Group 1: Energy - The international oil price fell overnight, with the Brent 01 contract down 0.8%. The geopolitical risk premium of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was suppressed, and the oil price rebound due to geopolitical factors was limited. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil. The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and strong diesel cracking, while the high-sulfur market is expected to face supply increases in the medium term [21] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market sentiment is bearish [22] - The expected import cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is rising in December. The demand from both the chemical and combustion sectors is improving, and the LPG market is expected to be strong [23] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals are oscillating at a high level. The employment data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements are divided. The possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough on the technical side [2] - Copper prices fell overnight due to a stronger dollar and weak demand. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 87,000 yuan [3] - Aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are uncertain, and the aluminum market may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the support of the middle Bollinger Band [4] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The inventory structure is gradually being repaired, and there is still profit potential for cross-market arbitrage [7] - Lead prices are supported by low inventory levels, but the external market is under pressure due to high inventory. The import window for aluminum ingots may open, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [8] - Nickel prices are weakening. The macro risk is increasing, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is increasing [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. The environmental rectification in Malaysia has limited impact on the market. The import of tin concentrate in China has improved slightly, but the resumption of supply from Myanmar is not strong. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] - Lithium carbonate prices are strengthening. The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The technical analysis shows a range breakthrough, and a buy-on-dip strategy can be adopted [11] - Polycrystalline silicon prices are falling. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the actual supply-demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Industrial silicon prices are undergoing a technical correction. The downstream demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is expected to improve, which may boost the price [13] Group 3: Building Materials - Steel prices rebounded at night. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is improving, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. Attention should be paid to the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [14] - Iron ore prices are oscillating. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [15] - Coke and coking coal prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable, but the steel mills' profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is high [16][17] - Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices are falling. The market expects coal supply to increase, which may lower the cost. The demand is stable, but the supply is high, and the bottom support may weaken [18][19] Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices are oscillating narrowly. The Indian tender results will affect the market sentiment. The agricultural demand is weakening, but the industrial demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [24] - Methanol prices are in a weak position. The overseas supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [25] - Pure benzene prices are rebounding, but the sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure is easing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the export to the US faces challenges [26] - Styrene prices are supported by cost and supply reduction. The demand from the European market is strong [27] - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices are expected to be weak. The supply is high, and the demand is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is increasing [28] - PVC and caustic soda prices are falling. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the cost changes and profit margins [29] - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. The supply from overseas may be affected, and the demand is weakening. The market is cautiously bullish [30] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be bearish. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short strategy can be adopted [31] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices are under pressure. The demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to follow the raw material prices [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are oscillating. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs to be monitored. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered after the correction [36] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the US biodiesel policy. The palm oil price may have bottomed out [37] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure. The import volume has decreased, and the demand is weak. A bearish strategy is recommended [38] - Corn prices are oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to decline [40] - Hog prices are at a low level. The futures market is trading on the potential supply pressure in the future. The pig price may form a double bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg prices are rebounding strongly. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous price decline has ended [42] - Cotton prices are range-bound. The US cotton export sales are increasing, but the domestic demand is average. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range-bound in the short term [43] - Sugar prices are oscillating. The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is focusing on the new season's production estimate. The production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level. The short-term price is strong due to low inventory, but the long-term inventory pressure may exist. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction [44] Group 6: Others - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in early December and may improve in late December. The 02 contract may be slightly discounted compared to the 12 contract, and the far-month contracts are expected to be low and oscillating [20] - Wood prices are oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and a wait-and-see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp prices are falling. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [46] - Stock index futures are falling. The A-share market is volatile, and the external market is uncertain. A wait-and-see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to stable, consumer, and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury bond futures are falling. The market is trading lightly, and the structure is differentiated. The change in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48]

Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the performance of various futures contracts across different sectors, highlighting price changes and trends over multiple time frames. Group 1: Financial and Precious Metals - The Shanghai Composite 300 futures decreased by 0.69%, with a year-to-date increase of 19.81% [8] - The SHFE gold futures rose by 0.22%, while the year-to-date increase stands at 48.84% [8] - The SHFE silver futures increased by 0.75%, with a year-to-date increase of 58.85% [8] Group 2: Nonferrous Metals and New Energy Materials - SHFE copper futures rose by 0.19%, with a year-to-date increase of 16.92% [9] - SHFE aluminum futures decreased by 0.05%, with a year-to-date increase of 9.10% [9] - GFEX lithium carbonate futures increased by 0.84%, with a year-to-date increase of 28.12% [9] Group 3: Black Commodities - SHFE rebar futures fell by 1.01%, with a year-to-date decrease of 11.67% [10] - DCE iron ore futures decreased by 0.32%, with a year-to-date increase of 8.21% [10] - DCE coking coal futures dropped by 3.17%, with a year-to-date decrease of 18.57% [10] Group 4: Agricultural Products - DCE soybean meal futures decreased by 0.46%, with a year-to-date increase of 3.83% [11] - CZCE apple futures increased by 1.26%, with a year-to-date increase of 36.24% [11] - DCE live hog futures fell by 1.00%, with a year-to-date decrease of 21.55% [11] Group 5: Energy and Chemicals - INE crude oil futures decreased by 1.66%, with a year-to-date decrease of 6.97% [12] - DCE ethylene glycol futures fell by 2.05%, with a year-to-date decrease of 21.88% [12] - CZCE soda ash futures dropped by 2.93%, with a year-to-date decrease of 26.95% [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The production of building materials continues to decline, the inventory decline has widened, and the apparent demand has decreased. The Mongolian government's proposal to increase coal exports to China may lead to an increase in coal supply, which has an impact on the overall black commodities. The short - term rebar futures market is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation [1]. - The iron ore market shows that supply is increasing, demand is facing pressure as the loss range of steel mills expands, and inventory is rising. In the short term, ore prices will show a volatile trend [1]. - The coking coal market has limited supply growth, and downstream procurement has become more cautious after the end of the phased replenishment. The short - term coking coal futures market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [1]. - The coke market has improved supply as coke enterprises' production enthusiasm has increased after price increases, and demand has slightly improved with the resumption of production of steel mills. However, due to the off - season in the terminal market and poor profitability of steel mills, the short - term coke futures market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [1]. - The manganese - silicon market has cost support, but production has declined, demand from steel procurement is limited, and inventory has reached a new high. The short - term market is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and production in major producing areas [1]. - The silicon - iron market has cost support, but production has decreased due to large losses, and terminal demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate with the overall black market in the short term, and attention should be paid to production cuts in major producing areas and market sentiment [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views Steel - The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3070 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.65% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 24,300 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and trading volume decreased. National building material production, social inventory, factory inventory, and apparent demand all declined. It is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 791.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with 250,000 lots traded and an increase of 10,000 lots in positions. Supply increased, demand (iron - water production increased but steel - mill losses expanded), and inventory increased. Short - term ore prices will show a volatile trend [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1139.5 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan/ton or 1.68% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 21,093 lots in positions. Spot prices decreased. Supply growth was limited, and downstream procurement became more cautious. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [1]. Coke - The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1639 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 592 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable. Supply improved, and demand slightly increased, but the short - term market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [1]. Manganese - Silicon - The manganese - silicon futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5642 yuan/ton, down 1.16% from the previous day, and an increase of 31,861 lots in positions. Cost has support, production has declined, demand is limited, and inventory has reached a new high. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [1]. Silicon - Iron - The silicon - iron futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5462 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from the previous day, and a decrease of 417 lots in positions. Production has decreased due to losses, demand is weak, and cost has support. It is expected to fluctuate with the overall black market [1][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 46.0, up 3.0; the 1 - 5 month spread of iron ore was 36.5, up 2.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the 01 rebar contract was 150.0, up 10.0; the basis of the 01 iron ore contract was 52.9, up 0.5 [4]. - **Profit and Spreads**: The rebar futures profit was - 98.5, down 13.9; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 207.0, up 11.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the historical closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron from 2020 to 2025 [5][6][7][8][9][10][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the historical basis of main contracts for various black commodities from 2022 - 2026 [15][16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts show the historical spreads of different contract periods for various black commodities from 2020 - 2026 [24][25][27][31][33][34][37][38]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the historical spreads between different varieties such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. from 2020 - 2025 [42][43][44][45][47]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts show the historical profits of rebar main contracts including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 - 2025 [46][48][49][51][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the black industry [54]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [55].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [3]. - For iron ore, high inventory suppresses prices, but short - term iron ore demand is supported by the rebound in hot metal production. The price will run within a volatile range in the short term [6]. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The future price increase depends on the introduction and intensity of stimulus policies [10][11]. - Industrial silicon may present a "supply - demand double - weak" pattern. Its price may rise further with开工 rate decline and sentiment boost, otherwise, it may fall [16]. - Polysilicon is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but short - term de - stocking is limited, and the price will fluctuate widely within a range [18]. - Glass supply contraction is limited, demand is weak, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [21]. - Soda ash supply is relatively high, demand is average, and the price will continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3070 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.64%) from the previous trading day, with registered warehouse receipts of 95087 tons, a net increase of 8415 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.631133 million lots, a decrease of 24336 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai rebar summary prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3277 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.27%) from the previous trading day, with registered warehouse receipts of 120567 tons, unchanged. The main contract's open interest was 1.196921 million lots, a decrease of 20253 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai hot - rolled coil summary prices remained unchanged [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Rebar shows a pattern of double - decline in supply and demand, with continuous inventory reduction, presenting a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, and inventory is accumulating against the season. In the short term, prices are likely to be weak and volatile, but there may be a demand inflection point later [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 791.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.06% (- 0.50), and the open interest increased by 9616 lots to 480,900 lots. The weighted open interest was 917,200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.85 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.15% [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded significantly, with increases in both Australian and Brazilian shipments. Demand: The daily average hot metal production has rebounded, but the steel mill profitability rate is declining. Inventory: Port inventory is accumulating, and steel mill inventory has increased slightly. High inventory suppresses prices, but short - term demand is supported by the rebound in hot metal production, and the price will run within a volatile range [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes** - On November 19, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) fell 0.67% to close at 5642 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot market price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 198 yuan/ton over the futures. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) fell 0.33% to close at 5504 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot market price was 5500 yuan/ton, with a discount of 4 yuan/ton to the futures [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The black sector has been oscillating downward. As the time approaches December, the macro - expectation is positive. It is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound. Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore end. Ferrosilicon has no obvious supply - demand contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Quotes** - The main industrial silicon futures contract (SI2601) closed at 9390 yuan/ton, up 4.57% (+ 410). The weighted contract open interest increased by 70215 lots to 470943 lots. The spot prices of East China's non - oxygen - blowing 553 and 421 remained unchanged, with basis of - 40 yuan/ton and - 440 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Affected by the new energy sector, the price rose rapidly. It may present a "supply - demand double - weak" pattern. The cost provides support. The price may rise further if the开工 rate declines, otherwise, it may fall [14][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Quotes** - The main polysilicon futures contract (PS2601) closed at 54625 yuan/ton, up 4.63% (+ 2415). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 2906 lots to 233574 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of - 2325 yuan/ton [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - It is in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but short - term de - stocking is limited. The price will fluctuate widely within a range, and attention should be paid to the progress of the platform company and price feedback [18]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Quotes** - The glass main contract closed at 1009 yuan/ton on Wednesday, down 0.79% (- 8). The North China and Central China quotes remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 111,000 boxes (+ 0.18%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 2020 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 11275 lots [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply contraction is limited, demand is weak, inventory is high, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [21]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Quotes** - The soda ash main contract closed at 1182 yuan/ton on Wednesday, down 2.64% (- 32). The Shahe heavy - soda quote decreased by 27. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 0.69 million tons (- 0.18%), with heavy - soda inventory increasing by 0.75 million tons and light - soda inventory decreasing by 1.44 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 42148 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 67894 lots [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply is relatively high, demand is average, and the price will continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high [2] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Logs: Oscillation and repetition [2] Core Viewpoints - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, along with their respective fundamental data and macro - industry news [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price was 791.5 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The 12601 contract had a position of 480,907 hands, an increase of 9,616 hands. Spot prices of various types of iron ore remained unchanged. The basis and spreads had minor changes [4] - **Macro - Industry News**: In October, the year - on - year actual growth of the added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, and the year - to - date growth from January to October was 6.1% [5] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,070 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,277 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and spot prices. The basis and spreads also changed [8] - **Macro - Industry News**: According to the November 13th weekly data from Steel Union, there were decreases in production, total inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil. In October 2025, there were changes in national steel production, imports, and exports [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon 2601, the closing price was 5,462 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. For silicomanganese 2601, the closing price was 5,642 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and spot prices. The basis and spreads also changed [12] - **Macro - Industry News**: On November 19th, there were price ranges for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions [12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal JM2601, the closing price was 1,139.5 yuan/ton, down 1.7%. For coke J2601, the closing price was 1,639 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and spot prices. The basis and spreads also changed [15] - **Macro - Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: There were data on the trading volume, positions, and closing prices of different contracts, as well as spot - futures spreads and price changes in the log spot market [18] - **Macro - Industry News**: Customs总署 decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs from November 10, 2025 [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]

Report Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for different asset classes are as follows: - Index: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term shock, cautious long [2] - Commodity sectors: - Black metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2] - Non - ferrous metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Precious metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3] Core Views - The global market is affected by the Fed's monetary policy expectations, domestic economic growth, and policy stimulus. The short - term upward drive of the macro - economy has weakened, and different asset classes show short - term shock characteristics. Attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2][3] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Overseas, the Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences, and many thought it was not suitable to cut interest rates in December. The market expected no rate cut this year, leading to a rise in the US dollar and Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's October economic data slowed down year - on - year and fell short of expectations, and the central bank restarted Treasury bond trading to release liquidity. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and the index will be in short - term shock [2] - Index: Driven by sectors such as precious metals, it rose slightly. Affected by economic data and the Fed's hawkish signals, the short - term upward drive has weakened, and it will be in short - term shock. Short - term cautious wait - and - see [3] - Precious metals: The market rose slightly at night on Wednesday. Affected by the Fed's possible inaction in December and the strong US dollar, short - term shock, long - term upward pattern remains. Short - term cautious wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3] Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures markets declined on Wednesday. Demand continued to weaken, inventory decreased, and production decreased. There are no new contradictions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range [4][6] - Iron ore: The spot price fell slightly on Wednesday, and the futures price remained strong. The bottom of iron - making water production is uncertain, supply has changed slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [6] - Silicon manganese/silicon iron: The spot price was flat on Wednesday, and the futures price was affected by coal. Demand is still poor, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in a range [7] - Soda ash: The main contract was weak on Wednesday. Supply decreased marginally but remained loose, and demand improved marginally. Short - term range shock, long - term bearish [8] - Glass: The main contract was weak on Wednesday. Supply was stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was at a high level. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rebounded slightly. Supply concerns still exist, but US and domestic inventories are high, and there is a risk of price decline [10] - Aluminum: On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded. Technically, there may be room for further rebound, but inventory is at a three - year high, and there may be a large correction later [10] - Tin: Supply is tight, demand is weak, inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [11] - Lithium carbonate: The main contract rose on Wednesday. The price of lithium ore increased, and the trading volume increased. Hold long positions cautiously [12] - Industrial silicon: The main contract rose on Tuesday. The organic silicon industry plans to reduce emissions and support prices. Pay attention to the continuation of funds and buy on dips [12] - Polysilicon: The main contract rose on Tuesday. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [13][14] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: EIA data showed an increase in US refined oil inventories, and the hope of restarting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine led to a decline in oil prices. It is expected to remain under pressure [15] - Asphalt: The price remained low. Inventory was decreasing slightly, but demand was weak, and the over - supply pressure was high. Pay attention to the fluctuation of crude oil [15] - PX: The import from Japan is uncertain, and PTA demand provides some support. It is in a tight supply situation, and pay attention to cost changes [16] - PTA: The import of PX is uncertain, and downstream demand is weak. The supply is high, and the long - term bearish pressure is large [16] - Ethylene glycol: Port inventory has accumulated significantly, downstream demand is weakening, and the price is expected to remain low and fluctuate [16] - Short fiber: It rebounded slightly in the short term, but the later pressure is large. The terminal orders are decreasing seasonally, and it can be shorted on highs in the medium term [17] Agricultural Products - US soybeans: The overnight market declined. Brazil's November export volume is expected to increase, and there is an export order to China [19] - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The supply and demand of domestic oil mills are loose, the basis is weak, and there may be a phased correction [19] - Soybean and rapeseed oil: The price was boosted by EPA biodiesel news. The supply of domestic soybean oil is strong, and rapeseed oil inventory is at a low level [20] - Palm oil: The Malaysian futures market continued to rise, but domestic inventory increased, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [20] - Corn: The price in Northeast China remained stable. Inventory is low, and there is a willingness to buy in the market. The futures may repair the basis [20] - Live pigs: The morning price was stable and strong. Supply is excessive, and the futures may continue to decline [21]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 11 月 19 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3090 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 据国家统计局数据，2025 年 10 月中国钢筋产量为 1434.0 万吨，同比下降 18.6%；1-10 月累计产量为 15801.0 | 窄幅整理 | | | 下跌 7 元/吨，跌幅为 0.23%，持仓减少 7.43 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格持平于 2970 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3170 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.64 万吨。 | | | | 万吨，同比下降 2.0%。10 月中国中厚宽钢带产量为 1814.5 万吨，同比增长 6.3%；1-10 月累计产量为 18749.6 | | | | 万吨，同比增长 5.3%。10 月钢筋产量明显下降，在一定程度上缓解了供应压力。目前螺纹需求逐步回落， | | | | 同时供给也在下降，市场处于供需双弱局面。预计短 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile due to weak off - season demand and high plate inventory. However, with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may see a marginal inflection point later [2]. - For the black sector, compared to short - selling, finding positions to go long for a rebound may be more cost - effective. The height of the rebound depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies. The macro factor is more important than the weak fundamentals that have been priced in [9]. - In the long run, the easing expectation remains unchanged, and the steel consumption end still has the basis for gradual recovery [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3090 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 86,672 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 1.655469 million lots, down 74,279 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3240 yuan/ton, with no change, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3286 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 120,567 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 1.217174 million lots, down 46,346 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy View - Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand decline and continuous inventory reduction, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, unable to effectively absorb production, and inventory continues to increase counter - seasonally [2]. - Affected by the Fed's hawkish remarks, market sentiment declined, and the consumption market cooled down in the short term. But in the long run, the easing expectation remains unchanged, and steel consumption is expected to gradually recover [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 792.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.44% (+3.50), and the open interest changed by - 10,108 lots to 471,300 lots. The weighted open interest was 908,000 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 53.55 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.33% [4]. Strategy View - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded significantly, with increases in both Australian and Brazilian shipments. On the demand side, the average daily pig iron output was 236,880 tons, up 2,660 tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly [5]. - High inventory still suppresses the price, but the short - term increase in pig iron output supports the iron ore demand. In the macro - vacuum period, the market is more likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On November 18, affected by the weakening external market sentiment, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) fell 1.93% to close at 5680 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot market price was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 190 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) fell 1.65% to close at 5474 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot market price was 5500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 26 yuan/ton [7]. Strategy View - In the past week, the black sector continued to decline and fluctuate. As the time approaches December, the macro - expectations are expected to have a positive impact on sentiment and prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point [8]. - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal and lack a major contradiction. If the commodity sentiment recovers and the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore segment. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes: The main contract (SI2601) of industrial silicon closed at 8980 yuan/ton, down 1.10% (-100). The weighted open - interest changed by - 451 lots to 400,728 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9350 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis was 370 yuan/ton [11]. - Strategy View: The supply - side contraction trend is emerging. The demand side shows a decline in polysilicon production and a possible reduction in industrial silicon procurement demand due to the planned production cuts in the organic silicon industry. Industrial silicon may face a situation of "both supply and demand being weak". The cost side provides support, and in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. Polysilicon - Market Quotes: The main contract (PS2601) of polysilicon closed at 52,210 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (-445). The weighted open - interest changed by +2239 lots to 236,480 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, and the basis was 90 yuan/ton [14]. - Strategy View: Polysilicon is still caught between reality and expectations. The production in November decreased, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The market is still highly volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback in the industrial chain [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Quotes: The main contract of glass closed at 1017 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.17% (-12). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 0.18%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 5546 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 32,223 lots [17]. - Strategy View: The supply contraction is limited, and the demand is weak. The enterprise inventory is high, and the spot price is under pressure. Although there is cost support and positive policy expectations, the current supply - demand imbalance and the decline in the futures market intensify the downward pressure on prices, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1214 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.38% (-17). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 858 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 16,055 lots [19]. - Strategy View: The soda ash industry supply is still at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand is mediocre. Some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in plant operation and downstream procurement rhythm [20].

农产品板块，白糖、生猪跌超1%，红枣涨超1% 智通财经：瑞银投资银行中国股票策略研究主管王宗豪在2026年展望报告中指出，预计中国股市将迎来又一个丰年，因包括创新领域发展等许多有利的驱动 因素将继续支撑市场。MSCI中国指数明年末目标位为100，较当前有14%的上涨空间。 智通财经：下任美联储主席的热门人选、现任美联储理事沃勒周一表示，支持在12月的政策会议上再次降息。他称，他越来越担心劳动力市场及招聘活动急 剧放缓。他表示，"劳动力市场依旧疲软，且已接近增长失速的临界水平"，同时剔除关税影响后的通胀 "已相对接近" 美联储2%的目标水平。 | | 化工 | | | 黑色金属 | | | 有色金属 | | | 油脂油料 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 橡胶 rum | | 20号胶 nrm | 螺纹钢 rbm | | 铁矿石 im | 氧化铝 aom 铝合金 adm | | 碳酸锂 lcm | ə qalında qal | 豆二 bm | | 15295.00 0.33% | | 12345.00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various black commodities, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, suggesting that most of these commodities will show a narrow - range consolidation or oscillatory trend in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar market showed obvious gains. The spot price rose, and the inventory decreased. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the cost has strong support for the low - valued rebar price. It is expected to continue narrow - range consolidation [1] - **Iron Ore**: The futures price increased. The supply from Australia and Brazil rebounded, and the demand and inventory both increased. In the short term, the price will oscillate [1] - **Coking Coal**: The futures price went up. The supply side has tight inventory in some areas, and the demand side has a certain replenishment demand. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [1] - **Coke**: The futures price rose. After the fourth price increase, the profit of coke enterprises recovered, and the demand from steel mills increased. However, the terminal finished product market is weak, so it is expected to oscillate widely [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The futures price oscillated strongly. The cost support is strong, and the supply is decreasing while the demand is weak. It will maintain an oscillatory pattern [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price oscillated strongly. The production decreased, the cost is relatively firm, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be supported and oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production changes in the main production areas [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) are provided, along with their latest values and环比 changes [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) is presented, including their latest values and环比 changes [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14] - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][18][20][21][23] - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts show the inter - period contract spreads (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 10) for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][32][33][34][37][38] - **3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts present the inter - variety contract spreads (such as main contract coil - rebar spread, main contract rebar - iron ore ratio) for different commodities [42][43][44][45] - **3.3.5 Rebar Profit**: Charts show the rebar main contract disk profit, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][50][51] 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications in the black commodity research field [53][54]