Core Viewpoint - Precious metals have collectively surged, with multiple varieties reaching new highs, driven by factors such as central bank purchases and changing monetary policies [1][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 22, spot gold prices exceeded $4,385 per ounce, marking a historical high with a year-to-date increase of over 65% [1][2]. - Spot silver broke the $68 per ounce mark, achieving a year-to-date increase of approximately 137% [3]. - Spot platinum rose over 3% to $2,002.3 per ounce, marking its first rise above $2,000 since 2008, with a year-to-date increase of over 120% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Global central bank purchases of gold are identified as a key variable disrupting traditional supply-demand balance, with expectations of a shift to looser monetary policy by the Federal Reserve further benefiting gold prices [5][6]. - The World Gold Council reported that global physical gold ETF inflows reached $5.2 billion in November, marking six consecutive months of inflows, with total assets under management growing by 5.4% to $530 billion [5]. - Market confidence in potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has decreased, with the probability of maintaining current rates rising to 79% [5]. Group 3: Economic Influences - Analysts note that the combination of ample liquidity and strong supply constraints is pushing commodity prices to challenge historical highs [6]. - The importance of basic raw materials for economic development is increasingly recognized by various countries, leading to the use of tariffs to secure these products, which exacerbates regional market gaps and drives prices upward [6]. - The ongoing trend of central bank gold purchases, along with the processes of de-dollarization and geopolitical fragmentation, are expected to sustain and potentially expand the demand for gold as a credit hedge [6].

消息面上，本周美国将公布Q3季度GDP和修正后的7~9月PCE数据，若PCE数据可进一步反映通胀出现 明显缓和，伴随美国劳动力市场正在走弱的各项指标，会增加美联储再次降息的可能性，有效提振贵金 属长期上涨趋势。此外，据彭博汇编的数据，黄金ETF已连续五周录得资金流入。 正信期货指出，中长期来看，美联储降息周期的确立和美元信用的减弱将有效托底，同时央行购金、工 业白银消耗、ETF持续流入、投资消费等需求持续旺盛，供需缺口将长期存在，贵金属未来将延续上涨 趋势。 12月22日，受地缘政治局势紧张及市场降息预期升温双重推动，金价表现强势，不断刷新历史高点，日 内波动近80美元。截至A股收盘，COMEX黄金期货交投于4443美元/盎司附近，黄金ETF华夏 （518850）涨2.08%，黄金股ETF（159562）涨3.78%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）涨2.55%。 每日经济新闻 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 今天A股高开高走！截至收盘，沪指涨0.69%，深成指涨1.47%，创业板指涨2.23%。 沪深两市成交额1.86万亿，较上一个交易日放量1360亿。盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超2900只个股上涨，其中有105只个股涨停。海南 自贸区、贵金属、算力硬件等板块涨幅居前，医药商业、影视院线、教育、银行等板块跌幅居前。一起来看今天热点。 01 贵金属狂飙， 黄金、白银齐创新高！ 在降息预期和地缘政治紧张局势的双重推动下，贵金属集体强势， 现货黄金继续攀升，站上4400美元，刷新历史新高水平，伦敦白银现货站上69 美元，年内暴涨近140%，创下历史新高， 广期所钯期货主力合约涨停，日内涨7.00%，再创上市以来新高，为上市以来第三次涨停。 A股贵金属板块活跃，湖南白银、晓程科技涨超7%，西部黄金、中金黄金、山东黄金、四川黄金、赤峰黄金、招金黄金、湖南黄金等跟涨。 | | | 贵金属 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2944.78 (+118.25 +4.18%) | | | | 讨论 | 板块分析 | 成分股 | 相关E ...

Group 1 - As of January 1, 2025, the international gold price is reported at $2625.27 per ounce, while domestic gold prices are at 614.8 yuan per gram [1] - On December 22, 2025, the international gold market saw a significant increase, with spot gold prices surpassing the previous record of $4381.484 per ounce, reaching $4403.02 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 1% [3] - The domestic gold price also rose, with spot gold reaching 990 yuan per gram, reflecting an annual increase of over 67% [3] Group 2 - The physical gold market is experiencing heightened activity, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang raising their gold prices, with daily increases exceeding 0.2% [5] - Gold-related stocks are performing well, with Hong Kong's Lingbao Gold and China National Gold rising over 6%, and A-shares like Western Gold and Shandong Gold increasing nearly 5% [5] Group 3 - The gold bull market has been prominent this year, with London gold prices increasing over 68%, achieving more than 50 historical highs and a return rate exceeding 60%, making it one of the best-performing assets globally [6] - Factors driving this surge include the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, accelerated de-dollarization, and central banks' continuous gold purchases, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months [6] Group 4 - Institutions are optimistic about the long-term upward trend in gold prices, with forecasts suggesting potential new highs in January 2026, and price targets reaching $4700 per ounce [8] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 14% increase in gold prices by December 2026, potentially reaching $4900 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and ongoing demand for gold as a hedge [10]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, including gold and silver, have collectively surged, reaching new historical highs as of December 22, with significant price increases noted in both spot and futures markets [1][8]. Gold Market - Spot gold in London has surpassed the $4,400 per ounce mark, reaching $4,401.274 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 67% [1][10]. - COMEX gold has stabilized at $4,430.9 per ounce, also marking a new historical high [3][10]. Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices have been adjusted upwards, with Chow Tai Fook's gold price reaching 1,368 RMB per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 0.59% [5][12]. - Other brands such as Lao Miao and Chow Sang Sang have also reported prices exceeding 1,365 RMB per gram [5][12]. Silver Market - Both spot and futures silver prices have reached new historical highs, with London silver at $69.229 per ounce, showing a daily increase of 3.25%, and COMEX silver at $69.375 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.79% [6][14]. Platinum Market - Spot platinum has also seen significant gains, reaching $2,055.7 per ounce, marking the first time it has surpassed $2,000 per ounce since 2008, with a year-to-date increase of over 127% [6][14]. Market Analysis - CITIC Securities indicates that the unexpected cooling of the U.S. November CPI has led to an upward revision of market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, contributing to the strength of precious metals [7][15]. - Galaxy Futures notes that the Bank of Japan's cautious stance on future monetary policy has weakened the yen, alleviating potential global liquidity tightening pressures, while U.S. inflation data has unexpectedly shown moderation, reinforcing a trend of slowing economic growth [8][15]. - Galaxy Futures anticipates that gold and silver prices are likely to maintain a strong trend in the near term, although market liquidity changes during the holiday period may impact price volatility [8][15].

Group 1 - In 2025, major asset performance showed significant differentiation driven by three forces: financial cycle downturn, global order restructuring, and deepening industrial revolution. Gold prices surged over 60%, A-shares entered a structural bull market, while the bond market faced fluctuations and real estate prices continued to adjust [1][75]. Group 2 - The macro asset allocation framework for 2026 indicates a complex transition period. The strategic layer suggests maintaining a defensive stance due to the ongoing financial cycle downturn. The tactical layer anticipates a combination of economic recovery and financial easing, providing opportunities in commodities and equities [2][76]. Group 3 - The outlook for 2026 suggests that the stock market may experience a profit-driven rally supported by improved economic fundamentals and ample liquidity. Key focus areas include technology sectors like AI and semiconductors, high-quality export sectors, and renewable energy benefiting from anti-involution policies [3][77]. Group 4 - The bond market is expected to see a wide range of fluctuations with a moderate upward trend in yields, projected to be between 1.6% and 2.1%. The key factors influencing this include a rebound in PPI and alleviation of the "asset shortage" issue, with potential trading opportunities arising from small rate cuts early in the year [3][43][77]. Group 5 - In the commodities market, structural differentiation is expected to continue, with basic metals like copper and aluminum benefiting from global fiscal expansion and liquidity easing. Traditional energy sources like oil may perform relatively poorly due to the financial cycle downturn and supply pressures [3][59][77]. Group 6 - Gold is anticipated to enter a phase of high-level consolidation, with long-term support from weakened dollar credit and central bank gold purchases. However, short-term volatility may arise from price corrections and geopolitical factors [3][68][77].

兴业证券表示，展望2026年，美国宽松货币政策有望托举市场需求，俄乌冲突和解或带动非美需求修 复。美元逆全球化下多元货币崛起，支撑黄金中长期货币信用对冲逻辑强化。黄金对冲风险与美元信用 弱化，价格中枢有望抬升，美联储降息预期下实际利率下行。地缘政治不确定性持续，各国央行将继续 增持黄金。黄金股估值处于历史低位，随着金价上涨和盈利改善，估值有望修复，提供"戴维斯双击"机 会。 截至2025年12月22日14:04，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数(931238)强势上涨3.56%，成分股白银有色上 涨10.04%，中国黄金国际上涨7.65%，晓程科技上涨7.18%，老铺黄金，湖南白银等个股跟涨。黄金股 ETF(517520)上涨3.42%，最新价报2.06元。拉长时间看，截至2025年12月19日，黄金股ETF(517520)初 至今涨超87%。 消息面上，据智通财经，美国11月CPI低于预期，FED货币政策宽松预期升温。美国11 月未季调CPI 年 率录得2.7%，低于市场预期的3.1%。美国11月消费者价格涨幅低于预期，这让投资者看到了通胀压力 可能正在缓解的希望，从而为美联储货币宽松政策提供了更多想象空间。 此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in spot gold prices to historical highs is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which opens up medium-term upward potential for the gold sector [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The U.S. unemployment rate rose unexpectedly in November, while non-farm employment exceeded expectations, indicating a slowdown in economic growth, which supports further easing by the Federal Reserve [1] - Citigroup has raised its forecast for interest rate cuts in 2026 to three times, influenced by the White House's pressure due to rising debt interest payments and a dovish stance among most candidates for the Federal Reserve chair [1] - Historical data shows that during periods of interest rate cuts, gold, as a non-yielding asset, tends to appreciate significantly due to reduced opportunity costs [1] Group 2: Long-term Demand for Gold - The weakening independence of the Federal Reserve and the global trend of de-dollarization enhance the long-term investment value of gold [2] - The probability of stagflation in the U.S. is high, and major European economies are also facing fiscal deterioration and stagflation risks, making gold more attractive compared to other asset classes [2] - Emerging market central banks are increasing their gold reserves, which are currently below the global average, indicating strong demand for gold [2] Group 3: Performance of Gold Stocks - Gold stocks are experiencing high growth, with the top ten constituents of the CSI Gold Index showing a 62% growth rate in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising gold prices and increased production [3] - As of November 30, 2025, major gold mining companies have an average PE ratio of 11-15 times based on a gold price of $3,800 per ounce, indicating significant room for valuation recovery compared to the historical average of 20 times [3] - The influx of absolute return-oriented funds into gold and gold stocks is expected to provide stable support for the sector, reducing volatility and enhancing attractiveness [3] - The gold stock sector is currently in a phase of "macro policy benefits + long-term demand + strong fundamentals," suggesting a potential for continued performance improvement [3]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.20%, gaining 51 points to close at 25,742 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.89% [1] - China Duty Free Group (01880) surged by 12% as duty-free shopping on Hainan's first day of closure increased by 61% year-on-year [1] - Lithium stocks continued to rise, with Tianqi Lithium (09696) up over 5% due to expectations of resumption of production, and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) increasing by 4.84% [1] - Jiaxin International Resources (03858) rose over 10% to reach a new high, benefiting from a more than 220% increase in tungsten powder prices this year [1] - Spot gold reached a new historical high, with Goldman Sachs reaffirming a bullish outlook on gold, leading to significant gains in gold stocks such as Lingbao Gold (03330) up 6.8% and China Gold International (02099) up 6.2% [1] - The optical communication sector showed strong performance, with Huiju Technology (01729) rising over 13% due to breakthroughs in optical computing chips, and Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) increasing by 11.01% [1] - Chip stocks strengthened in early trading, with the National Integrated Circuit Investment Fund's third phase focusing on IC substrate fields, leading to a rise of over 7% for SMIC (00981) and 5% for Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) [1] - Pony.ai-W (02026) increased by over 9%, achieving single-vehicle profitability in Guangzhou, with two models of its seventh-generation vehicle now in production [1] Group 2 - Guoxia Technology (02655) surged over 16% as the company enters a new phase of global development, focusing on deepening "AI+" core technology research in energy storage [2] - WanGuo Gold Group (03939) rose nearly 7%, with its subsidiary Jinling Mining expected to become a world-class gold mine [3] - Goldwind Technology (02208) increased by nearly 5% as domestic wind turbine bidding prices recovered, with institutions optimistic about the profitability recovery of wind turbine manufacturers [4] - Four new stocks listed all fell below their issue prices, with Impression Dahongpao (02695) dropping 25%, Mingji Hospital (02581) down 42%, and Huazhi Biotechnology-B (02396) declining over 8% [4]

具体走势上，金价自周初开于4299.43美元/盎司，并基本上每日都是震荡走盘，先行于周二录得当周低 点4271.65美元，之后回升走强，于周四录得当周高点4374.14美元，并再度陷入震荡，于周五收于 4337.90美元，周振幅102.49美元，收涨38.47美元，涨幅0.89%。 影响上，先是受到之前交易日的回撤压力，以及地缘局势缓和，加上美联储主席候选人博弈加剧，哈塞 特面临特朗普身边高层反对，减弱了未来更加宽松政策的预期前景，打压金价震荡走低录得当周低点； 黄金市场上周：国际黄金震荡收涨，波幅相对前周有所收窄，并仍处于趋势线压力下方，暗示仍有回落 走低调整的风险，但目前走势仍处于5-10周均线上方，布林带仍倾向向上，基本面降息周期也未结束， 故此，短期虽有调整，但方向仍是看涨。 之后受到支撑买盘，以及美国10月零售销售月率和美国11月失业率上升等，强化了美联储未来降息的预 期，推动金价止跌并反弹走强，但多头难以持稳，周尾再度陷入获利了结和震荡调整格局，最终震荡收 官。 展望本周周一(12月22日)：国际黄金开盘先行走强，受美联储降息预期增强的提振，以及5日均线的买 盘推动；虽然美元指数早盘低开后直接走强 ...