Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term prices of beans and related oil products are showing a weakening trend, with an overall view of "oscillating weakly" for most products in the short - term and mid - term, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: As the expected Sino - US trade tensions ease, the risk premium of soybean futures prices faces the risk of retracement. Spot prices in North China and Northeast China have dropped significantly, and the futures market is adjusting the supply shortage expectation. The market expects supply to recover after May Day, and the pre - purchase by oil mills may gradually resolve the supply shortage. Downstream备货 mentality has changed, and subsequent stocking has become more cautious after a short - term concentrated stocking. Short - term soybean futures prices have retraced part of the risk premium and are obviously weak [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: With the significant decline in the price of raw soybeans, soybean oil futures prices have weakened. Palm oil lacks relevant themes and is a follower in the oil and fat sector. The supply - demand increase pattern in Southeast Asia cannot drive prices, and the increase in domestic ship purchases will replenish domestic inventories. Overall, palm oil is oscillating weakly in the short - term [7]. Other Related Varieties - **Soybean Oil (2509)**: The influencing factors include US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel stocking demand [6]. - **Palm (2509)**: Influenced by Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide specific industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The driving force for an uptrend is questionable, and it is currently regarded as range - bound [2][4]. - Soybean oil: The sentiment in the spot market has improved, but there may be a correction at high levels [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Concerns in the spot market have eased, leading to a decline in Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal futures [2][14]. - Soybean: Affected by the fluctuations in the soybean meal spot market, it followed the downward trend [2][14]. - Corn: The trend is slightly bullish with oscillations [2][17]. - Sugar: It is in a range - bound consolidation [2][22]. - Cotton: Demand will continue to limit the rebound momentum of Zhengzhou cotton futures [2][26]. - Eggs: The spot market is weakly oscillating [2][31]. - Hogs: A phase of inventory reduction may commence [2][33]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchases by oil mills [2][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,376 yuan/ton with a 1.77% increase, and the night - session was 8,310 yuan/ton with a 0.79% decrease. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,934 yuan/ton with a 1.12% increase, and the night - session was 7,868 yuan/ton with a 0.83% decrease [5]. - Spot: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,230 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,420 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan [5]. - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 854 yuan/ton, and that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 486 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Malaysian palm oil exports from April 1 - 25 increased by 14.75% (AmSpec), 13.8% (ITS), and 3.6% (SGS) compared to the same period last month [6][8][9]. - The Indian vegetable oil industry urged the government to adjust import tariffs to support domestic refining capacity [9]. - According to the CFTC report, as of April 22, long positions in CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and ICE rapeseed increased, while short positions in CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and ICE rapeseed also changed [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of - 1 [13]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: DCE soybean 2507 closed at 4,237 yuan/ton during the day - session with a 1.42% decrease, and DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3,031 yuan/ton with a 0.92% decrease [14]. - Spot: The price of 43% soybean meal in Shandong was 3,750 - 3,850 yuan/ton, down 50 or 20 yuan [14]. - **Macro and Industry News** - On April 25, CBOT soybean futures mostly fell as China denied tariff negotiations [14][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of - 1 [16]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: C2505 closed at 2,292 yuan/ton during the day - session with a 0.39% increase, and C2507 closed at 2,336 yuan/ton with a 0.34% increase [18]. - Spot: The price of Jinzhou's flat - price corn was 2,240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of Guangdong Shekou's corn was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [18]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Corn prices in northern ports and various regions showed an upward trend [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 1 [20]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: The main futures price was 5,974 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [22]. - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 6,190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [22]. - **Macro and Industry News** - High - frequency information indicated drought in Guangxi, low inventories in Brazil, lower - than - expected production in India, and low precipitation in Brazil's Q1 [22]. - CAOC estimated that China's sugar production in the 24/25 season would be 1,100 million tons, consumption 1,580 million tons, and imports 500 million tons [23]. - ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 488 million tons in the 24/25 season [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [24]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: CF2509 closed at 12,990 yuan/ton during the day - session with no change, and CY2507 closed at 18,935 yuan/ton with a 0.21% decrease [26]. - Spot: The price of 3128B cotton index was 14,224 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [26]. - **Macro and Industry News** - The domestic cotton spot market was quiet, and the cotton textile industry faced challenges such as insufficient orders and reduced procurement [27]. - ICE cotton closed at 68.7 cents/pound on Friday, affected by poor export data and favorable weather [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [30]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Egg 2505 closed at 3,164 yuan/500 kg with a 1.54% increase, and Egg 2509 closed at 3,818 yuan/500 kg with a 0.03% decrease [31]. - Spot: The price of eggs in Liaoning was 3.35 yuan/jin, unchanged [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [31]. Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Henan's spot price was 14,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of hog 2505 was 14,115 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [35]. - Spot: The prices of hogs in Sichuan and Guangdong also decreased [35]. - **Market Logic** - After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, second - fattening started, but recently, the sentiment has cooled, and a phase of inventory reduction may begin. The support level for the LH2505 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of - 1 [36]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: PK505 closed at 8,046 yuan/ton with a 1.52% decrease, and PK510 closed at 8,270 yuan/ton with a 0.78% increase [38]. - Spot: The prices of peanuts in various regions were relatively stable [38][39]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, there have been notable developments in the domestic and international protein meal and oil futures markets, with key events in soybean - rapeseed meal and oil, and palm oil series [1]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal and Oil - As of the week ending April 20, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 31.76% to 140,500 tons compared to the previous week [2]. - Paraná state in Brazil is expected to produce 21.11 million tons of soybeans, higher than last month's estimate. As of April 24, 80% of the 2024/25 soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul have been harvested [2]. - As of the week ending April 17, the net weekly export sales of 2024/25 US soybeans shrank to 277,000 tons, with cumulative sales of 47.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.57 million tons [2]. - As of the week ending April 17, the net weekly export sales of 2024/25 US soybean meal slightly increased to 170,900 tons, and the net weekly export of 2024/25 US soybean oil increased by 12,400 tons [2]. - A case being heard by Brazil's Supreme Court may provide an opportunity to improve the "soybean ban" implemented in 2008, which will impact the global soybean supply chain [3]. 3.2 Palm Oil Series - In March, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.05 million tons, a 3.4% decrease from the previous month. Exports to China dropped to 230,035 tons, a 19.1% decrease from February. India's palm oil imports in Q1 2025 decreased by nearly 40% to 1.07 million tons compared to the same period last year [4]. 3.3 Margin Adjustment during May Day Holiday - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the margin and price limit for multiple futures varieties during the May Day holiday, and then return to the original standards after the holiday [5]. 3.4 Other Data Charts - There are data charts related to spreads between different meal varieties, spreads across different periods of the same meal variety, price - to - price ratios of the same meal and oil varieties, and spreads between different oil varieties [6][7][9][12]

芝商所小麦期货跌至两周低点 降雨料提振作物前景 智通财经4月24日电，由于气象预报显示未来天气将更潮湿，有助于北半球部分地区的作物生长，芝加 哥小麦期货周四下跌，触及两周低点。根据天气预报机构Vaisala的预测，美国中部和南部地区将迎来降 雨，有望改善冬小麦的土壤墒情。在欧洲，未来五天也预计会有降水，涵盖主要小麦生产国法国和德 国，为干旱农田带来一定缓解。芝加哥小麦期货合约周四一度下跌0.7%，为连续第四个交易日下跌。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For corn, the Sino-US tariff dispute is favorable to domestic corn prices; in the Northeast, the remaining grain is running out, and traders are reluctant to sell; in the North China and Huanghuai regions, the purchase of high - priced grain is limited, and the new - season planting area is expected to be stable but the sowing progress may be delayed due to weather; wheat drought indirectly boosts corn prices; short - term participation is recommended for the corn futures [2]. - For corn starch, the supply - demand situation is weak, with continuous losses in industry profits, a decline in the开机率, but limited downstream demand and high inventory; short - term participation is recommended for the corn starch futures [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2338 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan), the 9 - 1 monthly spread is 72 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), the trading volume of the active contract is 1359385 hands (up 30902 hands), the net long position of the top 20 is - 154292 hands (up 1674 hands), and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 60846 hands (up 17951 hands) [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2701 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), the 7 - 9 monthly spread is - 64 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), the trading volume of the active contract is 225680 hands (up 5424 hands), the net long position of the top 20 is - 15207 hands (up 3288 hands), and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 5950 hands (unchanged) [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 479.5 cents/bushel (down 3.5 cents), the total position is 1723995 contracts (down 86141 contracts), and the non - commercial net long position is 234182 contracts (up 61300 contracts) [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2279.61 yuan/ton (up 2.16 yuan), the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2230 yuan/ton (unchanged), the CIF price of imported corn is 2145.9 yuan/ton (down 6.84 yuan), and the international freight of imported corn is 42 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2590 yuan/ton, 2760 yuan/ton, and 2740 yuan/ton respectively (all unchanged); the basis of the main contract is - 111 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2436.44 yuan/ton (up 2.88 yuan), the price difference between cassava starch and corn starch is 269 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan), and the price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 74 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 377.63 million tons, 126 million tons, 50 million tons, 294.92 million tons, and 26.8 million tons respectively (all unchanged); the predicted sowing areas are 33.55 million hectares, 22.3 million hectares, 6.4 million hectares, 44.74 million hectares, and 0.3 million hectares respectively (all unchanged) [2]. Industrial Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 164.5 million tons (up 11.4 million tons), and at northern ports is 530 million tons (down 25 million tons) [2]. - Corn starch inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 138.7 million tons (up 0.4 million tons) [2]. - Trade volume: The monthly import volume of corn is 8 million tons (unchanged), and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 20350 tons (down 930 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production: The monthly output is 2777.2 million tons (down 66.4 million tons), and the inventory days of sample feed corn is 35.54 days (up 0.35 days) [2]. - Corn consumption: The weekly consumption in deep - processing is 126.43 million tons (down 5.38 million tons) [2]. - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The weekly开机率 of alcohol enterprises is 53.85% (down 5.32%), and that of starch enterprises is 58.37% (up 4.43%) [2]. Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.52% (up 0.06%), the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.64% (up 0.05%), the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 9.72% (down 0.45%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.72% (down 0.46%) [2]. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday, and analysts expect the net export sales volume of US corn from April 11 - 17, 2025, to be between 800,000 and 1.4 million tons [2]. Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the weekly corn consumption data and the开机率 and inventory data of starch enterprises from Thursday to Friday [3].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年4月24日 | | | 王泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 票 | | | | | | | 4月23日 | 4月22日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 | 8300 | 8270 | 30 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 | 7890 | 7852 | 38 | 0.48% | | 墓差 Y2509 | 410 | 418 | -8 | -1.91% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏4月 | 05 + 390 | 05+380 | 10 | - | | 仓单 | 3735 | 3735 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | 4月23日 | 4月22日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 | 9030 | 9000 | 30 | 0.33% | | 期价 P2509 | 8570 | 8568 | 2 | 0.02% | | 某差 P2509 | 460 | 432 | 28 | ...

农产品日报 | 2025-04-24 贸易战释放缓和信号，郑棉期价震荡反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约12990元/吨，较前一日变动+195元/吨，幅度+1.52%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆 到厂价13988元/吨，较前一日变动-94元/吨，现货基差CF09+998，较前一日变动-289；3128B棉全国均价14151元/ 吨，较前一日变动-67元/吨，现货基差CF09+1161，较前一日变动-262。 近期市场资讯，据CAI公布的数据统计显示，截至2025年4月20日当周，印度棉花周度上市量4.2万吨，同比下滑87%； 印度2024/25年度的棉花累计上市量441.96万吨，同比下滑5%。CAI累计上市量达24/25年度预测平衡表产量（495 万吨）的89%，同比快5%。印度棉上市环比大幅回落，上市进度同比领先幅度收窄。其中，马哈拉斯特邦、古吉 拉特邦、安德拉邦以及印度北部省份上市量明显回落。 市场分析 中性。盘面风险阶段性出清，但宏观不确定性仍强，短期棉价预计震荡运行。 风险 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 棉花观点 昨日郑棉受特朗普释放缓和信号影响小幅反弹。宏观方面， ...

期货热点追踪 贸易局势缓和推涨美豆期货！农户销售有限，下游大豆加工商供应不足。点击阅读。 相关链接 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Low long [1] - Pig: Range trading [2] - Egg: High short [2] Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, the domestic spot price fluctuates. In the medium - term, the supply pattern may tighten, but policy grain and wheat substitution may limit price increase. In the long - term, it follows the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost [1]. - Pig: In the short - term, the supply is balanced, and the price fluctuates around 15 yuan/kg. In the medium - term, the supply pressure will be realized in the next 6 months. In the long - term, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized this year [2]. - Egg: This week, the social inventory is rising, and the spot price is weakening in the short - term. The supply of laying hens is expected to increase from March to June, and the spot price may face pressure during the rainy season [2][3]. Summary by Category Corn Market Review - Yesterday, the corn futures fluctuated. The 2507 contract closed with a daily increase of 0.35%, at 2324 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - Yesterday, the prices of north - south ports and deep - processing enterprises rose slightly. On April 23, the corn trading of CCDC had different transaction rates and prices [1]. Market Logic - Short - term: The domestic grass - roots grain sales are ending, port inventory is decreasing, and the spot price fluctuates. Medium - term: Import and substitution may decrease, but policy grain and wheat substitution may limit price increase. Long - term: It follows the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost [1]. Trading Strategy - Long - term: Range operation; Medium - term: Low long; Short - term: Rebound. If the 2507 contract stands above MA60, the expected price is 2340 - 2350. The support of the 2509 contract moves up to 2320 - 2330, and pay attention to whether 2350 can be broken [1]. Pig Market Review - Yesterday, the pig futures fluctuated weakly. The LH2507 contract had a daily decline of 0.59%, at 13590 yuan/ton; the LH2509 contract had a daily decline of 0.93%, at 14365 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - On April 23, the national average pig price was 15.05 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day. There are also data on the inventory of medium - large pigs, newborn piglets, and fertile sows [2]. Market Logic - Short - term: The supply is balanced, and the price fluctuates between 14 - 15 yuan/kg. As the weather gets warmer, the supply may exceed demand. Medium - term: The supply pressure will be realized in the next 6 months. Long - term: The pig production capacity will continue to be realized this year [2]. Trading Strategy - The disk has already priced in the decline. After the Spring Festival, it has been trading the repair logic. The medium - term is in range operation, and the short - term is fluctuating weakly. The support of the 2507 contract is 13300 - 13400, and the pressure is 13700. The support of the 2509 contract is 14100 - 14200, and the pressure is 14650 - 14700 [2]. Egg Market Review - Yesterday, the egg futures showed a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The JD2506 contract had a daily decline of 0.13%, at 3026 yuan/500kg; the JD2507 contract had a daily decline of 0.16%, at 3118 yuan/500kg; the JD2509 contract had a daily increase of 0.31%, at 3825 yuan/500kg [2]. Important Information - On the 23rd, the national egg price was weakly stable. The inventory of production and circulation links increased. The price of old hens was mostly stable. There are also data on egg size ratio, laying hen inventory, chicken苗 sales, and poultry production [2][3]. Market Logic - This week, the social inventory is rising, and the spot price is weakening in the short - term. The supply of laying hens is expected to increase from March to June, and the spot price may face pressure during the rainy season [2][3]. Trading Strategy - Previously, it was suggested to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the spot price reached the peak. If the 2507 contract effectively breaks below the MA20 moving average and the 2509 contract effectively breaks below 3800, it may open further downward space; otherwise, maintain the range - trading idea [3].

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 23 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者：刘幸华 从业资格号：F03088692 交易咨询资格证号: Z0016646 油脂上涨、生猪下挫 一、农产品板块综述 油脂板块全线上涨,豆油仍受到国内进口大豆通关缓慢的影响, 油厂缺豆停机,开机率偏低致使产出减少,豆油库存下降,加之下游 备货等需求提振豆油期价上涨,带动其他油脂走高。生猪下挫,养殖 端主流规模企业落袋为安,出栏量增加,而二育补栏成本大幅增加, 补栏数量显著减少,生猪供应增加给猪价带来下跌压力。玉米偏强波 动,产区农户余粮见底,贸易商惜售,下游深加工及饲料需求稳中有 增,支撑玉米期价。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 豆油:继续领涨 焦点关注:豆油主力 2509 合约继续上涨,供应偏低支撑期价走 间: 1.国内进口大豆通关缓慢,油厂开机阶段性偏低,豆油库存大幅 去化,库存为近年同期最低水平,豆油 ...