1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term price trend is expected to be volatile [16] - Stock Index Futures: Suggest balanced allocation of various stock indices [19] - US Dollar: Short - term volatility is expected [23] - US Stock Index Futures: Be cautious about the risk of correction [26] - Treasury Bond Futures: Long positions can be held, and trading positions should be treated with a volatile mindset [29] - Soybean Meal: Domestic and foreign futures prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [31] - Live Pigs: Mainly operate with range - bound trading [34] - Rebar/HRC: On the spot side, it is recommended to hedge on rallies [38] - Corn Starch: Future uncertainty is high [39] - Corn: New crop short positions can consider entering the market lightly in advance [42] - Thermal Coal: Prices are expected to remain flat in July [43] - Iron Ore: Look for short - selling opportunities around $100 [44] - Coking Coal/Coke: Pay attention to the sustainability of demand, and the upside space may be limited [46] - Copper: The market is expected to decline in the short - term, with a short - term bearish strategy [50] - Lead: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks and consider short - put opportunities [52] - Zinc: Look for opportunities to short on rallies and manage positions well [56] - Nickel: In the short - term, it is expected to trade in a narrow range at a low level, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [58] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to buying on dips and positive arbitrage opportunities [62] - LPG: Prices are expected to remain weakly volatile with insufficient upward drivers [66] - Crude Oil: Short - term range - bound trading is expected [69] - Styrene: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies and consider medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [72] - Caustic Soda: The short - term market is expected to be volatile [74] - Pulp: The market is expected to be volatile [77] - PVC: The subsequent market may have limited upside [78] - Bottle Chips: Look for opportunities to expand processing margins by buying on dips [80] - PX: Short - term volatility adjustment, and the medium - term gap will widen [82] - PTA: Short - term price volatility adjustment, and pay attention to the impact of PX maintenance in the medium - term [84] - Soda Ash: Maintain a view of short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [85] - Float Glass: Consider long glass and short soda ash cross - variety arbitrage [86] - Container Freight Rate: The central price of the market may move up further [87] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, which impact the inflation expectations of the Federal Reserve, the risk appetite of the market, and the confidence in terminal demand growth [22][49] - The inflation data in June deviated slightly from expectations, with CPI exceeding expectations and PPI falling short. The overall price level is still low, and the upstream price decline is obvious, but it has little impact on market risk preference [28] - In the commodity market, different varieties have different supply - demand situations. Some are affected by seasonal factors, some by production and inventory changes, and some by policy adjustments [33][43][62] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The 10 - year US Treasury auction data is good, and the Fed's meeting minutes show reduced economic uncertainty. Gold prices oscillated and closed higher, supported near the 60 - day moving average. Short - term gold prices are expected to be volatile [14][15][16] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council issued new policies to support stable employment. The stock market rose and then fell, with cooling market sentiment but still high trading volume. The core factors are the uncertainty of overseas tariff policies and the mismatch between corporate profit growth and valuation [17][18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed's meeting minutes show differences among officials in inflation expectations. Trump announced new tariff letters. The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short - term [21][22][23] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The EU is urging the US to lift tariffs. The Fed's meeting minutes show differences in interest rate expectations. The US stock market is at a position with insufficient pricing of negative factors, and there is a risk of correction [24][25][26] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - In June, CPI exceeded expectations and PPI fell short. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and long positions can be held [27][28][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release the July supply - demand report. Market concerns about trade wars and US soybean exports are increasing. Domestic soybean meal spot is weak. Short - term prices are expected to be volatile [30][31] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - New Wufeng's pig sales increased in the first half of the year. In July, the supply is still high, and the demand is gradually recovering, with intensified long - short competition. It is recommended to trade within a range [32][33][34] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The passenger car market retail sales increased in June. Peru imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese wire rods. Steel prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [35][36][38] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch production and operating rates decreased this week, and inventory increased. The demand is in the off - season, and future uncertainty is high [39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Port corn inventories decreased. Market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to short new crop corn lightly in advance [40][41][42] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - Due to high - temperature weather, coal demand increased. Although production and transportation were affected by rain, prices are expected to remain flat in July [43] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Russian company invested in an iron ore project. Ore prices rebounded with the black market, but the upside is limited. Look for short - selling opportunities around $100 [44] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in the southwest is stable. The market is affected by macro factors, and the upside space may be limited [45][46] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - A mining company's copper production increased. Argentina adjusted mining policies. Chile is waiting for US communication on copper tariffs. Copper prices are expected to decline in the short - term [47][48][50] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread is in contango. A lead mine may enter the Chinese market in the third - quarter. Lead prices are expected to rise gradually, and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [51][52] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread is in contango. A zinc mine plans to expand production. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [53][55][56] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - An Indonesian company acquired a nickel mine stake. Nickel prices are expected to trade in a narrow range at a low level in the short - term, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [57][58] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - New lithium ore was discovered in Hunan, and a lithium project in Zimbabwe restarted. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise, and pay attention to buying on dips and positive arbitrage opportunities [60][61][62] 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (LPG) - India plans to increase LPG imports from the US. US C3 inventory increased. LPG prices are expected to be weakly volatile [63][64][66] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Kazakhstan plans to maintain current production until the end of the year. US EIA crude inventory increased. Oil prices are expected to trade in a range in the short - term [67][68][69] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene port inventory increased. Pure benzene is expected to reduce inventory in July - August, but downstream profit margins have decreased. Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [69][70][72] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong is stable. The decline in caustic soda prices has basically ended, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [73][74] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is mostly stable. The market is expected to be volatile [75][77] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - PVC prices rose, but the fundamentals are weakening. The subsequent market may have limited upside [78] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory prices are stable. The industry plans to reduce production in July, and pay attention to opportunities to expand processing margins [79][80] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices rebounded slightly. In the short - term, it will be volatile, and the medium - term gap will widen [81][82] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot basis is stable. Demand is under pressure in the short - term, and pay attention to the impact of PX maintenance in the medium - term [83][84] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash prices are volatile. With high inventory levels, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [85] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices are stable. The market is expected to be volatile, and a long - glass short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy is recommended [86] 3.2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Container freight rates are expected to rise, but there are also negative factors [87]

华泰证券研报表示，节后 猪价持续强于预期、叠加猪企成本持续改善或有望带动盈利超预期，"反内 卷"政策引导或有望利好2025年下半年、及中长期猪价表现，建议关注生猪养殖板块。其中低成本、优 质猪企盈利兑现能力或更强。 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [1] - Muyuan Foods anticipates a net profit of 10.5 billion to 11 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 924.6% to 973.39% [2] - Hongta Securities projects a net profit of 651 million to 696 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of 45% to 55% [3] Group 2: Business Developments - Dazhihui clarifies that it has not engaged in businesses related to "stablecoins," "virtual asset trading," or "cross-border payments," following a significant stock price fluctuation [4] - Bluetech announces a share transfer agreement where its actual controller will change, with the Ma'anshan Municipal Government becoming the actual controller after the transfer of 18% of shares [5] Group 3: Industry Trends - Jiangsu Electric Power reports a 5.01% year-on-year increase in electricity generation for the first half of 2025 [6] - Jin'an Guoji anticipates a non-recurring net profit growth of 4700% to 6300% for the first half of 2025 [6] - New Beiyang expects a non-recurring net profit growth of 650% to 720% for the first half of 2025 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth in the pig farming industry, particularly focusing on the performance of major companies like Muyuan Foods, which is expected to see a substantial increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 due to higher pig output and lower breeding costs [2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Muyuan Foods anticipates a net profit of 10.5 billion to 11 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 924.6% to 973.39% [2]. - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 10.2 billion and 10.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1129.97% to 1190.26% [2]. - The overall sales price for Muyuan Foods is expected to range between 14 yuan/kg and 15 yuan/kg, with a reported average sales price of 14.08 yuan/kg in June, down 20.59% year-on-year [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Trends - A total of 12 listed pig companies have reported a combined output of over 80 million pigs in the first half of the year, with the top three companies (Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and New Hope) accounting for nearly 80% of this output [3][5]. - The industry is experiencing a trend towards "anti-involution," with 30% of pig companies achieving over 50% of their output targets for the year [7]. - The overall pig price remains low, but the comprehensive breeding costs have decreased, allowing for profit margins for breeding companies [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The pig farming industry is witnessing a high concentration, with the top three companies accounting for over 78% of the total output [5]. - The market is currently characterized by an oversupply, with analysts indicating that the overall pig market remains in a state of excess supply despite a slight price increase in late June [6]. - The industry is pushing for policies to reduce the number of breeding sows and control the weight of pigs being sold, which is expected to stabilize pig prices in the long term [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig prices have been recovering since July, with limited fluctuations expected in the second half of the year, despite a weak demand-supply balance in the pig farming industry [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - In June, the average sales price of listed pig companies declined year-on-year and month-on-month due to weak market conditions, with declines ranging from 15% to 20% [2][3]. - Major companies like Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) reported a significant increase in sales volume, achieving a record monthly high of 7.019 million pigs sold in June, with a revenue increase of 27.65% year-on-year [3][4]. - Smaller pig companies showed varied performance, with some doubling their sales while others experienced declines of over 10% [1][2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The average pig price in June hit a 16-month low, dropping to 13.96 yuan/kg, but began to recover in July, reaching 15.31 yuan/kg, the highest since the Spring Festival [2][5]. - The recent price rebound has improved breeding profits, with losses from purchased piglets decreasing to 26.26 yuan per head, while self-breeding profits increased to approximately 119.72 yuan per head [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The current pig cycle has emerged from its bottom, but the industry remains in a state of oversupply, leading to slow recovery in profitability for listed companies [1][6]. - The government has been guiding the industry towards destocking and capacity reduction, with recent reports indicating that capacity control measures may have already begun [1][6][7]. - The number of breeding sows is a key variable affecting future pig prices, with the Ministry of Agriculture suggesting a reduction of around 1 million breeding sows to optimize production [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the pig farming industry may enter a new era of high-quality competition, with a focus on cost control and operational efficiency becoming critical for large-scale farming enterprises [6][7]. - The expected limited fluctuations in pig prices in the second half of the year will depend on consumer demand for pork, with policies likely to provide a price floor [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The report suggests that controlling production capacity from group farms has a sufficiently large radiation scale and strong targeting, which may achieve significant control effects and impacts. In terms of slaughter scale, the degree of scale in the pig farming industry has reached a high level, with the 18 listed pig companies accounting for 24% of the industry's slaughter volume in 2024. The marginal contribution mainly comes from these 18 listed companies, which contributed 120% and 89% of the slaughter volume increment in 2022 and 2023, respectively. In 2024, they maintained growth even in a shrinking industry context, with the weight of group farms in the front-end breeding stock capacity changes also increasing, indicating strong targeting of production capacity control policies [2][6][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Scale and Concentration - The pig farming industry has shown a long-term trend of scale, with the proportion of entities slaughtering over 500 heads increasing from 12% in 2004 to 70% in 2024. The market share of listed companies reached 24% in 2024, indicating a high level of industry concentration. The industry experienced two rounds of accelerated concentration, with the number of small-scale farms decreasing significantly due to environmental regulations and the impact of African swine fever, which forced many small farmers out of the market [7][17][19]. Contribution of Listed Companies - After the African swine fever outbreak, the increase in industry slaughter volume has mainly been driven by the 18 listed companies. In years of declining industry slaughter volume, these companies have shown resilience, contributing positively to overall growth. For instance, in 2022, the listed companies' slaughter volume increased by 34.37 million heads, accounting for 120% of the total industry increment. In 2023, they contributed 23.87 million heads, representing 89% of the total increment. Even in 2024, when the industry faced negative growth, these companies still increased their overall slaughter volume by 9.32 million heads [8][46][47]. Trends in Production Capacity - The report highlights a trend towards specialization within the industry, with group farms gaining importance in front-end production capacity changes. The leading company, Muyuan Foods, maintained stable growth in breeding stock during the industry's contraction phase. From Q1 2024 to Q1 2025, the industry is expected to see a recovery of 470,000 breeding sows, while Muyuan's breeding stock is projected to grow by 340,000 during the same period [51][55]. Capital Expenditure and Market Dynamics - The capital expenditure of listed companies surged during the high-profit period following the African swine fever outbreak, with significant investments made to expand production capacity. However, since 2021, there has been a rationalization in the pace of capacity expansion, with capital expenditures decreasing and the industry experiencing reduced volatility in production capacity [31][40][42]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the pig farming industry is at a critical juncture, with significant contributions from large-scale listed companies and a shift towards more specialized production practices. The targeting of production capacity control policies from group farms is expected to yield positive results in managing industry dynamics [2][6][16].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3497.48, up by 0.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% to 10588.39 [2][6] - The overall market performance indicated that the innovation growth sectors outperformed, while blue-chip stocks lagged behind [6][7] Industry Dynamics - In June 2025, domestic sales of excavators turned positive, with a total of 18,804 units sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [25][26] - The automotive market saw retail sales of 2.084 million units in June 2025, marking an 18.1% year-on-year growth [18][19] Company Tracking - **Muyuan Foods (牧原股份)** reported a total of 38.394 million pigs sold in the first half of 2025, with June sales reaching 8.367 million, a 65% increase year-on-year [27][28] - **Juhua Co., Ltd. (巨化股份)** expects a net profit of 1.97 to 2.13 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant increase of 136% to 155% compared to the previous year, driven by rising prices of fluorinated refrigerants [30][31] - **Hailide (海利得)** plans to implement a second phase of its polyester project in Vietnam, following the successful operation of its first phase [33][34] - **Shengquan Group (圣泉集团)** anticipates a net profit of 491 to 513 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.19% to 54.83% due to growth in advanced electronic materials and battery materials [35][36] - **Xishan Technology (西山科技)** announced a plan for its controlling shareholder to increase its stake in the company by 5 to 10 million yuan, reflecting confidence in the company's future [38][39] Economic Dynamics in Hunan - Hunan's universities achieved a total technology contract transaction amount of 3.031 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.85% [43] - The province has initiated adjustments to its consumer goods replacement program to ensure effective implementation and prevent market overheating [44][46]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the "anti-involution" policy in China, focusing on structural adjustments aimed at increasing the proportion of high-quality supply to achieve industrial upgrades, contrasting with the 2016 policies targeting cyclical supply-demand imbalances in the steel and coal industries [1][6][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Anti-Involution Policy Goals**: The policy aims to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, enhance product quality, and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated production capacity to achieve high-quality development through technological upgrades [2][5]. - **Electricity Consumption vs. Industrial Value Added**: In 2023-2024, China's industrial electricity consumption is expected to grow faster than industrial value added, indicating a slowdown in investment and a necessary capacity clearance [11]. - **Wind Power Sector**: The wind power sector is benefiting from stabilized bidding prices and increased demand, with private companies showing significant profit recovery potential if strict cost control measures are implemented [3][21]. - **Copper Smelting Industry Challenges**: The copper smelting industry faces severe raw material shortages, with over 80% reliance on imports. The TC price is currently negative, indicating unsustainable conditions that may improve with industry consolidation [34]. - **Pig Farming Industry**: The pig farming sector is under pressure from CPI and capacity recovery issues, with policies aimed at controlling sow inventory to stabilize prices [3][39]. Additional Important Content - **New Anti-Unfair Competition Law**: The revised law includes provisions to combat involution-style competition, prohibiting illegal subsidies from local governments and enhancing regulation of low-quality products [7]. - **Differences from Previous Policies**: The current anti-involution policy differs from the 2016 supply-side reforms by focusing on structural quality improvements rather than merely reducing total capacity [6][15]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The conference highlights potential investment opportunities in sectors like wind power, where companies like Goldwind Technology and Yunda shares are recommended due to their cost advantages and recovery potential [21]. - **Challenges in the Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic sector faces challenges such as oversupply in the silicon material segment and financial pressures on companies, necessitating regulatory measures against low-cost sales [16][17]. - **Future of the Construction Materials Sector**: The construction materials sector, particularly in waterproofing and cement, is expected to see consolidation and price increases as inefficient players exit the market [26][29]. Conclusion - The anti-involution policy is set to reshape various industries in China, focusing on quality and efficiency rather than sheer output. Key sectors such as wind power, copper smelting, and the pig farming industry are highlighted for their unique challenges and opportunities in this evolving landscape.

Market Overview - The report highlights a positive trend in the agricultural sector, particularly in the aquaculture, other agricultural product processing, pig farming, food and feed additives, and seed industries, with the agricultural sector index rising by 2.55% during the week of June 30 to July 6, 2025 [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,497.48, reflecting a 0.70% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% to 10,588.39 [2] Key Investment Insights - The report identifies Haida Group as a promising investment opportunity due to the expected recovery in the feed industry, driven by declining upstream raw material prices and improving conditions in the breeding sector [3] - The average price of live pigs in key provinces showed a week-on-week increase, with prices in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan rising by 6.83%, 10.04%, and 1.68% respectively, indicating a positive trend in pig prices [3] - The report suggests that the current market may be overly pessimistic regarding the impact of pig production capacity recovery on profitability, while also overlooking the potential positive effects of declining raw material costs and macroeconomic demand recovery in 2025 [3] Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the cyclical nature of the pig farming industry, emphasizing that the current recovery phase may last longer than market expectations due to the industry's financial constraints and the need for debt reduction rather than rapid capacity expansion [3] - It is noted that the chicken industry may see performance driven by new demand recovery in 2025, with companies like Shengnong Development positioned at the bottom of their performance and valuation cycles, presenting good investment opportunities [3] Recommendations - The report recommends several pig farming stocks, including Wens Foodstuff Group, Shennong Group, Juxing Agriculture, Tangrenshen, and New Hope, based on the anticipated recovery in profitability [3] - For the pet food sector, the report highlights the importance of brand profitability and suggests focusing on leading domestic brands like Guibao Pet Food, which maintain strong sales performance [3][4]

2025年7月9日 星期三 股债 数据体现我国经济韧性,市场避险情绪缓和,建议股指多头持有。市场利率 盘整,国债走势窄幅反弹,国债多头轻仓持有。 黑色 临汾地区部分停产煤矿陆续复产,"反内卷"下成材供应或有望收缩,关注 政策的具体文件落地,需求侧暂无明显增量,螺纹供需弱平衡。 黄金 东南亚产区天气趋于缓和,割胶工作逐步恢复,胶水系需求拖拽,与原料杯 胶价格表现分化。轮胎样本企业产能利用率下行。供需两端矛盾未有明显缓 解,天然橡胶价格仍延续承压。 特朗普延长关税暂缓期,贸易谈判显示乐观情绪,但仍存不确定性。市场对 美联储最早降息时间推至10月,关注本周美联储会议纪要。预计黄金维持高 位震荡。 原木 现货市价格偏稳运行,到港量预计环减,供应中枢下移,供应压力减缓,日 均出库量维持在6.7万方左右,供需矛盾不大,关注原木期货交割对原木价格 的影响。 橡胶 生猪 当前养殖端挺价情绪较强,北方多地生猪走货顺畅,猪价短期或延续涨势, 进入7月后,南方生猪供应预计偏紧,或接棒北方引领新一轮行情上涨。 - 浙江新世纪期货有限公司 - 客服热线:400-700-2828 关注#新世纪期货#微信公众号 了解更多 油粗 美豆种植面 ...