化启动；总量政策空间打开、结构性政策的针对性增强，新阶段的"供给侧改革"呼 之欲出。 产业"蜕变"已成"星火燎原"之势，居民信心筑底现象已现。 历经十余年，新动能占比已"初具规模"，高技术产业 在工业中占比达16.3%，渐成星火燎原之势；近两年悦己消费、体验消费等新消费形式不断涌出。2025年以来，节 假日居民出行意愿等指标，则显示居民短周期信心的 ...

一、市场回暖明显，手机出货量增长态势显著 在经历连续下滑后，2024年手机市场回暖，出货量迎来了反弹。全球方面：2024年全球手机市场迎来了反 弹，销量同比增长7.1%，结束了2023年创下的十年来最低点。 数据来源：公开数据，观研天下整理 随着全球市场回暖下，国内手机市场得益于技术创新驱动消费者换机需求的释放、市场复苏趋势、折叠屏 市场的爆发等因素也表现的活力满满，出货量增长态势显著。尤其是2025年以来，在国补政策及消费回暖 的双重推动下，手机行业迎来新一轮增长热潮。据中国信通院发布的数据显示，2024年我国手机出货量 3.14 亿部，同比增长8.7%；其中12 月出货量 3452.8 万部，同比增长22.1%。其中12 月出货量 3452.8 万 部，同比增 22.1%。智能手机出货量2.94亿部，同比增长6.5%，占同期手机出货量的93.6%。 2025 年 1-2 月，国内市场手机出货量 4690.5 万部，同比增长 1.9%。其中2 月出货量 1966.2 万部，同比增 长 37.9%。智能手机出货量4311.2部，同比下降1%，在同期手机出货量中占比91.9%。 数据来源：caict中国通信院， ...

Group 1: Economic Transformation and Challenges - Since 2022, the economic transformation has entered a "new stage," with traditional sectors like real estate showing a downward trend in contribution, with growth rates dropping from 4% to below 2%[18] - The pressure is increasingly focused on terminal demand, leading to a decline in PPI and weaker CPI performance, with midstream and downstream capacity utilization rates at 73.6% and 73.5%, respectively, lower than upstream at 79%[23] - The real estate sector's contribution to the economy has significantly decreased, with the housing price index in first, second, and third-tier cities dropping by 10.0%, 16.5%, and 18.7% from their peaks, respectively[31] Group 2: Policy Innovations and Structural Reforms - A comprehensive policy innovation has been initiated since late September 2024, focusing on supply-side structural reforms and enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies[40] - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to exceed 3% for the first time, reaching 4% in 2025, indicating a significant shift in fiscal policy[40] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, emphasizing the government's commitment to addressing corporate debt issues[40] Group 3: Industry Evolution and Consumer Behavior - High-tech industries have seen their value-added share rise to 16.3%, with the digital economy's core industry value-added accounting for approximately 10% of GDP, nearing the real estate sector's 14%[44] - Consumer confidence is showing signs of recovery, with indicators of short-term travel intentions improving, reflecting a shift towards service-oriented consumption[49] - The service sector is expected to absorb structural employment pressures, with significant support needed to address supply shortages in this area[7]

Group 1 - Chinese customers have a significantly higher demand for quality experiences compared to the global average, with 92% choosing brands based on expected experiences, far exceeding the global level of 70% [1] - 87% of Chinese customers are willing to pay a premium for better experiences, nearly double the global average of 46%, indicating that enhancing experience quality is crucial for attracting customers and translating into commercial value [1] - Emotional dependence is a core factor for successful customer experiences, with 73% of customers whose experiences meet or exceed expectations developing emotional ties to brands, compared to only 5% for those with unmet expectations [1][2] Group 2 - The primary driving force for customer experience in China is "pleasure," which is more significant than "certainty" and "fairness," reflecting the emotional value that Chinese customers place on their experiences [2] - Key factors enhancing "pleasure" include clear communication (57%), experiences aligning with brand promises (56%), and delivery quality (58%), while "fairness" relies on clear communication (61%) and promise fulfillment (58%) [2] - There is room for improvement in areas such as "control," "certainty," and personalization, as well as ESG aspects in the Chinese market [2] Group 3 - In terms of industry performance, the mobile phone (62%) and banking (61%) sectors in China excel in establishing emotional ties compared to global averages, while insurance (54%) and mobile operators (56%) lag behind [3] - The recommendation willingness (NPS) across various industries in China is higher than the global average, with mobile phones (53%) and banking (58%) showing particularly strong performance [3] - Chinese customers are more reliant on word-of-mouth recommendations for first-time purchase decisions (37% impact) compared to the global average of 23%, and customers acquired through recommendations are more likely to make subsequent recommendations [3] Group 4 - Brands should prioritize optimizing basic experiences such as communication and delivery quality while focusing on differentiated forces like respect and a sense of belonging [4] - Strengthening the emotional value related to "pleasure" and enhancing consistency across all channels are key to building competitive advantages in the Chinese market [4] - Despite the current low trust in AI applications, reasonable optimization could still become a potential breakthrough for experience upgrades [4] Group 5 - Overall, the Chinese customer experience market is characterized by "high expectations, emotional emphasis, and differentiation-driven" features, with brands needing to base their strategies on experience quality and emotional connections to continuously meet dynamic demands [5]

Industry Environment - The globalization of e-commerce has entered a new phase, with digital marketing becoming a key weapon for companies going abroad. From 2012 to 2021, China's cross-border e-commerce market grew 5.7 times to 14.2 trillion yuan, becoming a crucial support for stable foreign trade. The core capability for companies going abroad has shifted to digital marketing, with a projected growth rate of 19% in digital marketing [2] - Mobile phone manufacturers are experiencing a new wave of overseas expansion, focusing on the mid-to-high-end market. Brands like Honor, OPPO, and Xiaomi are achieving success in Europe and Southeast Asia through localized operations and ecosystem building. However, they face challenges such as policies, patent issues, and supply chain complexities [3] - Chinese tea brands are accelerating their expansion into the U.S. market, with companies like Luckin Coffee and Nayuki opening new stores and focusing on health-oriented product innovation [6] New Opportunities in Europe - The synchronous lifting of restrictions between China and Europe presents new opportunities for expansion. The European market is witnessing trends of consumption upgrading and green transformation, with 80% of consumers willing to pay a premium for sustainable products. Chinese companies are advised to enhance product quality and adapt to cultural differences [7] Trade Relations and Globalization - A pause in the tariff war has led to a new consensus on globalization. The U.S. has canceled 91% of additional tariffs on China, with a reciprocal response from China. This reduction is expected to alleviate foreign trade pressures in the short term, but the long-term strategy will shift towards regional and global layouts [8] Brand Building and Global Competition - Chinese brands are transitioning from "brand recognition" to "brand building," with a focus on global competition. Companies like Anker and Xiaomi are leveraging platforms like Amazon for efficient market penetration, while AI technology is enhancing advertising returns [9] Autonomous Driving and Technology Export - In the global tech race, China and the U.S. are leading in autonomous driving. Companies like Waymo and RoboTaxi are expanding globally, with RoboTaxi leveraging its experience in complex Chinese road conditions to enhance competitiveness [11] Home Appliance Industry Trends - The Chinese home appliance market is shifting towards high-end products, with major players like Haier and TCL focusing on brand strategies to enhance overseas performance. The industry faces challenges from homogenization, but smart, high-end, and branded products are seen as key drivers for future globalization [12] Smart Cleaning Robots Market - The global market for smart cleaning robots is expected to reach $21.01 billion by 2030, growing at an annual rate of 23.7%. Chinese manufacturers are strong in cost control but need to improve in multi-modal sensing and cloud AI technologies [13] Tea Beverage Market Expansion - Chinese tea brands are rapidly expanding overseas, with the global ready-to-drink beverage market projected to exceed $1.1 trillion by 2028. Companies like Mixue Ice Cream and Nayuki are adopting different strategies to capture market share [14] Automotive Industry Developments - Changan Automobile aims to accelerate its overseas expansion, with a target of 3 million vehicle sales by 2025, including 1 million in new energy vehicles [16] Internationalization of Chinese Baijiu - Moutai is transitioning from product export to brand and cultural internationalization, with overseas revenue expected to reach 5.189 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 19.27% [21] E-commerce Trends in Europe - TikTok Shop is rapidly expanding into the European market, with a projected e-commerce market size of $3.96 trillion by 2024. However, sellers must navigate challenges related to product quality and tax compliance [22] AI Industry Growth - Kunlun Wanwei has emerged as a leader in AI exports, achieving a revenue of 1.76 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with 94% of its income coming from overseas. The company is focusing on building an ecosystem around AI applications [25]

华为和小米作为手机行业引流，在汽车领域似乎也明争暗斗。余承东最新一份公开讲话疑似讽刺小米汽车，吐槽其质量和智驾能力都不行，却靠营销能力销 量远超华为合作品牌。小米董事长雷军作出回应，引用莫言一句名言"诋毁，本身就是一种仰望"作为反击，华为和小米吵架你支持谁？ 虽然余承东没有说哪个品牌，但至少前面一段话明显指向小米。"这个公司只做了一款车就卖爆"只能是小米，毕竟纵观整个汽车行业没有哪家品牌像小米一 样，只推出小米SU7一款车就已经成行业顶流，部分节点一辆车销量比华为"鸿蒙智行"四界加起来都多，，大多数时间小米SU7销量也远胜过鸿蒙智行，这 是让余承东最难接受的地方。 2025未来汽车先行者大会上，华为常务董事和终端业务负责人余承东吐槽，有公司只做了一款车就卖爆了，但它产品质量和智驾能力都不行。成功的原因只 是其拥有强大的品牌能力、强大的营销能力，在互联网时代一款产品就能打爆。华为无论质量还是智驾能力都更好，体验和性能也更好，方方面面都比它 好，但就是卖不过它，甚至卖不过它的零头，在今天这个时代，确实没办法。 同时，余承东还讲了另外一段话，知道说出来可能会引发很大争议，媒体助理一直希望不要在公开场合讲出，但还是忍 ...