"各行业的尾部风险在结构上被低估了，"塔勒布表示，"风险并非小幅回调，而是大幅下跌。" 不过，塔勒布认为市场涨势在短期内仍可能延续。他表示，更大的问题在于潜在下跌的幅度。 有"黑天鹅之父"之称的纳西姆・塔勒布（Nassim Taleb）向投资者发出警告：随着AI驱动的行情进入更 脆弱阶段，软件行业需准备迎接不断加剧的波动与潜在破产。 在这位畅销书《黑天鹅》的作者看来，市场正在低估结构性风险，同时高估当前AI龙头企业的韧性。 他提醒，尽管AI将创造巨额利润，但历史的先驱者往往会被后来者取代。 "有人会在AI领域赚到大钱，"塔勒布在迈阿密由Universa Investments主办的SeaFair活动间隙接受采访时 表示，但如今构成AI交易主力的这批公司，未必能笑到最后。 他指出，随着技术不稳定性、激烈竞争与地缘政治变局重塑行业，软件领域部分公司很可能破产。 标普500指数周一下跌约1%，这是近期一系列抛售行情中的最新一次。投资者正面临关税不确定性，以 及两种相互矛盾的叙事所引发的对AI板块的焦虑。 一方面，投资者担心，随着编码难度降低，快速发展的AI工具将颠覆以订阅服务为主的软件公司。与 此同时，争相开发与搭 ...

当地时间周一，美国三大股指集体收跌。其中，道指下跌1.66%，标普500指数下跌1.04%，纳指跌幅为1.13%。国际金价突破每盎司5200美元整数关口， 为三周来最高水平，银价大涨超5%。 个股方面，丹麦药企诺和诺德周一公布的数据显示，在临床试验中，该公司新一代减肥药的减重效果，不及竞争对手礼来的相关产品。华尔街知名投行杰 富瑞的分析认为，这一试验结果令诺和诺德新一代减肥药的商业前景面临很大不确定性，根据此前的预测，到2030年这款药的销售额约占诺和诺德总营收 的15%-25%。受以上消息影响，诺和诺德在哥本哈根交易的股票价格周一大跌超16%，当天，礼来股价则上涨近4.9%。 当地时间周一，在美国海关停止征收被最高法院裁定违法的关税前夕，美国总统特朗普再度发出新的关税威胁，全球贸易摩擦可能再起，打击市场风险偏 好。另外，人工智能引发的软件板块抛售潮仍在延续，拖累美国三大股指当天集体收跌。其中，道指下跌1.66%，标普500指数下跌1.04%，纳指跌幅为 1.13%。 核心业务遭AI冲击 23日IBM股价大跌超13% 公司方面，美国人工智能初创公司Anthropic日前表示，其Claude Code产品的新功 ...

周二(2月24日)亚洲股市小幅走高，未受美国市场走弱的明显拖累。美国股市下跌主要源于投资者担忧 人工智能对企业利润的冲击；而在亚洲，投资者押注本地区的芯片制造商将通过为AI建设潮提供关键 供给而受益。 韩国股市上涨1.5%，资金涌入芯片股，投资者将其视为AI供应链的"挖铲人"。中国股市在春节假期后 复市也走强，带动MSCI亚太指数抹去早前跌幅，转而上涨0.2%。 周二，韩国SK海力士股价上涨4.2%，并触及每股100万韩元这一心理关口；台积电上涨3.2%；三星电子 上涨2.3%，实现九连涨并创历史新高。 标普500指数期货上涨0.3%，显示在周一现货指数下跌后，市场情绪有所回稳。随着风险偏好改善，黄 金在连续四天上涨后回落；美国国债也回吐上一交易日的涨幅——此前投资者因避险需求买入传统避险 资产。比特币则交投于65,000美元下方。 2026年以来，亚洲股市表现突出，MSCI地区指数年内上涨12%，而标普500指数基本持平。这也使得亚 洲指数相对美国基准指数录得"有记录以来最强"的年度开局。 在美国，软件公司成为跌幅最深的板块之一；但保险经纪、私募信贷公司、网络安全，甚至房地产服务 类股票，也都卷入所谓的"A ...

【光大宏观】假期海外地缘局势动荡，全球权益市场多数上涨，港股能源、半导体、软件表现偏强；大宗商品涨 跌分化，金银油齐涨，美元走强压制港股，但人民币升值及特朗普访华，总体提振节后权益市场的风险偏好。 美国较强的通胀和经济数据对于降息预期带来掣肘，短期降息交易较为波折～ 【光大宏观】假期海外地缘局势动荡，全球权益市场多数上涨，港股能源、半导体、软件表现偏强；大宗商品涨 跌分化，金银油齐涨，美元走强压制港股，但人民币升值及特朗普访华，总体提振节后权益市场的风险偏好。 ...

Group 1 - Asian software stocks faced downward pressure on Tuesday, continuing the decline seen in the US market, driven by renewed investor anxiety over the impact of AI technology on white-collar salary structures [1][3] - In Hong Kong, the software sector was particularly weak, with Kingdee International experiencing a nearly 10% drop, while AI company SenseTime fell over 6% and Kingsoft dropped about 4%, significantly affecting market sentiment [1] - Japanese IT service giant NEC and Oracle Japan both saw a 6% decline, while SoftBank Group fell by 5%. Australian software stocks also struggled, with Xero down 3%, Technology One down 4%, and WiseTech Global down 3% [3] Group 2 - The recent decline was ignited by a report from Citrini Research warning that technological changes could lead to a competitive decrease in white-collar salaries, causing significant drops in stocks of software giants like Datadog, CrowdStrike, and Zscaler, which fell over 9% in a single day [3] - This is not the first instance of AI-related concerns affecting the market; earlier in February, anxiety over corporate AI capital expenditure plans led to a widespread decline in Asian tech stocks [3] - Current AI anxieties, combined with geopolitical and tariff risks, are triggering a typical flight to safety, lowering global bond yields and increasing gold prices, with expectations of continued volatility in specific tech sub-industries as new AI tools are released [3]

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,082, up 2.53% for the day and 5.66% year-to-date, driven by strong performances from major stocks like Tencent and Hong Kong Exchanges [3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 3.34%, indicating a renewed interest in technology stocks [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of approximately HKD 20.2 billion, highlighting a shift towards "core assets + technology" allocation [3] - The offshore RMB strengthened, breaking through 6.89, nearing a three-year high, amidst calls from the Ministry of Commerce for the U.S. to lift unilateral tariffs [3] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 2.29%, with a year-to-date rise of 8.12% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index rose by 2.77%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 3.03% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index saw a 2.25% increase, with a significant year-to-date rise of 23.95% [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index gained 0.90%, with a year-to-date increase of 9.27% [2] U.S. Market Reaction - Major U.S. indices, including the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, all fell over 1%, influenced by renewed tariff uncertainties and concerns over AI impacts [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped over 5 basis points to 4.02%, marking a near three-month low as investors sought safe-haven assets [3] - Gold prices surged over 2%, while silver rose approximately 4%, reflecting a flight to safety amid market volatility [3] Investment Sentiment - The report indicates a cautious sentiment among investors due to the resurgence of tariff risks and AI-related fears, leading to significant sell-offs in high-valuation sectors [3] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies has weakened investor confidence in U.S. assets, contributing to a decline in the U.S. dollar index over two consecutive days [3]

此外，主题投资机构Citrini Research发布了一份题为《2028年6月情景分析》的研究报告。报告在开篇 明确指出，这不是预测，而是一场思想实验。其设定更接近一次极端压力测试：假设到2028年，AI在 白领岗位中加速渗透，部分岗位被替代，收入下降、消费收缩，依赖软件系统运行的信贷资产风险上 升，最终拖累经济进入收缩区间。 消息面上，隔夜美股大型科技股多数收跌，软件股再遭猛烈抛售。美国AI初创公司Anthropic宣布， 其"Claude Code"工具新增对COBOL语言系统的支持能力，可自动化完成老旧系统现代化过程中复杂的 代码分析、逻辑梳理与迁移规划工作，大幅降低人工介入成本与周期。COBOL(面向商业的通用语言) 由美国通用汽车公司于20世纪50年代末主导开发，长期作为金融、政务等关键领域核心系统语言。 AI冲击波卷土重来，港股应用软件股普遍下挫，截至发稿，新纽科技(09600)跌9.52%，报0.285港元； 聚水潭(06687)跌9.37%，报19.54港元；浪潮数字企业(00596)跌7.9%，报3.73港元。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global financial markets are affected by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions, tariff policies, and corporate earnings, leading to significant fluctuations in various asset classes. For example, the US stock market declined due to Trump's tariff plan and EU's suspension of the trade - agreement approval, while the precious metals market rose due to increased risk - aversion [5][6]. - The energy market is influenced by the Iran - US nuclear negotiation, with expectations of increased Iranian oil supply putting downward pressure on oil prices [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - **Stock Markets**: US major indices (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) fell, with IBM and American Express leading the decline. European indices (DAX, CAC40, FTSE 100) also closed lower. The reasons include Trump's tariff plan and EU's suspension of trade - agreement approval [5]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold and silver futures rose due to increased risk - aversion from geopolitical tensions, tariff policy changes, and other factors [6]. - **Energy**: US crude oil and Brent oil futures fell as the Iran - US nuclear negotiation showed signs of progress, increasing the expectation of more Iranian oil supply [7]. - **Base Metals**: Most London base metals declined, except for LME tin which rose [7]. Important News Macro News - Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for European routes dropped 2.1%. The US will stop collecting certain illegal tariffs. There is still a risk of US military strikes against Iran. India postponed a trade delegation plan. China is assessing the impact of US tariff rulings and urges the US to cancel unilateral tariffs. The EU suspended the approval of a trade agreement with the US. The Trump administration is considering new "national security tariffs" [9][11]. Energy Futures - Saudi Aramco sold condensate oil. Methanol supply in Southeast Asia is restricted due to planned maintenance. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have different forecasts for oil prices, with Goldman Sachs raising price forecasts for Q4 2026 and 2027, and Morgan Stanley expecting a short - term increase followed by a decline [14][16][18]. Metal Futures - The US energy storage market is expected to grow 21%. Lebanon may sell part of its gold reserves. UBS is positive on gold, with a target price of $6200/ounce [20][21]. Black - Series Futures - China's iron ore arrivals decreased, but global iron ore shipments increased. Vietnam plans to build a large - scale steel plant. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of Chinese pig - iron enterprises decreased, and inventory increased [23][25]. Agricultural Products Futures - Malaysian palm oil production and exports decreased in February. Argentina's soybean moisture conditions improved, and the production forecast remains unchanged [27][28]. Financial Markets Financial - 143 companies have submitted IPO applications in the Hong Kong stock market in 2026. Deloitte predicts a better performance in the Hong Kong IPO market this year [30]. Industry - Payment transactions on Chinese New Year's Eve increased. The real - estate market may show more stabilization signals. China's AI governance system is maturing [31]. Overseas - The US may adjust tariff application methods and continue steel - aluminum tariffs. The Fed has about 75 basis - points to reach the neutral rate. India plans to invest $200 billion in AI. The Australian central bank may tighten policy. UK unemployment reached a new high [32][34][35]. International Stock Markets - US and European stock markets rose, while the Japanese market fell. High - end companies made significant stock - position adjustments. The UK may adjust accounting rules to attract Chinese companies. Australia simplifies corporate governance rules. Some companies announced major transactions or reported good earnings [36][38][41]. Commodities - Precious metals, oil, and most base metals futures fell due to factors such as progress in the Iran - US nuclear negotiation and reduced risk - aversion [43]. Bonds - US Treasury yields had mixed changes. Japanese bonds rose, and the 2029 fiscal - year bond issuance may increase [45]. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index rose slightly, and most non - US currencies fell [46]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - **Economic Data**: Include Japan's trade balance, UK's inflation and housing - price index, US's new - home construction, and other data [48]. - **Events**: New Zealand's central - bank rate decision, European Central Bank officials' speeches, and the Fed's release of meeting minutes [50]. - **Market Closures**: Chinese, South Korean, and Vietnamese stock markets are closed due to the Spring Festival [52].

2026.02.24 本文字数：2349，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 眼下，美股投资者正被迫直面并压力测试一个曾被认为不可能发生的情景：若科技巨头与AI头部云服 务商持续走弱，是否会同时拖垮美国股市与美国经济？ 今年以来，美股整体走势已经落后于全球主要市场，纳指和标普500指数已经完全回吐年内涨幅。投资 者对 "七大科技巨头"（Magnificent Seven）前景感到越发不安，微软年内跌幅超17%，亚马逊下跌超 10%。周一，Meta成为第三家跌入技术性熊市的科技巨头。 与此同时，行业板块波动剧烈，软件、财富管理、房地产服务等部门的股票，因担忧受AI颠覆性冲击 而遭遇重挫。 不只是简单的风格切换 新年伊始，一批此前落后的板块领涨美股，而 "七大科技巨头"则因市场担忧其巨额AI投入承压。 本月早些时候，因AI创新可能冲击其核心业务。软件股的抛售蔓延至整个科技板块，投资者抛售所有 可能被AI技术替代的公司股票。FactSet数据显示，标普500能源板块今年以来大涨超22%，在11个板块 中领跑；必需消费板块上涨12.7%，工业板块上涨13.1%。与之相对，科技权重极高的信息技术板块下 跌4. ...

1、2月16日出版的第4期《求是》杂志发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平的重要文章《当前经济工作 的重点任务》。文章强调，2026年经济工作头绪多，要抓住关键、纲举目张。坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。统筹促消费 和扩投资，用好我国超大规模市场优势。深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划，扩大优质商品和服务供 给，优化"两新"政策实施，清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放文旅等服务消费潜力。 【隔夜外盘】 马年A股首个交易日，三大指数集体高开，沪指涨1.15%，报4129.13点，深成指涨1.52%，报14313.86点，创业板指涨 1.7%，报3331.79点，科创50指数涨1.57%，报1493.45点。沪深两市合计成交额303.15亿元，全市场近5000只个股上涨。 盘面上，黄金、石油板块领涨，宇树机器人、能源金属、CPO、特高压、消费电子、半导体概念股活跃；免税店、短剧游 戏、seedance题材走弱。 美股三大指数收盘均跌超1%，道指跌821点，跌幅达1.66%，纳指跌1.13%，标普500指数跌1.04%。 科技股普遍承压，微软跌超3%，特斯拉、META跌近3%，亚马逊跌超2 ...