Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Steel Industry - Current steel prices are affected by the rebound of coking coal. Steel mills are reducing production, hot-rolled coil inventory is increasing, and apparent demand is declining. Overall demand is expected to remain weak due to off - season demand and tariff - affected exports. Steel prices may fluctuate at low levels. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with attention to short - selling opportunities around 3000 for the October contract of rebar and 3150 for the October contract of hot - rolled coil [1]. Iron Ore Industry - This week, global iron ore shipments increased significantly, demand remained relatively stable, and the inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. In the future, terminal demand for finished products may weaken, but iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient. Iron ore supply pressure will increase. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate in the range of 700 - 745 [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - Coking coal futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend last week, with a divergence between futures and spot prices. The spot market of coking coal was weak, and the market was still in a state of oversupply. Coke futures also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and the third round of price cuts for coke was implemented on June 6. The supply - demand pattern of coke was still loose in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the 2509 contracts of both coking coal and coke and short after the rebound [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply increased this week, mainly due to the resumption of production in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Demand remained relatively stable, and the supply - demand contradiction began to emerge as supply increased. For ferromanganese, supply increased slightly this week, and supply pressure reappeared under weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see for both, with attention to the price changes of coal [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all showed small increases. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3100 to 3120 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar rose from 2952 to 2975 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2880 yuan/ton, while slab prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits of hot - rolled coil in different regions increased, and profits of rebar also showed different degrees of increase [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4, a decrease of 0.1%. Rebar production decreased by 7.0 to 218.5, a decrease of 3.1%; hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.2 to 328.8, an increase of 2.9%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, rebar inventory decreased, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 10.4, an increase of 4.9%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 to 882.2, a decrease of 3.5%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.7 to 229.0, a decrease of 7.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The basis of different iron ore varieties for the 09 contract decreased significantly. For example, the basis of PB powder for the 09 contract decreased from 122.4 to 63.6, a decrease of 48.0%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly [3]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 385.2 to 2536.5, an increase of 17.9%. The monthly national import volume increased by 917.5 to 10313.8, an increase of 9.8%. The weekly average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0%. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 271.1 to 7258.3, a decrease of 3.6% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 39.9 to 13826.69, a decrease of 0.3%. The inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 to 8690.2, a decrease of 0.7% [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Price and Spread - For coking coal, the price of the 09 contract rose by 22 to 779, an increase of 2.8%, and the price of the 01 contract rose by 20 to 793, an increase of 2.5%. For coke, the price of the 09 contract rose by 15 to 1357, an increase of 0.6%, and the price of the 01 contract rose by 10 to 1368, an increase of 0.7% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly output of coke decreased slightly, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a decrease of 0.4%. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0% [5]. Inventory - The inventory of coke in all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 to 127.0, an increase of 14.04%, and the inventory of coke in 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 to 645.8, a decrease of 1.4% [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Price and Spread - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 92 to 5104, a decrease of 1.8%, and the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 56 to 5538, an increase of 1.0% [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5631.0. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 to - 329.0, a decrease of 17.9% [7]. Supply and Demand - The weekly output of ferrosilicon increased by 1.2 to 9.7, an increase of 14.6%. The weekly output of ferromanganese increased slightly. The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese remained relatively stable [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.7 to 68.7, a decrease of 9.8%, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 to 18.7, an increase of 0.34% [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - For steel, the spot price fluctuates while the futures price rebounds from the low. Supply sees a decline in blast furnace and electric furnace production. Inventory shows a slowdown in building material destocking and an accumulation of plate stock. Demand weakens for both building materials and plates. Profits remain high for blast furnaces but narrow for electric furnaces. The basis changes little, and there are reverse arbitrage opportunities. Overall, the supply - demand structure of steel will weaken next week, and the black market is expected to return to a weak downward state. The strategy is to maintain a bearish view and take partial profits when new lows are reached [6]. - For iron ore, the ore price fluctuates with the futures price rebounding from the low. Supply increases in Australian and Brazilian shipments and arrivals. Demand drops as blast furnace production declines. Inventory decreases slightly at ports and among downstream users. Shipping prices rise. The spread on the futures market narrows, and the coke - ore ratio increases. The supply improves while the demand slows down, and the industry fundamentals are still weak. Next week, it may be dragged down by the weakening of steel products and return to a downward trend. The strategy is to maintain a short - selling view, add short positions on rebounds, and hold them in the medium - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The futures price of rebar rebounds after hitting a new low this year, with the 10 - contract rising 14 to 2975. The spot price fluctuates, with rebar in East China at 3120 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week [11]. 3.1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production: The operating rate of 247 blast furnaces is 83.56%, down 0.31 percentage points week - on - week and up 2.06 percentage points year - on - year. The iron - making capacity utilization rate is 90.65%, down 0.04 percentage points week - on - week and up 2.51 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot - metal output is 241.8 tons, down 0.11 tons week - on - week and up 6.05 tons year - on - year [14]. - Electric furnace production: The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 76.69%, down 1.09 percentage points week - on - week and up 5.67 percentage points year - on - year. Short - process steel production shows signs of active production cuts due to difficulties in scrap collection and weak demand [20]. - Product output: Rebar production decreases by 7.05 tons, mainly due to rolling - line maintenance and the diversion of hot - metal to profiles and billets. Hot - rolled coil production increases by 9.1 tons to 328.75 tons, mainly in East and North China [23]. 3.1.3 Demand - Building materials: From May 28 to June 3, the national cement outbound volume is 315.7 tons, down 9.8% week - on - week and 25.4% year - on - year. The direct supply of infrastructure cement is 173 tons, down 7.0% week - on - week and 6.5% year - on - year. The demand drops significantly due to the college entrance examination and rainy weather [26]. - Plates: In May 2025, the monthly average working hours of major construction machinery products are 84.5 hours, down 3.86% year - on - year and 6.25% month - on - month. The monthly start - up rate is 59.5%, down 5.01 percentage points year - on - year and 2.45 percentage points month - on - month. The internal and external demand of the manufacturing industry weakens [29]. 3.1.4 Profit - Blast furnace: The profitability rate of steel mills is 58.87%, flat week - on - week and up 6.06 percentage points year - on - year. Blast furnace profits are relatively high due to coke price concessions [34]. - Electric furnace: The overall profitability of independent electric arc furnace steel mills continues to decline. The proportion of slightly profitable steel mills decreases by 4.13% week - on - week, and the proportion of loss - making steel mills increases by 8.26% week - on - week. Electric furnaces are basically in the red during peak - power periods, and the short - process loss ratio is high [34]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Rebar: Mill inventory decreases by 1.6 tons, and social inventory decreases by 8.97 tons. The destocking speed slows down, in line with the off - season characteristics [38]. - Hot - rolled coil: Mill inventory increases by 1.33 tons, mainly in North China. Total inventory increases by 6.5 tons, corresponding to increased production and weakening demand [42]. 3.1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar 10 - contract is 165, narrowing 4 from last week. It is recommended to take profits on previous positive - arbitrage positions around 100 and continue to pay attention to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [45]. 3.1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread is 4, with the inversion situation reversing completely compared to last week. The near - term price is expected to fall due to the off - season, and the far - term price also faces callback risks, so the far - term price inversion cannot last [49]. 3.1.8 Inter - product Spread - The futures spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 117, widening 2 from last week. The spot spread is 90, widening 60 from last week. The spread is at a neutral level, and there is no obvious driving force for further narrowing, so no operation is recommended [52]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The futures price of iron ore rebounds from the low, with the 09 - contract rising 5.5 to 707.5. The spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rises 1 to 733 yuan/ton. Market sentiment recovers slightly, and downstream users replenish stocks normally [57]. 3.2.2 Supply - Global shipments: The current global iron ore shipment volume is 3431 tons, up 242 tons week - on - week. The weekly average in May is 3209.4 tons, basically flat compared to April and up 55 tons compared to May last year [60]. - Australia and Brazil shipments: The weekly average shipment volume from Australia is 1852.36 tons, basically flat compared to April and down 17 tons compared to May last year. The weekly average from Brazil is 793.36 tons, basically flat compared to April and up 69 tons compared to May last year [63]. - Arrivals: The arrival volume at 47 ports is 2597.4 tons, up 253 tons week - on - week. The weekly average in May is 2485.26 tons, basically flat compared to April and down 25 tons compared to May last year [66]. 3.2.3 Demand - Rigid demand: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills is 241.8 tons per day, down 0.11 tons per day week - on - week, up 13.36 tons per day compared to the beginning of the year, and up 6.05 tons per day year - on - year [69]. - Speculative demand: The daily average port transaction volume is 90 tons, down 2.8 tons week - on - week. Due to continuous hot - metal production cuts and weakening demand, the downstream purchasing intensity is slow [72]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Port inventory: The inventory at 47 ports is 14400.31 tons, down 69 tons week - on - week, down 1210 tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 1137 tons lower than the same period last year [75]. - Downstream inventory: The total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills is 2532.11 tons, down 66.98 tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption is 115.57 tons, down 0.02 tons from the previous period [78]. 3.2.5 Shipping - The freight from Western Australia to China is 10.5 dollars/ton, up 1.6 dollars/ton week - on - week. The freight from Brazil to China is 24.6 dollars/ton, up 2.6 dollars/ton week - on - week [81]. 3.2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore is 36, widening 0.5 from last week, with little change overall. The basis of the 09 - contract is at a neutral - low level, narrowing 12 last week [83]. - The coke - ore ratio is 1.92, and the rebar - ore ratio is 4.21. The coke - ore ratio widens, and the rebar - ore ratio is basically flat. Considering the overall decline of the black - series market, the spread trading fluidity is not high [86].

Market Review - Iron ore futures for the 2509 contract fell by 0.56%, closing at 704 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - From June 2 to June 8, 2025, global iron ore shipments totaled 35.104 million tons, an increase of 794,000 tons week-on-week. Shipments from Australia and Brazil amounted to 29.194 million tons, up by 506,000 tons. Australian shipments reached 21.699 million tons, increasing by 2.493 million tons, with shipments to China at 18.92 million tons, up by 3.922 million tons. Brazilian shipments totaled 7.496 million tons, down by 1.987 million tons [2] - During the same period, China's 47 ports received 26.739 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 765,000 tons; 45 ports received 26.093 million tons, up by 728,000 tons; while the six northern ports received 13.836 million tons, down by 1.572 million tons. According to the General Administration of Customs, in the first five months, China imported 486 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 5.2%, with an average import price of 707.2 CNY per ton, down by 16.4% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures noted that with increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, port arrivals have significantly rebounded, indicating an overall improvement in supply. However, iron and steel production has decreased for four consecutive weeks, with a mix of furnace maintenance and restarts leading to a continuous decline in demand. Port inventories are decreasing, and steel mill inventories are slightly down, with shipping volumes continuing to decline. Overall, supply is improving while demand is slowing, indicating a weak fundamental outlook for the industry, with potential for prices to decline further. The strategy suggested is to maintain a short position, increasing short positions on rebounds, and holding positions for the medium term [3] - Galaxy Futures highlighted that iron ore supply remains stable and is entering a seasonal peak, while demand from the steel industry is high but entering a low season. Overall market sentiment is declining, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3]

地区 品种 最新 日变化 周变化 折盘面 最新 日变化 周变化 进口利润 95.65 -0.70 -1.55 纽曼粉 724 3 -11 773.7 92.90 0.55 -0.35 -23.58 PB粉 729 2 -10 771.2 95.50 0.50 -0.40 -5.70 麦克粉 710 2 -10 775.8 91.40 0.50 -0.45 -3.83 金布巴 685 1 -10 773.2 87.50 0.80 -0.35 -4.86 主流 混合粉 663 8 3 786.8 82.60 0.60 -0.45 14.04 超特粉 623 7 0 832.1 79.60 0.60 -0.40 5.63 卡粉 825 0 -5 763.9 105.05 0.80 -1.15 11.31 巴西 巴混 751 2 -9 760.6 97.25 0.60 0.30 -0.27 主流 巴粗IOC6 702 2 -10 769.9 巴粗SSFG 707 2 -10 乌克兰精粉 798 4 -2 885.3 61%印粉 665 1 -10 卡拉拉精粉 803 4 -2 815.5 罗伊山粉 699 2 -10 ...

2025年06月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 7 | | 锌：上方偏承压 | 9 | | 铅：低位运行 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：短期进口减量，长期供需过剩，震荡 | 15 | | 工业硅：情绪见顶，盘面具备下行动能 | 17 | | 多晶硅：现货具备下跌驱动，盘面空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：三轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：事故扰动，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 27 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of iron ore 2509 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the ore price oscillates at a low level [2]. - The iron ore fundamentals are weakly stable. The steel mill production is weak in the off - season, resulting in weak ore demand. Meanwhile, the overseas ore supply is active with an expected end - of - fiscal - year volume rush. The overall supply pressure increases, presenting a situation of strong supply and weak demand. However, the futures price is deeply discounted, and the market sentiment has improved recently, so the downward resistance is large. The ore price is expected to continue the low - level oscillation, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a weak bias. The reference is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and low - level ore price oscillation [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore fundamentals run weakly and stably. The steel mill production in the off - season is weak, leading to weak ore demand and limited positive effects. The overseas ore supply is positive with an expected end - of - fiscal - year volume rush. Although domestic ore production is restricted and the output declines, the overall supply pressure increases. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the ore price is under pressure. But due to the deep discount of the futures price and the improved market sentiment, the downward resistance is large. The ore price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and the performance of finished steel should be observed [3]

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - With the arrival of the rainy season, iron ore demand faces seasonal weakening pressure, and as overseas mines enter the end - of - quarter rush stage, supply may gradually become more abundant. The upward pressure on iron ore prices remains significant. It is recommended to try to short the 2509 contract on rallies and also consider the accumulated put option strategy [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On June 6, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly, opened higher with a small increase and then pulled back, and oscillated in the afternoon. It closed at 707.5 yuan/ton, up 0.86% [7] - The table shows the price, trading volume, and open - interest of steel and iron ore futures main contracts on June 6, including RB2510, HC2510, SS2507, and I2509. For example, I2509 had a closing price of 707.5 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 402,647 lots, an open - interest of 724,169 lots, and a capital inflow of 1.31 billion yuan [5] - The table also presents the open - interest of the top 20 long and short positions in black - series futures on June 6. For I2509, the top 20 long positions had 454,030 lots with an increase of 2,721 lots, and the top 20 short positions had 475,522 lots with an increase of 6,126 lots, with a long - short deviation of - 0.73% [8] 3.1.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On June 6, the main iron ore overseas quotes rose 1 US dollar/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [9] - Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a golden cross, and the green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract has been narrowing for 3 consecutive trading days [9] 3.1.3 Outlook - Supply: The current iron ore arrivals have declined, with the arrivals in the four weeks of May at 9.2269 billion tons, a decrease of 325.4 million tons or 3.42% compared with the four weeks of April. However, considering the continuous increase in recent shipments, the cumulative shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil in the four weeks of May were 10.3982 billion tons, an increase of 526.3 million tons or 5.33% compared with the four weeks of April. With the approaching of the end - of - quarter rush stage for overseas mines, the iron ore supply in June is expected to be more abundant [10] - Demand: The peak of iron ore demand has emerged. The daily average pig - iron output has declined for 3 consecutive weeks. As of the week of May 30, the daily average pig - iron output was 2.4191 million tons, a decrease of 37,300 tons from the peak of 2.4564 million tons in the week of May 9. With the arrival of the rainy season, the downstream demand for construction steel is also under pressure. Considering the recent decline in the overall production profit of steel enterprises, the iron ore demand in June is expected to decline compared with May [11] - Inventory: Port inventory has continued to decline to 1.39 billion tons, mainly affected by the decline in arrivals in May. As supply gradually becomes more abundant, port inventory is expected to increase slightly in June. The available days of steel mill inventory have dropped to 19 days, and steel enterprises still mainly replenish inventory on demand [11] 3.2 Industry News - "World Steel Association Statistical Data 2025" shows that China's crude - steel output in 2024 was 1.005 billion tons, accounting for 53.3% of the global total, with electric - arc furnace steel accounting for 10.2%. Domestic iron ore output (adjusted to the world average grade) was 298 million tons, accounting for 11.8% of the world's total iron ore output [12] - China National Coal Group Corporation pointed out in a recent institutional survey that the current coal market has strong supply and weak demand, with low prices and high inventory. Considering the expected decrease in imports this year and the possible weakening of the substitution effect of hydropower on thermal power, the demand for thermal coal is expected to increase with the arrival of the "peak - summer" season. Currently, the thermal - coal price is approaching the bottom and is expected to stabilize further. For coking coal, the decline in price this year has slowed down compared with the same period last year, with little price change in the first and second quarters. The current coking - coal price of the company is around 1,100 yuan/ton, and the profit has decreased year - on - year. The decline in national raw - coal output in April was mainly due to production restrictions in some coal mines due to continuous price drops and safety and environmental factors in some regions [12] - On June 6, 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation for a term of 3 months (91 days) to maintain the liquidity of the banking system [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore and PB powder, low - grade ore and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot at Qingdao Port and the September contract, the shipping volumes from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volume at major ports, the available days of steel mill iron ore inventory, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, port iron ore inventory and port clearance volume, the tax - free pig - iron cost of sample steel mills, blast - furnace and electric - furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig - iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel - mill inventory of five major steel products [18][19][20]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively stable. Ore terminal consumption is weakly stable. This week, the average daily hot metal output of sample steel mills decreased slightly week - on - week, while the daily consumption of imported ore increased slightly. Both remained at relatively high levels, supporting the ore price. However, due to the weakening of steel mill production in the off - season, ore demand will still decline, and the positive effect is not strong. Meanwhile, the arrival of domestic ports continues to rise, the overseas miners' shipments have increased to the highest level of the year, and there is an expectation of miners' volume - rushing at the end of the fiscal year, so overseas ore supply will remain high. Although domestic mine production has decreased due to inspections, it is not sustainable, and the overall ore supply pressure is still large. In conclusion, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not changed much. Demand remains high but has a weakening expectation, and the positive effect is not strong. On the contrary, miners are active in shipping at the end of the fiscal year, and the supply pressure is large. The fundamentals of the ore will weaken under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the ore price will be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the deep discount of the futures price and the warming of market sentiment. Under the logic of discount repair, the downward resistance is large. In the short term, the positive factors will dominate, and the ore price may fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the change of hot metal [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,826.69, a week - on - week decrease of 39.89, a decrease of 39.89 compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 1,101.07 compared with the same period. 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory was 8,690.18, a week - on - week decrease of 64.15, a decrease of 64.15 compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 528.02 compared with the same period [1]. Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrival volume was 2,536.50, a week - on - week increase of 385.20, an increase of 385.20 compared with last month, and an increase of 280.50 compared with the same period. Global 19 - port iron ore shipment volume was 3,431.00, a week - on - week increase of 242.30, an increase of 242.30 compared with last month, and an increase of 182.30 compared with the same period. Domestic mine production decreased due to inspections, but the decrease was not sustainable [1][2]. Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 241.80, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11, a decrease of 0.11 compared with last month, and an increase of 6.05 compared with the same period. The 45 - port average daily port clearance volume was 313.99, a week - on - week decrease of 12.69, a decrease of 12.69 compared with last month, and an increase of 1.17 compared with the same period. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills was 300.48, a week - on - week increase of 0.80, an increase of 0.80 compared with last month, and an increase of 12.38 compared with the same period. The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions was 95.20, a week - on - week decrease of 1.74, a decrease of 1.74 compared with last month, and a decrease of 2.38 compared with the same period [1].

Report Overview - Report Name: Huajin Futures Black Raw Materials Weekly Report - Report Date: June 6, 2025 - Researcher: Gao Guangqi - Company: Huajin Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For iron ore, the iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level. Although the steel mill's sinter powder inventory is low, the raw material side is expected to have limited room for continuous recovery due to the expected weakening of rigid demand [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply of coking coal is in obvious excess, and there is no continuous rebound momentum for both spot and futures prices. Attention should be paid to the possibility of supply - side reduction [40]. - In the third quarter, it is difficult for the black commodities to have a continuous upward performance [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore Overseas Supply - Australia and Brazil are gradually entering the shipping peak season. The current shipment volume has increased by 124.5 tons to 2,830.62 tons. The shipment volume from non - Australia and Brazil regions has increased significantly, rising by 140.9 tons to about 600.4 tons this week. The arrival volume in the third quarter is expected to be at an average level [4]. Four Major Mines' Shipment - Fortescue's iron ore shipment in FY25Q3 reached 46.1 million tons, a 7% decrease quarter - on - quarter, with a shipment target of 190 - 200 million tons for the 2025 fiscal year. - Vale's iron ore production in 25Q1 was 67.66 million tons, a 4.5% year - on - year decrease, and the annual production target remains at 325 - 335 million tons. - Rio Tinto's iron ore production in 25Q1 was 69.77 million tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease, and the annual shipment target remains at 323 - 338 million tons. - BHP's Pilbara business iron ore production in FY25Q3 was 67.8 million tons, unchanged year - on - year, and the 2025 fiscal year target remains at 282 - 294 million tons [14]. Demand - This week, the iron - water production remained stable at around 241.8 tons, with a decrease of 0.1 tons. It is expected to remain volatile at a high level. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has declined, and the port clearance volume has remained at a high level [19]. Inventory - The sinter powder inventory has continued to decline, and the total port inventory has decreased slightly. This week, the total port inventory decreased by 39.89 tons to 13,826.69 tons. - The steel mill's imported sinter powder inventory decreased by 48.48 tons to 1,162.04 tons this week. Attention should be paid to the dynamic balance of steel mill profits and production changes [24][27]. Spot - Futures Structure - The spot - futures prices have fluctuated widely. It is expected that the black commodities will not have a continuous upward performance in the third quarter [29]. Relationship with Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index has been fluctuating at a low level, with no obvious upward or downward trend this week [36]. Relationship with Non - Mainstream Region Shipment - The non - Australia and Brazil region's shipment volume has increased significantly this week [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal Demand and Coke Supply - The iron - water production is expected to remain volatile at a high level. This week, it remained stable. The third round of coke price reduction of 70 yuan/ton has been implemented, and coke profits have continued to be under pressure [44]. Coking Coal Inventory - The independent coking plant's coking coal inventory decreased by 27.41 tons to 818.92 tons this week, and the steel mill's coking coal inventory decreased by 15.88 tons to 770.91 tons. - The port's imported coking coal inventory increased by 9.93 tons to 131.02 tons this week, and the mine's clean coal inventory reached a new high [47][50]. Coking Coal Term Structure - The supply of coking coal is in obvious excess, and although the futures price has rebounded, it is difficult to see a substantial turning point in the short term [55]. Coke Inventory - The third round of coke price reduction of 70 yuan/ton has been implemented, and the coke inventory available days for steel mills have continued to decline. - This week, the total coke inventory remained stable, and the iron - water production decreased by 0.1 tons to 241.80 tons. The average national coking profit this week was about - 19 yuan/ton [58][63]. Coke Term Structure - Both the coke spot and futures prices have dropped significantly, the basis has narrowed, and the overall structure is at par [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated at the bottom, and market sentiment declined at the phased bottom. The core factors driving market ups and downs in the short term are weak. Overall, the current terminal steel demand has entered a seasonal off - peak season on a month - on - month basis, and funds may trade the weak reality of the terminal. However, the downward space for iron ore prices at the current valuation bottom is small, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3]. - The trading strategy suggests a sideways movement for single - side trading, a long 9/1 inter - period spread for arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Market Situation**: Iron ore prices are at the bottom and fluctuating, with weak short - term driving factors. Terminal steel demand is in a seasonal off - peak, but the downward space for iron ore prices is limited [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: sideways movement; Arbitrage: mainly long 9/1 inter - period spread; Options: wait - and - see [3]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - **Mainstream Mines**: Global iron ore shipments increased significantly on a week - on - week basis. Mainstream mines entered the shipping peak, and domestic arrivals increased significantly on a week - on - week basis. However, the total shipments of mainstream mines from the beginning of the year still contributed to a reduction, and the replenishment volume since the second quarter was limited. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 29.39 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%/3.8 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments were 17.25 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 1.1%/4.4 million tons, and Brazil's were 6.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%/5.4 million tons [6][8][10]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments increased rapidly on a week - on - week basis. The current shipping level is close to that of the same period last year, but it has little impact on the overall supply. From a monthly perspective, the year - on - year reduction in non - Australian and non - Brazilian shipments is difficult to reverse in the short term. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore shipments was 5.29 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 4%/4.8 million tons [11][12]. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: In 2025 to date, domestic hot metal production increased by 3.8%/13.8 million tons year - on - year, and crude steel production increased by 2%/8.9 million tons year - on - year. Building material demand decreased by 3.1%/6 million tons year - on - year, while non - building material demand increased by 5.3%/10.5 million tons year - on - year. Domestic crude steel consumption (excluding exports) increased by 1.5%/5.1 million tons year - on - year. Although the overall growth rate of manufacturing steel demand has slowed down, it is expected to maintain its resilience [24][27]. - **Overseas Demand**: In the first half of the year, overseas iron element consumption increased slightly year - on - year [3]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, the congestion decreased rapidly, and the total inventory of steel mills' iron ore decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, but the total inventory of domestic imported iron ore increased slightly on a week - on - week basis. The current total iron element inventory is at a relatively low level in the past five years, which provides certain support for iron ore price valuation [14][16][22]. Price and Spread - **Price**: The prices of imported iron ore at ports, including the 62% Platts iron ore price index, Qingdao Port PB powder price, and Qingdao Port Carajás fines price, are presented in the report [33][34]. - **Profit**: The import profits of PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special fines, etc., are shown, and the profits of East China's mainstream steel mills are running at a low level [35][36][37]. - **Spread**: The differences between domestic and foreign US dollar prices, the basis rate of iron ore, and the spreads between different contracts are analyzed. The basis of the iron ore main contract is expected to converge, and the 9/1 inter - period spread is expected to widen [39][40][44]. Scrap Steel - This week, the total daily consumption of 255 steel mills' scrap steel was 542,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. The daily consumption of 89 short - process steel mills was 173,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from last week. The total inventory of 147 steel mills' scrap steel was 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons from last week [42]. Domestic Iron Concentrate - The production, demand, and inventory data of domestic iron concentrate, including the production of domestic iron concentrate, North China iron concentrate, and the inventory of 363 mines' iron concentrate, are provided [46][47].