Group 1 - The U.S. added 177,000 non-farm jobs in April, exceeding the expected increase of 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - Despite strong job growth, there are indications of employment pressure among U.S. residents, with many struggling to find work after being laid off [1] - The impact of Trump's trade policies is still unfolding, with significant layoffs in the federal government and potential supply chain disruptions affecting major retailers like Walmart and Target [1] Group 2 - Concerns have been raised about the reliability of U.S. economic data, which is perceived to serve Wall Street rather than reflect the realities of residents' lives [2] - Warren Buffett criticized current U.S. trade policies and highlighted the unsustainable nature of the fiscal deficit, emphasizing the risks of currency devaluation [2] - Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves reached a record high of over $347 billion, indicating Buffett's cautious outlook on the U.S. economy [2] Group 3 - The better-than-expected non-farm data temporarily stabilized U.S. stocks, but it led to a downward adjustment in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs now predicting a cut in July instead of June [3] - Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that Trump's tariff policies could have significant negative impacts, potentially leading the U.S. into recession [3] - There is a growing disconnect between the seemingly positive economic data and the underlying realities, suggesting that financial risks in the U.S. may need to be carefully monitored [3]

基于欧佩克+供应增加的假设，高盛下调油价预估 高盛三名大宗商品研究团队成员在一份报告中表示，在欧佩克+供应增加的假设下下调了油价预测。欧 佩克+周六决定将6月份的产量增加41.1万桶/日，与高盛的基本情况一致。高盛目前预计，7月份欧佩克 +的最终产量将增加41万桶/日，而此前预计为14万桶/日。高盛预测，布伦特原油价格在2025年剩余时 间内平均为60美元/桶，2026年为56美元/桶，而此前的预期分别为63美元/桶和58美元/桶。高盛预计， 在2025年剩余时间里，WTI原油的平均价格为56美元/桶，2026年为52美元/桶，而此前的预测分别为59 美元/桶和55美元/桶。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market is experiencing a significant rebound amid easing trade war tensions, but Goldman Sachs warns of substantial uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies and the underestimation of recession risks in the U.S. economy [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts a 45% probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months, driven by rising policy uncertainty and declining business confidence [2][3]. - Key indicators show that the proportion of respondents expecting economic activity to decline is nearing historical highs, alongside potential slowdowns in real income growth and ongoing financial tensions [3]. Market Predictions - In a recession scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop to 4,600 points, representing a 17.9% decline from recent closing prices, while high-yield credit spreads may widen to 788 basis points [3]. - Traditional hedging tools like long-term U.S. Treasuries and the dollar may fail to effectively mitigate stock market risks [4]. Investment Strategies - Gold is identified as the best hedge against recession, with prices potentially reaching $3,880 per ounce by year-end, driven by increased central bank purchases and shifts in private investor allocations [6]. - The report highlights that global gold ETF holdings are only 1% of the U.S. Treasury market size, indicating significant potential for price increases with even minor reallocations from other assets [6]. Oil Market Insights - Oil put options are recommended as a quality hedge in recession scenarios, with Brent crude oil prices potentially averaging $53 per barrel in a U.S. recession context [7]. - The report suggests that oil prices may experience larger declines in the next recession due to OPEC's current high spare capacity [7]. Structural Trends - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the "4D structural trends" that will favor gold and copper in the long term, including de-dollarization, increased defense spending, energy risk mitigation, and insufficient copper mining investments [9][10]. - The report anticipates that European defense spending will rise from 2% to 3% of GDP over the next five years, which will increase demand for copper and other metals [9]. Copper Market Outlook - Insufficient investment in copper mining could lead to price recoveries, with estimates suggesting copper prices may reach $10,600 per ton by December 2026 under non-recession conditions [10]. - In a recession scenario, copper prices could fall below cost support levels, potentially reaching $6,750 per ton [10].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on a labor dispute involving the dismissal of two labor committee members by President Trump poses a significant threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve and could undermine the foundational principles of American governance [2][4][6]. Group 1: Legal Implications - The case challenges the precedent set by the Humphrey's Executor v. United States ruling, which states that the President cannot dismiss independent agency officials for political reasons [2][4]. - The Supreme Court's conservative justices have allowed Trump to suspend the two labor committee members, indicating a potential shift in judicial interpretation that could affect the independence of various regulatory bodies [4][6]. - The ruling could set a precedent that undermines the dual protections of the Federal Reserve's independence, which is currently safeguarded by statutory term limits and judicial precedent [4][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Wall Street is reacting to the potential loss of Federal Reserve independence, with Goldman Sachs warning that gold prices could soar above $4,500 if this independence collapses [4]. - The U.S. dollar has already fallen back to levels seen in early 2024, reflecting a broader loss of trust in the financial system [4][6]. Group 3: Historical Context - The situation draws parallels to the 1970s when President Nixon pressured the Federal Reserve, leading to stagflation with inflation rates reaching 14% and unemployment exceeding 10% [4][6]. - The current political maneuvering raises concerns about the future of independent regulatory agencies in the U.S., as the outcome of this case could impact over 50 independent bodies, including the SEC and FCC [6][8]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The ruling could signify a shift towards a more centralized executive power, challenging the foundational principle of checks and balances in the U.S. government [6][8]. - The potential for presidential control over interest rates could transform monetary policy from an economic tool into a means of political power [8].

美国商务部4月30日公布最新数据显示，2025年第一季度，按年率计算，美国国内生产总值（GDP）环比萎缩0.3%，为2022年以来的首次收缩。 这一最新数据的糟糕程度超出市场预期，凸显美国政府关税政策引发的不确定性持续上升，并导致企业与消费者信心下滑。 △美国消费者新闻与商业频道网站报道截图 中国国际经济交流中心美欧研究部副部长张茉楠在接受中央广播电视总台环球资讯广播采访时分析指出，美国第一季度的数据显示，关税政策已经对美国经 济产生了全面的负面影响。 首先，现在的关税政策使美国与其他国家的贸易摩擦加剧，企业为规避关税带来的成本，提前增加进口，这也使得美国进口量大幅增加。一季度美国贸易逆 差创纪录地扩大，远超市场预期，拉低了美国一季度GDP。 其次，关税政策的不确定性以及对美国经济增长的担忧，让美国消费者的信心受到打击，消费者支出进一步减少，特别是减少不必要的开支，这也给美国 GDP带来了负面效应。一季度美国个人实际消费支出创2023年第二季度以来的新低。 另外，美国关税政策的不确定性，也让企业进一步减少投资，导致就业市场岗位减少。一些企业为了维持现有规模，不得不裁员。4月美国就业市场中，私 人部门就业人数仅 ...

据高盛商品交易员Adam Gillard，五一假期前夕，中国交易员通过上海期货交易所和上海黄金交易所抛售了近100万盎司黄金，几乎完全逆清空了 上周买入的仓位，导致在岸总持仓较历史高点已回落5%。 尽管中国在全球未平仓合约中的占比仍维持在约40%的高位，但上涨动能似乎暂时已达到顶峰。 周四，中国市场因五一劳动节假期休市，现货黄金盘中跌破3230美元/盎司，日内跌幅达1.77%。 高盛：中国交易员对金价的影响力被低估 Gillard此前发布的报告显示，上周二（4月22日），在中国投资者通过上海黄金交易所（SGE）和上海期货交易所（SHFE）增持120万盎司黄金的 推动下，金价创下3500美元/盎司的历史新高，成交量达到创纪录水平。 截至发稿，金价跌幅缩窄至1.53%，报3237.78美元/盎司。 Gillard指出了一个关键现象：近期黄金价格的波动几乎都集中在中国市场开盘时间附近发生。 他解释道，中国对价格产生"不成比例"的影响，是因为他们在一天中流动性较低的时段（亚洲早盘）执行交易，这可能会触发中国以外的CTA交 易信号——这也可以解释为何金价在今日亚洲早盘交易中暴跌至两周来的最低水平。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite significant market volatility due to Trump's tariff policies, global stock markets experienced a remarkable "V-shaped" rebound in April, largely driven by the government's measures to soften trade policies and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][15][17]. Market Performance - In April, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.8%, the Dow Jones by 3.2%, while the Nasdaq index rose by 0.9%. The Nasdaq experienced a maximum drawdown of 16% in the first week but rebounded approximately 18% in the following weeks [3][2]. - The Dow and S&P 500 indices recorded seven consecutive days of gains, with the S&P 500's increase over this period being the largest since November 2020 [2]. Bond Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a wide fluctuation of 50 basis points during the month, closing at 4.173%, slightly down from 4.245% a month prior [4]. Sector Performance - Apple Inc. reflected market volatility, with its stock initially dropping significantly due to reliance on overseas manufacturing but rebounding after the government announced exemptions for certain tech products. The stock fell 4.3% for the month but rose 0.6% on a specific day [7]. Asset Class Divergence - The U.S. dollar fell over 4% in April, marking its largest monthly decline since November 2022 and the second-largest since September 2010. In contrast, gold rose nearly 6%, marking its fourth consecutive month of gains, while Bitcoin surged 14%, its best monthly performance since the election-driven rally in November [8]. - The oil market showed weakness, with WTI crude experiencing its worst monthly performance since November 2021, closing at its lowest level since February 2021 [8]. Economic Data Discrepancies - There is a notable divergence in U.S. economic data, with "hard data" showing strength while "soft data" indicates a collapse. This discrepancy complicates investor assessments of how tariffs will impact the economy [9][11]. - Institutional investors remain cautious despite the S&P 500's 14% rise since April 7, while retail investors are aggressively increasing their positions, particularly in the Nasdaq market, reflecting a more optimistic sentiment [11][13]. Market Logic Behind Rebound - The market's recovery is attributed to the Trump administration's measures to soften trade policies, including a 90-day tariff suspension and exemptions for tech products. This has led investors to believe that further measures may be taken if economic data worsens [15]. - Weak economic data has fueled expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, reinforcing the "bad news is good news" narrative in the market [16][17]. Historical Context - Historical data indicates that since 1970, in cases of significant monthly drawdowns, the S&P 500 has typically rebounded in the same month, with most instances leading to further gains in the following months. However, there is caution due to the potential for a "stagflation" scenario similar to the "Nixon shock" in 1973 [18].

Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the first decline since Q2 2022, and falling short of the expected -0.2% [1][3] - This decline follows a growth of 2.4% in Q4 2024, indicating a significant downturn compared to the average growth rate of approximately 3% over the past two years [3][4] Trade and Consumer Spending - Net exports negatively impacted GDP by nearly 5 percentage points, the largest recorded impact, with imports surging by 41.3%, the highest increase in five years [3][4] - Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of GDP, grew by only 1.8%, the lowest rate since mid-2023, although it exceeded the expected 1.2% [3][4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for Q1 was initially reported at an annualized rate of 3.5%, surpassing the expected 3.1% [3][4] Corporate Responses and Market Reactions - Major companies like American Airlines, PepsiCo, and Procter & Gamble have expressed concerns over the unpredictability of Trump's tariff policies, which are disrupting business plans and consumer confidence [5] - General Motors withdrew its 2025 profit forecast due to automotive tariffs, highlighting the adverse effects of trade policies on corporate outlooks [5] - The stock market reacted negatively to the economic data, with significant declines in major indices following the announcement [1][3] Economic Forecasts and Implications - Economists predict that Trump's trade policies may lead to a slowdown in U.S. economic growth in the latter half of the year, with the IMF revising its growth forecast down to 1.8% from 2.7% [4][5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is causing consumers to make panic purchases, which may lead to a depletion of future demand [5] - The dual pressures of rising inflation and weakening economic momentum are creating challenges for the Federal Reserve, complicating monetary policy decisions [5]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs significantly lowered the US Q1 GDP growth forecast to -0.8% due to an unexpected widening of the trade deficit in March, driven by increased consumer goods imports [1] - Morgan Stanley highlighted that uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may lead foreign investors to reduce their investments in the US [2] - Pantheon Macroeconomics indicated that the uncertainty from tariffs will limit any significant rebound in the French economy, projecting stagnation for the remainder of the year [3] Group 2 - ING reported that the euro has lost its status as a preferred alternative to the dollar, with most G10 currencies performing better than the euro recently [4] - ING also noted that news of potential reductions in auto tariffs by the Trump administration helped the dollar recover some of its recent losses [5] - Capital Economics stated that the impact of tariffs on the Eurozone economy is expected to intensify, with the economic sentiment index dropping from 95.2 to 93.6 in April [6] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank suggested that the European Central Bank should act more decisively to address increasing supply shocks and rising inflation [8] - Tianfeng Securities projected that the aerospace engine sector may stabilize and recover, with a significant portion of military electronic stocks held by active funds [9] - CITIC Securities reported that the implementation of new tax refund policies for departing travelers could boost domestic consumption, estimating a potential market space of nearly 100 billion [10]

北京时间周四22:00，美国公布3月PCE数据。 数据显示，核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.6%，创2024年6月以来新低，符合预期。美国3月核心PCE物价指数月率录得0%，创2020年4月以来新低，低于预期 的0.1%。 美国3月PCE物价指数年率录得2.3%，高于预期的2.20%，前值由2.50%修正为2.7%。PCE物价指数月率录得0%，前值由0.30%修正为0.4%。 3月份通胀急剧放缓，更接近美联储2% 的目标，而消费者支出继续推动经济。 报告的其他细节显示，3月份个人收入和个人支出分别增长0.5% 和0.7%。这两个数字都好于投资者的预期。 特朗普上周在社交媒体上写道，他认为"几乎没有通货膨胀"。但经济学家认为关税是通货膨胀的，预计随着关税的实施，通货膨胀将回升。高盛经济学家预 计，8月份核心PCE通胀率将上升近一个百分点至3.5%，这将是自2024年9月以来最糟糕的通胀。 数据公布后，现货黄金短线下挫12美元，美指小幅上涨。 持续更新中…… 美联储首选的通胀指标在3月份近一年来首次停滞不前，消费者支出强劲，在预计关税将广泛推高价格之前，这是一个可喜的缓和。 此前数据显示，美国经济自2022年以来首 ...