Core Viewpoint - The recent "reciprocal tariffs" implemented by the United States are concerning, significantly impacting European exporters, including those from Portugal, and are characterized by clear asymmetry as a unilateral action by the U.S. [1] Group 1: Impact on Exports - Portugal's exports to the U.S. in June fell by 39.4% year-on-year, decreasing from €557 million in 2024 to €338 million [1] - In the second quarter, Portugal's exports to the U.S. decreased by 13.9% year-on-year, from €1.419 billion to €1.221 billion [1] Group 2: Industry Concerns - Portuguese producers in the automotive and machinery sectors will face increased costs to access the U.S. market due to the U.S. tariff policy [1] - The U.S. tariff policy represents a significant blow to the strategic autonomy of Europe and the image of transatlantic trade policy [1] Group 3: Advocacy for Multilateralism - Portugal advocates for a more equitable international trade system based on clear rules, emphasizing the need for balanced interdependence, economic sustainability, and openness [1] - The U.S. approach is seen as contrary to the global development direction, which should be rooted in multilateral cooperation rather than protectionism [1]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to identify market trends and hotspots. It is based on the momentum and trend-following strategy, which has been proven effective in various studies[11][19]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated using the formula: $ 250\ Day\ New\ High\ Distance = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value representing the percentage drop[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: This model effectively identifies stocks or indices with strong momentum and highlights market leaders during upward trends[11][19]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Screening Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying stocks that exhibit stable momentum characteristics, such as smooth price paths and consistent new highs, which are less likely to be influenced by extreme short-term fluctuations[25]. - **Model Construction Process**: The screening process involves the following steps: 1. **Analyst Attention**: Stocks must have at least five "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings in the past three months[27]. 2. **Relative Strength**: Stocks must rank in the top 20% of the market based on their 250-day price performance[27]. 3. **Price Stability**: Stocks are scored based on two indicators: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Measured by the ratio of price displacement to the total price movement over the past 120 days[25][27]. - **New High Consistency**: The average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days[27]. 4. **Trend Continuity**: The average 250-day new high distance over the past five days is used to select the top 50 stocks[27]. - **Model Evaluation**: This model emphasizes the importance of smooth momentum and consistent trends, which are often overlooked by investors, leading to stronger momentum effects[25][27]. --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 0.12% - Shenzhen Component Index: 3.19% - CSI 300: 3.55% - CSI 500: 0.53% - CSI 1000: 0.35% - CSI 2000: 0.23% - ChiNext Index: 8.48% - STAR 50 Index: 7.39%[12][32] 2. Stable New High Stock Screening Model - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including Borui Pharmaceutical, Shenghong Technology, and Huaguang Energy[28][33]. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 18 stocks - Cyclical: 13 stocks - Leading industries: Machinery in manufacturing and basic chemicals in cyclical sectors[28][33] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the relative position of a stock's closing price to its 250-day high, capturing momentum and trend-following characteristics[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The formula is the same as the 250-Day New High Distance Model: $ 250\ Day\ New\ High\ Distance = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ - $ Close_t $: Latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $: Maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor is effective in identifying stocks with strong upward momentum and market leadership potential[11][19]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the stability of a stock's price movement over time, favoring stocks with less volatile momentum[25]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Calculated as the ratio of price displacement to the total price movement over the past 120 days[25][27]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Smooth price paths are associated with stronger momentum effects due to reduced investor attention and reaction[25]. 3. Factor Name: New High Consistency - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the consistency of a stock's new highs over time, emphasizing sustained upward trends[27]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - **New High Consistency**: The average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days[27]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Consistent new highs indicate strong and sustained momentum, making this factor valuable for trend-following strategies[27]. --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 0.12% - Shenzhen Component Index: 3.19% - CSI 300: 3.55% - CSI 500: 0.53% - CSI 1000: 0.35% - CSI 2000: 0.23% - ChiNext Index: 8.48% - STAR 50 Index: 7.39%[12][32] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including Borui Pharmaceutical, Shenghong Technology, and Huaguang Energy[28][33]. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 18 stocks - Cyclical: 13 stocks - Leading industries: Machinery in manufacturing and basic chemicals in cyclical sectors[28][33] 3. New High Consistency Factor - **Selected Stocks**: Same as the Price Path Smoothness Factor, as this factor is part of the screening process for stable new high stocks[28][33].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the financing balance in the A-share market reached a ten-year high, with banks leading in valuation performance [1][3][54] - The overall market sentiment is characterized by an increase in the margin trading balance, while the turnover rate and transaction volume showed mixed results [2][19] - The report highlights that the PE valuation percentiles of major indices exhibited mixed changes, with the ChiNext index experiencing the largest decline [24][27] Group 2 - The report notes that the financial sector's PE valuation percentile increased by 2.1 percentage points, leading among various styles [35][41] - The oil and petrochemical sector saw the largest decline in PE valuation percentile, down by 6.2 percentage points, while the banking sector increased by 5.2 percentage points [53][54] - The report emphasizes that the current A-share market maintains a relatively high investment cost-effectiveness, with the stock-bond yield at -1.09% as of August 6, 2025 [13][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the schedule and topics for the 2025 research framework training organized by Guotai Junan Securities, emphasizing a comprehensive approach across various sectors and inviting participation from interested parties [19]. Group 1: Event Schedule - The training sessions are scheduled for August 18-19 and August 25-26, covering a range of topics from macroeconomic research to sector-specific studies [14][19]. - The first two days focus on total, consumption, and financial sectors, while the latter two days will delve into cyclical, pharmaceutical, technology, and manufacturing sectors [19]. Group 2: Research Topics - The training will include sessions on food and beverage research, retail and service research, textile and apparel research, internet applications, home appliances, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery research [15]. - Additional topics will cover macroeconomic research, strategy research, overseas strategy research, fixed income research, fund evaluation, financial engineering, small and medium-sized enterprises, and new stock research [15][16]. - The second week will feature non-metallic building materials, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, biological medicine, cultural communication, electronics, and various engineering and manufacturing studies [16][17].

Group 1 - As of August 8, pension funds have appeared among the top ten circulating shareholders of Rongzhi Rixin and Guomai Culture, holding 4 million shares and 2 million shares respectively, with market values of 155 million yuan and 79 million yuan [1] - In the second quarter, pension funds were present in the top ten circulating shareholders of six stocks, holding a total of 51.2281 million shares with a combined market value of 1.344 billion yuan [1] - Among the stocks held by pension funds, Hongfa Co., Jereh Group, and Dongmu Co. had the largest shareholdings, with 28 million shares, 7 million shares, and 6 million shares respectively [1] Group 2 - The industry distribution of pension fund holdings is primarily concentrated in Media III, Durable Household Products, and Machinery, with one stock in each category [1]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in "export grabbing" to the US and improvement in exports to emerging markets may be due to expectations of transshipment and recovery in domestic demand [3][10][62] Group 1: Export Trends - In July, exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 5.8% [2][9][62] - Exports to the US fell by 21.6%, a decline of 5.6 percentage points, while exports to Latin America and Africa rose significantly [3][10][62] - The export growth to emerging markets, such as Africa (+42.5%) and Latin America (+7.8%), indicates a shift in trade dynamics [3][10][62] Group 2: Factors Influencing Export Changes - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" to the US has declined, particularly in consumer electronics and toys, suggesting a reduction in demand from the US [3][18][62] - The announcement of a 40% tariff on transshipment goods by the US has led to increased demand from ASEAN and Latin American companies for imports from China [4][26][63] - The industrialization of emerging markets, particularly in Africa, has increased the demand for Chinese production materials, contributing to overall export growth [4][29][63] Group 3: Future Outlook - The implementation of the "reciprocal tariff 2.0" may create uncertainty for exports in August, as the necessity for "export grabbing" to emerging markets diminishes [5][32][64] - Despite the decline in port throughput, the high level of processing trade imports in July suggests that the drop in exports may be relatively controllable [5][32][64] Group 4: Import Trends - Imports increased by 4.1% year-on-year in July, driven by a recovery in bulk commodity imports [7][52][66] - Specific commodities such as copper (+18.0%), soybeans (+18.4%), and crude oil (+11.5%) showed significant increases, reflecting a rebound in domestic investment demand [7][53][66]

Export Performance - In July, China's export year-on-year growth rate recorded 7.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, but the month-on-month growth rate is below the median of the past five years[3] - The rebound in export growth is primarily due to a lower base from the same period last year, while the month-on-month growth rate remains below the five-year median[6] - Exports to the US have decreased, but support from European recovery and deepening cooperation with Latin America and Africa has bolstered exports[7] Import Performance - China's import year-on-year growth rate in July exceeded expectations at 4.1%, up 3 percentage points from the previous month, with month-on-month growth significantly above the five-year average[3] - The increase in imports is driven by continuous domestic production expansion and a notable drop in commodity prices from June, stimulating higher imports of energy and industrial raw materials[6] - Specific imports such as copper saw significant increases, with copper ore rising by 33.1% and unwrought copper by 11.3%[16] Economic Outlook - Despite a downward trend in export centrality, the contribution to economic growth is expected to remain stable, supported by European fiscal expansion and potential unexpected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[4] - Risks include potential underperformance in domestic economic recovery, unexpected declines in demand from developed countries, and uncertainties in import-export policies[23]

Core Viewpoint - The auction of 130 million shares of Daheng Technology by Zheng Suzhen, mother of the former private equity mogul Xu Xiang, attracted significant attention, with a total auction amount of 1.712 billion yuan, highlighting the involvement of various buyers, including a mysterious figure named Li Rongrong who became the largest circulating shareholder of the company [1][5][13]. Group 1: Auction Details - The auction involved eight buyers, with Li Rongrong acquiring 6.29% of the shares for 360 million yuan, making her the largest circulating shareholder [1][8]. - The total auction price reached 1.712 billion yuan, with the shares sold at an average price of 13.17 yuan per share [8]. - The remaining seven buyers included China New Era Limited and several individuals, with their respective share acquisitions detailed in the auction results [7][8]. Group 2: Buyer Profiles - Li Rongrong's background was initially reported as a mid-level manager at Ningbo Jinhai Logistics Service Co., but later sources indicated she was merely a contract worker, raising questions about the funding sources for her purchase [1][5]. - China New Era Limited, a former major shareholder of Daheng Technology, returned to acquire shares, indicating potential strategic interests in the company [13][17]. - Other individual buyers, such as Yang Runzhong and Hua Jinzhao, have backgrounds in electronics and machinery, suggesting a focus on industries relevant to Daheng Technology's operations [11][12]. Group 3: Company Background - Daheng Technology's main business includes machine vision and information technology, as well as optomechanical integration and digital broadcasting systems [12]. - The company has undergone significant ownership changes, with Zheng Suzhen previously acquiring a substantial stake from China New Era in 2014 [13][17]. - The recent auction and subsequent share transfers are expected to lead to changes in the company's control structure, as Zheng Suzhen no longer holds any shares [5][7].

当前，全球贸易环境正经历显著变化，其中中美关税博弈的升级成为影响中国经济的重要外部变量。自2024年底以来，美国对华关税持续上调，从最 初的20%逐步升至峰值，覆盖范围也从特定商品扩展到更广泛的领域，包括钢铁、铝、汽车及零部件等，甚至涉及半导体、医药等高科技产品。尽管 后续通过多轮谈判，关税水平有所回落，但整体仍处于高位，成为贸易领域的重要不确定性因素。 今天分享的是：2025年Q2中国经济与金融市场手册：结构性失衡与增长担忧 报告共计：137页 2025年Q2中国经济观察：关税博弈下的结构调整与增长韧性 2025年二季度，中国经济在复杂的内外环境中呈现出结构性调整与增长韧性并存的特点。从全球背景到国内政策，从贸易格局到产业转型，多重因素 交织塑造着经济运行的新态势。 全球关税博弈：贸易格局的重构与挑战 这种关税压力正在重塑中国的出口格局。数据显示，中国对美出口增速出现明显波动，但对东盟、拉美、非洲等新兴市场的出口占比持续提升，呈现 出"东方不亮西方亮"的多元化趋势。2025年二季度，对东盟出口占比已接近30%，较2018年提升约8个百分点，而对美出口占比则较峰值下降近10个百 分点。同时，出口产品结构也在调 ...

Economic Overview - The latest data indicates that the US economy is facing increasing risks of stagflation, with the services PMI almost stagnating and the manufacturing PMI dropping to a near one-year low, suggesting a complex situation of slowing economic activity and persistent inflation pressures [1][4] Services Sector - In July, the services PMI fell from 50.8 in June to 50.1, significantly below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating that the expansion pace of the services sector has nearly halted [2] - The services price index rose from 67.5 in June to 69.9 in July, approaching levels seen at the end of 2022, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures in the services sector due to tariffs and immigration policies [2] - The employment index decreased from 47.2 to 46.4, indicating a contraction in hiring levels and a weakening job market [2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI declined from 49 in June to 48 in July, falling short of the market expectation of 49.5, further exacerbating the contraction trend [3] - Although the output index showed an acceleration in expansion, the new orders index slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction zone, with employment contraction reaching a near one-year high [3] - The price index decreased from 69.7 to 64.8, indicating a slowdown in inflation pressure, yet it remains significantly above the post-pandemic average [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The PMI data reveals stagflation risks, presenting the Federal Reserve with a challenging policy decision in the third quarter, balancing a weakening job market against rising inflation due to tariffs [4] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates in September but could lower rates in October and December, with year-end policy rates projected to drop to 3.75%-4% [4] - The current economic conditions, characterized by slowing growth and a pressured job market alongside persistent inflation, complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [4]