证券研究报告 印度宣布焦煤为战略性矿产， 看好焦煤弹性 ——煤炭行业周报（1月第4周） 2026年2月1日 行业评级：看好 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑赢沪深300指数：截至2026年1月30日，本周中信煤炭行业收涨3.98%，沪深300指数上涨0.08%，跑赢沪深300指数3.9个百分点。全板块整周30只股价上涨，6 只下跌，1只持平。陕西黑猫涨幅最高，整周涨幅为14.5%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2026年1月23日-2026年1月29日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为758万吨，周环比增加0.9%，年同比增加59.6%。其中，动力煤周日 均销量较上周增加1.5%，炼焦煤销量较上周减少2.7%，无烟煤销量较上周增加0.4%。截至2026年1月29日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为753万吨，周环比增加1.5%，年同比增加 56.5%；重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2225万吨，周环比减少1.5%，年同比减少25.2%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.08% this week, while the CSI 300 Index futures rose by 0.11%[1] - The yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 1.81%[1] - The yield on wealth management products from joint-stock banks settled at 1.85%, while the annualized yield of Yu'ebao remained at 1.00%[1] Asset Performance - Futures for coking coal rose by 2.75%, and iron ore futures increased by 0.13% this week[1] - The commodity futures index increased by 5.71% this week, indicating strong performance in the commodity sector[6] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.40% to 97.12, while international oil prices surged by 7.65% to $65.74 per barrel[4] Investment Strategy - The recommended asset allocation order is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[4] - The outlook for stocks is positive, with an emphasis on the implementation of "incremental" policies[2] - Bonds are underweighted due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond "teeter-totter" effect[2] Economic Indicators - In December, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 5.3% year-on-year, reversing a decline from November[4] - The total fiscal revenue for 2025 was 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, while fiscal expenditure increased by 1% to 28.74 trillion yuan[18] Risks and Considerations - Global inflation may rise again, and there is a risk of unexpected economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[4] - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, which could impact market stability[2]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容 而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 ( 在中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司 ) (股份代碼: 01171) 內幕消息 關於掛牌轉讓全資子公司100%股權的公告 兗礦能源集團股份有限公司（「本公司」，連同其附屬公司，統稱「本集團」）根據香港聯合交易所 有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則（「香港上市規則」）第13.09(2)條以及香港法例第571章證 券及期貨條例第XIVA部項下內幕消息條文（定義見香港上市規則條文）刊發本公告。 兗礦能源集團股份有限公司 YANKUANG ENERGY GROUP COMPANY LIMITED* 交易情況概述 本公司全資子公司兗礦能源（鄂爾多斯）有限公司在山東產權交易中心公開掛牌轉讓內蒙古鑫泰煤 炭有限公司（「鑫泰煤炭」）100%股權（「本次股權掛牌」），具體掛牌信息可通過山東產權交易中心 官網查詢，網址如下： （http://www.sdcqjy.com/proj/tc/9c4f1bfb4d5e4b ...

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Positive" and the recommendation is maintained [5]. Core Viewpoints - The value of "call options" in the coal sector is gaining attention, with expectations that coal prices may rise beyond current market reactions due to overseas disturbances [3][8]. - The valuation of quality coal companies is expected to evolve towards a "debt-like" structure combined with "coal price call options," indicating potential for price increases [3][8]. - The coal sector has shown resilience, with the coal mining index rising 7.6% since the beginning of 2026, outperforming both the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index [8][60]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088, Buy), China Coal Energy (601898, Buy), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225, Buy), and Jinneng Holding (601001, Buy) [3][63]. Industry Fundamentals - The coal inventory at ports has significantly decreased, with a reported drop to 24.66 million tons as of January 30, 2026, a decrease of 6.2% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year [8][36]. - The price of low-sulfur coking coal has increased to 1,630 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 12 RMB/ton and a year-on-year increase of 290 RMB/ton [8][22]. - The coal mining operating rate is at a median level for the same period, indicating stable supply conditions [27][28]. Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port has shown a recovery, while the prices of imported coal from Australia and Indonesia have also increased [8][22][20]. - The overall energy prices, including oil and gas, have risen significantly, with European natural gas prices up 37% and Brent crude oil prices up 16% since the beginning of the year [8][22]. Market Performance - The coal sector has consistently outperformed the broader market indices, with the coal mining index showing a 7.6% increase compared to the 1.7% and 4.5% increases in the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices, respectively [8][60]. - The current price-to-book ratio (PB) for the coal industry is 1.52, indicating a historically low relative valuation compared to the broader market [8][60].

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a chaotic state, with major indices showing little decline while most individual stocks are significantly down, leading to investor frustration [1] - On January 26, 2026, despite minor index declines, over 3,700 stocks fell, while resource stocks like gold and coal surged, indicating a lack of coherent market direction [1][3] Capital Flow Dynamics - The chaotic market reflects intense but disorganized capital battles among several key sectors, including high-position cyclical stocks and technology growth sectors [3][4] - High-position cyclical stocks, particularly in non-ferrous metals, saw significant price fluctuations driven by speculative capital, leading to market panic when these stocks dropped [3][4] - Funds exiting high-position stocks did not disappear but shifted towards technology sectors like semiconductors and AI, which are supported by clear industrial policies, although this transition was weak due to overall market fear [4][5] Investment Behavior - As high-position and growth sectors underperformed, some funds moved towards undervalued stocks in sectors like liquor, real estate, and finance for safety, but this was more of a technical rebound rather than a fundamental recovery [5][10] - The current market is characterized by a "stock selection" approach rather than a focus on index performance, emphasizing the importance of individual stock value assessments [13] Market Sentiment and Valuation - The extreme volatility is exacerbated by a lack of new capital entering the market, leading to a "stockholder's game" where existing funds are aggressively reallocated, causing erratic price movements [6][8] - Many high-flying stocks have reached historical valuation peaks, creating bubbles that are vulnerable to rapid declines upon any negative news, while traditional sectors remain undervalued but lack growth expectations [8][9] Sector Analysis - For high-position cyclical products like non-ferrous metals and precious metals, the risk-reward ratio has deteriorated significantly, making further investment risky [9] - In contrast, sectors like semiconductors and robotics, despite recent adjustments, have strong long-term growth prospects supported by domestic demand and favorable policies, presenting potential investment opportunities [11] Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully, maintain a comfortable cash reserve, and avoid impulsive trading behaviors in a volatile market [13][14] - A balanced investment strategy should include both growth sectors with clear performance expectations and stable dividend-paying stocks to mitigate volatility [14][16] - Reducing trading frequency and focusing on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term market fluctuations is recommended for navigating the current market environment [16] Broader Market Context - The Hong Kong stock market is showing different characteristics, with technology indices at historically low valuations and increasing international capital interest, providing an alternative investment avenue [16]

兖矿能源（600188）(600188.SH)发布公告，公司全资子公司兖矿能源(鄂尔多斯)有限公司在山东产权交 易中心公开挂牌转让内蒙古鑫泰煤炭有限公司("鑫泰煤炭")100%股权，挂牌底价为6.7亿元。若本次交 易最终达成，预计将对公司2026年归属于母公司股东的净利润产生较大影响。 ...

智通财经APP讯，兖矿能源(600188.SH)发布公告，公司全资子公司兖矿能源(鄂尔多斯)有限公司在山东 产权交易中心公开挂牌转让内蒙古鑫泰煤炭有限公司("鑫泰煤炭")100%股权，挂牌底价为6.7亿元。若 本次交易最终达成，预计将对公司2026年归属于母公司股东的净利润产生较大影响。 ...

Group 1 - February macro outlook indicates a favorable macro environment for equity markets, with expectations of strong economic and credit data at the beginning of the year [7][9] - The strategy outlook suggests a transition in market styles, with a focus on growth "rest" and a continued bullish stance while adjusting portfolio structures [9][10] - The quantitative strategy emphasizes investing in small-cap stocks and taking long positions before the Spring Festival [10] Group 2 - The February gold stock selection includes companies from various sectors: - Electronics: Shiyun Circuit, Shengkong Co. - Consumer Electronics: Baiwei Storage - Computing: Yunsai Zhiliang - Communication: Kexin Innovation Source - Non-ferrous Metals: Shengtun Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum - Machinery: Zhonglian Heavy Industry - Coal: Huaibei Mining - Non-bank Financials: Dongfang Securities [12][14] - The rationale for selected stocks includes: - Shiyun Circuit is expected to benefit from emerging fields such as commercial aerospace and intelligent driving, potentially leading to significant growth [13] - Shengkong Co. is positioned to gain from the semiconductor cycle, with demand driven by AI and storage needs [17] - Baiwei Storage is set to capitalize on the AI infrastructure boom, with a focus on domestic market share growth [20] - Yunsai Zhiliang is anticipated to see increased demand for cloud services and IDC, driven by AI advancements [22] - Kexin Innovation Source is expected to achieve breakthroughs in the AI liquid cooling market, enhancing revenue and profitability [26] - Shengtun Mining is projected to improve profitability through copper price increases and strategic acquisitions [31] - Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to benefit from increased copper and cobalt production, alongside new gold mining projects [35] - Zhonglian Heavy Industry is positioned for growth through diversification in machinery sectors and global expansion [40] - Huaibei Mining is highlighted for its high elasticity in coking coal, with price improvements expected in 2026 [46] - Dongfang Securities is set to benefit from regulatory support and potential mergers, enhancing its market position [49]

格隆汇2月1日丨兖矿能源(600188.SH)公告，经总经理办公会审议批准，兖矿能源集团股份有限公司("公 司")全资子公司——兖矿能源(鄂尔多斯)有限公司在山东产权交易中心公开挂牌转让内蒙古鑫泰煤炭有 限公司("鑫泰煤炭")100%股权。 本次股权挂牌底价为67,001万元。截至上述挂牌期满，意向受让方超过两名，根据产权交易规则，山东 产权交易中心于2026年1月30日组织网络竞价。网络竞价交易系统显示最高报价为305,001万元。若本次 交易最终达成，预计将对公司2026年归属于母公司股东的净利润产生较大影响。具体影响尚需根据最终 成交结果、有关交易费用、相关经审计的财务数据确定。 ...

格隆汇2月1日丨兖矿能源(600188.SH)公告，经总经理办公会审议批准，兖矿能源集团股份有限公司("公 司")全资子公司——兖矿能源(鄂尔多斯)有限公司在山东产权交易中心公开挂牌转让内蒙古鑫泰煤炭有 限公司("鑫泰煤炭")100%股权。 本次股权挂牌底价为67,001万元。截至上述挂牌期满，意向受让方超过两名，根据产权交易规则，山东 产权交易中心于2026年1月30日组织网络竞价。网络竞价交易系统显示最高报价为305,001万元。若本次 交易最终达成，预计将对公司2026年归属于母公司股东的净利润产生较大影响。具体影响尚需根据最终 成交结果、有关交易费用、相关经审计的财务数据确定。 ...