市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约12900元/吨，较前一日变动+155元/吨，幅度+1.22%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆 到厂价13839元/吨，较前一日变动-7元/吨，现货基差CF09+939，较前一日变动-162；3128B棉全国均价14100元/吨， 较前一日变动-13元/吨，现货基差CF09+1200，较前一日变动-168。 近期市场资讯，4月越南棉纺织品产量为0.96亿平方米，同比增加16.58%(上年同期数据为0.82亿平方米)，环比增加 3.72%;服装产量5.06亿件，同比下降12.71%(上年同期数据为5.8亿件)，环比增加2.04%。2025年1-4月棉纺织品产量 3.64亿平方米，同比增加15.87%，服装产量19.03亿件，同比下降14.2%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡上行。宏观方面，外交部宣布将与美国进行会谈，叠加国内发布降准降息和其他一揽子金融政 策支持，短期提振市场信心。国际方面，4月USDA报告小幅上调本年度全球棉花期末库存，整体调整中性偏空。 不过市场对于24/25年度全球棉市供需宽松格局的交易已经较为充分，随着北半球陆续进入播种期，关注焦点已逐 渐 ...

油料日报 | 2025-05-08 销区消费需求较为清淡，大豆价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2505合约4236.00元/吨，较前日变化+27.00元/吨，幅度+0.64%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05-116，较前日变化-27，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周二，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘下跌，基准期约收低0.41%，因为中美贸易紧张局 势，芝加哥豆油价格下跌，美国春播工作进展顺利 。4月7日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮 装车报价2.06元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.04元/斤，较昨 日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷 河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白 中粒塔粮装车报价2.14元/斤，较昨日涨0.02元/斤；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价 2.15元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日国内大豆价格震荡。4月压榨厂、蛋白厂对国产豆需求 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is "cautiously bearish" [4][7] Core Viewpoints - In the soybean meal market, due to the large - scale arrival of new - season Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will be relatively abundant in the coming months. The tight supply situation of soybean meal is expected to ease, and the oil mill operating rate and inventory will increase. The support of import costs for soybean meal prices is expected to weaken. Attention should be paid to policy changes, domestic soybean arrivals, and the planting and weather conditions of new - season US soybeans [3] - In the corn market, the domestic supply is tight as the grassroots grain sources are exhausted and traders are reluctant to sell. The demand side shows that deep - processing enterprises have sufficient inventory, and feed enterprises sign long - term contracts and purchase on - demand. With the approaching of the new wheat harvest in May, the substitution pressure on corn will increase. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and the release policy of substitute grains [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2920 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.17%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2565 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.67%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3300 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2490 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] Recent Market News - As of May 4, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil's 2024/25 season was 97.7%, higher than 94.3% in the same period last year. The harvest in some states has ended, and the progress in Rio Grande do Sul was 92%. In Argentina, the soybean harvest was only 25%, 9 percentage points slower than last year [2] Market Analysis - With the arrival of new - season Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will be abundant, the tight situation of soybean meal will ease, and the oil mill operating rate and inventory will recover. The decline in soybean premiums will weaken the support of import costs for soybean meal prices. The current tariff policy has limited impact on soybean meal prices, but policy changes still need attention [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2507 contract was 2369 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.17%); the corn starch 2507 contract was 2745 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.15%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton [4] Recent Market News - As of May 4, the US corn planting progress was 40%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 41%, but higher than 35% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 39% [5] Market Analysis - Domestically, the supply is tight as grassroots grain sources are exhausted and traders are reluctant to sell. The demand side shows that deep - processing enterprises have sufficient inventory, and feed enterprises sign long - term contracts and purchase on - demand. With the approaching of the new wheat harvest in May, the substitution pressure on corn will increase. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and the release policy of substitute grains [6] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]

分析师Dorab Mistry：预计从6月到11月，马来西亚棕榈油期货的交易价格将为每吨3500林吉特。棕榈油 库存的积累始于生产的持续复苏。 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，五一假期节后开盘玉米期价表现弱于预期，主力 2507 合约小幅高开后期 | | | | 价下行，当日收带长下引线的小阴线，期价呈现偏弱表现。现货市场方面，五一 | | | | 期间玉米现货延续上行，现货市场存粮贸易商看涨热情持续。东北玉米价格偏强 | | | | 运行为主，北港玉米价格上涨对行情形成较为明显的带动，产区贸易商低价售粮 | | | | 意向一般。五一假期期间，华北地区玉米价格延续偏强运行的态势，价格重心继 | | | | 续上移。农户余粮见底，粮源集中到贸易商手中，经过价格持续上涨，市场看涨 | | | 玉米 | 预期增强。期现价格联动上涨，小麦和玉米价格联动上涨。截至 5 月 6 日，山东 | 震荡 | | | 寿光金玉米收购价格 2420 元/吨，较节前价格上涨 40 元/吨，山东大部分企业站 | | | | 上 2400 元/吨的价位。产区带动销区玉米报价上涨，近期产区玉米价格持续上涨， | | | | 销区港口贸易商报价提高，期货市场表现偏强， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The impact of the tariff event on the corn market is limited, and domestic corn prices are still dominated by domestic supply - demand logic. Currently in the window period between old and new supplies, the tight supply makes the futures price more likely to rise than fall, and there may be an upward expectation for corn prices in the medium - to - long term [5][36][37] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Corn Market Structure - In early May, the corn index price in April first fluctuated and then rose. After falling to 2,260 yuan/ton in early April, it fluctuated in the range until late April, then rebounded and tested the resistance level of 2,350 yuan/ton, and continued to test 2,400 yuan/ton after a successful breakthrough. The supply is gradually tightening due to factors such as the clearing of grassroots surplus grain, a sharp drop in imports in Q1, and the price increase of new wheat. The downstream demand has limited boosting effect. Although the tariff event may affect corn prices, corn prices are still dominated by domestic supply - demand logic [7] - The overall futures - spot structure shows that 05 is at a discount to 09, and 09 is at a premium to 01 [8] 3.2 Market行情 Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Global Corn 4 - month USDA Report Shows Tightening Supply - Demand**: The USDA's April report shows that in the 2024/25 season, the corn production outside the US has been adjusted upwards, with some increases offset by decreases. The global ending inventory is 287.7 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons. The overall data interpretation is neutral [10] - **Market Surplus Grain is Almost Exhausted, and Grain Sources are Gradually Transferred to Traders**: The 2024/25 corn production is still in the high - yield category. Different institutions have different judgments on the increase or decrease in production. Currently, the surplus grain in most producing areas has been exhausted, and most grain sources have been transferred to traders and processing enterprises. The selling progress of farmers may slow down, and the supply in the market has tightened. However, due to the price difference between North China and Northeast China, the market liquidity is good [12][13] - **Tariff Policy Tightens Imports and Boosts Confidence in the Domestic Corn Market**: Since April 10, a 84% tariff has been imposed on US goods, and the import tax rate of US corn is as high as 99%, which stimulates domestic grain procurement. Although the import cost of agricultural products will increase and the import volume from the US is expected to decline, China has diversified its grain import layout in recent years, so the impact of the tariff policy on corn is relatively limited [17] 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Slow Capacity Reduction of Pig Production, Limited Increment in Feed Consumption**: As of March 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.39 million. The pig market is under pressure from both cost and supply sides and will show low - profit characteristics throughout the year. Although the feed consumption of pigs is expected to increase year - on - year, it is mainly to digest the previous inventory. There is a large - scale rigid demand for feed, but it is difficult to have an increment [23] - **Deep - processing Enterprises are in Loss, and Demand Boost is Limited**: Due to weak macro - economic growth and general downstream demand, the deep - processing profit is poor. The Sino - US tariff confrontation will continue to put pressure on product sales. As of April 3, the starch enterprise operating rate was 61.13%, and the processing profit was - 260 yuan/ton. Enterprises' procurement is relatively cautious [34] 3.3 Market Outlook - The impact of the tariff event on the corn market is limited, and domestic corn prices are still dominated by domestic supply - demand logic. Currently in the window period between old and new supplies, the tight supply makes the futures price more likely to rise than fall, and there may be an upward expectation for corn prices in the medium - to - long term [5][36][37]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean/Meal**: There is a strong trend of inventory accumulation for soybeans and soybean meal in the next three months. The cost of soybean arrivals in China has a tendency to rise steadily, but trade - related factors may suppress the price of soy - related products [3]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats face significant downward pressure on prices in the short term, but may be supported in the medium term if the macro - economy stabilizes [9]. - **Sugar**: The supply shortage of raw sugar is alleviated, and the price of Zhengzhou sugar may weaken in the future [12]. - **Cotton**: The cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [15]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs dominates the price, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [17]. - **Pigs**: The short - term price of live pigs fluctuates little, and a short - selling strategy after short - term rebounds is recommended [20]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: Overnight US soybeans closed lower. The estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively. The soybean arrivals cost has a tendency to rise steadily, but trade - related factors may suppress prices [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Near - term soybean meal prices are expected to decline, and far - month contracts may fluctuate weakly compared to US soybeans. Pay attention to trading rhythms [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in April, and the production also increased. The domestic spot basis of oils and fats fluctuated [7][8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats face downward pressure in the short term. Pay attention to the supply - demand situation in the producing areas. They may be supported in the medium term if the macro - economy stabilizes [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated. The production of sugar in the central - southern region of Brazil increased in the first half of April [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of raw sugar may reach a new low in the second and third quarters. The price of Zhengzhou sugar may weaken in the future [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated weakly. The US cotton planting rate was 21% as of May 4, 2025 [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to Sino - US negotiations and domestic inventory changes [15]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The domestic egg price was half - stable and half - falling. It is expected to be stable or decline today [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of eggs dominates the price. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [17]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price was mainly stable. The supply of live pigs may increase, and the price is expected to be weak in the near future [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price of live pigs fluctuates little. A short - selling strategy after short - term rebounds is recommended [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the impact of China's tariff policies on Canadian rapeseed products. In the short - term, the price will return to range - bound trading [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills. - **Bearish factors**: An increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainties in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand balance**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. - **Price and trading volume**: The trading volume and average price data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from April 22 to May 6 are presented, as well as the price data of rapeseed meal futures and spot from April 22 to April 30. - **Warehouse receipts**: The statistics of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts from April 21 to May 6 show an overall upward trend. - **Import situation**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in April was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated upwards. - **Inventory and processing**: The rapeseed inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, and the rapeseed meal inventory dropped to a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills rebounded from a low level [14][15][16][24][25][26][28][30]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal closed up in a fluctuating manner, driven by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. The low - level operation of oil mills and low rapeseed meal inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is gradually recovering. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed has increased, the short - term inventory of oil mills is not under pressure, and the market has returned to a fluctuating pattern. China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes are short - term bullish for rapeseed meal, but the bullish effect may be limited as no additional tariffs are imposed on rapeseed imports. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2480, and the basis is - 68, indicating a discount to the futures price. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.45 million tons, up 49.48% week - on - week from 0.97 million tons last week and down 44.23% year - on - year from 2.6 million tons in the same period last year. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downwards. - **Main positions**: The main long positions decreased, but capital flowed in. - **Expectation**: In the short - term, rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes. Driven by soybean meal, the rapeseed meal price will return to range - bound trading [10].

2025年05月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期偏弱，下方有支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：震荡寻底，品种间偏强 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收跌，连粕或偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面偏强 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花：仍缺乏上涨驱动 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：关注二育节奏 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 7 日 | 豆油：震荡寻底，品种间偏强 | | --- | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 7,974 | 涨跌幅 -2.14% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 7,912 | 涨跌幅 -0.78% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 菜油主力 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 7, ...

Report Overview - Report Date: May 6, 2025 - Report Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm Oil: Short - term weakness with support at the bottom [2][4] - Soybean Oil: Risk of unilateral correction, relatively strong among varieties [2][4] - Soybean Meal: U.S. soybeans fluctuated during the holiday, Dalian soybean meal may run weakly [2][17] - Soybean: Range - bound [2][18] - Corn: Range - bound with an upward bias [2][20] - Sugar: Range consolidation [2][25] - Cotton: Still lacks upward drivers [2][29] - Eggs: Range adjustment [2][34] - Hogs: Trading volume decreased during the holiday, focus on the post - holiday slaughter rhythm [2][36] - Peanuts: Focus on oil mill purchases [2][40] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil main contract closed at 8,148 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.34% increase. Spot price in Guangdong was 8,750 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton. MPOB monthly report forecast shows that Malaysia's April 2025 palm oil inventory is expected to be 1.79 million tons, up 14.8% month - on - month; production is expected to be 1.62 million tons, up 16.9%; exports are expected to be 1.1 million tons, up 9.7% [5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating short - term weakness [16]. Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Soybean oil main contract closed at 7,832 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.67% increase. Spot price in Guangdong was 8,200 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, suggesting a risk of unilateral correction [16]. Soybean Meal - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2509 contract closed at 2,920 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton (- 1.91%). CBOT soybean 07 contract closed at 1046 cents/bu, down 12.25 cents/bu (- 1.16%) [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating potential weak operation [19]. Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2507 contract closed at 4,188 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+ 0.19%) [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing a neutral trend [19]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2507 contract closed at 2,377 yuan/ton, up 0.72%. C2509 contract closed at 2,392 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. As of April 27, the U.S. corn sowing progress reached 24%, higher than the five - year average of 22% [21][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a range - bound with an upward bias [23]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: Raw sugar price was 17.43 cents/lb, up 0.16 cents/lb. Mainstream spot price was 6,190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. CAOC expects China's 24/25 sugar production to be 11 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons [25][26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, suggesting range consolidation [27]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2509 contract closed at 12,750 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. ICE cotton 07 contract closed at 68.53 cents/lb, up 0.25%. Domestic cotton spot basis was stable, while the cotton yarn market had weak trading [29][30]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a lack of upward drivers [31]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2505 contract closed at 3,073 yuan/500 kg, down 1.88%. Egg 2509 contract closed at 3,791 yuan/500 kg, down 0.47% [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing range adjustment [34]. Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: Henan spot price was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. Sichuan spot price was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The procurement progress of second - fattening in April was more than half, and the high - price chasing sentiment cooled down. The short - term support level of LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [37][39]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, suggesting focusing on the post - holiday slaughter rhythm [38]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: Liaoning 308 common peanuts were priced at 8,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. PK505 contract closed at 7,776 yuan/ton, down 2.29%. Attention should be paid to oil mill purchases [40]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating to focus on oil mill purchases [42].