11月28日，A股市场表现疲软，中证石化产业指数逆势上行，现涨约0.35%，成分股恒逸石化、兴 发集团、川发龙蟒等领涨。相关ETF方面，石化ETF（159731）近10个交易日有9个交易日获得资金净 流入，合计"吸金"2575万元。 国信证券提示，投资方向上可留意三大结构主线：一是宏观中期趋势下的资源和出海链；二是强产 业趋势下的科技"AI+"；三是政策驱动的"反内卷"及自主可控。同时，阶段性关注估值相对低位、存在 困境反转预期的食品饮料、化工和地产链上的优质公司。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行 业分布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.8%，石油石化行业占比为32.2%，有望充分受益于反内卷、调结 构和淘汰落后产能等政策。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Group 1: High-end Manufacturing and Security - The defense industry is entering a new cycle driven by both domestic demand and external potential, focusing on information technology, intelligent equipment, and emerging fields like military trade and deep space economy [2] - The machinery sector is expected to undergo a value reassessment and technological empowerment, with a focus on robotics and autonomous driving, alongside a push for core technology breakthroughs [2] - The electric power and new energy sectors are witnessing a new growth cycle, with lithium battery storage demand surging and the photovoltaic market stabilizing [2] - The home appliance industry is focusing on policy subsidies, technological transformation, and overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America [2] - The automotive sector is experiencing rapid technological advancements in smart driving and hybrid technologies, with a focus on export opportunities and collaboration with tech companies [2] Group 2: Real Estate and Banking - The real estate market is stabilizing, with key cities expected to see price stabilization driven by household balance sheet recovery and supportive policies [3] - The banking sector is entering a new profit cycle, with stable interest margins supporting long-term profitability, and a focus on undervalued shares and quality city commercial banks [4] Group 3: Securities and Insurance - The securities industry is benefiting from wealth management trends, with a focus on stable earnings and international expansion as a long-term narrative [5] - The insurance sector is characterized by high elasticity, with investment-driven profit growth and a focus on regulatory compliance and risk management [6] Group 4: Construction and Chemicals - The construction industry is expected to stabilize with government debt management and new infrastructure projects, focusing on regional coordination and green development [10] - The chemical sector is entering a recovery phase, with a focus on high-quality enterprises and strategic investments in various chains [10][12] Group 5: Utilities and Environmental Protection - The utilities sector is seeing steady growth in electricity demand, with a focus on high-dividend investments in water and coal power [13] - The environmental protection sector is benefiting from policy adjustments and technological advancements, with a focus on improving profitability in water and waste management [16] Group 6: Capital Markets and Financial Innovation - The capital market is exploring new paths for empowering inclusive finance, focusing on small and micro-enterprise support and rural revitalization [21] - The green certificate market is expected to grow significantly, driven by policy support and increasing demand for renewable energy [22] Group 7: E-commerce and Retail - The retail sector is experiencing structural changes driven by AI, with a focus on rational competition and the globalization of Chinese brands [23] Group 8: Bonds and Financial Engineering - The convertible bond market is expected to see continued growth, driven by demand for fixed income and equity market expectations [25] - The quantitative investment sector is gaining traction, with a focus on unique strategies and the development of fixed income products [27]

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced fluctuations, with mixed performance observed across the market [1][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.26, up by 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to 12875.19 [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included light industry manufacturing (up 1.09%), basic chemicals (up 1.01%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (up 0.90%) [2] - Conversely, sectors such as media and retail showed declines, with the media sector down by 1.40% and retail down by 1.20% [2] Concept Indices - Notable concept indices included organic silicon (up 3.29%), new technology stocks (up 2.12%), and sodium-ion batteries (up 1.99%) [2][4] - Underperforming concepts included the Hainan Free Trade Zone and cultivated diamonds, which saw declines of 2.65% and 1.67% respectively [2][4] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain cautious due to ongoing uncertainties in the overseas environment, with a notable shift towards risk aversion among investors [5] - Positive factors supporting market growth include sustained investment interest in AI and new energy sectors, as well as domestic policies aimed at improving the business environment [5] Regulatory Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission is addressing issues related to price competition in various industries, aiming to establish standards to mitigate disorderly pricing practices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: On the evening of November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management may be shifting, and key figures might turn dovish in the next two weeks. Attention should be paid to the speeches of key Fed voting members and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic: The internal driving force remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may bring marginal benefits to Q4 infrastructure investment. The LPR has remained stable since May, indicating that the central bank may not be in a hurry to further relax policies in the short term. New and second - hand housing sales have rebounded month - on - month, land supply has increased, but land transactions remain low. The demand and production capacity of real - estate front - end and back - end physical work have declined month - on - month [8]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, a hawkish Fed October meeting minutes, and strong September non - farm payroll data, the December rate - cut expectation was initially suppressed, and the US dollar index rose. Global equity sectors and base metals like copper were under pressure. However, the New York Fed President's dovish speech on Friday boosted the December rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in Q4. With the market sentiment lifted, short - term risk appetite may improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to allocate stocks, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The New York Fed President's speech on November 21st hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, and the Fed's expectation management may shift. Key figures may turn dovish in the next two weeks. Focus on key Fed voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic Macro: The issuance of policy - based financial instruments, special bonds, and debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure investment. The LPR has been stable, suggesting no urgent need for short - term policy relaxation. Housing sales have rebounded, but land transactions are low, and real - estate physical work demand and capacity have declined [8]. - Asset Views: Fed's mixed signals initially pressured the December rate - cut expectation and boosted the US dollar index. The New York Fed President's speech later changed the situation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in Q4 and look for low - price allocation opportunities in stocks, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock Index Futures: Hotspots have limited persistence. Wait for the main line. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on incremental funds [9]. - Stock Index Options: The market is gradually dominated by long - term factors. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on option market liquidity [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Short - term bond market disturbances exist. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on the implementation of monetary policies [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on US fundamentals, Fed policies, and global equity market trends [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the rate of freight decline in September [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel and Iron Ore: The off - season fundamentals are lackluster, and the iron ore price remains resilient. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on special bond issuance, steel exports, iron production, and other factors [9]. - Coke: The cost is decreasing, and there is a strong expectation of price cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - Coking Coal: Coal mines are accumulating inventory, and the market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - Silicon Iron: Market confidence is low, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - Manganese Silicon: Inventory pressure is high, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on cost prices and foreign quotes [9]. - Glass: Cold - repair is uncertain, and the supply - demand improvement is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on spot sales [9]. - Soda Ash: Production is flat, and spot transactions are weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on soda ash inventory [9]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The Fed's rate - cut expectation is fluctuating, and the copper price is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on supply disruptions, domestic policies, and Fed policies [9]. - Alumina: The oversupply situation persists, and the price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on ore production and electrolytic aluminum production [9]. - Aluminum: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - Zinc: The export window is open, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply [9]. - Lead: The delivery of LME lead has slowed down, and the lead price may stop falling. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on supply disruptions and battery exports [9]. - Nickel: Environmental issues in Indonesian MHP production are causing price fluctuations. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on macro - geopolitical changes and Indonesian policies [9]. - Stainless Steel: The rebound of nickel price has driven the recovery of the stainless - steel market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on Indonesian policies and demand growth [9]. - Tin: Market sentiment has improved, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [9]. - Industrial Silicon: The oversupply pressure remains, and the silicon price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on supply - side production resumption and policy changes [9]. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations are fluctuating, and the polysilicon price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on supply - side production resumption and domestic photovoltaic policies [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The demand expectation has boosted the lithium price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical premiums are fluctuating, and supply pressure persists. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitics [11]. - LPG: Supply is relatively tight, and the basis is at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - Asphalt: The price is oscillating around 3000. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on sanctions and supply disruptions [11]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on geopolitics and crude oil prices [11]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on crude oil prices [11]. - Methanol: The shutdown progress is rapid, and the price may rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - energy and overseas shutdown dynamics [11]. - Urea: Inventory has significantly decreased, and the sentiment is bullish. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on enterprise inventory reduction [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price center is mainly adjusted widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and trade frictions [11]. - PX: The cost is average, and the supply - demand pattern is okay. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and aromatics blending for oil [11]. - PTA: The basis is strong, and the profit is slightly repaired. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes [11]. - Short - Fiber: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on downstream yarn - mill purchasing and peak - season demand [11]. - Bottle - Chip: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is stagnant. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new - device commissioning [11]. - Propylene: The spot is strong, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic macro - situation [11]. - PP: The fundamental pressure remains, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro - situation [11]. - Plastic: The oil price has fallen, and the maintenance support is limited. The short - term judgment is a weakly volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro - situation [11]. - Styrene: The oil - blending narrative has faded, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [11]. - PVC: High inventory is suppressing the price, and it may be linked to production cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - Caustic Soda: The value is low, and the supply - demand is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on market sentiment, production, and demand [11]. - Oils and Fats: Market sentiment has stabilized, and the price may continue to be weakly bullish. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [11]. - Protein Meal: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the M15 spread is narrowing. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and trade frictions [11]. - Corn/Starch: The supply - demand is temporarily tight, and the price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on demand, macro - situation, and weather [11]. - Live Pigs: The live - pig spot price is weak, and the main contract rebounds with reduced positions. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - Natural Rubber: The impact of floods in the production area needs further observation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price is oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations [11]. - Cotton: There is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and the price is oscillating in the short term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on demand and inventory [11]. - Sugar: In the long - term, the driving force is downward, but the cost provides short - term support. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on imports and Brazilian production [11]. - Pulp: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the futures logic for near - and far - term contracts is different. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quotes [11]. - Offset Paper: The raw material price has fallen, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill production [11]. - Logs: The price of logs has fallen, and it is in a low - valuation area. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on shipping volume and sales volume [11].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors - The report focuses on market performance, market sentiment, and capital flow analysis - The report includes detailed statistics on market indices, industry performance, and concept themes[2][6][7][9] - The report provides data on daily limit-up and limit-down stocks, as well as the sealing rate and continuous board rate[12][15] - The report includes information on financing and securities lending balances, ETF premiums and discounts, and block trading discounts[17][21][24] - The report also covers institutional attention and the Dragon and Tiger list, detailing the net inflow and outflow of institutional seats and Northbound funds[28][34][35]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.29% at 3875.26 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 12875.19 points. The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index also saw declines after early gains, with the ChiNext Index down 0.44% and the STAR 50 Index down 0.33% [3][6] - The total market turnover was 1.72 trillion, a decrease of 4.1% from the previous trading day, indicating a marginal decline in market activity [3][6] Sector Performance - The leading sectors included cyclical industries such as basic chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, light manufacturing, coal, banking, and utilities, with respective increases of 1.22%, 1.06%, 1.04%, 1.00%, 0.52%, and 0.47%. The lithium battery electrolyte index surged by 6.25% [6] - Major companies in the packaging paper sector announced price increases for their products, with cultural paper prices rising by 200 yuan/ton and packaging paper prices increasing by around 50 yuan/ton [6] - The technology sector showed relative weakness, with the media index dropping 1.39%, reflecting potential profit-taking pressures after recent rebounds in tech growth stocks [6][7] Bond Market Analysis - The government bond futures market exhibited a mixed performance, with the 10-year contract closing down 0.06% at 107.895 yuan, while the 2-year contract rose 0.01% to 102.390 yuan [10] - The interbank market maintained a stable and slightly loose liquidity environment, with the central bank conducting a net liquidity injection of 564 billion yuan through reverse repos [10] Commodity Market Insights - The South China commodity index rose by 0.36%, driven by strong performance in precious metals, particularly platinum, which saw a first-day increase of 6.25% [10][11] - The agricultural sector saw price increases in consumer products like eggs and palm oil, attributed to seasonal demand and previous price declines [11] Investment Themes - Recent investment themes include high dividend yield stocks for defensive positioning, AI applications driven by major tech firms, and consumer sectors benefiting from currency appreciation and market style shifts [12] - The report suggests a cautious approach to the market, focusing on low-valuation cyclical stocks and high-dividend defensive sectors while awaiting adjustments in the tech sector [7][12]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% on November 27, with 13 industries experiencing gains, led by light industry manufacturing and basic chemicals, which increased by 1.09% and 1.01% respectively [1] - The total net outflow of capital from the two markets was 21.827 billion yuan, with six industries seeing net inflows, primarily in light industry manufacturing, which had a net inflow of 590 million yuan [1] Basic Chemicals Industry - The basic chemicals industry saw a rise of 1.01% with a total net inflow of 206 million yuan, comprising 404 stocks, of which 274 rose and 115 fell [2] - Notable stocks with significant net inflows included Daoming Optics with 185 million yuan, Wanhua Chemical with 153 million yuan, and Yongtai Technology with 112 million yuan [2] - The industry also had stocks with significant net outflows, including Guofeng New Materials with a net outflow of 162 million yuan and Kaimete Gas with 130 million yuan [2][4] Capital Flow in Basic Chemicals - The top stocks in terms of capital inflow included: - Daoming Optics: +10.02%, turnover rate 4.87%, net inflow 185.29 million yuan - Wanhua Chemical: +3.45%, turnover rate 1.21%, net inflow 152.59 million yuan - Yongtai Technology: +1.51%, turnover rate 12.85%, net inflow 111.69 million yuan [2] - The top stocks in terms of capital outflow included: - Guofeng New Materials: -9.99%, turnover rate 22.38%, net outflow 162.03 million yuan - Kaimete Gas: -4.19%, turnover rate 11.65%, net outflow 130.78 million yuan - Duofluor: 0.00%, turnover rate 14.58%, net outflow 119.59 million yuan [4]

Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 27, 2025, the A-share market saw significant gains in the basic chemical, petroleum and petrochemical, and coal sectors, with increases of 1.01%, 0.90%, and 0.80% respectively [1][4] - The overall market performance indicates a recovery trend, particularly in cyclical industries such as non-ferrous metals, steel, coal, and petrochemicals, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 2: Policy and Industry Developments - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has expressed opposition to the zero or negative processing fees in the copper smelting industry, calling for global action to address this unsustainable structural contradiction [2] - Recent government initiatives include a joint issuance of a growth support plan for the petrochemical industry, which emphasizes the renovation of old facilities and the development of coal-to-oil and gas projects [2] - The National Energy Administration has released guidelines to promote the integration of coal and new energy, encouraging innovation in carbon-based fuels and biodegradable materials [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The "anti-involution" measures in the chemical industry are expected to provide a reference for other sub-industries, potentially leading to a new round of supply-side reforms and optimization of the supply-demand structure [3] - Leading companies in the chemical sector are anticipated to gain market share due to improved management practices and energy consumption control [3] - ETFs tracking energy and materials indices are gaining attention, indicating a growing interest in these sectors among investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant activity with 63 stocks hitting the daily limit up, highlighting a strong interest in specific sectors, particularly flu-related stocks and retail companies [1] Group 1: Flu-Related Stocks - Guangji Pharmaceutical achieved a four-day limit up streak, indicating strong market confidence in flu-related stocks [1] - Haiwang Biological also saw a two-day limit up, further emphasizing the positive sentiment in the flu-related sector [1] - Yue Wannianqing recorded a two-day limit up, contributing to the overall performance of flu-related stocks [1] Group 2: Retail Stocks - Maoye Commercial experienced a three-day limit up, showcasing robust performance in the retail sector [1] - Guangbai Co. also had a two-day limit up, reflecting positive trends in retail stocks [1] Group 3: Other Notable Stocks - Jinfu Technology and Xinjin Road both achieved a four-day limit up, with Jinfu focusing on wire and cable, and Xinjin in the chemical sector [1] - ST Yatai and Hai Xin Food both recorded a three-day limit up, with ST Yatai in chemicals and Hai Xin in prepared foods [1] - Wantong Development had a two-day limit up, operating in both the chip and real estate sectors [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.26 points, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12875.19 points, down 0.25%. The ChiNext Index and the STAR Market 50 Index both experienced declines of 0.44% and 0.33%, respectively [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 2789 stocks rose, accounting for 51.33%, while 2447 stocks fell, and 197 stocks remained flat. There were 63 stocks that hit the daily limit up, and 14 stocks hit the limit down [1] Top Performing Stocks - The leading sectors for stocks hitting the daily limit up included Electronics, Basic Chemicals, and Power Equipment, with 10, 8, and 7 stocks respectively [1] - Notable stocks with consecutive limit up days include Guangji Pharmaceutical and Jinfutech, both achieving 4 consecutive limit up days [1] - Jialong Co. had the highest closing limit up order volume at 60.59 million shares, followed by Maoye Commercial and Xueqi Electric with 45.71 million shares and 36.44 million shares, respectively [1] Stock Data Summary - **Xueqi Electric**: Closed at 16.52 CNY, with a turnover rate of 22.71% and a limit up order volume of 3643.88 thousand shares, amounting to 6019.69 million CNY [2] - **Maoye Commercial**: Closed at 5.59 CNY, with a turnover rate of 0.42% and a limit up order volume of 4571.09 thousand shares, amounting to 2555.24 million CNY [2] - **Annie Co.**: Closed at 9.42 CNY, with a turnover rate of 25.10% and a limit up order volume of 2169.76 thousand shares, amounting to 2043.91 million CNY [2] - **Jialong Co.**: Closed at 3.06 CNY, with a turnover rate of 4.92% and a limit up order volume of 6058.98 thousand shares, amounting to 1854.05 million CNY [2] Industry Insights - The Electronics sector had significant representation among limit up stocks, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Basic Chemicals and Power Equipment also showed robust performance, suggesting potential growth opportunities in these industries [1]