Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" with an expected industry index increase of -5% to 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The market is currently in a downtrend, with a focus on when the profit effect will turn positive. The current profit effect is around -1% [2][10]. - The report suggests maintaining a neutral position until the 30-day moving average of the wind All A index is breached, considering the low valuation levels [4][10]. - The industry configuration model recommends focusing on "dilemma reversal" sectors, particularly in healthcare and consumer sectors related to export chains such as light industry and home appliances [3][10]. - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, emphasizing domestic substitution in the fields of information technology and AI chips [3][10]. - Despite a significant drop on Friday, the banking sector, which is still in an upward trend, remains worthy of attention [3][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The wind All A index is currently in a downtrend, with the 20-day moving average at 4908 and the 120-day moving average at 5092.8, indicating a distance of -3.63% [2][9]. - The market's current environment is characterized by uncertainty due to upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and the release of April import and export data [4][10]. Valuation Metrics - The overall PE ratio of the wind All A index is around the 50th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB ratio is around the 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low level [3][10]. Positioning Recommendations - The report advises a 50% allocation in absolute return products based on the wind All A index as the main stock allocation [3][10].

联合研究丨组合推荐 [Table_Title] 金融制造行业 5 月投资观点及金股推荐 research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长江金融行业（地产、非银、银行）和制造行业（电新、机械、军工、轻工、环保）2025 年 5 月投资观点及金股推荐。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 于博 赵智勇 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490517110001 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BRP550 王贺嘉 蔡方羿 徐科 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490516060001 SAC：S0490517090001 SFC：BUX462 SFC：BUV463 SFC：BUV415 刘义 吴一凡 马祥云 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521120002 SFC：BUV416 SFC：BUV596 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 13 %% %% %% %% ...

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 2025 年 05 月 05 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：金融工程-因子跟踪周 报 ： Beta 、换手率因子表现较好 -20250504》 2025-05-04 2 《金融工程：金融工程-哪些行业进 入高估区域？——估值与基金重仓股配 置监控 2025-05-03》 2025-05-03 3 《金融工程：金融工程-净利润断层 本周超额基准 0.92%》 2025-05-03 金融工程 证券研究报告 量化择时周报：突破压力位前保持中性 突破压力位前保持中性 上周周报(20250427)认为：全 A 指数的 30 日均线构成压力位，但考虑到估 值不高，建议在压力位突破前维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 维持原状。 市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 0.84%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 0.08%，沪深 300 下跌 0.43%，上证 50 下跌 0.59%;上周中信一级行业中， 表现较强行业包括传媒、计算机，传媒上涨 2.86%，综合金融、房地产 ...

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研究报告称，截至4月30日上午，A股上市公司2024年年报和2025年 一季报业绩基本披露完毕(披露率99.8%)。受政策效果持续显现以及科技创新趋势驱动，整体A股盈利增 速转正。大类行业中信息技术、消费服务增速相对领先，TMT、资源品和中游制造业边际改善。推荐 关注业绩增速相对较高、自由现金流边际改善的领域。 招商证券主要观点如下： 利润端：一季度上市公司业绩边际改善。根据一致可比口径和整体法测算，A股2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1 单季度净利润增速依次为3.7%/-15.7%/3.2%，非金融石油石化2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度净利润增速 为-10.5%/-50.2%/4.5%。 收入端：全部A股单季度收入增速较24Q4放缓，但仍高于24Q3，延续改善。全部A股 2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度收入增速依次为-2.0%/1.4%/-0.3%，非金融石油石化板块 2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度收入增速依次为-2.9%/1.2%/0.5%。海外营收增幅扩大，海外营收占收入 的比例持续提升。 25年一季度A股盈利回暖主要受 ...

Market Overview - On April 29, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index also fell by 0.05%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.13%[3]. - The trading volume on April 30 was 1.04 trillion CNY, a decrease of approximately 40 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[1]. Sector Performance - Industries such as beauty care, machinery, media, and light industry saw significant gains, while public utilities, oil, coal, and social services experienced notable declines[1]. - The majority of sectors showed limited upward movement, indicating a weak market structure with most sectors declining over the past five days[1]. Capital Flow - On April 29, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange were 4.695 billion CNY, while net inflows into the Shenzhen Stock Exchange were 4.105 billion CNY[4]. - The top three sectors for capital inflow were IT services, general equipment, and automotive parts, while the top three sectors for outflow were electricity, securities, and liquor[4]. Policy and Economic Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an additional 81 billion CNY in special long-term bonds to support the consumption upgrade program[5]. - The construction of the electricity spot market is set to accelerate, with specific deadlines for various regions to transition to formal operations by 2025 and 2026[6][7]. Industry Insights - Canalys predicts that by 2025, the penetration rate of L2 and above functionalities in the Chinese market will reach 62%, a significant increase from 2024[12]. - The issuance of new funds has surpassed 300 billion CNY this year, with nearly half allocated to equity funds, indicating a recovery in the active equity fund issuance market[15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the recommended stocks in the consumer sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the upcoming months [9][10][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights nine advantageous sectors within the consumer industry, including agriculture, retail, social services, automotive, textile and apparel, light industry, food, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals, with specific stock recommendations for each sector [5][9]. - The recommended stocks are expected to benefit from various growth drivers, including market expansion, product innovation, and favorable policy support [9][10]. Summary by Sector Agriculture - Recommended Stock: Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (中宠股份) - Focus on pet food industry with strong growth in domestic brands and global capacity expansion. Expected net profit for 2025-2026 is 440 million and 570 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 36 and 28 times [13]. Retail - Recommended Stock: Xiaoshangpin City (小商品城) - Benefits from the high demand for Yiwu small commodities and successful transformation into a foreign trade service provider. Expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.75, 0.95, and 1.14 CNY, maintaining a "Buy" rating [14]. Social Services - Recommended Stock: Keri International (科锐国际) - Positive outlook due to cyclical recovery and AI integration in operations. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 287 million, 399 million, and 523 million CNY, with PE ratios of 23, 17, and 13 times [15]. Automotive - Recommended Stock: Xiaomi Group (小米集团-W) - Anticipated growth driven by stable orders and new model launches. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 35.404 billion, 51.653 billion, and 65.531 billion CNY [16]. Textile and Apparel - Recommended Stock: Hailan Home (海澜之家) - Expected to benefit from e-commerce expansion and international growth. Projected net profit for 2024-2026 is 2.04 billion, 2.57 billion, and 3.43 billion CNY, with a PE ratio of 19, 15, and 11 times [17][18]. Light Industry - Recommended Stock: Dengkang Oral Care (登康口腔) - Growth driven by e-commerce and product innovation. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 200 million, 260 million, and 330 million CNY, with PE ratios of 38, 30, and 23 times [19]. Food - Recommended Stock: Wufangzhai (五芳斋) - Leading market position in the rice dumpling sector with expansion into new channels. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 181 million, 207 million, and 224 million CNY, with PE ratios of 22, 19, and 18 times [19]. Home Appliances - Recommended Stock: Gree Electric Appliances (格力电器) - Strong brand and cost advantages in the air conditioning market. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 35.519 billion, 38.452 billion, and 42.086 billion CNY, with low PE ratios of 7.34, 6.78, and 6.20 times [20]. Pharmaceuticals - Recommended Stock: Kangchen Pharmaceutical (康辰药业) - Focus on innovative drug development with promising products in the pipeline. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 135 million, 216 million, and 286 million CNY [21][22].

Core Insights - The global trade friction index for February stands at 106, indicating a high level of trade tensions, with a year-on-year decrease in the monetary value of trade friction measures by 19.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 2% [1] - The United States is identified as the largest variable affecting the global trade friction index, with the highest indices reported among the monitored countries [2] Group 1: Global Trade Friction Index - The global trade friction index is at a high level of 106 for February [1] - The monetary value of global trade friction measures has decreased by 19.9% year-on-year and 2% month-on-month [1] - The top three countries with the highest trade friction indices are the United States, the European Union, and South Africa [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - The main industries contributing to trade friction include electronics, light industry, transportation equipment, non-ferrous metals, and machinery [1] - A total of 47 import and export tariff measures were reported, along with 12 trade remedy investigations and 130 notifications to the WTO regarding technical barriers to trade and sanitary and phytosanitary measures [1] Group 3: China-related Trade Friction - The trade friction index related to China is at a high level of 152, which is an increase of 17 points from the previous month [1] - The monetary value of trade friction measures involving China has decreased by 22.8% year-on-year but increased by 13.9% month-on-month [1] - Key industries facing trade friction related to China include electronics, light industry, machinery, transportation equipment, textiles, and chemicals [1] Group 4: U.S. Trade Policies - The U.S. has consistently implemented the most trade friction measures, including tariffs, controls, and sanctions, for eight consecutive months [2] - The U.S. has initiated investigations and increased tariffs on copper and aluminum imports, as well as reinstating tariffs on certain steel products, reflecting a "America First" trade policy [2] - These actions are seen as undermining international trade order and disrupting normal business operations and consumer life in various countries [2]

Group 1: Employment and Economic Stability - The central government emphasizes the need to improve the policy toolbox for stabilizing employment and the economy, with a focus on high-quality development [1] - Measures include encouraging companies to maintain employment, increasing vocational training, and providing financial support for job creation [2] - The government has allocated 667 billion yuan in central employment subsidy funds to support policy implementation [2] Group 2: Support for Foreign Trade Enterprises - The government plans to implement tailored support for foreign trade enterprises to help them navigate external risks [3] - Initiatives include increasing financial support, reducing costs for struggling companies, and expanding export credit insurance coverage [3] - The government aims to facilitate the integration of domestic and foreign trade, enhancing support for key industries [3] Group 3: Consumer Spending and Investment - Initiatives to boost consumer spending include expanding service consumption and promoting automobile sales [4][5] - The government has allocated over 1.6 trillion yuan for consumption upgrades and plans to introduce additional financial support for service sectors [5] - There is a focus on enhancing infrastructure for consumption and increasing private investment through new policy financial tools [6] Group 4: Financial Support for the Real Economy - The central bank is committed to maintaining reasonable growth in monetary credit and optimizing the credit structure to support the real economy [7] - Measures include potential interest rate cuts and the introduction of new structural monetary policy tools to support employment and growth [7] - The government expresses confidence in achieving economic and social development goals despite international uncertainties [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) of China is initiating the 2025 National Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Technology Equipment Recommendation work in the industrial and information sectors, focusing on five categories of technologies aimed at enhancing energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions [1] Group 1: Key Industry Areas - The first category includes energy conservation and carbon reduction technologies in key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, machinery, light industry, textiles, and electronics, emphasizing process innovation and optimization technologies like short-process manufacturing [1] - Technologies for energy efficiency improvement in data centers, communication base stations, and communication rooms are also included, such as collaborative applications of computing power and energy, efficient cooling, and green intelligent computing system solutions [1] Group 2: Low-Carbon Transition Technologies - The second category focuses on low-carbon transition technologies, including clean low-carbon hydrogen production and application, efficient energy storage, and industrial green microgrid technologies for renewable energy consumption [1] - It also encompasses efficient utilization of waste heat and pressure, energy substitution, and multi-energy complementary technologies [1] Group 3: Industrial Carbon Reduction Technologies - The third category addresses industrial carbon reduction technologies, which include low-carbon raw material fuel substitution, lifecycle carbon emission reduction, carbon capture and high-value transformation, carbon emission accounting and monitoring, and non-CO2 greenhouse gas reduction and substitution technologies [1] Group 4: Digital and Green Transformation Technologies - The fourth category involves digital and green collaborative transformation technologies, such as digital energy and carbon management that integrate big data, artificial intelligence, industrial internet, and 5G technologies for energy consumption and carbon emission data collection, intelligent analysis, and system optimization [1] Group 5: Efficient Energy-Saving Equipment - The fifth category includes efficient energy-saving equipment that meets or exceeds the first-level energy efficiency standards of relevant national standards, covering industrial mass-produced equipment like electric motors, transformers, industrial boilers, fans, volumetric air compressors, industrial refrigeration equipment, and heat pumps [1]

周四早盘冲高回落后窄幅震荡，多空围绕"关税跳空缺口"反复争夺。周四 A 股早盘出现冲高回落，市场一度出现快速下跌，但午盘企稳后维持窄幅 震荡，多空双方围绕"关税缺口"反复争夺。周四收盘距离所谓"对等关税"宣布前的跳空缺口 3319 点仅一步之遥，市场分歧有所加大，追涨意愿下降，但 A 股的修复行情仍然在延续。从中期角度来看，在中央汇金等三家国资开始增持，叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，市场已经迎来拐点。尽管 "对等关 税"的后续影响还存在一定不确定性，但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理，指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望：关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去，A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映，随着市场 情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，目前 A 股已经进入修复性回升。但修复过程并非一帆风顺，美国对全球范 围加征所谓"对等关税"的后续变化对中国和全球经济产生的影响目前仍存在较大不确定性，市场预期变化也存在反复。后市争议较大的仍然是对海外业务 依赖性较高的行业，如消费电子、CXO 等会受到"对等关税"多大程度的影响。确定性较高的是内需和 ...