Core Viewpoint - The biopharmaceutical sector is expected to experience significant performance divergence among its sub-sectors before the third quarter of 2025, with industry revenue and profit growth rates initially declining before rebounding, as the pressures from high baselines, centralized procurement, and anti-corruption measures have been largely absorbed [1] Group 1: Innovative Drugs - The commercial insurance innovation drug catalog is set to debut in 2025, which is anticipated to drive incremental payments for innovative drug products [2] - The domestic new drug development is accelerating, with lower costs and favorable macro policies, leading to a global leadership position in innovative drug development, contributing approximately one-third of the global innovative R&D pipeline by 2025 [2] - The overseas rights BD transactions are driving the revaluation of innovative drug assets, with a continuous increase in the proportion of Chinese innovative drug license-outs [2] Group 2: CXO and Life Sciences - The CXO market is witnessing improved supply-demand dynamics, with CDMO companies entering a high prosperity cycle due to strong demand for new molecules like ADCs and peptides [2] - The life sciences upstream sector is experiencing a comprehensive recovery in downstream demand, with listed companies actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions to expand [3] Group 3: AI in Healthcare - The "Artificial Intelligence+" policy is leading to widespread applications of AI in healthcare, with significant developments driven by companies like Deepseek [3] Group 4: High-end Medical Equipment - The high-end medical equipment sector is poised for growth due to domestic procurement recovery, import substitution, and accelerated international expansion [3] Group 5: Orthopedic Joint Consumables - The negative impact of centralized procurement is clearing, and the aging population is driving market expansion, with potential growth in surgical robotics [3] Group 6: Traditional Chinese Medicine - There are signs of operational improvement in traditional Chinese medicine, with factors like flu season and basic drug catalog adjustments potentially catalyzing a new market cycle [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The recent performance of the pharmaceutical sector has been sluggish, with the innovative drug sector experiencing a significant rise in expectations earlier this year, now undergoing a correction. However, innovative medical devices are expected to benefit from ongoing government support for medical equipment upgrades and accelerated domestic replacement of high-end medical devices, alongside continuous expansion into overseas markets. A recovery is anticipated starting in Q3 2025, with performance gradually improving in 2026 [3][9]. - The high-end medical device sector is driven by the recovery of in-hospital procurement, suggesting a focus on companies such as United Imaging, Shandong Weigao, and Mindray Medical. The demand for consumer medical devices is gradually recovering, with a shift in market share from imported brands, indicating potential in companies like Kefu Medical and Yuyue Medical. The orthopedic consumables market has reached a price floor, with opportunities for market share growth in orthopedic robotics and overseas expansion, highlighting companies like Aikang Medical and Chuangli Medical [3][9]. - The pharmaceutical equipment sector is undergoing a cyclical recovery, with rapid overseas growth opening new avenues for growth. Domestic margins are expected to stabilize and profitability to improve, with a return to rational competition anticipated from late 2024. The recovery in innovative drug financing and frequent business development transactions are expected to drive a revival in contract manufacturing organizations (CMOs), positively impacting the pharmaceutical equipment industry. Additionally, global strategic safety backups and commitments from multinational pharmaceutical companies to invest in the U.S. market are projected to accelerate fixed asset expenditures in the pharmaceutical sector over the next three years, with a focus on companies like Senson International and Dongfulong [3][9]. - In the CXO and upstream life sciences supply chain, leading global CXO companies such as WuXi AppTec and Kanglong Huacheng are highlighted. Domestic clinical CRO leaders like Tigermed and Pruce are also recommended, along with resource-based CXOs such as Zhaoyan New Drug and Mediso. The upstream life sciences supply chain includes companies like Baipusais and Haier Biomedical [3][9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's return was -1.04% last week, ranking 17th among 31 sub-industry indices. The medical services sub-sector had the highest weekly return at 1.67%, while the pharmaceutical commercial sub-sector had a return of -4.26% [3][9]. Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing low performance of the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs, while highlighting the potential recovery in innovative medical devices and the pharmaceutical equipment sector [3][9]. Recommendations - Specific companies to watch include United Imaging, Mindray Medical, Kefu Medical, and Aikang Medical in the high-end medical device sector, as well as Senson International and WuXi AppTec in the pharmaceutical equipment and CXO sectors [3][9].

Group 1: Acquisition Announcement - Via Biotechnology (01873) announced that Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (Sobi) has reached an acquisition agreement for Arthrosi, with a total transaction value of up to $1.5 billion, including $950 million upfront and up to $550 million in regulatory and commercial milestone payments, expected to be completed in the first half of 2026 [1] - Via Biotechnology anticipates a maximum investment return of approximately $40 million from this transaction, contingent on subsequent regulatory approvals and commercialization milestones [6] Group 2: Stock Performance - Following the announcement, Via Biotechnology's stock opened high on December 15, reaching a peak of HKD 2.21, a 13.92% increase, but the market sentiment quickly reversed, leading to a significant drop in stock price later in the day [6] - The stock has been in a downward trend for two months, with a peak of HKD 3.27 on October 8, followed by a decline to a low of HKD 1.80 on November 24, representing a maximum drop of 44.95% [7] - The stock's trading volume during the recent price increases was significantly higher than during previous periods, indicating a "volume-price rise" characteristic, but the October rally showed signs of weakness with declining trading volumes [8][9] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Valuation - The stock's profit-taking behavior has been observed, with the proportion of profitable shares dropping from 100% on October 8 to 24.69% by December 12, while the average cost remains at HKD 2.30 [11] - The current market sentiment reflects a cautious approach towards AI investments, with a shift from enthusiasm to prudence, impacting Via Biotechnology as an AI concept stock [13] - Despite recent declines, Via Biotechnology's price-to-sales (PS) ratio is currently at 2.05, significantly lower than the industry average of 8.66, suggesting that the company may be undervalued [18] Group 4: Business Model and Financial Performance - Via Biotechnology has been actively investing in and incubating high-potential biotech startups through an "Equity for Service" model, exchanging early drug development services for equity stakes, with 93 companies incubated and 18 achieving partial or full exits [15] - The company's AI-driven drug development services are becoming a significant revenue driver, with AI-related orders accounting for 12% of new signed orders [14] - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of RMB 832 million, a 15.27% decrease year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 4.28% to RMB 122 million, with a gross margin of 40.8% [14]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Pharmaceutical Industry Industry Overview - **Industry**: Pharmaceutical Industry - **Rating**: Leading - **2026 Outlook**: Value recovery, upward trend continues, selective layout amidst differentiation [1] Core Insights and Arguments - **Industry Trends**: - The industry is expected to maintain a relatively fast growth rate despite tightening drug regulations and increasing challenges in new drug development in the U.S. [2] - The integration trend within the industry is just beginning, with leading players in high-growth segments showing strong long-term certainty [2] - **Private Hospitals**: - High-quality private hospital targets are recommended as cost control pressures ease and outdated capacities are eliminated, allowing for a return to faster growth [3] - Recommended stocks include Gushengtang and Haijia Medical, which are expected to rebound in the short term and have clear long-term expansion paths [3] - **Valuation Summary**: - A detailed table of various pharmaceutical companies with their stock codes, ratings, target prices, closing prices, earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings ratios (P/E), and other financial metrics is provided [4] Important but Overlooked Content - **Market Performance**: - The MSCI China Pharmaceutical Index increased by 62.0% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 31.8 percentage points [10] - The pharmaceutical sector has officially entered a rebound phase, with significant performance differentiation among sub-sectors [10] - **Policy Environment**: - The policy environment is improving, with the government supporting innovative drug development and introducing commercial insurance funds to supplement the medical insurance directory [11] - The latest round of medical insurance negotiations has successfully included 127 drugs outside the directory, indicating a shift towards a more balanced pricing strategy [11] - **Innovation and R&D**: - The industry is witnessing a positive cycle of R&D breakthroughs and global licensing, with many companies entering a "R&D investment - clinical breakthrough - global licensing" cycle [11] - As of September 2025, Chinese pharmaceutical companies have completed 103 overseas transactions, exceeding 77% of the total transaction amount for 2024 [11] - **Financial Performance**: - The overall revenue of the A-share pharmaceutical sector showed a marginal recovery in Q3 2025, with a 0.7% year-on-year increase, indicating strong operational resilience [17] - The sector's earnings growth expectations are improving, with leading companies showing rapid recovery in performance [11][20] - **Investment Opportunities**: - The report emphasizes two main investment lines: focusing on innovative companies with strong differentiation and product export potential, and capitalizing on the recovery of valuation multiples and earnings growth [32][34] - Specific recommendations include companies like Sanofi Pharmaceutical, Deqi Pharmaceutical, and Baiji Shenzhou, which have rich catalysts and are still undervalued [35] - **AI in Healthcare**: - The application of AI in healthcare is highlighted as a new theme for industry innovation, with significant market expansion potential [33] - **Future Outlook**: - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to maintain a stable upward trend in 2026, with a focus on fundamental performance and valuation [30] - The introduction of the commercial insurance innovative drug directory and ongoing policy reforms are anticipated to further enhance market sentiment and fundamental expectations [37]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][76] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of external demand-driven CXO investment opportunities due to the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the elimination of policy uncertainties related to the new Biosecurity Act [4][29] - The report highlights a mixed performance in the pharmaceutical sector, with a notable focus on innovative drugs and medical devices as key investment areas for the upcoming year [5][34] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index fell by 1.1% during the week of December 8-12, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.0 percentage points, ranking 15th among CITIC's primary industry classifications [3][34] - Year-to-date, the CITIC Pharmaceutical Biotech Index has risen by 15.6%, still underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.8 percentage points, ranking 16th [3][34] - Top-performing stocks for the week included Zhaoyan New Drug (+23.4%), Hotgen Biotech (+16.8%), and Haichuang Pharmaceutical (+13.9%) [3][53] Investment Opportunities - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to improve overseas biotech investment and financing conditions, which will benefit CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) orders [4][21] - The new Biosecurity Act, which has passed the House and is awaiting Senate approval, is expected to have a limited impact on external demand for CXO companies, alleviating valuation pressures in the sector [4][28] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's overall valuation as of December 12, 2025, is 28.79, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.17, with a relative valuation premium of 12.02% compared to the broader market [44] - The total trading volume for the pharmaceutical sector during the week was 423.43 billion, accounting for 4.3% of the total A-share trading volume, with a 3.9% increase from the previous week [50][53]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive changes in the Biodefense Act and highlights the investment opportunities in external demand-oriented CXO companies due to the expected improvement in overseas financing and the easing of policy uncertainties [4][26] - The report notes that the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut is expected to enhance overseas investment in the biotech sector, which will benefit CDMO companies through increased overseas orders [4][21] - The new Biodefense Act is less stringent than previous versions, which is expected to have a limited impact on external demand-oriented CXO companies, potentially lifting valuation pressures on the sector [4][26] Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of December 8-12, 2025, the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index fell by 1.1%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.0 percentage points, ranking 15th among CITIC's primary industry classifications [3][32] - Year-to-date, the CITIC Pharmaceutical and Biotech Index has risen by 15.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.8 percentage points, ranking 16th among CITIC's industry classifications [3][32] - The top five performing stocks for the week were: Zhaoyan New Drug (+23.4%), Rejing Biotech (+16.8%), Haichuang Pharmaceutical (+13.9%), Wanze Co. (+13.4%), and Zhongyao Holdings (+13%) [3][49] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs, particularly those with revenue and commercialization capabilities, as well as potential big BD targets based on technological and industrial trends [5] - It also highlights opportunities in medical devices, especially in areas like endoscopy and robotics, and emphasizes the importance of innovative consumables supported by national policies [5] - The report indicates a shift towards domestic demand-driven companies as the central economic work conference emphasizes building a strong domestic market [5] Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on the following companies: Kangfang Biotech, WuXi AppTec, Kanglong Huacheng, Baiaosaitu, Bairen Medical, and Kangzhong Medical for December [5][12]

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a surge in innovative products, with clear domestic demand and significant potential for international expansion [4][14][25] - Investment opportunities are concentrated in innovative drugs and their supply chains, with a notable performance from CRO/CMO and chemical pharmaceuticals [9][15][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation as the primary solution to industry challenges, driven by stable demand and supportive policies [26][32][41] Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical sector has faced revenue declines, with a 0.9% year-on-year decrease in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, and net profit down by 2.2% [15][16] - The innovative drug sector has outperformed, with CRO/CMO and chemical pharmaceuticals showing net profit growth of 31.0% and 16.6% respectively [17][18] - The overall market is characterized by low fund holdings and historical valuation bottoms, indicating high investment value [20][25] Demand and Payment Dynamics - The demand for healthcare services is steadily increasing, with a projected 5% growth in total medical visits and hospital admissions in 2024 [26][28] - The aging population is expected to drive long-term demand, with 220 million people aged 65 and above by 2050 [28][30] - The medical insurance fund's income growth has outpaced expenditure growth, leading to a significant increase in fund reserves [32][36] Financing and Market Trends - The IPO market for healthcare has rebounded, with 28 IPOs in the first three quarters of 2025, a 100% increase from the previous year [42][43] - License-out transactions have surged, with transaction numbers increasing by 41% and total amounts reaching $92 billion, indicating a robust market for innovative drug licensing [48][50] - The number of IND applications and new clinical trials for innovative drugs has been steadily increasing, with a notable rise in NDA approvals [53][57] Technological Advancements - The report highlights the emergence of new technologies such as ADC and small nucleic acids, with domestic companies leading in these areas [60] - The focus on dual antibodies and GLP-1 drugs is expected to drive significant growth, with multiple development directions emerging [9][60] - The report notes that domestic companies are increasingly recognized for their innovative capabilities, particularly in the ADC space [60]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is transitioning from high growth to moderate growth, with a trend of convergence between technology and value sectors in the new cycle [1] Group 1: Market Cycle Analysis - Understanding cyclical changes is essential for future market judgments, with significant shifts observed over the past two decades [2] - The first phase (2000-2010) was dominated by cyclical growth, benefiting heavy industries, resource sectors, and low-end manufacturing [3] - The second phase (2010-2021) saw a shift towards growth, driven by urbanization and the rise of consumer demand and emerging services, with the ChiNext index experiencing rapid growth [3] - Since 2021, the market has gradually shifted back to moderate growth, with value styles regaining dominance, as evidenced by the performance of the STAR Market index compared to the CSI Dividend Index [3] - Long-term migration of industry weights indicates structural upgrades, with technology, consumer healthcare, and cyclical finance gaining share in the CSI 300 over the past 16 years [3] Group 2: Future Outlook for 2026 - The outlook for 2026 is summarized by three keywords: technology leading, value following, and returning to leaders, based on long-term industry structural evolution [4] - The current AI narrative, represented by the STAR Market, mirrors the technology cycle from 2011 to 2015, but with different supporting backgrounds such as demographic changes and geopolitical factors [4] - Key signals for market improvement include PPI and inventory conditions, with expectations for corporate performance to improve in mid-2024 following a low PPI point [4][5] Group 3: Investment Directions - The market is witnessing a recovery in value sectors, which may present structural opportunities in 2026, especially after a year of significant underperformance compared to growth sectors [6] - Investment focus will include cyclical industries (oil, coal, basic metals), non-banking sectors (insurance, brokerage), high ROE industries (internet, traditional consumption), and new cycle industries (new energy, power equipment) [6] - Continuous themes may emerge in CXO, innovative pharmaceuticals, AI applications, and humanoid robotics, although market volatility is expected to increase [6] Group 4: Research and Investment Strategy - The exponential growth of fund numbers, asset management scale, and listed companies has increased information density, posing challenges for research and investment [7] - The company is developing a systematic investment approach through professional division of labor and industrialized production lines to meet client needs [7] - AI is anticipated to become a core capability in active management, fundamentally reshaping the research and investment chain over the next three years [7]

➢ 每日大市点评 12 月 9 日，投资者观望本周美联储议息结果，港股升势乏力。恒生指数高开后一路下跌，收盘下跌 331 点（1.3%），收 报 25,434 点；恒生科技指数下跌 107 点（1.9%），收盘报 5,554 点；全天大市成交额微增至 2,102 亿元。港股通净流入 减少至 5.3 亿元。盘面上，美国国会料通过法案，限制中资生物科技公司获得华府资助合约，生物科技医药股逆市造好， 药明生物（2269 HK）升 1.9%；药明康德（2359 HK）升 1.1%。特朗普允许英伟达向中国出售 H200 芯片，港股芯片板块 下跌，中芯国际（981 HK）和华虹半导体（1347 HK）下跌 4%-5%。内房股方面，雅居乐（3383 HK）被提出清盘呈请， 周二跌 18.4%，其他内房股受到拖累，龙湖（960 HK）跌 6%；华润置地（1109 HK）跌 3.7%；中海外（688 HK）跌 3.1%。 港股短期将维持震荡格局。 2025 年 12 月 10 日 星期三 国家统计局将于 12 月 10 日公布 11 月物价数据。市场预期，11 月食品价格上行将推动当月全国居民消费价格（CPI）同 比增速回升； ...

进入12月，药明康德迎来了成立的第25个年头。四分之一世纪的时光，这家CXO企业从上海一间650平 方米的实验室，成长为在亚洲、欧洲、北美拥有超过20个研发生产基地、服务全球数千家客户的一体化 CRDMO赋能平台。在这段发展历程中，药明康德用实践诠释了何谓穿越周期的"长期主义"。 一体化CRDMO模式打通增长通路 药明康德得以在多个经济与行业周期中持续增长，核心驱动力正是其长期坚持的"一体化，端到 端"CRDMO业务模式。这一模式实现了药物发现与研究(R)、工艺开发(D)和商业化生产(M)的无缝贯 通，通过内部高效协同形成增长飞轮。 例如，药明康德在靶向蛋白降解(TPD)领域的发展，正是其CRDMO模式优势的重要体现。早在科学转 化的初期，药明康德就从R端捕捉到创新趋势，于近10年前开始布局相关能力和技术，并跟随前沿科学 陆续构建了涵盖多种分子类型的技术平台。另一方面，R端对下游D&M端业务起到引流作用。如今， 已有超过18.8万种复杂的TPD化合物从药明康德的赋能平台走出，其中70多种已进入临床前候选药物阶 段，10多种已进入后期开发阶段。 在下游，D&M端的规模化、一体化能力，实现技术的快速放大与高效产出 ...