Group 1 - The total margin balance of A-shares reached 27,426.43 billion yuan on January 28, an increase of 192.52 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.63% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - The trading volume of margin financing on the same day was 2,963.24 billion yuan, which is an increase of 168.28 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 9.90% of the total A-share trading volume [1] Group 2 - Among the 31 primary industries in Shenwan, 27 industries experienced net financing inflows, with the non-ferrous metals industry leading with a net inflow of 5.968 billion yuan [3] - Other industries with significant net financing inflows include telecommunications, computers, construction decoration, non-bank financials, and pharmaceuticals [3] Group 3 - A total of 64 stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with Zijin Mining leading at 1.471 billion yuan [3] - Other notable stocks with high net financing inflows include Tianfu Communication, China Ping An, Wangsu Science and Technology, Hengyun Chang, Changjiang Electric Power, Kweichow Moutai, Jiangxi Copper, Cambricon, and Northern Rare Earth [3] Group 4 - The top stocks by net financing inflow on January 28 are as follows: 1. Zijin Mining: 1,470.57 million yuan 2. Tianfu Communication: 825.18 million yuan 3. China Ping An: 792.95 million yuan 4. Wangsu Science and Technology: 747.54 million yuan 5. Hengyun Chang: 656.63 million yuan 6. Changjiang Electric Power: 429.54 million yuan 7. Kweichow Moutai: 397.22 million yuan 8. Jiangxi Copper: 375.39 million yuan 9. Cambricon: 363.92 million yuan 10. Northern Rare Earth: 340.54 million yuan [4]

2026年01月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：下游低位采买意愿增强，宽幅震荡延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：上游减产，盘面亦有支撑 | 6 | | 多晶硅：会议情绪偏好 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 144,370 | -1,740 ...

以幅度进行统计，有色金属行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为1554.22亿元，环比增长3.99%，其 次是建筑装饰、纺织服饰、石油石化行业，环比增幅分别为2.63%、1.97%、1.48%；融资余额环比降幅 居前的行业有建筑材料、美容护理、社会服务等，最新融资余额分别有142.38亿元、69.00亿元、135.67 亿元，分别下降1.04%、0.34%、0.32%。（数据宝） 1月28日各行业融资余额环比变动 | 代码 | 最新融资 | 较上一日增减（亿元） | 环比增幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 余额（亿元） | | | | 有色金属 | 1554.22 | 59.68 | 3.99 | | 通信 | 1352.03 | 12.35 | 0.92 | | 计算机 | 1890.97 | 12.09 | 0.64 | | 建筑装饰 | 427.93 | 10.98 | 2.63 | | 非银金融 | 2021.76 | 10.09 | 0.50 | | 医药生物 | 1705.41 | 9.39 | 0.55 | | 银行 | 845.51 | 8.93 | 1. ...

该公司补充称，预计今年钯产量将达到241.5万至246.5万盎司。 1月28日（周三），全球最大钯金生产商、精炼镍主要生产商俄罗斯诺里尔斯克镍业（Nornickel）表 示，预计2026年镍产量将达到19.3万至20.3万吨。 该公司称2025年镍产量为198,521吨，较上年下降3%，处于公司预期的19.6万至20.4万吨区间内。 Nornickel称2025年钯产量为272.5万盎司，同比下降1%，符合公司267.7万至272.9万盎司的预测区间。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by macroeconomic policies and structural changes in supply and demand, with the sector leading among 31 A-share sub-industries [22][6] - The chemical sector also shows significant growth, with the chemical ETF reaching a new high since July 2022, supported by policy constraints on high-energy and high-carbon emission industries [8][22] Market Overview - As of January 28, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have respective ten-year price-to-earnings ratio percentiles of 99.88%, 93.66%, and 50.51% [1] - The market temperature gauge indicates a bullish sentiment with a 75% threshold [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant inflow of capital, totaling 32.53 billion, while the banking and communication sectors also attracted substantial investments [16] - The top-performing sectors on January 28, 2026, included non-ferrous metals (+5.92%), coal (+3.54%), and oil and petrochemicals (+3.42%) [16] ETF Performance - The non-ferrous ETF (159876) surged by 6.95%, marking a historical high, and has attracted over 1.4 billion in net inflows over the past 20 days [22][19] - The chemical ETF (516020) increased by 2.48%, continuing its upward trend [22][8] Future Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to maintain its strong performance due to emerging demands in AI and renewable energy, alongside domestic policies aimed at regulating industry competition [22][6] - The chemical sector is anticipated to benefit from the expansion of the carbon trading market and the implementation of carbon quota systems, which may reshape cost structures and accelerate the elimination of outdated capacities [8][22]

昨日（1月28日）有色金属板块领涨两市，白银有色、湖南黄金、中国铝业等16只成份股涨停，有色 ETF华宝（159876）场内价格飙涨6.95%，续创历史新高！深交所数据显示，该ETF单日吸金1.85亿元， 拉长时间来看，此前20日连续吸金，合计狂揽超14亿元！ 值得一提的是，今日（1月29日）盘中现货黄金首次突破5500美元大关，本周金价从略低于5000美元的 水平一路狂飙，连破6道整百关口，周涨幅超500美元。 消息面上，北京时间周四（1月29日）凌晨，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利 率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间，符合市场普遍预期。美联储暂停降息但释放未来宽松预期，叠加 市场对鸽派美联储主席人选的押注，推动贵金属避险及抗通胀属性凸显。 中信建投证券认为，只要美联储还处于降息通道中，有色金属价格仍有上涨动力。东方证券指出，美联 储降息周期里，供需偏紧的实物资产，即使是较小的供需缺口也有望产生较大的价格弹性。本轮降息周 期下，以铜、铝为代表的工业金属超级周期或已来临。 另一方面，芝加哥商品交易所对部分白银、铂金和钯金期货合约的保证金参数进行调整，部分白银合约 的新保证金比例提高至 ...

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with 16 constituent stocks including silver and aluminum companies hitting the daily limit, and the Huabao non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) rising by 6.95%, reaching a historical high [1][4] - The Huabao ETF attracted 185 million yuan in a single day, and over the previous 20 days, it accumulated more than 1.4 billion yuan [1][4] - As of January 29, the Huabao ETF's latest scale reached 2.68 billion yuan, marking a new historical high and making it the largest ETF tracking the non-ferrous metal index in the market [4][6] Group 2 - Spot gold prices have surpassed 5,500 USD for the first time, with a weekly increase of over 500 USD, reflecting strong demand for precious metals amid expectations of future monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained its target interest rate between 3.5% and 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, which has bolstered the appeal of precious metals as a hedge against inflation [3] - Analysts from CITIC Securities and Dongfang Securities suggest that as long as the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting cycle, non-ferrous metal prices will continue to have upward momentum, indicating the potential onset of a super cycle for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3][4] Group 3 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has adjusted margin parameters for certain silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts, which may increase short-term volatility in the market [3] - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a comprehensive bull market, with ongoing valuation recovery lagging behind commodity price increases, highlighting the performance elasticity of precious and industrial metals [4][6] - The Huabao ETF covers a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, making it an efficient tool for investors to gain exposure to the non-ferrous metal sector [6]

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/29 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16750 1977 8.49 三月 17065 2026 12.48 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.53 -78.86 跨期套利跟踪 2026/01/29 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 780 1040 1190 1290 理论价差 613 1125 1645 2166 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 710 715 800 780 理论价差 227 361 494 628 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 1410 1440 1460 1450 理论价差 232 365 498 632 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 60 130 180 215 理论价差 210 315 421 527 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 -1380 -1280 -940 -860 锡 5-1 价差 650 理论价差 9075 期现套利跟踪 2026/01/29 铜 当月合约-现货 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai rose to 102,430 CNY, while London copper fluctuated around 13,112 USD [4][17] - The macroeconomic outlook is neutral to bearish, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates and Powell's statements cooling rate cut expectations, alongside escalating tensions in Iran creating risk-averse sentiment [5][17] - The inventory of copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3,130 tons to 148,000 tons, while LME copper stocks rose by 1,575 tons to 173,900 tons, indicating a negative feedback on demand due to high prices [5][17] - Despite downstream purchasing at lower prices, the pressure on spot prices remains, and the market is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the short term, with a reference range of 99,800 - 103,000 CNY per ton for the main copper futures [5][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel and stainless steel market continues to react to Indonesian policy developments, with prices expected to remain high in the short term due to tight policy expectations [6][18] - The supply of nickel from the Philippines is hindered by weather conditions, while Indonesian wet method nickel is relatively abundant, but the supply of fire method nickel is tight [6][18] - The operational range for nickel futures is set at 140,000 - 160,000 CNY per ton, and for stainless steel at 14,000 - 15,500 CNY per ton [6][18] Group 3: Polysilicon Market - The polysilicon market is experiencing weak transaction volumes, with some companies lowering prices and downstream purchasing intentions remaining low due to demand being pulled forward [19] - The silicon industry association forecasts a 15% quarter-on-quarter decrease in polysilicon production for January, with further reductions expected in February to 82,000 - 85,000 tons [19] Group 4: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market saw a slight rebound in alumina prices, with current supply reductions expected to support short-term price increases [20][21] - A major alumina producer in Guizhou has reduced production, leading to a tighter supply in the Southwest region, while logistics are expected to tighten as the Spring Festival approaches [20][21] - The operational range for aluminum futures is set at 24,800 - 26,000 CNY per ton, with a recommendation to hold existing long positions [21] Group 5: Zinc and Lead Markets - Zinc prices are experiencing strong fluctuations, with the macroeconomic environment being mixed following the Federal Reserve's decision to pause rate cuts [23] - Supply-side issues are noted, with production expected to decrease by over 50,000 tons due to maintenance and natural days off in February [23] - The operational range for zinc futures is set at 24,500 - 26,000 CNY per ton, while lead futures are expected to operate within 16,800 - 17,800 CNY per ton [23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Gold**: After a short - term acceleration in precious metals, beware of the risk of a phased reversal [13] - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: The US dollar index rebounds in the short term [17] - **US Stock Index Futures**: During the earnings season, US stocks are more volatile and are expected to remain in a high - level shock [22] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It is more cost - effective to short after the market's upward momentum fades [25] - **Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: In the short term, still treat it with a shock mindset, and if the price rebounds, conduct spot hedging at high prices [30] - **Black Metals (Steam Coal)**: The coal price is expected to be strongly supported [31] - **Black Metals (Iron Ore)**: The ore price is expected to remain weakly volatile in a shock [33] - **Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke)**: In the short term, it will operate weakly in a shock [35] - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: Zhengzhou cotton has increased positions and risen sharply, and there is still a risk of shock and repetition in the future [41] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: Under the threat of the Argentine weather, the internal and external futures prices may fluctuate strongly. Closely monitor the South American weather and production forecast adjustments [43] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: Pay attention to the support levels of domestic palm oil at 9400 - 9500 yuan and Malaysian palm oil at 4300 ringgit. In the short term, focus on the de - stocking range of Malaysian palm oil in January, the specific details of the US 45Z review, and the domestic market's acceptance of Australian rapeseed oil [45] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Still view it with a bullish mindset, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips after the trading volume and volatility stabilize, but pay attention to position control and risk management [48] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing, and the copper price is expected to remain in a high - level shock [52] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: Unilaterally, gradually pay attention to the opportunity to stop losses on short positions; for arbitrage, suggest waiting and seeing [57] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Unilaterally, be cautious about chasing long, continue to hold previous long positions, and manage positions well; for arbitrage, wait and see in terms of month - spread and internal - external spreads [60] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Tin)**: In the short term, it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock. Focus on the implementation of supply recovery expectations and the improvement of consumption [64] - **Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Pay attention to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the short term [66] - **Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly due to ongoing geopolitical disturbances [68] - **Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt)**: The asphalt price fluctuates strongly [69] Core Views - The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept the interest - rate level unchanged, with an increased marginal optimism about the economy, rising market risk appetite, and a rebound in the US dollar index [17] - Gold prices are rising strongly and accelerating, with increased market volatility. The Fed's interest - rate meeting was as expected, and while the employment market is stable, there is an upward risk of inflation [12] - Steel prices continue to fluctuate, recently showing weakness, with no obvious trend - driven factors. The seasonal weakening of building materials demand suppresses steel prices, but the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the valuation is not high, so there is limited downward space [29] - For zinc, the zinc concentrate production of Fresnilloplc in 2025 increased and decreased. Be cautious about chasing long, and previous long positions can be held. Short - term operation is difficult, and position management is recommended [4][59] - The utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt production capacity has decreased. Due to the scarcity of low - price heavy - crude oil resources, the rebound of asphalt is relatively strong, but the pre - holiday stocking pace has slowed down, and the actual demand support is weak [5] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, in line with market expectations. Two Fed governors opposed the decision and supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut [10] - Trump warned Iran, and the situation in Iran remains uncertain, driving gold prices up. The Fed's monetary policy will maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term, and short - term precious - metal fluctuations increase [12] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - The US Treasury Secretary defended the Justice Department's investigation of Powell, emphasizing that independence does not mean no responsibility [14] - Trump threatened Iran and urged it to negotiate a nuclear agreement. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, with a more cautious attitude towards potential future rate adjustments. The US dollar index rebounded in the short term [15][17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Tesla's Q4 earnings were higher than expected, but its annual revenue declined for the first time. Meta's Q4 results, Q1 guidance, and annual capital expenditure exceeded expectations. Microsoft's capital expenditure reached a record high, but the growth rate of its cloud business slowed down [18][19][20] - The Fed continued to suspend rate cuts in January, and future rate cuts are still the benchmark path. Large - tech company earnings support market risk appetite, but the market is sensitive to the slowdown of cloud business. US stocks are expected to remain in a high - level shock during the earnings season [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 377.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations on January 28, with a net investment of 1.4 billion yuan. The central bank's short - term interest - rate control thinking is clearer [23] - The bond market will enter a shock in the short term, but the shock is expected to be short - lived. It is more cost - effective to short after the market's upward momentum fades [23][25] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Many real - estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly. In 2025, China started the renovation of 27,100 old urban residential areas, exceeding the annual plan. The production volume of three major white - goods in February 2026 decreased compared with the same period last year [26][27][29] - Steel prices continue to fluctuate, with the weakening of building materials demand suppressing prices. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the valuation is not high, so the steel price is expected to maintain a shock pattern. Pay attention to the pre - holiday winter - stocking and spot - futures arbitrage operations of traders [29] 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On January 28, the price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable. Some traders expect the coal price to rise, and there was a small amount of demand at the end of the month, but the actual transaction is limited [31] - The steam - coal price has stabilized since January and is expected to be strongly supported in the short term due to the seasonal decline in supply and high demand in February [31] 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - In 2025, Vale's iron - ore production reached the highest level since 2018. In Q4, iron - ore production increased by 6% year - on - year, while pellet production decreased by 9% [32] - Iron - ore prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in a shock before and after the Spring Festival due to concerns about plate orders and the end of raw - material replenishment [32] 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market remained stable. Most coal mines maintained normal production, and downstream coke enterprises' replenishment was basically completed. The first round of coke price increase is still in the game stage [34] - In the short term, the coking - coal market will operate weakly in a shock due to high supply and the end of downstream replenishment [34] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of January 24, 2026, the cotton - planting progress in Brazil reached 60.6%, accelerating significantly year - on - year. As of January 23, the inspection volume of US cotton accounted for 96.9% of the estimated annual output, with a slower progress year - on - year [36][37] - The sales rate of Xinjiang cotton is higher than that of the previous year, and cotton enterprises are more willing to support the basis. Zhengzhou cotton increased positions and rose sharply, but there is still a risk of shock and repetition in the future due to factors such as the narrowing of the cotton - yarn price difference and the approaching Spring Festival [40] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - It is estimated that the domestic soybean - crushing volume in February will decrease year - on - year. The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in February is about 5.005 million tons, and the estimated arrivals in March and April are 4.8 million tons and 9.5 million tons respectively [42][43] - The hot and dry weather in Argentina threatens soybean production, and the CBOT soybean and soybean - meal futures prices have risen. The domestic soybean - meal spot market is stable, and the internal and external futures prices may fluctuate strongly under the threat of the Argentine weather [43] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Argentina is experiencing continuous high - temperature and drought weather, which may lead to a decline in the 2025/26 crop yield [44] - The oil market continued to rise. The drought in Argentina may affect the new - crop soybean yield and support the FOB price of Argentine soybean oil. Pay attention to the support levels of palm oil and relevant factors such as the de - stocking of Malaysian palm oil and the domestic acceptance of Australian rapeseed oil [45] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Tianci Materials' annual production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate is about 110,000 tons, and it plans to expand the production capacity in the future [46] - The lithium - carbonate market is in a high - level shock, and the core issue is the downward price transmission. The demand supports the price, but the industrial negative feedback needs time to materialize. It is recommended to view it with a bullish mindset and pay attention to long - on - dip opportunities [47][48] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The owners of Turkey's largest open - pit copper mine have hired Goldman Sachs to handle the sale. Grupo Mexico plans to invest billions of dollars in multiple projects in the next decade, and its 2026 copper production plan is 1.028 million tons [50][52] - In the short term, the copper price is likely to operate in a high - level shock due to the volatile US dollar, marginal improvement in domestic demand, and weakening downstream replenishment demand [52] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The fog in Henan affected the arrival of waste batteries, and a large - scale smelting enterprise reduced production by 30%. The LME lead was at a discount of $47.43 per ton on January 27 [53][54][56] - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Although the reduction of secondary smelters is expanding, there is no clear upward driving force, and the lead price may bottom - seek in the short term [56] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On January 27, the LME zinc was at a discount of $30.81 per ton. Fresnilloplc's zinc - concentrate production in 2025 was 105,900 tons, a 9% year - on - year decrease, and its production guidance for 2026 is 85,000 - 95,000 tons [58] - The zinc price rose due to the influence of the aluminum price. The overseas energy price increased, and the February smelting production is expected to decline. Be cautious about chasing long, hold previous long positions, and manage positions well [59][60] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - India significantly reduced the tariff on EU cars, and the price of LPDDR memory used in iPhone increased. On January 27, the LME tin was at a discount of $244 per ton [61][62][63] - The supply - side recovery of tin is uncertain, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. Pay attention to the implementation of supply recovery and consumption improvement [63][64] 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA crude - oil inventory decreased in the week ending January 23. Trump threatened Iran again, and the market is pricing in the risk of escalating tensions in the Middle East [65] - Oil prices are rising in a shock, and the short - term market focus is on geopolitical situations, with a possibility of further increase [65] 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of January 23, the EIA propane/propylene inventory decreased by 4.7 million barrels. The increase in exports was the main reason for the inventory reduction, and the price was strong due to geopolitical disturbances [67] - Due to ongoing geopolitical disturbances, the price of liquefied petroleum gas is expected to fluctuate strongly [68] 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - From January 22 - 28, 2026, the utilization rate of domestic asphalt production capacity decreased. The BU futures price rose stronger than crude oil due to the scarcity of low - price heavy - crude oil resources, but the pre - holiday stocking slowed down, and the actual demand support was weak [68] - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and pay attention to the post - holiday raw - material procurement [68][69]