每周思考总第664期 《 压不住的入市热情 》 申明： 因合规考虑，自2025年4月21日后，暂停更新展示历史观点回溯模拟净值图。 本文表述观点，仅代表作者发稿当时的个人想法与思考笔记，仅供读者参考而不作为任何投资 建议。作者保留根据市场环境、新信息等适度修正观点的权利。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现，2024年全年累计收益53.69%，2025年全年累计收益10.62%。 2026年至1月25日累计收益-2.22% 基本面上，国内经济反弹有限、全球避险资产如期升温。 国内方面，上周国家统计局进一步披 露25年12月的工业生产、社会零售及房地产销售数据，除工业生产出现季节性反弹外，社零与地产销 售都基本维持在相对低位，虽然一线城市地产销售在12月略有放量但也在1月重回弱势状态，这与当 前国内财政刺激政策相对稳健的总体政策方向吻合；海外方面， 避险资产国际金价单周涨幅8.31%， 印证我们上周提示"全球大类资产配置依旧是避险组合优先原则不变" ，而美国总统特朗普在格林兰 军事占领的TACO后，再次转向伊朗军事施压，令国际油价再次触底回升，伴随上述消息反复下的美 元信用及不确定性继续推升避险 ...

石化周报 中东地缘风声再起，建议关注后续演变 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | 9.83 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 推荐 | | 600938.SH | 中国海油 | 31.40 | 2.90 | 2.60 | 2.68 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 推荐 | | 600028.SH | 中国石化 | 6.15 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 15 | 20 | 18 | 推荐 | | 603619.SH | 中曼石油 | 28.23 | 1.76 | 1.48 | 1.99 | 16 | 19 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603393.S ...

相对走势 石化周报 中东地缘风声再起，建议关注后续演变 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | 9.83 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 推荐 | | 600938.SH | 中国海油 | 31.40 | 2.90 | 2.60 | 2.68 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 推荐 | | 600028.SH | 中国石化 | 6.15 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 15 | 20 | 18 | 推荐 | | 603619.SH | 中曼石油 | 28.23 | 1.76 | 1.48 | 1.99 | 16 | 19 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603 ...

再看我们大A股，画风截然不同，上演了一场精彩的 "自己玩自己的"行情。 简单说就是：指数没咋动，个股嗨翻天！ 看看这极致分化：代表小盘股的万得微盘股指数一周狂拉5.25%！中证500、中证2000指数也涨超4%。 科创50涨了2.62%。全是中小创和科技的天下。 过去一周，全球市场有点"冷"。 道琼斯跌了0.53%，标普500跌了0.35%。连科技股风向标纳斯达克也撑不住了，微跌0.06%。原因就俩 字：分歧。AI赚钱的故事能不能马上兑现？美联储到底啥时候降息？大佬们心里也没底，资金开始犹 豫。 欧洲更惨。德国DAX指数大跌1.57%，法国跌了1.40%。贸易摩擦的阴影和经济增长的担忧，让投资者 选择先跑为敬。 不过，世界也不是全绿。巴西股市暴涨8.53%，一枝独秀！韩国、台湾股市也逆势收红，涨了3.08%和 1.76%，显示出亚洲的韧性。 展望下周，A股的"分裂"行情可能继续！ 利好方面，政策暖风还在吹，1月制造业PMI数据即将公布，如果超预期，能提振信心。商业航天、机 器人等题材事件不断，热度难退。中小盘指数的技术图形也还是多头排列。 反观大盘权重，彻底哑火。上证指数勉强涨了0.84%，沪深300指数反而 ...

Core Insights - The market has shown signs of "cooling down," with major broad indices exhibiting divergence. The weight indices, such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300, have fallen below the 20-day moving average, entering a phase of consolidation, while most growth indices remain above the 20-day line, indicating continued upward potential [1][4][54] - The current market state is characterized by "strong small caps and weak large caps," with weight indices in a consolidation phase and growth indices remaining active. This trend is expected to persist in the short term, while the overall nature of a "systematic slow bull" remains unchanged for the quarter [1][4][54] Market Overview - The market experienced a "cooling down" period from January 19 to January 23, 2026, with a noticeable decline in trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83%, while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 fell by 1.54% and 0.62%, respectively, both breaking below the 20-day moving average. In contrast, growth indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National 2000 saw increases of 4.34%, 2.89%, and 3.33%, respectively, continuing to reach new highs in this bull market [2][12][53] - Sector performance showed that 24 out of 31 primary industries rose, with cyclical sectors like construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, steel, and real estate experiencing significant gains of 9.23%, 7.71%, 7.31%, and 5.21%, respectively. Meanwhile, the financial sector weakened, with banks and non-banking financials declining by 2.70% and 1.45% [15][53] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease compared to the previous week. The main futures contracts showed a premium, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors [21][27] - The latest margin trading balance was 2.69 trillion yuan, down by 0.24% from the previous week. In terms of ETFs, the most significant inflow was seen in the non-ferrous metals sector, while the coal sector experienced the largest outflow [27][32] Valuation Insights - The dynamic valuation model indicates that the valuation levels of major indices have increased. As of January 23, 2026, the PE-TTM for the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.1, at the 97.03 percentile, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 33.31, at the 87.97 percentile. The ChiNext Index had a PE-TTM of 42.98, at the 35.39 percentile [44][45] Strategic Recommendations - Based on the assessment of "market cooling, index divergence, and the dominance of growth," it is recommended to maintain medium-term positions without fear of short-term fluctuations and to participate in the upcoming market momentum. Short-term positions should be cautious of volatility and avoid chasing highs [5][55] - The strategy includes balancing medium-term positions across sectors with high economic prospects and relatively reasonable stock prices, particularly in the "two electric and non-mechanical" sectors (electronics, new energy, chemicals, non-banking, and machinery). Additionally, consider the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National 2000 indices for relative returns [5][55]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown signs of "cooling," with major indices displaying divergence, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83% while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 fell by 1.54% and 0.62%, respectively, both breaking below the 20-day moving average[12] - Growth indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 have performed better, rising by 4.34%, 2.89%, and 3.33%, respectively, continuing to reach new highs in this bull market[12] Sector Performance - Among the 31 sectors, 24 saw gains while 7 experienced declines, indicating a trend of lagging sectors catching up, with cyclical industries like construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, and real estate rising by 9.23%, 7.71%, and 5.21% respectively[15] - The financial sector weakened, with banks and non-bank financials declining by 2.70% and 1.45% respectively, while the previously strong communication sector showed signs of reversal, dropping by 2.12%[15] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 2.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a decline in market activity[22] - The margin trading balance fell by 0.24% to 2.69 trillion yuan, with the most significant net inflow seen in the non-ferrous ETF, amounting to 19.5 billion yuan[27] Economic Indicators - China's GDP for 2025 exceeded 140 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with industrial output increasing by 5.9% and service sector growth at 5.4%[49] - The People's Bank of China lowered the re-lending and re-discount rates by 0.25%, with new rates set at 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% for different terms[49] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a balanced mid-term portfolio in sectors with high economic activity and reasonable valuations, particularly in the "two electricity, chemical, non-bank, and machinery" sectors, while also considering lower-positioned media and computer stocks[53] - Investors are advised to focus on the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 for relative returns, especially in a "broad-based rally" scenario[53]

以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 专利摘要：本申请提供一种生化单元中厌氧/好氧工艺的诊断方法及设备，涉及石油石化污水处理领 域。该方法包括：根据生化单元进水和出水的化学需氧量、生化需氧量和总氮，分别计算化学需氧量去 除率、生化需氧量去除率与总氮去除率；基于化学需氧量去除率、生化需氧量去除率与总氮去除率，获 取工艺处理效率；判断所述工艺处理效率是否小于第一阈值，若是，获取各反应器的工艺参数，判断所 述工艺参数与预设参数范围是否相匹配，若否，则根据不匹配的工艺参数获取诊断结果并输出。本申请 的方法，精确判断调整后对工艺单元的影响以及工艺单元的真实运行状态，实现对工艺设计缺陷的排 查，并通过分析工艺参数给出优化方向，节省调整时长，提高工作效率。 通过天眼查大数据分析，中国石油天然气股份有限公司共对外投资了1297家企业，参与招投标项目443 次；财产线索方面有商标信息105条，专利信息48144条；此外企业还拥有行政许可168个。 数据来源：天眼查APP 证券之星消息，根据天眼查APP数据显示中国石油（601857）新获得一 ...

[Table_Page] 金融工程|量化投资专题 2026 年 1 月 23 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 业绩预告与行业表现呈现分化 量化基本面系列之三 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： （如无特别说明，本文数据均来源于 wind，数据截至 2026/01/23） 2025 年业绩预告披露类型 | 业绩预告类型 | 公司数量 | 占比 | | --- | --- | --- | | 不确定 | 5 | 0.7% | | 扭亏 | 58 | 8.1% | | 略减 | 17 | 2.4% | | 略增 | 45 | 6.3% | | 续亏 | 247 | 34.4% | | 续盈 | 6 | 0.8% | | 预减 | 64 | 8.9% | | 预增 | 180 | 25.1% | | 首亏 | 95 | 13.2% | | 积极 | 289 | 40.3% | 数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心 2025 年业绩预告/快报/正式财报 | | 业绩预告/快报/ | 业绩预告/快报/ | 归母净利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申万一级行业 | ...

人民币升值下的行业机会 ——策略专题研究 分析师：邓宇林、包承超 研究助理：龚嫣然 报告日期：2026年1月23日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 02 摘要 ➢ 风险提示：1）全球地缘政治出现重大变化，导致全球市场风险偏好急剧变化。2）市场流动性超预期变化。3）历史数据不代表未来。 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 ➢ 1、人民币升值对于A股有何影响？——在人民币升值周期内，无论人民币是否为被动升值，全A指数普遍呈现上行趋势。行业上，人 民币升值对于多数行业股价均有正向影响，其中钢铁、房地产、轻工和交运等行业靠前。风格上，多数区间成长风格强于价值风格， 大盘和小盘之间无明显占优风格。 ➢ 2、如何寻找人民币升值下的行业机会？——基本面视角。直接来看，人民币升值会降低原材料成本和债务成本，间接来看，人民币升 值会提升人民币购买力。1）进口依赖度高且海外营收占比相对较低的行业，人民币升值或能降低原材料成本，如有色、钢铁、煤炭和 农林牧渔。2）美元借款体量大的行业，人民币升值或能降低债务成本，如电子、交运、建筑装饰和家电。3）对于可选消费行业，人 民币升值或能带动业绩增长。 ➢ 3、 ...

人民财讯1月23日电，中国石化（600028）1月23日公布2025年生产经营业绩提示性数据，原油产量3970 万吨，同比增0.2%，；天然气产量412.53亿立方米，同比增4.02%。原油加工量2.50亿吨，同比降 0.78%。境内成品油总经销量1.78亿吨，同比降2.88%。以上数据未经审计，以年报披露为准。 ...