华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 张智 北京报道 4月份，面对外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，我国经济顶住压力稳定增长，延续向新向好态 势。 5月19日，国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，4月我国经济生产需求平稳增长，就业 形势总体稳定，新动能积聚成长。 毕马威中国发布的2025年二季度《中国经济观察》报告指出："内需方面，得益于国内政策前置发力，居民消费、 企业投资显现出较强韧性；外需方面，在4月对等关税预期之下，企业抢出口活动热度较高。内需修复，外需走 强，国内生产热度也同步回升。" 不过，毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟也对本报记者提醒，后续经济表现仍存隐忧。内需方面，当前国内生产仍 然强于需求，物价仍在低位波动，一季度GDP平减指数为-0.8%，已经连续第八个季度为负；房企库存压力不减， 房地产企稳的前景仍不明朗；耐用消费品以旧换新消费政策刺激效果或将减弱。外需方面，短期因中美贸易谈判 取得实质性进展，关税降幅超预期，二季度我国出口仍有支撑，但后续中美博弈或长期拉锯，国际贸易形势依然 复杂多变，需要政府和企业提前布局。 "下阶段，要坚持稳中求进 ...

Economic Growth and Stability - In April, China's economy demonstrated resilience and stability despite external shocks and internal challenges, with macro policies working in coordination to support growth [3] - The industrial production saw a significant increase, with the industrial added value growing by 6.1% year-on-year, driven by robust performance in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [5][13] Industrial Performance - Equipment manufacturing added value increased by 9.8%, while high-tech manufacturing added value grew by 10%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 3.7 and 3.9 percentage points respectively [5] - Shanghai SANY Heavy Machinery Co. reported a strong sales performance, with expectations to produce over 5,000 medium-sized excavators in the first four months, reflecting a growth of over 10% year-on-year [7] Consumer Market Dynamics - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year in April, indicating a recovery in both goods and service consumption [9] - The service retail sector also showed growth, with a 5.1% increase in the first four months, highlighting the effectiveness of government initiatives to boost consumption [9][11] Foreign Trade Resilience - China's total goods import and export value reached 38,391 billion yuan in April, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, with exports increasing by 9.3% and imports by 0.8% [14] - The export performance of private enterprises and high-tech products has been notably strong, showcasing the resilience of China's foreign trade [19] Service Sector Growth - The national service production index grew by 6.0% year-on-year in April, indicating the service sector's critical role in stabilizing economic growth [13] - The expansion of the service industry is expected to enhance employment resilience and improve residents' income expectations, providing a foundation for consumer recovery [13] Export Market Expansion - Zhongtong Bus's overseas business has shown remarkable results, with significant contracts signed for electric buses in various international markets, enhancing the influence of "Made in China" [16]

新旧动能转换 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn 事件 4 月经济数据显示产需保持韧性，地产拖累固定资产投资。 投资要点 2025 年 05 月 20 日 ▌生产端:新旧动能转换，高技术与装备制造业支 撑生产端韧性 2025 年 4 月全国规模以上工业增加值仍维持较高增速，增长 6.1%，前值 7.7%。其中制造业和采矿业为主要拉动项，4 月 增速分别为 6.6%，和 5.7%。 制造业中，高技术制造业（增速 10%）、装备制造业（增速 9.8%）生产维持高位，尤其是 3D 打印设备、工业控制计算机 及系统、智能设备制造、电子元器件及设备、服务器、机器 人减速器、工业机器人；新能源汽车、汽车用锂离子动力电 池、太阳能电池等"新三样"；生物基化学纤维、碳纤维及 其复合材料、稀土磁性材料等新材料产品。 4 月出口交货值增速 0.9%，较前值 7.7%大幅回落。与海关出 口数据比明显偏弱，主要或由于转口贸易对海关数据的拉动 可能体现在出口交货值。 服务业方面，全国服务业生产指数同比增长 ...

1—4月，社会消费品零售总额达到16.2万亿元，同比增长4.7%，比去年全年加快1.2个百分点；直播带 货、即时配送等新业态新模式蓬勃发展，实物网上零售额增长5.8%。 21世纪经济报道记者 周潇枭 北京报道5月20日，国家发展改革委召开5月份新闻发布会，国家发展改革 委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超对当前经济热点问题进行了回应。 5月19日，国家统计局公布4月经济数据。面对4月中下旬陡增的对美出口关税等不利外部环境，我国经 济顶住压力实现平稳增长。 李超回应记者提问表示，4月经济运行向新向好，展现出强大的抗压能力和内生动力。从需求方面来 看，消费投资稳定增长、出口顶住巨大的外部压力保持增长，表明我国内需空间不断拓展、外需市场更 加多元。 4月份，固定资产投资持续扩大，制造业投资增长8.8%。以人民币计价的外贸出口额同比增长9.3%；锂 电池、电动汽车出口分别增长44.4%、25.7%；对东盟、韩国、日本、中亚五国出口快速增长，对共 建"一带一路"国家进出口加快增长。 从供给方面来看，生产供给较快增长，新动能持续释放。随着新质生产力不断培育壮大，创新优势加快 形成，并不断转化为新的增长点。4月份，高技术制造 ...

Economic Growth and Industrial Performance - In April, China's industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.1% year-on-year, marking a relatively fast growth rate for 2024 [1] - The service production index increased by 6% year-on-year, with information and business services showing stable growth, outpacing the overall service sector [1] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Social retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.1% year-on-year in April, driven by the effects of the old-for-new consumption policy, which contributed 1.4 percentage points to the total growth [2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4% year-on-year from January to April, with equipment and tool purchases increasing by 18.2%, contributing 64.5% to the overall investment growth [2] High-tech Manufacturing and New Production Capacity - The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 10% year-on-year, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.9 percentage points [4] - Key sectors such as aerospace equipment manufacturing and integrated circuit manufacturing saw significant growth, with increases of 21.4% and 21.3% respectively [4] Digital and Green Transformation - The added value of digital product manufacturing grew by 10% in April, with smart device manufacturing and electronic components experiencing accelerated growth [6] - New energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles showed remarkable production increases of 38.9% and 61.8% respectively [6] Consumer Market Trends - The retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment surged by 38.8%, while furniture and communication equipment also saw significant growth [10] - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.8% year-on-year, reflecting a growing trend in e-commerce [10] Policy Impact on Consumption - The implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy and improvements in the consumption environment have significantly boosted the consumer market [12] - The demand for green and upgraded consumption continues to rise, contributing to the stability and recovery of the consumer market [12]

在复杂多变的外部环境中，中国经济正展现出一种独特的韧性与智慧——以做强国内大循环的确定性，应对国际大循环的不确定性。 内需为主导、内部可循环是大国经济的独特优势。我国是超大规模经济体，经济体量、市场容量都很大，产业体系完整，配套能力强，供给和需求都能够 支撑国内大循环。 在全球贸易格局剧烈动荡的当下，贸易保护主义的浪潮仍在汹涌，关税冲击频繁搅动着国际市场的平静。在这样复杂多变的局势中，中国经济的"双循 环"战略愈发凸显其前瞻性和必要性。 ■中国经济时报评论员 近期，全球经济形势愈发复杂，贸易保护主义的阴霾仍未散去，关税冲击等不稳定因素依然存在。在此背景下，我国经济的"双循环"战略愈发显得重要， 做强国内大循环已成为中国经济行稳致远的战略之举。国务院近日召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，强调要把发展的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环上， 以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。 构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局，是习近平总书记在2020年4月中央财经委员会会议上首次提出的。从2020年提出"双循 环"，到如今把发展的战略立足点放在做 ...

■中国经济时报记者 张娜 周子勋 面对外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，4月份我国经济顶住压力稳定增长，延续向新向好发展态势。 国家统计局5月19日公布的数据显示，与国内市场联系紧密的市场销售和服务业继续稳中有升。受国际市场影响较大的货物出口和工业生产保持总体稳 定。表明我国经济在复杂环境中展现出显著韧性。 4月经济延续回升向好态势 4月份，我国经济延续回升向好态势，社会消费品零售总额、服务业生产指数分别增长4.7%和5.9%，较一季度均提升0.1个百分点。出口增长7.5%，规模以 上工业增加值保持6.4%的稳定增速。 商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院研究员彭波表示，虽然当前国内外经济形势依然严峻，但4月份多项数据充分表明中国经济展现出良好的韧性与潜力，尤 其是在创新驱动发展战略推动下，新兴产业快速发展，传统产业转型升级加快，为实现高质量发展目标奠定了坚实基础。下一阶段，需持续扩大内需、深 化产业升级、稳定外贸外资，推动经济向新向好态势进一步巩固，为全年高质量发展奠定基础。 受国内外环境复杂变化影响，4月份规上工业增加值、全国服务业生产指数、社会消费品零售总额等主要经济指标增速较3月份有所回落。国务院 ...

Group 1 - Industrial production has seen rapid growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by around 10%. The production of 3D printing equipment and industrial robots has surged by over 50%. This growth is attributed to macro policy measures that have accelerated industrial upgrades, leading to enhanced production efficiency and quality [1][3] Group 2 - Market sales are on the rise, driven by the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" consumption policy. Retail sales in categories such as home appliances, cultural and office supplies, and furniture are experiencing high growth. Various local departments are implementing special actions to boost consumption, enriching consumption scenarios and continuously releasing consumption potential [4][6] Group 3 - Foreign trade has shown resilience, with total goods import and export volume increasing by 2.4% year-on-year from January to April 2025, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter. This growth is notable against the backdrop of rising unilateralism and protectionism, supported by China's strong manufacturing capabilities and the proactive response of foreign trade enterprises through market diversification strategies [8][10] Group 4 - Investment is steadily expanding, with high-tech industry investments leading the way. Investments in information services and computer and office equipment manufacturing are in a high growth phase, indicating optimistic market expectations and strong demand for industrial upgrades, reflecting the trend of China's economic transition towards innovation-driven growth [10][12]

四月份国民经济数据显示，我国经济在复杂环境下展现出显著韧性，主要经济指标实现平稳较快增长。 面对外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的局面，生产需求保持平稳增长，就业形势总体稳定，新动 能积聚成长。 从生产供给角度看，四月份全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，环比增长0.22%，这一增速在去年 以来月度数据中表现较为突出。服务业生产指数同比增长6.0%，达到今年以来月度增速的次高水平。 国内需求方面呈现积极变化。消费品以旧换新相关商品销售大幅增长，对零售总额增长起到明显支撑作 用。限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类商品零售额同比增长38.8%，今年以来持续提速。文化办公用 品类、家具类、通讯器材类商品零售额同比分别增长33.5%、26.9%和19.9%，均明显快于商品零售总体 增速。 来源：金融界 高技术服务业投资同比增长11.3%，科技创新和产业创新加快融合，对高技术服务需求扩大。这些数据 表明，我国经济结构持续优化，新质生产力培育取得积极进展。 房地产市场方面，四月份全国70个大中城市房价总体稳定，一、二、三线城市房价同比降幅均持续收 窄。房地产市场交易和价格基本稳定，继续朝着止跌回稳方向迈进。 我国经济 ...

Economic Growth and Policy Implementation - The national economy has shown resilience and stable growth in April, supported by proactive macro policies that effectively respond to external shocks [1][2] - Major production demand indicators have seen significant growth compared to the previous year, with industrial value-added increasing by 6.1% year-on-year in April [2] - Fixed asset investment has also expanded, with a year-on-year growth of 4% in the first four months [2] Trade and External Resilience - Despite a challenging international environment, China's foreign trade has maintained steady growth, with total goods import and export value increasing by 2.4% year-on-year in the first four months [3] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative has grown by 3.9%, indicating a diversification in trade partnerships [3] Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer market has shown stable growth, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.7% year-on-year in the first four months, supported by policies promoting consumption [4] - The "old for new" consumption policy has positively impacted sales in various categories, with significant year-on-year growth in household appliances and communication equipment [4] New Economic Drivers - New consumption drivers are emerging, with online retail and instant retail gaining popularity, leading to a 5.8% year-on-year increase in physical goods online retail sales [4] - The high-tech manufacturing sector has also seen robust growth, with a 10% year-on-year increase in value-added for high-tech manufacturing in April [3] Policy Effectiveness and Future Outlook - The effectiveness of macro policies has been evident, with a focus on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations to ensure sustainable economic development [5][8] - The government aims to enhance consumer capacity and improve the consumption environment to further unlock consumption potential [5]