证券研究报告|专题报告 有色金属 行业评级 强大于市 2026年1月5日 供给有约束需求有韧性，铝价中枢或上移 ——铝行业专题报告 证券分析师： 王保庆 执业证书编号：S0210522090001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 Ø 供需：供给有约束，需求有韧性。供给端国内面临产能天花板强约束，海外供应受制于能源供应瓶颈，需求端传统板块趋稳 ，新兴领域强劲，储能、机器人及智能制造等新兴领域对铝材的需求快速扩张，电解铝供需紧平衡格局加剧； Ø 宏观：美联储降息预期仍在，宏观经济压制减轻。美联储9月正式开启降息周期，美国26年面临中期选举和美联储主席人事 更替，关注宽货币+宽财政组合可能； Ø 库存：全球电解铝库存处于历史同期低位。截至2025年12月31日，全球电解铝库存145万吨； Ø 总结：紧平衡格局延续，铝价中枢或上移。短期，供需面对铝价底部有支撑，降息预期下预计铝价偏强；中长期，国内天花 板+能源不足持续扰动，同时新能源需求仍保持旺盛，紧平衡或致铝价中枢上移。 Ø 个股：关注天山、宏创、云铝、神火、华通、宏桥及中孚等标的。 Ø 风险提示：美联储降息不及 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand, suggesting light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and off - season demand, with aluminum prices maintaining high - level oscillations due to positive macro expectations. It is recommended to go short - term long at low prices with a light position [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of converging supply and weakening demand, and light - position oscillatory trading is suggested [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 23,645 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,770 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,021 US dollars/ton, up 24 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 509,250 tons, down 2,500 tons [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,520 yuan/ton, up 665 yuan; the registered warehouse receipts of the cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 69,620 tons, up 32 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 23,310 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - Ferrous was 2,610 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,100 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 22,520 yuan/ton, up 820 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina production in the current month was 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) in the current month was 705.96 million tons, down 24.27 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 17,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 17,050 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum was 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum was 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons [2]. - The production of aluminum products was 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 57.00 million tons, up 7.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 3.06 million tons, down 0.03 million tons [2]. - The automobile production was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24.00 million vehicles; the national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum for 20 days was 17.05%, up 3.38%; the historical volatility for 40 days was 13.95%, up 1.88% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21.6%, up 0.0295; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.69, down 0.1008 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI were 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.9, 0.7, and 1.0 percentage points month - on - month [2]. - In 2025, the sales volume of trade - in related commodities nationwide exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting more than 360 million people [2]. - The final value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 48.8, with the expected and previous values both being 49.2 [2]. - Multiple car companies announced their December 2025 and full - year results. BYD's new - energy vehicle sales in December 2025 were 420,398 units, a year - on - year decline of about 18.2%; the full - year cumulative sales were 4,602,436 units, a year - on - year increase of 7.73% [2].

Core Insights - The report highlights Nanshan Aluminum (600219) as a rare growth target in the electrolytic aluminum sector, emphasizing its dividend and buyback strategies as indicators of confidence in future performance [2][9][11] - The report also covers Hanhigh Group (001221), which is positioned as a high-growth company focusing on cost reduction and brand strength to create high-end cost-performance products [10][12] Nanshan Aluminum (600219) Summary - Expected net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected at 5.0 billion, 5.46 billion, and 5.84 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 11, and 10 times [3][11] - The company is anticipated to benefit from the expansion of alumina production in Indonesia, which will enhance its performance due to cost advantages [11] - The report assigns a target P/E of 13 times for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 15% from the current price [3][11] - The company has a production capacity of 680,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, with expectations for aluminum prices to rise in 2026 due to a slowdown in global supply growth [11] Hanhigh Group (001221) Summary - Revenue projections for Hanhigh Group are set at 3.595 billion, 4.525 billion, and 5.653 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with net profits of 706 million, 942 million, and 1.237 billion yuan respectively [10][14] - The company is expected to maintain a lower valuation compared to its peers, with P/E ratios of 33, 24, and 19 times for the respective years [10][14] - Hanhigh Group's growth is driven by cost reduction strategies and a focus on high-quality, high-performance products, which have gained market recognition [12][14] Investment Recommendations - Both Nanshan Aluminum and Hanhigh Group are given "Outperform" ratings, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance relative to the market [3][10] - The report suggests that Nanshan Aluminum's unique position in the electrolytic aluminum market and Hanhigh Group's strong growth trajectory make them attractive investment opportunities [2][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the growth in China's aluminum alloy production, with a reported output of 1.74 million tons in November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17% [1] - Cumulative aluminum alloy production from January to November 2025 reached 17.456 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 15.8% [1] - The articles reference a strategic analysis report by Zhiyan Consulting, which outlines the market operation pattern and prospects of the aluminum alloy industry in China from 2026 to 2032 [1] Group 2 - The data source for the production statistics is the National Bureau of Statistics, with the information compiled by Zhiyan Consulting [2] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [2] - The firm emphasizes its commitment to providing comprehensive industry solutions to empower investment decisions through professional insights and market intelligence [2]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to show strong performance, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) reaching new highs and attracting significant capital inflows, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 5, 2026, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF saw an intraday increase of 2.31%, currently up 1.81%, marking a new high since its listing [1]. - The ETF has received a net subscription of 7.8 million units, with a net inflow of 78.89 million yuan over the past five trading days, reflecting strong investor confidence in the sector's future performance [1]. Group 2: Key Stocks Performance - Among the constituent stocks, Zhongfu Industrial led with an increase of over 8%, followed by Hunan Silver and China Aluminum, both rising over 7% [3]. - Other notable performers include Shenhuo Co., West Superconducting, and Tianshan Aluminum, all showing gains of over 4% [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. military actions in Venezuela, have intensified the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, reinforcing the bullish trend in precious metals [3]. - In the copper market, a strike at the Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile has exacerbated supply issues, contributing to a projected global copper market deficit of over 100,000 tons in 2026 [4]. - The aluminum market is also facing supply challenges, with LME aluminum prices surpassing $3,000, driven by concerns over the stability of electrolytic aluminum supply [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict a continued bullish trend in the non-ferrous metal sector, driven by global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, and improved macroeconomic expectations [5]. - The consensus among institutions is that the non-ferrous metal sector is likely to experience a bull market in 2026, supported by synchronized upward movements in monetary policy, demand, and supply [5].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to exhibit a "bull market" trend, with significant inflows into the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF, reflecting investor confidence in future performance [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 5, 2026, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) saw an intraday increase of 2.31%, currently up 1.81%, reaching a new high since its listing [1][9]. - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has received a net subscription of 7.8 million units, with a net inflow of 78.89 million yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong market interest [1][9]. Group 2: Gold Market Insights - The geopolitical tensions following the U.S. military action against Venezuela are expected to drive safe-haven investments in gold, reinforcing the bullish trend in precious metals [1][14]. - Venezuela's gold resource potential is estimated at 3,500 tons, with a projected production of 31 tons in 2024, positioning it in the mid-range of global gold production [1][14]. Group 3: Copper Market Dynamics - A strike at the Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile has disrupted supply, contributing to upward pressure on copper prices [2][15]. - The global copper market is projected to face a shortfall of over 100,000 tons in 2026, exacerbated by ongoing U.S. copper tariffs and a price premium of $100 per ton for COMEX copper over LME copper [2][15]. Group 4: Aluminum Market Developments - LME aluminum prices have surged past $3,000, marking the highest level since 2022, driven by concerns over supply stability due to the indefinite shutdown of the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique [5][16]. - Global demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase by 150,000 to 187,000 tons in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 2% to 2.5%, while supply remains tight due to potential power shortages [5][16]. Group 5: Industry Outlook - The non-ferrous metal sector is anticipated to benefit from a confluence of factors including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, and improved macroeconomic expectations, leading to a sustained bullish trend [5][17]. - Analysts from Zhongjin Company and Zhongtai Securities express optimism for a comprehensive bull market in the non-ferrous sector in 2026, driven by synchronized growth in monetary policy, demand, and supply [5][17]. Group 6: Investment Strategy - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its associated funds provide broad coverage across various non-ferrous metals, allowing for risk diversification compared to investing in single metal sectors [6][18].

Group 1: Macro Environment - The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's shift from a hawkish to a dovish stance, with internal disagreements among officials regarding interest rate cuts [3][19] - The People's Bank of China has committed to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy and increasing counter-cyclical adjustments [3][19] Group 2: Copper Market Fundamentals - Domestic TC quotes for copper concentrate remain at historically low levels, indicating persistent tightness in supply [4][20] - January's estimated electrolytic copper production is 1.1636 million tons, a 1.2% month-on-month decrease but a 14.7% year-on-year increase [4][20] - November's net imports of refined copper fell by 58.16% year-on-year to 161,700 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 5.87% month-on-month [4][20] - Global visible copper inventories rose by 126,000 tons to 924,000 tons by December 31 [4][20] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Price Outlook - Despite weak fundamentals and high inventory expectations, market sentiment remains optimistic due to expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve and strong performance in precious metals [5][21] - The copper price has reached new historical highs, but there is a significant divergence between weak fundamentals and optimistic market sentiment, leading to potential volatility [6][21] - The premium of U.S. copper over LME copper is losing arbitrage opportunities, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][21] Group 4: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Indonesian nickel ore premiums remain stable at $25.5 per wet ton, while Philippine nickel ore premiums have increased to $9.0 per wet ton [7][22] - January's refined nickel production is expected to rise by 35.8% month-on-month to 37,200 tons [7][22] - The stainless steel market shows a total inventory of 977,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.78% [8][23] Group 5: Aluminum Market - December aluminum prices showed a month-on-month increase, with aluminum oxide futures rising by 2.6% and electrolytic aluminum by 6.1% [9][25] - The average operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises decreased to 61.5% in December, indicating a seasonal slowdown [10][26] - Social inventories of aluminum ingots increased by 64,000 tons to 660,000 tons in December [11][26] Group 6: Silicon and Polysilicon - December industrial silicon futures decreased by 2.96%, while polysilicon futures increased by 2.65% [12][27] - Industrial silicon production is expected to decline by 3.2% month-on-month, while polysilicon production is projected to decrease by 3.5% [12][27] - The overall inventory of industrial silicon increased by 17,200 tons to 50,000 tons in December [13][28] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons, with a projected month-on-month decrease of 1.2% in January [14][29] - Demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline in January, with a forecasted decrease in production [14][29] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons, indicating a slowing down of the destocking process [15][29]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the commodities market outlook for 2026, specifically highlighting precious metals and industrial metals, with a bullish stance on gold and copper prices [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Price Forecast**: The target price for gold is set at $5,000 for 2026, with projections of $6,000 for 2027 and 2028. This represents a significant increase from the $1,700 price point when the bullish rating was issued in November 2022. Key drivers include central bank purchases, expectations of interest rate cuts, concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability, and persistent inflation [2][3]. - **Impact on India**: As a major importer of gold, high prices will likely widen India's current account deficit. The government may respond by increasing import duties to curb inflows, which could also affect demand for wedding jewelry. However, high gold prices may enhance its role as a savings tool, increasing household wealth [2][3]. - **Oil Price Outlook**: Oil prices are expected to decline to the $60 range by the end of 2025 due to significant oversupply, with supply growth projected to outpace demand growth by three times. This could lead to a daily surplus of approximately 1.6 million barrels, impacting India's import bills and inflation positively [4]. - **CPI Impact**: A $10 drop in oil prices could reduce overall CPI by approximately 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points, providing more policy space for the Reserve Bank of India [4]. - **Agricultural Commodities**: The changing international trade policies are expected to have varied impacts on key commodities like cotton, sugar, and wheat. Improved U.S.-China trade relations may negatively affect India's cotton exports as China may increase its purchases of U.S. cotton [5]. - **Copper Price Forecast**: Copper prices are anticipated to rise to $12,500 in the first half of the year, with an annual average slightly below $12,100. This is attributed to frequent issues in the mining sector and strong demand from the power and data center industries [7]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical risks are believed to have peaked, with improving conditions expected to enhance predictability in the market. Central bank activities will continue to influence market dynamics through interest rates, liquidity, and risk preferences [8]. Other Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The concept of the "Crocodile Cycle" is introduced, suggesting that while energy prices may decline, industrial and precious metals could see price increases, indicating a need to focus on sub-sector performance rather than the overall commodities market [8]. - **Aluminum Price Outlook**: While copper prices are expected to drive aluminum prices higher, the outlook for aluminum is tempered by new capacity coming online in Indonesia [7]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the commodities market outlook and its implications for various stakeholders.

Group 1 - The company announced that as of December 31, 2025, it has repurchased approximately 15.43 million shares, representing 0.4108% of the latest total share capital [1] - The highest repurchase price was 4.32 yuan per share, while the lowest was 3.93 yuan per share [1] - The total amount spent on the repurchase was approximately 64.45 million yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Demand expectations for aluminum have been raised, leading to a strong breakthrough in aluminum prices [3] - Copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations after breaking historical highs, with significant inventory accumulation in domestic markets [5] - The lithium sector is entering an upward price cycle driven by strong demand, despite being in the off-season [79] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply [91] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - China's manufacturing PMI for December exceeded expectations at 50.1, compared to the forecast of 49.2 [8] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 27 were lower than expected at 199,000 [8] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.41% [11] - The sector's PE_TTM is 28.46, while the PB_LF is 3.51, indicating a premium over the broader market [20] Copper - London copper prices increased by 2.39%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.49% [25] - Domestic copper inventory saw a significant increase of 30.11%, while London copper inventory decreased by 7.45% [25] Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 1.79%, and Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 1.59% [37] - The profit margin for aluminum enterprises increased by 7.18% to 6,862 CNY/ton [37] Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices rose by 5.90% to 118,500 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices increased by 3.89% to 1,548 USD/ton [79] - The lithium sector is expected to see a reversal in supply-demand dynamics, leading to a price increase [79] Cobalt - MB cobalt prices rose by 1.53% to 24.88 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices increased by 10.11% to 490,000 CNY/ton [91] - Domestic smelting margins for cobalt increased by 74.85% to 96,700 CNY/ton [91]