1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [6] - **Pigs**: Oscillating [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [13] - **Sugar**: Oscillating (short - term), Oscillating weakly (long - term) [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating weakly [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market is generally in a state of oscillation. Each variety is affected by different factors, including supply, demand, weather, and policy. For example, the oils and fats market may continue to oscillate weakly due to factors such as good soybean growth and the palm oil production season, while protein meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term with cost support [5][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The U.S. soybean planting area is lower than expected, but the current growth is good. - **Industry Information**: As of June 29, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%. The 2025 U.S. soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than the expected 83.655 million acres. As of June 1, 2025, the U.S. old - crop soybean inventory was 1.01 billion bushels, up 4% year - on - year [5]. - **Logic**: The U.S. soybean planting area being slightly lower than expected and the quarterly inventory being higher than expected offset each other. The macro - environment has uncertainties, and the industrial side shows that U.S. soybean growth is good, and the palm oil production pressure may decrease marginally in June. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the oils and fats may continue to oscillate weakly, but factors such as trade uncertainties and the expected increase in overseas biodiesel consumption of oils may support prices [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The strong Brazilian soybean premium provides cost support for the Dalian soybean meal futures. - **Industry Information**: On July 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes showed different changes. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 41.63 yuan/ton, up 3.71% week - on - week [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the U.S. soybean area is in line with expectations, but the quarterly inventory is increased. Brazil's soybean exports are strong, and China mainly purchases Brazilian soybeans. Domestically, soybean arrivals increase, oil mills' inventory accumulates, and downstream replenishment is insufficient, but cost support exists in the long - run [6]. - **Outlook**: The U.S. soybean is expected to oscillate in a range. Domestic soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price points on dips [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The imported corn auction was sold at a premium, and the spot price remains firm. - **Industry Information**: The Jinzhou Port FOB price was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the domestic corn average price was 2438 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [7]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is mainly rising. The trade volume is reluctant to sell, and the demand is squeezed by wheat. The imported corn auction has limited volume and was sold at a premium. New - crop corn growth is affected by weather [8]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the supply - demand gap expectation, the price may rise, but there may be callbacks due to potential negative impacts of policy - grain auctions [8]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: Farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the impact of subsequent rainfall needs attention. - **Industry Information**: On July 1, 2025, the Henan live pig (foreign ternary) price was 15.15 yuan/kg, up 1% month - on - month, and the live pig futures closing price was 13,865 yuan/ton, down 0.04% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the average slaughter weight is decreasing, but farmers still have the intention to hold back. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets is increasing, and in the long - term, the production capacity is still high. The demand is weak, and the inventory is partially transferred [9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate. Although the average slaughter weight is decreasing, farmers' intention to hold back still exists, and it is currently the off - season for consumption [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The rubber price rose in the afternoon following the overall commodity trend. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and Thailand's raw material market showed different changes. Vietnam's natural rubber exports in the first five months of 2025 decreased by 18% year - on - year [10][11]. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market rose, and the rubber price followed. The raw material price is firm, providing bottom - support. The supply is expected to increase, but the demand is expected to decrease [11]. - **Outlook**: Before new fundamental guidance emerges, it may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [11]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price followed the overall commodity trend, first falling and then rising. - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different changes [12]. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is relatively warm, and the futures price is stable and oscillating. The fundamental trading is not significant, and it mainly follows the trend of natural rubber and the overall commodity market. The overall operating level has declined, and the inventory has slightly increased [12]. - **Outlook**: The external situation may be temporarily controllable, and the correction may not be over. Attention should be paid to the previous low support [12]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures has slowed down due to the upward revision of the U.S. cotton planting area. - **Industry Information**: As of July 1, 2025, the number of registered warrants in the 24/25 season was 10,211, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2][13]. - **Logic**: In the new - crop season, the production of China and other major cotton - producing countries is expected to increase. The U.S. cotton planting area is revised upward. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing support [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate between 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [14]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Due to the lack of positive factors, the sugar price continues to lack upward momentum. - **Industry Information**: As of July 1, 2025, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton [15]. - **Logic**: Domestically, the 24/25 sugar - making season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated imported sugar arrivals. Internationally, the new - crop production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase [15]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected supply surplus. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The fundamentals remain weak, and the pulp futures maintain a weak operation. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong showed different changes [16]. - **Logic**: The pulp import volume remains high, the price is in a downward trend, the demand is in the off - season, and the domestic inventory is high. The pulp price is under pressure to fall, but it is risky to short at the current low level [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate due to weak supply - demand and potential positive impacts from changes in delivery rules [16]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The market has returned to fundamental - driven, and the far - month contracts oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The inventory has decreased due to reduced arrivals, but it is the consumption off - season. The short - term fundamentals are in a weak balance, and the far - month contracts are expected to be weak due to the weak fundamentals [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The far - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly [17]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report also lists the sections for data monitoring of various varieties such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [20][39][52]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards including "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weak", with corresponding explanations of expected price changes and the time period being the next 2 - 12 weeks [169].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamental improvement of palm oil production areas is limited, and the market is bottoming out through fluctuations; the hype about the weather of US soybeans is insufficient, and there is a lack of driving forces for soybean oil [1] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of palm oil futures (day session) was 8,336 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.07%, and the night - session closing price remained unchanged. The closing price of soybean oil futures (day session) was 7,972 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.15%, and the night - session closing price decreased by 0.28%. The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (day session) was 9,477 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.66%, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.08%. The Malaysian palm oil futures closing price was 3,970 ringgit/ton with a daily decrease of 0.43%, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.55%. The CBOT soybean oil futures closing price was 53.65 cents/pound with a daily increase of 1.71% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil futures decreased by 84,471 lots to 479,503 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3,330 lots to 428,231 lots. The trading volume of soybean oil futures decreased by 78,008 lots to 255,064 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7,148 lots to 550,375 lots. The trading volume of rapeseed oil futures decreased by 57,924 lots to 297,121 lots, and the open interest increased by 10,063 lots to 309,340 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 30 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,190 yuan/ton with no change. The spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,500 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 50 yuan. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,005 US dollars/ton with no change [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 94 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 218 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 23 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 1,141 yuan/ton, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 364 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread of palm oil futures was - 24 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil futures was 42 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil futures was 49 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Malaysia**: From June 1 - 30, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 0.23% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 0.65% month - on - month [2] - **Palm Oil in Indonesia**: In May 2025, Indonesia's exports of crude and refined palm oil reached 1.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 53%, and the export value increased by nearly 71% to 1.85 billion US dollars. In the first five months of this year, the cumulative exports reached 8.3 million tons, higher than 8.01 million tons in the same period last year [5] - **US Oilseed Processing**: In May 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 6.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 360,000 tons; the soybean oil output was 2.42 billion pounds, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 7%. The rapeseed crushing volume was 107,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53,182 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 35,629 tons; the rapeseed oil output was 84 million pounds, a month - on - month decrease of 35% and a year - on - year decrease of 28%. The output of US corn distillers dried grains (DDGS) was 1.776 million tons, lower than 2.003 million tons in the same period last year [5] - **South American Soybean Production and Exports**: StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to 168.75 million tons. Anec expected Brazil's soybean exports in June to reach 13.93 million tons and soybean meal exports to be 1.67 million tons. Argentina's agricultural exports in June increased by 87% year - on - year, with export revenues reaching 3.7 billion US dollars [6] - **EU Oilseed Imports**: As of June 29, 2025, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.79 million tons, lower than 3.49 million tons in the same period last year; soybean imports were 14.27 million tons, higher than 13.2 million tons in the same period last year; soybean meal imports were 19.25 million tons, higher than 15.28 million tons in the same period last year; rapeseed imports were 7.33 million tons, higher than 5.68 million tons in the same period last year [6] - **Indian Oilseed Planting**: As of June 27, 2025, the overall planting area of India's summer - sown and autumn - harvested crops increased by 11.3% year - on - year. The planting areas of pulses and rice increased significantly by 37.2% and 47.3% respectively, and the planting areas of oilseeds such as soybeans and peanuts also increased [7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [8]

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 产量预期强劲，原糖持续承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-07-02 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将 ...

印度6月棕榈油进口或超80万吨，马棕油夜盘小幅走高！印度"抄底"能否助力马棕油站上4000关口？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, with good planting and growth conditions in the US, while domestic soybean meal has good demand but obvious inventory pressure [4][6]. - Raw sugar has declined due to the expected increase in global supply, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively in the short term [12]. - Palm oil is in the stage of production increase and inventory accumulation, domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory - building period, and rapeseed oil has a pattern of oversupply but strong bottom support [20]. - US corn has good growth conditions, and domestic corn supply is relatively scarce, with spot prices expected to be strong in the short term and futures to fluctuate narrowly [27][29]. - The pig market's supply - side pressure has eased, and the overall price is expected to be weak [35]. - Peanut spot trading is scarce, and the 10 - contract peanut is expected to be strong in the short term but may decline in the medium - to - long term [41]. - The profit of eggs per catty is in a loss or flat state, and the upward space of the 8 - 9 - month contracts depends on the amount of culled chickens [50]. - The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the opening price of early - maturing apples, and the apple futures price in July is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [54]. - The cotton market is affected by macro - trade policies and fundamentals. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [61]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**：CBOT大豆指数跌0.96%至1033.25美分/蒲，CBOT豆粕指数跌0.42%至286.5美金/短吨 [2]. - **相关资讯**：美豆新作种植面积8340万英亩，6月1日美国大豆结转库存10.1亿蒲；美国大豆优良率66%，出苗率94%，开花率17%，结荚率3%；6月27日当周油厂大豆压榨量248.78万吨，开机率69.93%，大豆库存665.87万吨，豆粕库存69.16万吨 [2][3]. - **逻辑分析**：国际大豆供需宽松，美豆种植生长好但出口一般，巴西产量高卖货慢，阿根廷豆粕压力大；国内豆粕需求好但库存压力明显 [4][6]. - **策略建议**：单边低点少量布局多单，套利MRM09价差扩大，期权观望 [7]. Sugar - **外盘情况**：ICE美糖主力合约跌0.52（3.11%）至16.19美分/磅 [7]. - **重要资讯**：巴西中南部6月上半月甘蔗压榨量预计3987万吨，糖产量252万吨；国内产区白糖报价稳中上升；埃及2026年将实现食糖自给自足，2024/25榨季食糖产量260万吨 [8][9][11]. - **逻辑分析**：原糖受供应增加预期拖累下跌，国内产销节奏快支撑现货，但原糖弱势使配额外进口利润走高，加工糖供应压力将兑现 [12]. - **策略建议**：单边预计短期震荡，套利9 - 1价差止盈，期权虚值比例价差期权 [13][14][15]. Oilseeds and Oils - **外盘情况**：CBOT美豆油主力价格变动 - 0.45%至52.75美分/磅，BMD马棕油主力价格变动 - 0.15%至3981林吉特/吨 [17]. - **相关资讯**：马来西亚6月1 - 30日棕榈油出口量1382460吨，印尼7月毛棕榈油参考价上调；印度取消65000吨毛棕榈油进口订单；美国2025年6月1日大豆库存总量10.1亿蒲式耳，预计种植面积8340万英亩；美国4月用于生物燃料的豆油使用量降至8.29亿磅 [18][19]. - **逻辑分析**：USDA报告后美豆盘面涨跌互现，棕榈油增产累库，国内豆油阶段性累库，菜油供大于求但底部支撑强 [20]. - **交易策略**：单边短期油脂或震荡，回调后适当做多，套利观望，期权观望 [21][22][23]. Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**：CBOT玉米期货外盘回落，12月主力合约回落0.3%，收盘425.0美分/蒲 [26]. - **重要资讯**：CBOT玉米期货收盘互有涨跌，反映美国玉米长势好且供应充足；巴西一茬玉米收割率95.4%，二茬玉米收割率17%；美国玉米优良率73%，吐丝率8%；7月1日北港收购价偏强，华北产区玉米稳定 [27][28]. - **逻辑分析**：美国季度报告持平，外盘玉米企稳，国内玉米供应少，现货相对偏强，09玉米企稳，期现价差缩小 [29]. - **交易策略**：单边外盘09玉米底部震荡，09玉米观望；套利玉米和淀粉套利震荡操作，逢低做扩；期权有现货的可谨慎考虑逢高累沽策略 [30][32][33]. Live Pigs - **相关资讯**：生猪价格震荡偏强，仔猪和母猪价格持平，6月30日全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格上升0.2% [35]. - **逻辑分析**：生猪市场前期规模企业出栏完成进度快，普通养殖户和二次育肥出栏积极性下降，大体重猪源供应减少 [35]. - **策略建议**：单边偏空思路为主，套利LH91正套，期权观望 [36][38]. Peanuts - **重要资讯**：各地花生报价稳定，油厂到货和成交情况一般，花生油报价偏强，花生粕走货少；6月26日国内花生油样本企业花生库存减少6510吨，6月27日花生油库存减少150吨 [39][40]. - **逻辑分析**：花生现货成交少，新季花生稳定，进口量减少，下游消费弱，预计新季种植面积增加，10花生短期偏强震荡，中长期有下跌空间 [41]. - **交易策略**：单边10花生逢高短空，套利观望，期权卖出pk510 - C - 8800期权 [43][44][45]. Eggs - **重要资讯**：全国主流鸡蛋价格多数稳定，部分地区有涨跌；5月全国在产蛋鸡存栏量13.34亿只，样本企业蛋鸡苗月度出苗量4698.5万羽；6月27日一周全国主产区蛋鸡淘鸡出栏量1841万只；6月26日当周全国代表销区鸡蛋销量上升5%；6月26日鸡蛋每斤周度平均盈利 - 0.41元/斤，6月27日蛋鸡养殖预期利润13.84元/羽 [47][48][49]. - **交易逻辑**：单斤鸡蛋利润亏损或持平，盘面期货价格向下空间受限，8、9月合约上涨空间取决于淘汰鸡量 [50]. - **交易策略**：单边梅雨季结束且安全边际高时在远月8、9月合约建仓多单，套利观望，期权卖出看跌期权 [51]. Apples - **重要资讯**：6月18日全国主产区苹果冷库库存量116.49万吨，走货速度环比持平同比减缓；5月鲜苹果进口量1.78万吨，出口量4.55万吨；产地主流成交价格稳定，冷库成交一般；山东烟台栖霞苹果主流价格平稳，2024 - 2025产季栖霞80一二级存储商利润0.9元/斤 [52][53]. - **交易逻辑**：本季苹果库存低支撑早熟苹果开称价格，陕西部分地区坐果略差，7月苹果期货价格大概率震荡略偏强 [54]. - **交易策略**：单边AP10短期逢低建仓多单，套利观望，期权卖出看跌期权 [55][56][57]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**：ICE美棉主力合约跌1.28（1.85%）至68.04美分/磅 [58]. - **重要资讯**：预计美国2025年棉花实际播种面积1012万英亩；截至6月20日，ON - CALL 2512合约上卖方未点价合约增持，24/25年度卖方未点价合约总量减持；棉花现货局部交投略好，基差平稳，2025/26年度新疆新棉预售报价增多 [59][60]. - **交易逻辑**：棉花受中美贸易关系和基本面影响，郑棉短期预计震荡略偏强 [61]. - **交易策略**：单边美棉大概率震荡，郑棉短期震荡偏强，套利观望，期权卖出看跌期权 [61][63].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pulse Daily Report - July 1, 2025: Limited Supply Bullishness, Sideways Market Movement" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Market Performance Futures and Spot Market - **Soybean Meal**: Futures prices showed mixed movements, with different contracts having varying closing prices and changes. Spot basis prices decreased in most regions. For example, the 01 contract of soybean meal closed at 3003 with a gain of 4, and the basis in Tianjin remained at -40. [4] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Futures prices generally increased, and spot basis prices also showed some improvements. For instance, the 05 contract of rapeseed meal closed at 2320 with a gain of 6, and the basis in Guangdong increased by 16 to -116. [4] Spread Analysis - **Monthly Spreads**: Soybean meal monthly spreads had a mixed performance, with some spreads narrowing and others widening. Rapeseed meal monthly spreads showed a phased rebound, mainly influenced by the single - sided movement of the market. [4] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the spreads between soybean meal and sunflower meal, as well as rapeseed meal and sunflower meal, also changed. [4] Market Trends - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean market showed a sideways - down trend as the report lacked bullish drivers, and the market focused on the relatively loose supply - demand situation. [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal market moved sideways with limited changes, while the rapeseed meal market rebounded. [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - **US**: The new - crop balance sheet of US soybeans improved due to the boost from biodiesel policies on crushing. As of the week ending June 15, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 66%. The old - crop export inspection volume in the week ending June 12 was 21.58 tons, and the soybean crushing data in May was good, with the NOPA - caliber soybean crushing volume at 192.829 million bushels, a 1.37% increase from the previous month. [5] - **Brazil**: Brazilian farmers' selling progress was relatively slow and at a low level compared to historical periods. The recent selling progress continued to slow down, and price pressure emerged. The recent crushing volume decreased, and although the April crushing volume was good, the crushing profit was relatively low. It is expected that Brazil may further increase exports. [5] - **Argentina**: The domestic crushing volume may improve, and soybean exports may increase as the prices of terminal products have gradually stabilized. [5] Domestic Market - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic spot market remained relatively loose, with the oil refinery operating rate increasing, sufficient supply, and gradually accumulating inventory. As of June 27, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 248.78 tons, the operating rate was 69.93%, the soybean inventory was 665.87 tons, a 4.37% increase from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 69.16 tons, a 35.9% increase from the previous week. [6] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The demand for rapeseed meal gradually weakened, and although the supply was sufficient, the demand decline and high - level granular rapeseed meal still posed supply pressure. As of the week ending June 27, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil refineries was 4.3 tons, the operating rate was 11.46%, the rapeseed inventory was 18.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.1 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons from the previous week. [6] Group 4: Macro - analysis - The negotiation between China and the US in London was completed, but the market lacked clear information. There were still many uncertainties in international trade, but as the market gradually stabilized, macro - level disturbances decreased. Due to China's high demand for the US soybean market in the long - term, the price was not likely to drop significantly in the short term. [7] Group 5: Logical Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal market showed some pressure, but after the previous bearish factors were gradually reflected, the market rebounded. The overall bullish effect of the report was limited, and the recent upward trend slowed down. Although there were short - term bearish factors, the deep - decline space was limited as the price had dropped significantly. [7] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market moved sideways. The demand support was weak, and the upward space was limited due to the relatively high inventory level. [7] - **Spreads**: The monthly spreads of soybean meal had some support, and the monthly spreads of rapeseed meal were relatively strong. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was expected to widen in the future. [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: It is recommended to continue to make a small - scale long - position layout for the far - month contracts of soybean meal. [8] - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM09 spread. [8] - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [8] Group 7: Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit of soybeans from different origins and shipping periods varied. For example, the crushing profit of soybeans from Argentina in October was - 72.23, showing a decrease compared to the previous day. [9]

Report Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products sector shows mixed performance. Soybean meal rebounds from a low level, while oils fluctuate. Hog prices decline, sugar continues to rise, and other products also present different trends influenced by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and upcoming reports [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - The 2509 contract rebounds from a low level as short - covering occurs before the USDA report. However, with abundant domestic imported soybeans, high oil - mill operation rates, and increasing supply and inventory, the futures price is still under pressure. Technically, it remains weak, and a light - short - position strategy is recommended with support at 2942 and resistance at 2974 [2]. Soybean Oil - The 2509 contract shows a volatile trend of first decline then rise, waiting for the US soybean planting report. Domestic soybean imports and oil - mill压榨量 are high, leading to relatively loose supply and rising inventory, pressuring the futures price. Technically, it turns weak, and a light - short - position strategy is suggested with support at 7920 and resistance at 8012 [3]. Palm Oil - The 2509 contract first declines then rises, narrowing the decline. Crude oil decline, increased Malaysian palm oil production, and slow exports, along with falling domestic import costs and inventory accumulation, pressure the price. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short - position strategy is recommended with support at 8256 and resistance at 8380 [6]. Cotton - The 2509 contract rises then falls as long - profit - taking occurs. Xinjiang's de - stocking and low imports support the price, but the textile off - season, few new orders, and reduced spinning - mill开机率 limit the upside. Technically, it remains strong, and a light - long - position strategy on dips is advised with support at 13695 and resistance at 13920 [7][9]. Sugar - The 2509 contract continues to rise in a volatile manner, boosted by the rebound of ICE raw sugar due to possible lower Brazilian production in June and the domestic consumption peak season. With low inventory and slow imports, the price is supported. Technically, it is strong, and a long - position strategy on dips is continued with support at 5780 [10]. Hog - The 2509 contract drops significantly from a high level. High inventory and reduced demand due to rising temperatures, increased substitute consumption, and school holidays pressure the price. Technically, it turns weak, and long - positions should be closed with support at 13750 and resistance at 13970 [12]. Egg - The 2508 contract opens low and closes high, showing a volatile rebound. Market speculation on lower summer egg - laying rates may reduce supply pressure, but the high egg - laying hen inventory and cautious trading limit the upside. Technically, short - positions should be closed with support at 3500 and resistance at 3574 [14]. Corn - The 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly. Tight supply from low grassroots grain and wheat support are offset by import auction expectations and wheat substitution, resulting in a narrow - range market. A short - term trading strategy is recommended with support at 2370 and resistance at 2386 [17]. Red Date - The 2509 contract falls from a high level. High - temperature weather in Xinjiang may reduce production, but the traditional off - season and increasing inventory lead to a high - level adjustment. Technically, there is callback pressure, and long - positions should be reduced with support at 9500 and resistance at 9700 [18][20]. Apple - The 2510 contract shows a volatile negative trend. The expected production reduction did not materialize, but low inventory supports the price while substitute fruits impact consumption. A short - term trading strategy is recommended with support at 7646 and resistance at 7780 [21].

2025 年 7 月 1 日 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限 豆油：美豆旧作库存偏高，新作面积略减 | 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 | | --- | | lijunyu@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,330 | 涨跌幅 -0.55% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,316 | 涨跌幅 -0.17% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,984 | -0.22% | 7,974 | -0.13% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,415 | -0.54% | 9,446 | 0.33% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,987 | -0.62% | 3,981 | -0.13% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 52.75 | 0.27% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 563,974 ...

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.32% to 30.0214 points, with a cumulative decline of 2.26% in June, having reached 31.9429 points before the opening of the US stock market on June 20 [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.61% to $4.09 per bushel, with a cumulative decline of 3.37% in June [1] - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 0.60% to $5.3750 per bushel, with a cumulative decline of 2.31% in June [1] Group 2 - CBOT soybean futures increased by 0.27% to $10.2750 per bushel, with a cumulative increase of 0.15% in June; soybean meal futures rose by 0.35% but saw a cumulative decline of 6.28%, while soybean oil futures increased by 0.27% with a cumulative rise of 10.40% [1] - In June, ICE raw sugar futures fell by 11.99%, and ICE white sugar futures decreased by 1.42% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures declined by 10.70%, while coffee "C" futures dropped by 12.24%, and Robusta coffee futures fell by 17.82% [1] Group 3 - New York cocoa futures decreased by 2.30% to $8,977 per ton, while London cocoa futures fell by 5.69% [1] - ICE cotton futures saw a cumulative increase of 0.34% [1]

Core Viewpoint - CBOT soybean futures have turned lower due to the USDA data indicating an increase in U.S. inventories [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The USDA report shows a rise in U.S. soybean stocks, which has negatively affected market sentiment and led to a decline in futures prices [1]