Economic Growth and Achievements - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen 99% of its 102 major projects and over 5,000 specific projects completed ahead of schedule [1] - China's GDP reached 134.91 trillion yuan in 2024, an increase of 31.42 trillion yuan from 2020, with an expected economic increment exceeding 30 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The average GDP growth rates from 2021 to 2024 were 8.6%, 3.1%, 5.4%, and 5.0%, consistently higher than the global average [2] Industrial Development - The modern industrial system has made significant progress, with the primary industry maintaining steady growth and the secondary and tertiary industries contributing the most to GDP [4] - The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries grew by 7.7% and 8.9% respectively in 2024, surpassing the overall industrial growth rates [4] Emerging Industries - The "Three New" economy (new industries, new business formats, and new models) accounted for over 18% of GDP in 2024, with China leading globally in several sectors, including electric vehicles and renewable energy installations [5][6] - The digital economy's core industries contributed approximately 10% to GDP, achieving the targets set in the "14th Five-Year Plan" ahead of schedule [5][6] Trade and Export Performance - In 2024, China's total goods import and export volume reached 43.85 trillion yuan, marking a historical high and maintaining its position as the world's largest goods trader for eight consecutive years [7] - The export of mechanical and electrical products amounted to 15.12 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 59.43% of total exports, with significant growth in high-end equipment exports [7] - Cross-border e-commerce saw explosive growth, with imports and exports reaching 2.63 trillion yuan in 2024, a 55% increase from 2020 [8] Regional Trade Dynamics - ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, with a trade surplus of 190.71 billion USD in 2024, reflecting a shift in trade dynamics and alignment with the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [8]

Core Viewpoint - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing a significant supply-demand gap, with a robust order backlog and expected growth in delivery volumes, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Order Backlog and Delivery Expectations - As of the end of Q1 2025, global shipyards have a total order backlog of 381 million deadweight tons (DWT) / 162 million compensated gross tons (CGT), representing a 2% / 1% increase from the end of 2024 [1][3]. - The expected global ship delivery volume for 2025 is 97.28 million DWT / 44.63 million CGT, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% for both metrics [1][3]. - The order coverage ratio for global shipyards is projected to reach 3.8 years in 2024, marking a historical high, while the proportion of order capacity held is at a relatively low level of 12% [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Profitability - The shipbuilding sector is anticipated to achieve revenues of 210.3 billion yuan in 2024, a 12% year-on-year increase, driven by high industry demand and order fulfillment [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 7.2 billion yuan, representing a substantial 103% increase year-on-year, supported by an improved delivery structure with a higher proportion of high-priced, low-cost orders [2]. - The ship price index remains elevated, with a slight decline of 1% to 187 at the end of Q1 2025, indicating stable pricing across various ship types [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The global new ship market saw a significant decline in new orders in Q1 2025, with a total of 19.8 million DWT / 8.95 million CGT, down 56% / 46% year-on-year, attributed to pre-emptive demand and market uncertainties [4]. - Despite the drop in new orders, the long delivery times (18-24 months) suggest that shipyards will still fulfill existing orders, potentially leading to a recovery in new ship demand starting in 2026 [4]. - The average age of the global fleet reached 13.1 years as of Q1 2025, with an expected increase in aging vessels driving replacement demand over the next decade [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends investing in China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) and paying attention to key players like China Power (600482.SH) and Songfa Co., Ltd. (603268.SH) for their quality shipbuilding assets [7].

Group 1 - The US and UK have reached a tariff agreement covering automobiles, steel, and agricultural products, allowing the UK to reduce tariffs on exports to the US [1] - UK tariffs on car exports to the US will decrease from 27.5% to 10%, and steel and aluminum tariffs will drop from 25% to zero, applicable to 100,000 UK cars, nearly covering last year's total exports [1] - In exchange, the UK will open its markets further for US products, providing $5 billion in export opportunities for the US and planning to purchase $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft [1] Group 2 - South Korea is studying the US-UK trade agreement to find negotiation breakthroughs, particularly focusing on the automotive sector, which accounted for $34.2 billion in exports to the US in 2024, making up 26.8% of total exports [2] - Experts suggest South Korea could adopt a "conditional reciprocity" approach to achieve tariff reductions, leveraging US cooperation needs in shipbuilding and LNG projects [2] - The Korean government is exploring the possibility of a low tariff quota mechanism to secure a 10% preferential tariff for its automobiles [2] Group 3 - South Korea faces significant negotiation challenges, with projected car exports to the US reaching 1.43 million units in 2024, compared to the UK's 100,000 units [3] - The US may demand more concessions from South Korea in agricultural imports, digital trade, and other non-tariff barriers, aiming to maintain a 10% basic tariff while reducing trade deficits [3] - The Korean government aims to balance interests across multiple areas to maximize national benefits in negotiations, with plans to monitor US negotiation strategies and finalize their approach after the new government takes office [3]

美国港口费重锤先砸碎的是自家供应链。中国国际海事和船舶工业的崛起，并非"非市场手 段"产物，而是全球化浪潮下要素优化配置与技术迭代的必然结果 近年来，美国对中国的国际海事行业关注热度超乎想象，专门针对中国的国际海事相关产业链开展了 301调查，各项海事制裁连环叠加。 通过立法、关税、港口并购等一系列手段，尤以对停靠美国港口的中国制造船舶以及中国航运企业征收 的天价港口费为代表，美国试图削弱中国企业竞争力、破坏全球港航布局，并限制中美贸易，重塑其主 导的供应链秩序。 美国在制定相关政策过程中，强化了对中国企业的限制措施，这种做法与全球自由市场规则存在一定偏 离，并引发对公平竞争原则的质疑。 历史早已证明，将经济问题政治化，既无法掩盖美国《琼斯法案》、货载保留等造成的本国船舶和海运 成本黑洞，也不能通过保护主义来振兴其船舶和海运经济，更难以逆转中国船舶制造和海运服务业依托 技术和产业优势形成的创新发展势能。 美国对华海事制裁的终局会走向何方，本文提出三个预言。 针对中国的海事制裁连环叠加 美国频繁对中国实施海事制裁，核心在于遏制中国在全球海运和造船业的主导地位，维护其自身及盟友 利益。美国针对中国施展了多重海事制 ...

贸易谈判的"破冰"时刻：追踪框架和资产展望 20250511 摘要 • 美国贸易政策调整：维持对英 10%关税底线，预计每年为美国带来 60 亿 美元收入，为减税方案提供补充，但可能加剧与其他经济体的贸易摩擦。 • 全球贸易谈判挑战：主要经济体在与美国谈判时面临平衡自身利益与满足 美国要求的难题，如日本在农产品进口方面态度坚决，欧盟则采取反制措 施。 • 美国贸易政策的博弈影响：美国贸易政策不仅影响双边关系，还引发非美 经济体之间的博弈，例如中欧若坚持立场，可能迫使美国妥协，反之中国 先达成协议可能对欧洲施压。 • 美日欧贸易协议前景：若美国与欧盟和日本达成协议，将对中国不利，可 能形成围堵联盟；若未能达成，则美国对外政策受挫，或转向国内政策， 如减税和降息。 • 中国关税谈判策略：中美关税谈判涉及 145 项关税，可分三部分处理，相 对容易取消的是 20%加征和部分 91%报复性加征，而 34%的对等关税涉 及复杂诉求，需高层定调。 Q&A 当前中美贸易谈判的进展情况及其影响如何？ 目前中美在瑞士的贸易谈判进展较为缓慢，市场对此次谈判结果并不抱太大希 望。尽管如此，我们仍需从长计议，关注未来的发展。美国与英 ...

2025年5月8日，中国船舶集团旗下两大千亿级上市公司——中国船舶与中国重工（维权）的换股吸收合 并申请获上交所受理，标志着全球船舶工业史上规模最大的重组案进入实质性阶段。这一交易金额达 1151.5亿元的整合行动，不仅是A股市场十年来最大规模的吸收合并案例，更是中国船舶工业迈向高端 化、国际化的重要里程碑。重组完成后，新"中国船舶"总资产将超4000亿元，成为全球资产规模、营收 规模、订单量均领先的上市造船巨头。本文从战略协同、国际竞争力提升、国有经济布局优化三个维 度，深度剖析此次重组的正向价值。 破局同业竞争，构建全产业链协同生态 中国船舶与中国重工同属中国船舶集团，自2019年"南北船"合并后，两家公司在船舶总装、修船、配套 等业务上高度重叠，形成"兄弟公司"竞争格局。此次合并的核心目标之一，是通过资源整合彻底解决历 史遗留的同业竞争问题，释放全产业链协同效应。 1． 资源整合优化产能布局 合并后，新"中国船舶"将整合原中国船舶旗下江南造船、外高桥造船等船厂，以及中国重工旗下大连造 船、武昌造船等核心资产，形成覆盖长三角、环渤海、珠三角的全国一体化造船产业链。据测算，双方 合并前产能利用率分别为72% ...

日本正在讨论的方案是，作为对美国企业的技术支持和协助建造新船的交换、寻求美方调整加征关 税。除了强调将促进美国国内产业复兴的同时，日本认为，如果能协助美国建造军舰，还可作为安保方 面的贡献加以宣传…… 在与特朗普政府的关税谈判中，日本政府正在为打"造船牌"做准备。日本正在讨论的方案是， 作为对美国企业的技术支持和协助建造新船的交换、寻求美方调整加征关税。这是在强调将 促进美国国内产业复兴的同时，宣传日本在安全保障方面贡献的战略。 美国无法与视为竞争对手的中国展开合作。因此全球市场份额排名第二和第三的同盟国韩国 和日本将成为合作对象。特朗普自2024年再次当选美国总统以来，一直表示期待韩国在造船 业方面提供支持。 日本的造船业占世界市场份额的近2成，在品质和技术方面受到好评。在节能和省人化等特殊 性能方面具有优势。 作为国家战略，日本正在推进液化天然气(LNG)与氢能驱动的应对绿色转型（GX）的新燃料 船的开发、以及设计与建造的数字化。如果能与美国合作建造船只，也有望促进日本的增长 战略。 日本的造船技术也受到美国以外国家的关注。在澳大利亚引进的新型护卫舰的最终评选中， 日本的"最上级（MOGAMI）"护卫舰被 ...

本文来自微信公众号：出行一客 （ID：carcaijing），作者：王静仪，编辑：施智梁，题图来自：AI生 成 第一批装载着被加征145%关税货物的轮船正陆续抵达美国，关税对航运业的冲击已然显现。 早在2024年底，韩国船舶制造巨头韩华海洋就以1亿美元的价格收购了美国费城造船厂（Philly Shipyard），并更名为韩华费城船厂（Hanwha Philly Shipyard），成为首家成功收购美国船厂的韩国企 业。 近期韩华宣布，将启动在美国本土建造LNG（液化天然气）运输船的计划。这意味着，若计划顺利推 进，这会是美国自20世纪70年代以来首次在本土造船厂建造LNG运输船。 深圳大学特聘教授、博士生导师、深圳国际海事研究院院长陈继红对《财经》分析，美国市场的消费品 供应高度依赖集装箱海运，该措施不仅推高进口商品价格、加剧美国通胀危机，还可能冲击年出口额超 7500亿美元的美国海运贸易，损害依赖出口的产业和就业市场。 陈继红指出，国际货币基金组织相关研究表明，航运成本是全球通胀的重要驱动因素，当运价翻倍时， 通胀率会上升0.7个百分点。近五年来，美国的通胀危机愈演愈烈，根据美国劳动统计局（U.S.Bure ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Navy is willing to deepen collaboration with South Korean shipbuilding companies in the areas of warship construction and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Navy Secretary, John Ferlaine, emphasized the importance of South Korean companies contributing to the revitalization of the U.S. shipbuilding industry [1]

作为参考，克拉克森的数据显示，目前一艘156000-158000载重吨苏伊士型原油船新造船价格已经从去 年下半年的9000万美元滑落至8600万美元，也低于去年同期的8850万美元。 包括最近承接的2艘原油运输船在内，HD韩国造船海洋今年以来承接的新船订单已达53艘、64.9亿美元 （约合472亿元人民币），完成了全年接单目标180.5亿美元（约合1320亿元人民币）的约36%，包括1 艘LNG运输船、4艘LNG加注船、1艘超大型液氨运输船（VLAC）、34艘集装箱船、2艘超大型乙烷运 输船（VLEC）、6艘油船、5艘中型LPG/液氨运输船。 根据克拉克森的预测，2025年的原油运输船市场有望走强，预计2025年全球海运原油贸易量将增长 2.7%。大西洋地区出口至亚洲原油贸易持续增长，美国、巴西以及圭亚那等大西洋地区国家远距离总 出口量预计在2025年将比2019年增长78%。除此以外，红海事件导致的船舶绕航预计在2025年依然持 续，进一步推动2025年原油吨海里贸易增长3.1%，原油运输船运力需求增长3.2%。 5月7日，韩国HD现代集团造船业务控股公司HD韩国造船海洋宣布，与一家非洲地区船东签订了2艘 ...