在数据的迷雾中寻找市场真相，这似乎是每一位投资者必修的课题。近期，美国经济数据的频繁修正，如同一场突如其来的风暴，让人不禁回想起一位老投 资导师的箴言："官方数据的剧烈波动，往往是市场深层变革的信号。"7月份的非农就业数据，一次性下调了25.6万人，这样的调整幅度实属罕见，它像一 把锐利的刀，剥开了经济华丽的外衣，露出了隐藏的伤痕。 然而，当目光转向美股市场，却发现交易软件的屏幕上，市场反应异常平静。这一幕，让人深思：真正左右市场的，往往不是新闻的字面意义，而是那些隐 藏在数据背后的资金暗流。正如上海俗语所言："看事物要看本质，看市场要看底蕴。" 在华尔街，有一句流传甚广的老话："Buy the rumor, sell the news."（买在谣言起，卖在新闻时）这句话生动描绘了资本市场的运作逻辑。回想起2025年那次 白酒板块的暴跌，限酒令的消息一出，板块指数应声而落，随后的二十个交易日里，平均跌幅超过6%。表面上看，这是政策黑天鹅的突然袭击，但深入分 析机构资金的行为数据，却发现大资金早已在利空发布前悄然撤退。这就像黄浦江下的暗流，表面上风平浪静，实则暗潮汹涌。 市场的吊诡之处在于，同样的消息在不同的资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [7] Core Insights - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with increased catalysts for investment and improved cost-effectiveness in allocations. Factors include ongoing policy adjustments, low fund allocations in Q2 2025, and rising dividend yields from liquor companies [5][6] - The overall beverage market is experiencing a shift towards new consumption patterns, particularly in instant retail and tea beverage sectors, driven by efficiency and scale [6][7] - The report highlights a focus on key companies within the liquor sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as flexible stocks like JiuGui Jiu and SheDe JiuYe [5][7] Summary by Sections Industry News - The liquor manufacturing industry's profit decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year [16] - The production of Renhuai liquor is expected to exceed 310,000 tons in 2024 [16] - Regulatory measures in Guiyang have been introduced to liquor companies [16] Company News - Guizhou Moutai has undergone personnel adjustments in its supervisory board [16] - SheDe JiuYe's board member resigned from his position [16] Key Company Feedback - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio in the liquor sector, with a focus on companies that are actively engaging in market strategies and product differentiation [5][6] Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown varied performance over the past month, with a slight increase of 0.2% [2] - The liquor sector is currently undergoing a destocking cycle, facing multiple pressures from pricing, demand, and policy [5] Key Data Trends - In 2024, the liquor industry is projected to generate revenue of 796.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [35] - The cumulative production of liquor in 2024 is expected to be 4.145 million tons, down 7.72% year-on-year [35]

Industry Background - The liquor industry is facing dual pressures from economic and policy factors, leading to an accelerated bottoming out of the sector [2] - Revenue growth for the sector is expected to significantly decline to around 1% starting from the second half of 2024, with most companies failing to meet their 2024 operational targets, except for leading firms like Kweichow Moutai and Shui Jing Fang [2] Supply Side - Major liquor companies such as Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Yanghe have initiated inventory control policies, marking the beginning of a "control inventory wave" [3] - This proactive supply-side adjustment is anticipated to alleviate channel inventory pressure and help rebalance supply and demand, potentially stabilizing prices in the short term [3] Demand Side - Companies are innovating to tap into new demand and optimize demand structure by launching products that align with changing consumer preferences [4] - There is a noticeable shift from "cost-performance ratio" to "quality-price ratio" in consumer preferences, prompting leading brands to introduce new products that emphasize quality [4] - The trend towards lower alcohol content products is gaining traction, especially among younger consumers, with significant interest in low-alcohol offerings [4] - Companies are also focusing on mid-range products to cater to evolving consumer needs and market dynamics [4] Channel Strategy - Liquor companies are building platforms to strengthen partnerships with distributors and embrace new channels to balance online and offline sales [5] - The establishment of cooperative platforms among manufacturers is aimed at resolving conflicts and creating a healthier ecosystem [5] - Companies are increasingly focusing on online channel management, with initiatives to recruit operators for online platforms and activate new retail channels [5] Marketing Strategy - Companies are adjusting their marketing strategies by reducing the reliance on "red envelope" promotions and focusing on cultivating new consumption scenarios and demographics [6] - There is a shift towards targeted marketing efforts to optimize customer structures and create new consumption experiences [6] - The current low valuation, low expectations, and low holdings in the sector make strong brand leaders attractive for dividend returns [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 over the next six months [59]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight increase of 0.89% in July 2025, with notable performances from liquor and cooked food, while overall trading volume remained low at 32.698 billion shares [1][7]. - From January to July 2025, the food and beverage sector recorded a cumulative decline of 3.50%, underperforming the market index, with the sector ranking second to last among 31 primary industries [5][12]. - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a ten-year low, with a current valuation of 13.93 times earnings, while liquor is even lower at 11.98 times [5][14]. - In July 2025, 52.34% of individual stocks in the sector saw price increases, indicating a significant improvement in stock performance compared to the previous month [21][24]. - Investment opportunities are recommended in the liquor, soft drink, health products, baking, and snack sectors for August 2025, with a specific stock portfolio suggested [54][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase of 0.89% in July 2025, with significant gains in cooked food, health products, liquor, and meat products, while other sub-sectors declined [1][7]. - The total trading volume for the sector in July was 32.698 billion shares, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.509 billion shares but a decrease of 19.525 billion shares from the peak in April [1][7]. 2. Valuation - As of July 31, 2025, the food and beverage sector's valuation stands at 13.93 times earnings, which is low compared to historical data, with liquor at 11.98 times [5][14]. 3. Individual Stock Performance - In July 2025, 52.34% of stocks in the food and beverage sector increased in value, with health products and dairy products showing strong performance [21][24]. - Specific stocks such as liquor brands and baked goods showed signs of recovery, with notable increases in their stock prices [21][24]. 4. Investment Trends - The food and beverage manufacturing sector has seen a continuous increase in fixed asset investment, with a year-on-year growth of 22.9% in 2024 and 16.0% in 2025 [28]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in emerging markets within the food and beverage sector, such as pre-prepared meals and baked goods, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards higher-quality and more diverse food options [53][54].

Group 1: Company Performance and Challenges - The company's performance in the first half of the year has been under pressure due to a weakened demand in the white liquor market and intensified competition, leading to a pronounced Matthew effect [2] - The company is undergoing a transformation period, focusing on C-end sales to drive growth, which requires time to yield results [2] - The company has implemented a "雷扫行动" (雷扫行动) to enhance market development and improve service and management levels [2] Group 2: Product Strategy - The company has initiated a "二低一小" (two low and one small) product strategy, which includes low-end liquor, low-alcohol liquor, and small liquor products [2][3] - The low-end liquor strategy aims to leverage increased production capacity to support mid-to-low-end product offerings, emphasizing cost-effectiveness [3] - The low-alcohol liquor is designed to appeal to younger consumers, featuring low alcohol content without compromising flavor [3] Group 3: Collaborations and Market Positioning - The collaboration with 胖东来 (Pang Donglai) on the 酒鬼·自由爱 (Jiu Gui: Free Love) product is based on shared values and cultural alignment [3] - The company has established a cooperative plan with 胖东来, with ongoing progress in various aspects of the partnership [3] Group 4: Pricing and Profitability - The company is focusing on stabilizing the pricing strategy for its internal reference series due to a decline in high-end liquor demand, prioritizing price stability over volume growth [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be low due to significant marketing expenditures aimed at boosting terminal sales and reducing inventory [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The implementation of the national childcare subsidy is expected to stimulate overall consumption in the long term, particularly benefiting the infant food sector [8]. - Recent policy signals from the Political Bureau meeting indicate a commitment to proactive fiscal and monetary policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [5]. - The food and beverage sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a decline of 1.45% over the past two weeks, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72% [3][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past year, the food and beverage sector has shown a 5.7% increase, but it has lagged behind the Shanghai Composite Index in the short term [3][17]. - The health products segment experienced the smallest decline of 0.01%, while processed foods and meat products fell by 0.16% and 0.30%, respectively [17]. Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the liquor segment include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and others [28]. - In the consumer goods segment, recommended stocks include BaiRun Co., WeiLong, Salted Fish, Nongfu Spring, and others [28]. Market Trends - The report highlights a significant drop in the number of banquet reservations for graduation ceremonies, indicating a shift in consumer behavior due to recent restrictions [5]. - New product launches by companies like Qiaqia are accelerating, with a focus on innovative and differentiated products to capture market share [9]. Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of 10.737 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.4%, with a net profit of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.2% [10]. - The report notes that the beverage market is facing pressure from price wars, particularly in the bottled water segment, impacting profitability [11]. Valuation Metrics - As of August 1, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for the food and beverage sector stands at 20.23x, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical averages [23].

Group 1 - The company, Kweichow Moutai, announced that as of the end of July 2025, it has repurchased approximately 3.45 million shares, accounting for 0.2748% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of about 5.301 billion yuan [1][1][1] - The highest purchase price for the repurchased shares was 1,639.99 yuan per share, while the lowest was 1,408.29 yuan per share [1][1][1] - For the fiscal year 2024, the company's revenue composition indicates that 97.97% comes from liquor sales, while other businesses contribute 2.03% [1][1][1] Group 2 - As of the report, Kweichow Moutai's market capitalization stands at 1,782.5 billion yuan [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese consumer market is undergoing profound changes, characterized by a juxtaposition of thriving new consumption trends and traditional giants facing price pressures, reflecting a restructured supply-demand relationship and evolving consumer needs [1][3][5]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - New consumption is not a fleeting "internet celebrity" phenomenon but a deepening of consumption upgrades and a revolution in business philosophy [1][8]. - The rise of new consumption is supported by government policies encouraging the development of new consumption sectors, such as original IP brands and domestic products [7]. - New consumption is driven by technological and innovative efficiency revolutions, product and scenario upgrades, while maintaining a focus on quality and emotional connections with brands [14][15]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Changes - Consumers are increasingly valuing emotional satisfaction alongside practical needs, with a notable shift towards experiences that enhance their quality of life [17][19]. - The demand for high-quality, innovative products that address life pain points is growing, while consumers are also sensitive to pricing and quality [19][21]. - The Z generation and Alpha generation, comprising approximately 35% of the total population in 2024, are expected to significantly influence consumption patterns with their unique preferences [23]. Group 3: Market Segmentation - There is a clear segmentation in consumer confidence and spending, with diverse groups presenting structural opportunities for brands [21]. - The aging population is creating new market demands, particularly in areas like smart home innovations and travel experiences for the elderly [23]. - Young urban professionals are exhibiting a trend towards "consumption grading," balancing essential spending with a desire for high-quality experiences [24].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector experienced a slight pullback, with stable prices for Feitian liquor. The white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18.06X, which is 5.23% below the reasonable low level over the past decade. Strong alpha companies such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai are recommended, along with beta companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Water Well [2][12] - The beer sector saw a decline, with Budweiser Asia reporting a 3.9% decrease in revenue and a 6.2% drop in sales in Q2 2025. However, there is optimism for recovery in beer sales due to upcoming consumption promotion policies and adjustments to alcohol bans [3][13] - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a pullback, with a focus on new products and performance data catalysts. Companies that can enhance efficiency and market share are highlighted as strong investment opportunities [4][20] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector declined by 2.17%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94% and the CSI 300 Index dropped by 1.75%. Specific declines included snacks (-3.03%) and soft drinks (-4.28%) [1][21] Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor sector saw a 2.40% decline, with notable drops in companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Shede Liquor. Despite this, the mid-term value of the sector remains promising [2][12] - The yellow wine sector is also under observation, with companies like Gu Yue Long Shan actively repurchasing shares [12] Beer and Beverage Sector Insights - The beer sector's decline was led by companies like Qingdao Beer and Budweiser Asia. The latter's performance was impacted by weak demand in China and Korea [3][13] - The soft drink sector also faced challenges, with companies like Nongfu Spring and Master Kong showing declines [15] Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The consumer goods sector is focusing on new product launches and performance data. Companies like Qiaqia Food and Jinzai are expanding their product lines [4][20] - The dairy sector remains stable, with average milk prices at 3.03 RMB/kg, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.90% [18] Investment Recommendations - Strong alpha liquor companies such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai are recommended, along with consumer goods companies that focus on cost reduction and market share growth [5][20]

Investment Focus - The report highlights a focus on structural opportunities driven by policy catalysis, particularly in essential consumer sectors such as dairy products and liquor, while cautioning against the risks in the soft drink sector [7]. Demand Analysis - In July, among the eight tracked essential consumer sectors, six maintained positive growth, while two experienced negative growth. The sectors with single-digit growth included dining (+4.4%), soft drinks (+2.7%), frozen foods (+1.7%), condiments (+1.1%), dairy products (+1.1%), and beer (+0.6%). The declining sectors were high-end and above liquor (-4.0%) and mass-market liquor (-3.9%) [3][9]. - The report notes that five sectors saw a deterioration in growth rates compared to the previous month, while three improved. The new alcohol ban and adverse weather conditions were identified as significant negative factors affecting demand [3][9]. Price Trends - In July, most liquor wholesale prices stabilized after a period of decline. Specific prices included Feitian at 1915/1880/655 yuan for different packaging, with year-on-year declines of 665/500/155 yuan. The price of Wuliangye was 930 yuan, showing a slight increase of 10 yuan from the previous month [3][22][24]. - The report indicates that the prices of liquid milk and beer saw a reduction in discount rates, while soft drink discounts increased, with stable prices for infant formula, convenience foods, and condiments [4][19]. Cost Analysis - The report states that the spot cost index for various sectors, including dairy, soft drinks, frozen foods, and beer, generally decreased in July, while futures cost indices showed mixed results. For instance, the spot cost index for dairy products fell by 2.92% [4]. Fund Flow - As of the end of July, net inflows into Hong Kong Stock Connect amounted to 124.1 billion yuan, with the essential consumer sector's market capitalization share rising to 5.05%. The food additives sector saw a decrease in share, while the dairy sector experienced an increase [5]. Valuation Insights - By the end of July, the historical PE ratio for the food and beverage sector was at 16% (20.2x), remaining stable from the previous month. The report notes that the median valuation for leading A-share companies was 20x, a decrease of 1x from the previous month [6]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, particularly dairy and liquor, while being cautious about the soft drink sector's marginal deterioration. Specific companies to watch include China Feihe, Yili, Mengniu, Master Kong, Uni-President, Yanghe, WH Group, and China Foods [7].