Group 1: Report's Core View - This week, cotton prices showed a volatile trend. Abroad, the weather in US cotton - growing areas has been favorable recently, with increased rainfall alleviating the poor soil moisture in the western regions. As of June 17, the drought - affected area in US cotton - growing areas dropped to 3%, lower than last year. Last week, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 48%, at the average level of previous years. US cotton export net sales reached 358,100 bales last week, a significant increase. The external market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with US crude oil rebounding after a decline due to geopolitical factors and the US dollar index stabilizing as the Fed maintains the interest rate. In the domestic supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory is continuously being consumed, and cotton imports are scarce. The downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a lackluster cotton price under the situation of weak supply and demand. The new cotton sowing in Xinjiang is completed, and the weather in the growing areas is normal, with good cotton growth. The strategy is that with the mix of bullish and bearish factors, US cotton prices continue to decline. Currently, the new cotton sowing in China is completed, the weather in growing areas is favorable, the commercial inventory is decreasing, and cotton imports are low. Under the weak supply - demand situation, the cotton price remains stable. Waiting for new guidance, the Zhengzhou cotton will continue to move in a volatile manner in the short term [6]. Group 2: Market Performance Review - As of the close on June 20, the ICE US cotton 12 contract closed at 66.76 cents per pound, down 1.14 points from last week's close, with a weekly decline of 1.68%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,495 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week [8]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Cotton Sowing and Growth - As of the week of June 15, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 48% (49% the previous week, 54% in the same period last year), the planting rate was 85% (76% the previous week, 89% last year, with a five - year average of 90%), the boll - setting rate was 3% (5% last year, five - year average of 3%), and the budding rate was 19% (12% the previous week, 21% last year, five - year average of 17%) [16]. US Cotton Exports - As of the week of June 12, the net export sales of US 2024/2025 upland cotton were 83,000 bales (60,000 bales the previous week), the net sales of 2025/2026 upland cotton were 275,000 bales (36,000 bales the previous week), and the export shipments were 205,000 bales (236,000 bales the previous week) [21]. Domestic Spinning Mills' Operation - As of June 19, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 71.7%, a 0.69% decline from the previous week. Spinning mills have limited new orders. Small and medium - sized spinning mills in the inland areas often operate in staggered shifts, with the operating rate reduced to 50% - 60%. The operation of Xinjiang spinning mills is basically stable, maintaining at 80% - 90% [25]. Domestic Spinning Mills' Inventory - As of the week of June 19, the inventory of mainstream spinning mills in terms of cotton storage days was 28.2 days. As of June 19, the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 30.5 days, a 1.33% increase from the previous week. Currently, the operating rate of Foshan grey fabric factories is 20% - 30%, and the overall raw material procurement is cautious. The raw material inventory of yarn enterprises has accumulated, with the inventory of some large factories in Xinjiang around 35 - 40 days and that of inland enterprises around 17 - 28 days [28]. Domestic Cotton Inventory - As of June 20, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.9915 million tons, a decrease of 106,500 tons (3.44% decline) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 2.1193 million tons, a decrease of 87,100 tons (3.95% decline) from the previous week, and the commercial cotton in inland areas was 447,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (0.22% decline) from the previous week. As of June 19, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 4.15% from the previous week, with a total inventory of 424,700 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [30].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Weakening Consumption, Lackluster Rebound of Zhengzhou Cotton - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" and was released on June 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Domestically, this week Zhengzhou cotton oscillated within a narrow range, and the market trend was indecisive. The basis in Xinjiang continued to strengthen, with a supply shortage in some areas. Consumption pressure remained high, with a decline in the operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises, an accumulation of finished - product inventories, and a lack of new orders. The impact of high - temperature forecasts in southern Xinjiang on cotton growth was expected to be limited. Internationally, in the short term, cotton prices were affected by oil price fluctuations due to the international situation. The war situation would continue to disrupt the market. Fundamentally, the drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas was at the five - year average level and showed a slight downward trend weekly. Precipitation increased recently, and the drought index in most areas dropped to 0. There were few catalysts for U.S. cotton. China's procurement of U.S. cotton was at a standstill. Overall, there were no major fundamental contradictions, and prices might fluctuate following macro - events [52] Group 4: Cotton Market Analysis Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated within a narrow range this week, with a weekly increase of 0.04%. ICE cotton futures weakened, with a weekly decline of 1.81% [11] Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 59 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 37 yuan/ton [15] Cotton Import Situation - In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [17] Cotton Inventory Situation - In May, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 941,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55,200 tons [26] Downstream Inventory Situation - In May, the yarn inventory was 22.34 days, a year - on - year decrease of 5.19 days. The grey fabric inventory was 32.89 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.94 days [31] Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices remained stable. The prices of OE 10s, Combed 32s, and Combed 40s cotton yarns were the same as last week [34] Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 161. There were 10,607 warehouse receipts and 308 valid forecasts, totaling 10,915 [38] U.S. Cotton Export Situation - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of June 5, the net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the current market year increased by 60,200 bales, and the net sales for the next market year were 36,100 bales [41] U.S. Weather Situation - The drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas and Texas was at the five - year average level and showed a slight downward trend weekly. Recently, precipitation increased in the main producing areas, and the drought index in most areas except Texas and Arizona dropped to 0 [52] Group 5: Market Outlook - Domestically, the market was in a stalemate, with supply shortages in some areas and high consumption pressure. The impact of high - temperature forecasts on cotton growth needed further monitoring. Internationally, the market was affected by the international situation and war. Fundamentally, U.S. cotton lacked catalysts, and China's procurement was at a standstill. Overall, prices might fluctuate with macro - events [52]

Report Overview - Report title: [Galaxy Research] Investigation Report on Cotton Planting and Inventory in Northern Xinjiang (II) [2] - Report date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [7] Research Background - The cotton planting area will continue to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the report aims to understand the change in Xinjiang's cotton output [3] - Xinjiang's spinning capacity is approaching 30 million spindles and still expanding, and the report wants to know the operation of textile enterprises under the deteriorating international trade environment [3] - With the accelerating出库 speed of Xinjiang cotton, the report intends to find out the real inventory situation due to concerns about tight supply during the off - season before new cotton is on the market [3] Research Route - Urumqi - Wujiaqu - Shihezi - Kuitun - Jinghe [4] Research Findings Spinning Enterprise D - Enterprise situation: It has a capacity of about 100,000 spindles, two processing workshops (self - operated and contract - processing), 30 - 50 employees, mainly produces pure - cotton yarn C32S and C40S, and the processing fee is 4000 - 5000 yuan/ton with different varieties having different fees [6] - Startup situation: Its textile machines in Xinjiang are mostly running, while its inland spinning mills operate during off - peak hours at night as many inland spinning machines are shut down [8] - Inventory: Since it mainly does contract - processing, its cotton and yarn inventories are small [9] - Order situation: Orders are average, and the high impurity in cotton affects yarn quality [9] - Market outlook: The downstream market is average, cotton prices may have small fluctuations. The enthusiasm of ginning factories in Northern Xinjiang to lease factories is low, and some have the idea of selling off, showing less confidence than in previous years [9] Warehouse E - Enterprise situation: It has a storage capacity of about 150,000 tons [10] - Cotton inventory: The incoming volume this year accounts for about 50% of the total capacity. The peak outgoing volume can reach 2000 tons/day, with peak periods after the Spring Festival and in April. The outgoing speed has slowed down recently, and the remaining inventory is small, with most goods owned by large enterprises and little by private enterprises [10] Warehouse F - Enterprise and inventory situation: It has a small storage capacity of 40,000 - 50,000 tons, and the remaining cotton inventory is low. The outgoing speed has slowed down recently. The cotton outgoing progress this year is slightly faster than last year, with 20+ trucks per day during the peak last year and 3 - 4 trucks per day recently [11] Warehouse G - Enterprise and inventory situation: It is a large warehouse with a capacity of 400,000 - 500,000 tons. The incoming volume this year is slightly less, about 300,000 - 350,000 tons. It still has some inventory, and the outgoing speed has slowed down recently after being fast after the Spring Festival and maintaining a basic volume in March and April [12] - Other: The new cotton is growing well, and the output in the new season may not change much compared to this season. Some ginning factories in Northern Xinjiang plan to lease or sell off, and the willingness of enterprises to lease factories is low this year [12]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 16 日 棉花：关注外部市场影响 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2509 CY2509 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 13,495 19,715 | -0.18% -0.28% | 13530 19770 | 0.26% 0.28% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 67.9 | 0.55% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2509 | 手 | 252,297 | 17,649 | 794,398 | -6,587 | | | CY2509 | 手 | 6,521 | -1,999 | 19,858 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Cotton futures prices have significantly increased due to improved macroeconomic sentiment and accelerated commercial inventory depletion, leading to expectations of tighter supply before the new cotton harvest [2][3]. Group 1: Cotton Price Trends - On June 9, cotton futures prices surged, with the main contract reaching a three-week high of 13,550 yuan/ton, closing at 13,495 yuan/ton, marking a daily increase of 1.09% [2]. - Since April 9, cotton futures prices have shown a cumulative increase of 6% after initially declining [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - As of the end of May, China's commercial cotton inventory stood at 3.459 million tons, a decrease of 694,000 tons from the end of April, with monthly reductions exceeding 600,000 tons since March [3]. - Retail sales in April for clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 108.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, indicating strong domestic demand [3]. Group 3: Supply Factors - Domestic cotton production is expected to increase, with the planting area in Xinjiang projected to grow in 2025, supported by favorable climate conditions [4]. - In contrast, U.S. cotton planting area is expected to decrease by 12% in 2025, with the main cotton-producing state, Texas, seeing an 8% reduction [5]. Group 4: Global Cotton Market Outlook - The USDA forecasts a global cotton production increase of 1.76 million tons to 26.36 million tons for the 2024/25 season, while U.S. cotton production is expected to rise by 510,000 tons to 3.14 million tons [6]. - Recent U.S. cotton sales have been sluggish, with cumulative contracts down 6.8% year-on-year as of May 29 [6]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that investors should monitor macroeconomic impacts, cotton supply and demand dynamics, and weather conditions, as these factors will significantly influence cotton prices [7]. - Short-term cotton futures prices are expected to fluctuate between 13,000 and 13,800 yuan/ton, with potential upward pressure from low inventory levels [8].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 10 日 棉花：继续受市场情绪影响 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | -0.23% | | | CF2509 CY2509 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 13,495 19,740 | 1.01% 0.56% | 13465 19695 | -0.22% | | | ICE美棉07 | 美分/磅 | 65.97 | 0.59% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2509 | 手 | 358,684 | 44,190 | 775,318 | 24,946 | | | CY2509 | 手 | 5,612 | -1,999 | 14,414 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The market sentiment improvement drives the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures [1] Group 3: Fundamental Tracking Futures - CF2509 closed at 13,360 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.87%, and 13,435 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.56%. Its trading volume was 314,494 lots, an increase of 132,900 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 750,372 lots, an increase of 12,557 lots [2]. - CY2509 closed at 19,630 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.18%, and 19,685 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.28%. Its trading volume was 7,918 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 12,592 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [2]. - ICE US cotton 07 closed at 65.58 cents/pound yesterday with a daily increase of 0.40% [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,870, a decrease of 69 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 371, an increase of 2 [2]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, with no change from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, with no change [2]. Spot - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,596 yuan/ton, an increase of 144 yuan or 1.00% from the previous day [2]. - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,355 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan or 0.84% from the previous day [2]. - The price in Shandong was 14,565 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day [2]. - The price in Hebei was 14,450 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [2]. - The 3128B index was 14,561 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day [2]. - The international cotton index M (CNCottonM) was 75.23 cents/pound, an increase of 0.21% from the previous day [2]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [2]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 21,723 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan or 0.00% from the previous day [2]. Spreads - The CF9 - 1 spread increased by 70 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. Group 4: Macro and Industry News - Domestic cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, with partial good transactions. Traders were the main buyers, and the mainstream sales basis changed little. The sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was mostly at CF09 + 1350 - 1450, and there were a small number of low - price offers at 1250 - 1350 for inland self - pick - up. The freight of cotton out of Xinjiang by truck was still weak [3]. - The pure - cotton yarn market entered the traditional off - season, with fewer orders and slower sales for spinning mills. The cotton yarn price showed a downward trend. The all - cotton grey fabric market was dull, with few transactions reported by manufacturers, mainly due to the lack of orders from downstream customers or their wait - and - see attitude. Weaving mills had weak confidence in the future market [3]. - Last Friday, ICE cotton rose slightly, following the overall commodity market trend. The market continued to focus on the US cotton sowing progress and awaited the crop growth report after the Monday session [3]. Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) oscillated and then rebounded slightly this week, influenced by external markets. The basis in Xinjiang strengthened, and textile enterprises had small profits, strongly supporting the spot market. However, consumption was weak, with no rush - to - export situation in the downstream. The operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises declined significantly, and the inventory of grey cloth costs continued to rise. The market lacked continuous upward momentum but was supported by low inventory and a strong Xinjiang basis, so the downward space was limited. In the short term, Zhengmian may remain in an oscillatory state [53]. - Internationally, the market generally lacked drivers and maintained an oscillatory trend. As of June 1st, the U.S. cotton planting rate was 66%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and lower than the five - year average of 69%. The U.S. cotton planting progress was still behind, but the lag had narrowed. Some cotton had started to bud, and the early excellent - good rate was lower year - on - year. U.S. cotton export data improved, with 316,100 bales shipped in the week ending May 29th, up 15% from the previous week and 1% from the four - week average. Overall, the short - term price space for cotton was limited [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) cotton futures prices oscillated this week, with a weekly increase of 0.64%. ICE cotton futures prices had a slight oscillation, with a weekly increase of 0.38% [10]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price indices showed mixed trends. The 3128 index increased by 14 yuan/ton compared to last week, while the 2129 index decreased by 17 yuan/ton [14]. 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In April, 60,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 280,000 tons [17]. 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory Situation - In April, the commercial cotton inventory was 4.1526 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 183,300 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 954,200 tons, a year - on - year increase [26]. 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory Situation - In April, the yarn inventory was 20.8 days, a year - on - year decrease of 2.88 days. The grey cloth inventory was 30.17 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.34 days [30]. 3.1.6 Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices declined. The price of 10 - count rotor - spun cotton yarn decreased by 80 yuan/ton compared to last week, the price of 32 - count carded cotton yarn decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the price of 40 - count combed cotton yarn remained unchanged [35]. 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 229. There were 10,939 warehouse receipts and 369 valid forecasts, totaling 11,308 [39]. 3.1.8 U.S. Cotton Export Situation - As of May 29th, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the current year increased by 109,800 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 39,000 bales [42][47]. 3.1.9 U.S. Weather Situation - Not elaborated in terms of its impact on the market in the provided content, only the data source is given [52]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - The domestic market lacks continuous upward momentum but has limited downward space due to low inventory and a strong Xinjiang basis. Short - term Zhengmian may remain in an oscillatory state. The international market also lacks drivers and maintains an oscillatory trend, with the U.S. cotton planting progress still behind but the lag narrowing and export data improving [53].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report indicates that cotton has insufficient upward momentum. The domestic cotton spot market has average trading, and the cotton - textile market has entered a slack season with weakening trading and mostly falling prices. The ICE cotton rebounded due to factors such as the dollar's decline, crude oil's rise, and concerns about the slow sowing progress [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,275 yuan/ton with a - 0.34% daily decline, and its trading volume was 203,391 lots, a decrease of 60,819 lots from the previous day. CY2507 closed at 19,525 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% daily decline, and its trading volume was 6,105 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day. ICE cotton 07 closed at 66.18 cents/pound with a 1.67% increase [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,102, a decrease of 55 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 374, a decrease of 6 from the previous day. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, with no change [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,407 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,193 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 3128B index was 14,569 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan from the previous day, a - 0.06% decline [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day's spread. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was average, and the spot basis was temporarily stable. The lower sales basis of 2024/25 South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with less than 3.5 impurities was around CF09 + 850, and most quotes of the same quality were above CF09 + 900, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market weakened and entered the slack season. Tightly spun/Compact - spun 21 - 26 count cotton yarns and high - grade 40 count cotton yarns had relatively good sales, while other varieties were sluggish. Prices mostly declined, and spinning mills had difficulty in making high - price transactions and mainly negotiated for sales [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton rebounded, closing with a 1.67% increase. It was affected by the dollar's decline, crude oil's rise, and concerns about the slow sowing progress. As of the week of June 1st, the US cotton sowing progress was 66%, compared with 68% in the same period last year and a 5 - year average of 69% [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].

2025 年 5 月 29 日 棉花：需求进入淡季 棉价缺乏上涨动能 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2509 | 元/吨 | 13,330 | 0.00% | 13245 | -0.64% | | | CY2507 | 元/吨 | 19,635 | 0.33% | 19525 | -0.56% | | | ICE美棉07 | 美分/磅 | 65.33 | -0.38% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2509 | 手 | 177,566 | -99,405 | 745,557 | -5,073 | | | CY2507 | 手 | 7,597 | -1,999 | 8,602 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变 ...