1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the palm oil market and related industries, covering aspects such as production, price, weather, and profit. It presents data on international palm oil production, prices of various oils, import and processing profits, weather conditions in palm oil - producing regions, and biodiesel processing and blending profits, as well as the demand - side situation of the oil market [4][8][11][128]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil Production and Market Data - MPOB data shows that in the 4th period, the palm oil production situation includes aspects such as the production of smallholders and large - scale plantations, with a 14% increase in production in certain areas compared to the previous period, and a 20% increase in the 4th period compared to the 3rd period in some regions [4]. - The prices of international soybeans from different origins (Ukraine, Brazil, Germany, etc.) and various international oils (Russian sunflower oil, Indonesian CPO, etc.) are presented, with price fluctuations over different time points from March to May 2025 [8][12]. - The FOB price spreads of different oils, such as the price spreads between Malaysian and Indonesian RBD Olein, and between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian CPO, are analyzed [15][17]. 3.2 Import and Processing Profits - The palm oil on - the - plate profit for different shipping dates (from October to May) is presented, showing profit fluctuations over time [30]. - The import and processing profits of Brazilian soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed are also analyzed, with historical data from 2021 - 2025 and the average value from 2021 - 2024 [31]. 3.3 Weather Conditions in Palm Oil - Producing Regions - Weather data for multiple palm oil - producing regions in Malaysia (Sabah, Sarawak, Pahang, Johor) and other areas (Kalimantan, Sumatra, Jambi, Riau) are provided, including soil moisture, average weekly temperature, daily rainfall, and rainfall and temperature forecasts [38][51][65]. 3.4 Biodiesel - The processing profit and blending profit of US biodiesel are analyzed, with historical data from 2007 - 2025 and the average value from 2007 - 2024 (for processing profit) and 2021 - 2024 (for blending profit) [129][131]. 3.5 Demand - Side Situation - The weekly trading volume of different oils (palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean oil) is presented, showing the trading volume changes from April 15 to May 9, 2025 [141][142].

| | 1、南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年5月1-10日马来西亚棕榈油单产增加 | | --- | --- | | | 20.2%，出油率增加0.4%，产量增加22.31%。2、据马来西亚棕榈油局MPOB，马来西亚4月棕榈油 | | | 出口为1102266吨，环比增长9.62%。马来西亚4月棕榈油产量为1685962吨，环比增长21.52%。马 | | 行业 | 来西亚4月棕榈油库存量为1865537吨，环比增长19.37%。 | | 信息 | | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕偏弱运行，近期美豆产区天气整体较为顺利，有助于大豆播种工作的推进。 | | | USDA公布本月供需报告，美豆产量及期末库存均低于预估，报告数据利多。并且中美双方在瑞士 | | | 进行会谈并取得实质性进展，因此美豆出口前景得到改善，美豆期价回升至贸易关税之前水平。 | | | 国内方面，中美关税取得进展国内进口美国大豆有望增加，对国内豆粕行情形成阶段性利空。近 | | | 期国内油厂开机大幅回升，供应偏紧情况得到明显缓解，豆粕供应快速增加预期较强。二季度国 | | | 内原料大豆、豆粕供应料充足，将继续施 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Report Date: May 14, 2025 - Report Author: Xu Liang - Reviewer: Tang Yun Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: The estimated production in the producing areas is expected to increase month-on-month, and the approaching seasonal production increase adds to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently at a low level, as the origin quotation weakens, subsequent vessel purchases are gradually emerging. On the consumption side, since the current soybean-palm oil price spread is still inverted, incremental consumption is not given, and the inventory is expected to increase and needs to find consumption by further narrowing the soybean-palm oil price spread [3]. - Soybean oil: On the supply side, as the purchased vessels arrive at the port, the pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill压榨 is expected to increase accordingly. However, on the consumption side, since there is no incremental consumption to absorb the supply, the inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. Subsequently, under the expectation of a double increase in the supply of palm oil and soybean oil, the soybean-palm oil price spread may be repaired in the far month to compete for market share in the consumer market [3]. - Rapeseed oil: Recently, due to the expected improvement in China-Canada relations, the premium of the market's policy expectation trading has been hit. On the actual supply side, as the previously purchased rapeseed has now arrived at the port, the coastal rapeseed inventory is gradually decreasing. The current supply of rapeseed oil is at a stage peak, and subsequently, with the obvious limitation of new supply, the expected marginal depletion rate is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. On the consumption side, due to the policy premium of rapeseed oil, the rapeseed-soybean oil price spread has always been in a range unfavorable for rapeseed oil consumption, suppressing consumption. The consumption of rapeseed oil also remains at the level of rigid demand. Currently, there is high inventory pressure, but the policy uncertainty provides support for the far month [3]. Oilseeds - After the China-US talks, there may be opportunities for China to purchase soybeans for import in the fourth quarter. However, from the current crushing profit situation, the far-month crushing profit under the retained tariffs on US soybeans is still negative, and the progress of vessel purchases is expected to be slow. Moreover, this time, the trade agreement between the two sides was not involved, and it is expected to be mainly emotional trading in the short term. In terms of arrivals, there are currently 12.5 million tons in May and 10.5 million tons in June. Overall, the near-month supply is still relatively abundant [15]. - For domestic soybean meal, the current soybean inventory at ports and oil mills continues to rise, and as the operating rate gradually recovers, coupled with the state reserve auction, the supply in some areas has gradually recovered. The national soybean meal inventory has bottomed out and rebounded, and the spot price has been continuously lowered. From the demand side, oil mills are gradually starting up to realize profits, and downstream customers have basically completed their inventory preparations. Subsequently, it is expected that they will pick up goods at a rigid demand replenishment pace, and the physical inventory will continue to remain at a low level [15]. - On the rapeseed meal side, the rapeseed converted into rapeseed meal at the spot end plus the rapeseed meal inventory in East and South China is still relatively high. Although it has gradually entered the aquatic product inventory preparation month, the inventory depletion rate is still difficult. The registration of rapeseed meal delivery month warehouse receipts has reached a historical peak. On the one hand, the low price of soybean meal is constantly squeezing the demand for rapeseed meal, and it is more appropriate to register warehouse receipts for delivery under the background of a negative spot basis. On the other hand, due to the previous expansion of the number of rapeseed meal delivery factories by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the delivery month positions and delivery orders on the futures market have increased. Last Friday, an announcement on the customs import management measures for rapeseed meal was released, indicating that the better choice for subsequent imported rapeseed is to process it in the bonded area and then re-export it. It is also more appropriate to re-export imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil. Coupled with the uncertainty of China-Canada relations in the future, the long-term expectations for the far month are still relatively strong [15]. Summary by Directory Fats and Oils Price Differences between Months and Varieties - P 1-5: -262 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan; P 5-9: 266 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan; P 9-1: -4 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; Y-P 01: -270 yuan/ton, down 98 yuan; Y-P 05: -420 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan; Y-P 09: -270 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan; Y/M 01: 2.6678, up 0.48%; Y/M 05: 2.9105, up 0.51%; Y/M 09: 2.7159, up 0.59%; OI 1-5: -136 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan; OI 5-9: -41 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan; OI 9-1: 177 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; OI/RM 01: 4.0056, up 0.27%; OI/RM 05: 3.8895, down 0.28%; OI/RM 09: 3.7617, down 0.2% [4] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Palm oil 01: 8188 yuan/ton, up 2.74%; Palm oil 05: 8450 yuan/ton, up 1.51%; Palm oil 09: 8184 yuan/ton, up 2.89%; BMD palm oil main contract: 3951 ringgit/ton, up 1.49%; 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou: 8690 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; 24-degree basis in Guangzhou: 506 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; POGO: 409.539 US dollars/ton, down 1.168 US dollars; International soybean oil-palm oil: 68.52 US dollars/ton, up 54.23 US dollars [7] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Soybean oil 01: 7918 yuan/ton, up 1.06%; Soybean oil 05: 8030 yuan/ton, up 0.47%; Soybean oil 09: 7914 yuan/ton, up 0.97%; CBOT soybean oil main contract: 51.65 US cents/pound, up 3.65%; Shandong first-grade soybean oil spot: 8100 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; Shandong first-grade soybean oil basis: 186 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan; BOHO (weekly): 57.847 US dollars/barrel, down 9.8182 US dollars; Domestic first-grade soybean oil - 24-degree palm oil: -460 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [12] Oilseeds Futures Prices - Soybean meal 01: 2968 yuan, up 31 yuan, up 1.06%; Soybean meal 05: 2759 yuan, up 13 yuan, up 0.47%; Soybean meal 09: 2914 yuan, up 28 yuan, up 0.97%; Rapeseed meal 01: 2312 yuan, up 17 yuan, up 0.74%; Rapeseed meal 05: 2416 yuan, up 6 yuan, up 0.25%; Rapeseed meal 09: 2509 yuan, up 22 yuan, up 0.88%; CBOT yellow soybeans: 1075 yuan, unchanged, 0%; Offshore RMB: 7.2017, up 0.0045, up 0.06% [16][18] Price Differences between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - M01-05: 209 yuan, up 18 yuan; M05-09: -155 yuan, down 15 yuan; M09-01: -54 yuan, down 3 yuan; RM01-05: -104 yuan, up 11 yuan; RM05-09: -93 yuan, down 16 yuan; RM09-01: 197 yuan, up 5 yuan; Soybean meal spot in Rizhao: 3000 yuan, unchanged; Soybean meal basis in Rizhao: 86 yuan, down 28 yuan; Rapeseed meal spot in Fujian: 2453 yuan, down 11 yuan; Rapeseed meal basis in Fujian: -34 yuan, up 46 yuan; Spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: 547 yuan, unchanged; Futures price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: 405 yuan, up 6 yuan [19]

Report Title - The report is titled "Weekly Oil Report 20250509: Accumulation of Malaysian Palm Oil Stocks Gradually Realized, Oil Price Spread Repair" [1][2][10] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints Palm Oil - The downside space is limited, with support at the [7700] level for the p2509 contract. The Southeast Asian palm oil production is in a seasonal transition phase, with subsequent production expected to recover, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the medium to long term. The Indonesian B40 policy has not been clearly implemented, and its positive impact is expected to be limited. Domestic inventory is low, and subsequent ship purchases are slow, resulting in tight supply, but low cost - effectiveness restricts demand. Overall, short - term macro sentiment has eased, but there is still a weakening expectation in the future, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the 09 spreads of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm [3] Soybean Oil - The downside space is limited, with support at the [7500] level for the y2509 contract. Globally, South American soybeans are in a continuous high - yield pattern, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The fundamental pressure on US soybeans is limited, but the expected decline in the new - season planting area and the upgrade of China - US tariffs are negative for US soybean exports. CBOT soybeans are under pressure, but the downside space may be limited, with support around 950 cents per bushel. Domestically, the supply of imported soybeans is expected to increase in the second quarter, and the soybean oil inventory is at a neutral level, with supply expected to remain loose. In the medium to long term, the impact of weather is expected to increase due to the significant reduction in US planting area, and the uncertainty of China - US trade relations remains. It is recommended to buy on dips for the y2509 contract, and pay attention to the regression opportunity of the 09 soybean - palm spread and the short - selling opportunity of the oil - tank ratio [3][6] Rapeseed Oil - In the short term, it is prone to rise but the upside space is limited, with resistance at the [9700] level for the OI509 contract. Globally, the supply - demand of oilseeds in the 2024/25 season remains loose, but the supply - demand of rapeseeds has tightened marginally due to the slight reduction in Canadian rapeseed production and frost - induced减产 in the EU. The high - yield expectation of South American new crops still exerts pressure on the oilseed sector. Domestically, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and the supply of near - month rapeseeds and rapeseed oil is expected to remain loose. Recently, China's tariff policy on Canada has strengthened the downside support for rapeseed oil, but the domestic loose supply may limit the upside space. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and there may be phased long - buying opportunities in the medium to long term. Attention should be paid to the regression opportunity of the 09 rapeseed - palm spread [4] Summary by Directory Southeast Asian Palm Oil - The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures market showed narrow - range fluctuations this week. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production is being gradually realized, and the inventory accumulation expectation has put obvious pressure on the futures price. The increase in purchase intentions from China and India and the slight rebound in international crude oil prices led to a rebound after the price hit an eight - month low. High - frequency data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in April increased by 3.6 - 5.1% month - on - month, but production is expected to increase by 14.74 - 19.88% month - on - month, and it is expected that Malaysia will continue to accumulate inventory to 156 - 175 tons in April. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 5 increased by 19.88% month - on - month, and production increased by 60.17% month - on - month. In Indonesia, the export reference price of crude palm oil in May 2025 has been lowered. In India, the import of palm oil increased in March due to post - Ramadan restocking demand, but there are rumors that India may raise the import tariff on edible oils, which may suppress import demand [15][22] US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - CBOT soybean futures fluctuated weakly this week. The ongoing South American soybean harvest season and concerns about demand have put pressure on the market. The good dry weather in the US Midwest is expected to facilitate soybean planting. As of May 4, the US soybean planting rate reached 30%, higher than last year and the five - year average. As of May 6, about 15% of the US soybean - producing areas were affected by drought, similar to the previous week. As of April 24, the cumulative export of US soybeans in the 24/25 season was 4327.96 tons, a 12.78% increase year - on - year, and the completion rate of the USDA's forecast is 95.46%. The weather in the US Midwest is generally good this week, with limited rainfall opportunities later [31][32][33] South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - The South American soybean harvest is coming to an end, and the high - yield expectation is becoming a reality. The USDA's April supply - demand report estimated a record - high production of 169 million tons for Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season and a reduced production of 49 million tons for Argentine soybeans. As of May 3, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 97.7%, a 2.9% increase from last week. Various institutions expect an increase in Brazilian soybean production in the 2024/25 season compared to the previous year. The Argentine soybean harvest progress as of April 29 was accelerating, and the BAGE estimated the 2024/25 Argentine soybean production to be 50 million tons [64][65][69] Global Rapeseeds and Rapeseed Oil - The global rapeseed supply in the 2024/25 season has tightened marginally. The USDA's April report showed a slight decline in global rapeseed production compared to the previous year. Exports and crushing of rapeseeds have both been adjusted downwards. The ending inventory has increased slightly, and the stock - to - consumption ratio has recovered to 10.41%, at a relatively low - to - neutral level in recent years. Canada is expected to see a 1.7% decline in rapeseed planting area in 2025. In the past two weeks, precipitation in the Canadian prairie provinces has been relatively low, but it is expected to improve in the next week. As of May 4, the Canadian rapeseed oil export volume increased by 8.02% week - on - week to 18.45 tons [76][77][78] Domestic Oils Market Review - This week, domestic oils showed a more differentiated performance. Palm oil and soybean oil fluctuated weakly, while rapeseed oil was relatively strong. Palm oil was dragged down by the expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia, and the domestic import profit has been rapidly repaired, stimulating near - month ship purchases. Soybean oil was affected by the weak external market and the unclear macro - environment. Rapeseed oil was supported by China - Canada trade relations and tariff policies, and the dry weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas also contributed to its strength [97] Future Outlook - Palm oil: Supply is expected to be tight in the short term, but medium - to - long - term production increases may limit the upside. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for distant - month palm oil on rallies. The soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm spreads are expected to repair, but the repair rhythm may be slow. - Soybean oil: It is recommended to buy on dips for the y2509 contract. Pay attention to the regression opportunity of the 09 soybean - palm spread and the short - selling opportunity of the oil - tank ratio. - Rapeseed oil: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there may be phased long - buying opportunities in the medium to long term. Pay attention to the export situation in Canada, domestic arrivals, crushing, and提货 situations [97][98][99] Pressing, Production, and Consumption - In the 18th week (April 26 - May 2), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 152.3 tons, and the开机率 was 42.81%. It is expected to increase to 174.3 tons in the 19th week, with an开机率 of 49%. The trading volume of soybean oil decreased. As of April 30, the coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 9.55 tons, a decrease from the previous period, and the rapeseed oil production decreased to 3.92 tons. The提货 volume increased slightly. The trading volume of palm oil increased this week [101][102] Inventory - As of April 28, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils (soybean, palm, and rapeseed) in key domestic regions was 177.88 tons, a 0.90% increase from last week and a 5.94% increase year - on - year. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventory increased slightly, while palm oil inventory decreased slightly [126] Basis and Spread - This week, the soybean oil spot basis was weakly adjusted, with northern prices remaining firm and southern prices starting to decline. The palm oil basis declined steadily, and the rapeseed oil basis was slightly adjusted downwards. As of May 9, the September basis of soybean oil (Tianjin) was 395 yuan/ton, the September basis of palm oil (Guangzhou) was 579 yuan/ton, and the September basis of rapeseed oil (Zhangjiagang) was 230 yuan/ton [155]

油脂油料产业日报 2025/05/07 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东 亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The first scenario is likely to be triggered, and the price of oils and fats may decline. The recent increase in supply and concerns about the decline of high valuations are more certain. The supply shortage of US biodiesel and rapeseed may already be reflected in the high prices of US soybean oil and rapeseed products. It is expected that the price of oils and fats will decline in the near future [2][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Recent Market Review of Oils and Fats - Since April, Trump's trade policy has caused global commodity turmoil. Crude oil prices have dropped significantly due to pessimistic expectations, driving down the overall price of vegetable oils. High-frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly, but the high-frequency export data in the early April was good. The market expects that India and other regions may be replenishing their inventories, and the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April is still at a relatively low level. The price of US soybean oil was strong in April because the domestic inventory of US soybean oil was low, and the US biodiesel policy is expected to significantly increase the consumption of soybean oil. Supported by these two factors, the price of oils and fats has stabilized and fluctuated [4] 2. The Export of Malaysian Palm Oil in April May Fall Short of Expectations, and the Increase in Production and Accumulation of Inventory May Drive Down the Price of Oils and Fats - The latest high-frequency data in April shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 17.03% month-on-month in the first 30 days of April, and the production in April may reach the highest level in the same period in the past five years. The export increased by 3.6%-5.1% month-on-month, reversing the previous recovery trend. If the apparent consumption is estimated at 350,000 tons, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of April may be around 1.75 million tons. If the abnormally high apparent consumption of 450,000 tons in March is considered, the inventory at the end of April may be around 1.65 million tons. Against the background of a significant recovery in production, if the demand countries slow down the pace of inventory replenishment, the accumulation of inventory of Malaysian palm oil will accelerate. The valuation of Malaysian palm oil is usually related to crude oil and the inventory of Malaysian palm oil. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is usually inversely proportional to POGO, and this inverse relationship has become more obvious in recent years with the increase in the blending ratio of biofuels. From the perspective of the data relationship, if the inventory of Malaysian palm oil recovers to the level of 1.7 million tons, the spread usually drops to around $200/ton, while the current spread level is $400/ton. Therefore, against the background that the accumulation of inventory of Malaysian palm oil may reach the level of 1.7 million tons, there may be room for the price of oils and fats to decline in the future [5] 3. The US Biodiesel Policy May Be Bullish in the Medium Term, but the Short-Term Supply Pressure Still Needs to Be Released - In the previous WeChat official account post, it was believed that for palm oil to show a clear upward or downward trend in the future, new drivers are needed from crude oil, production, and demand. There are two scenarios. The first scenario is that the production recovers significantly in April and May, leading to the expectation of inventory accumulation; or the price of crude oil drops significantly, resulting in a decrease in demand and impaired valuation; or a combination of the two, triggering a significant decline scenario. The second scenario is that the production of palm oil fails to increase before July, just meeting the demand. The macroeconomy stabilizes, and there are weather problems in the planting of soybeans and rapeseed, which is likely to lead to a high-level oscillation scenario. Currently, the first scenario is likely to be triggered, and the price of oils and fats may decline. The market is discussing the bullish factors of the supply-side reduction in rapeseed production in Europe and the low inventory of rapeseed in the producing areas, as well as the demand-side US soybean oil biodiesel policy. Due to the low average temperature in Europe, the growth period of rapeseed is longer, and the drought in the early stage reached a historical level. However, the recent rainfall has recovered, and the extent of the production reduction still needs further verification. According to the data of Statistics Canada, the exportable inventory of Canadian rapeseed is almost exhausted, while according to the data of USDA, there is still a certain amount of export. The recent continuous increase in the futures price also reflects the tight supply of rapeseed in the country. However, the inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is relatively high. Under the situation that the palm oil producing areas are actively reducing prices and the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, the difficulty of destocking domestic rapeseed oil in the future also needs to be tested. The US soybean oil biodiesel policy is expected to increase the demand for soybean oil by 500,000-1 million tons per year due to the expected increase in the blending obligation, but the specific details and the use of foreign raw materials still need to be determined by the official, which is expected to be established at some point this year. Overall, the recent increase in supply and concerns about the decline of high valuations are more certain. The supply shortage of US biodiesel and rapeseed may already be reflected in the high prices of US soybean oil and rapeseed products. It is expected that the price of oils and fats will decline in the near future [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the domestic oil market was volatile. At the beginning of the month, oils tumbled due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war. Then, the market panic eased, and the tightening short - term supply supported the prices. However, with the arrival of imported soybeans and the increase in the oil mill operating rate, the prices fell again at the end of the month. The global oilseed supply is expected to remain loose, while the global vegetable oil market shows a supply - tightening expectation [3][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Domestic Futures**: In April, domestic soybean oil futures fell nearly 2%, palm oil futures fell nearly 4%, and rapeseed oil futures fluctuated slightly. CBOT soybean futures rose slightly, and Malaysian palm oil futures fell nearly 10% [3]. - **Registration of Warehouse Receipts**: The number of soybean oil warehouse receipts decreased by 553 to 4005, palm oil warehouse receipts remained at 0, and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 484 to 1357 [10]. - **Basis of Three Major Oils**: The basis of soybean oil increased by 186 to 440, palm oil increased by 58 to 600, and rapeseed oil increased by 99 to 128 [14]. - **CFTC Managed Fund Net Positions**: As of the week of April 22, the net long positions of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil managed funds increased by 87066 and 99060 respectively compared with the same period last month [17]. - **Soybean Premiums at Major Ports**: As of April 30, 2025, the premium of South American port soybeans decreased by 30 cents/bushel to 145 cents/bushel, and that of the Gulf of Mexico decreased by 10 cents/bushel to 198 cents/bushel [18]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Global Oilseed and Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand - **Global Oilseeds**: In the 2024/25 season, global oilseed production was lowered, trade volume and crushing volume were raised, and ending stocks were increased. The overall supply of oilseeds is expected to remain loose [22]. - **Global Vegetable Oils**: In the 2024/25 season, global vegetable oil production, trade volume, and consumption are all expected to decline, and ending stocks are reduced, showing a supply - tightening expectation [22]. - **Global Three - Major Oils Consumption**: In 2024/25, the biodiesel consumption of the global three - major oils was 53686 thousand tons, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 4.25%. The edible consumption was 124759 thousand tons, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 4.31% [25]. 3.2.2 Soybean Supply and Demand - **Global Soybeans**: In 2024/25, global soybean production is expected to be slightly lowered, beginning stocks are significantly raised, and ending stocks are increased by 1.06 million tons to 122.5 million tons. The global soybean crushing volume increased by 2 million tons to 354.8 million tons [28]. - **US Soybeans**: As of the 33rd week of the 2024/25 season, the cumulative US soybean exports increased by 12.2% year - on - year, but exports to China decreased by 5.83% year - on - year. In March 2025, US soybean crushing volume decreased by 4.47% year - on - year, and the December soybean oil inventory decreased by 19.07% year - on - year. As of April 28, 2025, the US soybean sowing rate was 18% [32][35][39][42]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: In March 2025, Brazilian soybean exports were 15.7237 million tons, and the cumulative exports from January to March increased by 3.97% year - on - year. The estimated exports in April were 14.31 million tons [45]. 3.2.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Global Rapeseed**: In 2024/25, the global rapeseed production is expected to be 85.24 million tons, 451 thousand tons lower than the previous forecast, mainly due to the reduction in Canadian production. The ending stocks are expected to be 9.018 million tons, 60 thousand tons lower than the previous forecast [48]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: As of the 37th week of the 2024/25 crushing season, the cumulative Canadian rapeseed exports increased by 72% year - on - year, and the commercial inventory decreased by 13.12% year - on - year. As of March 2025, the Canadian rapeseed crushing volume increased by 6.57% year - on - year, and the cumulative exports from January to March increased by 4.36% year - on - year [53][55]. 3.2.4 Palm Oil Supply and Demand - **Global Palm Oil**: In 2024/25, global palm oil production is expected to be 78.229 million tons, 1.3 million tons lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 3%. Consumption is expected to be 76.953 million tons, 1.215 million tons lower than the previous month's forecast, with a year - on - year growth of 3.17%. Ending stocks are expected to be 14.786 million tons, 52 thousand tons lower than the previous month's forecast [58][59]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In March 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 0.38% year - on - year, exports decreased by 24.34% year - on - year, and inventory decreased by 8.76% year - on - year [67]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In January 2025, Indonesian palm oil production, exports, and inventory were all lower than the same period last year [71]. 3.2.5 Other Countries' Oil - Related Data - **India**: In March 2025, Indian vegetable oil imports decreased by 15.55% year - on - year, and inventory decreased by 28.03% year - on - year [73]. - **China**: In March 2025, China's soybean imports decreased by 36.77% year - on - year, rapeseed imports decreased by 34.46% year - on - year, rapeseed oil imports increased by 76.88% year - on - year, and palm oil imports increased by 3% year - on - year. As of the 17th week of 2025, the inventory and operating rate of domestic soybean, rapeseed, and palm oil showed different changes [77][82][85][88][93][95][97].

小K侃有色 . 我是小K，欢迎大家来扎营、吐槽，集股债商汇于一体，无分析不成文、无数学不乐趣的辣评集中营。 以下文章来源于小K侃有色 ，作者小K侃有色 文 | 小K侃有色 来源 | 小K侃有色 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 自4月2日对等关税以来大宗商品跳空暴跌8.88%（最高点到最低点），后随着90天暂停关税市场沿着关税缓和的路径修复了部分 下跌，目前自最低点上涨了3.92%，目前看跳空缺口修复无望。在此期间波动率快速收窄，技术上也面临20日均线的压制，静等 下一步指引。如果从板块上来看，工业品弱于农产品，工业品之于关税作用于需求远大于供给，农产品作用于供给远大于需求。 还有一个现象，这一波下跌实际上是压缩利润的，最明显的例子就是化工品相对于油品来说反弹是更弱的，扒开各个品种细分来 看也大致如此。 接下来大宗市场路向何方？我们也来唠一唠。 一、宏观上，今年也是宏观大年，不过相对于前两年来说是宏观利空年 国际货币基金组织(IMF)当地时间4月22日发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》，将2025年全球经济增长预期下调至2.8%，较今年1月 预测值低0.5个百分点。IMF预计，2026年全球经济将增 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oils and fats fluctuated and rose. Soybean oil's spot tightness boosted the futures price, and the basis was firm before May Day. Palm oil entered the production - increasing season, and the basis decreased significantly this week. Rapeseed oil followed the other oils and fats due to quiet news. Recently, the main contracts of oils and fats shifted to 09, and the soybean - palm oil spread changed little. As of April 25, the spread of soybean - palm oil 09 contract was - 442, and that of rapeseed - palm oil 09 contract was 1130 [2][17] - Looking ahead, soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Palm oil is expected to have large fluctuations, and rapeseed oil still has some opportunities to rise [3][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Quotes - Futures: This week, the closing price of palm oil 2509 contract was 8376 yuan/ton, up 244 yuan or 3% week - on - week; soybean oil 2509 contract was 7934 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan or 2.98%; rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9506 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan or 3.1% [12] - Spot: In the Guangdong area, the spot price of palm oil was 9030 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.56%, with a spot basis of P09 + 654, down 194 yuan. In the Tianjin area, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8284 yuan/ton, up 224 yuan or 2.78%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 350, down 6 yuan. In the Jiangsu area, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9626 yuan/ton, up 286 yuan or 3.06%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 120, up 1 [12] Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: From April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.88% month - on - month. During April 17 - 24, 6 new ships were purchased in China. The consumption of palm oil remained at a rigid level, and the weekly trading volume was limited [13] - Inventory: As of April 18, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 38.44 tons, up 1.33 tons or 3.58% week - on - week, and down 11.24 tons or 22.62% year - on - year [13] Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: In March 2025, China imported 350.3 million tons of soybeans, down 36.78% year - on - year. From January to March, the cumulative import was 1710.9 million tons, down 7.9%. It is expected that the domestic soybean supply will turn abundant in the second quarter. From April 12 - 18, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 131.54 million tons, with an operating rate of 36.98% [14] - Demand: During the statistical period, the total trading volume of bulk soybean oil in key domestic oil mills was 22.03 million tons, with an average daily volume of 4.406 million tons, up 17.376% week - on - week [14] - Inventory: As of April 18, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of China was 65.04 million tons, down 4.35 million tons or 6.27% week - on - week, and down 18.86 million tons or 22.48% year - on - year [15] Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: As of April 18, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 7 million tons, remaining the same as the previous period. The production of rapeseed oil was 2.87 million tons, also unchanged. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to increase next week, and the production of rapeseed oil will also increase [16] - Inventory: As of this week, the inventory of imported rapeseed was 32 million tons, down 2.8 million tons week - on - week. The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 12.05 million tons, down 0.65 million tons [16] Future Outlook - Soybean oil: As of the week of April 20, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than the five - year average of 5%. About 23% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. The CBOT soybean is expected to fluctuate strongly. Due to the soybean clearance issue in China, oil mills are short of soybeans, but the supply will increase in the second quarter. Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [3][18] - Palm oil: From April 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.88% month - on - month. The export increased from April 1 - 20. It is expected that the soybean - palm oil spread will continue to repair, and palm oil is expected to have large fluctuations [4][19][20] - Rapeseed oil: As of April 20, the export volume of rapeseed this year reached 752.2 million tons, up 72.3% year - on - year. The supply of rapeseed is tight. Although the inventory of rapeseed oil in ports is high, the market circulation is scarce. Rapeseed oil still has some opportunities to rise [6][21]