2025 年 12 月 29 日现货白银上演极端波动行情：开盘暴力拉升突破 80 美元 / 盎司关口，迅速触及 83 美元 / 盎司，日内涨幅一度超 5%，年内累计涨幅扩大至 52 美元；但随后 30 分钟内大幅跳水逾 6 美 元，日内振幅达 9 美元，最新报 76.5 美元 / 盎司，跌幅超 3%。同期，现货黄金高开逼近 4550 美元 / 盎 司新高后回落，跌破 4500 美元关口至 4497 美元 / 盎司。 此次异动并非偶然，Wmax拆解数据后明确三大核心驱动：一是地缘政治升级、美元弱势延续为贵金属 提供底层支撑，契合年末历史涨势规律；二是年末流动性稀薄加剧短期走势偏离基本面；三是白银纸货 与实物供需错配，Wmax供需模型验证显示实物库存难以满足交割需求，叠加美国关键矿产进口调查可 能引发贸易限制，进一步激化市场争夺。值得注意的是，Wmax风险预警系统已捕捉短期回调信号，贵 金属高位下短期投资者获利了结意愿升温，瑞银提示的交易风险与Wmax测算的"高位波动率阈值"共 振，成为白银大幅跳水的重要诱因。 2026 年贵金属走强的结构性支撑 Wmax结合宏观经济模型与行业数据推演，识别出2026年贵金属市场 ...

Group 1 - The overall trading pace in the market remains restrained due to the year-end holiday effects, but liquidity has improved compared to previous periods [1] - Gold and silver prices have experienced a pullback after reaching historical highs, indicating a phase of profit-taking and market consolidation [1] - The U.S. dollar index is maintaining a low range, showing limited volatility in major non-U.S. currencies, which has not provided clear direction for precious metals [1] Group 2 - Despite short-term pressure, gold has seen a cumulative increase of nearly 70% in 2025, marking its best annual performance since the late 1970s [2] - Trump's comments regarding the next Federal Reserve chair maintaining a low interest rate stance have reignited discussions about policy independence and future monetary paths, reinforcing the long-term value of traditional safe-haven assets like gold [2] - The Bank of Japan's recent monetary policy meeting highlighted concerns over inflation risks, although market expectations for actual policy changes remain cautious [2] Group 3 - Technically, gold prices are holding above the 100-day exponential moving average, with the Bollinger Bands indicating an ongoing upward structure [3] - Key resistance for gold is noted at $4550, with potential upward movement towards the psychological level of $4600 if trading volume supports it; initial support is at $4430 [3] - The current pullback in gold prices is viewed as a structural consolidation rather than a reversal of fundamental logic, with market focus shifting to Federal Reserve policy signals and global risk sentiment [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant fluctuations in precious metal prices, particularly gold, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and market adjustments [1][2] - On December 29, gold prices initially dropped below $4500 per ounce due to profit-taking and easing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but later rebounded to around $4510 per ounce [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced a major margin adjustment on December 26, increasing the margin requirements for gold, silver, and lithium futures, aimed at tightening market liquidity and encouraging rational trading [1] Group 2 - Recent increases in precious metal prices are supported by four main factors: rising geopolitical uncertainties enhancing safe-haven demand, a weakening dollar reducing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, accelerated demand for metals due to AI and energy transition, and ongoing supply constraints in copper, silver, and platinum [2] - The demand structure for metals is changing, influenced by significant investments in the photovoltaic energy sector, necessitating a reevaluation of traditional risk assessment models [1][2]

Group 1 - Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange reached a record high of $12,960 per ton, with a daily increase of 6.18% [1] - The rise in copper prices is attributed to market expectations of continued loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve next year and a weaker dollar reducing holding costs [1] - Spot silver experienced significant volatility, initially rising nearly 6% before dropping close to 5%, while spot gold fell below $4,500, with a decline of over 1% [1] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also decreased, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry quoted at 1,406 yuan per gram, down 6 yuan from 1,412 yuan per gram on December 27 [4] - Analysts warn that precious metal prices are at a precarious point, with a risk of correction accumulating [4] - Market analysts suggest that the rise in precious metal prices is driven by expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, along with strong buying from central banks and private investors [4]

证券之星消息，12月29日贵金属板块较上一交易日下跌1.86%，晓程科技领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3965.28，上涨0.04%。深证成指报收于13537.1，下跌0.49%。贵金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002716 湖南白银 | | 3.63 Z | 10.02% | -1.98 Z | -5.47% | -1.65 Z | -4.55% | | 002155 湖南黄金 | | 3454.40万 | 2.94% | -2026.55万 | -1.73% | -1427.85万 | -1.22% | | 601069 西部黄金 | | 2407.17万 | 3.12% | -3245.24万 | -4.20% | 838.06万 | 1.09% | | 002237 恒邦股份 | | -3635.61万 | -3.40% | 5182.45万 | 4.85% | -15 ...

12月29日A股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指微涨走出九连阳，创业板指一度跌超1%。截至收盘，沪指涨 0.04%，深成指跌0.49%，创业板指跌0.66%。 盘面上，全市场超3300只个股下跌。从板块来看，机器人概念午后反复活跃，步科股份20cm涨停创历 史新高，五洲新春、等多股涨停。商业航天概念延续强势，神剑股份8连板，金风科技、雷科防务等十 余股涨停。碳纤维概念表现活跃，吉林化纤、和顺科技双双涨停。下跌方面，电池、乳业、电力等板块 跌幅居前。沪深两市成交额2.14万亿，较上一个交易日缩量209亿。 白银等贵金属价格出现巨震 今日(12月29日)继上周五的"史诗级"暴涨后，国际白银价格上演了过山车式的大逆转行情：现货白银开 盘暴力拉升，一度上涨逾5%，站上83美元/盎司；之后又上演跳水，截至发稿，伦敦银现货价格跌幅达 4%，价格在75美元/盎司左右。与此同时，现货钯金日内重挫12%，现报1674.99美元/盎司。对于下跌原 因，有分析认为交易员开始从创纪录的贵金属涨势中获利了结。 值得注意的是国投白银LOF复牌后也出现大幅波动，直线跌停后又快速拉升，截至收盘，二级市场涨幅 达0.75%，溢价率为24.15%。 今年 ...

12月29日，截止发稿，COMEX白银价格为75.75美元/盎司，现货白银价格为75.89美元/盎司，WTI原油为57.39美元/桶。自1983年WTI原油期货交 易启动以来，白银价格持续高于原油的情形极为罕见，仅在2020年疫情期间短暂出现过两次。 白银价格突破45年纪录并预计将翻倍上涨，创造了大宗商品市场的罕见景象：一盎司现货白银和期货白银的价格均超过了一桶原油。贵金属在避 险需求与结构性供应紧张推动下持续走强，而原油市场则在供需格局再平衡过程中承压。 白银价格的强劲上涨，主要得益于投资者和工业需求的双重驱动。在工业应用方面，从太阳能电池板到电动汽车等清洁能源领域，对白银的消耗 量持续攀升，为其提供了坚实的长期需求支撑。与此同时，全球原油市场面临供给过剩与需求结构转型的双重压力，2025年以来国际油价累计下 跌21%，已回落至疫情复苏后的低位水平。 在工业应用层面，白银因其优异的导电性与抗菌性，成为新能源转型与科技产业的关键材料。需求不仅来自传统珠宝与医疗器械制造，更显著的 推动力源自光伏、电动汽车及数据中心等高速增长领域。花旗分析指出，仅太阳能产业就已消耗全球白银年产量的近30%，凸显其结构性需求缺 口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in silver prices, which fell nearly 5%, alongside gold prices dropping below $4,500 per ounce, indicates a profit-taking trend among speculative investors, suggesting increased volatility in silver prices [1] Group 1: Price Movements and Trends - Precious metal prices have risen significantly this year, driven by central bank purchases, inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Year-to-date, silver has increased over 150%, while gold has risen approximately 70%, with silver's gains outpacing gold [1] - The price surge in silver is attributed to strong industrial demand, low global inventories at a ten-year low, and its classification as a critical mineral [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major silver-producing countries, Mexico and Peru, have seen a reduction in output this year, while the growth in silver recycling has been insufficient, leading to an overall supply shortage [1] - Silver's market is characterized by its smaller size and shallower depth compared to gold, which contributes to its more pronounced price volatility [1] Group 3: Market Risks and Speculation - The influx of funds into the silver market has resulted in more extreme price fluctuations due to its speculative nature, with historical instances of significant price swings [2] - Analysts warn that the current market sentiment is overly heated, leading to irrational trading and significant deviations from actual net values of silver-related funds, posing substantial risks [2] - Concerns have been raised about the high premiums on silver funds, which, combined with multiple uncertainties, could lead to a valuation correction, as any bubble detached from fundamentals is likely to burst [2]

Group 1: Market Movements - Palladium prices fell sharply by 10.00%, currently trading at $1712.93 per ounce [1] - Platinum futures hit the limit down again with a 10% drop, reported at 634.35 yuan per gram, before rebounding to 659.65 yuan per gram, narrowing the decline to 6.41% [1] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Spot silver dropped by 2.98%, currently at $76.59 per ounce, after experiencing a volatile trading session with a peak of over 5% increase to $83 per ounce, followed by a drop below $75, resulting in a daily fluctuation of $9 [2] - Silver prices have surged nearly 180% this year, driven by supply tightness, designation as a critical mineral by the U.S., strong industrial demand, geopolitical tensions boosting safe-haven demand, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3: Silver Market Valuation - The current market capitalization of silver is approximately $4.485 trillion, ranking it as the third-largest asset globally, behind gold and Nvidia [3] - Silver's market capitalization recently surpassed that of Google, marking a significant milestone in its valuation [3] Group 4: Fund Performance and Market Reactions - The Guotai Silver LOF experienced significant volatility, hitting the limit down before quickly rebounding, with a closing price of 2.746 yuan and an 8.8% increase, resulting in a premium rate of 34.06% [3][4] - The fund's trading price has shown extreme fluctuations, with premium rates reaching 68.16% during a three-day limit-up period, followed by a drop to below 30% [4] - Guotai Ruijin Fund has issued multiple risk warnings and implemented measures such as trading halts and purchase limits to cool the market, indicating that the fund's market price significantly exceeds its net asset value [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Financial Street Securities Research Institute constructed a strategy portfolio based on industry and theme ETFs, referring to two strategy reports published in 2024 [1]. - From December 22 - 26, 2025, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 4.34%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 2.29%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the strategy's out - of - sample cumulative return was about 32.21%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 8.98% [2]. - In the week of December 29, 2025, the model recommended allocating to sectors such as securities, industrial metals, and precious metals. The strategy will newly hold products like Securities ETF Leader, Mining ETF, Gold Stocks ETF, and Communication ETF, and continue to hold products such as Power Grid Equipment ETF and Battery ETF [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETFs Information - The report lists information about multiple ETFs, including their fund codes, names, market values, holding situations, heavy - held Shenwan industries and weights, as well as weekly and daily timing signals. For example, Securities ETF Leader has a market value of 41.14 billion yuan, is being调入, and has 100% in the securities industry, with a weekly timing signal of - 1 and a daily timing signal of 1 [2]. Performance Tracking - In the period from December 22 - 26, 2025, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 4.34%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 2.29%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the strategy's out - of - sample cumulative return was about 32.21%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 8.98% [2]. Portfolio Adjustment - In the week of December 29, 2025, some ETFs were newly added, some continued to be held, and some were removed. For instance, Securities ETF Leader, Mining ETF, Gold Stocks ETF, and Communication ETF were newly added; Power Grid Equipment ETF and Battery ETF continued to be held; while Real Estate ETF, etc., were removed [2][11].