策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2026 年 2 月 6 日 策略点评 2025 年 A 股业绩预告 整体景气延续修复，扩散度上行，景气行业趋势延续。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 ◼ 截至 2026 年 2 月 5 日，全 A 共有 3 家公司披露 2025 年年报，84 家公司 发布业绩快报，2950 家公司发布业绩预告，合计披露 2025 年经营数据的 公司数为 3037 家，整体披露率 58.8%。 ◼ 样本公司 2025 年整体法口径下，盈利增速为 36.9%，较 2025Q3 的 14.3% 有所上行。中位数法口径下，盈利增速为 15.7%，较 2025Q3 的 3.2%有所 上行。 ◼ 样本公司（非金融）整体法口径下，2025 年整体法盈利增速为 247.0%， 较 ...

Group 1 - The investment market for 2026 is characterized by three keywords: "grand waves," "great opportunities," and "restraint" [2] - The market activity in 2025 was extremely high, and the momentum is expected to continue into 2026, indicating that there are still opportunities for significant returns [2][3] - Not all sectors will be profitable; some have accumulated risks and should be approached with caution [2] Group 2 - Political factors are increasingly influential in the economic landscape, with a shift from "small government" to "big government" globally, necessitating alignment with national policies for successful investments [3] - The resilience of the Chinese market has been validated, with the ability to respond to trade tensions, suggesting that future market reactions to such events may be more muted [3] - The contrasting economic conditions between the US and China, with high valuations in the US and ongoing deflationary pressures in China, are expected to improve, potentially leading to a return of international capital to China [3] Group 3 - A strong recommendation is made for investors to focus on equity assets, whether through direct stock investments or participation in reliable equity projects, as they are expected to yield favorable returns in 2026 [4] - The A-share market is anticipated to outperform the Hong Kong market in 2026, following historical trends where A-shares lead in later stages of a bull market [5] - The stock market in 2026 is expected to be characterized by "structured trends," with opportunities likely arising from sectors that have not yet fully developed [5] Group 4 - Sectors such as home appliances, logistics, consumer goods, and healthcare are highlighted as having strong potential for growth due to improved competitive dynamics following supply-side adjustments [5][10] - The application of AI in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and healthcare services is expected to drive significant advancements, although the timeline for realizing these benefits may vary [9][10] - Traditional consumer goods, often labeled as "old economy," are expected to experience a resurgence as domestic demand recovers, presenting investment opportunities [11] Group 5 - High-dividend assets are recommended as a stabilizing component in investment portfolios, although they may not be the primary focus in 2026 [12] - The importance of diversification in investment strategies is emphasized to mitigate risks associated with specific sectors [7] - Real estate and bonds are not favored for investment in 2026, with a suggestion to wait for more favorable conditions before considering real estate investments [7]

Group 1 - The article highlights the transformation of the Sanfang Industrial Park in Haimen District, Nantong City, from a historical industrial hub to a modern industrial highland, driven by innovation and industry [1] - Zhongxing Energy, a leading company in the steel pipe industry, has significantly improved its production efficiency with a fully automated acid washing line, increasing its annual capacity to 70,000 tons while reducing labor needs to just 8 workers [1] - The intelligent logistics warehouse of Weibosite has enhanced order response times for major brands like Uniqlo and ZARA through a digital twin technology-integrated storage system, promoting standardization and high-end development in the fabric industry [1] Group 2 - In the life and health sector, Jiangsu Huiju Pharmaceutical, recognized as a "little giant" enterprise, leads the industry with an integrated strategy of raw materials and formulations, serving over 300 global clients [2] - The new materials industry is experiencing robust growth, with companies like Ronghui Lithium and Xinwei Nickel Cobalt driving the development of lithium battery materials and optical communication technologies, creating a comprehensive industrial ecosystem [2] - The Sanfang Industrial Park reported an industrial output value of 3.812 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.37%, alongside a 42% increase in general public budget revenue [2] Group 3 - The park is leveraging national strategies such as the Yangtze River Economic Belt to cultivate a cluster of technology-driven enterprises, positioning itself as a benchmark for industrial transformation and innovation in the region [3] - The park's leadership emphasizes the importance of a supportive business environment, aiming to attract high-end resources and facilitate the transformation of research achievements into practical applications [3] - The revitalization of the Qinglong Port area combines historical industrial heritage with modern innovation, enhancing tourism value and benefiting from improved transportation links to Shanghai [3]

医药集采推行至今，其成效之显著已被实践反复证明。医药集采针对药价虚高这一民生痛点，通过"以 量换价"，让很多高价药的价格出现断崖式下降，将心脏支架、人工关节等关键耗材的价格从"万元 档"成功拉回"百元档"。价格水分被挤出，患者负担显著减轻。这项改革深得人心，民众拍手称快。 然而，当集采政策实实在在惠及民众时，部分自媒体却绞尽脑汁唱反调，其污名化手段可谓花样翻新。 比如，部分账号挖空心思炮制"集采药品质量不佳""集采耗材暗藏猫腻"之类的谎言，言之凿凿却毫无实 证。另一些则更为狡猾，刻意将网络上收集的关于非集采产品的质量问题视频，经过剪辑加工，强行与 集采政策挂钩，混淆视听。还有一些自媒体账号热衷于制造对立，编造"进口药集体退出中国"等耸人听 闻的假消息，煽动公众对原研药与仿制药的焦虑情绪。这些行为虽然手段不一，但其卑劣却无二致。 秋实 近期，中央网信办会同国家医保局深入整治涉医药集中带量采购的网上虚假不实信息，依法依约处置一 批污名集采、制造焦虑、误导公众的账号。药品、医用耗材集采政策事关群众切身利益，编造、传播涉 医药集采虚假不实信息，将受到严肃惩戒。网信部门和医保部门提醒广大群众，理性、客观、科学看待 医药 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the lesser-known topic of bond index funds and offers a free course on investment methods for these funds [2] - It highlights the importance of understanding the current profit growth situation of listed companies behind different stock categories in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [6] - The article emphasizes that long-term returns are primarily driven by the profit growth of listed companies rather than valuation fluctuations [6] Group 2 - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the technology and pharmaceutical sectors are experiencing profit growth in a prosperous cycle, indicating strong performance in recent years [6] - A-shares with dividends and Hong Kong consumer stocks are in a recovery cycle for profit growth, suggesting potential for future improvement [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions, focusing on the performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, the impact of deposit maturities on the stock market, and the valuation of dividend indices. Market Performance - The overall market experienced a decline, with small and mid-cap stocks falling more than large-cap stocks. The ChiNext and STAR Market indices dropped around 1.5%. However, Hong Kong stocks showed resilience, rebounding in the afternoon and closing higher [2][3]. - The A-share market has seen a 3.4% correction from its peak in this bull market, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index has corrected by 4.2%. Since September 2024, both markets have risen by 50-60% [2][3][4]. Deposit Maturities and Market Impact - A significant amount of deposits, approximately 50 trillion yuan, is set to mature between late 2025 and early 2026, with most maturing in the first two quarters of 2026 [4][5][6]. - The current interest rates on deposits are lower than in previous years, leading to speculation about whether these funds will flow into the stock market. However, only a small portion is expected to enter equity assets due to the low-risk appetite of depositors [7][8][9]. Investment Strategies - It is suggested that only 5-10% of the maturing deposit funds may flow into stock markets, translating to several hundred billion to a trillion yuan potentially entering the market, which is seen as a positive but not overwhelmingly large impact [14][15]. - The article emphasizes that new funds and profits taken from the market should consider stable fixed-income strategies rather than aggressive stock investments, especially when the market is rated around 3 stars [21][22][23]. Dividend Indices Valuation - The article provides a valuation table for various dividend indices, highlighting their earnings yield, price-to-earnings ratio, price-to-book ratio, and dividend yield. For instance, the Shanghai Dividend Index has an earnings yield of 9.79% and a P/E ratio of 10.21 [24][25]. - The valuation of dividend indices is crucial as they have been among the fastest-growing index funds in recent years, and the article encourages investors to explore these options [28][30].

Group 1 - Kailong High-Tech is focusing on the embodied intelligence sector, launching the "Huilingjia" series of robots and dexterous intelligent detection equipment, which are still in the market development stage and have not yet generated revenue [2] - Wuzhou New Spring plans to establish a joint venture with Zhongzhe High-Speed Rail, focusing on the research and manufacturing of high-end equipment bearings, with a registered capital of 60 million yuan [3] - GCL-Poly has not yet received any orders in the "space photovoltaic" sector, which remains in the exploratory stage, and this has not materially impacted the company's performance [5] Group 2 - Guoxuan High-Tech plans to raise no more than 5 billion yuan through a private placement, with proceeds allocated to a 20GWh power battery project and other related initiatives [4] - Xingsheng Zhitu confirmed that its operations are normal and there are no undisclosed significant matters [6] - Nanjin Mining intends to invest 30 million USD to acquire a 10% stake in Eagle Valley Gold Company, pending regulatory approvals [7] Group 3 - Lixun Precision plans to engage in foreign exchange derivatives trading for up to one year, with a cumulative limit of 4.9 billion USD [8] - Heng Rui Medicine's HR091506 tablet application for market approval has been accepted by the National Medical Products Administration, targeting long-term treatment for hyperuricemia in gout patients [11] - Wen's shares reported a revenue of 4.698 billion yuan from pork sales in January 2026, a decrease of 11.17% month-on-month [12] Group 4 - Yingjixin reported a net profit of 177 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.81% [13] - Xibu Muye's fresh milk production in January 2026 was 3,076.65 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.54% [15] - Alibaba Health's shareholding in Shuyupingmin has decreased to 5.39% following a series of share reductions [16] Group 5 - Jiangfeng Electronics plans to acquire control of Kaide Quartz, with stock resuming trading on February 6 [17] - Runze Technology is planning to issue convertible bonds to acquire minority stakes in Runhui Technology, leading to a stock suspension starting February 6 [18] - Tianqimo is planning to purchase shares of Dongshi Automotive Technology Group, resulting in a stock suspension from February 6 [19] Group 6 - ST Lifang's stock has surged by 314.93% from January 20 to February 5, leading to a suspension for risk assessment [20][21]

3、美团：拟7.17亿美元收购叮咚 美团2月5日公告，公司拟以7.17亿美元收购中国大陆领先的生鲜电商企业叮咚的全部已发行股份。根据 协议，转让方可从目标集团提取不超过2.8亿美元的资金，但需确保目标集团净现金不低于1.5亿美元。 此次收购将使目标公司成为美团的间接全资附属公司，其财务业绩将并入美团的财务报表。 4、天汽模：筹划购买东实股份股权 股票停牌 天汽模2月5日公告，公司正在筹划通过发行股份及支付现金的方式购买东实汽车科技集团股份有限公司 股权并募集配套资金，预计构成重大资产重组。公司股票自2026年2月6日起停牌，预计在不超过10个交 易日内披露交易方案。若公司未能在上述期限内召开董事会审议并披露交易方案，公司股票将于2026年 3月2日开市起复牌并终止筹划相关事项。 5、两连板协鑫集成：公司暂未获得"太空光伏"领域的相关订单 今日聚焦 1、百度集团：董事会已批准一项新的50亿美元股份回购计划 百度集团2月5日公告，董事会已批准一项新的50亿美元股份回购计划及一项股息政策，旨在进一步提升 股东回报。 2、太极实业：子公司十一科技预中标华虹FAB9B项目投标报价37.78亿元 太极实业2月5日公告，子 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a phase of adjustment after a period of overheating, primarily due to expectations of tightening overseas liquidity and pressure from cyclical sector corrections [1][5]. Group 1: Market Outlook - February is identified as a rare performance vacuum period, with a stable situation in the Asia-Pacific region; however, the extended Spring Festival may lead to early profit-taking by some funds [6]. - The market is expected to exhibit a volatile pattern, emphasizing the importance of stock selection [6]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Medical Technology - The company remains optimistic about the ongoing wave of technological innovation in the medical and consumer sectors, particularly driven by AI and domestic industry advancements, which present investment opportunities in the Chinese capital market [7][8]. - Key areas of focus include AI in healthcare, brain-computer interfaces, surgical robots, AI-driven innovative drugs, innovative medical devices, and cell gene nucleic acid therapies [7][8]. Group 3: New Logic for Innovative Drugs - The previous BD (business development) trading model for innovative drugs is losing effectiveness, necessitating a new guiding logic for the capital market to foster a new market trend [9]. - Three potential directions for innovative drugs are identified: 1. Core value return, where the globalization of domestic innovative drugs does not require excessive speculation 2. Performance explosion, with some outbound platform-type innovative drug companies expected to show nonlinear profit releases 3. Positive cycle of BD trading, where market sentiment is cyclical, transitioning from excessive enthusiasm to extreme lows, leading to a significant drop in overseas BD expectations for many companies [9].

一、复牌、停牌 1、江丰电子：拟收购凯德石英15.6424%股份，股票复牌。 2、天汽模：正在筹划通过发行股份及支付现金的方式购买东实汽车科技集团股权并募集配套资金，股 票停牌。 2、锐新科技：拟发行股份及支付现金购买资产并募集配套资金，股票停牌。 二、定增 国轩高科：拟定增募资不超过50亿元，用于年产20GWh动力电池项目等。 三、增持 孚日股份：安信投资及其一致行动人拟增持300万股-500万股 四、对外投资、日常经营 1、融发核电：全资子公司中标1.01亿元中广核工程公司项目。 2、复星医药：控股子公司与Eisai签订许可协议。 3、健麾信息：拟7371万元收购AI应用公司博科国信38%股权。 4、广生堂：乙肝治疗一类创新药奈瑞可韦GST-HG141完成III期临床试验受试者入组。 5、*ST张股：公司及子公司重整计划执行完毕。 6、立讯精密：拟适度开展外汇衍生品交易业务不超过一年，任意时点累计折合等值不超过49亿美元。 7、东南网架：联合中标9.94亿元EPC项目。 五、业绩变动 1、英集芯：2025年净利润1.77亿元，同比增长42.81%；公司产品在电池管理、PMU、新能源、工业车 规等多个领域实 ...