板块题材上，医疗商业、商业航天板块活跃，PCB、电池板块调整。盘面上，医疗商业板块走强，华人健康20CM涨停， 鹭燕医药、重药控股等数只个股涨停。商业航天板块表现强势，天银机电20CM涨停，航天环宇、铂力特等数只个股涨超 10%，顺灏股份、神剑股份等数只个股涨停。PCB板块调整，生益电子、生益科技跌超5%，沪电股份、东山精密跌超4%。电 池板块调整，海科新源、天华新能跌超4%。 截至午盘，上证指数涨0.16%，深证成指跌0.85%，创业板指跌1.81%，北证50涨0.64%。全市场成交额10592亿元，较上日 成交额放量190亿元。 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 光大期货金融期货日报 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场全天震荡走强，创业板指大涨超 3%。个股涨多跌少，沪深京三市超 3600 | | | | 股飘红，今日成交 1.83 万亿。截止收盘沪指涨 1.19%，深成指涨 2.4%，创业 | | | | 板指涨 3.39%。近期，股指期货市场围绕 10 月以来的中枢下沿持续震荡，大 | | | | 小盘指数分化有限，板块间轮动频繁，市场情绪相对温和。12 月政治局会议 | | | | 与中央经济工作会议相继召开，短期内政策对市场的影响有望增强。从政策 | | | | 表述来看，重要会议提到"实现'十五五'良好开局"，预计明年 5%的 GDP | | | | 增长目标不会改变。政策发力方向仍主要集中在"稳内需"和"促进新质生 | | | 股指 | 产力快速发展"。会议提到，"必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合"， | 震荡 | | | 提振居民收入水平和消费能力是宏观通胀预期回升的重要条件。同时强调 | | | | "保持 ...

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that export control measures on key metals have become a crucial advantage for China in the geopolitical competition with major economies like the US and EU. This advantage is rooted in China's resource superiority and a complete industrial system that is difficult for developed economies to replicate in the short term [10][11]. - China leads in the production of 30 out of 44 key minerals, with significant advantages in rare earths, gallium, germanium, and antimony. For instance, China holds nearly half of the world's rare earth reserves and dominates the processing technology, with a 92% global market share in high-performance neodymium-iron-boron magnets [10][11]. Fixed Income - The report indicates that the bond market is influenced by recent important meetings, with a shift in sentiment following the Central Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference. The 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.8285% to 1.8425% during the week, reflecting market reactions to policy expectations [12][13]. - The issuance of green bonds saw a significant increase, with 29 new bonds issued totaling approximately 36.75 billion yuan, up 16.01 billion yuan from the previous week. The secondary market saw a total transaction volume of 64.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7 billion yuan [16]. Industry - The automotive industry is at a pivotal point in 2025, with expectations for electric vehicle penetration to reach 50%-80% over the next three years. Major players in intelligent driving have successfully implemented complex scenarios in urban environments, enhancing user experience [21]. - The report evaluates the intelligent driving experiences of seven major manufacturers, noting that Huawei and Xiaopeng lead in handling complex scenarios, while the gap in capabilities among manufacturers is narrowing compared to earlier quarters [21].

每经AI快讯，PCB板块领跌，下跌1.84%，其中鼎泰高科下跌4.44%，宏和科技下跌4.1%，本川智能下 跌3.87%，沪电股份、大族数控、胜宏科技跌超3%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

大族数控（301200.SZ）12月17日在投资者互动平台表示，公司与行业头部客户保持紧密沟通，积极参 与新材料的加工工艺研发，确保公司相关产品满足客户生产技术要求。在AI算力需求的推动下，PCB产 业投资扩产不断，公司目前在手订单充足，在手订单正有序生产和交付中，将根据客户新增需求情况动 态调整产能。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：您好近期随着M9材料应用的加快，对公司钻孔设备的 利好越来越明确，请问公司扩产情况如何？目前设备的排产状况如何？主打产品六轴联动的订单如何？ ...

Group 1 - The communication industry saw a net inflow of 4.529 billion yuan in main funds, significantly higher than other sectors [1] - Among the 13 industries with net inflows, the non-ferrous metals and electronics sectors had net inflows of 1.793 billion yuan and 1.177 billion yuan, respectively [1] - The defense industry experienced the largest net outflow of 4.029 billion yuan, followed by the automotive and agriculture sectors, each with outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - In individual stocks, 44 stocks had net inflows exceeding 200 million yuan, with 9 stocks seeing inflows over 500 million yuan [2] - The "CPO" stocks, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, saw significant inflows of 1.426 billion yuan, 1.422 billion yuan, and 901 million yuan, respectively [2] - Shenghong Technology reported a net inflow of 1.175 billion yuan, with plans to expand production capacity for high-end HDI and multi-layer PCBs [2] Group 3 - At the market close, the main funds had a net inflow of 3.323 billion yuan, with the communication, electronics, mechanical equipment, and power equipment sectors leading the inflows [3] - Individual stocks such as Xinyi Sheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Shennan Circuit had net inflows exceeding 200 million yuan at the close [3] - Notable net outflows at the close included Pingtan Development and Tongyu Communication, each exceeding 100 million yuan [3]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut and dovish signals from Powell have led to a decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, while concerns over AI investment bubbles have caused a downturn in U.S. stocks [1][15][16] - Analysts expect November non-farm employment to show a weak increase of 50,000 jobs, with a high standard deviation of 33,000, indicating significant market divergence [1][15][16] - The anticipated CPI for November is expected to be +3.1% year-on-year, with core CPI also at +3%, maintaining inflation around the 3% mark [1][15][16] Financial Products - The A-share market outlook suggests maintaining patience while waiting for stabilization in overseas markets, with a macro timing model score of -2 indicating a potential adjustment in the A-share index [2][17] - The report notes that the technology growth sector may regain attractiveness after adjustments in November, while the small and micro-cap sectors are viewed with caution [2][17] - Significant inflows into ETFs such as A500ETF and Sci-Tech 50ETF indicate some market optimism, despite ongoing concerns about AI investment bubbles [2][17] Industry Insights - The report highlights the PCB drilling process as a key beneficiary of high-end PCB development, recommending domestic leaders in drilling equipment and consumables [10] - The environmental industry is expected to benefit from the central economic work conference's focus on green transformation and energy independence, with investment opportunities in clean energy and recycling sectors [11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of the "dual carbon" goals in driving the green transition, with specific recommendations for companies in clean energy and waste management sectors [12] Fixed Income - The fixed income report suggests that the bond market may not experience the same downward trend in interest rates as seen from 2022 to 2024, indicating a need for a more flexible approach to bond market operations [5][21] - The issuance of green bonds has increased significantly, with 29 new bonds issued in the week of December 8-12, totaling approximately 36.75 billion yuan, reflecting growing interest in sustainable finance [7] - The report also notes a substantial increase in secondary capital bonds, with a total transaction volume of approximately 329.2 billion yuan during the same period [8]

Summary of Conference Call on Technology Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the AI industry, particularly the development trends of AI models and their applications in various sectors, including storage, computing power, and PCB markets [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments AI Model Development - The trend in AI model development emphasizes enhancing intelligence density, stability, and cost efficiency under unit computing power, with domestic companies like Deepseek and Tongyi Qianwen excelling in cost optimization and open-source initiatives [1][2]. - Recent releases include Google's Gemini 3, which restructured search functionalities, and OpenAI's GPT-5.2, showing significant improvements over previous versions [2]. Productization of AI Models - AI models are increasingly being productized, with examples such as Google's Gemini 3 and the Doubao app, which utilizes operating system-level permissions for cross-app price comparisons [1][3][4]. - The Robot Taxi industry is projected to reach a market size of 100 billion RMB by 2035, with a penetration rate of 10%, indicating a shift from conceptual discussions to practical implementations [3][14]. Storage and Computing Power Trends - The AI industry is driving growth in upstream storage and computing power, with DRAM capital expenditures expected to exceed NAND, and DDR4 prices strengthening due to supply structure adjustments [1][6][7]. - TrendForce predicts DRAM capital expenditures could reach $61 billion by 2026, a 14-15% increase, while NAND is expected to grow by 5% to over $22 billion [7]. PCB Market Insights - The PCB market is currently chaotic, but investment opportunities in Google's ASIC chain are seen as stronger than those in NV chains, with recommendations for companies like ShenNan, Huadian, and Dongshan [11]. - The introduction of mid-plane designs in PCBs is expected to enhance system stability and drive demand and prices upward [9][10]. End-User Market and Future Products - The end-user market is expected to see innovative products such as OpenAI hardware and Apple AI glasses, with specific companies recommended for investment [12]. - The upcoming Siri iteration in 2026 is anticipated to enhance Apple's valuation [12]. Robot Taxi Industry Analysis - The Robot Taxi model focuses on providing a consistent user experience rather than merely competing on price, with local governments showing positive attitudes towards its development [13][14]. - The industry has transitioned from conceptual hype to practical validation, with companies like Waymo and domestic players like Xiaoma Zhixing and Wenyuan Zhixing making significant progress [15]. Autonomous Driving Technology - L4 autonomous driving technology is expected to have a short-term advantage, while L2+ technology companies like Xiaopeng Motors and Horizon Robotics may also see valuation opportunities [16][17]. Additional Important Insights - The emphasis on product design and user experience in AI applications is crucial for future competitiveness [5]. - The need for substantial storage resources in both training and inference phases of AI models highlights the importance of selecting the right stocks in the semiconductor sector [6].

Group 1: AI Industry Trends - The AI industry is transitioning from cloud-based computing to edge devices, with significant advancements in hardware capabilities being essential for practical applications [2][3] - High costs associated with AI inference and training are major barriers to widespread adoption, prompting a need for cost-effective solutions [3][4] - The demand for printed circuit boards (PCBs) is surging due to the AI boom, with leading companies like Pengding Holdings experiencing increased profitability and market valuation [4][5] Group 2: Company Innovations and Strategies - AMD has introduced solutions that reduce the cost of deploying AI models on edge devices, making advanced AI applications more accessible across various sectors [2] - Midea Group is focusing on the integration of AI and robotics, with a strong emphasis on developing humanoid robots for industrial and commercial applications [5][6] - Companies like Haalo are exploring the Robotaxi market, indicating a growing recognition of the commercial viability of AI-driven transportation solutions [9][10] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The AI sector faces challenges in commercializing applications and controlling costs, with many companies yet to achieve profitability [8][9] - The integration of AI into traditional industries is seen as a strategic necessity for survival and growth, with companies like Liaoning Chengda pivoting towards technology-driven sectors [12] - The need for high-quality data and deep industry understanding is critical for companies to maintain a competitive edge in the evolving AI landscape [11][12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The engineering machinery industry is characterized by high cost-performance, with profit growth relying on overseas markets while the domestic market is experiencing a reversal of difficulties [1][7] - The forklift market has significant potential, driven by interest rate cuts in Europe and the US, and the maturity of unmanned forklift technology [1][13] - The export chain benefits from US interest rate cuts and the expected recovery of manufacturing in Europe and the US [1][6] Core Companies and Investment Recommendations - **Sany Heavy Industry** and **XCMG** are recommended for their growth potential, with valuations at 16x and just over 10x respectively, and expected growth rates of 30% and 20% [1][7] - **Nuwei Co.** is highlighted for its high cost-performance, rapid order growth, and potential in water and power valve sectors, with a projected profit growth of 40% [1][15] - **Jereh** is noted for its high valuation due to fast order fulfillment in gas turbine business, with a potential market cap between 80 billion and 120 billion [1][14] - In the semiconductor equipment sector, **North Huachuang**, **Zhongwei**, **Weida**, and **Maiwei** are recommended based on expected storage expansion and increased domestic production rates [1][16] Market Trends and Performance - The PCB and lithium battery sectors performed well in 2025, with many stocks achieving multiple-fold increases [1][4] - The engineering machinery market is improving, with notable growth in small excavators driven by specific regional demands [1][10][9] - The export of engineering machinery accounts for 50% of total sales, with significant growth in large excavators, particularly in Africa and the Middle East [1][11] Future Development Trends - The engineering machinery industry is expected to see a shift towards electric machinery, particularly in mining equipment, driven by ESG requirements [1][12] - The forklift market is poised for growth due to the high cost of labor in Europe and the US, with unmanned forklifts expected to gain traction [1][13] - The photovoltaic equipment sector is anticipated to benefit from new technologies and capital expenditure opportunities, particularly for companies like **Maiwei** and **Aotewi** [1][17] Specific Investment Opportunities - The PCB sector presents historical opportunities, especially in the drilling segment, with expected capital expenditure growth of 70%-80% [1][18] - Liquid cooling technology is seen as a promising area in AI applications, with potential for significant growth as server cabinets are deployed [1][19][20] Conclusion - The engineering machinery and related sectors are positioned for growth, driven by overseas demand, technological advancements, and favorable market conditions. Key companies are recommended based on their growth potential and market positioning.