2025 年 11月 17 日 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0022533 shiyining@gtht.com 基本面跟踪 表 1: 基本面数据(元/吨) | 市场 | 区域 | 纸种 | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/13 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天阳 | 4475 | 64475 | 20 0 | | | | 70g晨鸣云镜 | 4650 | 4650 | 0 | | | 山东市场 | 70g华夏太阳 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 70g本白牡丹 | 4450 | 4450 | 0 | | | | 70g天阳 | 4450 | 4450 | 9 | | | 广东市场 | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 4600 | 4600 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4700 | 4700 | O | | | | 含税收入 | 4731 | 4731 | 0 | | | 税前必 | 含税成本 | 5132 | 5120 | 12 | | | | 税前毛利 | -401 | -389 | -12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The pulp market is expected to undergo high - level consolidation in the short term. The futures market is dominated by financial attributes, while the spot market remains firm due to cost support and limited available supply. It is recommended to monitor the inventory reduction pace and the change in the operating rate of downstream paper mills [98]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of November 13, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port increased by 6.3 tons week - on - week, a 12.5% rise; Qingdao Port's inventory rose by 5.0 tons, a 3.7% increase; and Gaolan Port's inventory decreased by 1.5 tons, a 26.8% decline. The total inventory of major Chinese pulp ports increased by 10.2 tons, a 5.1% rise [5][6]. - From January to September 2025, Finns Group reported a comparable operating loss of 27 million euros [6]. - Liaoning Yusen's 185,000 - ton second - phase project of household paper is expected to be put into production by the end of September next year [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On November 14, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 70 yuan/ton, down 33.96% week - on - week and 80.77% year - on - year; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 80 yuan/ton, up 72.79% week - on - week and 6.98% year - on - year; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 150 yuan/ton, down 62.50% week - on - week and 66.67% year - on - year [14]. - On November 14, 2025, the 01 - 03 month - spread was 32 yuan/ton, up 300.00% week - on - week; the 03 - 05 month - spread was - 14 yuan/ton, down 16.67% week - on - week [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - On November 14, 2025, the price difference between silver star and goldfish pulp was 1,150 yuan/ton, down 8.00% week - on - week and 34.29% year - on - year; the price difference between Russian needle and goldfish pulp was 1,000 yuan/ton, up 17.65% week - on - week and down 23.08% year - on - year [25]. - The import profit of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp continued to recover. In November, the import price of wood pulp was unclear, and paper mills were cautious [29]. - The price of imported coniferous pulp spot rose with the market, but paper mills were cautious in signing orders, and market transactions were mainly small orders [33]. - The price of imported broad - leaf pulp rose significantly, with an expected increase in import cost and a bullish market sentiment [36]. - The prices of Venus and Kunhe pulp on November 14, 2025, were 5,100 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [41]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of paper enterprises in East China was generally stable this week, with individual increases [43]. - Domestic broad - leaf pulp prices rose this period, while the operating rate and output decreased; the operating rate and output of chemimechanical pulp increased [47]. - In September, the pulp port inventory in Europe decreased month - on - month, while the inventory days of coniferous pulp increased [51][52]. - In August, the shipment volume of W20 coniferous pulp was low, and the inventory was high; the shipment volume of broad - leaf pulp remained high, but the inventory days were low [56]. - In August, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, and Finland to China decreased month - on - month; in September, Finland's export volume to China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; in October, Chile's export volume to China increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [62]. - In September, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; in October, Brazil's export volume decreased slightly month - on - month [63]. - In September, China's pulp import volume increased overall, with coniferous pulp up 12.52% month - on - month, broad - leaf pulp up 7.81% month - on - month, and chemimechanical pulp up 31.43% month - on - month [67]. 3.3.3 Demand - The average price of offset paper was basically stable, with poor profitability. Downstream consumption was scattered, but some users stocked up due to cost support [71]. - The average price of coated paper was stable, with a slight decrease in supply. The supply - demand relationship did not improve significantly [75]. - The price of white cardboard continued to rise. Although the production and sales situation changed little, the shipment increased in some local markets [79]. - The price of household paper was stable, with weak terminal demand and limited support from pulp prices [83]. - In October, the retail sales of cultural office supplies, cosmetics, and daily necessities increased significantly year - on - year [87]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of November 14, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 220,400 tons, down 1.66% week - on - week and 39.26% year - on - year [90]. - The port inventory was at a medium level this year, showing a slight accumulation trend. Qingdao Port's inventory shifted to an accumulation trend, and Changshu Port's inventory showed a narrow - range accumulation trend [95].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of pulp futures have not improved. It is recommended to view it as range - bound and sell on rallies [7]. - The fundamentals of double - offset paper futures have not improved. It is recommended to view it as range - bound and sell on rallies [18]. 3. Summary by Variety Pulp - **Demand**: Demand is flat, with only rigid demand replenishment. Terminal orders in the downstream base paper market are limited, and paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. Only sporadic publishing tenders in the cultural paper field have slightly boosted market confidence, but demand has not improved substantially. The overall operating rate of downstream finished paper has declined [5]. - **Supply**: Supply is relatively abundant. Although the domestic pulp import volume decreased in October, port inventories are still ample. Overseas prices have fluctuated, but there is no shortage of supply [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 211.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.2 million tons or 5.1%. The inventory shifted from narrow - range destocking to high - level accumulation [5]. - **Profit**: Paper mill profits continue to decline. Although the pulp futures market rebounded, weak downstream demand has led to a lack of support for price increases in the finished paper market, and the industry profit is contracting [6]. Double - offset Paper - **Demand**: Demand remains weak. This week, the domestic sales volume of double - offset paper was 169.6 thousand tons. Only sporadic orders were released in the publishing field, and social printing demand was sluggish. The market transaction was light, and only some downstream enterprises replenished inventory moderately [17]. - **Supply**: Supply increased slightly. This week, the operating rate of double - offset paper was 51.40%, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 percentage points, but the growth rate narrowed. The industry output reached 175.6 thousand tons, and imports remained at a low level [17]. - **Inventory**: Inventory decreased from an increase but the pressure still exists. This week, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 0.66% compared with last week. Although paper mill inventories decreased slightly, the overall inventory pressure has not been substantially alleviated [17]. - **Profit**: The industry is still in a loss state. Although some paper mills' planned price increases may offset cost pressure slightly, the industry has been in a loss situation since October, and rising costs and weak demand have failed to reverse the loss pattern [17]. Waste Paper - **Demand**: Demand is strong and rising. The e - commerce festival and year - end promotions have led to concentrated procurement by downstream cardboard and carton factories. The seasonal recovery of cultural paper has also increased the demand for waste paper, driving up the procurement volume of waste cartons. The operating rate of paper mills exceeded 85%, and leading paper mills have raised purchase prices [26]. - **Supply**: Supply is continuously tight. The recycling volume of waste cartons has decreased in many domestic areas, and import restrictions and price increases of imported recycled pulp have increased the demand for domestic waste cartons. Some paper mills' maintenance has further exacerbated the supply gap [26]. - **Inventory**: Overall, there is a narrow - range destocking trend. As of November 6, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 200.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.3 million tons or 2.6%. Downstream cardboard factories' raw material inventories are mostly at medium - to - high levels, while paper mills' raw material inventories are generally low [26]. - **Profit**: Industry profits are clearly divided. The cost pressure of corrugated paper and boxboard paper has increased, and gross profit has shrunk. However, the demand for yarn tube paper is good, and the gross profit of some high - end paper types has remained at a good level [27]. Boxboard Paper (Packaging Paper) - **Demand**: Demand shows resilience. The e - commerce replenishment demand after the "Double 11" promotion and the subsequent Chinese New Year goods stocking demand support the demand for boxboard paper. Downstream cardboard factories have a certain demand for boxboard paper, driving some paper mills to raise prices [36]. - **Supply**: Supply is structurally tightened. Leading paper mills such as Nine Dragons and Shanying have raised prices, but due to the shortage of raw material waste paper, some medium - and large - sized paper mills in East and South China have announced machine shutdowns for maintenance in mid - November, resulting in a decrease in overall market supply [36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory turnover is 10.5 days, which is relatively controllable. However, the high - level raw material inventories of downstream cardboard factories have restricted their replenishment, and the low raw material inventories of paper mills have affected the production and stocking rhythm of boxboard paper [36]. - **Profit**: The immediate profit is 270 yuan, and profitability has some support. The price increase of boxboard paper and the rising cost of raw material waste yellow board paper have affected the profit margin, which is in a moderate recovery state [36].

Group 1 - Company has been steadily expanding for thirty years, establishing a more complete industrial chain, and is currently the world's largest paper production group and a leader in the integrated pulp and paper industry [1] - The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, China, with a current design capacity of over 23 million tons of paper [1] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% in revenue over the past ten years, with projected revenue of 63.24 billion in FY2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [2] Group 2 - The demand for corrugated box paper is expected to remain stable, with consumption projected at 35.82 million tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 8.3% over the past five years [3] - The industry has returned to a capacity expansion cycle since 2022, with supply-demand imbalances leading to short-term price pressures, but the situation is expected to improve as smaller capacities exit the market [3] - The company has been expanding its production capacity, with a design capacity nearing 29 million tons by June 30, 2025, and a CAGR of 9% in new paper production capacity from FY2022 to FY2025 [4] Group 3 - The company is focusing on the integrated development of pulp and paper, with significant results in its industrial chain layout, including plans for 700,000 tons of recycled pulp capacity and over 2 million tons of wood pulp capacity by the end of FY2025 [4] - The company is diversifying its product structure by expanding high-end products such as high-grade kraft paper and white cardboard, leading to a noticeable decrease in per-ton paper costs [4] - The company aims to achieve a self-sufficiency rate of 1.02 million tons of raw materials by 2027, which will help minimize waste paper procurement costs and ensure stable production quality [4]

Core Points - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) took place in Shanghai from November 5 to 10, emphasizing green and low-carbon initiatives [1] - Gold East Paper, a subsidiary of the Nine Dragons Paper Holdings, showcased its zero-carbon office paper and other eco-friendly products at the expo [2][3] - The company plans to launch a 50 MW rooftop distributed photovoltaic project in 2024, aiming to generate over 50 million kWh of solar power annually, reducing CO2 emissions by approximately 40,000 tons [3] - Evonik Industries introduced 11 new products in the fine chemical sector, with four being global debuts, highlighting international collaboration and innovation [4] - COSCO Shipping's logistics services facilitated the transportation of South American products to Shanghai, enhancing global supply chain efficiency [5] - The Zhenjiang Economic Development Zone aims to attract foreign investment, with a reported 39% share of the city's foreign capital in 2024, and has cumulatively utilized over $10 billion in foreign investment [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of Hong Kong paper stocks, with notable increases in share prices for several companies [1] Group 2 - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings saw its stock price rise by over 10% [1] - Chenming Paper Holdings also experienced a stock price increase of over 10% [1] - Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing's stock rose by more than 4% [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong paper industry stocks have surged, with Chenming Paper rising over 6%, Nine Dragons Paper up over 5%, and Lee & Man Paper increasing nearly 3% [1] - Since November, the domestic paper industry has experienced a price increase trend, particularly in the packaging paper sector, characterized by a "leading by the head and following by the end" pattern [1] - Recently, Shanying Paper has initiated price adjustments across multiple bases, with products like Sequoia paper and corrugated paper increasing by 30-100 RMB per ton, and core categories in Guangdong and Zhejiang seeing a rise of 50 RMB per ton [1] Group 2 - Nine Dragons Paper and other companies have followed suit with price increases in kraft paper and boxboard paper [1] - Downstream paperboard factories in regions like Zhejiang and Hunan have quickly responded, with single-instance price increases ranging from 3% to 10%, creating a full-chain price adjustment from raw paper to end packaging [1] - The recent demand for packaging due to "Double Eleven" has supported the price increase of packaging paper, while the supply side shows structural optimization [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, profit, price, and other aspects of offset printing paper. It shows that the production of offset printing paper is expected to increase slightly next week, with stable demand and inventory likely to accumulate. The cost of offset printing paper has risen due to raw material price increases, and production profit is expected to decline. If the price increase is successfully implemented, it may offset the cost increase. In the short - term, the fundamentals show no significant changes. If the price increase is implemented, appropriate long positions can be established at low prices, but risk control should be noted. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Offset Printing Paper Overview - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Domestic production in the week of 2025/11/7 was 20.80 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.20 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 53.40%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%. The monthly import volume was 1.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79 million tons. The weekly apparent demand was 19.60 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.00 million tons. The monthly export volume was 5.60 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 million tons. Domestic demand was 84.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.84 million tons. Enterprise inventory, social inventory, and total spot inventory all increased, with the total inventory reaching 189.50 million tons. It is expected that the production of the double - offset paper industry will continue to increase, about 21.0 million tons next week, and the demand will remain stable, with inventory likely to accumulate [6]. - **Price**: The ex - factory delivery prices of major brands remained unchanged compared to the previous period, but were lower than the same period last year. It is reported that due to the increase in raw material prices, the intended price increase of double - offset paper is 100 yuan/ton, waiting for implementation. The market self - pick - up prices also remained unchanged compared to the previous period but were lower than the same period last year. The futures prices of OP2601 and OP2603 showed an upward trend compared to the previous period, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate or fluctuate strongly [8]. - **Spread and Basis**: The spread between ex - factory and self - pick - up prices remained stable, and the futures spread between 1 - 3 contracts was expected to remain stable. The basis of some brands was expected to weaken. Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching and auxiliary textbook tenders, and March is a traditional peak season [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The raw material costs of major pulp types decreased compared to the same period last year but remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The total production cost decreased compared to the same period last year but remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The production profit decreased compared to the same period last year and is expected to decline mainly due to the increase in raw material prices and the difficulty in raising the price of finished products. If the price increase is successful, it may cover the cost increase [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the industrial chain, the spot price is stable, and transactions are based on rigid demand. In the short - term, the fundamentals show no significant changes. If the price increase is implemented, appropriate long positions can be established at low prices, but risk control should be noted [14]. Part 2: Offset Printing Paper Balance Sheet The balance sheet shows the monthly supply, demand, inventory, and other data of double - offset paper from 2024 to 2025. In 2025, the cumulative import volume, production, total supply, domestic demand, total demand, etc. showed different trends compared to 2024. For example, in January 2025, the cumulative import volume decreased by 18.05% year - on - year, and the production decreased by 10.87% year - on - year [16]. Part 3: Offset Printing Paper Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - Production Situation**: In 2025, a total of 140 million tons of cultural paper production capacity has been put into operation, and 225 million tons are yet to be put into operation, mostly in the third quarter. In 2026, the planned production capacity to be put into operation is 120 - 140 million tons. Major companies such as Nine Dragons Paper, Chenming Paper, and Sun Paper have new production capacity plans or capacity resumption plans [18]. Part 4: Offset Printing Paper Cost - Profit - **Raw Material Cost**: The raw material costs of major pulp types such as Ural Needle, Moon, and Goldfish decreased compared to the same period last year but remained unchanged compared to the previous period [12]. - **Profit**: The production profit decreased compared to the same period last year and is expected to decline mainly due to the increase in raw material prices and the difficulty in raising the price of finished products. If the price increase is successful, it may cover the cost increase [12]. Part 5: Offset Printing Paper Price and Spread Analysis - **Spot Quotation**: The ex - factory delivery prices and market self - pick - up prices of major brands remained unchanged compared to the previous period but were lower than the same period last year. It is reported that due to the increase in raw material prices, the intended price increase of double - offset paper is 100 yuan/ton, waiting for implementation [8]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis of some brands is expected to weaken [10]. - **OP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - Month Spread**: Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching and auxiliary textbook tenders, and March is a traditional peak season. The futures spread between 1 - 3 contracts is expected to remain stable [10].

侨见海南自贸港："看好封关机遇，持续加大投资" 中新网海南洋浦11月10日电 题：侨见海南自贸港："看好封关机遇，持续加大投资" 中新网记者 尹海明 王子谦 "海南自贸港封关运作在即，其不断释放的政策红利与日益优化的营商环境，为侨资企业提供了深耕发 展的沃土。"海南金海浆纸业有限公司(简称"金海浆纸")总经理孟祥岩近日接受中新网记者采访时说，企 业对封关后的海南自贸港充满信心，将持续加大投资。 2024年5月，金海浆纸现代化的工业厂房。海南金海浆纸业有限公司 供图 内造纸行业竞争加剧的挑战，金海浆纸将利用海南的优势地位，一方面加快进行技术变革和延长产业 链，向更多高附加值终端产品转型进军；另一方面，积极走出去拓展国际市场。 记者在金海浆纸看到，一个规划年生产16万吨特种纸的厂房正在加快建设，这是企业持续加码投资海南 和不断延长产业链的生动写照。据了解，该项目计划总投资额达10.19亿元，将新建2条先进的特种纸生 产线，产品定位为干果包装纸、单光白牛卡纸、烘焙(硅油)原纸等高附加值品类，以满足不同工业及消 费领域的市场需求。 2025年5月，金海浆纸年产16万吨特种纸项目开工。海南金海浆纸业有限公司 供图 20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the view on offset printing paper is mainly range-bound. The paper mill's price increase letters have generally been implemented with an increase of 50 - 100 yuan/ton, which is generally positive for the futures and spot markets. The supply and demand in the spot market next week will remain basically stable, with the paper mills still having the intention to support prices, but there is no obvious positive support on the demand side, and the industry players are more on the sidelines. It is expected that the double-offset paper market will remain stable overall next week [53]. Summary by Directory Industry News - This Thursday, the inventory days of double-offset paper decreased by 0.66% compared with last Thursday, and the trend changed from rising to falling this week. At the end of last month, some dealers stocked up in advance, and the paper mill's inventory decreased slightly this week, but the overall pressure still exists [5]. - This week, the operating load rate of double-offset paper was 51.40%, a month-on-month increase of 0.16 percentage points, and the increase rate this week narrowed by 2.47 percentage points month-on-month. Most production lines were stable this week, and the overall industry operation changed little [5]. - Due to the continuous rise in wood chip costs, Asia Pulp & Paper officially announced that starting from now, the acceptance price of hardwood pulp will be increased by 150 yuan/ton [5]. Market Trends - The daily average price of 70g high-white double-offset paper on November 7 was 4430 yuan/ton, the same as yesterday and last week, with a month-on-month and year-on-year change of 0 [9]. - In the spot market, the prices of various brands of 70g double-offset paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets on November 7 were the same as those on October 31, with a month-on-month change of 0. The pre-tax and after-tax revenues remained unchanged, while the pre-tax and after-tax costs increased, and the pre-tax and after-tax gross profits decreased. The closing prices of double-offset paper futures OP2601.SHF and OP2603.SHF increased, and the 1 - 3 spread increased by 2. The basis in Shandong and Guangdong markets decreased [10]. Supply and Demand Data - **Industry Capacity**: In 2024, the domestic double-offset paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57% [19]. - **Weekly Output and Operation**: This week, the domestic double-offset paper industry output was 184.1 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 52.5% [25]. - **Enterprise Weekly Sales and Inventory**: This week, the domestic double-offset paper industry sales were 187.1 thousand tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 377.0 thousand tons [30]. - **Imports and Exports**: In August, the domestic double-offset paper import volume was about 11 thousand tons, and the export volume was about 56 thousand tons [37]. - **Inventory Situation**: From the monthly sample inventory data, the social inventory and enterprise inventory continued to accumulate in October [43]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [49]. Market Judgment - **Supply**: Domestically, this week, the domestic double-offset paper industry output was 184.1 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 52.5%. In terms of imports, in September, the domestic double-offset paper import volume was about 11 thousand tons, continuing the previous low import volume [53]. - **Demand**: Domestically, this week, the domestic double-offset paper sales were 187.1 thousand tons. In terms of exports, in September, the domestic double-offset paper export volume was about 56 thousand tons [53]. - **Viewpoint**: From the market perspective, last week, the double-offset paper futures market fluctuated in the range of 4250 - 4300 yuan/ton, with little overall change. Looking at the spot market prices, the paper mill's price increase letters have generally been implemented with an increase of 50 - 100 yuan/ton, which is generally positive for the futures and spot markets. From the supply and demand in the spot market, the operation of the double-offset paper market next week will be basically stable, with individual production lines in Jiangsu Province shut down. As the tendering work continues, the paper mills still have the intention to support prices, but there is no obvious positive support on the demand side, and the industry players are more on the sidelines. It is expected that the double-offset paper market will remain stable overall next week [53]. - **Valuation**: From the basis perspective, the current spot price is at a premium to the futures price. From the perspective of delivery costs, the expected profit of paper mills from selling for delivery cannot cover the opportunity cost in the spot market. From the perspective of production costs, enterprises still have profits in production, but it is close to some relatively high marginal costs, and the overall valuation is still low [53]. - **Strategy**: The price trend is mainly range-bound, and the strategy is mainly range operation [53].