Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to reach a total market value of 100 trillion yuan by 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking 4,000 points, marking a nearly ten-year high. The focus is on identifying investment opportunities in various sectors for 2026 [2]. Group 1: Economic Recovery and Cyclical Stocks - The current market emphasizes cyclical sectors, driven by strong expectations for economic recovery in 2026. The cyclical stock market typically progresses through three phases: recovery expectations, performance improvement, and market peak. Currently, the market is in the first phase, sensitive to marginal changes [4][6]. - The metals sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, is likely entering the second phase, while the chemical industry remains in the first phase. Despite recent price adjustments due to macro events, the long-term outlook for non-ferrous metals remains resilient [4][8]. Group 2: Investment Logic and Market Dynamics - The cyclical market's current focus is based on the recognition of past economic conditions and strong expectations for improvement in 2026. The demand-side policies are anticipated to emerge, particularly with the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [6][7]. - The cyclical market is characterized by a supply-demand dynamic, where a reduction in supply coupled with increasing demand is expected to drive price increases. The current phase is seen as a preparatory stage for potential price hikes in cyclical products [7][9]. Group 3: Specific Sector Insights - Within the non-ferrous metals sector, copper and aluminum are showing strong performance due to supply constraints and increasing demand driven by technological advancements, particularly in AI and infrastructure [8][9]. - The supply of copper is expected to face a rigid shortfall over the next 3-5 years due to insufficient capital expenditure and declining ore grades. The demand for copper is projected to increase significantly, particularly in the context of AI infrastructure and grid upgrades [8][9]. Group 4: Precious Metals Outlook - The recent volatility in gold and silver prices reflects global uncertainties and geopolitical risks, positioning these metals as safe-haven assets. The long-term bullish outlook for precious metals remains intact as long as the macro environment of uncertainty persists [10]. - The fluctuations in precious metals are influenced by market sentiments and the potential changes in monetary policy under new Federal Reserve leadership, which could impact liquidity and market dynamics [10].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant increase in global copper inventories, which have more than doubled over the past year, reaching approximately 1 million tons, a five-year high, despite supply disruptions in global mining [1][2]. - The report indicates that as of February 2026, global total copper inventory stands at about 1 million tons, marking a 113% increase from 470,000 tons in the same period of 2025, underscoring a weakening demand side [2]. Group 2 - Market signals show mixed results, with copper concentrate treatment charges remaining negative, indicating tight supply on the raw material side, while speculative positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME) are declining, reflecting cautious investor sentiment [4]. - As of early February 2026, copper prices are holding steady at around $5.30 per pound, but both technical and sentiment indicators suggest short-term pressure on prices [4]. Group 3 - The outlook for the copper market remains cautious, with expectations for prices to consolidate around $12,000 per ton (approximately $5.45 per pound), primarily due to seasonal demand weakness and high inventory levels [8]. - The market may see new volatility and upward opportunities only after clearer signals of demand recovery post the Chinese New Year holiday in the latter part of Q2 2026, contingent on economic stimulus measures and increased manufacturing orders [8].

Group 1: Market Dynamics - On February 4, copper futures in Shanghai opened strongly, with prices returning above 104,000 yuan/ton, closing at 105,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,530 yuan or 3.47% [1] - The main contract for copper (2603) saw a trading volume of 241,402 lots, a decrease of 133,837 lots, while open interest increased by 981 lots to 192,868 lots [1] - Domestic spot copper prices surged, with Jiangxi's 1 copper price reported at 105,020 yuan/ton, up 3,640 yuan, and prices in Guangdong and Shanghai also showing significant increases [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - China plans to increase its national copper reserves, which may further drive up copper prices, reflecting a global trend towards enhancing supply security [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding monetary policy, with some officials advocating for significant interest rate cuts, while others emphasize controlling inflation as a core task [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, are contributing to a persistent risk-averse sentiment globally, impacting metal markets positively [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - The EU is considering increasing trade sanctions against Russia, which may include restrictions on imports of platinum group metals and copper, potentially affecting global supply [3] - The copper market is experiencing a rebound due to strong fundamentals and positive sentiment from reserve news, despite challenges in overseas mine restarts and low inventory levels outside the U.S. [3] - The current rise in copper prices may suppress some downstream purchasing intentions, with seasonal declines in copper rod operating rates observed [3] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - The macro sentiment recovery is supporting the rebound in copper prices, but attention is needed on key U.S. mineral meetings [4] - The overall metal market is entering a phase of oscillation and adjustment, with expectations of reduced short-term volatility [4]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the positive performance of the non-ferrous metal industry, driven by rising gold prices and the anticipated growth in the global economy, particularly due to the rise of artificial intelligence and structural changes in the monetary system [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 4, 2026, the China Securities Non-ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index (000811) increased by 0.27%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Jinmoly Co., Ltd. (4.28%) and Xingye Silver Tin (3.79%) [1]. - The Huatai-PB Non-ferrous Metal ETF rose by 0.57%, with a remarkable annual increase of 118.67% as of February 3, 2026 [1]. - The unit net value of the Huatai-PB Non-ferrous Metal Industry Theme ETF Initiated Link C (019165) was 2.31 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.72% and a monthly increase of 14.90% [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - Experts predict a moderate growth in the global economy for 2026, with the non-ferrous metal industry expected to see an industrial added value growth of around 5% and a production increase of 2% for ten common non-ferrous metals [2]. - The industry is anticipated to maintain a fixed asset investment growth rate, with revenue growth projected at 5% and a slight increase in profits [2]. Group 3: Fund Performance - The Huatai-PB Non-ferrous Metal Industry Theme ETF Initiated Link C (019165) has shown a maximum monthly return of 20.81% since its inception, with a longest consecutive monthly gain of 6 months and a total increase of 63.79% [2]. - As of January 30, 2026, the fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year was 3.44, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [2]. - The fund has a maximum drawdown of 14.38%, ranking 2 out of 5 in its category, suggesting relatively low risk compared to its peers [3].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-04 淡季不淡，碳酸锂价格反弹 根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为107482吨，环比-1414吨。其中冶炼厂库存为19003吨，环比-831吨；下游库 存为41485吨，环比+3007吨；其他库存为47880吨，环比-3590吨。 策略 当前价格波动较大，春节假期临近，需关注持仓风险，短期区间操作为主。但碳酸锂基本面依然较好，若回调幅 度过大，可考虑逢低做多。 单边：若回调幅度较大，可考虑逢低做多 风险 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 市场分析 2026-02-03，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于140040元/吨，收于148100元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化4.63%。当日 成交量为619542手，持仓量为355770手，前一交易日持仓量347698手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为7520元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单33084手，较上个交易日变化843手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价142000-165000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-2000元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价139000-1610 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - On February 3, 2026, SHFE silver futures closed at 21,446 CNY/kg, down 16.71% from the previous day[1] - The premium of SHFE silver futures over LME silver decreased from 29.8% at the end of January to 7.46% by February 3[1] - SHFE silver futures rose by 5.93% in the night session on February 4, closing at 22,393 CNY/kg[1] Group 2: Precious Metals Insights - The long-term narrative for precious metals remains unchanged, with expectations of continued support for gold prices due to "de-dollarization" and loose fiscal and monetary policies[3] - The volatility of silver futures remains high, with implied volatility reaching 148% on February 2 and remaining above 100% on February 3, compared to an average of 27% in 2025[5] - Gold futures implied volatility was close to 40% as of February 3, significantly higher than the 19% average for 2025[5] Group 3: Commodity Market Dynamics - The liquidity shock has ended, as indicated by the opening of the silver futures limit down on February 3, suggesting a stabilization in market risks[5] - The commodity market is expected to return to fundamental pricing logic for certain products that were "wronged" during the liquidity crisis[5] - The core logic of the commodity market remains intact despite the liquidity shock, with solid fundamentals for certain commodities still offering investment value[5] Group 4: Sector-Specific Analysis - Non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from new economic demands driven by AI and green energy, despite recent price adjustments[6] - The chemical sector is experiencing a structural demand shift, with emerging industries driving growth, indicating potential for continued market improvement in 2026[6] - New energy metals, particularly lithium carbonate, are projected to achieve supply-demand balance, presenting bullish investment opportunities[6]

Content: --------- <doc id='1'>融资融券月报 13307 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额继续上升 ――融资融券 2 月月报</doc> <doc id='2'>| 分析师：王雪莹 | SAC NO：S1150525020001 2026 年 2 月 4 日 | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师 | 核心观点： | | 王[Table_IndInvest] 雪莹 | | | | 市场概况 | |  022-23839121 | | | wangxy4430@bhzq.com  | 本月（1 月 1 日-1 月 30 日）A 股市场主要指数全部上涨，其中科创 50 | | | 涨幅最大，上涨了 12.29%；上证 50 涨幅最小，上涨了 1.17%。此外， | | | 上证综指上涨 3.76 %，深证成指上涨 5.03%，创业板指上涨 4.47%， | | | 沪深 上涨 上涨 300 1.65 %，中证 500 12.12%。 | |  | 截至 1 月 30 日，沪深两市两融余额为 27,064.74 亿元，较上月末增加 | | | 1,737.60亿元。其中融资余额为 26,898.76 亿元，较上月末增加 1,736.88 | | | 亿元；融券余额为 165.99 亿元，较上月末增加 0.72 亿元。市场 ETF | | | 融资余额为 亿元，较上月末增加 亿元；融券余额为 1128.80 33.06 73.71 | | | 亿元，较上月末增加 亿元。户均融资融券余额为 元，较 0.94 1,414,996 | | | 上月末增加 35,599 元；有融资融券负债的投资者数量占全体融资融券 | | | 投资者数量的占比为 23.97%，较上月末增加 0.73 个百分点。1 月 1 日 | | | -1 月 30 日每日平均参与融资融券交易的投资者数量为 600,192 名，较 | | | 上月增长 42.73%。 | |  | 板块方面，主板和科创板融资余额占沪深两市 A 股融资余额比例下降， | | | 创业板占沪深两市 A 股融资余额比例上升。融券方面，主板和科创板融 | | | 券余额占沪深两市 A 股融券余额比例上升，创业板占沪深两市 A 股融券 | | | 余额比例下降。 | |  | 标的券情况 | |  | 行业方面，本月有色金属、电子和非银金融行业融资净买入额较多，建 | | | 筑材料、轻工制造和美容护理行业融资净买入额较少；本月融资买入额 | | | 占成交额比例较高的行业为非银金融、通信和电子，较低的行业为纺织 | | | 服饰、轻工制造和建筑材料；本月有色金属、食品饮料和家用电器行业 | | | 融券净卖出额较多，电力设备、电子和医药生物行业融券净卖出额较少。 | |  | 个股方面，本月个股融资净买入额前五名为中国平安（601318）、紫金 | | | 矿业（601899）、天孚通信（300394）、招商银行（600036）、长江电 | | | 力（600900）。本月个股融券净卖出额前五名为贵州茅台（600519）、 | | | 赤峰黄金（600988）、兴业银锡（000426）、美的集团（000333）、洛 | | | 阳钼业（603993）。 | |  | 风险提示：两融业务成本超预期变动风险；两融监管政策超预期变动风 | | | 险。 | | 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 | 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 20 |</doc> <doc id='3'>金 融 工 程 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 融 资 融 券 月 报</doc> <doc id='5'>| 1. 市场数据概览 | | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2. 行业融资融券特征 | | 9 | | 3. ETF 标的券 | | 13 | | 4. 个股标的券及重大事项 | | 15 | | 5. 结论 | | 17 |</doc> <doc id='6'>| | |</doc> <doc id='7'>| 图 1：近一年沪深 300 收盘价与融资买入额占成交额比例 4 | | --- | | 图 2：本月融资业务情况 5 | | 图 3：本月融券业务情况 5 | | 图 4：近五年两融余额情况 6 | | 图 5：各板块融资余额情况（亿元） 6 | | 图 6：各板块融券余额情况（亿元） 6 | | 图 7：各指数融资余额情况（亿元） 7 | | 图 8：各指数融券余额情况（亿元） 7 | | 图 9：近一年融资融券机构投资者及个人投资者数量 8 | | 图 10：近一年参与融资融券交易的投资者数量与有融资融券负债的投资者数量 8 | | 图 11：本月申万一级行业涨跌幅及融资买入额占成交额比例（%） 9 | | 图 12：本月行业融资净买入额情况（万元） 9 | | 图 13：本月行业融券净卖出额情况（万元） 10 | | 图 14：近一年 ETF 融资融券余额情况 13 | </doc> <doc id='8'>| 表 1：A | 股市场主要指数本月表现 4 | | --- | --- | | 表 2：本月标的券所属行业融资情况 10 | | | 表 3：本月标的券所属行业融券情况 11 | | | 表 4：本月 ETF 融资净买入前 20 | 名 13 | | 表 5：本月个股融资净买入前 20 | 名 15 | | 表 6：本月融资买入额占成交额比例前 | 20 名 15 | | 表 7：本月个股融券净卖出前 20 | 名 16 |</doc> <doc id='9'>1. 市场数据概览 本月（1 月 1 日-1 月 30 日）A 股市场主要指数全部上涨，其中科创 50 涨幅最大， 上涨了 12.29%；上证 50 涨幅最小，上涨了 1.17%。此外，上证综指上涨 3.76 %， 深证成指上涨 5.03%，创业板指上涨 4.47%，沪深 300 上涨 1.65 %，中证 500 上涨 12.12%。</doc> <doc id='10'>表 1：A 股市场主要指数本月表现 | 指数名称 | 12 月 31 日收盘价 | 1 月 30 日收盘价 | 月涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3968.84 | 4117.95 | 3.76 | | 深证成指 | 13525.02 | 14205.89 | 5.03 | | 创业板指 | 3203.17 | 3346.36 | 4.47 | | 科创 50 | 1344.20 | 1509.40 | 12.29 | | 沪深 300 | 4629.94 | 4706.34 | 1.65 | | 上证 50 | 3031.13 | 3066.50 | 1.17 | | 中证 500 | 7465.57 | 8370.52 | 12.12 | 资料来源：同花顺，渤海证券研究所 图 1：近一年沪深 300 收盘价与融资买入额占成交额比例</doc> <doc id='12'>资料来源：同花顺，渤海证券研究所 1 月 30 日，沪深两市两融余额为 27,064.74 亿元，较上月末增加 1,737.

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a reversal with net inflows after several days of capital outflows, with total trading volume exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan on February 3 [1] - On February 3, nearly 10 billion yuan flowed into the stock ETF market, marking one of the few days of net inflow since January [1][5] - The top-performing ETFs included those tracking the CSI 500, CSI 300, and STAR Market 50 indices, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and photovoltaics saw significant outflows [1][5] Group 2 - As of February 3, the total scale of stock ETFs reached 4.15 trillion yuan, with trading volume for stock ETFs at 298.75 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 20 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] - The leading sectors on that day were new energy and non-ferrous metals, with four of the top ten ETFs by increase in price belonging to the new energy sector [2][3] - The worst-performing ETFs included those related to new economy, Hong Kong Stock Connect technology, brokerage, and banking, with declines around 1% to nearly 7% [3] Group 3 - On February 3, the net inflow for stock ETFs was approximately 97.52 billion yuan, with 56 ETFs seeing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan [5][7] - The CSI 500 index led with a net inflow of 3.80 billion yuan, while the SGE Gold 9999 index saw a net outflow of 6.84 billion yuan [6] - Recent inflows into sector-specific indices included over 6.1 billion yuan into the semiconductor index and over 4.6 billion yuan into the STAR Market chip index [6] Group 4 - The top three ETFs by net inflow on February 3 were the CSI 500 ETF with 3.57 billion yuan, the Securities ETF with 1.12 billion yuan, and the A500 ETF with 973 million yuan [7] - Conversely, the ETFs with the highest net outflows included the Non-Ferrous Metals ETF and the Gold Stock ETF, with outflows of 4.18 billion yuan and 714 million yuan respectively [8] Group 5 - Major fund companies like E Fund and Huaxia Fund saw significant inflows into their ETFs, with E Fund's total ETF scale reaching 652.35 billion yuan, an increase of 9.64 billion yuan [9] - Notable inflows for E Fund included 711 million yuan into the CSI 300 ETF and 528 million yuan into the China Concept Internet ETF [9] - Fund manager Huang Yue from Guotai Fund expressed optimism for a spring market rally in Q1 2026, focusing on sectors like securities, new energy, semiconductors, and consumer services [9]

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report indicates that after significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices, the market is influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and the strong dollar, which may lead to a bearish outlook for gold prices in the short term [11][12][10] - The report suggests that high-risk investors with insufficient positions may consider participating in gold and silver trading to adjust their holdings, while long-term asset allocation should reduce gold's proportion due to uncertainties surrounding inflation control and strong dollar policies [11][12][10] Group 2: Market Performance in January - In January, precious metals continued to show strong performance, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with COMEX silver rising by 131.61% and COMEX gold increasing by 26.44% from November 2025 to January 28, 2026 [13][14] - The report highlights a structural recovery in the domestic stock market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 4.6% in January, while the performance of financial and consumer sectors was relatively weak [15][19] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - The report notes that the commodity market is characterized by increased geopolitical disturbances and rising risk premiums for physical assets, with industrial metals supported by recovering manufacturing activity and structural demand from AI and renewable energy sectors [29][30] - Oil prices are influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly the situation in Iran, with expectations of oversupply in the medium term as global supply is projected to increase significantly [35][36] Group 4: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to oscillate between 1.8% and 1.9% due to policy support and market expectations [28][21] - The report indicates that the defensive attributes of the bond market have weakened, reflecting a shift in investor preference towards equities and commodities amid rising risk appetite [16][21]