Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weak [2] - Rolled steel: Weak [2] - Glass: Volatile and weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [2] - CSI 500 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Declining [4] - Gold: Volatile and strong [4] - Silver: Volatile and strong [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Weakly volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Volatile [6] - Palm oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile [7] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and strong [7] - Rubber: Volatile [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Volatile [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The steel industry's stable growth policy from 2025 - 2026 boosts raw material sentiment, and iron ore prices are relatively strong. Short - term iron ore fundamentals have limited contradictions and are expected to fluctuate at high levels following finished products. Coal and coke fundamentals are weakening, and the black sector is in a weakening trend. Rolled steel is in a weak fundamental pattern, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly. [2] - The market as a whole rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and for stock index bulls to increase positions. Treasury bond trends are weakening, and long - position holders should hold lightly. Gold is expected to be volatile and strong due to various factors such as central bank purchases and market uncertainties. [4] - Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate and rise, but the increase may be limited. Log prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and they are expected to be volatile. Meal prices are also expected to be volatile. Live pig prices are expected to rise slightly next week. [6][7] - Rubber supply is tight, and demand and inventory are favorable, so it is expected to be volatile and strong. PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF have different supply - demand and cost situations, with most in a wait - and - see or volatile state. [9] Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The 2025 - 2026 steel industry policy boosts raw material sentiment. The fundamentals have limited contradictions. The "restriction on production" in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has little impact on demand. The global shipment is slightly down, and there is no obvious inventory - building pressure. It is expected to follow finished products and fluctuate at high levels. [2] - **Coal and coke**: Fundamentals are weakening, with inventory accumulation and weakening downstream orders. Supply is increasing, and demand is at a new low since the second quarter. It is expected to be volatile and weak. [2] - **Rolled steel**: In a weak fundamental pattern, supply remains high, and demand has no obvious improvement. It is expected to be weak. [2] - **Glass**: Market sentiment is cooling, and the supply - demand pattern has no obvious improvement. Demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long - term. It is expected to be volatile and weak. [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The market rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and for stock index bulls to increase positions. Different stock indexes have different trends, with some rising and some being volatile. [2][4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is down, and the market has a net capital withdrawal. Treasury bond trends are weakening, and long - position holders should hold lightly. [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and central bank purchases are key. With factors such as the US debt problem and market uncertainties, gold and silver are expected to be volatile and strong. [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost supports the price, but demand improvement is uncertain. The supply - demand pattern shows a double - increase, and the price is expected to fluctuate and rise, but the increase may be limited. [6] - **Logs**: Supply pressure is not large, and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is uncertain. The inventory is declining, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. [6] Oils and Fats and Meals - **Oils and fats**: The supply of raw materials is relatively loose, and the demand for industrial and high - end oil varieties is increasing. They are expected to be volatile. [6] - **Meals**: The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the export situation is not improved. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. They are expected to be volatile. [6][7] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average weight of pigs is decreasing, and the demand for slaughter is increasing. With the start of school, the demand is expected to increase, and prices are expected to rise slightly. [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is tight due to weather conditions, demand is relatively stable, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be volatile and strong. [9] Polyester Sector - **PX**: Geopolitical factors support oil prices, and PX supply - demand turns weak. The price follows oil prices. [9] - **PTA**: Cost support is general, supply decreases, and demand improves. The price follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. [9] - **MEG**: Port inventory is decreasing, supply pressure increases, and it is expected to be in a wide - balance state in the medium - term. The price is supported by low inventory. [9] - **PR**: There is no substantial positive driving force in supply - demand, and it is expected to be range - bound. [9] - **PF**: The supply - demand is weak, but the overnight oil price rise may support the cost. It is expected to be volatile. [9]

Group 1 - Over 1.2 million immigrants have left the U.S. labor market from January to July this year, influenced by the Trump administration's immigration policies [1][3] - Immigrants account for approximately 20% of the U.S. labor force, with significant contributions in agriculture (45%), construction (30%), and service industries (24%) [3] - Immigration enforcement actions have led to disruptions in various sectors, particularly agriculture, resulting in delayed harvests and wasted crops [3][5] Group 2 - The construction industry has seen job losses in nearly half of major metropolitan areas, with the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario area losing 7,200 jobs and the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area losing 6,200 jobs [5] - The healthcare sector may also face challenges due to a reduction in immigrant workers, as approximately 43% of home healthcare workers are immigrants [5][6] - The impact of immigration enforcement on labor supply has hindered construction contractors from hiring capable workers, affecting overall job creation [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial instruments, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price outlooks for each category, suggesting trading strategies based on the analysis. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 11 contract up 1.34%. The oil market is sensitive to geopolitical events. After Q3, due to OPEC+ production increase and weaker demand, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Consider shorting SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel with protective options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and China's ship - fuel sales declined, but domestic refinery production was also low. With crude oil's geopolitical premium and delayed LU supply pressure, both LU and FU strengthened [22]. - **Asphalt**: In the traditional peak season, demand is increasing seasonally, and inventories are decreasing. The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton and is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term. Consider a spread strategy on BU and SC10 [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the off - season, it shows resilience. With rising import costs and rebounding demand, the spot price is up. The high - basis situation persists, and the short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, the US manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, increasing the Fed's rate - cut expectation and boosting precious metals. Hold long positions and focus on US employment data [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices broke through key levels. Short - term prices are affected by the Fed's rate cut, consumption substitution, and capital resonance. Hold short - term long positions and pay attention to call - option premiums [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum was strongly oscillating. Downstream开工率 has been rising seasonally, and inventory is likely to remain low. It will test the resistance at 21000 yuan in the short - term [5]. - **Alumina**: Production capacity is at a historical high, and supply surplus is emerging. The price is weak but may not fall deeply below the high - cost capacity. Watch the support at 2830 - 3000 yuan [6]. - **Zinc**: In September, refinery maintenance will reduce output, and low inventory will drive a short - term rebound. However, the mid - term outlook is bearish, and consider shorting at 2.3 - 2.35 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Due to political unrest in Indonesia, nickel prices rebounded. With inventory declines, the short - term market is oscillating instead of bearish [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin recovered some losses. There is a shortage of concentrates, but watch inventory and capital changes. Hold short - term long positions above 27.1 million [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price declined, and the market was quiet. Inventory changes were mixed. The market is oscillating [12]. - **Polysilicon**: It oscillated below 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot price rose, but actual trading needs attention. The PS2511 price is expected to face pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price rose slightly. Supply surplus will intensify in September, and the price may fall after the short - term rally. Watch the support at 8300 yuan/ton [14]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices rebounded. Rebar demand and production increased, while hot - rolled coil's decreased. Inventory is rising. The market is under pressure, and the decline may slow down. Watch the demand improvement and production restrictions [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight iron ore price rebounded. Global shipments increased, and domestic arrivals also rose. Demand may decline due to the parade. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. - **Coke**: The price oscillated widely. The first round of price cuts was partially implemented, and inventory decreased slightly. The price is under short - term pressure and is highly volatile [17]. - **Coking Coal**: Similar to coke, the price oscillated widely. Production increased slightly, and inventory decreased. It is under short - term pressure and volatile [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. Manganese ore prices may have limited downside. Observe the support at the previous low [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is rising, and demand is fair. Inventory is slightly decreasing [20]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: MSC announced empty - sailing plans for the Golden Week. The spot price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited. The market is expected to oscillate and be affected by other alliances' plans [21]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The futures price oscillated. Daily production decreased slightly, and inventory increased. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. - **Methanol**: Coastal available supply is abundant, and inventory is rising. However, with downstream demand expected to increase, the market outlook is optimistic [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price rebounded. Supply increased, and demand was weak. The market may improve in Q3. Watch downstream demand and oil prices [27]. - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene cannot support styrene effectively. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is rising [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene production inventory is controllable, but downstream acceptance is limited. Polyethylene demand is mixed, and polypropylene supply pressure is increasing [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory is rising. It may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda is supported by demand but may face supply pressure later, with a wide - range oscillation expected [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Prices oscillated at a low level. Demand is improving, but the actual supply - demand situation has limited improvement. Watch device operations, oil prices, and polyester load [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillated around 4350 yuan/ton. Supply increased, and demand was stable but weakening. Watch new capacity and policy changes [32]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber supply - demand is stable, and it may be bullish in the medium - term if demand improves. Bottle - chip has over - capacity issues [33]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Due to Sino - US trade uncertainties, the soybean meal market may oscillate in the short - term. It may be bullish in the medium - to long - term, but pay attention to supply in Q1 next year [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Prices rebounded after a short - term decline. Consider buying at low prices in the long - term, but manage risks [38]. - **Soybean (Domestic)**: The price rebounded as short - positions were reduced. Policy auctions increased supply, and new beans will be on the market soon. Watch the new - bean price [39]. - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak. Feed companies may build inventory at 2150 yuan/ton. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, the price may be weak at the bottom [40]. - **Pig**: Spot prices were mixed, and futures prices were weak. Supply may increase in September, but demand may also rise during holidays. Prices may face downward pressure [41]. - **Egg**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices rebounded. The industry is in capacity reduction, and consider long - positions in far - term contracts [42]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell due to better weather. Chinese cotton may oscillate, with support below and limited upside in the short - term. Consider buying on dips [43]. - **Sugar**: US sugar may face pressure, and the domestic market has limited upside. The price is expected to oscillate [44]. - **Apple**: The price oscillated at a high level. Early - maturing apples had high prices, but supply may be stable. Short - term price may rise, but be cautious in the long - term [45]. - **Wood**: The price oscillated. Supply may remain low, and inventory pressure is small. Wait and see for now [46]. - **Pulp**: The futures price rose slightly. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. Adopt a wait - and - see or range - trading strategy [47]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: The stock market oscillated, and futures contracts showed different trends. There are short - term macro uncertainties. Increase allocation in technology - growth sectors and also consider consumption and cyclical sectors [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures oscillated flat. US employment data and Fed's stance affect the market. Consider curve - steepening strategies in short - term hedging [49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Domestic policies for boosting service consumption and real - estate are being advanced, but their effects remain to be seen; the US manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement, and attention should be paid to US employment and inflation data, as well as the global credit "crisis" hype [2] - The core contradiction of the RMB exchange rate lies in the rhythm control; short - term return to the "6 era" is less likely, and it is more likely to gradually repair towards a reasonable equilibrium [4] - Global debt risks weaken market risk appetite, and the stock index may enter a short - term shock adjustment phase [5] - The bond market may rebound if the A - share market remains high - level volatile; a band - trading strategy is recommended for bonds [6] - The shipping index may fluctuate or decline slightly, considering the downward trend of Maersk's new - week opening quotes [8] - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and remain strong in the short - term; a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11] - Copper may continue to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision; a low - level procurement strategy is recommended for the medium - term [13][14] - Zinc is expected to be strong at the bottom and fluctuate in the short - term [16] - Nickel and stainless - steel markets' sentiment has cooled; stainless - steel has upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals [17] - Tin may remain strong despite a slight decline, supported by tight supply [18][19] - The lithium carbonate market is in a shock - adjustment phase; its future trend depends on downstream actual demand [20] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a high - level shock state; industrial silicon may rise in the long - term due to the dry - season impact, and polysilicon's shock pattern may continue [22] - Lead is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range with limited upside and downside [24] - Steel products' fundamentals are weak; the downward space of iron ore is limited; coal - coke may fluctuate widely at a high level; silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [25][27][29][30] - Crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors; it is in a weak shock state, and attention should be paid to the September events and the Russia - Ukraine situation [33] - LPG is expected to fluctuate, affected by multiple factors such as the OPEC+ meeting [36] - PX - TA is expected to fluctuate with the cost; a strategy of narrowing the PTA01 processing fee is recommended [39] - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate within a range; a strategy of buying on dips or selling put options is recommended [42] - Methanol's port inventory is increasing; a small - amount long - position and selling put - option strategy is recommended [44][45] - PP's future trend depends on downstream demand growth; currently, its upward and downward drivers are limited [48] - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand; it is expected to fluctuate at present [50] - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to fluctuate weakly; short - term short - selling of styrene is not recommended [51][52] - Fuel oil is pushed by cost; its downward pressure remains; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for long - position allocation; asphalt mainly follows cost fluctuations; rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly [53][54][56] - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand; glass is in a weak - balance to weak - surplus state; caustic soda's downstream demand is increasing and its inventory is decreasing [59][61][62] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Global long - term bonds had a "black September"; the US manufacturing PMI showed marginal improvement, with new orders improving and the price index falling again [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated; the pound fell sharply; the US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected [3] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated with volume; global debt risks weakened market risk appetite; the index may enter a shock - adjustment phase [5] Treasury Bond - Treasury bonds weakened; the bond market may rebound if the A - share market remains high - level volatile; a band - trading strategy is recommended [6] Container Shipping - The container shipping index futures prices rose; MSC planned to cancel some voyages; the index may fluctuate or decline [7][8] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose; long - term funds increased their holdings; key data and events this week are worthy of attention; a long - position strategy is recommended [9][10][11] Copper - Copper prices were slightly stronger; the price may oscillate before the Fed's interest - rate decision; a low - level procurement strategy is recommended [12][13][14] Zinc - Zinc prices were strong at the bottom; the supply was in surplus, and the demand might improve; a short - term shock - at - bottom view is held [16] Nickel and Stainless - Steel - Nickel prices fell slightly, and stainless - steel prices were strong; the market sentiment cooled; stainless - steel had upward momentum [17] Tin - Tin prices fell slightly; the supply was tight, and the price may remain strong [18][19] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices fell; the market entered a shock - adjustment phase; the future trend depends on downstream demand [19][20] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices were in a high - level shock; industrial silicon may rise in the long - term, and polysilicon may continue to shock [21][22] Lead - Lead prices fluctuated within a narrow range; the supply was weak, and the demand was in a "not - booming in peak - season" state [24] Black Building Materials Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel products' prices were in short - term equilibrium; the supply was high, and the demand was weak; the market may be in a negative - feedback stage [25] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rebounded; the steel industry was in a weak - stable state; the iron ore's downward space may be limited [27] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices oscillated; the supply was relatively loose; the future trend depends on downstream demand [29] Silicon - Iron and Silicon - Manganese - Silicon - iron and silicon - manganese prices were at the bottom; the supply was loose, and the demand was weak; a long - spread strategy is recommended [30][31] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose; geopolitical factors affected the price; the oil market was in a weak shock state [32][33] LPG - LPG prices fluctuated; the supply was loose, and the demand was stable; the future trend depends on the OPEC+ meeting [35][36] PTA - PX - PX and PTA prices fluctuated with the cost; the supply of PX may increase, and the PTA processing fee is recommended to be narrowed [37][39] MEG - Bottle Chip - Ethylene glycol prices fell; the supply may decrease slightly, and the demand was seasonal; a range - trading strategy is recommended [41][42] Methanol - Methanol prices were stable; the port inventory increased; a long - position strategy is recommended [43][44][45] PP - PP prices fell slightly; the supply increased, and the demand was uncertain; the future trend depends on downstream demand [47][48] PE - PE prices fell slightly; the supply decreased, and the demand increased; the market may oscillate [49][50] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene prices fell; the supply and demand of pure benzene were balanced, and styrene's supply may increase in the future; a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [51][52] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose; the supply increased, and the demand was stable; the price may be suppressed by the spot market [53][54] Asphalt - Asphalt prices rose and then fell; the supply was stable, and the demand was affected by rain; the price mainly followed the cost [55][56] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Rubber prices were strong; the supply may increase, and the demand may turn warm; the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [57][58] Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices fell slightly; the supply was high, and the demand was weak; glass prices fell slightly; the supply may increase, and the demand was weak; caustic soda prices fell; the supply decreased slightly, and the demand increased [59][61][62]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Gold futures prices have strongly broken through, with London spot gold surpassing the $3,500 per ounce mark and COMEX gold futures hitting a new high. Multiple institutions predict that after a four - month consolidation, precious metals may start a new upward trend. Morgan Stanley has set the year - end target price of gold at $3,800 per ounce [1]. - In 2025, domestic liquidity remains loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. The external risks are gradually easing, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increases, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue [3][9][10]. 3. Summaries by Catalog a. Key Varieties - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, and gold shows a convergent breakthrough. Trump's attempt to fire Fed governors and the USGS's proposal on silver import tariffs, along with dovish signals from the Fed and weak employment data, are positive for precious metals. However, inflation rebound, geopolitical risk reduction, and other factors limit the upside of gold. In the long - term, gold is still supported [2][18]. - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined. The previous trading day saw index differentiation, with small and medium - cap stocks correcting significantly. The domestic market has a high probability of continued market trends, but one needs to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. Different indexes have different characteristics in terms of risk and return [3][9][10]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the copper price may fluctuate within a range [3][19]. b. Main News on the Day - **International News**: Trump's government will request the Supreme Court to expedite the ruling on the global tariff case to overturn the federal court's decision that multiple tariffs are illegal. Market analysts believe that corporate bond issuance and budget concerns in developed countries are the main reasons for the stock market decline [4]. - **Domestic News**: China will expand the scope of visa - free countries, implementing a visa - free policy for Russian ordinary passport holders from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [5]. - **Industry News**: In August 2025, there were 2.65 million new A - share accounts, a year - on - year and month - on - month significant increase [6]. c. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on September 1 and 2, 2025, including the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, etc. [7] d. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined, and the domestic market has a high probability of continued trends, with different indexes having different risk - return characteristics [9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The market funds are loosening, and the equity market is volatile. The stock - bond seesaw effect continues, and one should pay attention to the impact of the equity market on the bond market [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose at night. Geopolitical factors affect oil exports, and the OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. One should follow up on OPEC's production increase [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate and coal - to - olefin plant operating rate changed, and the coastal inventory is at a relatively high level. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [13]. - **Other Energy and Chemical Products**: Rubber may continue to correct in the short term; polyolefin prices are generally weak; glass and soda ash futures are weak, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and consumption in autumn [14][16][17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, with multiple factors influencing their trends, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payroll data [18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night, with multiple factors affecting it, and it may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Other Metals**: Zinc may fluctuate weakly within a range; the short - term trend of lithium carbonate is affected by emotions, and one should be cautious about short - selling; iron ore is expected to be bullish in the medium - term; the steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand; double - coking products are in a high - level oscillation state; protein meal is expected to fluctuate narrowly; oils and fats are expected to continue to oscillate; sugar and cotton are expected to maintain an oscillating trend; the container shipping European line may oscillate in the short term [20][22][23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend with different performances in various sectors. Some sectors are influenced by macro - policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals. For example, the capital market is supported by policies, but short - term fluctuations may occur. In the bond market, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but short - term oscillations are likely. In the commodity market, different metals, energy, and agricultural products have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Message**: Two departments clarify tax policies for state - owned equity and cash income transferred to enrich social security funds; Musk says Optimus robots may be widely used in the next few years; Yushu Technology plans to submit an IPO application in Q4; US and UK bond yields rise [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: Different basis ratios are presented for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts [3]. - **Trading Logic**: The policy is supportive of the capital market. After recent continuous rises, short - term market fluctuations may intensify, but the general strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts declined. There are news about visa - free policies for Russia and high UK bond yields. The central bank conducted 2557 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1501 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: Although the manufacturing PMI improved in August but remained below the boom - bust line, and exports may face pressure. With loose funds and weak domestic demand recovery, interest rates are expected to decline, but the bond market may oscillate in the short - term [4][5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver prices rose. The weak US economic data and potential Fed policy changes supported precious metal prices. - **Outlook**: The Fed may enter an unexpected interest - rate cut cycle, which will be beneficial to precious metals. Silver may outperform gold, and the strategy is to go long on silver on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic copper supply pressure was relieved by factors such as tight scrap supply and smelting maintenance. - **Outlook**: With a high probability of Fed rate cuts and strong price support, copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices rose. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory was relatively low, and demand was marginally improving. - **Outlook**: With a dovish Fed signal, aluminum prices are supported. Attention should be paid to inventory changes, and prices may rise if the inventory turns [11]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed a low - level oscillation. Zinc concentrate inventory increased seasonally, and social inventory of zinc ingots continued to rise. - **Outlook**: Despite high Fed rate - cut expectations, the industry is in an oversupply situation, and zinc prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices were expected to strengthen. Lead concentrate inventory decreased, and supply was marginally reduced. - **Outlook**: With high Fed rate - cut expectations, lead prices are expected to run strongly [13][14]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices were weakly oscillating. Nickel iron prices were expected to be stable and strong, and the supply of intermediate products was tight. - **Outlook**: With positive macro - atmosphere and potential policy support, nickel prices have limited downside space. The strategy is to go long on dips [15]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated. Supply decreased significantly due to slow mine复产 and planned smelter maintenance, while demand was in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: Lithium carbonate prices continued to decline. There was a lack of positive drivers, and the market was in a weak adjustment. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to overseas supply and industrial news. The price reference range for the 2511 contract is 70,000 - 74,500 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices rose slightly. Ore supply was disturbed, and futures inventory increased. - **Outlook**: After a sharp decline, the downside space is limited. The strategy is to wait and see. The reference range for the AO2601 contract is 2900 - 3300 yuan/ton [18][19]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices were strong. Concerns about nickel supply and approaching traditional consumption seasons supported prices. - **Outlook**: With the approaching of the consumption season, demand is expected to increase, and prices may rise [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose slightly. The market was transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and costs were supportive. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to run at a high level in the short - term [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Rebar prices rose slightly, and hot - rolled coil prices declined slightly. Production was high, demand was weak, and inventory was accumulating. - **Outlook**: If demand does not improve, prices may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to raw material prices and production restrictions [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Overseas shipments increased, and steel production decreased. - **Outlook**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the impact of steel mill restrictions [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices were stable. Production was high, inventory decreased, and demand was weak. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and may rise if policies are favorable [27][28]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices were stable. Production increased, inventory decreased, and demand was average. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and may rise in the long - term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon prices were weakly oscillating, and ferrosilicon prices declined slightly. - **Outlook**: With the weakening of "anti - involution" sentiment, prices are expected to move towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak before mid - October, and the strategy is to wait and see [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices declined slightly. Supply was increasing, demand was weak, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [32][33]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined slightly. Supply was increasing, and the market was in a "weak reality, strong expectation" situation. Prices are expected to fluctuate highly, and may rise if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU oscillated. Weather in Thailand may push prices up, and there are different views on supply and demand. - **Strategy**: A long - term bullish view. In the short - term, a bullish approach is recommended, and partial closing of the long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 position is suggested [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices rose. Geo - political premiums disappeared, but prices were undervalued. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view, but avoid chasing high prices [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply was increasing, demand was weak, and the market was in a weak state. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [42][43]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices rose. Supply decreased, demand was mainly from exports, and inventory was high. - **Strategy**: A long - position at low prices is recommended [44]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene prices declined, and the basis strengthened. Supply was increasing, demand was improving seasonally, and inventory was high. - **Outlook**: Prices may rebound after inventory decreases [45]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices declined. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and exports were expected to decline. - **Strategy**: A short - position is recommended [47]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: EG prices declined. Supply was increasing, demand was recovering from the off - season, and inventory was expected to increase in the medium - term. - **Outlook**: Prices may decline in the medium - term [48][49]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply was undergoing de - stocking, demand was improving, and processing fees were affected. - **Outlook**: A long - position at low prices following PX is recommended [50]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: PX prices declined. Supply was high, downstream PTA had many unexpected maintenance, and inventory was expected to be low. - **Outlook**: A long - position at low prices following crude oil is recommended [51]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE prices declined. Cost support exists, supply is limited, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. - **Outlook**: Prices may oscillate upwards [52]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP prices declined. Supply pressure is high, demand is rebounding seasonally, and inventory pressure is high. - **Strategy**: A long - position on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices is recommended [53]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices showed mixed trends. Supply may be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support prices. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, pay attention to low - level rebounds, and consider a far - month reverse spread [55]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable. Supply was high, demand was average, and market sentiment was pessimistic. - **Strategy**: A short - position on the near - month contract on rebounds and a reverse spread are recommended [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans declined, and domestic soybean meal rebounded slightly. Inventory is high, and de - stocking depends on the inflection point of processing volume and arrivals. - **Strategy**: A long - position at low prices within the cost range is recommended [57][58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Three major domestic oils rebounded. Indian palm oil imports were large, and there are multiple factors supporting prices. - **Strategy**: Palm oil may rise in Q4 due to the B50 policy. An oscillating and strengthening view is taken before inventory accumulates and demand feedback is negative [59][60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices oscillated. The global sugar gap is expected to narrow, and domestic supply may increase. - **Strategy**: A bearish view is maintained. The downward space depends on the performance of the external market [61][62]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline, and domestic inventory is low. - **Outlook**: Prices may oscillate at a high level in the short - term [63].

Core Insights - The report highlights the profitability pressure faced by the North Exchange in Q2 2025, primarily due to overseas disturbances and high fixed asset growth, with a forecasted turning point in the second half of the year [3][8]. - The technology manufacturing sector is leading the growth, driven by a combination of cyclical recovery and AI industry trends, while consumer sectors show a mixed performance [3][8]. - The report suggests three strategies to identify high-growth opportunities: selecting companies with sustained revenue growth, those with upward revisions in profit forecasts, and those with high contract liabilities and advance payments [3][8]. Summary by Sections Profitability Analysis - As of Q2 2025, the North Exchange reported a revenue growth rate of +4.9% and a net profit growth rate of -16.6%, indicating significant profitability challenges [8]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to a sharp drop in export growth to the U.S., with over 50% of companies experiencing negative net profit growth [8]. - Fixed asset growth reached a historical high of +30.2%, contributing to the pressure on profitability, with a gross margin of 22.4% [8]. Industry Structure - The technology manufacturing sector is experiencing high growth, with key industries such as computing, telecommunications, and electrical equipment showing positive trends [8]. - The report notes a structural recovery in midstream manufacturing, particularly in traditional robotics and engineering machinery, alongside emerging industries [8]. - Consumer sectors are experiencing a mixed recovery, with agriculture and forestry showing potential for improvement [8]. Investment Strategies - The report recommends identifying companies with consistent upward trends in revenue and net profit growth over the past four quarters, highlighting specific companies like Kaiter and Fujida [3][8]. - It also suggests focusing on companies with upward revisions in profit forecasts, such as Shuguang Shuchuang and Naconoer, which have seen significant increases in expected net profit growth [3][8]. - Companies with high contract liabilities and advance payments, like Kangnong Agriculture and Kun工科技, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3][8].

Group 1 - The company, Ascentage Pharma, announced plans to hold a semi-annual performance briefing on September 10, 2025, from 10:00 to 11:00 [2]

Group 1 - Indian Prime Minister Modi's recent diplomatic approach at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit has garnered global attention, showcasing a rare "warm diplomacy" stance [1] - Modi's 50-minute discussion with Russian President Putin and his public support for SCO expansion and de-dollarization indicate India's strategic maneuvering between the US and China [1] - The announcement of 400 Indian soldiers participating in the US-India joint military exercise "War Games 2025" reflects India's rapid shift in foreign policy after engaging with China and Russia [1] Group 2 - The economic relationship between India and the US is crucial, with the US being India's largest export market, accounting for approximately 18% of India's total exports [2] - India's trade dynamics are under pressure due to increased tariffs imposed by the US, leading to significant economic stress for India [2] - Trump's social media comments suggesting India has compromised on tariff issues have added psychological pressure on India, revealing its dilemma between economic interests and strategic autonomy [2] Group 3 - Trump's pressure tactics aim to force India into concessions, particularly in agriculture and dairy markets, which are vital for millions of Indian farmers [4] - The US's strong stance on India's procurement of Russian oil complicates India's position in international negotiations, as the US seeks to leverage India against China [4] - India is likely to accelerate its "diversification strategy" to reduce dependence on a single market, which poses risks to national security and economic stability [4] Group 4 - India's diplomatic positioning will become increasingly significant in the coming months and years, as it navigates pressures from both domestic and external sources [6] - The ability of the Modi government to maintain economic interests and national security while avoiding control by major powers will be a critical test [6] - The evolving international landscape necessitates that India continuously adjusts its strategies to find a sustainable path in a multipolar world [6]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks, particularly high-dividend stocks like CITIC Limited, reflects a strong market recognition of the company's low valuation and high dividend policy, indicating a reassessment of its profitability and growth potential [1][3][17]. Group 1: Southbound Fund Inflows - As of September 1, 2023, southbound funds have flowed into Hong Kong stocks amounting to approximately 990.9 billion HKD this year [1]. - CITIC Limited has seen its holdings by Hong Kong Stock Connect reach 1.295 billion shares, accounting for 26.31% of its free float, up from 15.37% at the beginning of the year [1][3]. - The stock has experienced a year-to-date increase of about 27%, with a market capitalization of 328.2 billion HKD, nearly doubling over the past four years [3]. Group 2: Dividend Policy and Valuation - CITIC Limited's dividend policy is highlighted as a benchmark, with cumulative dividends exceeding 140 billion RMB and a rolling dividend yield of 5.44%, significantly above the market average [4]. - The actual dividend payout ratio for 2024 is set to increase to 27.5%, with plans to exceed 30% by 2026 [6]. - Despite the stock price increase, the company's valuation remains low, with a price-to-book ratio of only 0.39 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.2, well below the industry median of 9.1 [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, CITIC Limited reported revenues of 368.8 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.2 billion RMB, with a core operating profit growth of 0.4% year-on-year [6]. - The financial services segment remains a cornerstone, contributing 37.9% of total revenue, with a net profit of 28.4 billion RMB, reflecting a 1.8% increase [8]. - CITIC Bank has shown resilience with a net profit of 36.5 billion RMB, up 2.8%, despite industry challenges [8]. Group 4: Business Structure and Innovation - The company employs a "financial + industrial" dual-drive model, which has been key to maintaining performance stability [7]. - CITIC Limited is actively pursuing technological innovation, establishing a "2+4+N" innovation matrix to enhance its research and development capabilities [12]. - The internationalization strategy has led to a 15% increase in overseas revenue, with overseas assets growing by 5.79% [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue leveraging its dual-drive model to enhance its global influence and operational resilience [17]. - With ongoing technological advancements and international expansion, CITIC Limited is positioned to deliver sustainable returns to investors [17].