1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various industries including chemicals, agriculture, energy, non - ferrous metals, and financial options. It provides price data, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for different commodities and financial instruments. For the stock market, it suggests considering non - silver large finance, non - ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors for investment [10][14][17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - On January 8, 2026, among domestic chemical products, prices of some products like coking coal, coke, and plastic increased, while others such as natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and PTA decreased. For example, coking coal rose from 1,164.00 to 1,215.00 with a 4.381% increase, and natural rubber dropped from 1,6180.00 to 16,135.00 with a - 0.278% decrease [4]. 3.2 Agriculture - **Sugar**: On January 7, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued its low - level rebound. With supply pressure from Brazil and India's potential over - production, but cost support in China, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate between 5200 - 5400 yuan. A strategy of high - selling and low - buying in this range is recommended [10]. - **Corn**: On January 7, corn futures prices broke through the previous trading range. With supply pressure and demand support coexisting, the short - term trend is strong, and investors can consider buying on dips, with support at 2230 yuan [10]. - **Peanuts**: On January 7, peanut futures prices oscillated narrowly. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [10]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price increase is mainly driven by sentiment and short - term stocking. It is expected to continue rising in the short - term but at a slower pace, and then gradually stabilize. The futures market is oscillating strongly, and the inter - month reverse spread should be held [10]. - **Cotton**: On January 7, cotton futures prices rose significantly. With strengthened supply reduction expectations and improved demand, the market is running strongly, but investors need to beware of short - term corrections, with support at 14800 - 14900 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term spot market for caustic soda is relatively stable, but the overall supply is in excess. The price is expected to weaken steadily, and the impact of market sentiment changes should be noted [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The port trade enterprise quotes for coking coal have risen, but the transaction volume is average. Coke's downward price expectation has decreased. The short - term trend is oscillating strongly [11]. - **Log**: On January 7, log futures prices broke through the previous pressure level. With a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, investors can consider buying on dips after the price correction, with support at 780 [12]. - **Pulp**: On January 7, pulp futures prices showed a high - level decline. With strong supply - side cost support and weak demand, the price is supported by cost but limited by demand. It is recommended to wait and see at the 5600 - yuan pressure level [12]. - **Double - offset Paper**: On January 7, double - offset paper futures prices oscillated downward. The market maintains a weak supply - demand balance. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with support at 4100 yuan and pressure at 4400 yuan [12]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: On January 7, copper prices were boosted by expectations of interest rate cuts and supply concerns. Aluminum prices are expected to be supported by policies in the long - term. However, on Wednesday, the prices of copper and aluminum showed a high - level decline, and investors need to beware of macro risks [13][14]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in excess, and the price rebound is driven by market sentiment. It is not advisable to chase the high price [14]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose at night. The spot market trading improved, and the prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upward trend may slow down [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: On Wednesday, ferroalloys followed the upward trend of coking coal and coke. With the improvement of the market atmosphere, they are expected to be strong in the short - term, and industrial selling hedging can wait and see [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On January 7, lithium carbonate futures prices fluctuated strongly. With potential supply increase and demand turning points, investors need to beware of high - level corrections and should be cautious when chasing the high price [14][16]. 3.5 Option Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 7, the three major A - share indexes rose slightly, but the stock index futures showed a mixed performance. For investors, trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell straddles to short volatility. The stock market may face profit - taking pressure in the short - term [16]. - **Investment Directions**: It is recommended to consider non - silver large finance, non - ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors such as storage chips, commercial aerospace, and AI applications. For ordinary investors, it is advisable to allocate a certain amount of long - term stock index futures contracts or broad - based ETFs, and then choose some industry ETFs or individual stocks to obtain excess returns [17][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in tin and nickel prices, with Shanghai tin dropping nearly 3% and Shanghai nickel falling over 5% [1] - Recent surges in precious and non-ferrous metals have led to substantial profit-taking in the market, creating strong selling pressure [1] - Both sectors experienced a collective sell-off in the afternoon, with Shanghai nickel leading the decline among non-ferrous metals [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.02% with a trading volume of 1,263.50 million shares and a transaction value of 22,566.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.56% compared to the previous trading day [1] - A total of 3,889 stocks rose, with 103 hitting the daily limit, while 1,453 stocks fell, including 5 hitting the lower limit [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - Defense and Military Industry: Increased by 4.17% with a transaction value of 2,049.82 billion yuan, up 16.74% from the previous day, led by Hailanxin with a rise of 20.00% [1] - Media: Increased by 1.86% with a transaction value of 686.02 billion yuan, up 6.64%, led by Yilv Media with a rise of 9.99% [1] - Real Estate: Increased by 1.83% with a transaction value of 291.21 billion yuan, up 22.41%, led by Daming City with a rise of 6.18% [1] Underperforming Industries - The worst-performing industries included: - Non-Bank Financial: Decreased by 2.32% with a transaction value of 682.58 billion yuan, down 2.41%, led by Hualin Securities with a drop of 9.84% [2] - Nonferrous Metals: Decreased by 1.61% with a transaction value of 1,329.14 billion yuan, down 23.58%, led by Zhongkuang Resources with a drop of 7.37% [2] - Banking: Decreased by 1.00% with a transaction value of 219.66 billion yuan, down 5.13%, led by Pudong Development Bank with a drop of 2.46% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a collective rise, with expectations for this trend to continue due to a favorable global environment for the industry [1][4]. Short-term Analysis - The resource, electricity, and non-ferrous metal sectors are benefiting from supply shortages under the "anti-involution" logic, as indicated by recent government documents highlighting the impact of "involution" on profit margins and sustainable development [1][4]. - The government has proposed three measures: 1. Establishing production capacity ceilings for major metals like copper, lead, and zinc to control new capacity [1][4]. 2. Merging and restructuring strategic metals to enhance industry concentration and control over the supply chain [1][4]. 3. Encouraging companies to shift towards personalized, high-value-added products while maintaining competition in deep processing industries [1][4]. Mid-term Outlook - Factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plans, market supply-demand imbalances, and advancements in electricity infrastructure are expected to positively influence the industry [1][4]. Long-term Perspective - The development of artificial intelligence (AI) relies heavily on computing power, with major countries like the U.S. and China increasing investments in computing centers. However, electricity shortages are limiting the growth of the AI industry [1][4]. - The demand for energy, electricity, and metals driven by AI computing centers has surpassed traditional supply-demand logic, intensifying electricity supply constraints and significantly increasing market demand for oil, gas, copper, and aluminum [1][4]. Future Trends - By 2026, the resource and non-ferrous metal sectors are expected to continue experiencing supply shortages, rising demand, stable prices, and profits concentrating upstream [2][5].

本报讯 （记者袁传玺）天眼查工商信息显示，近日，中铝绿材（文山）铝基新材料有限公司成立，注 册资本2.5亿元，经营范围为常用有色金属冶炼、有色金属铸造、有色金属压延加工、有色金属合金制 造、有色金属合金销售、高性能有色金属及合金材料销售。股东信息显示，该公司由中国铝业 （601600）旗下中铝（云南）绿色先进铝基材料有限公司全资持股。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply remains high while demand is sluggish, with costs rising during the dry - season. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 8865 - 9095. There are both positive factors like cost support and negative factors such as slow post - holiday demand recovery [3][6]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply production scheduling is decreasing, and overall demand shows a continuous decline. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 57110 - 59490. There are also positive and negative factors affecting the market [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 87,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 73,000 tons, a 5.19% decrease from the previous week, indicating persistent weak demand [3]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 557,000 tons, a 0.36% increase. Sample enterprise inventory was 202,400 tons, a 3.48% increase. Main port inventory was 140,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9794.9 yuan/ton, and cost support increased during the dry - season [3]. - **Basis**: On January 7th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 220 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Expectation**: Supply production scheduling is decreasing but remains high, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The 2605 contract is expected to trade in the 8865 - 9095 range [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 24,000 tons, a 5.13% decrease. The predicted production for January is 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Silicon wafer production shows short - term increases and medium - term potential pull - backs, while battery cell and component production continues to decline. Overall demand is in a state of continuous decline [8][9]. - **Cost**: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon material is 38,600 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 13,900 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On January 7th, the price of N - type dense material was 52,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 4800 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 306,000 tons, a 0.99% increase, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [11]. - **Expectation**: The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 57110 - 59490 [9]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - **Futures Closing Price**: Most contracts showed price increases, with the largest increase of 1.40% in the 12 - month contract [17]. - **Basis**: Most basis values decreased, with the 12 - month contract showing a significant change [17]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 10,799, a 1.05% increase [17]. - **Organosilicon**: DMC production decreased by 6.10%, while D4 price increased by 1.08%. The monthly DMC inventory increased by 21.18% [17]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.85%, and the import profit increased by 67.65% [17]. - **Spot Price**: Most spot prices remained unchanged [17]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 0.36%, and sample enterprise inventory increased by 3.48% [17]. - **Production/Operating Rate**: Overall production increased slightly, while the operating rate in Sichuan decreased significantly [17]. Polysilicon - **Silicon Wafer**: Most silicon wafer prices remained unchanged, and the weekly production increased by 5.74%, while the inventory decreased by 22.06% [19]. - **Futures Closing Price**: Most contracts showed price decreases, with the largest decrease of 2.56% in the 04 contract [19]. - **Basis**: All basis values decreased [19]. - **Battery Cell**: Most battery cell prices remained unchanged, and the export volume increased by 24.25% [19]. - **Component**: Most component prices remained unchanged, and the monthly production decreased by 17.48%, while the export volume increased by 5.54% [19]. - **Inventory**: Domestic inventory decreased by 51.73%, and European inventory decreased by 5.44% [19]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply decreased by 14.48%, and the consumption decreased by 10.37% [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that rising political risks, supply constraints, and steady demand are driving the continuous increase in non-ferrous metal prices, with expectations for a new commodity cycle driven by emerging fields like artificial intelligence (AI) by 2026 [1] - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities suggests that continued liquidity easing will benefit industrial metal prices in 2026, as supply-side constraints remain unresolved and numerous mining production cuts have occurred [1] - The demand from traditional industries shows resilience, while new sectors such as AI and energy storage are emerging, leading to an anticipated acceleration in the price center of industrial metals [1] Group 2 - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159233) aligns with the core holdings in the non-ferrous sector and industry trends, making it a stable tool for investment in this area [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF closely tracks the CSI All Index Free Cash Flow Index, which selects 100 listed companies with high free cash flow rates to reflect the overall performance of companies with strong cash flow generation capabilities [1] Group 3 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All Index Free Cash Flow Index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, SAIC Motor, Gree Electric Appliances, and others, collectively accounting for 53.78% of the index [2] - The listed stocks are part of the index constituents and do not imply specific recommendations [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a recent pullback in the Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876) after achieving a five-day consecutive rise, with a slight decline of 0.65% on January 8, 2023, prompting investors to see this as a buying opportunity [1] - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF has seen a net subscription of 64.2 million units, with a total net inflow of 140 million yuan over the past five days [1] - Key stocks in the ETF, particularly those related to commercial aerospace, have shown significant gains, with Yunnan Zhenye leading with over a 7% increase, followed by Steel Research High-Tech with over 4%, and several others exceeding 3% [1] Group 2 - As of December 2025, China's gold reserves are reported to be 74.15 million ounces, marking an increase of 30,000 ounces from the end of November, indicating the central bank's continuous accumulation of gold for the 14th consecutive month [3] - Global economic conditions, including stagflation and the U.S. deficit monetization, are expected to support a bullish trend for gold into 2026, which may also positively impact related nonferrous and strategic metals [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to adopt a dovish monetary policy, likely leading to gradual interest rate cuts, which would create a favorable environment for nonferrous metal prices [3] Group 3 - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF and its associated funds comprehensively cover various sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to different economic cycles [4] - The ETF's index includes precious metals (for hedging), strategic metals (for growth), and industrial metals (for recovery), providing a broad-based investment strategy [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The nickel market is in a game between the burden of real - world pressure and the narrative of cyclical transformation, with wide - range fluctuations. The stainless - steel market is dragged down by the real fundamentals, and the disk mainly plays on Indonesian policies [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For nickel futures, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 147,720, the trading volume is 1,132,256. For stainless - steel futures, the closing price of the main contract is 13,885, and the trading volume is 547,902 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: - In the nickel industry chain, the price of 1 imported nickel is 145,850, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 948, and the price of red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) is 55. In the stainless - steel aspect, the price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 13,900, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55 Inner Mongolia) is 8,200 [1]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [2]. - Indonesia's ESDM will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and will treat cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [2]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [4]. - Some Indonesian mining companies may face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government to reduce the fines [4]. 3.3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless - steel is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [4].

Group 1: Spring Market Dynamics - The spring market is characterized by a combination of policy expectations, liquidity easing, and an earnings vacuum period, creating a stage for market opportunities rather than being solely driven by seasonal factors [1] - The initiation of the spring market has been occurring earlier, with data showing that in the last five years, three instances saw the spring market start in December of the previous year, indicating a new market trend of "year-end sprint" [2] Group 2: Historical Performance - Historical data indicates that the spring market has varied in duration and performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing significant gains in various years, such as a 47.20% increase in 2015 and a projected 15.20% increase in 2024 [3] Group 3: External and Domestic Support - On the international front, reduced uncertainties, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar, are expected to enhance liquidity and attract foreign capital into the A-share market [4] - Domestically, a series of policy measures and early issuance of local government bonds are expected to provide strong support for economic recovery and market growth, with significant inflows into A-share ETFs indicating a favorable liquidity environment [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on three main sectors: - The technology sector, which is expected to benefit from policy support in areas like artificial intelligence and semiconductor industries [6] - The cyclical sector, particularly in renewable energy and high-end manufacturing, which is anticipated to gain from global economic recovery and domestic policy initiatives [6]