Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current financial market is influenced by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes. Different industries present various trends, with most markets expected to show oscillatory movements, and investors need to closely monitor relevant events and data [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a tug - of - war between geopolitical risk premiums and a supply - surplus fundamental. OPEC+ may maintain stable production in March, but major supply disruptions could prompt an output increase. High inventory pressure in Q1 2026 is a long - term factor suppressing price increases. Brent crude has rebounded to $65/barrel, and WTI to $61/barrel. Attention should be paid to whether the Iran conflict will threaten actual supply [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated violently, with gold and silver breaking through key integer thresholds. It is advisable to wait for volatility to decline before participating. Focus on the Fed meeting, Middle East situation, and the risk of the US government shutdown [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, US copper prices declined at the end of the session. The market may focus on the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff threats. Copper prices are likely to remain in a high - level oscillation and tend to adjust [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Geopolitical events have increased market volatility, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the high - level oscillation range [5]. - **Other Metals**: Each metal has its own supply - demand characteristics. For example, zinc has strong cost support but weak consumption; lead has a cost - consumption game; nickel has high - level oscillation and market caution; tin has increasing supply pressure; and lithium carbonate has high - level oscillation and high short - term uncertainty [8][9][10]. - **New Energy - Related Materials**: - **Polysilicon**: The spot market is sluggish, with inventory pressure rising. The "rush - to - export" has not effectively boosted procurement. The market is expected to continue oscillating [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It was boosted by production - cut expectations but has seen a retracement in gains. Supply is decreasing, but demand is weak in various sectors, and inventory is slightly increasing. It is expected to enter a de - stocking phase in February, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited [14]. - **Building Materials and Fuels**: - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors support the market in the short term. High - sulfur supply has increased, and low - sulfur supply tightness has eased. The market is expected to follow crude oil and show a strong trend [22]. - **Asphalt**: It has been in an oscillatory range since early January. Cost provides support, but terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [23]. - **Urea**: The futures market is oscillating firmly, and the spot price is diverging. Supply pressure remains, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: Due to the tense Iran situation, the market rose significantly. Overseas device operation is at a low level, and port inventory has slightly increased. It is expected to operate strongly in the short term and gradually de - stock in the long term [25]. - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand and price trends. For example, pure benzene is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and de - stock in the long term; styrene has cost support but short - term price pressure; and polypropylene, plastic, and propylene have complex supply - demand situations [26][27][28]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The market has digested the South American harvest expectations. Brazilian soybean harvesting is slow, and Chinese soybean procurement is progressing. The market may bottom - oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to Brazilian harvest and Canadian rapeseed imports [36]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Malaysian palm oil supply - demand has improved marginally, and US soybean oil policies are favorable. The market is affected by policies and macro - inflation trading [37]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The import situation of rapeseed is uncertain. The supply - demand difference between rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is conducive to the increase of the oil - meal ratio, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [38]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pigs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price has declined. The industry will face accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival, and pig prices may reach a low point in the first half of next year [41]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is strong due to supply reduction and pre - festival demand. The futures near - month contract is strong, and the far - month contract is weak. In the short term, observe whether the spot price can remain strong, and in the long term, consider going long on the first - half - year contracts at low prices [42]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: US cotton is at the bottom, and Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating at a high level. Demand is stable in the off - season, and the market may continue to oscillate [43]. - **Sugar**: International sugar production varies by country. In China, the market focuses on production differences, and short - term prices face pressure [44]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating. Spot trading has increased for pre - festival stocking, and attention should be paid to the impact of quality and sentiment on inventory reduction [45]. - **Wood and Pulp**: Wood prices are low, with low inventory providing support. Pulp demand is weak, and the short - term fundamentals are general [46][47]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares adjusted yesterday, and the market is affected by geopolitical situations, regulatory attitudes, and the Fed's decisions. The index is expected to change from a rapid rise to an oscillatory - strong trend [48]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On January 26, 2026, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated performance. The 30 - year bond continued to rise, and the curve flattened. Strategies include paying attention to TS - T steepening and T - TL flattening opportunities [49].

Market Overview - The international precious metals market has regained upward momentum, with spot gold surpassing $5070 per ounce, increasing by 1.23%, and spot silver rising by 5.00% to reach $110 per ounce [1] - A significant fluctuation was observed in the previous trading day, where spot gold briefly exceeded $5100 per ounce before dropping below $5000, ultimately closing at $5010.08 per ounce, a 0.47% increase [3] - Spot silver experienced a dramatic rise of 14% during the day, reaching $117 per ounce, but closed at $103.90 per ounce, up 0.95% [3] Regulatory Actions - In response to market volatility, regulatory bodies have implemented measures to strengthen risk control, including limits on the maximum number of contracts for day trading in silver and tin futures [4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to margin requirements and price fluctuation limits for copper and aluminum futures, effective January 28 [4] Institutional Perspectives - There is a notable divergence in institutional outlooks on precious metals, with some institutions maintaining a bullish stance. Société Générale predicts gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce by year-end, while Morgan Stanley sets a bullish target of $5700 per ounce [5] - Various futures companies express concerns about the current high volatility in precious metals, with expectations of significant price fluctuations, particularly in silver [6][7] - The macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and geopolitical risks, continues to support the long-term outlook for precious metals [7]

Core Viewpoint - The colored metal ETF Huabao (159876) continues to show strong performance, achieving a historical high with a daily increase of 1.12% and a total net subscription of 1.42 million units, indicating robust market interest and investment inflow [1][5]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Huabao colored metal ETF has reached a new historical scale of 21.6 billion yuan as of January 26, with a total of 10.28 billion yuan net inflow over the past 20 days [1]. - The ETF's trading volume was notably high, with a real-time transaction amount of 194 million yuan within the first hour of trading [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The overall market for colored metals is bullish, with various metals such as gold, silver, tin, and lithium reaching historical highs, suggesting a comprehensive bull market in the sector [3]. - The recent adjustments in futures trading margins and limits by the Shanghai Futures Exchange indicate a regulatory response to market volatility, which may impact trading dynamics [2]. Group 3: Individual Stock Performance - Notable individual stocks within the colored metal sector have shown significant gains, with silver stocks achieving a cumulative increase of 77% over six days, and other companies like Hunan Gold and Zijin Mining also experiencing substantial price increases [6]. - The performance of key stocks such as Huafeng Aluminum and Xinye Silver has been strong, with increases exceeding 4% [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the colored metal sector is entering a "super cycle," with expectations of continued price increases across various metals, driven by stable demand and supply constraints [5]. - The outlook for rare earth metals is also positive, with anticipated price increases due to supply chain constraints and growing demand [3].

Core Viewpoint - The colored metal ETF Huabao (159876) continues to perform strongly, achieving a 1.12% increase and hitting a historical high, with significant trading activity and net subscriptions [1][9]. Group 1: ETF Performance - Huabao ETF has seen a net subscription of 142 million units, accumulating 1.028 billion yuan over the past 20 days [1][9]. - As of January 26, the ETF's total size reached 2.16 billion yuan, marking a historical peak [1][9]. Group 2: Market Trends - The market is witnessing a bullish trend in the colored metal sector, with various metals like gold, silver, and lithium reaching historical highs [3][11]. - The recent adjustments in futures trading regulations by the Shanghai Futures Exchange indicate a tightening of control over trading activities, which may impact market dynamics [10][11]. Group 3: Individual Stock Performance - Notable individual stocks include Hunan Gold with a 10.01% increase, Silver Nonferrous with a 9.90% rise, and Zijin Mining up by 7.16% [2][10]. - Silver Nonferrous has achieved a six-day cumulative increase of 77%, while Hunan Gold has reached a trading halt with two consecutive days of gains [4][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the colored metal sector is entering a "super cycle," with a comprehensive index covering various metals, which may enhance investment opportunities [6][13]. - The outlook for the colored metal sector remains positive, with expectations of continued price increases and market recovery [3][12].

Market Overview - The A-share major indices have rebounded after hitting a low, with the ChiNext index turning positive after previously dropping over 1% [1] - As of 10:37, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05% to 4134.83 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.11% to 14300.72 points, and the ChiNext index increased by 0.77% to 3344.64 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 15144.30 billion, a decrease of nearly 3000 billion compared to the same time the previous day [1][4] Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, precious metals, insurance, and semiconductors showed the highest gains [1] - Conversely, sectors such as batteries, aquaculture, pharmaceutical commerce, photovoltaic equipment, and power grid equipment experienced the largest declines [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to show a fluctuating and differentiated pattern, with total trading volume reaching 3.28 trillion yuan, marking the second consecutive trading day above 3 trillion yuan [1] - The precious metals sector has seen a surge due to multiple favorable factors, with international gold prices hitting a historical high, as both New York and London gold prices surpassed $5,100 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also reached historical highs, approaching 1,580 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - Silver is experiencing accelerated growth due to its unique physical properties, becoming an essential raw material in solar photovoltaic, automotive and electric vehicles, data centers, and artificial intelligence sectors [1] - There has been a notable occurrence of large sell orders in core heavyweight stocks during the closing auction phase, with Zijin Mining seeing sell orders exceeding 4 billion yuan, and other companies like China Ping An and Jiangxi Copper also experiencing significant sell pressures [1] - This pattern of large sell orders in heavyweight stocks has been observed previously, indicating a trend in the financial, resource, and consumer sectors during periods of high market activity [2] Group 3 - Multiple brokerage reports suggest that despite a slowing market rhythm, the upward momentum in the A-share market is expected to continue, particularly as the annual performance forecasts of listed companies begin to be disclosed [2] - The focus on performance metrics is anticipated to become more pronounced with the simultaneous disclosure of financial results from North American tech giants [2]

| | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.50%，报 5004.8 美元/盎司。COMEX 白银期货涨 2.52%，报 103.89 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约上涨 1.49%报 1148.14 元/克，沪银主力合约上涨 9.93% 报 29005 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 1 月 26 日，全球最大的黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Trust 持仓量为 1086.53 吨， 较前一个交易日维持不变。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 115.58 吨，当前持仓量为 15974.4 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率 2.8%，维持利率不变 | | | | | 的概率为 97.2%。到 3 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 15.5%，维持利率不 ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to "meme trading" rather than fundamental factors, as noted by Marko Kolanovic from JPMorgan [3] - Silver prices have increased approximately 54% this year and 264% over the past year, but Kolanovic predicts a potential decline of about 50% by late 2026 [3] - Trading volumes for popular silver ETFs and related options have reached historical highs, indicating speculative trading behavior [3] Group 2 - Mike Antonelli from Baird compares silver to GameStop, questioning the sustainability of its price increase despite unchanged industrial demand [4] - Warren Patterson from ING highlights that silver's dual role as both an industrial and investment metal amplifies price volatility, while macroeconomic factors remain supportive [4] - Long-term bullish sentiment on silver is driven by increasing industrial demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, alongside supply constraints [4] Group 3 - Geopolitical uncertainties, including potential U.S. government shutdowns, have increased demand for traditional safe-haven assets like silver [5] - The silver market is at a crossroads, facing speculative trading pressures and fundamental support, which will determine its price trajectory [5]

Group 1 - The A-shares market opened slightly higher on January 27, with active performance in sectors such as precious metals, internet e-commerce, and Kuaishou [1] - The A500 ETF (512050) experienced a minor adjustment of 0.08% as of 9:38 AM, with holdings like Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit, and stocks such as Tianfu Communication, Haomai Technology, and Aero Engine Control also rising [1] - Over the past 250 trading days, the A500 ETF has seen a growth of over 35%, with an average daily trading volume of 5.256 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The A500 ETF has seen a significant scale increase of 447 million yuan over the past week, leading in new scale among comparable funds [2] - Investors have continued to increase their positions in emerging market assets, with inflows into emerging market ETFs extending for the 14th consecutive week [1][2] - Inflows into the Chinese market reached 1.65 billion USD during the week, with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF being the most favored [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced a mild increase this week, with the average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets significantly declining, yet remaining at a historical high of approximately 2.7 trillion [1][3] - A-shares have escaped short-term emotional fluctuations and returned to a rational operational track, supporting a steady and gradual bull market trend [1][3] - Market activity remains high, indicating numerous investment opportunities [1][3] Investment Strategy - The company anticipates that the market will exhibit a "slow bull" characteristic until the Chinese New Year, with rapid theme rotations [1][3] - A long-term investment strategy is recommended, focusing on selecting stocks with favorable long-term trends while avoiding short-term speculation [1][3] Long-term Focus Areas 1. The repeated TACO (Trade Adjustment and Cooperation Agreement) by the U.S. may lead countries to accelerate self-sufficiency in defense, resources, finance, and supply chains, intensifying resource competition and indicating an upward cycle for commodities [1][3] 2. The intensifying global technology competition is driving the domestic strategy for technological self-reliance, presenting dual development opportunities in the A-share technology growth sector through domestic substitution and industrial upgrading [1][3] Industry Performance - In the past week, the construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, and steel industries performed notably well, with respective increases of +9.23%, +7.71%, and +7.31% [14]