Report Core Views - For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in high - level consolidation. Short - term, it will test the support at 4500 ringgit, and may briefly drop to 4350 ringgit. After stabilization, it may return to 4500 ringgit. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are also in high - level consolidation, testing the 9500 yuan support. If it holds above 9500 yuan, it may rise to 9800 - 10000 yuan by the end of the month, then likely start a downward trend due to September's potential production increase [3]. - For soybean oil, affected by biodiesel policy news, CBOT soybeans are in high - level consolidation. In the domestic market, demand has started, boosting futures. However, the expected US soybean harvest may cause CBOT soybeans to fall, limiting the increase of Dalian soybean oil. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil is around 8500 yuan. If US soybean and soybean oil futures fall, it may drop to 8300 yuan; otherwise, it may rise to 8700 yuan [4]. - For soybean meal, as of the end of the 34th week in 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory is 106.3 tons, up 1.04% from last week. Affected by environmental policies, some oil mills in North China will shut down briefly at the end of the month. Prices of oil mills and traders have risen by 10 - 30 yuan/ton [18]. Market Data Fats and Oils Price and Spread - **Palm Oil**: BMD palm oil closed at 4507 ringgit/ton, down 0.49%. Dalian palm oil futures: 01 contract at 9582 yuan/ton, down 0.1%; 05 at 9290 yuan/ton, down 0.04%; 09 at 9488 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The spread between P 1 - 5 is 298 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [5][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: CBOT soybean oil closed at 55.2 cents/pound, up 2.66%. Dalian soybean oil futures: 01 contract at 8488 yuan/ton, up 0.94%; 05 at 8180 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; 09 at 8536 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The spread between Y 1 - 5 is 316 yuan/ton, unchanged [5][14]. - **Price Spread**: Y - P 01 is - 1134 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; Y/M 01 is 2.739, unchanged [5]. Oilseed Futures Price - **Soybean Meal**: 01 contract closed at 3117, up 29 (0.94%); 05 at 2844, up 14 (0.49%); 09 at 3061, up 20 (0.66%) [19]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: 01 contract closed at 2547, up 4 (0.16%); 05 at 2473, up 4 (0.16%); 09 at 2602, up 18 (0.7%) [19]. Spread of Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal Spread**: M01 - 05 is 258, unchanged; M05 - 09 is - 211, up 18; M09 - 01 is - 47, down 4 [20][22]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spread**: RM01 - 05 is 74, down 11; RM05 - 09 is - 115, up 19; RM09 - 01 is 41, down 8 [20][22].

油脂油料产业日报 2025/08/22 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed weak fluctuations. Pro farmer field surveys indicated good growth of US soybeans, strengthening expectations of high yields for the new season. However, due to the significant reduction of US soybean planting area in the August supply - demand report, there is strong support at the bottom. Dalian meal will mainly fluctuate in a short - term range, and its price is expected to remain firm under the support of import costs [2] - Oils: Night trading of oils closed up. High - frequency data showed an increase in Malaysian palm oil production and exports in August. The sharp increase in August exports boosted palm oil prices. Concerns about Indonesia's inability to meet production recovery expectations and the strict implementation of Indonesia's DMO policy also provided support. But there is a risk of a short - term decline due to US biodiesel news and profit - taking [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Domestic Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8394 for soybean oil, 9500 for palm oil, 9791 for rapeseed oil, 3113 for soybean meal, 2610 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were - 20, - 54, - 37, - 47, - 57, and 26 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.24%, - 0.57%, - 3.15%, - 1.49%, - 2.14%, and 0.29% [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: Spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, etc., and ratios like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, etc., showed different values compared to the previous values [1] International Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4423 for BMD palm oil, 1036 for CBOT soybeans, 51 for CBOT US soybean oil, and 297 for CBOT US soybean meal. The price changes were - 25, 20, 2, and - 3 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.56%, 1.88%, 4.59%, and - 1.08% [1] Spot Market Domestic Spot - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and meals in different regions showed different percentage changes. For example, the prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8570 and 8690 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.12% and 0.12% [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads between different products, such as the basis of various oils and meals and the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, showed different values compared to the previous values [1] Import and Profit - Import profits of different sources of soybeans, palm oil, and rapeseed showed different values compared to the previous values. For example, the import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil was - 283, compared to - 242 previously [1] Warehouse Receipts - Warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts showed different values compared to the previous values. For example, the warehouse receipt of soybean oil was 15,310, the same as the previous value [1] Industry Information - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons at the end of June, despite increased production and accelerated exports. Exports in June reached 3.61 million tons, a sharp increase of 35.4% month - on - month [2] - From August 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.46% month - on - month, and production increased by 0.3% month - on - month [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on oilseeds and oils, including US soybean export sales, Indian rapeseed oil imports, Malaysian palm oil production, and Indonesian palm oil inventory and exports [1] - It also shows the spot prices of related products from August 15 - 21, 2025 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - From August 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased 0.30% month - on - month, with a 2.12% drop in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.46% increase in oil extraction rate [1] - As of August 14, US current market - year soybean export sales net decreased 0.57 million tons, down 98% from the previous week and 105% from the four - week average; next market - year sales net increased 114.26 million tons; export shipments were 51.79 million tons, down 3% from the previous week and up 9% from the four - week average [1] - Due to a price increase to a three - and - a - half - year high, India imported 6,000 tons of rapeseed oil from the UAE in August, the first import in five years, and soybean oil imports are also rising [1] - In June, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons, exports increased 35.4% month - on - month to 3.61 million tons, and production increased 15.8% month - on - month to 4.82 million tons [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from August 15 - 21, 2025 are provided [2]

Group 1 - The forum focused on how the futures market can assist the oilseed and oil industry in responding to trade changes, emphasizing the importance of oilseed safety as a critical component of food security in China [1][2] - The China Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE) aims to provide a high-quality risk management system for the industry, adapting to the current global economic adjustments and increasing trade uncertainties [1][2] - The oilseed and oil market in China plays a significant role globally, being the second-largest importer and the largest consumer of rapeseed oil and meal, as well as the largest importer and consumer of peanuts [2] Group 2 - COFCO Oils has been actively using futures and derivative tools to mitigate price volatility risks, ensuring stable operations within the industry [3] - The oilseed and oil sector has developed a relatively complete derivative system, which serves as a valuable risk management tool for the industry [3] - Discussions at the forum included topics such as changes in global oilseed trade patterns, challenges and opportunities for import and processing enterprises, and the use of futures derivatives to support stable operations and national oil supply security [3]

Group 1 - The current risks faced by the domestic oilseed industry are primarily due to changes in international trade policies, leading to adjustments in the global supply chain [1] - China’s Ministry of Commerce has initiated an anti-dumping investigation against imported canola seeds from Canada, with a preliminary determination of dumping and a temporary anti-dumping measure involving a 75.8% deposit [1] - The resilience of China's oilseed supply chain is improving, with Australian canola seeds potentially filling the import gap left by Canada, as Australia produces between 6 million to 8 million tons, half of which are non-GMO varieties [1] Group 2 - Oilseed processing companies need to actively respond to policy changes to mitigate risks, with flexible production capabilities in southern and southwestern regions allowing for diversified operations [2] - The import of soybean meal from Argentina has significantly increased, although the absolute quantity remains low, indicating a need for further observation [2] - The import landscape for peanuts is changing, with zero tariffs and low shipping costs enhancing the competitiveness of African peanuts in the Chinese market [2] Group 3 - The shift in the import structure is prompting a three-dimensional restructuring of the domestic peanut industry, with a 63% reduction in production capacity from Africa due to the Sudan conflict, leading to a 77.7% decrease in exports to China [2] - Domestic planting area for peanuts has increased by 5%, with oilseed processing companies now sourcing 80% of their peanuts from domestic production [2] - The current market dynamics are seen as a starting point for the revaluation of the peanut industry, with short-term strategies focusing on domestic supply and risk management through futures [3]

Group 1 - The forum focused on how the futures market can assist the oilseed and oil industry in responding to trade changes [2][3] - The oilseed and oil industry is crucial for food security and economic stability in China, with challenges in stabilizing planting areas and managing price risks [3][4] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has developed oilseed futures over the past decade, becoming an essential risk management tool for industry players [3][4] Group 2 - The global economic landscape is undergoing significant changes, leading to increased trade uncertainties and price volatility in the oilseed and oil market [3][4] - The domestic supply of edible vegetable oil remains robust despite a reduction in imports, with global supply continuing to increase [5] - The development of the biodiesel industry is significantly impacting global oilseed supply and demand, with nearly 20% of vegetable oil used for biodiesel [5][6] Group 3 - The ZCE is committed to enhancing market functions and service quality to help the oilseed industry navigate global trade challenges [4] - The domestic market for rapeseed and peanut oil is expected to face risks due to fluctuations in supply and demand, influenced by weather conditions and import levels [6][7] - The peanut industry in China is transitioning from a net exporter to a net importer, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [7][8] Group 4 - The future of the peanut market is projected to grow, driven by consumption, industry upgrades, and technological innovation [8] - The oilseed market is experiencing a divergence in oil and meal prices, with strong oil prices supported by biodiesel demand while meal prices remain under pressure [8]

Core Insights - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum focused on risk management in the oilseed and oil market, highlighting the importance of canola oil and peanuts in China's agricultural landscape [1][2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has opened its canola oil, canola meal, and peanut futures and options to foreign traders, with significant participation from international grain merchants [1] - The oilseed and oil futures have become essential risk management tools for industry chain enterprises, contributing to food security in China [1][2] Group 1 - Canola oil is the second-largest plant oil in terms of production and consumption in China, while peanuts have the highest self-sufficiency rate among major oilseed crops [1] - In the first seven months of 2023, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported an average daily trading volume of 4.69 million contracts for oilseed and oil futures and options, a 21% increase year-on-year [1] - The average daily open interest reached 8.09 million contracts, reflecting a 33% year-on-year growth, with institutional clients accounting for nearly 70% of the positions [1] Group 2 - The oilseed and oil futures market has evolved beyond being a mere "safe haven" to becoming a stabilizing force for numerous enterprises in China [2] - Industry leaders suggest that in the face of increasing international policy and market uncertainties, enterprises should utilize hedging and financial tools to enhance operational resilience [2] - Risk management in the oilseed sector should closely monitor global production, import-export dynamics, tariff policy adjustments, and biodiesel industry policies [2]

Group 1 - The forum focused on how the futures market can assist the oilseed and oil industry in responding to trade changes, highlighting the importance of oilseed safety as a critical component of food security in China [1][2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) emphasized its mission to support the real economy by providing a high-quality risk management system through product innovation and collaboration with the industry [1][2] - The global trade landscape is undergoing significant changes, which poses challenges to the stability and competitiveness of the oilseed and oil industry, necessitating enhanced market functions and service quality [2] Group 2 - COFCO Oils Holdings has effectively utilized futures and derivative tools to mitigate price volatility risks, ensuring stable operations within the oilseed and oil sector [3] - The oilseed and oil sector has developed a relatively complete derivative product system, which serves as a valuable risk management tool for the industry [3] - Industry representatives discussed the changing global oilseed trade landscape and the challenges and opportunities faced by import and processing enterprises during a roundtable discussion [3]

Group 1 - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum was held, focusing on the agricultural products market, particularly edible oils [1] - Wang Zhaohui, Deputy General Manager of COFCO Oils, discussed the risks and responses in the domestic canola and peanut oil markets due to changes in supply and demand [1] Group 2 - For the canola oil market, it is projected that in the 2025/2026 season, China will have an additional supply of 19.6 million tons of rapeseed, with domestic production at 17.1 million tons and imports at 2.5 million tons [1] - Domestic canola oil supply is expected to be sufficient before the fourth quarter of this year, influenced by production and import levels [1] Group 3 - In the peanut oil market, the National Grain and Oil Center indicates that peanut production will increase by 400,000 tons in the 2024/2025 season, with consumption and crushing demand rising by 100,000 tons and 300,000 tons respectively [1] - Due to reduced imports, the ending stocks for the 2024/2025 season are expected to drop to low levels [1] - Current peanut crops are in a critical growth stage, and future weather conditions during growth and harvest, as well as yield and import levels, need to be monitored [1]