以下文章来源于财经五月花 ，作者财经五月花 财经五月花 . 《财经》杂志新媒体矩阵成员 · 金融专号，聚焦金融前沿，探知资本真相。 这是过去一段时间内市场的延续。截至5月9日收盘，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率报7.2461、 7.2378。5月5日，离岸人民币兑美元更是升破7.2，创近半年新高。截至5月5日，港元连续第二个交 易日触及其允许交易区间的强端，盘中一度升至区间上限7.75。 与往常不同，投资者在当前危机时卖出了美元和美债，这不是流动性危机，美元资产的吸引力和美债的 安全性遭到了市场质疑。 文｜康恺 编辑 ｜ 袁满 又一轮贸易战冲击汇市，但这次却不一样。 七年前，受美国总统特朗普关税政策影响，人民币兑美元汇率曾一路由6.3贬值至7.2，贬值幅度达 14.3%。不过，进入2025年，即便全球经历了特朗普新一轮的关税风暴，人民币等非美货币却逆风升 值。在美元指数下挫和中美经贸谈判开启后，人民币更是携港元上涨。 5 月 12 日 ， 在 岸 人 民 币 兑 美 元 汇 率 早 盘 高 开 逾 200 点 ， 而 后 维 持 区 间 震 荡 ， 于 当 日 11 时 左 右 报 7.2295。离岸人民币兑美元 ...

北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）5月12日，据新华社消息，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布。中国和美国认识到双边经贸关系对两国和全球经济的重要 性；认识到可持续的、长期的、互利的双边经贸关系的重要性；鉴于双方近期的讨论，相信持续的协商有助于解决双方在经贸领域关切的问题；本着相互开 放、持续沟通、合作和相互尊重的精神，继续推进相关工作。 正如人民银行日前发布的《2025年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》强调，"坚持以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度， 坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置，坚决防范 汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定"。 展望后市，前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙指出，在关税战取得突破性进展后，人民币汇率有望在当前区间延续升值走势，这也反映出国际资本对于人民 币资产的信心。 商务部新闻发言人就此发表谈话表示，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, maintain a cautious long position for the four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in A - shares; maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude for commodities and government bonds. The ranking is: stock index > government bonds > commodities. Among commodities, the ranking is: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, far exceeding expectations, and the trade surplus was 96.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 34%. China and the US will hold trade talks, and the central bank has unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 10BP, which will boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. Internationally, the US economic activities are still expanding steadily, the US - UK has reached a limited trade agreement, and the US - China trade negotiation has made progress. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the dollar rebounds in the short term, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - On May 5th, the US President announced to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US and will announce tariff measures on pharmaceutical products in the next two weeks. On May 6th, the US March trade deficit widened to a record 140.5 billion US dollars, and the US refused to cancel some tariffs on Japan. On May 7th, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US and the EU are in trade negotiations. On May 8th, the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. On May 9th, the US President said that the US and China will conduct substantial trade negotiations this weekend, and the current 145% tariff on China will be lowered [3][4][5][6][10] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From May 12th to May 16th, there will be a series of industrial data releases, including electrolytic aluminum inventory, iron ore shipping and arrival volume, etc., as well as important economic data such as the US CPI, PPI, and GDP data of various countries [11] 3.3 Global Asset Price Trends - Stock markets: Different stock indices in various countries have different price trends and changes. Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries have different fluctuations. Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy have different changes. Exchange rate markets: Exchange rates of major currencies have different degrees of fluctuations [12] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Includes data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal inventories, and iron ore prices. Mid - stream: Covers data on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and inventory, and chemical product prices and inventory. Downstream: Involves data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales, and agricultural product prices [13][42][71] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: Shown by the US Treasury yield curve. Domestic liquidity: Reflected by central bank open - market operations, inter - bank lending rates, and bond yields [82][84] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From May 13th to May 16th, there are important economic data releases in the EU, the US, Germany, Japan, etc., including CPI, PPI, GDP, and other data [105]

Group 1: Financial Support for Industry Development - The document outlines support for technology innovation industries, encouraging financial institutions to innovate bill discount products and increase financing support for eligible enterprises in Nansha [1] - It emphasizes support for high-end manufacturing industries, including the issuance of technology innovation bonds and exploring mixed financing models [1][2] - The document highlights the importance of supporting digital industries by establishing data centers and enhancing cooperation with digital asset trading platforms [2] Group 2: Financial Services for Social and Economic Development - It promotes the facilitation of cross-border payment services, including expanding the pilot scope for Hong Kong and Macau residents to open accounts [3] - The document supports cross-border credit financing by encouraging cooperation among credit institutions in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau region [3] - It aims to enhance the convenience of international professionals' practice by promoting mutual recognition of professional qualifications [3] Group 3: Development of Specialized Financial Services - The document encourages the innovation of green financial services, including the exploration of electricity futures and supporting enterprises in sustainable information disclosure [4] - It outlines the development of digital financial services, supporting the application of generative AI in finance and establishing a research think tank for digital finance [4][5] - The document supports the construction of a cross-border asset management center in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [5] Group 4: International Leasing and Factoring Business - It supports the exploration of international factoring business by qualified commercial factoring companies and encourages the use of foreign exchange income for domestic leasing [6] - The document promotes the development of a competitive leasing industry by providing policy support for aircraft, ships, and large equipment leasing [6]

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP in Q1 2025 grew by 5.4% year-on-year, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year [1] - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 50.5% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.4%, down from 50.8% in the previous month [1] - In April 2025, the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, down from 51.2% in the previous month; the Caixin services business activity index was 50.7%, down from 51.9% in the previous month [1] - In March 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.5%, 1.6%, and 7.0% respectively [1] - In April 2025, CPI was down 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI was down 2.7% year - on - year [1] - In April 2025, exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - The China - US high - level economic and trade talks on May 10 - 11 in Geneva were productive, and a consultation mechanism will be established [2] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage, and boosting consumption is the key to expanding domestic demand [2] - In April 2025, CPI turned from a 0.4% decline in the previous month to a 0.1% increase month - on - month, and core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month [3] 2.2 Metals - Gold prices are volatile, and many wealth management companies have launched gold - linked wealth management products [5] - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecasts for Q2 and Q3 2025 to $9330/ton and $9150/ton respectively [6] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - China will carry out a special campaign to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals [7] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Iraq plans to export 3.2 million barrels of crude oil per day in June [9] - Oman is considering selling an $8 billion stake in a natural gas field [9] 2.5 Agricultural Products - On May 9, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.1% compared to April 30 [10] - In April 2025, China's soybean imports increased by 72.59% month - on - month [10] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On May 9, the central bank conducted 77 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 77 billion yuan [12] - This week, 836.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 125 billion yuan of MLF will mature [12] 3.2 Key News - The China - US high - level economic and trade talks achieved important consensus and substantial progress [13] - The State Council called for in - depth planning of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and support for free trade zones [15] - China's goods trade imports and exports in the first four months increased by 2.4% year - on - year [16] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - Treasury bond futures mostly fell slightly, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose 0.4bp [22] - The money market funds were loose, and the repo rates of deposit - type institutions decreased [22] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2461 on May 12, down 106 points from the previous trading day [27] - In Q1 2025, China's current account surplus was $165.6 billion [28] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed Income said that the bond market has several new trends this year [29] - CITIC Securities believes that the credit spread is unlikely to decline trendily in May [29] 4. Stock Market Key News - This week, 28 A - share stocks will face restricted - share unlocking, with a total market value of 18.63 billion yuan [33] - Since May, many fund companies have conducted intensive research on listed companies [33] - Some private equity firms believe that the stage of the greatest impact of tariffs has passed [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Commodities may continue to move in a volatile manner with differentiated trends among varieties. Favorable factors include China's introduction of a package of policy measures to alleviate short - term economic downward pressure and improve domestic demand, and the China - US high - level economic and trade negotiations easing market concerns. Unfavorable factors are the Fed's possible continued wait - and - see stance, complex overseas geopolitical factors, and increased risks of crude oil production increase due to internal disagreements within OPEC+ [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections PART ONE: Main Views - **Commodities Outlook**: The start of high - level economic and trade negotiations between China and the US can ease market concerns, but the Fed's new stage of assessing "dual risks", complex overseas geopolitical situations, and OPEC+ internal disagreements pose challenges to the overall commodity trend [3]. - **Influencing Factors and Logic**: This week, domestic commodities continued to fluctuate, with industrial products oscillating and agricultural products weakening slightly. Overseas, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate, and the US economy showed a "strong service, weak manufacturing" structure with a record - high trade deficit. Domestically, a package of financial policies was introduced to support the economy, and the domestic consumer market remained resilient during the May Day holiday [4]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **Fed Policy**: On May 7, the Fed announced to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, with unchanged balance - sheet reduction. The Fed may maintain a wait - and - see stance in the short term as the key to US economic growth and inflation lies in tariff policies [4][8]. - **Economic Data**: The US April ISM services PMI was 51.6, while the manufacturing PMI contracted for two consecutive months to 48.7. In March 2025, the US trade deficit was $140.5 billion, a 14.0% month - on - month increase, highlighting the structural contradictions in US trade policies [4][11][12]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Consumer Market**: During the 2025 May Day holiday, the national consumer market was prosperous, with the sales of key retail and catering enterprises increasing by 6.3% year - on - year. Domestic consumption, especially service consumption, remained resilient [4][17]. - **Monetary Policy**: On May 7, a package of macro - monetary policies was announced, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts. These policies are expected to alleviate short - term economic downward pressure and support long - term economic transformation. The April domestic manufacturing PMI fell back to the contraction range due to external demand contraction [4][20]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: As of May 9, PTA factory, polyester factory, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates were 76%, 89%, and 64% respectively. The 30 - day moving average of vehicle manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales showed certain growth rates [29][35]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: As of May 9, the average wholesale prices of 28 key - monitored vegetables, pork, and the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index showed certain trends [37].

Core Viewpoint - The press conference held by the State Council's Information Office emphasized a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing market expectations and addressing the complex domestic and international economic landscape [1] Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank announced ten monetary policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, expected to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] - Structural adjustments included a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various special tool interest rates to 1.5% and an increase in the re-lending quota for technological innovation by 300 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [2] Support for Key Sectors - The policy aims to enhance support for agriculture and small enterprises by increasing the re-lending quota by 300 billion yuan, coupled with interest rate reductions to stimulate demand [3] - The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, lowering the first home loan rate from 2.85% to 2.6%, which is expected to stabilize the real estate market [3] Market Impact - The measures are expected to optimize liquidity and funding costs, enhancing financial support for market stability and reducing the debt burden for enterprises and residents [4] - The emphasis on "counter-cyclical adjustment" and "moderately loose monetary policy" is likely to boost market confidence and stabilize expectations for economic recovery [4][5] Structural Support and Capital Market - The targeted support for sectors such as technological innovation and inclusive finance is anticipated to create market hotspots and improve confidence in the capital market [5] - The capital market is expected to maintain active trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing around 3300 points, potentially attracting new capital into the market [6]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 金融政策率先启动——政策周观察第 29 期 4 月政治局会议后，货币金融政策率先启动。5 月 7 日，央行、证监会、金融 监管总局主要负责人出席国新办新闻发布会，介绍一揽子金融政策。参考点评 《为"确定性"护航——5 月 7 日"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"学习 理解》。 1、央行潘行长公布了十项货币政策措施：①降低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点； ②阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率从目前的 5%调降为 0%；③下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点；④下调结构货性货币政策工具利率 0.25 个百分点；⑤降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点；⑥增加 3000 亿元 科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度；⑦设立 5000 亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"； ⑧增加支农支小再贷款额度 3000 亿元；⑨将证券基金保险公司互换便利和股 票回购增持再贷款的额度合并使用；⑩创设科技创新债券风险分担工具。 2、国家金融监督管理总局李局长公布了八项政策措施：①加快出台与房地产 发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度；②进一步扩大保险资金长期投资试点范 围；③进一步调降保险公司股票投资 ...

Market News - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions starting May 15, with a 5 percentage point reduction for auto finance and leasing companies [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released an action plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, focusing on optimizing fee structures and enhancing performance evaluation mechanisms [2] - The 2025 World Robot Conference will be held in Beijing from August 8 to August 12, inviting leading domestic companies and international firms like Tesla [2] Sector Updates Real Estate - Major cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have announced reductions in housing provident fund loan rates [6] Automotive - The automotive industry is experiencing reduced competitive pressure and a market recovery, with fewer price cuts on vehicles due to enhanced promotional subsidies for scrapping old cars [7] Company News - Huawei introduced the "Harmony Computer" powered by the Harmony operating system, marking a significant breakthrough in the PC sector with over 2,700 core patents [9] - Xiaomi has rebranded its driving assistance features, changing "Xiaomi Intelligent Driving" to "Xiaomi Assisted Driving" [9] - Alibaba has begun reducing its stakes in two brokerage firms, having sold shares in China International Capital Corporation and Huatai Securities [10] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. plans to raise at least $4 billion through a Hong Kong IPO, potentially reaching $5.3 billion with an overallotment option [10] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation reported Q1 revenue of 16.301 billion yuan, a 29.44% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 1.356 billion yuan, up 166.5% [10] Stock Unlocking - A total of 28 companies will have their locked shares unlocked this week, amounting to 1.066 billion shares with a total market value of 18.63 billion yuan [13] - The highest unlocking values are from Guojin Securities (4.166 billion yuan), Qiangrui Technology (3.243 billion yuan), and Jiangsu Huachen (2.644 billion yuan) [14] New Stock Calendar - No new stock subscriptions are available in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets this week, but Tian Gong Co., Ltd. will be listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange on May 13 [17] Economic Insights - Dongwu Securities suggests that A-shares currently offer attractive value from a global liquidity perspective, especially as non-US assets have been under pressure [19] - Zhongtai Securities indicates that after the Q1 earnings reports, the market may focus on sectors with growth potential, particularly in emerging growth areas [20]

"中国人民银行将统筹金融开放与安全，探索拓展央行宏观审慎和金融稳定的功能，坚定维护中国的汇 市、债市、股市等金融市场平稳运行。"5月7日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在国新办举行的新闻发布会 上表示，中国人民银行坚定支持汇金公司在必要时加大力度增持股票市场指数基金，并向其提供充足的 再贷款支持，坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。 潘功胜表示，为贯彻中共中央政治局会议精神，进一步实施好适度宽松的货币政策，人民银行将加大宏 观调控强度，推出一揽子货币政策措施，主要有三大类（数量型政策，价格型政策，结构型政策）共十 项措施。 第一，降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。 第二，完善存款准备金制度，阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率从目前的5%调降 为0%。 记者统计发现，截至5月7日18时，央行已在同日连发8条公告，包括下调政策利率、下调金融机构存款 准备金率、合并两项资本市场支持工具额度、下调个人住房公积金贷款利率、下调再贷款利率、增加支 农支小再贷款额度3000亿元、增加科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度3000亿元等内容，以及央行、证监会 联合发布关于支持发行科技创新债券有关事宜的公 ...