Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively declined, with all falling over 1%. Nickel led the drop with a 6.14% decrease, while copper, aluminum, and lead fell over 2% with copper down 2.76%, aluminum down 2.89%, and lead down 2.01% [1] - Lithium carbonate rose by 2.46%, while industrial silicon fell by 4.53%. Polycrystalline silicon hit a limit down with a 9% drop, priced at 53,610 yuan/ton [1][4] - In the black metal sector, stainless steel fell by 0.98% and iron ore by 0.37%, while other varieties saw slight increases, with rebar and hot-rolled coil both rising under 1% [1] - Precious metals saw declines, with COMEX gold down 0.48% and silver down 2.27%. Domestic gold fell by 0.73% and silver by 5.9% [1][2] Macro Environment - The central bank conducted a 99 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation today, with a bid amount of 99 billion yuan and a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous operations [5] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.04% to 98.70, with recent employment data indicating a drop in job vacancies, raising expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8][9] Oil Market - Both domestic oil prices increased, with U.S. oil rising by 0.46% and Brent oil by 0.48%. The decline in U.S. crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, supporting oil prices [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each black commodity, the following ratings are given: - Steel: Oscillating and bullish [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating and bullish [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating and bullish [1] - Coke: Oscillating and bullish [1] - Manganese silicon: Bullish oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Bullish oscillation [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel**: The rebar futures prices rose significantly, with the spot price increasing and trading volume rebounding. The production of building materials continued to rise slightly, inventory changed from decreasing to increasing, and apparent demand declined. Affected by supply - side news, the prices of coking coal, coke, and iron ore futures soared, strongly boosting the rebar trend. The short - term rebar futures are expected to be oscillating and bullish [1]. - **Iron ore**: The futures prices of iron ore rose significantly. The shipping volume from Australia, Brazil, and other countries decreased after the year - end rush. The iron - making water output increased slightly, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Under the influence of market sentiment, the iron ore price is expected to be oscillating and bullish [1]. - **Coking coal**: The coking coal futures prices rose. The spot prices in some areas increased. The coal mines maintained normal production, and downstream users mainly made on - demand purchases. Although the iron - making water output rebounded slightly, the market sentiment was pessimistic, and coking enterprises still had price - reduction expectations for raw coal. The short - term coking coal futures are expected to be oscillating and bullish [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures prices rose. The spot prices in ports increased. The overall production of coking enterprises remained stable, and some enterprises reduced production due to profit compression. After four rounds of price cuts, coking enterprises actively shipped. The profitability of steel mills improved, and some steel mills resumed production. However, terminal demand was still weak in the traditional off - season. The short - term coke futures are expected to be oscillating and bullish [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The manganese silicon futures prices strengthened. The overall black sector was strong, driving the manganese silicon futures prices up. The mainstream steel tender had no new progress, and the manganese ore prices were firm, providing cost support. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises continued to accumulate. The short - term manganese silicon futures are expected to maintain a bullish oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the new round of steel tenders, new production capacity release progress, and electricity price policies [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures prices strengthened. The strong performance of the black sector and the news of electricity price adjustment in Shaanxi drove the ferrosilicon futures prices up. There is an expectation of supply reduction, and the demand is supported during the steel tender period. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises is gradually decreasing but remains at a high level in the same period in recent years. The short - term ferrosilicon is expected to be bullish oscillating, but the upside space may be limited, and attention should be paid to the recent steel tender performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3187 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton or 2.44% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 178,000 lots in positions. The spot price rose, and the trading volume rebounded. The national building materials production increased by 1.73 tons to 357.93 tons, social inventory decreased by 4.32 tons to 454.8 tons, factory inventory increased by 6.97 tons to 300.45 tons, and apparent demand decreased by 14.79 tons to 355.28 tons [1]. - **Iron ore**: The iron ore futures main contract i2605 closed at 828 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton or 3.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 490,000 lots and an increase of 26,000 lots in positions. The prices of mainstream port spot varieties rose. The global shipping volume decreased significantly, and the iron - making water output increased slightly. Port inventory continued to accumulate [1]. - **Coking coal**: The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1164 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton or 6.2%, with an increase of 11,257 lots in positions. The spot prices in some areas increased. Coal mines maintained normal production, and downstream users mainly made on - demand purchases [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2605 contract closed at 1773 yuan/ton, up 118 yuan/ton or 7.13%, with an increase of 1678 lots in positions. The spot prices in ports increased. The overall production of coking enterprises remained stable, and some enterprises reduced production due to profit compression. After four rounds of price cuts, coking enterprises actively shipped [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The manganese silicon futures prices strengthened, with the main contract closing at 6000 yuan/ton, up 2.08% month - on - month, and the main contract positions increased by 14,767 lots to 284,300 lots. The mainstream steel tender had no new progress, and the manganese ore prices were firm, providing cost support. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises continued to accumulate [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures prices strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5860 yuan/ton, up 2.56% month - on - month, and the main contract positions decreased by 11,933 lots to 245,600 lots. The strong performance of the black sector and the news of electricity price adjustment in Shaanxi drove the ferrosilicon futures prices up. There is an expectation of supply reduction, and the demand is supported during the steel tender period. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises is gradually decreasing but remains at a high level in the same period in recent years [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of contract spreads for various black commodities, including 5 - 10 months, 10 - 1 months, etc. For example, the 5 - 10 months spread of rebar is - 48.0, down 3.0 month - on - month [3]. - **Basis**: The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of basis for various black commodities. For example, the 05 contract basis of rebar is 133.0, down 36.0 month - on - month [3]. - **Spot Price**: The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of spot prices for various black commodities in different regions. For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai is 3320.0, up 40.0 month - on - month [3]. - **Profit and Spread**: The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of profits and spreads for various black commodities, such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, and cross - variety spreads like volume - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc. [3] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [5][7][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of inter - period contracts for various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, including 01 - 05, 05 - 10, 05 - 09, etc. [25][29][31][37][41]. - **Cross - variety Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of cross - variety contracts for various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, including volume - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon difference [43][46][47]. - **Rebar Profit**: The report shows the profit trends of rebar from 2021 to 2026, including disk profit, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit [49][50][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Currently the assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry's spot trading, research, and consulting. He has won many awards in the futures industry [54]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Currently the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He is a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has won many awards in the futures industry [54]. - **Liu Xi**: A master of science, currently a black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Currently a black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has worked in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, passed the CFA Level 2 exam, and is good at thinking from the perspectives of investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [55].

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the commodity market outlook for 2026, focusing on various sectors including non-ferrous metals, ferrous metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, based on insights from 31 institutions covering 47 trading varieties [1]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The consensus among institutions is a bearish outlook for certain commodities, driven by factors such as oversupply and weak demand, particularly in iron ore and soda ash [3][5]. - Institutions like Yong'an Futures and Guotai Junan express concerns over supply expansion and stagnant demand, predicting price declines and the need for significant production cuts to achieve balance [3][5]. Ferrous Metals - The analysis indicates a mixed sentiment in the steel market, with some institutions predicting a range-bound market while others foresee downward pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand from the real estate sector [3][6]. - Institutions like Huatai Futures and GF Futures highlight the ongoing battle between weak domestic demand and potential policy support, leading to a complex market dynamic [3][6]. Energy and Chemicals - The outlook for coal and chemical products suggests a continuation of oversupply, with institutions forecasting price declines due to high inventory and production levels [4][10]. - The energy sector is characterized by a struggle between high supply and weak demand, with predictions of price fluctuations within defined ranges [4][10]. Agricultural Products - The agricultural commodities segment reflects a cautious approach, with institutions noting the need for production adjustments to address oversupply and maintain price stability [4][10]. - The consensus indicates that without significant demand recovery, prices are likely to remain under pressure [4][10]. Summary of Strategies - Institutions recommend a cautious trading strategy, focusing on short positions during price rebounds and monitoring supply-side adjustments to capture potential market opportunities [5][10]. - The overall sentiment suggests a need for vigilance regarding policy changes and market dynamics that could influence supply and demand balances across various commodities [5][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index)**: Maintain a volatile outlook [15] - **Macro Strategy (Gold)**: Short - term, beware of continued correction risks, consider going long on the gold - silver ratio [20] - **Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Expected to run strongly with a volatile trend, maintain a bullish view [25] - **Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: Continue to hold long - term strategies [27] - **Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: Market is weak, not recommended to bet on oversold rebounds; if there is a rebound, consider short - selling opportunities [30] - **Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Short - term sentiment dominates, steel prices may rebound further, but still need to beware of risks [34] - **Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke)**: Short - term trends are less related to fundamental changes, focus on capital sentiment and policy news [37] - **Black Metal (Steam Coal)**: Prices expected to remain stable in January [40] - **Black Metal (Iron Ore)**: Prices expected to remain strong in the next two weeks [41] - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: Be cautious of the risk of price drops due to capital withdrawal [46] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: Futures prices have rebounded from lows, pay attention to state - reserve sales and customs policies; the May contract lacks a basis for continuous sharp increases under a bumper South American harvest [47] - **Agricultural Products (Hogs)**: Unilateral: Go short on near - term contracts on significant rebounds; Arbitrage: Maintain a reverse arbitrage strategy [51] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: If the MPOB report is not overly bearish and high - frequency data shows continued production cuts and increased exports, consider long positions on the May contract; for rapeseed oil, be cautious due to policy uncertainties [54] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon)**: Consider avoiding short positions for the time being. When the price rises above 9000 RMB/ton, consider short positions based on industry hedging conditions [58] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest a wait - and - see approach [62] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Unilateral: Be cautious about chasing up prices, and take profits on previous long positions in batches; Arbitrage: Wait and see for both monthly spreads and internal - external spreads [65] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon)**: The industry pattern may change significantly. Consider buying put options to participate in the market [69] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Unilateral: Wait patiently for opportunities to buy on dips; Arbitrage: Wait and see [73] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: The market is sensitive to positive information, prices are expected to remain strong, but be cautious about chasing up [76] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: Closely observe short - term capital intentions, and set acceptable stop - losses when going long [77] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Tin)**: Pay attention to supply recovery and demand improvement, beware of price drops when the capital enthusiasm fades [81] - **Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Market concerns about oversupply continue to suppress oil prices [83] - **Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt)**: Prices expected to be volatile [85] - **Energy and Chemicals (Styrene)**: Temporarily treat the market as volatile in the short term [89] - **Energy and Chemicals (PTA)**: Short - term volatile adjustment, consider going long on dips [92] - **Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: In the capacity expansion cycle, maintain a bearish view in the medium term, recommend short - selling on the far - month contracts [94] - **Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass)**: The FG contract is expected to fluctuate between 900 - 1250 RMB/ton in 2026, recommend short - selling on rallies. Pay attention to potential supply - side changes [97] 2. Core Views - The US ADP employment showed moderate growth, indicating a mild downward trend in the labor market, and the US dollar index fluctuated [14] - Gold prices fluctuated and declined, the precious metals sector corrected, and funds shifted between commodity sectors [18] - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded 14 consecutive positive days. A - shares continued to rise with increasing trading volume. Despite market concerns about regulatory cooling, the market still has strong momentum due to abundant domestic liquidity and a bullish pattern [27] - International steam coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend. Although there were news of capacity reduction in Yulin, overall supply was expected to remain stable in 2026 due to new mine production and weak demand, and coal prices were expected to be stable in January [40] - The BMI predicted that the merger and acquisition boom in the mineral metals industry would continue in 2026. Macro factors supporting copper prices may weaken, and short - term fundamentals may suppress copper price increases, with copper prices likely to shift to a volatile pattern [73] - US EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, but gasoline and refined oil inventories increased significantly, and oil prices fluctuated weakly [82] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump plans to ban Wall Street from investing in single - family homes, aiming to reduce housing prices, which may impact private equity owners and homebuilder stocks [12] - US ADP private - sector employment increased by 41,000 in December, mainly driven by the service industry, indicating a mild recovery in the labor market. The US dollar index is expected to remain volatile [13][14][15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US ADP employment in December was 41,000, slightly lower than expected. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI in December was 54.4, higher than expected [16][17] - China's official gold reserves increased by 300,000 ounces in December 2025. Gold prices fluctuated and declined, the precious metals sector corrected, and short - term precious metals still face downward risks [18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Energy Secretary will "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales. The US 12 - month ISM services PMI reached a new high in more than a year, but the employment market demand continued to cool down. The US stock market is expected to be volatile and strong [21][22][24][25] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded 14 consecutive positive days. A - shares were in a bullish sentiment with increasing trading volume. The market has strong momentum due to abundant liquidity [26][27] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation. The bond market is affected by commodity price increases. The overall bond market logic is bearish, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [28][29][30] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In December, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 13% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 10% year - on - year. Steel prices rebounded due to the strong performance of metal prices. Short - term steel prices may continue to rise due to market sentiment, but the actual supply - demand situation is difficult to improve significantly [31][32][33][34] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen market remained stable. The recent sharp increase in coking coal futures was mainly driven by macro capital rotation and news sentiment, with limited connection to fundamentals. The short - term trend is mainly affected by capital and sentiment [35][36][37] 3.2.3 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - International steam coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend on January 7. Although there were capacity reduction news in Yulin, overall supply was expected to remain stable in 2026, and coal prices were expected to be stable in January [38][40] 3.2.4 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The third - stage expansion of the Tonkolili iron ore project in Sierra Leone is advancing. Iron ore prices are expected to remain strong in the next two weeks due to the expected increase in iron - making water production and the low inventory of steel mills [41] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US cotton planting area in 2026 may slightly decrease. The new cotton import quota policy has stimulated the domestic import cotton market, but the large inflow of imported cotton and yarn may impact the domestic market. Zhengzhou cotton futures may face a risk of price drops due to capital withdrawal [42][43][45][46] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 3.383 million tons of soybeans in December. China is still purchasing US soybeans. The price of domestic soybean meal futures has rebounded from lows, but the May contract lacks a basis for continuous sharp increases under a bumper South American harvest [47] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The sales volume of hogs of some companies increased in December. The hog futures market has a short - term high - level shock, but the medium - term fundamentals are weak, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [48][50][51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.64% in December. Indonesia may confiscate 5 - million - hectare palm plantations in 2026. The short - term trend of the oil market depends on MPOB data and high - frequency data [52][53][54] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An organic silicon industry meeting may discuss measures to boost market confidence. The price of industrial silicon followed the increase of coking coal. In the long term, the oversupply pattern of industrial silicon is difficult to change [55][56][57][58] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price had a high - level correction, and the domestic waste battery supply was tight. The lead price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [59][60][61][62] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc price fluctuated and corrected. The short - term zinc price may follow macro fluctuations, and the medium - term price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [63][64][65] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - There are rumors of production cuts by leading polysilicon companies, and the market is concerned about antitrust issues. The polysilicon industry pattern may change significantly, and buying put options is recommended [66][67][68][69] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The BMI predicted that the merger and acquisition boom in the mineral metals industry would continue in 2026. The short - term copper price is likely to shift to a volatile pattern, and waiting for opportunities to buy on dips is recommended [70][73] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company plans to invest 3.688 billion yuan in a lithium ore project. The lithium carbonate market is sensitive to positive information, and prices are expected to remain strong, but be cautious about chasing up [74][75][76] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increased significantly. The nickel price has been strong due to supply reduction expectations, but be cautious when going long and set stop - losses [76][77] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to supply recovery and demand improvement, and beware of price drops when the capital enthusiasm fades [78][79][80][81] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, but gasoline and refined oil inventories increased significantly, and oil prices fluctuated weakly [82][83] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries decreased. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile [84][85] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. The market is concerned about the impact of the new naphtha consumption tax policy on the cost of olefins and aromatics. The short - term market is expected to be volatile [86][87][88][89] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis was strong. The short - term PTA market is in a volatile adjustment stage, and going long on dips is recommended [90][91][92] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the Shahe area was stable. The soda ash futures price increased due to macro sentiment. In the capacity expansion cycle, the medium - term trend of soda ash is bearish [93][94] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Hubei market was stable. The glass futures price increased due to market sentiment. The supply - side changes in 2026 may affect the glass market, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [95][96][97]

周二期现价格窄幅波动,成交持平,现货体感清淡。宏观层面,新驱动和消息并不多,近期大宗商品表现不算差,汇率升值 可能会带来人民币资产的配置优势,观察商品结构性机会的延续,而在这种环境中,黑色板块需要等待新驱动的形成和资金 的入场。产业层面,五材结构表现维持供需两弱,但铁水产量边际上出现持稳回升,钢材产量回落对炉料造成的负面压力边 际上是弱化的;五材中板材去库压力比较突出,对价格上方区间构成压力,以及压制市场参与者的主动持货意愿,1月份之 后铁水产量回升的确定性增加,产业端会有一些适当补库的行为,来释放部分增量买盘,价格低位存在一些支撑。目前产业 矛盾不突出,宏观和市场风偏略好,策略上单边可以震荡思路对待,1月之后市场资金或更充裕,有利于期现头寸入场, 卷期现止套仍可滚动操作。 【硅铁锰硅】情绪转暖,双硅向上 | HE SECHEN | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | 2026/01/07 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the performance and outlook of various black commodities on January 7, 2026. The overall view for most commodities is a range - bound trend, with steel expected to be weakly range - bound [1]. - Steel: The rebar futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. Although there is an expectation of monetary policy easing, the increase in production and the decline in terminal demand due to cold weather may lead to increased supply - demand pressure. The short - term rebar futures are likely to be weakly range - bound [1]. - Iron ore: The futures price rose. After the year - end shipping rush, the global shipping volume decreased significantly. With the planned blast furnace inspections in steel mills, the inventory at ports is increasing. The ore price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [1]. - Coking coal: The futures price increased. Some coal mines resumed production, increasing the supply. Steel mills have low profits and are resistant to high - priced coal. The short - term coking coal futures are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1]. - Coke: The futures price went up. Most coke enterprises maintained their previous production levels, and the slowdown in the price decline of some raw coal types strengthened the support for coke prices. However, there is still an expectation of a fifth - round price cut. The short - term coke futures are expected to be in wide - range oscillation [1]. - Manganese silicon: The futures price strengthened in an oscillatory manner. The mainstream steel procurement has no new progress, and the manganese ore price is firm, providing cost support. The inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price rose significantly. There is news of an electricity price adjustment for restricted ferro - alloy enterprises in Shaanxi. The supply in December decreased slightly but remained high. During the steel procurement period, demand is supported. The inventory is still at a high level. The short - term upside space may be limited [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Commodity | Futures Price Movement | Spot Price Movement | Supply - Demand Situation | Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel (Rebar) | The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3111 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.23%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 14,600 lots in positions | The spot price was basically stable, with the transaction volume remaining low. The price of Qian'an billets in Tangshan was flat at 2930 yuan/ton, and the price of Zhongtian rebar in the Hangzhou market was flat at 3200 yuan/ton. The national building materials trading volume was 96,600 tons | The production of hot metal and rebar increased. The latest weekly rebar production increased by 38,300 tons to 1.8822 million tons, rising for three consecutive weeks. Terminal demand declined with the drop in temperature | Weakly range - bound [1] | | Iron ore | The main contract i2605 closed at 801 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.5%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 310,000 lots and an increase of 22,000 lots in positions | The spot prices of mainstream varieties at ports increased. For example, the 60.8% PB powder in Rizhao Port rose to 806 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan | After the year - end shipping rush, the shipping volumes from Australia, Brazil, and other countries decreased, and the global shipping volume declined significantly. Steel mills have blast furnace inspection plans, and the port inventory is accumulating | Range - bound [1] | | Coking coal | The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1096 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan/ton (1.43%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 2636 lots in positions | The price of main coking coal in Shanxi Lvliang decreased by 40 yuan to 1410 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port rose to 970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of Mongolian 3 clean coal remained unchanged at 1045 yuan/ton | Some previously shut - down coal mines resumed production, increasing the supply. Steel mills have low profits and are resistant to high - priced coal, and there is an expectation of a fifth - round price cut for coke | Wide - range oscillation [1] | | Coke | The coke 2605 contract closed at 1655 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton (0.39%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 1564 lots in positions | The spot price at ports decreased. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port was 1420 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan | Most coke enterprises maintained their previous production levels, and the slowdown in the price decline of some raw coal types strengthened the support for coke prices. The blast furnace hot metal production of steel mills increased slightly, but it is the off - season for steel demand, and there is still an expectation of a fifth - round price cut | Wide - range oscillation [1] | | Manganese silicon | The main contract closed at 5918 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 83 lots in positions to 269,600 lots | The northern factories' quotes for 6517 are mainly in the range of 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the southern factories' quotes are generally in the range of 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton | The mainstream steel procurement has no new progress. The manganese ore price is firm. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises is still accumulating | Range - bound [1] | | Ferrosilicon | The main contract closed at 5776 yuan/ton, up 2.81% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 30,174 lots in positions to 257,500 lots | The ex - factory prices of ferrosilicon in major producing areas are in the range of 5200 - 5350 yuan/ton | There is news of an electricity price adjustment for restricted ferro - alloy enterprises in Shaanxi. The supply in December decreased slightly but remained high. During the steel procurement period, demand is supported, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises is gradually decreasing but still at a high level | Limited upside space, range - bound [3] | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as profit and spread data such as rebar's盘面 profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, and various cross - commodity spreads [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents historical price charts of the main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][11][14]. - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows historical basis charts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 - 2026 [17][18][21][23]. - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides historical spread charts for different contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 10, etc.) of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][27][31][33][34][37][38]. - **3.3.4 Cross - commodity Contract Spreads**: It includes charts of cross - commodity spreads such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, etc., from 2021 - 2026 [43][46][47]. - **3.3.5 Rebar Profits**: The report shows historical charts of rebar's盘面 profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2021 - 2026 [49][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black commodity field [54][55].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content Core Views - The global geopolitical risk is potentially rising due to Trump's consideration of using force to seize Greenland, leading to short - term volatility in the US dollar index [1][15] - Gold prices continue to rise, and there is an increased willingness to go long on commodities. However, there are risks of short - term market fluctuations and precious metal corrections [2][12][13] - A - shares are extremely strong at the beginning of the year, and the market has entered a bullish phase. It is recommended to hold long positions in the short term [3][22][23] - The steel market is expected to continue its range - bound pattern in the short term due to insufficient accumulation of contradictions [4][29][30] - The overall market sentiment for lithium carbonate is more sensitive to bullish information, and the price is expected to remain strong, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [5][46][47] - Oil prices have fallen, with a decline in US API crude oil inventory but a significant increase in gasoline and diesel inventories [6][58][59] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump and his team are discussing plans to acquire Greenland, and Fed official Milan expects data to support further interest rate cuts [11][12] - Gold prices continue to rise, and there is increased enthusiasm for short - term market speculation. The probability of a January interest rate cut is low, and attention should be paid to the next Fed chair selection and the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weights [12] - It is recommended to be aware of the risk of precious metal corrections in the short term and consider going long on the gold - silver ratio [13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US will support Ukraine if it is attacked by Russia again, and Trump warns of potential impeachment if he loses the mid - term elections. Trump is considering using the military to seize Greenland [14][15] - The global geopolitical risk is potentially rising, and the US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [15] - It is expected that the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [16] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump's government is discussing plans to acquire Greenland, and there are differences among Fed officials regarding future interest rate cuts [17][18][19] - Short - term geopolitical risks remain, and the market reaction is limited. Future Fed decisions will mainly depend on data trends [19] - It is expected that the US stock market will fluctuate strongly, and a bullish approach should be maintained [20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and A - shares are extremely strong at the beginning of the year [21][22] - The market has entered a bullish phase, and trading volume is the key indicator. It is recommended to hold long positions in the short term [22][23] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out a 162 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2963 billion yuan on the day [25] - The bond market is in a headwind situation, and it is recommended not to bet on oversold rebounds. Short - selling opportunities can be considered if there is a rebound [26][27] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Handan lifted the emergency response to heavy pollution weather [28] - Steel prices are expected to continue their range - bound pattern in the short term due to insufficient accumulation of contradictions and potential pressure on finished product inventories [29] - A range - bound approach is recommended for steel prices in the short term [30] 2.2 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable with a slight upward trend on January 6 [31] - Short - term coal prices are expected to continue their weak and volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to daily consumption and pre - holiday start - up changes [31] 2.3 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources' quarterly iron ore shipments reached a new high [31] - The iron ore price is expected to have strong short - term support but limited upside [32] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 31.12% from January 1 - 5, while production decreased by 34.48% [33][34] - There are preliminary signs of supply pressure relief, but there is still high uncertainty. It is recommended to lightly position long on the 05 contract in advance and add positions gradually after clear bullish signals [34] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Sugar production data from different regions in China shows a mixed picture, with overall weak demand [35][36][37] - The Zhengzhou sugar futures main contract is expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to the start of pre - holiday stocking demand and sugar mill production and sales progress [38] 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lead) - On January 5, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $45.52 per ton [39] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see both for single - side and arbitrage strategies [39][40] 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metal (Zinc) - On January 5, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $36.3 per ton, and Vedanta's fourth - quarter zinc concentrate production increased by 8% year - on - year [41] - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions and to take partial profits on previous long positions [43][44] 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - The first batch of price negotiations for lithium iron phosphate in the new year has landed [45] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [46][47] 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metal (Copper) - Ukraine will ban the export of metal scrap starting from 2026, and Codelco's 2025 copper production increased slightly [48][49] - Macro factors support copper price increases, but short - term fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to buy on dips for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage [50][51] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metal (Nickel) - Indonesian mining companies can produce 25% of their 2026 planned output in Q1 [52] - It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips for single - side trading and continue to hold previously recommended option strategies [54][55] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metal (Tin) - On January 5, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $30.01 per ton [56] - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to supply recovery and demand improvement, and beware of price drops due to the fading of capital enthusiasm [57][58] 2.12 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventory decreased, but refined product inventories increased significantly [58] - Attention should be paid to geopolitical risk disturbances [60] 2.13 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - On January 6, the CEA closing price was 74.63 yuan per ton [61] - The CEA price is expected to remain volatile [62]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：新年首个交易日，螺纹盘面震荡下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3104 元/吨，较上一 交易收盘价格下跌 18 元/吨，跌幅为 0.58%，持仓增加 4.31 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交回落，唐山地 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 区迁安普方坯价格持平于 2930 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3200 元/吨，全国建材成交 | | | | 量 8.68 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存下降 3.22%至 301.59 万吨，热卷库存增加 3.74%至 206.75 万 | | | | 吨。建材库存降幅有所收窄，热卷库存由降转增。随着钢厂盈利改善，近期铁水及螺纹产量均有所回升， | | | | 最新螺纹周度产量环比回升 3.83 万吨至 188.22 万吨，已连续三周出现回升。而随着气温下降，近期工程 | | | | 施工节奏放缓，终端需求逐步回落，市场供需压力有所加大。预计短期螺纹盘面或震荡偏弱运行。 | | ...

2026年01月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 3 | | 硅铁：结算电价下移，价格偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：节后询价情绪浓厚，等待钢招落地 | 5 | | 焦炭：矛盾积累，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：矛盾积累，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12605 | | 797.0 | 7.5 | 0. 95% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 618. 77 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - A-shares started 2026 with a strong performance, and technology stocks are expected to remain the main theme in the near term. The market may continue to strengthen without further negative news [1][22]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, indicating a further weakening of the real economy and a short - term decline in the US dollar [2][16]. - The precious metals market was boosted by the Venezuelan situation, but the impact is limited. There may be short - term selling pressure due to the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weight, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to rise [3][12]. - The cotton market is currently dominated by capital, and there is a risk of a decline if capital exits [4][33]. - Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the increase in iron - water production putting pressure on finished - product inventories [5][36]. - Copper prices may fluctuate upward, mainly driven by macro - sentiment, while the fundamentals are currently inconsistent with the price increase [6][52]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US may subsidize the reconstruction of Venezuela's oil infrastructure. The precious metals market was boosted by the Venezuelan situation, but the short - term impact is limited. The adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weight will bring short - term selling pressure. The 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, mainly due to the inventory component [11][12]. - Investment advice: The short - term price of precious metals will fluctuate, and there is a risk of a decline. The gold - silver ratio is expected to rise [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - AI is causing large enterprises to slow down their recruitment. The US ISM manufacturing index hit a one - year low, with the index falling from 48.2 in November to 47.9 and remaining below the 50 mark for the 10th consecutive month. Venezuelan President Maduro pleaded not guilty in the US court. - The US real economy is further weakening, and the US dollar is expected to decline in the short term [14][15][16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will weaken in the short term [17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly shrank, with new orders contracting for the fourth consecutive month, weak export orders, and a continued decline in employment. The overall index was mainly dragged down by the accelerated inventory decline. - Fed official Kashkari said the US interest rate is close to the neutral level. The geopolitical risk has limited impact on the US stock market, and the three major stock indexes rose. The US stock market is expected to remain volatile and strong [18][19]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to operate in a volatile and upward manner, and a long - position approach is recommended [20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares started 2026 with a strong performance, with nearly 4,200 stocks rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.38%, and the trading volume increased. Nine departments jointly issued a notice to promote green consumption. - The market sentiment is high, and technology stocks are expected to be the main theme. The market may continue to strengthen without further negative news [21][22]. - Investment advice: Continue to hold long positions in stock index futures and allocate evenly among different stock indexes [23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 135 - million - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 46.88 billion yuan. - The bond market has been weak recently due to multiple factors. The new fee regulations are beneficial to the bond market, but they cannot change the current situation of many macro and micro negatives. The bond market is facing an unfavorable situation at the beginning of 2026, with potential risks of decline if economic indicators exceed expectations [24][25]. - Investment advice: Consider short - hedging strategies and maintain a certain short - hedging position [26]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In the first week of 2026, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased, while the apparent consumption of soybean meal decreased. In December 2025, about 9.0968 million tons of imported soybeans arrived at domestic oil mills, and about 2.301 million tons arrived in the first week of 2026. - The international soybean market has not changed much, and the domestic soybean meal supply - demand situation remains weak. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased [27][28]. - Investment advice: If South American soybeans have a good harvest, the May contract of soybean meal will remain weak. Continue to monitor national reserve and customs policies [29]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In November 2025, Japan's textile and clothing imports decreased, and the imports from China decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. India's cotton production is expected to decline by 1.7% in the 2026 cotton year, and the revenue and profit of related enterprises are also expected to decline. The spot cotton market has a cold trading atmosphere, and ginneries are reluctant to sell at low prices. - Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a volatile trend on January 5. The technical and market sentiment are still bullish, but there is a risk of a decline if capital exits due to factors such as the deterioration of cotton yarn production profits and poor price transmission [30][31][33]. - Investment advice: Be vigilant against the risk of a decline if capital exits [34]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Vietnam continued to impose anti - dumping duties on Chinese cold - rolled carbon steel coils for five years, with the tax rate remaining between 4.43% and 25.22%. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales reached 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. - Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The increase in iron - water production will put pressure on finished - product inventories, and the change in exports also needs attention [35][36]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile approach to steel prices in the short term [37]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to reach a nearly seven - year high in December due to strong production and weak exports. - The palm oil market was weak. The market is expected to see a gradual relief of supply pressure with the continued production reduction in January and the start of Ramadan stocking. - Investment advice: Wait for the signal of supply - pressure relief in January and then gradually build long positions in the May contract [38][39][40]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On January 5, the price difference between imported steam coal and domestic steam coal was reported. Some traders are optimistic about the short - term coal price and are reluctant to sell, but there are few transactions in the market. - After a continuous decline in December, coal prices stabilized before the New Year's Day. The coal consumption is in a negative - growth state, and the supply side may change. Attention should be paid to whether coal mines will actively reduce production in January [41]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the coal - mine start - up situation in January [42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - In 2025, more than 11.5 million vehicles were traded in the "trade - in" program. - The iron - ore market remains volatile. With the stabilization of iron - water production in January and low inventory in downstream steel mills, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The market is concerned about the steel - mill restocking situation in January [43]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the steel - mill restocking situation in January [44]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - In the statistical period from December 22 to December 28, 2025, the weighted average price of photovoltaic modules was 0.74 yuan/watt, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/watt compared with the previous period. The polysilicon transaction price increased, and the production schedule began to decline. - In January, the polysilicon production is expected to be about 105,000 tons, and the sales quota is about 60,000 tons. Although the production is still in surplus, the actual supply is less than the demand in terms of the sales quota. The polysilicon spot is still considered bullish [45][46]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips. Be cautious when holding positions due to large market fluctuations and regulatory measures [47]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a guide to promote the high - quality development of the power grid. In the previous week, industrial silicon production in Xinjiang and Sichuan decreased, and the inventory increased. The production cuts in January may lead to a tight balance, but if the cuts are not sustainable, there will be a large - scale inventory accumulation in 2026. - Some large factories started hedging sales after the price increase, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high [48][49]. - Investment advice: Consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds [49]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The new solid - waste management regulations will affect the approval of non - ferrous metal beneficiation projects. The Chilean government is trying to resolve a copper mine strike. The global data center's copper consumption is expected to increase to 740,000 tons in 2026. - Macro - factors continue to support copper prices, but the fundamentals are inconsistent with the price increase in the short term. The domestic copper inventory is expected to increase in January, which will limit the price increase [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: On the long - only side, it is recommended to buy on dips; on the arbitrage side, it is recommended to wait and see [53]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Jien Nickel's 60,000 - ton nickel sulfate project in Pan Shi was put into operation. Due to the non - approval of the nickel - ore RKAB quota in 2026, Vale Indonesia's nickel - ore mining in some areas was suspended. - The suspension has little short - term impact on the supply and demand, but it shows that Indonesia's raw - material supply is tightening. The current price is close to the full cost of NPI, and if the price remains high, some production may resume. The refined - nickel production in January is expected to increase [55][56]. - Investment advice: Consider long - position opportunities on dips. Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls, and closely monitor the quota release [57]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Tianci Materials plans to conduct a 20 - 30 - day maintenance on its 150,000 - ton liquid lithium hexafluorophosphate production line. - The lithium - carbonate futures price continued to rise. The market is sensitive to positive news. The inventory reduction slowed down last week, the production increased, and the downstream demand is weak. There is a risk of a short - term correction [58][59][60]. - Investment advice: Existing long - position holders can gradually take profits. Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the medium term [60]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Ganfeng Lithium's 2.4 - million - ton/year lithium - tin polymetallic mine in Inner Mongolia has been approved, and the mining equipment is being delivered. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, and the LME tin inventory increased. The tin - ore supply is still tight, and the demand is weak. The spot market trading is average [60][61][62]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the supply recovery and demand improvement, and be vigilant against the price decline when the capital enthusiasm fades [63]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US Energy Secretary plans to meet with oil industry leaders to discuss the "restart" of Venezuela's energy sector. - The oil price first fell and then rose. The change in the Venezuelan situation had little impact on the oil price. There is a high risk of a short - term production decline in Venezuela, and it is difficult to reverse the long - term production decline in the short term. The market has not fully priced in the supply surplus [64][65]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the risk of geopolitical conflicts [66]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of January 4, the inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventories increased. The US attack on Venezuela led to the suspension of Venezuelan oil exports and production, strengthening the cost support for asphalt. - The asphalt price was boosted in the short term, but the risk premium may gradually decline [66][67]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price is boosted in the short term, but the risk premium may fade away [67]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable on January 5. The supply of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was stable, and the downstream demand was weak. - The caustic - soda futures price fell significantly. The supply is at a high level, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [68][69][70]. - Investment advice: The caustic - soda market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [70]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers decreased at the end of 2025. The urea price fluctuated upward. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand from compound - fertilizer enterprises is weak. India's urea tender and the supply reduction in Iran support the international urea price. - The inventory of urea enterprises is decreasing, but the inventory - reduction rate may slow down in the future. Do not chase the rise now. Pay attention to the spring - plowing fertilizer - stocking demand and export - policy changes after the New Year [71][72][73]. - Investment advice: Do not chase the rise now. Consider long - position opportunities after the New Year when there is a certain safety margin [73]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of January 5, 2026, the pure - benzene inventory in East China ports increased. The pure - benzene market has a high inventory problem, and the demand depends on the restart and load increase of downstream styrene plants. The styrene market is affected by export news and maintenance, and it is expected to be difficult to strengthen further. - The pure - benzene market is expected to remain in a bottom - grinding stage, and the short - term profit growth of styrene is limited. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [74][75][76]. - Investment advice: The pure - benzene market is in a bottom - grinding stage, and the short - term profit growth of styrene is limited. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [76].