人民财讯12月1日电，12月1日，三大指数集体高开，上证指数高开0.14%，深证成指高开0.42%，创业 板指高开0.26%。盘面上，贵金属、有色金属、旅游酒店、航天航空、卫星互联网概念等板块开盘活 跃；证券、教育、航空机场、保险等板块开盘走低。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is allocating significant funding through ultra-long-term special bonds to support "hard investment" projects, reflecting a strategic approach to enhance national infrastructure and security capabilities [2][4]. Group 1: Funding and Projects - In 2024 and 2025, China will issue 7,000 billion and 8,000 billion yuan respectively in ultra-long-term special bonds to support 1,465 and 1,459 "hard investment" projects [2][3]. - The "Two Heavy" construction initiative aims to integrate major tasks from the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, showcasing the institutional advantages of concentrating efforts on significant projects [2][4]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Developments - In new urbanization, the government is enhancing urban underground pipeline systems, improving safety resilience [3]. - Major transportation infrastructure projects along the Yangtze River, such as the Three Gorges waterway and high-speed rail, are being actively promoted [3]. - For food security, large-scale modernization of irrigation systems is planned to establish concentrated grain production bases [3]. - In social welfare, the construction and renovation of high schools and hospital wards are being supported to improve public services [3]. Group 3: Industry Growth Opportunities - The "Two Heavy" construction will create new growth opportunities for related upstream and downstream industries, particularly in urban underground pipeline systems [4]. - An estimated 600,000 kilometers of urban gas, water supply, and heating pipelines will require renovation over the next five years, with an investment demand of approximately 4 trillion yuan [4]. - The combination of "hard investment" and "soft construction" is essential for sustainable project outcomes, ensuring long-term effectiveness [4][5]. Group 4: Interaction Between Hard and Soft Investments - "Hard investment" refers to traditional infrastructure, while "soft construction" includes new facilities like data centers and industrial internet, addressing the needs of the new development stage [5]. - The interaction between "hard investment" and "soft construction" is crucial for overcoming management challenges in related industries [5]. - Innovative financing models are being explored to attract long-term institutional funds for project investments, promoting market-oriented reforms in utility pricing [5].

Group 1 - The market is characterized by a slow bull trend with reduced volatility and improved Sharpe ratios compared to the past, but subjective long positions have limited improvement [1] - The current market structure shows an increase in allocation-type funds, but there is a lack of incremental funds with individual stock pricing power, leading to higher valuation and safety margin requirements for subjective long positions [1] - A significant change in domestic demand is needed to unlock market potential, with recommendations to focus on resource and traditional manufacturing sectors as well as companies expanding overseas [1] Group 2 - December is expected to be a favorable time for "profit-making effects," with a shift in market dynamics from low to high win rates around the Spring Festival and Two Sessions [2] - The average duration of the "spring market" is about 20 trading days, with a focus on sectors with positive earnings forecasts for the upcoming year [2] - Many sectors have already seen adjustments of around 20%, making December a good time to start observing potential investments [2] Group 3 - The cross-year market is supported by easing overseas disturbances and a warming expectation of global liquidity, with a focus on sectors with high growth forecasts for 2026 [3] - Key sectors to watch include AI, advantageous manufacturing, and structural recovery in domestic demand, with an emphasis on policy support and sustainable valuation recovery [3] - The technology sector is expected to lead the market rally, particularly in AI applications and domestic computing power industries [3] Group 4 - December is anticipated to mark the beginning of a cross-year market rally, with a high probability of upward movement following three months of consolidation [4] - Investment opportunities are expected to arise in non-bank financials and sectors influenced by upcoming policy directions from key meetings [4] - The dual focus on the Shanghai 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices is seen as advantageous for capitalizing on the cross-year market [4] Group 5 - The market is expected to experience a cross-year rally, with a focus on technology growth and resource sectors [6] - Key industries to consider include non-ferrous metals, AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - The theme of commercial aerospace is highlighted as a significant area of interest [6] Group 6 - The A-share market is entering a critical policy observation window, with expectations of increased risk appetite and a favorable environment for cross-year market positioning [7] - Key sectors include commercial aerospace, AI applications, and military technology, which are expected to benefit from policy catalysts [7] - The focus on industries related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" is emphasized for investment opportunities [7] Group 7 - The cross-year and spring market strategies are highlighted as key focus areas for December, with policy factors being a core driver [8] - The market is expected to transition from value-driven to growth-driven dynamics, with small-cap stocks showing strong performance in recent years [8] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to provide new investment themes if specific industry proposals are introduced [8] Group 8 - The current A-share market is assessed as being in a high-cut-low phase, with expectations of continued volatility until the end of the year [9] - The market's ability to break through the 4000-point level is seen as crucial for future performance, with a need for a transition from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven growth [9] - The technology sector is expected to remain sensitive to market conditions, with a focus on resource sectors as potential winners [9] Group 9 - The market is currently in a "slow bull" phase, with significant room for growth, but short-term volatility is expected due to a lack of strong catalysts [10] - Defensive and consumer sectors are recommended for short-term focus, while TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are highlighted for mid-term investment [10] - The market is anticipated to remain in a consolidation phase, with high-dividend and consumer sectors likely to perform better [10] Group 10 - The foundation supporting the current liquidity-driven bull market remains solid, with potential for improved earnings and capital inflows to extend the bull market [11] - The market may experience volatility due to weak economic data and adjustments in overseas markets, but opportunities for upward movement are expected as policies and funding conditions improve [11] - The focus on clearing capacity and inventory, along with the commercialization of emerging industries like AI, is seen as crucial for market health [11]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strategic shift towards large financial and consumer sectors, indicating a rebound opportunity following a period of panic due to tariff impacts [2] - The report highlights a positive performance in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 10% to above 3800 points since the mid-year strategy was introduced [2] Overall Assessment - The report suggests a cautious approach, recommending investors to wait for opportunities to buy on dips. It notes that liquidity-driven adjustments have stabilized, with certain asset classes like TMT and precious metals leading the rebound [3][7] - The report anticipates that the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts will further bolster market confidence, despite short-term investor caution in domestic sectors like lithium batteries and storage [3][7] Configuration Direction - The report advises a gradual investment strategy based on economic expectations and valuation attractiveness, focusing on quality dividends and cyclical opportunities in sectors such as real estate, resource commodities, and consumer sentiment [4][9] - It identifies four key areas for medium-term investment: technology (AI trends), high-end manufacturing (global investment cycle), consumer (high-quality overseas profits), and resource commodities (supply-side dynamics) [4][9] Top Stock Picks - The report lists ten recommended stocks across various sectors, including TCL Electronics, Action Education, Anjuke Food, Petty Co., Chengda Pharmaceutical, Haiguang Information, Lixing Co., Jitu Express, Beibu Gulf Port, and China Resources Mixc Living [4][5]

本周观点 逐步回归平静： 投资逻辑 逐步回归平静。1）12 月美联储降息争议减弱，市场出现显著回暖，流动性和风偏有所回升。Google 发布 Gemini 之后又起 AI 芯片 TPU 逻辑，一方面减弱了对 AI 泡沫的担忧，另外一方面让 AI 产业链逻辑有所延伸，TPU 产业 链相关标的表现强劲。我们对 AI 科技发展的前景持续看好，AI 对生产效率提升的逻辑畅通，短期可能产业过热 或者过度投资，我们关注经营性现金流良好的科技龙头，如美股的 Google、META、微软、阿里、腾讯等，另外持 续关注 AI 应用的落地方向，如物理 AI 等。2）加密货币短期压力难减，区间震荡为主，尽管 12 月美联储降息概 率提升，但是高风险资产对降息信息的讨论过度敏感，加上 DAT、ETF 等中心化持币的负反馈担忧，短期我们谨 慎观察该板块的变化。中长期维度我们对区块链、加密市场保持乐观，对去中心化、跨境支付技术迭代等带来的 变化时刻保持跟踪。3）澳门度假旅游行业我们认为持续配置的价值高，供给和需求的剪刀差逻辑持续兑现，板 块中长期维度受益于降息周期，而未来几个月的景气度在长假期加持和低基数的背景下有望持续上行。4）我们 ...

Group 1: Economic Structure and Trends - The service and manufacturing sectors are not in opposition but rather have a symbiotic relationship, as evidenced by the increase of over 7 percentage points in the service sector's share of global GDP from 1980 to 1996, while manufacturing remained stable[1] - From 2002 to 2019, both sectors exhibited a synchronized trend of rise and fall, indicating their interdependence rather than a zero-sum game[1] - Manufacturing acts as an incubator for service industries, with many productive services like logistics and R&D initially emerging from within manufacturing firms[1] Group 2: Support and Demand Dynamics - The large service sector constitutes the core consumer base for manufacturing products, creating significant demand for items ranging from medical equipment to educational materials[2] - Services play a crucial role in enhancing human capital, which is essential for the quality of manufacturing inputs, thereby supporting innovation and breakthroughs in the manufacturing sector[2] - The current economic transition in China highlights the need for high-quality development in manufacturing to create more opportunities for productive services like R&D and digital services[2] Group 3: Current Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 1.70% year-on-year, indicating a contraction in investment activities[4] - Retail sales have shown a modest increase of 2.90% year-on-year, reflecting some resilience in consumer spending[4] - Exports have declined by 1.10% year-on-year, suggesting pressure on external demand[4] - The M2 money supply has grown by 8.21%, indicating a continued expansionary monetary policy[4]

《中国经济原论》封面。 80多年前，中华民族最为危急的时刻，前线的浴血奋战之外，还有一片"不见硝烟的阵地"。当战火迫近 时，众多院校无法坚守故土，踏上迁徙之路，在抗战中坚持办学。 战时私立岭南大学的大村校园。 以上图片均为曹劲提供 在华南地区的院校中，迁校最远的是国立中山大学（现中山大学）。这所孙中山先生亲手创办的华南最 高学府，在1938年10月广州沦陷前紧急撤离，在粤西罗定短暂盘桓后再西迁至云南澄江。在大后方办学 1年多后，1940年秋，学校上千师生又因粤地战时高等教育的需要，水陆兼程回迁广东。迁校经历最为 周折的是广东省立文理学院，它的前身是广东省立勷勤大学师范学院，在迁校办学途中改组独立，先后 在广西梧州、藤县、融县，广东乳源、连县、罗定等地复课，直至抗战胜利，历经"九载十迁"。 更多的华南院校是在粤港澳三地间辗转。因地理相邻，文化同源，三地教育一向关系密切，战前港澳学 生在广州求学深造十分常见。广州开始遭到空袭之后，大量港澳学生回家避难，为便于这些学生就读， 同时也为创造较为安稳的办学环境，许多广州院校播迁港澳。 私立岭南大学得到香港大学的鼎力支持，两校学生分时段使用港大的教室和实验室上课，相互旁听 ...

智通财经APP讯，大山教育(09986)发布公告，本公司股份已自2025年11月28日星期五下午1时32分起暂 停买卖，以待本公司就涉及本公司股份的相关限制通知所述情况刊发澄清公告。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The integration of AI is fundamentally altering employment rules, leading to a significant restructuring of job roles and organizational hierarchies across various industries [1][11]. Group 1: Impact on Employment - AI is not merely eliminating jobs but reorganizing tasks within roles, particularly those that are repetitive and rule-based [2]. - The value of human labor is being diluted as AI takes over standardized tasks, resulting in a decrease in demand for entry-level positions [3]. - The employment rate for young individuals aged 22-25 in the U.S. has dropped by 13% due to AI's impact, leading to a generational divide in the labor market [5]. Group 2: Organizational Changes - Companies are quietly undergoing a "revolution" in task and workforce restructuring, moving away from traditional pyramid structures to a more inverted model that emphasizes high-level integrators who can collaborate with AI [6]. - The traditional approach of hiring and training new employees is shifting towards seeking high-level talent capable of working alongside AI, making recruitment more challenging and costly [6]. Group 3: Industry-Specific AI Penetration - Industries such as information technology, finance, and law are experiencing the highest rates of AI penetration, with task replacement rates reaching 20-25% [7]. - Low-skill jobs in sectors like cleaning and food service currently face minimal impact, but this is expected to change as AI technology advances [4]. Group 4: Training and Skill Development - The effectiveness of retraining programs for low-skill workers is questionable, as participation in AI-related training has led to a 29% decrease in income for these individuals [8]. - There is a pressing need to shift focus from technical skills to general capabilities that AI cannot replicate, such as complex judgment and interpersonal communication [8][10]. Group 5: Future Employment Landscape - The long-term implications of AI integration suggest a shift in the labor market towards roles that require human judgment and the ability to collaborate with AI [11]. - Companies must adapt to the new employment rules by fostering environments that prioritize human skills that AI cannot replace, ensuring that employees can navigate the evolving landscape [9][10].

Core Insights - The A-share education sector showed active performance with a closing increase of 1.92%, driven by stocks like China High-Tech and Kevin Education [1] - The "AI + Education" trend is becoming a significant direction for global digital education transformation, as highlighted by the Ministry of Education's report [1] - The market size for "AI + Education" is expected to exceed 160 billion yuan by 2027 and approach 180 billion yuan by 2030, indicating a new growth opportunity [2] Company Developments - Duolingo has been a representative company in the "AI + Education" field, leveraging AI technology since its inception in 2011, achieving significant cost and time savings in its English testing services [2] - Duolingo's daily active users are projected to reach 40.5 million in 2024, a 51% year-on-year increase, with paid subscribers rising to 9.5 million [2] - Domestic companies are accelerating their "AI + Education" strategies, with notable R&D investments from companies like Zhonggong Education and *ST Guohua [3] Industry Trends - The core value of "AI + Education" lies in enhancing efficiency, providing personalized experiences, and enabling commercial monetization [4] - AI technology significantly reduces the costs of producing and delivering educational content while enabling precise teaching through data analysis [4] - The ongoing evolution of large model technology is expanding AI's application across various educational segments, including language learning and vocational training [4]