Market Overview - On January 26, the market experienced fluctuations with significant divergence between large and small indices, where the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices opened high but closed down over 1% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 163 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market saw over 3,700 stocks decline, with only 79 stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains, particularly the precious metals concept, with notable performances from Sichuan Gold, which achieved four limit-ups in eight days, and Zijin Mining reaching a historical high [1] - The oil and gas sector also showed strength, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation hitting a historical high and Intercontinental Oil & Gas achieving three limit-ups in four days [1] - The chemical sector experienced a rebound, with stocks like Hongbaoli and Chengxing Co. hitting the limit up [1] - Conversely, the commercial aerospace and semiconductor equipment sectors faced significant declines, with several commercial aerospace stocks hitting the limit down [1] Limit-Up and Limit-Down Stocks - A total of 70 stocks hit the limit up today (excluding ST and delisted stocks), with 15 stocks on consecutive limit-ups [1] - Key stocks included Baiyin Nonferrous Metals with five consecutive limit-ups and Sichuan Gold with four limit-ups in eight days [1][9] Related Hotspots - The precious metals sector continues to rise, with gold prices in New York surpassing $5,100 and silver prices exceeding $109 [11] - In the AI sector, major companies like Tencent and Baidu have initiated cash red envelope activities for the Spring Festival, indicating a competitive landscape in AI applications [12] - The robotics sector saw a partnership announcement between China Central Television and Magic Atom for the 2026 Spring Festival Gala [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rose 2.08% last week, with precious metals leading the increase at 9.08%, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals rising 2.96% and 1.95% respectively, while agricultural products and black metals slightly declined by 0.04% and 0.53% [2][7]. - The US PCE data rebounded slightly, cooling the interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index significantly corrected last week, and the easing of the Greenland conflict boosted market risk appetite. The uncertainty brought by the Iranian situation is beneficial to precious metals and energy - chemicals, and the short - term commodity market may fluctuate strongly [2]. - In the short term, precious metals will continue to fluctuate upward, but need to beware of post - overbought corrections; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate strongly; black metals may fluctuate; energy prices may rebound but with limited space; the chemical industry may fluctuate strongly; and agricultural products may also fluctuate strongly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 2.08% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 9.08%, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals rose 2.96% and 1.95% respectively, while agricultural products and black metals slightly declined by 0.04% and 0.53% [2][7]. - **Individual Varieties**: The top - rising varieties were silver, PTA, and gold, with increases of 11.04%, 8.57%, and 7.74% respectively; the top - falling varieties were glass, live pigs, and iron ore, with decreases of 3.54%, 3.46%, and 2.09% respectively [2][7]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with styrene, live pigs, and gold having relatively large fluctuations [2][7]. - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased last week, with only the black metal sector experiencing capital outflows. Gold and silver received capital inflows of 24.4 billion and 12.7 billion respectively [2][7]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: The US dollar index dropped significantly, and geopolitical disturbances increased market risk - aversion sentiment. The sector continued to fluctuate upward. The low inventory of silver also promoted the silver price. In the short term, the upward trend of the sector is hard to reverse, but post - overbought corrections should be watched out for [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The US dollar index was weak, risk - aversion sentiment was high, and domestic policies aimed to expand domestic demand. The supply - side contraction risk supported prices, and the sector may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar slightly declined, production increased, and inventory accumulated again. Steel mill profits were poor, and the resumption of production was affected. Iron ore port inventory increased significantly, and the structural contradiction needed to be resolved. The sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The US Treasury's new sanctions on Iran and the production suspension of two major oil fields in Kazakhstan due to force majeure, along with the cold wave in the US, led to a rise in natural gas prices and increased demand for heating oil. Oil prices may rebound, but the rebound space is limited due to the inventory - accumulation pressure in Q1 [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: For polyester products, terminal demand declined, and there was an inventory - accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival, but supply - contraction expectations and positive market sentiment may lead to short - term strong fluctuations. For building materials, PVC may see capacity reduction and possible export - grabbing, with an expected upward shift in the center of gravity; glass may see seasonal inventory accumulation but may follow macro - sentiment fluctuations [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The expectation of a South American bumper harvest is the main trading logic, but the slow progress of the new - season Brazilian soybean harvest may increase the pressure on US soybeans and soybean meal. The improvement of China - Canada relations may impact domestic soybean - meal prices. The supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil has improved, and the overall oilseeds and oils may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 7.5%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 29.5871 billion yuan, with a 4.42% increase, and the total trading volume increased by 82.85% [36]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 3.48% return, the soybean - meal ETF had a 0.92% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a - 0.52% return, and the silver fund had a 6.72% return [36][38]. The total scale of commodity ETFs was 31.8614 billion yuan, with a 3.99% increase, and the total trading volume increased by 49.13% [36].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on January 26 saw more gains than losses, with the main contract for silver rising nearly 13%, platinum over 9%, and palladium over 7% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1772.23 points, up 62.85 points or 3.68% from the previous trading day [1] - The overall commodity index also increased by 86.67 points, closing at 2443.85 points, reflecting a similar 3.68% rise [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals continued to surge, driven by geopolitical tensions and market expectations of a dovish U.S. Federal Reserve policy, with gold prices reaching above 1150 yuan per gram for the first time [2] - The market sentiment remains bullish for precious metals, although there are concerns about overly consistent bullish expectations potentially posing risks [2] Group 3: Energy and Chemical Sector Trends - The energy and chemical sectors are seeing increased investment interest due to rising oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and adverse weather conditions affecting natural gas prices [3] - The main contract for SC crude oil rose over 4%, reaching a new high in over a month, while high-sulfur fuel oil saw a significant increase due to tightening supply conditions [3] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate and Livestock Market - The main contract for lithium carbonate experienced high volatility, dropping over 6% due to profit-taking and market sentiment cooling, despite strong underlying demand [4] - The livestock market, particularly for live pigs, continued to operate at low levels, with prices declining nearly 1% as supply and demand dynamics shift ahead of the Spring Festival [5]

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has historically surpassed $100 per ounce, with an annual increase of over 44%, driven by a persistent supply-demand gap in the silver market, indicating a shift from a financial asset to a critical strategic resource dominated by industrial demand [5][8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market has been in a structural deficit since 2021, with a projected supply-demand gap of nearly 300 million ounces by 2025, the highest on record, expected to widen further in 2026 [5][6]. - Industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic (solar), electric vehicle, and AI infrastructure sectors, now accounts for over 60% of total silver demand, with photovoltaic demand increasing by more than 1.6 times over the past five years [5][26]. - The supply of silver is constrained, with over 70% of production coming from by-products of copper, lead, and zinc mining, leading to a rigid supply response to price changes [6][21]. Inventory and Market Conditions - Global visible silver inventories are at multi-year lows, covering only about 1.2 months of consumption, significantly below the safety threshold of three months [27][28]. - The depletion of inventories is characterized by a one-way flow of silver into industrial applications rather than a return to the market, indicating a critical supply shortage [27][28]. Historical Context and Future Implications - The historical role of silver as a monetary asset is being challenged by its current industrial applications, leading to an identity crisis in the silver market [19][30]. - China has emerged as a dominant player in the silver market, being the largest producer of photovoltaic components, effectively locking in silver demand through industrial consumption rather than monetary accumulation [17][39]. Pricing Mechanisms and Market Dynamics - The traditional pricing mechanisms for silver, dominated by Western financial markets, are under pressure as the demand for physical silver increases, revealing vulnerabilities in the "paper silver" market [30][32]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's model, which mandates physical delivery, contrasts sharply with Western markets, leading to price discrepancies and highlighting the shift towards a more demand-driven pricing structure [32][34]. Future Scenarios - Several potential scenarios for the silver market's future include a "run on silver" leading to a price surge, technological breakthroughs reducing silver usage in industries, or strategic state control over silver resources reshaping market dynamics [45][46].

席君安朝贸客户中的专业投资者，请勿润强、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的排价，亦不应被视为任何规资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因素收入收到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 2026/1/26 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 王蒙 | 李先飞 | 刘雨萱 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixia ...

近期贵金属市场的表现足以载入金融史册。黄金价格已正式突破 5000 美元/盎司，白银也在极短时间内站稳了 100 美元 关口。面对如此高位， 市场在震惊之余也产生了巨大的分歧：这究竟是阶段性的顶点，还是一个新时代的起点？ 阿萨交易学院分析师 Eden 认为，如果简单将此次狂飙归结为避险情绪，显然低估了本轮行情的强度。金银同步走强的背后，折射出的是全球 金融体系底层的结构性裂变。 从宏观视角来看，金银的大幅上涨反映了美元体系长期承压的公信力。近期美国在多个地缘方向上的动作——从对委内瑞拉、伊朗的激进举 措，到对格陵兰岛的主权表态，以及对北约成员国反复无常的关税威胁，都让美元作为全球储备货币所提供的"规则红利"受到侵蚀。 当投资者意识到资产配置换来的不再是体系稳定，而是更高的政策不确定性时，黄金和白银便成了重新定价风险的唯一锚点。这种从"制度信 任"向"硬资产信任"的迁移，是支撑金价站稳 5000 美元的核心基石。 阿萨交易学院分析师 Zero 指出，主要经济体近期在军费、公共安全及基础设施上的支出计划表明，全球财政约束正在弱化。这种财政扩张往 往伴随着货币供给的变相增加，从而抬高中长期的通胀预期。 在法币购买力 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals sector increased by 10.13% compared to the previous trading day, with Xiaocheng Technology leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] - Key stocks in the precious metals sector showed significant price increases, with Yanzai Technology rising by 20.01% and Hunan Gold by 10.01% [1] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the precious metals sector was 138 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 223 million yuan [1] - Detailed fund flow data indicates that Hengbang Co. had a main fund net inflow of 2.33 billion yuan, while retail investors had a net outflow of 86.06 million yuan [2] - Shandong Gold experienced a net outflow of 119 million yuan from main funds, but a net inflow of 178 million yuan from retail investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold stock ETF (517400) surged by 8.4% on January 26, with over 200 million yuan of net inflow in the past five days, indicating strong investor interest in precious metals and non-ferrous metals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals are showing strong performance, with international commodities seeing precious metals leading the rise, silver prices soaring, and significant increases in tin, gold, and nickel prices [1] - The domestic market reflects a similar trend, with precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals performing strongly, particularly silver leading the gains [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of the Greenland situation has led to a divergence between the US and Europe, contributing to a weakening dollar, which in turn has driven up precious metal prices [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - In the medium to long term, the price of gold is expected to trend upwards, suggesting that investors may consider participating during subsequent pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold fund ETFs (518800) as well as gold stock ETFs (517400) covering the entire gold industry chain are recommended for investors [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The spot gold price has surpassed $5000 per ounce for the first time, reaching a historical high [1] - The precious metals sector in the A-share market opened with a rise of over 4% and closed with an increase of 10.12%, with 9 out of 12 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - The precious metals index rose from 2407.71 points to 3517.33 points in just 16 trading days, marking a 46% increase [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Precious Metals Prices - The rise in precious metals is attributed to four main factors: increasing U.S. debt and deficits raising concerns about sustainability and dollar credibility, leading to central banks reducing U.S. Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves [2] - The acceleration of AI industry development and global energy transition has increased demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2] - A shift in global supply chain focus from efficiency to security has increased demand for key minerals, energy, and food reserves [2] - Changes in supply cycles have created a significant output gap in major non-ferrous metals since 2011, supporting industry prices [2] Group 3: Company Performance - Hunan Silver's net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 1.2698154 billion and 1.6084328 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of 50% to 90% due to rising sales prices of gold, antimony, and tungsten products [3] - Hunan Silver is a leading producer of silver and has a comprehensive industrial chain for the processing and sales of non-ferrous and precious metals [3] - The company has resumed full production after completing annual maintenance, with upgraded capacity in lead smelting and environmental safety systems [3]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with significant divergence in indices, where the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index opened high but closed down over 1% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 163 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 3,700 stocks in the market declined, indicating a broad-based sell-off [1] Sector Performance - The precious metals sector showed strong performance, with multiple stocks such as Sichuan Gold and Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit [2] - International gold prices reached new highs, with spot gold surpassing $5,100 per ounce and New York futures rising by 2.26% to over $5,130 per ounce [2] - The biopharmaceutical sector also saw gains, with stocks like Cap Bio and Huisheng Bio hitting the daily limit, driven by renewed interest due to the Nipah virus outbreak in India [3] Individual Stock Movements - In the commercial aerospace sector, stocks like China Satellite and China Sat fell sharply, indicating a downturn in this previously high-interest area [5] - The computing power leasing sector was active, with stocks such as Wangsu Technology and Yuke Technology hitting the daily limit, influenced by Amazon's price increase for its machine learning services [3] Future Outlook - The market is showing signs of increased short-term divergence, with a potential for further consolidation if the indices do not recover quickly [7] - The commercial aerospace sector's recovery strength will be a key focus, as it has been a popular area of interest [7]