Core Viewpoint - Songyuan Industrial plans to establish an advanced integrated packaging system (OPS) production facility in Saudi Arabia, reinforcing its global strategy and commitment to the polyolefin industry [1] Group 1: Investment and Expansion - The new factory is expected to be completed by 2028 and will be wholly owned by Songyuan, producing a range of SONGNOX OPS high-performance additive mixtures [1] - This investment aims to enhance local production capabilities and ensure shorter delivery times for high-quality OPS products to customers in Saudi Arabia [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - The factory will support the growing polyolefin market in the Middle East by expanding local capacity and improving supply chain flexibility [1] - The CEO of Songyuan emphasized that this investment is a significant step in expanding the global OPS business and aligns with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 [1] Group 3: Operational Excellence - The new facility is strategically located to complement the existing production network and enhance service capabilities for customers in Saudi Arabia [1] - The commitment to operational excellence and sustainable development is highlighted by the regional manager for the Middle East, Africa, and India [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Options Strategy Morning Report [1] - Date: October 14, 2025 - Research Scope: Energy (crude oil, LPG), polyolefins (polypropylene, PVC, plastic, styrene), polyester (PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip), alkali chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash), others (rubber) [2] - Strategy Suggestion: Build option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] Group 2: Market Conditions of Underlying Futures - Crude oil (SC2512): Latest price 454, up 0 (0.02%), trading volume 6.51 million lots (+ 3.49 million), open interest 3.11 million lots (+ 0.33 million) [3] - LPG (PG2511): Latest price 4,121, up 52 (1.28%), trading volume 5.24 million lots (- 0.56 million), open interest 5.86 million lots (- 0.44 million) [3] - Methanol (MA2512): Latest price 2,319, up 0 (0.00%), trading volume 4.95 million lots (+ 1.18 million), open interest 4.02 million lots (+ 0.22 million) [3] - And other varieties with detailed price, change, volume, and open - interest data provided [3] Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Open - Interest PCR - Crude oil: Volume PCR 1.11 (+ 0.41), Open - interest PCR 0.56 (- 0.03) [4] - LPG: Volume PCR 0.52 (- 0.13), Open - interest PCR 0.48 (- 0.07) [4] - Methanol: Volume PCR 0.68 (+ 0.01), Open - interest PCR 0.65 (+ 0.06) [4] - And other varieties with corresponding PCR data [4] Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Crude oil: Pressure point 570, support point 440 [5] - LPG: Pressure point 4,700, support point 4,050 [5] - Methanol: Pressure point 2,300, support point 2,250 [5] - And other varieties with their respective pressure and support levels [5] Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Crude oil: At - the - money implied volatility 27.545%, weighted implied volatility 35.73% (+ 3.29%), historical average 37.02% [6] - LPG: At - the - money implied volatility 16.82%, weighted implied volatility 22.03% (+ 1.86%), historical average 24.00% [6] - Methanol: At - the - money implied volatility 17.03%, weighted implied volatility 19.61% (+ 3.13%), historical average 21.83% [6] - And other varieties with implied volatility data [6] Group 6: Option Strategies for Different Varieties Crude Oil - Fundamental: OPEC+ started a new round of production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day in October, market worries about long - term supply surplus, and the production increase cycle will continue until next year. The situation in the Middle East has eased [7] - Market Analysis: Since July, it has been weak, with a downward trend in October [7] - Option Factors: Implied volatility fluctuates above the average; Open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates a weak market; Pressure point 570, support point 440 [7] - Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Sell a neutral call + put option combination; Spot long - hedging strategy: Build a long collar strategy [7] LPG - Fundamental: PDH device maintenance is stable, but profit is declining. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will decline after entering the peak season [9] - Market Analysis: After a decline in July, it has shown an oversold rebound with pressure [9] - Option Factors: Implied volatility drops to near the average; Open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates a weak market; Pressure point 4,700, support point 4,050 [9] - Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Sell a neutral call + put option combination; Spot long - hedging strategy: Build a long collar strategy [9] Other Varieties - Similar analysis and strategy suggestions are provided for methanol, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, rubber, polyester products, caustic soda, soda ash, and urea [9][10][11][12][13][14] Group 7: Charts - Charts for each variety include price trends, trading volume and open - interest, PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility cones, and pressure and support levels [15][36][56][75][94][113][133][152][170][188]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: October 14, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current supply-demand imbalance in the polyolefin market continues to suppress prices. Although some upstream enterprises have increased maintenance due to lower-than-expected peak-season demand, the expected reduction in maintenance losses from September to November and new capacity planned for the fourth quarter will keep supply pressure high. After the holiday, social inventories have increased, and while there is still some demand resilience in October, new orders are limited, making it difficult to reduce inventories. With the upward revision of crude oil supply expectations and potential accelerated inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, cost support is weak, and polyolefins are under pressure [6]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Outlook - LLDPE L2601 opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 6,983 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton (-0.98%), with a trading volume of 280,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 6,917 lots to 564,785 lots. PP2601 closed at 6,693 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan (-0.61%), with an increase in open interest of 8,393 lots to 643,300 lots. Linear futures opened lower and fluctuated, dampening trading sentiment. Traders' quotes continued to weaken, and downstream buyers mainly purchased on demand with a cautious attitude [6]. 2. Industry News - On October 13, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 840,000 tons, a 20,000-ton increase (2.44%) from the previous working day, compared to 880,000 tons in the same period last year. - The PE market price declined weakly. The LLDPE price in North China was 6,980 - 7,250 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,050 - 7,600 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,200 - 7,680 yuan/ton. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 6,200 - 6,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Downstream products faced cost pressure, and with the decline in propylene prices, downstream factories were cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak overall demand. Producers mainly sold at discounted prices, and the quoted price decline was relatively significant. - The PP market continued to decline, with some prices dropping by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. Futures fluctuated narrowly with significant upward resistance, further increasing market concerns. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6,550 - 6,620 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,550 - 6,680 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,530 - 6,680 yuan/ton [7][8]. 3. Data Overview - Not summarized in detail as only data sources and chart names are provided [11][12][14][15][16][17][18]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, it is recommended to wait and see, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - **Methanol**: Affected by rumors of Iranian plant shutdowns and some warehouses not accepting Iranian ships' cargo, the 1 - 5 spread has strengthened from a low level, and the futures price has stabilized. However, the actual fundamentals are weak, with high domestic supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The cost - performance of short - selling is not high, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Urea**: After the holiday, the futures price has dropped significantly, and the spot price has dropped less. The supply pressure has increased, and the demand is weak. It is in a situation of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Rubber**: Affected by macro factors, the rubber price has broken down in the short - term. Referring to the April 2025 trend, there may be a 1 - 3 - day decline cycle. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - build the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [17]. - **PVC**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, but the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is poor. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [21]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The spot and futures prices of styrene have declined, but the basis has strengthened. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory is decreasing, and the price may stop falling [24]. - **Polyethylene**: The futures price has declined. The cost - end support has weakened, but the inventory is high. The demand is expected to pick up seasonally, and the price may remain in a low - level shock [27]. - **Polypropylene**: The futures price has declined. The supply pressure is high, the demand has a seasonal rebound, and the inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [30]. - **PX**: The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance. The PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. - **PTA**: The supply side has a high maintenance volume, and the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand side has a high load, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [33]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic and overseas device loads are high, the supply is high, the import volume is increasing, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to short on rallies [36]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 12.50 yuan/barrel, a 2.68% decline, at 453.70 yuan/barrel. Chinese crude oil weekly data showed a decrease in arrival inventory by 0.29 million barrels to 211.81 million barrels, a 0.14% decline; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.63 million barrels to 91.39 million barrels, a 0.69% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.72 million barrels to 103.95 million barrels, a 0.70% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.35 million barrels to 195.34 million barrels, a 0.70% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, waiting for OPEC's reaction to falling oil prices [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 55 yuan, in Inner Mongolia by 2.5 yuan, and in southern Shandong by 20 yuan. The 01 - contract price increased by 35 yuan to 2342 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 42. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 32 to - 12 [5]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to weak fundamentals but limited downside space [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The Shandong spot price decreased by 10 yuan, and the Henan spot price decreased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract price increased by 13 yuan to 1610 yuan, and the basis was - 100. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 1 to - 68 [8]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see because of low valuation and weak drive [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Affected by the US tariff statement, global risk asset prices dropped. The tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday. As of October 9, 2025, the all - steel tire开工率 in Shandong was 46.38%, 6.08 percentage points lower than last week and 3.30 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the semi - steel tire开工率 was 50.87%, 9.10 percentage points lower than last week and 23.72 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.112 million tons, a 0.1 - million - ton decrease, a 1% decline [13][15]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or short - term operation, and partially re - build the hedge position [17]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 14 yuan to 4721 yuan. The Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4610 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 111 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan decrease. The 1 - 5 spread was - 318 yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased by 50 yuan to 2450 yuan/ton. The overall开工率 was 82.6%, a 1.2% increase. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, an 8.4 - million - ton increase, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons, a 5.5 - million - ton increase [19]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies due to strong supply and weak demand [21]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The styrene spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 6700 yuan/ton, and the active - contract closing price decreased by 53 yuan to 6690 yuan/ton. The basis was 10 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan increase. The BZN spread was 129.25 yuan/ton, a 3.5 - yuan increase. The upstream开工率 was 73.61%, a 0.41% increase. The Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 was 38.54%, a 0.87% decrease [23]. - **Strategy**: The price may stop falling due to the decreasing port inventory and the upward - repair potential of the BZN spread [24]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price decreased by 54 yuan to 6983 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 7040 yuan/ton. The basis was 57 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan increase. The upstream开工率 was 81.1%, a 0.28% decrease. The production enterprise inventory increased by 10.59 million tons to 48.86 million tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.73 million tons to 5.40 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 44.36%, a 0.23% increase [26]. - **Strategy**: The price may remain in a low - level shock due to weak cost - end support and expected seasonal demand recovery [27]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price decreased by 29 yuan to 6693 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 20 yuan to 6730 yuan/ton. The basis was 37 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan increase. The upstream开工率 was 77.06%, a 1.46% decrease. The production enterprise inventory increased by 16.11 million tons to 68.14 million tons, the trader inventory increased by 6.11 million tons to 26.11 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.22 million tons to 6.87 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 51.76%, a 0.05% increase [29]. - **Strategy**: High supply pressure, seasonal demand rebound, and high inventory, with high warehouse receipts suppressing the market [30]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract decreased by 46 yuan to 6458 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 7 dollars to 791 dollars. The basis was 16 yuan, a 15 - yuan decrease. The 11 - 1 spread was 28 yuan, a 4 - yuan increase. The Chinese PX load was 87.4%, a 1% increase, and the Asian load was 79.9%, a 1.9% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted, and one Japanese plant was under maintenance. The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. In early October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 12.7 million tons, a 2.1 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of August was 3.918 million tons, a 0.019 - million - ton increase month - on - month [32]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high load, expected inventory accumulation, and neutral - low valuation [33]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 24 yuan to 4510 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 4440 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan, a 6 - yuan decrease. The 1 - 5 spread was - 54 yuan, a 2 - yuan decrease. The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. Some plants adjusted their loads. The downstream load was 91.5%, unchanged. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving loads were unchanged. The social inventory on October 10 was 2.16 million tons, a 0.053 - million - ton increase [33]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see because of high supply - side maintenance, limited processing fee space, and weak terminal signs [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 11 yuan to 4111 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 1 yuan to 4207 yuan. The basis was 69 yuan, a 1 - yuan increase. The 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan, an 11 - yuan increase. The supply - side load was 75.1%, a 1.6% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. The downstream load was 91.5%, unchanged. The import arrival forecast was 8 million tons, and the East China departure was 0.9 million tons per day from October 11 - 12. The port inventory increased by 3.4 million tons to 54.1 million tons [35]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies due to high supply, increasing imports, and expected inventory accumulation [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Methanol - The methanol market presents a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors. The 01 contract fluctuates between current pressure and future expectations. Supply - some inland plants are expected to resume production, but the relatively healthy inventory structure in the inland area supports prices. Demand - traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the expected commissioning of new polyolefin plants suppresses MTO demand. Attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction due to overseas gas restrictions in mid - October, as well as overseas plant operations, sanctions on Iranian vessels, and actual import arrivals [1]. Polyolefin - Polyolefins still face significant post - holiday inventory pressure. On the supply side, PE's operating rate is rising, with few planned maintenance, and long - term supply pressure is prominent due to domestic production growth and overseas year - end inventory clearance. For PP, its valuation has been repaired due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil, and the restart rhythm of plants needs attention. In October, new plant commissioning pressure is high, and demand lacks highlights. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, domestic load remains high, while demand is weak due to low PTA processing fees, delayed commissioning of new PTA plants, and multiple PTA plants' maintenance plans. In the fourth quarter, PX supply - demand is expected to be weak, and prices are under pressure. Strategies include bearish trading on PX1 following crude oil price rebounds and reverse calendar spreads. For PTA, supply is expected to shrink, but the basis repair is limited due to loose spot circulation and weak medium - term supply - demand expectations. Absolute prices are dragged down by weak oil prices and tariff policy uncertainties. Strategies include bearish trading on TA following crude oil price rebounds and rolling reverse calendar spreads for TA1 - 5. For ethylene glycol, port arrivals are high, new plant production is increasing, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in October, with a weak supply - demand structure in the far - month. Strategies include shorting EG01, selling out - of - the - money call options on EG2601 - C - 4350, and reverse calendar spreads for EG1 - 5. For short - fiber, supply is high, and demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to tariffs and weak oil prices. However, low inventory provides some support. Strategies include the same trading as PTA for PF11, and the PF processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100. For bottle - chips, demand is in the traditional off - season, and it is likely to enter the inventory accumulation period. PR follows cost fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to improve slightly. Strategies include the same trading as PTA for PR, and the PR main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [6]. Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, supply is expected to remain high due to the resumption of some plants and new capacity commissioning. Demand is weak as most downstream products are in loss, and some downstream plants plan to reduce production. However, port inventory is decreasing. In October, the overall supply - demand is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Strategies include trading BZ2603 in line with styrene and crude oil price fluctuations. For styrene, supply is expected to increase due to new plant commissioning and the resumption of some plants. Although some plants may shut down for maintenance, it is difficult to offset the new supply. Demand decreased during the holiday but is expected to recover gradually. However, downstream profit pressure and high inventory may limit demand support. The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and prices are under pressure. Strategies include bearish trading on EB11 price rebounds [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, post - holiday inventory has increased significantly, and spot trading is light. Downstream non - aluminum inventory is being digested, and there may be some purchasing demand at low prices. The main alumina downstream has high inventory and low restocking willingness, and the future purchase price may be lowered. In the short term, caustic soda demand lacks support and is weak, but there is medium - to - long - term demand support from alumina's future commissioning. Short - term trading can be bearish, and downstream restocking rhythm needs to be tracked. For PVC, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Supply is at a high level, and demand shows no obvious improvement during the peak season, with a continuous contraction in profile demand. However, exports relieve some of the oversupply pressure. Cost provides some bottom - line support. After the holiday, attention should be paid to cost support and downstream demand performance [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2307 on October 10, up 17 (0.74%) from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2351, up 5 (0.21%). The MA15 spread was - 44, up 12 (- 21.43%). The Taicang basis was - 136, unchanged. In terms of spot prices, the Inner Mongolia northern line was 2068 yuan/ton, down 15 (- 0.72%); Henan Luoyang was 2195, down 5 (- 0.23%); Taicang port was 2215, up 5 (0.23%). The regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia northern line was 148, up 20 (15.69%); between Taicang and Luoyang was 20, up 10 (100%) [1]. Inventory - Mid - sized methanol enterprises' inventory was 33.94 (6.08% increase); methanol port inventory was 154.3 million tons, up 5.1 (3.42%); social inventory was 188.3, up 7.05 (3.89%) [1]. Operating Rates - Upstream: domestic enterprises' operating rate was 78%, up 0.78 (1.01%); overseas enterprises in Shanghai was 72.1%, up 3.65 (5.33%); northwest enterprises' sales - to - production ratio was 104%, up 3.99 (3.99%). Downstream: the operating rate of externally - purchased MTO plants was 86.28%, up 3.82 (4.63%); formaldehyde was 30.1%, down 2.7 (- 8.22%); acetic acid was 85.1%, down 0.83 (- 0.97%); MIBE + was 66.2%, down 0.39 (- 0.59%) [1]. Polyolefin Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 7037 on October 10, down 40 (- 0.57%); L2509 closed at 7124, down 34 (- 0.47%); PP2601 closed at 6722, down 23 (- 0.34%); PP2509 closed at 6782, down 25 (- 0.37%). The L2509 - 2601 spread was 87, up 6 (7.41%); PP2509 - 2601 was 60, down 2 (- 3.23%). Spot prices: East China PP fiber was 6630, down 20 (- 0.75%); North China LLDPE film was 6980, down 50 (- 0.71%) [5]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory was 48.9 million tons (27.67% increase), and social inventory was 52.5, down 1.03 (- 1.93%). PP enterprise inventory was 68.1 million tons (30.96% increase), and trader inventory was 26.1, up 7.39 (39.48%) [5]. Operating Rates - PE: the operating rate of plants was 83.9%, up 1.85 (2.26%); downstream weighted operating rate was 44.4%, up 0.23 (0.52%). PP: the operating rate of plants was 77.7%, up 1.14 (1.5%); powder plants was 39.3%, up 2.01 (5.4%); downstream weighted operating rate was 51.8%, up 0.05 (0.1%) [5]. Polyester Industry Chain Prices and Spreads - Crude oil and related products: Brent crude oil (December) was $62.73/barrel, down $2.49 (- 3.8%); WTI crude oil (November) was $58.90/barrel, down $2.61 (- 4.2%). PX - related: CFR China PX was $809/ton, down $11 (- 1.4%); PX spot price (in RMB) was 6504 yuan/ton, down 82 (- 1.2%). Polyester products: POY150/48 price was 6770 yuan/ton, unchanged; DTY150/48 was 7850 yuan/ton, down 20 (- 0.3%); polyester bottle - chip price was 5766 yuan/ton, down 23 (- 0.4%) [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory was 50.7 million tons, up 24.0% from September 22; the expected arrival was 8.0 million tons, down 15.4 (- 65.8%). Operating rates: Asian PX was 79.9%, up 1.9%; PTA was 74.4%, down 2.4 (- 3.1%); MEG was 75.1%, up 2.7%; polyester comprehensive was 91.5%, up 1.2% [6]. Benzene - Styrene Prices and Spreads - Upstream: Brent crude oil (November) was $62.73/barrel, down $2.49 (- 3.8%); WTI crude oil (October) was $58.90/barrel, down $2.61 (- 4.2%); CFR Japan naphtha was $577/ton, down $7 (- 1.2%); CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $785/ton, down $20 (- 2.5%). Benzene - styrene: styrene East China spot was 6750 yuan/ton, down 80 (- 1.2%); EB2510 was 6670 yuan/ton, down 52 (- 0.8%); EB2511 was 6743 yuan/ton, down 75 (- 1.1%) [7]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Inventory: pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 9.10 million tons, down 1.50 (- 14.2%); styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 20.19 million tons, up 0.44 (2.2%). Operating rates: Asian pure benzene was 80.1%, up 1.1%; domestic pure benzene was 79.3%, up 0.6%; domestic hydrogenated benzene was 78.0%, unchanged; styrene was 73.2%, down 0.1% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Prices and Spreads - Caustic soda: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2546.9 yuan/ton, up 46.9 (1.9%); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2600.0 yuan/ton, unchanged. PVC: East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price was 4640.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 4900.0 yuan/ton, down 50.0 (- 1.0%) [8]. Supply and Demand - Supply (operating rates): caustic soda industry was 88.2%, up 1.4 (1.6%); PVC total was 80.8%, up 4.7 (6.2%). Demand: caustic soda downstream - alumina industry was 83.4%, down 0.3 (- 0.3%); PVC downstream - Longzhong sample profile operating rate was 15.9%, down 23.0 (- 59.2%) [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.7, up 0.1 (0.3%); PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.4, up 6.6 (20.5%); PVC total social inventory was 55.7, up 2.2 (4.2%) [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The research report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - For methanol, with the return of concentrated domestic installations, high production profits, and increased imports, supply pressure is high. Demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. However, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price dropped less. Supply pressure increased, demand was weak, and inventory rose. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. - For rubber, affected by the macro - environment, the rubber price broke down in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, although the spot and futures prices are falling, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the port inventory may decline, and the price may stop falling [19]. - For polyethylene, cost support exists, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the price may fluctuate upward [22]. - For polypropylene, supply pressure remains, demand is seasonally rebounding from a low level, and inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [25]. - For PX, the load remains high, downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls, and the expected PX inventory accumulation cycle will continue. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. - For PTA, the supply - side overhaul volume is high, the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures fell 6.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.45%, to 461.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.27 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.31 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.12 million barrels, naphtha inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels, and aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.39 million barrels. The total refined oil inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, and verify OPEC's export - price - support intention when oil prices fall [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang fell 3 yuan, in Inner Mongolia fell 5 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 17 yuan to 2307 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 12 to - 44 [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the current short - selling cost - effectiveness is low [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong fell 20 yuan, and in Henan fell 30 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market fell 12 yuan to 1597 yuan, and the basis was - 57. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1 to - 69 [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Affected by the US tariff statement, global risk asset prices dropped. Forecasted rainfall in Thailand and other places will increase in the next 7 - 14 days. Tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday. As of October 9, 2025, the all - steel tire开工率 in Shandong was 46.38%, and the semi - steel tire开工率 was 50.87%. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 111.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 34 yuan to 4735 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4640 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 95. The 1 - 5 spread was - 318. The cost side remained stable, the overall开工率 was 82.6%, and the downstream开工率 was 47.8%. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term due to strong supply, weak demand, and poor export expectations [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene remained unchanged at 5770 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 6750 yuan/ton, and the active - contract closing price fell 75 yuan/ton to 6743 yuan/ton. The basis was 7 yuan/ton, and the BZN spread was 125.75 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 73.61%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.44 million tons to 20.19 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 was 38.54% [18]. - **Strategy**: The styrene price may stop falling as the BZN spread has room for upward repair and the seasonal peak season is approaching [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 40 yuan/ton to 7037 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton to 7100 yuan/ton. The basis was 63 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 83.6%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.56 million tons to 38.27 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.43 million tons to 4.67 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 45% [21]. - **Strategy**: The price may fluctuate upward as cost support exists and the seasonal peak season is approaching [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 23 yuan/ton to 6722 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 6780 yuan/ton. The basis was 58 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 77.29%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.03 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 6.65 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 52% [24]. - **Strategy**: There is no prominent short - term contradiction due to high supply pressure, seasonal demand rebound, and high inventory pressure [25]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - **PX** - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 82 yuan to 6504 yuan. The PX CFR fell 11 dollars to 798 dollars. The PX load in China was 87.4%, and in Asia was 79.9%. Some domestic and overseas installations restarted, and one Japanese installation was under maintenance. The PTA load was 74.4%. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 37.9 million tons [27]. - **Strategy**: The PX inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [28]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 50 yuan to 4534 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4490 yuan. The PTA load was 74.4%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) on September 26 was 210.7 million tons [28]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the supply - side overhaul volume is high and the processing fee space is limited [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 58 yuan to 4100 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 18 yuan to 4206 yuan. The supply - side load was 75.1%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The port inventory increased by 9.8 million tons to 50.7 million tons [30]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to high supply, increasing imports, and expected inventory accumulation [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polyolefin industry is weak [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of polypropylene and polyethylene is weak. For polypropylene, the supply is increasing, the demand recovery is less than expected, and factors such as trade - war and high supply suppress the market price. For polyethylene, the market is affected by tariff policies, with high inventory pressure and limited cost support from crude oil [5][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Overview Polypropylene - Supply: During 20251003 - 1009, China's polypropylene production was 796,200 tons, an increase of 11,700 tons or 1.49% from the previous period. The loss of production enterprises decreased, and the supply pressure increased after the holiday [5] - Demand: The average operating rate of downstream industries rose 0.05 percentage points to 51.76%. Although most enterprises resumed production after the holiday, the recovery was restricted by multiple factors. The demand in the automobile and home - appliance sectors is strong, and there is a possibility of further increase in the operating rate with the upcoming Double Eleven [5] - Viewpoint: Trade - war and high supply suppress the price. The market will continue to be weak, but the rhythm of the trade - war should be noted [5] - Valuation: The basis and month - spread are weak, and the short - term valuation is moderately weak. Low profits of MTO and PDH devices limit the downward space [5] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be weak with oscillations, with an upper pressure of 7000 - 7050 and a lower support of 6500 - 6550. In the short - term, buy 05 and sell 01 for inter - period trading. No recommendation for inter - variety trading [5] Polyethylene - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 83.95%, an increase of 1.86% from the previous period. There were no new maintenance devices this week, and some previous devices restarted [7] - Demand: The overall operating rate of agricultural films increased by 2.75%, and orders for shed films increased significantly. The operating rate of PE packaging films increased by 0.52%, while that of PE pipes decreased by 0.50%, and that of PE hollow increased by 0.15%. The market was affected by tariff policies, and downstream orders were mainly for replenishing stocks [7] - Viewpoint: Affected by tariff policies and inventory pressure, and with limited cost support from crude oil, the short - term trend of PE may be weak [7] - Valuation: The basis oscillates, the month - spread weakens, and the L - LL spread oscillates. The valuation is neutral [7] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be weakly oscillating, with an upper pressure of 7250 and lower supports of 6950 and 6850 for the 01 contract. No recommendation for inter - period and inter - variety trading [7] 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand - Price Spread: The price spreads of powder - granular materials and copolymer - drawn materials are shrinking, which is not conducive to market stabilization [16] - Capacity Utilization: The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene in this period was 77.75%, a 1.14% increase from the previous period. Sinopec's average capacity utilization rate was 79.69%, a 0.17% decrease [22] - Maintenance: In October, the maintenance of polypropylene is relatively low, which suppresses the rebound space. Many devices have long - term or undetermined maintenance, and some large - scale devices are scheduled for maintenance in the future [23] - New Capacity: In 2025, the potential new capacity of polypropylene is 5.055 million tons, with a capacity increase of 11.3%. The potential production pressure is still large [25] - Inventory: Both production and trader inventories of polypropylene increased month - on - month [27] - Cost: The oil price has dropped, and the oil - based production cost of polypropylene has decreased [32] - Profit: The profits of oil - based and PDH - based polypropylene production have increased [38] - Downstream Industry: For BOPP, the operating rate is stable, the order days are decreasing, the finished product inventory is increasing, and the profit is slightly recovering but still at a low level. For tape mother rolls, the operating rate is flat, and the order days are decreasing. For plastic weaving, the operating rate and order days are increasing. For non - woven fabrics, the operating rate is increasing, and the finished product inventory is moderately high. For CPP, the operating rate and order days are decreasing [40][47][49][54][57] 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - Price Spread: The L - LL and HD - LL spreads of polyethylene are oscillating [62] - Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 83.95%, an increase of 1.86% from the previous period. This week's polyethylene production was 664,200 tons, a 3.04% increase from last week [68] - Maintenance: The maintenance loss in October is less than that in September, and many devices are in long - term or undetermined maintenance states [69] - New Capacity: In 2025, the potential new capacity of polyethylene is 6.13 million tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17%. Some devices have been put into operation, and others are scheduled for commissioning in 2025 [70] - Inventory: The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises and social inventory have both increased month - on - month. The sample inventory of production enterprises was 488,600 tons, a 27.67% increase from the previous period [72][75] - Cost: The oil price has dropped, and the oil - based production cost of polyethylene has decreased [76] - Profit: The profit of oil - based polyethylene production devices has increased [83] - Downstream Industry: For agricultural films, the operating rate has increased month - on - month, and the order days have decreased. For packaging films, the operating rate and order days have both increased. For pipes and hollow products, the operating rates have decreased month - on - month [85][86][87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, the following ratings are given: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [5] - Rubber: Oscillating [7] - Methanol: Oscillating [8] - Polyolefins: Oscillating weakly [8] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical tensions have eased with the Israel - Hamas cease - fire agreement, leading to a decline in the geopolitical premium of crude oil and downward pressure on oil prices. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories. Under the triple tests of supply increase expectations, geopolitical factor easing, and demand entering the off - season, oil prices are expected to continue their weakening trend [1]. - **Fuel oil**: Although the East - West arbitrage window for low - sulfur fuel oil is mostly closed, the inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable, but the supply may increase in the future. The high - sulfur fundamentals may be slightly stronger than the low - sulfur [3]. - **Asphalt**: During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly. The continuous rainfall in the southern regions hinders downstream construction, while the northern regions still have some catch - up demand. The recent significant increase in asphalt production may put pressure on prices after the peak season [3]. - **Polyester**: In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may continue to increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken in the second half of October. Under the situation of supply increase and demand weakening, the fundamentals of TA and ethylene glycol are weak, and their prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Rubber**: Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", the rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease. The US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress global rubber demand. After the holiday, rubber prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to new rubber warehouse receipts and crude oil price fluctuations [7]. - **Methanol**: The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has significantly increased, but MTO profit compression may affect refinery maintenance plans. In the short term, methanol prices are suppressed by high inventories and tend to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefins**: Poor profit performance may lead to a high level of maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will gradually decline, affecting the procurement of raw materials. Supply pressure remains high, demand has peaked and declined, and polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **PVC**: In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue. As the peak season in October ends, downstream operations are expected to decline, and exports may weaken due to India's anti - dumping duties. High inventory pressure will restrict price increases, and market fluctuations may increase [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Thursday, the price of WTI November contract closed at $61.51 per barrel, down $1.04 or 1.66%. Brent December contract closed at $65.22 per barrel, down $1.03 or 1.55%. SC2511 closed at 464.2 yuan per barrel, down 4.5 yuan or 0.96%. Israel's approval of the Gaza cease - fire agreement led to a decline in the geopolitical premium. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories [1]. - **Fuel oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2601) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.25% at 2,834 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract (LU2511) closed down 1.23% at 3,360 yuan per ton. The inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2511) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.52% at 3,375 yuan per ton. During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly, and the southern rainfall affected downstream construction [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,626 yuan per ton, up 1.54%. EG2601 closed at 4,234 yuan per ton, up 0.52%. In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai - traded rubber (RU2601) rose 95 yuan per ton to 15,620 yuan per ton. Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease, and the US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress demand [7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,213 yuan per ton. The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has increased [8]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the mainstream price of East - China drawn polypropylene was 6,700 - 6,800 yuan per ton. Poor profit performance may lead to high - level maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will decline [8]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, the price of PVC in the East - China market decreased. In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue, and downstream operations are expected to decline as the peak season ends [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy and chemical products on October 10, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, styrene, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and soda ash [10]. 3.3 Market News - Israel and Hamas have reached a long - sought cease - fire and personnel release agreement, which weakens the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil and triggers investors to sell [12]. - In the absence of strong new signals in supply and demand, crude oil prices have also declined with the broader market. The US government shutdown and the strengthening of the US dollar have reduced the attractiveness of dollar - denominated commodities. Oil prices are likely to remain range - bound and slightly downward [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, and p - xylene [14][17][20][21][23][25][27][28]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [31][35][36][39][42][44]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads The report displays the spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [46][48][51][54][58][60]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads The report presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, including crude oil internal and external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [62][65][67][68]. 3.4.5 Production Profits The report shows the production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE from 2021 to 2025 [70][73]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy and chemicals, with over a decade of experience in futures and derivatives market research, has won multiple industry awards [77]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain and has won many industry awards [78]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with strong data analysis and logical thinking abilities, and has won several industry awards [79]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in integrating financial theory and industrial operations [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Futures prices of plastics and PP decreased, with plastics L2601 closing at 7077 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan/ton (-1.1%), and PP2601 at 6745 yuan/ton, down 128 yuan (-1.86%). This weakened the spot trading atmosphere, causing some prices to loosen. The post - holiday social inventory increased, and the demand in October had some resilience but limited new orders. The cost support from crude oil was weak, putting pressure on polyolefins [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Plastics L2601 opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed lower. PP2601 also dropped. The futures' weak performance affected the spot market, with traders offering discounts. The post - holiday inventory increase and limited new orders led to high de - stocking pressure. Crude oil's supply expectation adjustment reduced cost support for polyolefins [3][4]. 3.2 Industry News - On October 9, 2025, the major producers' inventory was 860,000 tons, a 270,000 - ton increase (45.76%) from before the holiday, compared to 930,000 tons in the same post - holiday period last year. PE market prices were weak, while the mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market rose 90 yuan/ton. PP market prices declined [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple figures were presented, including L and PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and its year - on - year change rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][13][15].

Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views - **Polyolefins**: PE's current maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up is gradually recovering. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches has decreased this week. Future attention should be paid to the supply rhythm and import offers. The pre - holiday CP settlement price has decreased, and the profit of PDH units has recovered. Attention should be paid to the return of PP units. In terms of demand, there are no bright spots, and there is significant inventory pressure after the holiday. Coupled with new capacity investment, the pressure of inventory accumulation in 01 is large, which limits the upside space [2]. - **Methanol**: The current market's core trading logic revolves around "high inventory + high imports". The port arrival volume remains consistently high, the inventory accumulation is significant, and the trading atmosphere has weakened, resulting in a downward price trend. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although the number of unplanned maintenance units has increased recently, some units are expected to resume production in early October. The inventory pattern in the inland area is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season of downstream industries. In terms of valuation, the overall is in a neutral state. The current futures market is in a game situation, and future focus should be on the emergence of the inventory inflection point [5]. - **Polyester Industry Chain** - **PX**: The domestic PX load remains at a high level. The PTA processing fee is continuously low, new PTA device production is delayed, and multiple PTA units have maintenance plans. The PX supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and there is an expectation of PXN compression. In the short term, PX has weak self - driving force, and the oil price support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **PTA**: The PTA supply is expected to shrink. The short - term downstream start - up remains at a relatively high level, and the PTA basis has been repaired, but the rebound space is limited under the weak expectation. In the short term, PTA has limited self - driving force, and the oil price support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the National Day holiday, the port inventory has increased significantly. The domestic supply remains at a high level, and the supply - demand is gradually weakening. Therefore, the price of ethylene glycol is under pressure [8]. - **Short Fibers**: The short - fiber supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply remains at a high level, and the inventory pressure after the holiday is not significant. It is expected that the short - term support for short fibers is stronger than that of raw materials, but the driving force is limited, and the price will mainly follow the raw materials [8]. - **Bottle Chips**: In October, there is no news of further production cuts for bottle chips. The demand in the fourth quarter is in the traditional off - season. The demand side has limited support for bottle chips. It is expected that bottle chips will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period, and the price will mainly follow the cost side [8]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand growth has great uncertainty, with limited support. The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be loose, and the price driving force is weak. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and the demand side support may be limited. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure after the holiday [9]. - **PVC - Caustic Soda** - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term demand for caustic soda lacks support and tends to be weak, and it can be treated bearishly in the short term. However, there is demand support in the medium and long term, and attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm [10]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction of PVC is difficult to resolve. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, and the demand in the peak season is not strong. The cost side provides bottom support. It is expected that the downside space of PVC is limited during the peak season, and attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [10]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased, with declines of - 1.06%, - 0.86%, - 1.56%, and - 1.06% respectively. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased, with increases of 20.90% and 121.43% respectively. The spot prices of East China PP fiber and North China LLDPE film decreased, with declines of - 1.04% and - 0.99% respectively [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The PE device start - up rate increased by 1.85% to 81.8%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 2.82% to 44.1%. The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 16.50% to 38.3 (in appropriate units), and the social inventory decreased by 1.93% to 52.5 million tons. The PP device start - up rate increased by 1.4% to 76.6%, the powder start - up rate increased by 4.3% to 35.5%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 18.7% to 61.5. The PP enterprise inventory decreased by 5.50% to 52.0, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.58% to 18.7 million tons [2]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2605 decreased, with declines of - 1.63% and - 0.68% respectively. The MA15 spread increased by 64.71%, and the Taicang basis increased by 9.24%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang decreased, with declines of - 0.36%, - 2.22%, and - 1.23% respectively [5]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.08% to 33.94%, the port inventory increased by 3.42% to 154.3 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 3.89% to 188.3%. The start - up rates of Shanghai - domestic enterprises and Shanghai - overseas enterprises increased by 2.22% and 0.63% respectively. The northwest enterprise sales - production ratio increased by 9.60%, the downstream - external MTO device start - up rate increased by 4.63%, the downstream - formaldehyde start - up rate decreased by 7.22%, the downstream - acetic acid start - up rate decreased by 0.97%, and the downstream - MTBE start - up rate decreased by 0.59% [5]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price Changes**: From October 8th to 9th, the prices of Brent crude oil (December) and WTI crude oil (November) decreased, with declines of - 1.6% and - 1.7% respectively. The price of CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged, and the price of CFR China MX increased by 0.4%. The prices of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene and CFR China PX remained unchanged [8]. - **Downstream Product Price and Cash - flow Changes**: The prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, polyester chips, and polyester bottle chips decreased, with declines of - 0.8%, - 0.5%, - 0.6%, and - 0.8% respectively. The cash - flows of POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased, with declines of - 7.9% and - 5.3% respectively. The cash - flow of DTY150/48 increased by 275.0%, and the polyester chip cash - flow increased by 20.3%. The bottle chip processing fee increased by 0.2%, and the bottle chip basis decreased by 70.0% [8]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The MEG port inventory increased by 24.0% to 50.7 million tons, and the arrival expectation decreased by 65.8% to 8.0 million tons. The Asian PX start - up rate decreased by 0.3% to 78.0%, the Chinese PX start - up rate increased by 0.5% to 86.7%, the PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 76.8%, the MEG comprehensive start - up rate decreased by 2.4% to 73.1%, the coal - based MEG start - up rate decreased by 6.3% to 74.4%, the direct - spinning filament start - up rate decreased by 0.4% to 93.5%, the polyester bottle chip start - up rate decreased by 5.8% to 67.8%, the pure - polyester yarn start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 64.2%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate increased by 3.8% to 81%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom start - up rate increased by 6.1% to 70%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang printing start - up rate increased by 5.6% to 76% [8]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the prices of Brent crude oil (November), WTI crude oil (October), CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene decreased, with declines of - 2.7%, - 1.4%, - 1.3%, and - 0.6% respectively. The price of CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7%, the pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 2.2%, and the ethylene - naphtha spread increased by 1.3% [9]. - **Styrene - related Price and Cash - flow Changes**: The price of styrene in East China remained unchanged. The prices of EB2510 and EB2511 decreased, with declines of - 0.2% and - 0.2% respectively. The EB basis (10) increased by 12.5%, the EB10 - EB11 spread increased by 5.0%, the non - integrated EB cash - flow increased by 11.3%, and the integrated EB cash - flow increased by 13.6%. The EB - BZ spot spread increased by 1.9%, and the EB10 - BZ03 spread increased by 2.7% [9]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.2% to 9.10 million tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 2.2% to 20.19 million tons. The Asian pure benzene start - up rate remained unchanged at 79.0%, the domestic pure benzene start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 79.3%, the domestic hydro - benzene start - up rate increased by 6.8% to 64.0%, the benzene production start - up rate increased by 9.9% to 78.0%, the caprolactam start - up rate increased by 5.7% to 93.8%, the benzene - related start - up rate increased by 4.0% to 74.9%, the styrene start - up rate decreased by 0.2% to 73.2%, the downstream PS start - up rate decreased by 3.4% to 59.1%, the downstream EPS start - up rate decreased by 10.5% to 55.3%, and the downstream ABS start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 70.0% [9]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and East China ethylene - based PVC decreased, with declines of - 1.3% and - 1.0% respectively. The prices of SHS209 and SH2601 decreased, with declines of - 1.8% and - 3.2% respectively. The SH basis increased by - 33.1%, and the SH2509 - 2601 spread increased by 28.9%. The prices of V2509 and V2601 decreased, with declines of - 1.0% and - 1.4% respectively. The V basis decreased by - 0.8%, and the V2509 - V2601 spread increased by 3.3% [10]. - **Export and Profit**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China ports remained unchanged, and the export profit decreased by 26.3%. The CFR prices of PVC in Southeast Asia and India remained unchanged, the FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC in Tianjin Port increased by 0.8%, and the export profit increased by 323.8% [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry start - up rate increased by 1.6% to 86.8%, the Shandong sample start - up rate increased by 0.6% to 85.6%, the PVC total start - up rate increased by 0.9% to 76.1%, the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 11.2% to - 896.0 yuan/ton, and the northwest integrated profit decreased by 68.9% to 43.3 yuan/ton. The alumina industry start - up rate remained unchanged at 83.7%, the viscose staple fiber industry start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 89.8%, the printing and dyeing industry start - up rate increased by 0.6% to 66.2%. The Longzhong sample profile start - up rate increased by 3.3% to 40.4, the Longzhong sample profile start - up rate decreased by 1.3% to 38.0, and the Longzhong sample PVC pre - sales volume increased by 0.5% to 75.9 million tons [10]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories increased by 14.2% to 19.7 million tons, the liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong increased by 9.9% to 11.1 million tons, the PVC upstream factory inventory increased by 3.9% to 31.8 million tons, and the PVC total social inventory remained unchanged at 53.5 million tons [10].