Core Viewpoint - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has shown significant stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 31.93% and a recent 5-day increase of 11.95% [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shenhuo Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 20.428 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.12% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.904 billion yuan, which reflects a year-on-year decrease of 16.62% [2] Shareholder Information - As of September 20, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shenhuo Co., Ltd. was 71,100, an increase of 0.42% from the previous period [2] - The average circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 0.42% to 31,612 shares [2] Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has distributed a total of 9.422 billion yuan in dividends, with 5.843 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fifth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 39.055 million shares, a decrease of 19.7381 million shares from the previous period [3] - Southern CSI 500 ETF was the sixth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 23.3743 million shares as a new shareholder [3]

Report Overview - Report Date: October 9, 2025 - Report Type: Daily Morning Observation of Non - ferrous and Precious Metals - Report Sector: Non - ferrous metals and precious metals 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical reasoning, and provides trading strategies for various non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Overall, the precious metals market is in an upward trend, while different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and challenges, such as supply shortages, demand fluctuations, and policy impacts [2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Metal Type Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold broke through the $4000/oz mark, closing up 1.4% at $4040.745/oz; London silver rose 2.36% to $48.88/oz. The US dollar index rose 0.15% to 98.767, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield weakened to 4.11% [2]. - **Important Information**: The US Senate rejected the bipartisan appropriation bill, the Fed is divided on interest rate cuts, and the probability of interest rate cuts is high. Trump announced a peace plan between Israel and Hamas [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Uncertainties such as the US government shutdown, global political turmoil, and China's increase in gold reserves have increased investors' demand for gold as a hedge, pushing up gold prices. Silver prices have also risen due to expectations of interest rate cuts [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for opportunities to go long on the dips for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage; take profit on out - of - the - money call options and collar call options bought before the holiday [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper closed at $10701/ton, down 0.23%. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 139,200 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1947 tons to 335,500 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown continued, QB mine cut copper production guidance, Aurubis raised the price of refined copper, and Australia provided financial support to copper smelters [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Copper mine supply is tight, and the transfer from the mine end to the smelting end may be faster. Consumption is weak, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - sided trading; hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decreases; wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell to 2868 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed a narrow - range decline [10][11]. - **Important Information**: Overseas alumina was traded at different prices, Inalum planned to expand production, and the supply of alumina was estimated to be in surplus in September [11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Alumina supply is in an excess pattern, and prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillating pattern before large - scale production cuts [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina to maintain a weak trend for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20160 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [16]. - **Important Information**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and most aluminum die - casting enterprises extended their holidays [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for raw material inventory in recycled aluminum plants is restricted, and the holiday of downstream die - casting enterprises is extended. The spot price is expected to be firm, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of cash - and - carry arbitrage [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the aluminum alloy futures price to open higher and then weaken slightly for single - sided trading; pay attention to cash - and - carry arbitrage if the futures price opens higher; wait and see for options [17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The SHFE aluminum 2511 contract fell to 20680 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum price rose 3.22% during the holiday. The spot price increased [20]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown and the Fed's internal differences in interest rate cuts. The domestic aluminum rod production capacity expanded, and some enterprises increased production during the holiday [20][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Affected by interest rate cut expectations and the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector, the LME aluminum price rose during the holiday. The domestic demand is slowly recovering, and there may be short - term inventory accumulation after the holiday [21][22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing high prices and wait and see for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [23]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc price fell 1.53% to $2995/ton, and the spot price was stable. The LME zinc inventory decreased [25][26]. - **Important Information**: Kipushi mine increased production, Golden Grove mine postponed high - grade zinc ore mining, and the LME zinc inventory decreased [25][26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The non - ferrous metal sector was strong during the holiday, and the LME zinc inventory decreased to a two - year low. The domestic market is in surplus, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic is expected to continue [26][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the SHFE zinc price to be strong in the short term and go short on the high for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [28]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead price fell 0.02% to $2005.5/ton, and the spot price was stable. The LME lead inventory was high [30]. - **Important Information**: A lead - zinc mine in Fujian postponed production [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for lead concentrate is large, and the supply is in a tight balance. The primary lead smelter is in a small loss, and the secondary lead smelter may increase production. The consumption season is not as expected [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the lead price to fall; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [33]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel price fell to $15390/ton, and the inventory increased. The spot premium decreased [34]. - **Important Information**: Global nickel demand and production are expected to increase in 2026, and Indonesia adjusted the RKAB approval system [34][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global primary nickel supply is expected to be in excess, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for options [37]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel SS2511 contract closed at 12730 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [39]. - **Important Information**: The EU tightened steel import policies, and a South Korean buyer cancelled an order from a Taiwanese supplier [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand for stainless steel is differentiated, and the supply is high. Without production - capacity reduction policies, the trend is weak [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a weak oscillation for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage [42]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures price fell before the holiday, and the spot price was at a premium [44][45]. - **Important Information**: Industrial silicon exports increased in August, and imports decreased [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: The output increased, and the demand was strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy on the dips [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on the dips for single - sided trading; buy out - of - the - money put options for options; no strategy for arbitrage [46]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures price oscillated narrowly before the holiday, and the spot price was stable [48]. - **Important Information**: India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese polysilicon products [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase in October, demand is weakening, and there may be a callback in November. It is recommended to buy on the dips after the callback [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on the dips after a full callback for single - sided trading; conduct reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts for arbitrage; buy deep out - of - the - money call and put options for options [49]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract closed at 72800 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [52]. - **Important Information**: Chile's lithium exports increased in September, the US terminated energy projects, and a Chinese research team made a breakthrough in solid - state lithium batteries [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are tight in October and may return to balance in November. October may be a turning point [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a wide - range oscillation for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The LME tin price fell to $36250/ton, and the spot price rose. The LME tin inventory increased [57][58]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown continued, and the global AI infrastructure expenditure is expected to reach $2 trillion in 2026 [57][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a short - term weak oscillation and pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar for single - sided trading; wait and see for options [58][61].

神火股份10月9日公告，公司于2024年12月30日召开董事会第九届十四次会议审议通过了《关于回购公 司股份方案的议案》，同意公司使用自有资金通过集中竞价交易方式回购部分股份用于股权激励计划， 回购总金额不低于2.5亿元（含）且不超过4.5亿元（含），回购价格不超过20元/股（含），实施期限为 自董事会审议通过本次回购方案之日起12个月内。截至2025年9月30日，公司累计回购1542.04万股，占 公司总股本的0.69%，回购价格区间为15.93元/股至17元/股，累计使用资金2.55亿元（不含交易费 用）。 ...

Group 1 - Changyuan Power reported a power generation of 2.742 billion kWh in September, a year-on-year decrease of 41.88% [1] - The cumulative power generation from January to September was 27.332 billion kWh, down 8.24% year-on-year [1] - Huanyu Electronics achieved a consolidated revenue of 5.96 billion yuan in September, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1][2] Group 2 - Zhonghuan Environmental announced a change in controlling shareholder, with 27.5% of shares being transferred for a total consideration of 598 million yuan [2] - *ST Songfa's subsidiary signed contracts for the construction of 6 VLCCs, with a total contract value of approximately 600-900 million USD [1][3] - Suzhou Xinchen Technology's subsidiary plans to acquire 55% of Kunyu Lancheng for 74.25 million yuan [3] Group 3 - Guiguan Power reported a cumulative power generation of 31.848 billion kWh for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 14.89% [4] - Jincheng Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received approval for the market launch of a raw material drug [4] - Shandong Steel expects a net profit of approximately 140 million yuan for the first three quarters, an increase of about 21.96 million yuan year-on-year [4][5] Group 4 - Xiangjia Co. reported sales revenue of 96.6186 million yuan from live poultry in September, with a sales price of 12.10 yuan/kg [6] - Aonong Bio's pig sales volume in September increased by 12.2% year-on-year, with a total of 164,400 pigs sold [7] - Mingtai Aluminum's aluminum plate and foil sales reached 1.1747 million tons in the first three quarters [8] Group 5 - Guangzhou Port expects to complete a container throughput of 2.051 million TEUs in September, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% [11] - Jiangsu Sop plans to conduct a month-long maintenance on several production units starting October 10 [12] - Baike Bio received approval for a clinical trial of a combined vaccine for infants [13] Group 6 - Yutong Bus reported a 25.55% year-on-year increase in bus sales in September, totaling 4,756 units [16] - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank's vice chairman and president's qualifications were approved [19] - Huayu Pharmaceutical's product received market approval in four countries [20] Group 7 - Longan Automobile reported a 24.92% year-on-year increase in vehicle sales in September, totaling 266,300 units [38] - Chip Origin expects a third-quarter revenue of 1.284 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.77% [39] - Bomaike signed a contract for an offshore floating production storage and offloading vessel project, with a contract value of approximately 190-240 million USD [40]

十一假期期间，国际现货黄金突破每盎司4000美元关口，甚至一度攀升至每盎司4039.14美元，创历史新高。 受此影响，国内品牌金饰克价突破1150元，本周四，A股市场上以黄金挂钩的ETF也大幅上涨。有色金属 ETF(159871)大涨8.73%。 黄金、股市真的涨疯了！ 为什么有色金属 ETF(159871)大涨？ 有色金属一般被分为贵金属、工业金属、稀有金属和半金属等。有色金属 ETF(159871)跟踪的中证有色指数的主要权重板块为铜、黄金、铝、稀土、锂， 这五大子板块在指数中合计占比近75%。 黄金前面已经介绍过了，在这里不再重复。我们来说说稀土，周四稀土板块也大幅上涨，商务部公告，对稀土相关技术和境外相关稀土物项实施出口管 制。这个事影响不小，将是稀土领域的里程碑事件，市场对稀土涨价的预期非常积极，未来的稀土行业有望出现质更优、价更高的状态。 为什么金价会大涨？ 这与美国政府"停摆"有关。美国政府"停摆"至今还没恢复，威胁到了美元地位，黄金作为美元重要替代物再次受到重视，推动金价走高。 另一个是美联储今年预计还会降息两次。过往中，只要是美联储处在降息周期，金价90%的概率会上升。所以买黄金其实就是看好 ...

十一假期前后国际油价总体回落，本周处于OPEC+最终未如预期般大幅增产后的反弹修复期，隔夜 布伦特12合约涨0.53%。EIA报告显示上周美国原油库存超预期增加371.5万桶，但近四周成品油表 需同比增1.7%相对强劲对油价构成支撑。尽管俄乌地缘抗动仍存，但供需宽松压力仍是后续市场的 交易主题,我们此前提出的SC高位空单与虚值看涨期权相结合的策略可在开盘后择机阶段性止盈。 【责金属】 国庆期间贵金属延续强势，国际金价突破四千美元关口。美国政府部门停摆,非农等数据暂停发 布,市场避险情绪延续。黄金长期上行逻辑未改，但随着今日特朗普宣布以哈签署第一阶段和平协 议,短期四千美元目标达成后需警惕资金获利了结,高位保持谨慎。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 【铜】 伦铜节中涨幅超过3%，继续消化节前Grasberg铜矿不可抗力对今明两年平衡表造成的供应损失影 响。同时8月智利铜产量单月同比降幅创两年来最大，反映了旗舰矿山El Teniente前期事故的产出 拖累。隔夜泰克资源智利主力矿山也调降了明后两年产出增量预期。海外投行调升长期铜价预期, 高盛看法相对谨慎。 ICSG已修正铜精矿 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the metals market, particularly focusing on rare earths, precious metals, copper, aluminum, tin, and cobalt, indicating a bullish trend across these sectors [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Precious Metals - Gold prices have surpassed $4,000 per ounce, with a 3.6% increase during the holiday period, while silver rose by 2.5% [7][8]. - The rise in precious metals is attributed to the U.S. government shutdown, which has heightened risk aversion and concerns over the dollar's credibility [8][9][10]. Copper Market - Copper prices have increased by over 3%, nearing the 2024 LME high of $11,100 per ton, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints from major mines [3][11]. - The Grasberg copper mine's shutdown has significantly reduced supply, with expectations for domestic copper prices to exceed 90,000 yuan per ton [11]. Aluminum Sector - Electrolytic aluminum prices have risen by approximately 2%, supported by strong fundamentals, including a decrease in social inventory and robust downstream demand [3][12][15]. - The industry is expected to maintain high profit levels due to a slight decrease in costs and strong demand [16][17]. Tin Market - The tin market is experiencing supply issues due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, potentially affecting 5% of global tin concentrate supply [5]. - Despite short-term price fluctuations, the long-term outlook for tin prices is optimistic, with potential highs of 350,000 yuan per ton next year [5]. Cobalt Market - Following the Democratic Republic of Congo's quota implementation, cobalt prices have surged, with future prices expected to reach around 400,000 yuan per ton [6]. - The market anticipates a long-term supply gap if quotas remain at 90,000 to 100,000 tons, suggesting a bullish outlook for cobalt prices [6]. Rare Earth Market - The rare earth market is expected to see a price increase in October, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle and wind power sectors, alongside supply disruptions from private enterprises [4]. - Current prices for neodymium oxide are around 560,000 to 580,000 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to focus on companies like China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and Shenghe Resources [4]. Other Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the metals market is bullish, with expectations for continued price increases across various sectors due to strong demand and supply constraints [2][3][4][5][6]. - The impact of macroeconomic factors, such as the U.S. government shutdown and employment data, is significant in shaping market expectations and price movements [8][10][11].

Group 1 - The new demands from the U.S. government may undermine a recently reached trade agreement with the EU, which had previously eased tensions between the allies [1] - The U.S. has proposed a new trade proposal aimed at achieving "reciprocal, fair, and balanced" trade, but EU officials view these demands as excessive [1] - The U.S. is seeking discussions on EU legislation, including digital and technology rules, while the EU insists on maintaining regulatory autonomy [1] Group 2 - In return for concessions, the EU has submitted legislation to lower tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and some non-sensitive agricultural products, pending approval from the European Parliament [2] - Discussions regarding the reduction of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum have made little progress, with the EU planning to impose tariffs on foreign steel imports exceeding certain quotas [2] - Concerns have been raised that the U.S. is expanding the list of products subject to the 50% tariff, potentially affecting medical devices and technology, which could weaken the EU's hard-won 15% tariff cap [2]

Trade Relations - The meeting between President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney focused on trade issues, with Trump announcing plans to impose tariffs on Canada, which he believes Canada will accept willingly [1][2] - The trade relationship between the U.S. and Canada, valued at $900 billion, is under significant strain due to ongoing tariff disputes [3] - Canada’s exports to the U.S. have dropped to their lowest level since 2021, while imports have returned to 2022 levels, indicating a decline in trade activity [4] Tariffs and Economic Impact - U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles, and lumber are severely impacting key Canadian industries, leading to job losses and a slowdown in business investment [4] - Trump increased tariffs on non-compliant goods under the USMCA from 25% to 35%, exacerbating the trade conflict [4] - Carney's government has attempted to ease tensions by canceling most retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, focusing only on sectors still affected by U.S. tariffs [4] Future Agreements and Cooperation - Carney aims to negotiate a short-term agreement to lower or eliminate certain industry tariffs, with a focus on collaboration in various sectors [4] - The Canadian government is also preparing for the 2026 review of the North American Free Trade Agreement, indicating a long-term strategy for trade relations [4] - In response to U.S. criticisms regarding defense spending, Canada has committed to reaching NATO's defense spending target of 2% of GDP this year, with plans to increase it to 5% by 2035 [5]

特朗普在会谈中形容两国"天然存在竞争"，因为双方都希望在制造业领域占据优势。"他想造汽车，我 们也想造汽车，我们在竞争。而我们的优势在于拥有一个庞大的国内市场。"不过，特朗普也表示双方 在谈判中"已经取得显著进展"，称"我们正在研究各种方案，我认为我们终将达成协议"。 加拿大负责对美贸易事务的部长Dominic LeBlanc当天在记者会上指出，本次会谈"比以往更具实质 性"。他透露，两国领导人已指示官员在钢铁、铝和能源等关键领域"尽快敲定协议"，并以此为契机推 动更广泛的关税谈判，但LeBlanc拒绝就谈判时间给出具体期限。 这次访问是卡尼自今年初出任总理以来第二次造访白宫。目前，美加两国间的贸易往来规模高达9,000 亿美元。曾任加拿大央行行长的卡尼在4月竞选中承诺，将重新谈判一项覆盖贸易与安全的双边协议。 然而自他上任以来，特朗普反而提高了对加拿大商品的关税。 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普周二在白宫椭圆形办公室会见加拿大总理卡尼时表示，美国与加拿 大"最终能够达成贸易协议"，但未透露具体的达成时间表或谈判路径。 尽管特朗普在会晤中称赞卡尼是"一位世界级领袖"，美国官员依然暗示不会在关键产业上做出太 ...