继续看多黄金和 AI 产业链 20251010 摘要 万得全 A 指数 2025 年第四季度预计达 7,200 点，对应上证指数约 4,500 点，表明对 A 股市场持乐观态度，建议关注潜在的投资机会。 美国和日本 GDP 同比已进入下行周期，欧元区 GDP 高点出现在第三季 度。预测日元对美元将走弱，而欧元对美元的强势将减弱，以美元计价 的黄金将继续走强。 短期择时策略基于情绪指数，看多中证全指，对港股恒生指数持空仓观 点。行业轮动方面，看好机械、电力设备新能源、国防军工、商贸零售 和通信等行业在 10 月的相对收益。 从康波周期视角看，目前处于萧条期，但人工智能将引领下一轮复苏。 国内短周期方面，人口负面冲击主要集中在 2018 年至 2030 年，产能 利用率和库存周期均处于下行期，总需求不足导致 CPI 已降至零以下。 黄金价格与实际利率呈负相关关系，实际利率下降，ETF 及央行购金需 求增加，中长期内黄金仍具上涨潜力，建议逢低加仓。 白银作为工业金属，其驱动力更多来自工业需求而非简单修复金银比， 短期炒作可能过度，应谨慎投资。 A 股情绪指数显示，目前离牛市顶部尚有距离，可以考虑适当入场布局。 期权 ...

Domestic Macro Policy - The central government is focusing on the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing long-term strategic adjustments to macroeconomic policies rather than short-term gains[4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a new policy financial tool worth CNY 500 billion to support effective investment[5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is shifting its monetary policy focus from "implementation" to "execution," aiming for a moderately loose monetary policy[8] Infrastructure and Industry - Policies are being introduced to stabilize growth in key industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and machinery, with an emphasis on capacity reduction[6] - The steel industry aims for an average annual growth of around 4% in value added over the next two years[7] Real Estate Policy - Cities like Guangzhou and Wuhan are implementing measures to optimize land use and stimulate demand, including interest subsidies for home loans[9] - The focus is on utilizing existing urban land effectively as China enters a "stock era" in urban development[9] Trade Relations - The U.S.-China trade conflict is escalating, with the U.S. imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting November 1, 2025[12] - China has responded with export controls on rare earth technologies, affecting various critical sectors[11] Overseas Macro Policy - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown due to funding issues, impacting federal employees and public services[15] - The Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions remain uncertain, with discussions around potential rate cuts to address labor market concerns[16] Market Trends - In the first week of October, major overseas stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, experienced declines of approximately 2.43% and 2.53%, respectively[18] - Gold prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold reaching USD 3,986.20 per ounce, reflecting a 2.68% increase[19] Risk Factors - There is a risk of divergence in domestic and international monetary policies, with domestic policy execution potentially falling short of expectations[20]

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20251009-20251010） 本周指数普遍下跌 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数普遍下跌，其中沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，中证 500 下跌 0.19%，中证 1000 下跌 0.54%。 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 16.15%，相对于上周下跌了 1.54%。上证 500 的隐含波动率为 19.98%，相对于上周下跌了 5.13%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率 为 20.93%，相对于上周下跌了 4.16%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 16.61%，相 对于上周下跌了 1.67%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 9 月 19 日到 2025 年 9 月 25 日正 面信号共出现了 3059 次，未来高点平均胜率为 46.09%，负面信号出现 3051 次，未来低点平均胜率为 52.79%。 从宽基择时策略来看，创业板指、上证 50、中证 800、万得微盘股指数、中证 500、沪深 300、恒生金融类、恒生香港 35、恒生可持续发展企业指数、恒生 等权重、恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数出现看多信号，其余宽基信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is considering imposing tariffs of up to 100% on imports from China by November 1, escalating the trade conflict and creating uncertainty in global supply chains [1] Group 1: Impact on U.S. Companies - U.S. companies relying on Chinese manufacturing may face increased costs and shipment delays as they seek alternative suppliers in Mexico, India, or Southeast Asia [2] - Containerized imports from China, which account for approximately 40% of all U.S. inbound freight, could significantly decrease, leading to blank sailings and rate volatility [2] - Freight forwarders emphasize the need for shippers to adopt proactive strategies in response to the tariffs [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Strategies - Businesses are encouraged to build resilient supply chains by establishing sourcing hierarchies, leveraging dual sourcing, and exploring bonded warehouses or free trade zones [4] - The current trade landscape has accelerated discussions around these strategies among companies [4] Group 3: Trade Data - Year-to-date trade between the U.S. and China is approximately $420 billion to $440 billion, a decrease from over $465 billion during the same period in 2024 [5] - Major U.S. imports from China include electronics, machinery, furniture, and consumer goods, while top exports to China consist of agricultural products, aircraft, and semiconductors [5]

中色科技股份有限公司搭建的"有色金属加工工业互联网平台"填补了有色金属加工行业的空白，可实现 有色金属加工产线数据可视化等工业应用；研发的"铝板带冷粗轧智能化轧制关键技术及装备"成功突破 了复杂工业场景下轧制过程数据同步采集与处理的技术难题，实现了重大装备国产化自主可控，保障了 国家战略需要。 驼人控股集团有限公司作为河南省医疗器械产业链链主单位，致力于高性能医疗器械的研发、工艺研 究、智能装备设计等，将围绕"赋能医疗器械产业数字化转型，构建跨领域协同创新生态"建设数字化转 型促进中心，重点聚焦麻醉耗材、护理器械、介入设备、医用防护用品等细分领域，打造技术适配与转 化平台、人才培育与标准输出平台、跨域协同枢纽，整合产业上下游数据资源，引领医疗器械产业 向"数据驱动、生态共生、价值共创"的高质量发展转型。（记者 陈辉） 10月10日，记者从省工业和信息化厅获悉，工业和信息化部日前公布了首批62家制造业数字化转型促进 中心建设主体名单，国机工业互联网研究院（河南）有限公司（机械行业）、河南嘉晨智能控制股份有 限公司（电子信息制造业、机械行业、汽车行业）、驼人控股集团有限公司（医药行业）、中色科技股 份有限公司（有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by two national departments in China regarding nine key industries is seen as a roadmap for stable growth, indicating a clear direction for investment opportunities in the coming years [2][4][6]. Group 1: Policy and Industry Direction - The nine industries are part of a long-term strategy, marking the transition from the 14th Five-Year Plan to the 15th, outlining where resources should be allocated in the next five years [6][7]. - China's policy continuity is emphasized as a significant certainty, contrasting with other markets where policies frequently change [7][9]. - The focus is on long-term logic rather than short-term numerical fluctuations, with funding expected to follow established policy directions [9]. Group 2: Key Themes in the Nine Industries - The first theme is "high-quality development," which prioritizes stability over rapid growth in certain sectors, such as construction materials and light industry, to protect supply chains and employment [11][13]. - The second theme is "domestic discourse power," promoting self-sufficiency in technology, particularly in AI servers, allowing for a 20% price premium for domestic products [13][15]. - The third theme is "green transformation," which aims to upgrade industries through low-carbon processes, emphasizing environmental standards as a competitive advantage [15][17]. - The fourth theme is "anti-involution," which seeks to control new capacity in industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries, shifting the focus from scale to technology [17]. Group 3: Structural Opportunities in Specific Industries - The electronic information manufacturing sector is highlighted as a key beneficiary, with a projected growth rate of 7% and a target for AI server industry scale exceeding 400 billion [19][21]. - The automotive industry is transitioning to a focus on new energy and smart technologies, with a projected 20% growth in electric vehicles, indicating a shift from price competition to technological advancement [21][22]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is encouraged to focus on high-value-added products rather than raw material extraction, signaling a shift towards processing and innovation [24][26]. Group 4: Investment Logic for the Future - The investment logic for the next five years emphasizes policy benefits, industry characteristics, and technological capabilities rather than chasing new concepts or hot trends [26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the construction industry is showing signs of recovery, with the business activity index rising to 49.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - New orders and business activity expectation indices have improved by 1.6 and 0.7 percentage points respectively, indicating a synchronized improvement in the sector [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has announced a total of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools aimed at supplementing project capital, with funds being rapidly allocated to specific projects [1] Group 2 - The construction industry is expected to see a rebound in prosperity due to the accelerated implementation of key construction projects and special bond funds [1] - The manufacturing PMI production index has reached its highest level since April 2025, with external demand improving more than internal demand, which may indirectly support the construction and decoration industries [1] - The Infrastructure ETF (159619) tracks the CSI Infrastructure Index (930608), which selects listed companies involved in the construction and machinery sectors to reflect the overall performance of the infrastructure construction field in China [1] Group 3 - The CSI Infrastructure Index has a high industry concentration, clearly reflecting the "infrastructure" theme, with constituent stocks primarily consisting of leading enterprises in the industry [1] - The index has a high state-owned enterprise characteristic, relatively low valuation levels, and good liquidity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has announced the 2025 Green Factory Recommendation Work, focusing on energy conservation and carbon reduction to enhance the green competitiveness of industries, supporting enterprises in 53 key sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The recommendation work includes green factories and green industrial parks, with enterprises or parks meeting the requirements voluntarily conducting self-evaluations based on new evaluation criteria [2][4]. - Provincial industrial and information departments will select enterprises or parks based on the principle of "choosing the best among the best" and ensuring that recommended entities meet or exceed the average level of existing national green factories and parks in their regions [2][4]. Group 2: Specific Requirements - New applicants for national green factories and industrial parks must register on the management platform, complete self-evaluations, and provide supporting materials without needing third-party evaluation reports [3][4]. - Existing national green factories and parks must also log onto the management platform for self-evaluation against new criteria, with those scoring in the bottom 5% for three consecutive years being removed from the list [5][6]. Group 3: Work Requirements - Provincial departments are required to enhance the verification of data and supporting materials for enterprises or parks to ensure the quality of recommendations, with a deadline for submission set for November 7, 2025 [6]. - Experts from MIIT will review the recommended lists, ensuring a rigorous selection process, and any entity found to have falsified data will be removed from the list and barred from reapplying for three years [6]. Group 4: Key Industry List - The key industries supported in this initiative include steel, petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, building materials, machinery, light industry, textiles, and electronics [12].

Core Viewpoint - The market is showing strong structural characteristics, with a focus on growth sectors, and the trend of manufacturing upgrades is expected to create structural investment opportunities in the medium to long term [2][10]. Industry Performance Summary 1) Energy and Basic Materials - Non-ferrous metals continue to rise, while other cyclical products show mixed price performance. In September, the prices of thermal coal, cement index, and glass index increased by 1.3%, 0.6%, and 2.4% respectively, while prices for coking coal, coke, rebar, iron ore, and chemical indices fell by 2.2%, 1.2%, 2.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3% respectively [3]. - The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut in September aligns with market expectations, leading to a rapid increase in gold prices, while industrial metals and some minor metals (cobalt, tungsten) also saw price increases [3]. 2) Industrial Products - The energy transition supports demand for electrical equipment, and policies aimed at reducing competition are catalyzing price rebounds across various segments of the photovoltaic industry. In August, excavator domestic sales grew by 22% year-on-year, and exports increased by 13% [4]. - The new energy sector is experiencing significant growth, with wind and solar installations increasing by 72% and 65% year-on-year respectively [4]. 3) Consumer Products - The growth rate of home appliance sales has slowed, with sales of washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners all showing a 1% year-on-year increase in August. The textile and apparel sectors are also facing challenges in both domestic and overseas demand [5]. - The average daily room rate (ADR), occupancy rate (OCC), and revenue per available room (RevPAR) in the hotel sector all saw year-on-year declines of 0.6%, 1.5%, and 2.1% respectively [5]. 4) Technology - The strong demand for AI computing power continues to be validated, driving growth in sub-sectors such as optical modules, switches, and servers. In July, major cloud service providers adjusted their 2025 capital expenditure guidance upwards [6]. - The semiconductor industry remains robust, with global semiconductor sales increasing by 20.6% year-on-year in July, and China's semiconductor sales growing by 10.4% [6]. 5) Financials - The insurance sector saw a 9.6% year-on-year increase in premium income in August, while the total assets of insurance companies grew by approximately 17.5% year-on-year [7]. - The real estate sector remains at a low point, with a 0.5% year-on-year decline in property sales area in September, despite a slight month-on-month increase [7]. 6) Recommendations - Focus on AI computing and robotics-related industries, which are expected to remain attractive until a significant change in industry conditions occurs [8]. - Consider sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, batteries, and non-ferrous metals, which are still in a favorable supply-demand cycle [8]. - Monitor the "14th Five-Year Plan" related fields, especially as the upcoming meeting in October may provide insights into policy directions [8].

（原标题：韩出口过度依赖半导体） 然而，剔除半导体后，韩国出口疲软态势明显。今年前8个月整体出口额为4538.27亿美元，同比微 增0.87%，但化工品、汽车零部件、机械、钢铁等主要品类均出现下滑，半导体之外的出口额为3495.33 亿美元，同比下降2.8%。今年7月和8月整体出口虽小幅增长，但非半导体出口分别下降0.3%和5.5%。 专家警告称，过度依赖半导体将加剧韩国贸易的脆弱性，因其高度周期性可能导致出口大幅波动。韩国 贸易协会指出，2024年韩国出口品类集中度指数高达520，远超日本（389）、中国（129）、法国 （118）等，显示出严重依赖少数品类和市场，需推动出口多元化及新兴产业发展以分散风险。 韩国《每日经济》9月24日报道，韩关税厅当日公布数据显示，今年1至8月半导体出口额达1042.09 亿美元，同比增加15.7%，占整体出口比重升至23%，较2023年的21%和2022年的15.9%进一步提高。受 惠于D-RAM、NAND价格上涨及AI相关高带宽存储器需求扩大，半导体呈现"独自繁荣"态势。 ...