1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, both gold and silver prices rose, hitting new all - time highs. Silver showed particularly strong performance, with a weekly increase of over 18% and a cumulative increase of over 170% this year. The price increase was supported by macro - level factors, fundamental factors, and changes in the price - spread structure [3]. - In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but there are signs of a "short squeeze" in the silver market, so caution is needed regarding the risk of a phased adjustment due to the rapid price increase, especially during the New Year's Day holiday in China this week. It is recommended that existing long positions be gradually closed for profit, and those not yet in the market should wait and see [5]. - In the long term, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid. Factors such as the continuous rise in the US federal government debt, the Fed still in a rate - cut cycle, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by global central banks will support the upward movement of the gold price center [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情及基本面指标跟踪 (Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking) 3.1.1 Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio - Gold prices rose steadily, with the London spot gold at $4532.505 per ounce, up 4.41% from the previous week. The Shanghai gold futures main contract was at 1016.30 yuan per gram, up 3.71% [4]. - Silver prices soared, with the London spot silver at $79.3290 per ounce, up 18.31% from the previous week. The Shanghai silver futures main contract was at 18319 yuan per kilogram, up 19.14% [4]. - The domestic and foreign gold - silver ratios dropped to near 53 and 57 respectively, reaching the lowest levels since 2013, indicating that silver is no longer undervalued compared to gold [3]. 3.1.2 Price - Spread between Futures and Spot - For gold, the basis (TD - futures) was - 6.17 yuan per gram, with a weekly change rate of 14.26%. The internal - external price difference was - 5.91 yuan per gram, with a weekly change rate of 70.32% [4]. - For silver, the basis (TD - futures) was 181 yuan per kilogram, with a weekly change rate of - 796.15%. The internal - external price difference was - 439 yuan per kilogram, with a weekly change rate of - 65.89% [4]. 3.1.3 ETF and CFTC Positions - Gold SPDR - ETF holdings increased by 18.59 tons to 1071.13 tons, a weekly increase of 1.77%. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 10092 contracts to 233978 contracts, a weekly increase of 4.51% [4]. - Silver SLV - ETF holdings increased by 324 tons to 16391 tons, a weekly increase of 2.02%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 8357 contracts to 36352 contracts, a weekly decrease of 18.69% [4]. 3.1.4 Inventory Data - SHFE gold inventory increased by 5.98 tons to 97.692 tons, a weekly increase of 6.52%. COMEX gold inventory increased by 5.76 tons to 1125.67 tons, a weekly increase of 0.51% [4]. - SHFE silver inventory decreased by 80.20 tons to 819 tons, a weekly decrease of 8.92%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 124.39 tons to 13988 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.88%. SGE silver inventory increased by 117.71 tons to 832 tons, a weekly increase of 16.48% [4]. 3.2主要宏观指标跟踪 (Tracking of Major Macroeconomic Indicators) 3.2.1 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index was at 98.0341, down 0.69% from the previous week. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was at 7.0042, down 0.42% [4]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was at 3.4749%, down 0.06% from the previous week. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.1277%, down 0.23% [4]. 3.2.2 Economic Data - The US third - quarter GDP growth was strong, and the consumer confidence index rebounded for the first time in five months [61]. - The US November non - farm payrolls were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate rebounded. Job vacancies increased, and the labor participation rate increased. Wage growth slowed down both month - on - month and year - on - year [66]. - Inflation in the US was relatively controllable. Core commodity inflation rebounded, while core service inflation declined. Consumer inflation expectations rose significantly [68][71]. 3.2.3 Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing and service PMIs in the Eurozone declined, and inflation data in the Eurozone and the UK were also presented [77][78]. 3.2.4 Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months. As of the end of November, China's gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces (about 2305.39 tons), an increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) from the previous month [85]. - Global central banks still maintained net gold purchases. In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased about 633.6 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 12.1%. However, the gold - purchasing demand is expected to remain strong in the future [85].

消息面上，12月29日早间，贵金属市场在短线冲高后直线跳水，其中，现货黄金一度失守4480美元/盎 司，COMEX黄金则一度跌破4500美元关口。东吴证券指出，短期来看，26Q1美国的宽财政（政府停摆 结束）、宽货币（近期75bps降息）与季节性（1-2月非农初值与CPI易超预期）易延缓美联储的降息节 奏，从而抬升利率预期。叠加特朗普计划的2026年4月访华行程，市场风险偏好或进一步改善，从而构 成对金价的利空逻辑。但从中长期来看，特朗普对美联储独立性的干预及美国债务可持续性问题带来的 美元信用风险，仍将令全球央行的购金潮持续。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股普遍走低，截至发稿，紫金黄金国际(02259)跌5.41%，报145.2港元；山东黄 金(01787)跌4.47%，报35.5港元；中国黄金国际(02099)跌4.14%，报155.2港元；赤峰黄金(06693)跌 4.15%，报30.52港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged dramatically, with COMEX silver futures rising over 11% and spot silver increasing over 10%, marking a year-to-date increase of 175%, significantly outpacing gold [1][2] Group 1: Price Surge and Market Dynamics - On December 26, COMEX silver futures closed at $79.68 per ounce, up 11.15%, while spot silver reached $79.196 per ounce, up 10.24% [2] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a structural deficit in the global market, plummeting inventories, and a disconnection in paper trading [1][5] - Industrial demand for silver has risen to account for 50% to 60% of total demand, intensifying concerns among manufacturers due to soaring prices [4] Group 2: Supply Constraints - The solar industry consumes nearly 30% of the annual silver production from mining and recycling [5] - The global silver market has been in a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with physical inventories rapidly depleting [5] - By 2025, global silver demand is projected to reach 1.24 billion ounces, while supply is expected to be only 1.01 billion ounces, indicating a supply gap of 100 to 250 million ounces [5] Group 3: Inventory Decline - Since 2020, COMEX silver inventories have decreased by 70%, and London vault inventories have fallen by 40% [5] - Current demand levels suggest that available silver inventories in some regions can only sustain for 30 to 45 days [5] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Analysts warn that the rapid increase in precious metal prices may not be sustainable, with potential for a significant correction [7] - UBS highlights that the current surge is largely driven by insufficient market liquidity, which could lead to a swift decline [7] - Despite the short-term risks, some analysts maintain a bullish outlook for precious metals in 2026, indicating substantial upside potential [7][8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][51]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: The expectation of monetary easing continues, leading to a sustained increase in gold prices. As of December 26, the COMEX gold futures contract reached $4,562 per ounce, a 4.4% increase month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 1.8% increase to 1,071 tons. The U.S. unemployment rate in November was 4.6%, exceeding the expected 4.5%. The U.S. November unadjusted CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%, while the unadjusted core CPI rose 2.6%, below the expected 3%. These economic data points enhance expectations for monetary easing, which may drive gold prices higher in the long term due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit [3][4][6]. - Industrial Metals: The financial attribute pricing weight is accelerating, and there is optimism for an upward trend in industrial metal prices [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metal Index Trends - As of December 26, 2025, the non-ferrous metal index (000819.SH) closed at 9,309.86 points, a 6.3% increase month-on-month. The precious metal index (801053.SI) closed at 24,539.60 points, up 4.1%. The industrial metal index (801055.SI) closed at 3,433.59 points, up 7.1%. The energy metal index (399366.SZ) closed at 2,752.26 points, up 6.0%. During the same period, the CSI 300 index rose 1.95% [9]. 2. Precious Metals 2.1 Gold - The report highlights the ongoing monetary easing expectations and the resulting upward trend in gold prices, with specific data on price movements and ETF holdings [3][4]. 3. Industrial Metals 3.1 Copper - As of December 26, SHFE copper futures rose 5.95% to 98,720 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 193,600 tons, an increase of 27,800 tons month-on-month. LME copper inventory stood at 157,000 tons. The report indicates that the price elasticity of copper is accelerating due to the increased financial attribute pricing weight and tightening expectations in the fundamental outlook [5][6]. 3.2 Aluminum - As of December 26, SHFE aluminum futures rose 1.0% to 22,405 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 617,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons month-on-month. The report notes that the macroeconomic environment is supportive of aluminum prices, which are expected to maintain a high-level oscillation [5][6]. 3.3 Tin - As of December 26, SHFE tin futures fell 1.3% to 338,600 yuan per ton. Domestic social inventory increased by 186 tons to 9,378 tons. The report mentions supply concerns due to geopolitical issues affecting the Congo and regulatory tightening in Indonesia, leading to a tightening trend in the tin market [5][6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties enhance its safe-haven attributes. For copper, domestic demand is gradually recovering, and there is a long-term demand space opening up globally. For aluminum, the supply-demand dynamics are expected to accelerate, leading to potential price increases [6][48].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a shift from broad-based gains to structural depth, with a clear focus on two main lines: resource sectors and technology [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.31%, while the ChiNext Index saw a slight decline, indicating a "strong Shanghai, weak Shenzhen" market dynamic [1] - The leading sectors include oil and petrochemicals, national defense, and electronics, while utilities, pharmaceuticals, and consumer sectors are declining [1] Group 2: Drivers of Nonferrous Metals - Global liquidity expectations are influencing resource pricing, with the U.S. CPI data reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, benefiting precious metals like gold and silver, as well as copper [2] - The structural reshaping of demand in the new energy sector is providing a growth narrative for traditional industrial metals, with copper being termed the "electrification metal" and aluminum as the "lightweight metal" [2] - The rigid constraints of supply and demand fundamentals are a foundational element for price increases, particularly evident in silver, which has faced a significant supply shortage for five consecutive years [2] - Geopolitical risks and domestic policies are acting as dual catalysts, enhancing the safe-haven value of precious metals while supportive fiscal policies in China provide a potential recovery space for industrial metal demand [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The active nonferrous metals sector is not isolated but aligns with the strong performance of the technology growth sector, indicating two major investment strategies: "buy inflation/revaluation" (resources) and "buy growth/future" (technology) [3] - The upcoming cross-year market is expected to present more structural opportunities than index-based ones, with a focus on identifying where the opportunities lie [3] - Key areas to watch include nonferrous metals with tight supply-demand dynamics (copper, silver), hard technology sectors on the brink of domestic production and new technologies (semiconductor equipment, AI applications), and high-end equipment manufacturing capable of international expansion and upgrades [3]

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.31% and the ChiNext Index falling by 0.32%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 54.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][11]. Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector continued its strong performance, with over 10 stocks hitting the daily limit. Notably, Shenjian Co. achieved an 8-day consecutive limit-up. Other stocks like Zhongchao Holdings and Aerospace Development also saw significant gains [1][11]. - On December 26, the Shanghai Stock Exchange released guidelines for commercial rocket companies, indicating a shift from the cultivation phase to a growth phase for the commercial aerospace industry. Future policies may focus on optimizing industry access and promoting infrastructure sharing [3][12]. Robotics Sector - The robotics sector remained active, with stocks like Fenglong Co. and Wuzhou Xinchun hitting the daily limit. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to establish standards for humanoid robots, which may further stimulate the sector [5][15]. - Companies such as Shengtong Energy and Jiamai Packaging have also shown strong performance, with Shengtong Energy achieving a 12-day consecutive limit-up [1][16]. Carbon Fiber Sector - The carbon fiber sector exhibited strong performance, with stocks like Jilin Chemical Fiber and Heshun Technology hitting the daily limit. The price of carbon fiber products is expected to rise by 10% to 20% starting January 2026, as announced by Toray Industries [7][21]. - Analysts believe that the carbon fiber industry is entering a recovery phase, with a clear differentiation in market competition. High-performance requirements in aerospace and renewable energy sectors are driving demand [7][21]. Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector, particularly silver, saw significant gains, with silver futures rising over 10% and spot silver increasing by more than 1%. Stocks like Hunan Silver and Baiyin Youse hit the daily limit [7][23]. - The main silver futures contract reached a new high of 19,937 yuan per kilogram, reflecting strong market interest [7][23]. Digital Currency Developments - The People's Bank of China has introduced an action plan for digital currency, set to officially launch on January 1, 2026. As of November 2025, digital yuan transactions totaled 34.8 billion, amounting to 16.7 trillion yuan [34].

记者丨金珊 编辑丨吴桂兴 12月29日，早盘A股三大指数涨跌不一，创业板指翻红后再度回落， 截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.31%，深成指涨0.03%，创业板指跌0.32%。 沪 深两市半日成交额1.4万亿，较上个交易日缩量578亿， 全市场超3400只个股下跌。 中泰证券认为，未来两年全球有望进入商业航天产业爆发期，技术迭代加速，发射服务、卫星组网等航天任务需求有望加速释放。中国商业航 天正跨越由"探索验证"迈向"成长爆发"的关键拐点。展望未来，随着政策与产业体系逐步完善，我国商业航天的火箭高频发射能力与卫星规模 化批产能力有望显著增强。 贵金属 板块盘中震荡走强，白银方向领涨，白银有色、湖南白银涨停，兴业银锡、盛达资源、恒邦股份等跟涨。消息面上，沪银主力合约日内 涨超8%，现货白银日内一度涨超5%，盘中均刷新历史高点。 具体板块来看， 商业航天 概念延续强势，10余只成分股涨停，其中神剑股份8连板，金风科技、雷科防务等涨停。 消息面上，12月26日，上 交所公布《上海证券交易所发行上市审核规则适用指引第9号——商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准》，支持正处于大规模商业化关键 时期的商业火箭企业，适用第五套上市标 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the A-share market, highlighting the mixed results of major indices and the active sectors, particularly in computing hardware and commercial aerospace, while noting the decline in several other sectors [3][6]. Market Performance - As of the midday session, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.31% to 3975.92, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.03% to 13607.39. In contrast, the ChiNext Index fell by 0.32% to 3233.53 [4][3]. - Over 3400 stocks in the market experienced declines, indicating a broad downturn despite some sector gains [3][6]. Sector Highlights - The computing hardware industry chain showed strong activity, with CPO and server sectors leading the gains. The commercial aerospace concept continued to perform well, with over ten constituent stocks hitting the daily limit [6]. - Human-like robots, energy metals, and PEEK materials also saw significant increases, while solid-state batteries, SPD, cross-strait integration, and tax refund concepts experienced adjustments [6]. Trading Volume and Trends - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 546 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [6]. - The silver futures market saw a significant rise, with the main contract increasing over 10% to 19937 yuan per kilogram, marking a new high [8][19]. Commodity Movements - The article notes fluctuations in precious metals, with spot silver rising over 1% to 80.16 USD per ounce, while palladium prices dropped nearly 9% to 1750.75 USD per ounce [9][8]. - The carbon fiber sector experienced a surge, with companies like Guangwei Composite and Jilin Carbon Valley rising over 10% following an announcement from Toray regarding price increases for carbon fiber products starting in 2026 [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant rise in the non-ferrous metal sector, with the index and various stocks experiencing notable gains, particularly in silver and copper prices reaching historical highs [1][2]. - The non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) increased by 0.56%, with key stocks such as Silver Holdings (601212) up by 10.05% and Jiangxi Copper (600362) up by 4.68% [1]. - The surge in precious metals, especially silver, is attributed to lower-than-expected inflation data, which has fueled expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 52.34% of the index, with major players including Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [3]. - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index and includes 50 prominent securities from the sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal industry [2][4].

Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.31% to 3975.92 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.03% and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.32% [1] - The North China 50 Index saw a slight increase of 0.11% [1] Trading Volume - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.4078 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 57.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 3400 stocks experienced declines during the trading session [1] Sector Performance - The PEEK materials, brain-computer interface, and precious metals sectors showed significant gains [1] - Conversely, the pharmaceutical commercial, dairy, and battery sectors experienced declines [1]