Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market may gradually recover in an oscillatory and progressive manner as the correlation between stocks and bonds weakens and commodity pressure eases, but other markets, seasonal factors, and regulatory policies may cause oscillations during the recovery process. It is recommended to adopt a dumbbell - shaped operation, and long - term bond rates may decline more smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter, with rates expected to hit new lows this year [4][6][18] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Bond Market Performance This Week - This week, both long - term and short - term bonds remained oscillating. The active bonds of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds, 250011.IB and 2500002.IB, changed by - 1.25bps and 0.95bps respectively compared with last week, reaching 1.77% and 2.03%. After the month - end, the capital price remained loose, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit stayed at around 1.67%. Credit interest rates declined slightly, with the 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds falling by 1.7bps and 1.9bps respectively compared with last week, reaching 1.92% and 2.05% [1][9] Weakening Impact of the Stock and Commodity Markets on the Bond Market - The impact of the stock and commodity markets on the bond market has gradually weakened. The 10 - day moving correlation coefficient between the daily interest rate change of the 30 - year active bond and the increase of the Shanghai Composite Index dropped from around 0.8 in late July to around 0.15 currently. On one hand, it is due to the change in bond institutional positions; on the other hand, the relative cost - effectiveness of bonds compared with stocks has gradually increased. Since the end of July, the commodity price index has continued to decline, and the Nanhua Industrial Product Price Index on September 4th has cumulatively dropped by 6.3% compared with the high on July 25th [2][10] Factors Protecting the Bond Market - The loose capital and banks' under - allocation are the main protections for the bond market. The fundamentals are still under pressure, the demand is not strong, and the financing demand is insufficient, so the loose capital situation remains unchanged. The future asset supply will further decline, and the net financing of government bonds in the next 4 months may significantly decrease compared with the same period last year. For banks, the deposit growth rate is rising while the credit growth rate is slowing down, so banks need to increase bond allocation to make up for the gap, and they may have a high willingness to increase allocation [3][10] Reasons for the Oscillatory and Progressive Recovery of the Bond Market - Other markets still impact the bond market. Although the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds has weakened, non - banks still hold a relatively high position in long - term bonds, and a significant rise in the stock market may lead to institutional selling and short - term bond market fluctuations. Seasonal factors may restrict the downward speed of interest rates. September is often a period of interest rate adjustment, and October is an oscillatory period. The new regulations on public fund redemption fees may reduce institutional willingness to invest in bond funds, and the redemption behavior may bring short - term adjustment pressure to the market [4][14][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market has been in a "passive defense" mode, with a "follow - down but not follow - up" pattern. However, as the upward momentum of the stock market weakens, the bond market may gradually shift from "passive defense" to "active repair." Although a trend - based repair may still need to wait, there may be a short - term repair window, allowing for the search of structural opportunities. But the stock - bond "seesaw" logic remains, and further stock market rises could suppress the bond market [4][30][31]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Review: Stable First, Then Decline, and Seasonal Easing of Funds - **Asymmetric Stock - Bond Linkage and Differentiated Long - and Short - End Performance**: The bond market continued the "passive defense" mode. When the stock market adjusted, the bond market's confidence needed to be strengthened, showing an oscillatory repair. When the stock market recovered, the bond market declined almost unilaterally. The long - and short - ends showed different characteristics: the short - end was "easy to rise and hard to fall," and the long - end was "down first, then up." The curve flattened, with the short - end being weak and the medium - and long - ends rising first and then falling. As of 9/5, the yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y government bonds changed by 2.6, - 2, - 1.2, - 2.5BP respectively compared to 8/29 [7][8]. - **Seasonal Easing of Funds at the Beginning of the Month**: The central bank's net reverse - repurchase liquidity withdrawal exceeded one trillion yuan at the beginning of the month, and the funds became seasonally loose. The volatility of fund rates decreased significantly, and the willingness of state - owned banks to lend recovered rapidly. The yields of certificates of deposit (CDs) fluctuated slightly. As of 9/5, compared to 8/29, DR001, DR007, R001, and R007 decreased by 1.32BP, 7.86BP, 5.75BP, and 6.05BP respectively, and the secondary yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y CDs changed by - 0.9, + 1.0, + 1.1, + 0.4, + 0.5BP respectively [15][16]. 3.2 This Week's Focus: Why Does the Bond Market "Follow Down but Not Follow Up"? - **Lack of Clear Driving Forces for Bond Market Repair**: Neither the fund nor the fundamental aspects provided clear driving forces for the bond market's repair. The fund was basically loose enough, mainly providing "bottom - support" rather than "driving strength." The fundamental faced structural repair pressure, and the market had sufficient expectations. The restart of government bond trading was uncertain in the short term [20]. - **Boosted Market Risk Appetite and Potential Negative Pressures**: The continuous efforts in real - estate policies and the rising "anti - involution" expectations boosted market risk appetite. The bond market was still worried about potential negative factors, and the sentiment was weak [21]. - **Absence of Allocation - Disk Support and Increased Bond Market Volatility**: The support of the allocation - disk was limited this year. The net purchase of over - 10 - year interest - rate bonds by relevant institutions decreased marginally. The initiative of the trading - disk to go long was not strong, and there was passive selling pressure. Bond funds were cautious about extending durations [25][26]. 3.3 Next Week's Concerns: Will the Bond Market's "Main Logic" Return? - **Weakening Stock Market Momentum and Bond Market Repair Foundation**: The A - share trading volume declined from its high last week, indicating that the upward momentum of the stock market may be weakening. The market's consensus on the weakening of the stock market's upward momentum will promote the repair of bond market sentiment. After the adjustment, the bond yield curve has certain trading value, and the abundant liquidity can support the bond market's repair [30]. - **Short - Term Repair Window and Potential Risks**: Although a trend - based repair may need to wait, the bond market may have a short - term repair window. However, the stock - bond "seesaw" logic still exists. If the stock market continues to rise moderately, it may suppress the bond market, and the redemption pressure of hybrid products may disrupt the repair process [31].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with only 22,000 new non-farm jobs added in August, significantly below market expectations, paving the way for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][6] - The report highlights that gold prices have surged over 37% this year, driven by expectations of monetary policy easing and macroeconomic uncertainty, with spot gold breaking through $3,600 per ounce, setting a new historical record [2][9] - The report notes that the U.S. Treasury yields are on a downward trend due to weak employment data, with short-term and long-term yields both declining, indicating a market expectation of further rate cuts [4][21] Commodity Market - Gold prices have reached new highs, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3,600.8 per ounce, supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of a rate cut [9][10] - The oil market has experienced significant downward pressure, with WTI crude oil prices dropping from $64.69 per barrel to $61.87 per barrel, amid concerns of oversupply and weak demand [15][16] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased across the board, with the 1-year to 30-year yields falling between 15 to 19 basis points, reflecting market expectations of aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [21][22] - The report indicates that the Chinese bond market is experiencing fluctuations, with short-term yields adjusting more than long-term yields, influenced by market sentiment and policy expectations [23] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index has shown a slight decline, influenced by weak economic data and political uncertainties, with expectations of continued weakness in the dollar [27][28] - The euro has strengthened against the dollar, supported by expectations of a stable European Central Bank policy and moderate economic growth in the Eurozone [37][41] Equity Market - The report notes a mixed performance in global equity markets, with technology stocks benefiting from anticipated rate cuts, while concerns over global economic slowdown and corporate earnings prospects create volatility [51][52] - The Nasdaq index has outperformed due to its high concentration of technology stocks, while European indices have faced downward pressure from economic uncertainties [51][52]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the credit bond industry Core Insights - The report discusses the challenges of achieving excess returns in credit bond investments due to a low interest rate and low credit spread environment, emphasizing the need for effective investment strategies [5] - It outlines a framework for analyzing credit bonds, including market segmentation, historical performance during "asset scarcity" phases, and a five-factor model for credit spreads [5][7] - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the Chinese credit bond market, with total outstanding credit bonds reaching CNY 46.99 trillion by July 2025, of which non-financial credit bonds account for CNY 31.96 trillion [13][14] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Chinese Credit Bond Market - The credit bond market in China has expanded significantly since 2009, with a notable increase in the variety of products available [11][13] - As of July 2025, the total balance of credit bonds is CNY 46.99 trillion, with non-financial credit bonds making up 68% of this total [13][14] 2. Analysis Framework for Credit Bond "Asset Scarcity" - The report analyzes four phases of "asset scarcity" since 2015, identifying key characteristics and predictive indicators for investors [5][7] 3. Historical Review of Credit Spreads - A historical review of credit spreads since 2008 reveals significant fluctuations, with a focus on the factors influencing these changes [5][7] 4. Research Framework for Credit Spreads - The report presents a five-factor model for analyzing credit spreads, noting that while the factors remain the same, the focus has shifted in the current market context [5][7] 5. Common Investment Strategies in the Credit Bond Market - The report discusses various investment strategies, including duration management, credit selection, leverage operations, and tactical trading, which are crucial for navigating the current low spread environment [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring global debt markets alongside domestic markets to understand the current economic environment and potential asset price movements [1]. Group 1: Global Debt Market Changes - The global economy is heavily reliant on debt, with developed countries like the US, Europe, and Japan issuing bonds to sustain their economies [1]. - Recently, a significant crisis has emerged in the global debt market, with Japan's bond market experiencing historic yield increases, such as the 30-year bond yield reaching 3.222%, the highest since 1999 [1][2]. - The surge in bond yields indicates a lack of demand for these bonds, as evidenced by overseas investors selling 6.39 trillion yen (approximately 439 million USD) worth of Japanese bonds in a single month [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The rising yields in Japan are mirrored in other developed countries, with the UK seeing its 30-year bond yield rise to 5.64%, the highest since 1998 [2][3]. - German and French 30-year bond yields have also reached their highest levels since 2011, with monthly increases of approximately 15 and 27 basis points, respectively [3]. - The unusual behavior of US Treasury yields, which are rising despite strong expectations for interest rate cuts, suggests a declining willingness among investors to hold US debt [3]. Group 3: Interconnectedness of Global Bonds - The bonds of developed countries are interconnected, meaning a crisis in one can lead to a cascading effect on others due to the investment strategies of cross-border financial institutions [3][5]. - The decline in demand for bonds from major economies indicates a potential systemic risk, as the collapse of one country's bond market could trigger failures in others [5][6]. - The article warns that the current situation could lead to a global economic crisis, potentially larger than the 2008 financial crisis or the Great Depression of 1929 [6]. Group 4: Implications for Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to remain cautious and consider diversifying their portfolios with recognized safe-haven assets, such as gold, in light of the rising global financial risks [6][7]. - The article stresses the importance of not being complacent with domestic market optimism and recognizing the broader risks present in the global economic landscape [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly as investors expect the Federal Reserve to implement larger rate cuts to support a slowing job market [1][2] - The August non-farm payroll report indicated a stagnation in the labor market for four consecutive months, with a rare downward revision of June's data showing a net decrease in jobs [1] - Market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September have risen to 10.2%, compared to 0% the previous day, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut stands at 89.7% [1] Group 2 - The weak job market has reignited concerns about potential recession risks, with investors adjusting their growth and earnings expectations [2][3] - Despite initial optimism in the market, the weak data led to a reassessment of corporate earnings and economic growth prospects [3] - Short-term volatility is expected, but support from rate cuts and fiscal policies may provide upward momentum for the stock market by 2026 [2][3]

Group 1 - In August, the overall trading activity in the secondary bond market decreased, with a significant contraction in credit bond trading and a narrow fluctuation in credit spreads [1][3] - The total transaction amount in the bond secondary market for August was 372,335.79 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.28% but a month-on-month decrease of 10.06% [1] - The trading volume of credit bonds in August was 74,448.61 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.09% but a month-on-month decline of 14.27% [3] Group 2 - The trading characteristics of credit bonds indicate a trend of credit quality downgrading and duration shortening, with an increase in the popularity of convertible bonds [3] - The transaction amount of urban investment bonds decreased by 12.58%, showing a similar trend of credit quality downgrading, albeit to a lesser extent [3] - The overall credit spread exhibited a trend of first narrowing and then expanding, remaining at a low level for the year [3][4] Group 3 - As of August 29, the median credit spreads for various industries showed significant variation, with home appliances and real estate having the highest spreads at 163.96 bp and 101.10 bp respectively [4] - The home appliance industry experienced a substantial widening of credit spreads by 99.97 bp, attributed to intensified competition [4] - The outlook for the credit bond market suggests a potential recovery in trading activity after a brief consolidation, although the economic recovery remains to be validated by more data [5]

Group 1: Reasons for Rising Japanese Bond Yields - The 10-year Japanese bond yield has reached a new high of 1.63%, the highest since 2008, driven by multiple factors including weak bond auction results and reduced demand from life insurance companies[6][7]. - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 20-year bond auction on May 20 was 2.50, significantly lower than the previous auction's 2.96, indicating waning investor interest[11]. - Japanese life insurance companies, holding 17% of government bonds, are reducing long-term bond allocations due to substantial unrealized losses, with one major insurer reporting a loss of 3.6 trillion yen in FY2024[13]. - Political instability following the ruling party's loss in the July 20 elections has exacerbated bond sell-offs, leading to increased market uncertainty[17]. Group 2: Outlook and Risks - The Japanese bond yield is expected to continue rising over the next six months to a year, primarily driven by domestic inflation and interest rate hike expectations, with potential increases of over 50 basis points if the policy rate reaches 1%[30][36]. - The Japanese government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to remain high at 237%, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability amid rising interest rates[27]. - Risks include a potential debt spiral as rising yields increase debt servicing costs, and the possibility of a "carry trade" unwind, which could lead to market volatility[6][30]. Group 3: Opportunities in Japanese Bonds - The attractiveness of Japanese bonds is increasing as yields rise, making them a viable investment option amid a backdrop of improving economic fundamentals and fiscal outlook[6][30]. - Japan's economy is on a path to recovery, with stable employment and a positive inflation outlook, which supports the long-term investment case for Japanese bonds[6][30]. - Global diversification needs are rising, positioning Japan's bond market as an attractive alternative for investors seeking options beyond the U.S. and European markets[6][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, as of the end of August 2025, the balance of outstanding credit bonds in China was 30.35 trillion yuan. In August 2025, the issuance of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, with a net financing of 519.25 billion yuan [1][9]. - In August 2025, the trading volume and turnover rate of both urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the credit spreads of all levels of urban investment and industrial bonds widened compared with the previous month [2][36][40]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Issuance and Maturity 3.1.1 Credit Bond Issuance - As of the end of August 2025, the balance of outstanding credit bonds was 30.35 trillion yuan. From August 1 to August 31, 2025, the issuance of credit bonds was 1120.493 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 7.94%, with a total repayment of 1068.568 billion yuan and a net financing of 519.25 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: As of the end of August 2025, the balance of outstanding urban investment bonds was 15.32 trillion yuan. In August 2025, the issuance was 499.695 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 19.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.48%, with a net financing of 11.21 billion yuan. Regionally, Jiangsu had the highest issuance, followed by Shandong, Zhejiang, and Chongqing. Ratings - wise, AA + and AAA - rated urban investment bonds accounted for a relatively high proportion [10][13][20]. - **Industrial Bonds**: As of the end of August 2025, the balance of outstanding industrial bonds was 15.03 trillion yuan. In August 2025, the issuance was 620.798 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 22.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.51%, with a net financing of 508.05 billion yuan. By industry, the utility sector had the highest issuance, and in terms of net financing, the utility and oil and petrochemical sectors had large negative net financing amounts [21][24][26]. 3.1.2 Credit Bond Maturity - **Urban Investment Bonds**: From September to December 2025, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Sichuan had relatively large maturity scales of urban investment bonds [27]. - **Industrial Bonds**: From September to December 2025, the utility, non - banking finance, building decoration, transportation, and real estate sectors had relatively large maturity scales of credit bonds [32]. 3.2 Credit Bond Trading and Spreads 3.2.1 Credit Bond Trading - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In August 2025, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 914.612 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 5.97%, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year decreases [36]. - **Industrial Bonds**: In August 2025, the trading volume of industrial bonds was 1268.887 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 8.44%, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year decreases [40]. 3.2.2 Credit Bond Spreads - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In August 2025, the credit spreads of all levels of urban investment bonds widened compared with the previous month. Regionally and by rating, different regions and ratings had different spread levels and changes [42][46]. - **Industrial Bonds**: In August 2025, the credit spreads of all levels of industrial bonds widened compared with the previous month. By industry and rating, different industries and ratings had different spread levels and changes [48][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is expected to continue the "bullish steepening" trend. The current changes in PMI, as a core leading indicator of the economic fundamentals, may reflect "endogenous weak recovery + external pressure transmission". Coupled with the expectations of loose liquidity and policy, the bond market is likely to continue the "bullish steepening" trend. The downward space for interest - rate bond yields has opened up, and the long - end is more cost - effective; for credit bonds, it is necessary to strictly control the risks of low - rated bonds and focus on short - duration high - rated bonds; for convertible bonds, attention should be paid to varieties with strong policy catalysis and underlying stock elasticity [1][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Liquidity Observation**: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 32,343.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 26,150.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6,193.00 billion yuan. Most inter - bank funding prices increased, with DR001 down 8.27BP to 1.3295% and DR007 up 4.89BP to 1.5158%. Exchange - traded funding prices decreased, with overnight GC001 down 2.50BP to 1.2290% and GC007 down 490BP to 1.4840% [15]. - **Primary Market Issuance**: From August 25 to August 31, 2025, the primary market for interest - rate bonds issued 5,025.97 billion yuan, with a total bond repayment of 5,161.89 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of - 135.92 billion yuan. There were no treasury bond issuances during the reporting period. Policy - based financial bonds raised 1,510.00 billion yuan, and local government bond issuances decreased compared to the previous period, raising 3,515.97 billion yuan [28]. - **Secondary Market Trading**: Treasury bond spot yields increased at the long - end. From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.09BP, 2.88BP, 0.02BP, and 2.05BP respectively to 1.3698%, 1.4776%, 1.6322%, and 1.7320%, while the 10 - year treasury bond yield increased by 5.61BP to 1.8379%. The 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 41.11BP to 46.81BP. The spot yields of policy - bank bonds decreased. During the same period, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds decreased by 3.09BP, 0.39BP, 0.36BP, 0.21BP, and 0.25BP respectively to 1.5346%, 1.6916%, 1.7685%, 1.8979%, and 1.8756%. The 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 31.26BP to 34.10BP [34]. 3.2 Credit Bonds - **Primary Market Issuance**: From August 25 to August 31, 2025, the primary market for credit bonds issued 784 new bonds (including inter - bank certificates of deposit), with a total issuance scale of 9,250.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 833.08 billion yuan compared to the previous period, and a net financing of - 2,078.26 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion in terms of the number of issuances. By rating, AAA - rated bonds were issued at 2,147.94 billion yuan, accounting for 59.51%. In terms of maturity, most bonds had a maturity of less than 1 year. By industry, the financial industry had the largest number of issuances [2][45]. - **Secondary Market Trading**: The yields to maturity of credit bonds showed divergence. From August 22 to August 29, 2025, among urban investment bonds, the 5 - year AA - rated bonds had the largest upward movement of 5.94BP, while the 3 - year AA - rated bonds had the largest downward movement of 3.04BP. Among medium - and short - term notes, the 10 - year AA - rated bonds had the largest upward movement of 4.15BP, while the 1 - year AAA - rated bonds had the largest downward movement of 4.39BP [2][52]. - **One - week Credit Default Event Review**: From August 25 to August 31, 2025, the credit bonds of one enterprise defaulted [56]. 3.3 Observation of Major Asset Classes - **Decline in European and American Stock Indices**: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the three major US stock indices declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.19% weekly, the S&P 500 index fell 0.10% weekly, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.19% weekly, closing at 45544.88, 6460.26, and 21455.55 points respectively. The three major European stock indices also declined. The German DAX index fell 1.89% weekly, the French CAC40 index fell 3.34% weekly, and the UK FTSE 100 index fell 1.44% weekly, closing at 23902.21, 7703.90, and 9187.34 points respectively [57][58]. - **Decline in US Treasury Yields**: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds decreased by 4.00BP, 6.00BP, 8.00BP, 6.00BP, and 3.00BP respectively to 3.83%, 3.58%, 3.68%, 3.92%, and 4.23%. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 1.00BP to 40.00BP [61]. - **Strengthening of the US Dollar Index and Weakening of Most Non - US Currencies**: The US dollar index rose 0.13% weekly, and most non - US currencies weakened. From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the British pound against the US dollar fell 0.16% weekly to 1.3505; the euro against the US dollar fell 0.32% weekly to 1.1686; the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose 0.08% weekly to 147.0540; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan fell 0.41% weekly to 7.1030 [63]. - **Increase in Crude Oil and Gold Prices**: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the COMEX gold futures price rose 3.02% weekly to 3,475.50 US dollars per ounce, and the London spot gold price rose 2.85% weekly to 3,429.15 US dollars per ounce. The Brent crude oil price rose 0.58% weekly to 68.12 US dollars per barrel, and the WTI crude oil price rose 0.55% weekly to 64.01 US dollars per barrel [67].