来源：郑经 简单说,美元最近像是个过气的明星,有点黯淡。 今年美联储降了三次息,美元指数跌破了90,年内 跌了超过8%。大家对他的热情,肉眼可见地降 温。 1. 经济基本盘在好转:咱们前三季度GDP增速稳在 5%以上,出口连续正增长,尤其像新能源汽车、 锂电池这些"新东西"出口很猛。这是支撑汇率的 底气。 2. 年底"结汇潮"汹涌:每年四季度,外贸企业都 要把赚的美元换成人民币(结汇)。今年大家预期 人民币升值,更急着换,形成"越涨越换,越换越 涨"的循环。市场里等着换回人民币的美元,是个 不小的数字。 3. 中美经济周期"错位"了:用个简单比喻,美国 经济在"踩刹车",而我们在艰难"爬坡过 坎"后,开始"轻踩油门"了。一边在挤泡沫,另 一边在攒后劲。货币强弱,说到底就是国力强弱的 镜子。 为啥会这样? 几个原因: 1. 美国经济有点"虚":最直观的是就业,失业率 升到了4.6%,新增就业人数断崖式下跌。这说明企 业收缩,消费乏力,经济在减速。 2. 政治开始"指挥"央行:特朗普放话要找个听话 的美联储主席。一旦央行失去独立性,印钞就变成 了政治工具,大家对美元的信任自然会打折扣。一 个信用基石松动了的货币, ...

在这样的市场环境中，海尔智家引入本土资本作为战略股东的操作堪称精妙。Bharti集团作为印度本土 综合性巨头，手握深厚的本地资源与对政策理解的精准到位;华平投资则是全球知名私募股权机构，兼 具资本运作经验与全球资源。两大股东的加持，既呼应了TikTok引入甲骨文、银湖资本、阿联酋MGX 等投资者实现美国市场合规的成功路径，更让海尔印度的运营风险实现实质性分流。 三重利好：这波操作的明智之处 具体来看海尔智家腾挪印度股权的"这波操作"，将为其带来三重实质性利好。 首先，是可以有效回收历史资金，实现资金回笼，落袋为安。海尔深耕印度市场超20年，累计投资超3 亿美元，过去七年更是实现了25%的年复合增长率，稳居行业前列。此次股权出让，恰逢企业价值高 位，不仅能全额回收前期建厂等投入，更能将多年积累的利润转化为实实在在的现金流，为母公司财务 报表注入强心剂。尽管官方未披露交易金额，但多方消息证实，此次估值已远超历史投资规模，收益相 当可观。 史诗级的外资逃亡在印度发生了!路透社近期报道指出，自2025年初以来，印度股市/股权市场有将近 170亿美元的资金撤离印度，这一速度为几十年从未有过。 而近期海尔智家（60069 ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has recently surpassed the 7.0 mark against the USD, indicating a significant shift in the financial market that affects various sectors and individual consumers [1][3] - The appreciation of the RMB is driven by three main forces: a weakening USD, increased demand for RMB from domestic companies converting foreign earnings, and inflows from international investors seeking undervalued assets in China's stock and bond markets [1][2] Group 2 - Industries benefiting from the RMB appreciation include those that import goods, such as airlines, which will see reduced costs for their USD-denominated debts, leading to increased profits [4] - Other sectors like paper, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals will also benefit from lower import costs due to the stronger RMB, enhancing their profit margins [4] - Core Chinese assets are being revalued positively as foreign investors are attracted to stable blue-chip stocks and leading companies in the financial and consumer sectors [4] Group 3 - Conversely, export-oriented industries, such as home appliances, clothing, and machinery manufacturers, face challenges as their products become more expensive in USD terms, potentially leading to reduced orders and profit compression [5] - The stock market is reacting to these concerns, with companies heavily reliant on exports already showing signs of pressure in their stock prices [5] Group 4 - The RMB's appreciation has implications for consumers, such as lower costs for overseas education, travel, and online shopping, making it a favorable time for currency exchange [6][8] - Investors are advised to reassess their portfolios, focusing on sectors that benefit from the RMB's strength while avoiding those that are negatively impacted by the currency's appreciation [9]

群益证券发布研报称，随着三花智控（002050）(02050)积极拓展新领域，产能稳步扩张，预计公司业 绩在未来几年仍将保持20-30%的增长。公司此前公告将投入3-6亿元进行回购，截止11月底回购金额仅 1.06亿元，预计公司仍将择机进行回购，将对股价有积极影响。该行预计公司2025/2026/2027年分别实 现净利润42.08/50.55/59.47亿元，同比+35.8%/+20.1%/+17.6%，EPS分别为1/1.2/1.41元，H股股价对应PE 分别为30/25/21倍,给予"买进"建议。 群益证券主要观点如下： 公司发布2025年业绩预告，归属上市公司股东净利润预计为38.74亿元-46.49亿元，同比增长25%-50%， 预告中值为42.6亿元，同比增长37.5%。公司业绩符合预期。 公司坚定看好机器人发展前景，借助与大客户的紧密合作关系，切入机器人执行器赛道。公司于今年成 立了机器人事业部，加大了对机器人相关产品的研发投入。根据港股招股书，公司将募集额的10%(即7 亿元)投入机器人业务，未来3年将扩招200名研发人才。公司目前正在配合大客户进行研发、试制。市 场预计2026年大客户机器人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations for more structural investment opportunities in A-shares, driven by a relatively loose liquidity environment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends and Performance - Both A-shares and U.S. stocks exhibited significant structural market characteristics in 2025, with technology as a common leading sector. The ChiNext Index rose over 50%, and the Sci-Tech 50 increased by more than 36% [1]. - Since 2020, A-shares have shown clear "structural market" characteristics, with notable trends in sectors such as electric equipment, new energy, and consumer services [1][2]. Group 2: Key Investment Themes for 2026 - The four main investment themes for 2026 include: 1. Technology: Strong focus on AI chain industry upgrades and innovation [3]. 2. Manufacturing: Emphasis on emerging industries like humanoid robots, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, and solid-state batteries, which are prioritized by policy [3]. 3. Cyclical sectors: Benefiting from global supply-demand changes and policies aimed at reducing competition [3]. 4. Consumption: Positive policy signals are noted, but the effectiveness of implementation is crucial [3]. Group 3: Insights from Policy and Market Perspectives - The market can be analyzed from both policy and market perspectives, with key directions identified as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and reducing competition [2]. - Both domestic and foreign investors are optimistic about A-shares, with a notable improvement in foreign investment sentiment compared to the previous year [2].

Core Viewpoint - The focus on free cash flow strategies in the A-share market has increased this year, as it is seen as a better indicator of a company's ability to create value for shareholders compared to net profit [1] Group 1: Free Cash Flow Strategy - Free cash flow is defined as the cash remaining after a company has paid all necessary operating expenses and future investments, making it a key metric for assessing financial health [1] - The strategy is based on the principle that a company's value equals the discounted future free cash flows, with a focus on selecting companies with strong free cash flow [2] - The fund managed by the company, Guangfa Longtou Optimal, has achieved a return of 43.20% year-to-date, outperforming the national free cash flow index by nearly 31 percentage points [1] Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - The company is optimistic about three main areas: 1. Resource products like copper and aluminum, which are expected to benefit from manufacturing recovery and financial support due to strong cash flow and healthy balance sheets [3] 2. Manufacturing going overseas, particularly in sectors like lithium batteries and oil and gas equipment, where leading companies show strong cash flow and competitive advantages [3] 3. Industries with declining capital expenditures and attractive free cash flow, such as chemicals, paper, and steel, are also of interest [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - Despite a slowdown in domestic economic growth, the overall resilience remains, with signs of stabilization and recovery in corporate earnings excluding financial and oil sectors [2] - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will likely continue its rate-cutting cycle until inflation shows a substantial rebound [2]

Core Viewpoint - Haier Smart Home's decision to sell 49% of its stake in its Indian subsidiary to Warburg Pincus and Bharti Group is a strategic move to mitigate risks and enhance operational efficiency in the current international environment [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Financial Implications - The sale allows Haier to recover historical investments, as its Indian operations have seen a compound annual growth rate of 25% over the past seven years, indicating strong market performance [3]. - The transaction is expected to exceed historical investment amounts, although specific figures have not been disclosed [4]. Group 2: Market and Operational Strategy - The Indian home appliance market is projected to grow from $77.74 billion in 2024 to $135.33 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.70%, making it one of the fastest-growing markets globally [4]. - Collaborating with local partners like Warburg Pincus and Bharti Group will enable Haier to leverage local networks and resources, enhancing product innovation and market penetration [4]. Group 3: Risk Management - By introducing local capital, Haier can better navigate geopolitical risks and regulatory challenges in India, effectively distributing risks related to policies, laws, and taxes [4]. - This strategic move is seen as a way to safeguard assets in a complex international landscape, particularly in a market where foreign investments face scrutiny [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese home appliance industry is experiencing fluctuations in exports due to changing tariffs, but China remains a dominant manufacturing and exporting country, with brands continuing to expand globally despite challenges [4]. Group 1: Company Strategies - Leto Electric decided to continue production in China while exploring overseas markets after facing unexpected tariff increases in the U.S. [5] - The company faced challenges with U.S. tariffs exceeding 100%, leading to canceled orders and financial strain, prompting exploration of production in Vietnam and Cambodia [5][6]. - After evaluating production options in Cambodia and Malaysia, Leto ultimately chose to expand its production capacity in China, increasing factory space by one-third [6][10]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Despite tariff disruptions, companies like Leto and Xinbao continue to prioritize domestic production for U.S. orders, with Xinbao expanding its manufacturing base in Indonesia [7]. - Major brands like Haier and Midea are enhancing their overseas production capabilities and focusing on local market engagement through sports marketing and brand interaction [9][10]. - The global home appliance market is projected to grow, with retail volume expected to reach 7.8 billion units and retail value to reach $425 billion by 2028, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 1.8% and 2.5% respectively [9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Chinese home appliance sector is expected to see stable growth in exports, with an estimated 21 million units exported in 2025, despite varying performance across product categories [10]. - Chinese brands are increasingly dominating the global market for robotic vacuum cleaners, capturing 65.7% of the market share [11]. - The trend of Chinese brands transitioning from merely exporting products to establishing a local presence and adapting to market needs is becoming more pronounced [12].

01. 宏观要闻 1、央行将开展4000亿元MLF操作 期限为1年期 央行公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年12月25日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多 重价位中标方式开展4000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 2、财政部拟发行2025年记账式贴现(八十二期)国债 竞争性招标面值总额600亿元 财政部拟发行2025年记账式贴现(八十二期)国债。本期国债为期限91天的贴现债。本期国债竞争性招标 面值总额600亿元，进行甲类成员追加投标。本期国债发行价格通过竞争性招标确定，以低于票面金额 的价格贴现发行。本期国债自2025年12月25日开始计息，于2026年3月26日(节假日顺延)按面值偿还。 招标时间为2025年12月24日上午10:35至11:35。 主要变化有：引导外商投资先进制造业，《鼓励目录》新增或扩展了终端产品、零部件、原材料等领域 有关条目，提升产业链供应链发展水平。引导外商投资现代服务业，《鼓励目录》新增或扩展了商务服 务、技术服务、科学研究、服务消费等领域有关条目，促进服务业高质量发展。此外，鼓励引导外商投 资中西部地区、东北地区和海南省。新版《鼓励目录》将自2026年2月1日起 ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the USD for the first time since September 2024, currently reported at 6.99825 [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations, preventing excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [3] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to increase the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets, particularly for foreign investors focused on exchange rate gains [3] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that during periods of RMB appreciation, foreign capital, represented by "northbound funds," tends to show accelerated net inflows, favoring liquid assets that align with international valuations [3] - A-share market valuations are currently at historically low levels, and a stronger RMB may catalyze long-term foreign capital to reassess and increase allocations to Chinese assets, potentially stabilizing or boosting market indices [3] - The impact of RMB appreciation on listed companies is not uniform; export-oriented industries such as home appliances, electronics, textiles, and machinery may face reduced price competitiveness in international markets, leading to potential downward pressure on profit expectations [4] Group 3 - Beneficiaries of RMB appreciation include industries with significant dollar-denominated liabilities, such as airlines, which may see improved financial statements due to increased exchange gains [4] - Cost-importing sectors, like paper and basic chemicals, will benefit from reduced procurement costs for raw materials, enhancing profit margins [4] - The psychological impact of RMB appreciation is significant, as it signals economic stability and effective policy, which can fundamentally boost market risk appetite [4] Group 4 - The significance of the RMB surpassing the 7.0 mark is more psychological and directional rather than indicative of long-term trends; sustainable appreciation is contingent on confirmed domestic economic recovery and substantial improvements in corporate earnings [5] - Investors should closely monitor upcoming key economic data releases and monetary policy trends from major economies to gauge the sustainability of RMB appreciation [5]