Group 1: Gold Market - International gold prices stabilized above $4500 per ounce and reached a historical high on Tuesday, but experienced a slight decline on Wednesday as some investors took profits [1][5] - As of the close, gold futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $4502.8 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.06% [5] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver prices continued their strong upward trend, marking a historical high for the fourth consecutive trading day, closing at $71.685 per ounce with an increase of 0.77% [7] - Analysts noted that the rise in silver prices is driven by factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased industrial demand, and investment demand, but warned of the risks associated with speculative positions that could lead to significant short-term corrections [7] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - On Wednesday, U.S. stock markets closed early due to the upcoming holiday, with overall trading being light; the "fear index" VIX fell to a one-year low, indicating reduced investor concern about short-term risk events [3] - The three major U.S. stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.60% and the S&P 500 rising by 0.32%, both reaching record closing highs [3]

"纸黄金的规模——白银也是如此——相对于实物供应，可能是100比1。只要大家不断把合约滚动展期、不要求交割，市场就能正常运转。不过，一旦实物 需求上升，局面就会立刻发生变化，只要市场中有一部分人说，'把白银给我，我要实物交割，'那么商品交易所和托管机构就会突然说，'等等，我们根本没 有那么多白银。'" 里卡兹表示，他长期以来一直预测黄金价格将走高，此前曾预计到2026年底金价将升至5000美元/盎司。然而，近期的价格走势迫使他重新审视这一目 标。"在2026年底之前看到黄金到1万美元，我一点也不会感到惊讶。我在书面预测中喜欢更保守一些，因为做到准确很重要。但没错，5000美元触手可及， 而对黄金来说，1万美元也不会是什么意外。" 格隆汇12月25日｜随着黄金不断刷新历史新高，白银突破70美元/盎司关口，"传奇"货币专家吉姆·里卡兹(Jim Rickards)表示，贵金属这轮上涨的下一阶段， 可能会比许多投资者预期的更为猛烈。他称，纸面金属市场与实物金属市场之间的结构性失衡，正在为价格大幅上行创造条件——尤其是一旦投资者开始要 求实物交割，行情或将更具爆发力。 （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅 ...

凤凰网财经讯 12月25日，沪指低开高走录得7连阳，深成指、创业板指探底回升。沪深两市成交额1.92万亿，较上一个交易日放量443亿。 盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超3700只个股上涨，其中有93只个股涨停。截至收盘，沪指涨0.47%，深成指涨0.33%，创业板指涨0.3%。 从板块来看，商业航天概念持续活跃，20余只成分股涨停，神剑股份6连板，再升科技、九鼎新材、中国卫星、隆基机械涨停。机器人概念快速拉升，首开 股份、香山股份、昊志机电等十余股涨停芯片产业链概念走强，圣晖集成4连板，国风新材、扬子新材涨停。造纸概念大涨，博汇纸业、宜宾纸业、五洲特 纸涨停。 | U | 50 | .IUU | フロJ火/約里 。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1.92万亿 +443亿 | | 涨停表现 | | | | | | 封板率 | | 昨涨停今表现 | | | 77.00% | | 3.75% | 封板 79 触及 24 高开率 70% 获利率 下跌方面，贵金属、海南、能源金属等板块跌幅居前。其中海南自贸概念集体下挫，海南瑞泽跌近7%。 ...

截至收盘，上证指数涨0.47%报3959.62点，深证成指涨0.33%报13531.41点，创业板指涨0.3%报3239.34 点，北证50涨0.86%报1457.96点。全市场成交额19218亿元，较上日成交额放量246亿元。板块题材上， 造纸、商业航天板块活跃，贵金属、能源金属调整。盘面上，造纸板块走强，恒达新材20CM涨停封 板，博汇纸业、宜宾纸业、五洲特纸涨停封板。商业航天全线爆发，广联航空20CM涨停封板，神剑股 份、上海港湾、中天火箭、江顺科技等数十只个股涨停封板。贵金属板块走弱，招金黄金、湖南白银跌 超3%。能源金属板块调整，天齐锂业、盛新锂能、融捷股份跌近3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with investors facing both extreme bullish sentiment and sudden bearish movements, indicating a potential turning point for the sector [1][3]. Short-term Dynamics - There is a peak in bullish sentiment, with both the Shanghai Silver VIX and the U.S. SLV options volatility reaching historical highs, indicating crowded positions [2]. - A sudden drop in platinum spot prices has revealed stark funding divergences, suggesting that current market conditions may be a critical juncture for precious metals [3]. - Short-term players are advised to avoid high-risk positions, as chasing prices may lead to losses [6]. - A significant risk arises from a "passive rebalancing" event, with passive funds having to adjust their holdings according to indices, leading to potential selling pressure on silver (9% sell-off) and gold (3% sell-off) [8]. Long-term Fundamentals - The long-term bullish trend for gold is supported by four key factors: central bank purchases, anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, rising global debt levels, and increasing retail investor allocations [12][15][18]. - Central banks have consistently purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually for three years, with projections for 2024 reaching 1,086 tons, indicating a strong foundation for gold prices [15]. - The Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts are anticipated to support gold prices, as historical data shows a negative correlation between the dollar and gold [18]. - The global debt crisis, particularly in the U.S., has created a demand for safe-haven assets like gold, which is viewed as a "no-liability asset" [18]. - Retail investors currently have a low allocation to gold (0.17% in U.S. gold ETFs), suggesting significant room for growth in this area, which could further drive up gold prices [18]. Investment Strategy - Short-term strategy should focus on risk management, with recommendations to reduce exposure to precious metals until after the BCOM rebalancing on January 15 [20]. - For mid to long-term investments, the strategy should involve buying on dips, as short-term fluctuations are seen as opportunities rather than threats [20]. - Suggested investment vehicles include gold-related ETFs for simplicity, diversified mining stocks for balanced exposure, and traditional base metals benefiting from manufacturing recovery [20].

今日周四（12月25日）因美国圣诞节休市，今年以来贵金属普涨，白银劲升149%，黄金涨逾70%，铂 金、钯金分别涨约145%和超85%，主因矿场供应紧张、关税不确定性及投资资金从黄金轮动。创纪录 新高后获利了结引发回调。特朗普称望新任美联储主席降息，市场预期明年或降息两次，叠加地缘因 素，令市场不确定性升温。 【要闻速递】 贵金属今年迎来标志性大涨，12月购买热潮达顶峰，但瑞银策略师乔尼·特维斯周三在客户报告中警示 风险上升。她表示，这轮涨势速度与幅度令最乐观者也意外，虽美元走弱有助，却难觅单一强触发点解 释整体上涨。 摘要今日周四（12月25日）因美国圣诞节休市，今年以来贵金属普涨，白银劲升149%，黄金涨逾 70%，铂金、钯金分别涨约145%和超85%，主因矿场供应紧张、关税不确定性及投资资金从黄金轮动。 创纪录新高后获利了结引发回调。特朗普称望新任美联储主席降息，市场预期明年或降息两次，叠加地 缘因素，令市场不确定性升温。 现货铂金：现货铂金近期呈强势多头格局，自12月22日突破2000美元/盎司后持续上行，24日创历史新 高2300美元，短期均线呈多头排列，支撑位关注2250美元。MACD日线释放看多 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Geopolitical conflicts such as US tanker seizures, Russian port attacks, and potential supply cuts in Kazakhstan have raised concerns about supply disruptions, but the fundamental supply is still loose, and geopolitical factors may trigger short - term rebounds [2] Precious Metals - The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, but short - term volatility may increase after the Christmas holiday [3] Copper - Domestic spot supply - demand gives more downward pressure on copper prices, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper, and it is recommended to hold long positions with an adjusted support level and set a stop - profit [4] Aluminum - The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. With the approach of the Christmas holiday, funds are leaving. It is recommended that long positions be held against the 40 - day moving average [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of ADC12 has been raised. When the spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum expands to over 1,000 yuan, pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the spread [6] Alumina - Alumina has an oversupply situation, and costs may decline. It will be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [7] Zinc - External inventory increases have put short - term pressure on zinc prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [8] Lead - Lead is in a low - level consolidation pattern. Pay attention to the resistance at 17,500 yuan/ton [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is currently dominated by policy sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [10] Tin - In the first quarter of 2026, tin supply is expected to turn to recovery, while consumption in traditional fields is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position reduction and use put options [11] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate has broken through 120,000 yuan. The overall fundamentals are strong, and the short side is under pressure [12] Industrial Silicon - The market is mainly driven by the expectation of production cuts at the end of the month, and it is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [13] Polysilicon - The industry has strong expectations but weak reality. After rule adjustments, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate and decline [14] Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The demand for rebar has recovered slightly, while the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both declined. The overall market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [15] Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is at a low level. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate [16] Coke - The third round of price cuts has been fully implemented. The price is expected to fluctuate [17] Coking Coal - Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production. The price is expected to fluctuate after repairing the discount [18] Manganese Silicon - The spot price of manganese ore has increased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [19] Silicon Iron - The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [20] Group 3: Shipping Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". The near - month contract is expected to continue to fluctuate around the spot price [21] Group 4: Fuel and Chemicals Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for fuel oil has not been significantly boosted. High - sulfur fuel oil is in a game between geopolitical support and supply surplus, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak [22] Asphalt - The supply - demand of asphalt is marginally loose. Geopolitical factors may bring short - term rebounds, but it will eventually return to a price - pressured situation [23] Urea - The supply - demand of urea has improved marginally, and the market is running strongly [24] Methanol - The port inventory has increased significantly. The short - term market may fluctuate weakly in the range, while there is an upward drive in the long - term [25] Pure Benzene - The port inventory of pure benzene has increased. Consider long - position in the month - spread in the medium - term [26] Styrene - The cost support of styrene is insufficient, and the supply pressure is difficult to reverse [27] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The prices of polypropylene and plastic have declined, and the market is under pressure [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may run at a low level, and the upward range of caustic soda is expected to be limited [29] PX and PTA - The PX market has a strong expectation, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position idea in the medium - term [30] Ethylene Glycol - The short - term pressure of ethylene glycol has eased, but it is still under long - term pressure [31] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - The long - term supply - demand of short - fiber is relatively good, while bottle chips are mainly driven by cost [32] Group 5: Building Materials Glass - The industry inventory has increased, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [33] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The demand has weakened, and it is recommended to take a bullish strategy [34] Soda Ash - Soda ash is facing long - term supply - demand surplus pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider a spread strategy [35] Group 6: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American harvest expectations. Soybean meal prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of US soybeans [36] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil have continued to rebound. Pay attention to the macro - atmosphere [37] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The mid - term strategy for rapeseed is to short on rebounds, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [38] Soybean No.1 - The price of domestic soybeans is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the auction results [39] Corn - The price of corn is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the selling progress in the Northeast and auctions [40] Live Pigs - The short - term price of live pigs has rebounded slightly, but the main contract is expected to be weak in the medium - term [41] Eggs - The egg market has turned optimistic in the long - term, but beware of rapid price increases [42] Cotton - The domestic cotton market is oscillating strongly. It is recommended for the industry to consider hedging and buy at low prices [43] Sugar - The international sugar market has sufficient supply, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season production [44] Apples - The apple market is bearish, and it is recommended to maintain a short - position idea [45] Wood - The wood price is at a low level. The low inventory provides some support, and it is recommended to wait and see [46] Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [47] Group 7: Financial Products Stock Index - The A - share market has risen, and the stock index futures are affected by the trends of the US dollar and precious metals. Track geopolitical and domestic policy developments [48] Treasury Bonds - In the context of increasing counter - cyclical adjustment policies, the long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve may continue to steepen [49]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metals market, particularly silver, has seen unprecedented inflows and price increases, with silver futures experiencing a significant rise in both trading volume and price, indicating strong investor interest and market dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 24, domestic platinum, palladium, silver, copper, and gold all reached new historical highs, with silver futures seeing a daily increase of 8.12% [3]. - The net inflow of funds into silver futures on December 24 was nearly 6.5 billion yuan, with a total open interest of approximately 820,000 contracts, indicating a substantial accumulation of capital [1][3]. - The price of the main silver futures contract has surpassed 17,600 yuan per kilogram, marking a new record [3]. Group 2: Comparative Analysis - From the beginning of December to the present, the domestic silver futures have increased by 38.36%, significantly outpacing international silver prices, which rose by 25.4% in New York and 26% in London during the same period [2]. - The domestic silver fund, Guotou Silver LOF, has seen a remarkable increase of 103.93% since early December, with an annual increase of 254.9%, far exceeding the monthly and annual increases of silver futures [4]. Group 3: Fund and Investment Dynamics - The Guotou Silver LOF fund has experienced a trading halt due to its price being significantly higher than its net asset value, indicating potential risks for investors [7]. - Other commodity funds, including those focused on precious metals, have also announced trading halts due to similar pricing discrepancies, highlighting the volatility in the market [9]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented new trading limits and margin requirements for silver futures to manage the high volatility and speculative trading [10][11]. - The CME Group has also raised margin requirements for silver futures, aiming to curb excessive leverage in the market, which historically has led to significant price corrections [11].

Core Viewpoint - The global metal market in 2025 is experiencing unprecedented price surges across various metals, driven by a combination of supply-demand imbalances, policy adjustments, and industrial upgrades, marking the beginning of a new valuation cycle for the metal industry [1] Precious Metals - Gold prices have surpassed $4,500 per ounce, with an annual increase of over 60%, supported by global uncertainties and central bank purchases, with over 1,000 tons of net gold bought by central banks in 2025 [1] - Silver has doubled in price, driven by a 50% year-on-year increase in silver demand for photovoltaic applications, with industrial demand significantly boosting silver prices [2] - Platinum and palladium are supported by hydrogen energy and automotive recovery, with ETF holdings rising, indicating a positive market trend for these metals [2] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have reached over $12,200 per ton, with a year-on-year increase of over 30%, driven by demand from electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI data centers, while supply disruptions have led to a projected global refined copper shortage of 150,000 tons in 2025 [3] - Nickel prices have seen significant fluctuations due to policy changes in Indonesia and domestic stockpiling, with a potential for price recovery in 2026 as demand remains stable [3][4] New Energy Metals - Lithium prices have increased by 28% since July, supported by new regulations that eliminate inefficient production and rising demand from energy storage and electric vehicles, with a projected penetration rate of over 40% for new energy vehicles in 2025 [4] - Cobalt prices have surged over 130% due to tightened export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which holds 70% of global cobalt resources, highlighting the vulnerability of the supply chain [4] Strategic Metals - Strategic metals like tungsten, gallium, and germanium are experiencing price surges due to their irreplaceable roles in key industries, with China controlling 98% of global gallium production and 70% of germanium production, leading to an 84% increase in gallium prices in 2025 [5] - The combination of policy support and technological advancements is transforming strategic metals from mere resources into strategic assets, with ongoing value reassessment in the industry [5] 2026 Outlook - The metal market is expected to shift from broad increases to structural differentiation, with copper projected to reach $13,000 per ton due to limited supply and structural demand from new energy and AI [6] - Precious metals are likely to experience high volatility but remain supported by safe-haven and industrial demand, while strategic metals are expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend due to solidifying global pricing power [7] Conclusion - The 2025 metal market reflects a broader energy revolution and industrial upgrade, with metals playing a crucial role in supporting new productive forces, indicating a significant opportunity for those who can navigate the evolving landscape of supply-demand dynamics, policy, and technology [8]

每经AI快讯，12月25日，截至午盘，上证指数涨0.29%，深证成指跌0.11%，创业板指跌0.38%，北证50 涨1.04%。全市场成交额12119亿元，较上日成交额放量527亿元。 板块题材上，造纸、商业航天板块活跃，贵金属、能源金属调整。 盘面上，造纸板块走强，恒达新材（301469）20CM涨停封板，博汇纸业（600966）、宜宾纸业 （600793）、五洲特纸（605007）涨停封板。商业航天全线爆发，广联航空（300900）20CM涨停封 板，神剑股份（002361）、上海港湾（605598）、中天火箭（003009）、江顺科技（001400）等数十只 个股涨停封板。贵金属板块走弱，招金黄金（000506）、湖南白银（002716）跌超4%。能源金属板块 调整，天齐锂业（002466）、盛新锂能（002240）、融捷股份（002192）跌超4%。 ...