煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《永泰能源（600157.SH）：煤炭 主业以量补价，煤电协同稳步推 进》，2025.4.29 2.《煤炭周报：宏观预期强化，重 视板块底部布局》，2025.4.27 3.《煤炭周报：煤价震荡寻底，关 注板块红利属性》，2025.4.20 4.《煤炭行业月报：3 月进口同比转 负 ， 静 待 后 续 需 求 改 善 》， 2025.4.18 5.《煤炭周报：煤价底部企稳，回 购增持彰显板块价值》，2025.4.12 煤炭周报: 板块业绩有望筑底， 寻找相对确定性机会 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 煤炭开采 2025 年 05 月 11 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 25Q1 业 ...

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《永泰能源（600157.SH）：煤炭 主业以量补价，煤电协同稳步推 进》，2025.4.29 2.《煤炭周报：宏观预期强化，重 视板块底部布局》，2025.4.27 3.《煤炭周报：煤价震荡寻底，关 注板块红利属性》，2025.4.20 4.《煤炭行业月报：3 月进口同比转 负 ， 静 待 后 续 需 求 改 善 》， 2025.4.18 5.《煤炭周报：煤价底部企稳，回 购增持彰显板块价值》，2025.4.12 煤炭开采 2025 年 05 月 11 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 25Q1 业绩同环比下滑，寻找相对确定性投资机会。据 CCTD 中国煤炭市场网， 2024 年煤炭全行业实现 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 港口库存增加，煤价震荡运行 2025 年 05 月 11 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（5 月 5 日至 5 月 9 日）港口动力煤现货价环比下跌，报收 630 元 /吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 204.23 万吨，环比上周增加 2.21 万吨，增幅 1.10%。矿山产地煤矿正常供应，港口供给略有回升。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量174.40万吨，环比上周减少28.60 万吨，减幅 14.09%；日均锚地船舶共 43 艘，环比上周减少 39 艘，降 幅 47.49%。库存端，环渤海四港区库存端 3305.10 万吨，环比上周增加 99.07 万吨，增幅 3.19%。港口本周日均调出量环比下降，受近期水电 补位较好影响。库存端略有增加，同比仍处高位，叠加下游需求偏弱影 响，煤价震荡运行。 我们分析认为：煤炭价格目前主要受库存高位影响、需求刚需为主以及 汛期水电稳增影响导致上涨动能有限，但伴随五一节后逐步进入迎峰 度夏旺季期，煤价或有进一步上行可能。 估值与建议： 仍旧关注 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Chitianhua Co., Ltd. reported a challenging financial year for 2024, with a net loss attributed to various operational factors, despite some growth in revenue from its chemical and medical service segments [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of CNY 238,006.12 million in 2024, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of CNY -8,669.35 million [1][19]. - The chemical segment generated revenue of CNY 226,020.86 million, contributing a net profit of CNY 13,086.61 million, while the medical services segment reported a revenue of CNY 10,430.55 million with a net loss of CNY -12,867.21 million [1][3]. - The coal segment saw an increase in production and sales, with a slight rise in prices compared to the previous year [1]. Asset and Liability Overview - As of December 31, 2024, total assets amounted to CNY 483,556.81 million, reflecting a 2.58% increase from the beginning of the year [2][20]. - The company's debt ratio rose to 47.37%, an increase of 3.57% from the previous year [2]. Production and Sales Data - The company sold 66.11 million tons of urea, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%, and 32.81 million tons of methanol, up 46.16% [2][29]. - The production of synthetic ammonia, methanol, and urea increased by 7.06%, 42.36%, and 7.98% respectively compared to the previous year [3][29]. Future Outlook - For 2025, the company plans to produce 55.80 million tons of urea and 30 million tons of methanol, with a projected total revenue of CNY 217,830.13 million and a net loss of CNY -7,118.09 million [9][33]. - The company anticipates challenges due to market fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly for urea and methanol, which are influenced by international and domestic conditions [34].

2025 年 05 月 09 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 煤炭/煤炭开采 兰花科创（600123.SH） Q1 价跌致煤炭及煤化工盈利走弱，关注煤炭成长性 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 Q1 价跌致煤炭及煤化工盈利走弱，关注煤炭成长性，维持"买入"评级 公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 一季报，2024 年实现营收 117 亿元，同比-12%，归 母净利润 7.2 亿元，同比-65.8%，扣非归母净利润 7 亿元，同比-66.8%；其中 2024Q4 实现营收 32.8 亿元，环比+11.4%，归母净利润 0.1 亿元，环比-93%， 扣非归母净利润-0.1 亿元，环比-104.3%。2025Q1 实现营收 21.9 亿元，同比-3.1%， 归母净利润 0.3 亿元，同比-75.3%，扣非归母净利润 0.3 亿元，同比-75.6%。考 虑到煤炭及煤化工产品价格下滑，我们下调 2025-2026 年盈利预测并新增 2027 年盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 3.1/4.6/5.6 亿元（2025-2026 年前值 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the peak in Q4 2021, and the market is well aware of the price decline. The industry is at a critical stage of price bottoming, and the report emphasizes the importance of understanding the industry's fundamental attributes and maintaining confidence [7][63] - Key recommendations include major coal enterprises such as China Shenhua (H+A) and China Coal Energy (H+A), as well as companies showing signs of recovery like Qinfa [8][64] Summary by Sections Cash King - Since the supply-side reform in 2016, the historical burden on coal companies has significantly decreased. Despite the continuous decline in coal prices since early 2024, some companies have cash balances (cash and cash equivalents + trading financial assets) far exceeding their interest-bearing debts. As of Q1 2025, the top five companies with the highest cash balances are China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Jinkong Coal, China Coal Energy, and Lu'an Environmental Energy [1][17] Low Debt - As of Q1 2025, the asset-liability ratio for large coal enterprises is 60.3%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Most sampled coal companies have asset-liability ratios lower than the industry average. The companies with the lowest asset-liability ratios are China Shenhua, Jinkong Coal, Electric Power Investment Energy, Yitai B, and Shanghai Energy [20][21] Strong Foundation - Special reserves are funds set aside by coal companies for safety production and maintaining simple reproduction. The top five companies with the highest net increase in special reserves from the end of 2023 to Q1 2025 are China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Yitai B, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Gansu Energy [25][31] High Potential - Considering the cyclical nature of coal prices, coal companies may enhance cost control to ensure steady improvement in profitability. The report evaluates potential profit release using the ratio of operating cash flow minus net profit, depreciation, and financial expenses to net profit. The companies with the highest potential for profit release are Haohua Energy, Yitai B, Huabei Mining, China Coal Energy, and Shanmei International [2][51] Dividend King - The top five companies in terms of cumulative cash dividends over the past three years are China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Yunkang Energy, China Coal Energy, and Lu'an Environmental Energy. The report highlights the high dividend attributes of coal companies, driven by reduced historical burdens and a cautious approach to reinvesting in traditional businesses [3][55]

Macro Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve maintains its current interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%, indicating a cautious approach amid rising unemployment and inflation risks [6][8] - The Fed's policy reflects a dual challenge from tariffs and potential stagflation, with a possible interest rate cut anticipated in Q3 2025, potentially exceeding 25 basis points [8][9] Financial Policies - A comprehensive financial policy package was introduced to stabilize the market and boost confidence, emphasizing proactive measures to support various sectors including real estate and consumption [12][16] - The People's Bank of China announced a 50 basis point reduction in reserve requirements and a 10 basis point cut in policy rates, aimed at enhancing liquidity and supporting economic growth [13][30] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The non-banking financial sector is expected to benefit from improved market conditions, with a focus on structural opportunities as individual investor activity increases [40] - The brokerage and multi-financial sectors are projected to see growth driven by robust trading volumes and improved profitability, particularly for firms with strong retail capabilities [41] Real Estate Sector - The top 100 real estate companies reported a 7.8% year-on-year decline in sales from January to April 2025, with notable performances from specific firms like Jianfa and Huafa [44][46] - The market is expected to stabilize with supportive fiscal and monetary policies, leading to potential recovery in sales and improved demand dynamics [47] Technology and Consumer Trends - The social services industry is witnessing a shift towards health and wellness, with significant growth in sectors like healthy eating and leisure travel, driven by changing consumer preferences [19][20][21] - The integration of AI in marketing and content creation is enhancing consumer engagement across various sectors, including beauty and food services [22] M&A Activity - The introduction of new merger and acquisition policies is fostering a more active market, with a notable increase in disclosed transactions since the implementation of the "merger six guidelines" [35][36] - State-owned enterprises are expected to play a leading role in the upcoming M&A wave, focusing on technology-driven acquisitions and restructuring efforts [37][38]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company benefits from declining coal prices, which positively impacts electricity costs, and continues to repurchase shares to reward investors [3][5] - The company reported a revenue of 28.36 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.56 billion yuan, down 31.1% year-on-year [3][4] - The company is expected to see a significant recovery in net profit in 2026 and 2027, with projections of 904 million yuan and 1.48 billion yuan respectively, indicating a growth of 118.6% and 63.4% year-on-year [3][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a coal production and sales volume of 13.68 million tons, an increase of 5.5% and 5.3% year-on-year respectively [4] - The average coal price in 2024 was 669.5 yuan per ton, down 23.3% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 364.8 yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year [4] - The company's electricity generation in 2024 was 41.3 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [4] Growth Potential - The Haizetang coal mine is expected to enhance coal production capacity, with plans for trial production in mid-2026 and full production in 2027, targeting an output of 10 million tons [5] - The company is actively advancing its energy storage projects, particularly in the all-vanadium flow battery sector [5] - A share repurchase plan for 2025 is being formulated, with a commitment to repurchase at least 300 million yuan worth of shares [5]

Group 1 - Nearly 70% of A-share companies have announced cash dividend plans, with over 3,600 companies disclosing their annual reports and dividend proposals, totaling more than 1.6 trillion yuan in proposed cash dividends [1] - The leading companies in this dividend wave include major state-owned enterprises and industry leaders, with the top three in total cash dividends being Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (586.64 billion yuan), China Mobile (approximately 499.4 billion yuan), and China Construction Bank (515.02 billion yuan) [1] - Companies like PetroChina, China Shenhua, and Kweichow Moutai also plan to distribute over 10 billion yuan in dividends [1] Group 2 - The trend of regular cash dividends is becoming more evident, with significant improvements in both the scale and coverage of cash dividends among A-share companies, driven by policy guidance [2] - There is a cautionary note regarding the return of "high send and transfer" schemes, as some companies may use these to mask underlying weaknesses in their fundamentals [2]

Group 1 - The company Southgobi Sands LLC (SGS), a wholly-owned subsidiary of SouthGobi Resources Ltd, received an invitation from the Mongolian government to negotiate ownership interests related to its coal mining licenses in Mongolia [1][2] - The Mongolian government aims to implement the National Wealth Fund Law passed in April 2024, which involves determining the government's equity stake in entities holding mining licenses deemed strategically significant [1][2] - SGS is expected to engage in ongoing discussions with the Mongolian government's authorized representative, with the goal of reaching a constructive understanding and agreement [2] Group 2 - The company's legal advisors indicated that the Mongolian government has the right to participate in exploration and/or mining of strategically significant minerals through equity arrangements with license holders [2] - Several other license holders of strategically significant minerals have already engaged in similar negotiations with the Mongolian government [2] - The company will continue to monitor developments regarding the scope of strategically significant minerals and their potential impact on its operations while seeking to protect its legal rights to the minerals [2]