Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of aligning with the central government's directives and promoting high-quality economic and social development in Guangxi, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - The government work report is recognized for its comprehensive and objective summary of the previous year's work, addressing challenges and outlining clear strategies for the future, which is seen as a motivating and pragmatic document [2] - The focus is on leveraging opportunities such as the construction of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor and the development of ten modern manufacturing pillar industries to enhance the key metal industry in Hechi [3] Group 2 - There is a strong emphasis on the need for political responsibility and the integration of environmental protection with economic development, particularly in the context of the key metal industry [3][4] - The importance of fostering a correct view of performance and deepening strict governance of the Party is highlighted, with a call for balancing local and overall responsibilities [4] - The upcoming Spring Festival necessitates ensuring safety in transportation and the stability of essential goods and services, reflecting a commitment to improving the well-being of the community [4]

Group 1 - Industrial metals experienced a rebound after a significant drop, with domestic commodity futures showing a rise in alumina prices by over 1% [1] - Financial volatility is increasing, but supply and demand are supporting price floors; the Federal Reserve's direction remains towards interest rate cuts rather than hikes [1] - Recent trends indicate that copper and aluminum inventories have stabilized, with a slowdown in inventory accumulation and an increase in processing enterprise operating rates, suggesting improved acceptance of high prices by downstream companies [1] Group 2 - The CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) rose by 0.39% as of February 3, 2026, with notable increases in stocks such as Tungsten High-Tech (+4.98%), Electric Power Energy (+3.71%), and Zijin Mining (+3.36%) [1] - The CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index tracks 30 large-cap companies involved in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare earth metals, reflecting the overall performance of the industrial nonferrous metals sector [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index accounted for 55.71% of the index, including companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum [2]

Group 1 - The spot gold has rebounded after a correction, with an intraday increase of 4%, reaching $4844.07 per ounce [1] - Huajin Securities indicates that the cyclical sectors, such as non-ferrous metals, which have seen significant gains recently, are experiencing short-term adjustment pressure, but this is unlikely to be sustained [1] - The recent rise in demand for strategic resource reserves and AI-driven demand, combined with a decline in US dollar credit, suggests that non-ferrous metals will face challenges in maintaining adjustments [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) account for 49.87% of the index, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others [2] - The non-ferrous ETF Penghua (159880) closely tracks the National Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a rebound, with significant inflows into the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF, indicating a potential super cycle driven by the "AI leap" and "century change" narratives [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - On February 3, the non-ferrous sector saw a rebound, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) rising by 3% [1] - Over the past 20 trading days, the net inflow into the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has reached nearly 1.7 billion yuan, increasing its fund size to 2.59 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - China Galaxy Securities suggests capitalizing on the super cycle of non-ferrous metals, which is supported by the "AI technology revolution" and "global order reshaping" [1] - Historical data indicates that commodity cycles last long, typically 25-30 years, with upward trends lasting 8-10 years and downward trends lasting 15-20 years [1] - Institutions generally agree that the non-ferrous metal sector is likely to continue its bullish trend, with expectations of a bull market driven by monetary, demand, and supply factors by 2026 [1] Group 3: ETF Coverage - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of indices, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to various market cycles [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The latest released US ISM Manufacturing PMI in January soared from the previous month's 47.9 to 52.6, far exceeding the expected 48.5, indicating a substantial expansion in the US manufacturing sector [7][8]. - The sharp decline in precious metals and non - ferrous metals was mainly due to concerns over the overseas AI bubble and the unexpected adjustment of the Fed's replacement candidates. However, there may still be buying opportunities at relatively safe low - points, especially for copper in the long - term [9][11]. - The short - term outlook for stock index futures is expected to stabilize and recover. The end of the "Spring Rally" was affected by policy adjustments and external risks, but there is still a possibility of a second - wave rally [13]. Summary by Relevant Categories 1. Metals Gold and Silver - Yesterday, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their decline. The sharp drop was mainly triggered by the fall of US stocks, extreme trading convergence in precious metals, and the potential hawkish stance of the new Fed Chairman. In the short - term, it is recommended to consider option strategies mainly based on selling options, and the internal - external spread of silver may converge. The support level for gold is lowered to $4275 per ounce, and for silver, it remains at $70 per ounce [9][10]. Copper - The price of copper was weak due to pessimistic sentiment. The US manufacturing expansion and production changes in major copper - producing regions such as Zambia, Chile, and Canada affected the market. The copper trend strength was neutral [24][25][26]. Zinc - Zinc was in a range - bound oscillation. News such as the delay of the US employment report and the potential Fed Chairman's plan to shrink the balance sheet influenced the market. The zinc trend strength was neutral [27][28][29]. Lead - The decrease in LME lead inventory limited the price decline. Positive US manufacturing data and the delay of the US employment report were important news. The lead trend strength was neutral [30][31]. Tin - Tin was in a phase of decline and consolidation. The price of tin dropped significantly, and there were various macro and industry news such as Iran - US negotiations. The tin trend strength was bearish [33][34][35]. Aluminum - Aluminum was waiting for market repair. Alumina had a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum. There were various data changes in the aluminum market, and relevant news such as Iran - US nuclear negotiations and India - US trade agreements affected the market. The aluminum trend strength was bullish, while alumina and aluminum alloy were neutral [37][38]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum was slightly recovering in the oscillation, and palladium had strong resilience but was still in low - level oscillation. The market was affected by factors such as the delay of the US employment report and the expansion of the US manufacturing sector. The trend strength of both was neutral [39][40][43]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The marginal influence on nickel was dominated by macro sentiment, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions. For stainless steel, there were frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and nickel - iron was expected to support the price. The trend strength of both was neutral [46][47][52]. 2. Energy - related Coal - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both were in high - level oscillations. The coking coal market had issues such as a high auction non - sale rate, and the price of both was affected by factors like the adjustment of the CCI metallurgical coal index [74][75]. - **Steam Coal**: The supply - demand was in a weak balance, and the coal price before the Spring Festival was expected to be stable. The market was affected by factors such as port inventory changes and potential production cuts in Indonesia [79][80]. 3. Chemicals PX, PTA, and MEG - PX followed the sharp decline of oil prices and was in an interval - oscillation market. PTA was also in an interval - oscillation market with a bearish view on the monthly spread. MEG was in a unilateral interval - oscillation market with large supply pressure. The market was affected by factors such as the restart of domestic and overseas devices, changes in the supply - demand of PTA and MEG, and the decline of the overall commodity market [85][90][91]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber was in a weak - oscillation trend. The inventory in Qingdao increased, and the production and sales of tires were affected by the approaching Spring Festival. Synthetic rubber was in a high - level decline, influenced by factors such as the reduction of geopolitical conflicts and the approaching boundary of valuation indicators [93][96][98]. LLDPE and PP - LLDPE had a narrowing import profit, limited offers, and weakened oil price support. PP was greatly affected by cost, and its profit might be repaired. The market was affected by factors such as the decline of raw material prices, changes in supply and demand, and the profit of production devices [99][100][103]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda was supported by cost, and the future expectation was strong. Although the high - inventory situation made the spot market weak before the Spring Festival, the market's expectation of future supply reduction was strong. The trend strength was bullish [105][107][110]. Pulp - Pulp was in a wide - range oscillation. The market demand was weak, and the high - inventory and weak - demand contradiction restricted the market trend. The trend strength was neutral [111][113][114]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets was stable. The market demand was limited, and attention should be paid to the winter - storage policy of manufacturers in high - inventory areas. The trend strength was neutral [116][117]. Methanol - Methanol was oscillating with support. The macro - sentiment was weak, but the international energy price provided support. The supply - demand pattern was weak in the short - term, and the inventory was high. The trend strength was neutral [119][121][122]. Urea - Urea was in short - term horizontal consolidation. The macro - sentiment was weak, and there was a small - scale state reserve release. The fundamental pressure and support levels were clear. The trend strength was neutral [124][125][126]. Styrene - Styrene was in a relatively strong oscillation. The market was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and the future supply - demand situation and the restart of parking devices should be noted. The trend strength was neutral [127][128]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changed little. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be weakly stable and oscillating. The trend strength was neutral [130][132]. LPG and Propylene - LPG was strongly affected by short - term geopolitical factors, and the fundamental driving force was downward. Propylene's upward driving force was weakening, and attention should be paid to cost - end disturbances. The market was affected by factors such as price changes, device maintenance plans, and changes in shipping volume. The trend strength of both was neutral [134][138][139]. PVC - PVC had a strong sentiment, but the fundamentals did not improve significantly. Although there were some supporting factors in the short - term, the high - production and high - inventory structure was difficult to change, and attention should be paid to the future supply reduction situation. The trend strength was neutral [142][143][144]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil had a sharp decline and continued in a high - volatility state. Low - sulfur fuel oil mainly followed the decline, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continued to shrink. The trend strength of both was bearish [147]. 4. Others Logs - Logs had a slight upward exploration. The price and trading volume of log contracts changed, and the market was affected by factors such as the manufacturing PMI. The trend strength was bullish [81][83][84]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index (European line) was in an oscillating market. The market was affected by factors such as the weakening of commodity sentiment, the easing of the geopolitical situation, and changes in shipping capacity. Different contracts had different strategies. The trend strength was neutral [149][160][162]. Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Resin - Both short - fiber and bottle - grade resin were in short - term oscillations after the release of emotional risks. The market was affected by factors such as price changes of upstream polyester raw materials and production and sales of products. The trend strength of both was neutral [165][166]. Offset Printing Paper - For offset printing paper, it was recommended to hold short positions and conduct a 3 - 4 reverse spread. The price in the spot market was stable, and the trading atmosphere was weak. The trend strength was bearish [168][169][170]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene was in a relatively strong oscillation. The inventory in some ports decreased, and the price changed. The trend strength was neutral [173][174][175]. Fats and Oils - Palm oil was affected by the ebb of macro - sentiment and the attenuation of geopolitical influence, and soybean oil was in high - level oscillation adjustment. The market was affected by factors such as the decline of international crude oil prices, the expected high yield of South American soybeans, and relevant policies in Indonesia. The trend strength of both was neutral [177][178][179]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Soybean meal oscillated following the sentiment of the commodity market, and the state - reserve auction of soybeans had a positive impact. The market was affected by factors such as the decline of international crude oil prices and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans. The trend strength of both was neutral [183][185]. Corn - The decline range of corn was limited. The price in the spot market changed, and the futures price was affected by the overall market situation. The trend strength was neutral [186][187][188]. Sugar - Sugar was in a weak operation. The global sugar supply - demand situation changed, and attention should be paid to policies such as China's import of syrup and premixed powder. The trend strength was bearish [189][190][191]. Cotton - Cotton was expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The spot trading of cotton was average, the price of cotton yarn was stable, and the ICE cotton futures declined. The trend strength was bullish [193][194][197]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs weakened. The prices of futures and spot contracts changed, and the market was affected by factors such as the prices of feed and related products. The trend strength was bearish [199][200]. Hogs - The pre - festival price increase of hogs was less than expected, and the pressure increased. The prices of spot and futures contracts changed, and the trend strength was bearish [202][203][204]. Peanuts - Peanuts were in a weak - oscillating state. The spot price was stable, and the futures price and trading volume changed. The trend strength was neutral [206][207][208].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Huatai-PineBridge ETF (159652) in the non-ferrous metals sector, which opened with a gain of 3.96% at 1.891 yuan [1] - The ETF's major holdings include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.36%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 3.12%, Northern Rare Earth by 2.41%, and others, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1] - The ETF has a performance benchmark based on the CSI Sub-Industry Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index, managed by Huatai-PineBridge Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 89.27% since its inception on January 16, 2023, and a monthly return of 13.04% [1] Group 2 - Notable stock movements include Ganfeng Lithium increasing by 2.91%, while Shandong Gold experienced a decline of 7.33%, and Zhongjin Gold fell by 8.16%, reflecting volatility within the sector [1] - The article provides a snapshot of the ETF's performance and its key holdings, which are crucial for investors looking at opportunities in the non-ferrous metals market [1]

每经AI快讯，2月3日，有色金属股集体反弹。截至发稿，五矿资源(01208.HK)涨6.09%、洛阳钼业 (03993.HK)涨5.73%、招金矿业(01818.HK)涨5.12%、赤峰黄金(06693.HK)涨4.74%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on February 3, 2026 [1][3][4] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 100400, LME price is 12448, and the ratio is 8.26; March price in China is 98280, LME price is 12508, and the ratio is 8.10. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 7.88, with a profit of - 731.31, and the profit for spot export is - 3180.64 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 25010, LME price is 3266, and the ratio is 7.66; March price in China is 24530, LME price is 3272, and the ratio is 5.14. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.29, with a profit of - 2060.16 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 23700, LME price is 2977, and the ratio is 7.96; March price in China is 23005, LME price is 2999, and the ratio is 7.99. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.36, with a profit of - 1179.22 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 134750, LME price is 16431, and the ratio is 8.20. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.04, with a profit of - 1560.37 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 16625, LME price is 1913, and the ratio is 8.67; March price in China is 16760, LME price is 1961, and the ratio is 12.76. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.54, with a profit of 247.02 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot month are - 4590, - 4890, - 4600, and - 4550 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 618, 1134, 1659, and 2183 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot month are - 1270, - 1255, - 1220, and - 1265 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 232, 370, 508, and 646 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot month are - 1635, - 1665, - 1575, and - 1535 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 234, 370, 505, and 640 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot month are - 460, - 380, - 315, and - 280 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, and 531 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot month are - 10260, - 10510, - 10190, and - 10140 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - 1 contracts is 9190, and the theoretical spread is 7871 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 2730 and - 1860 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 715 and 599 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 775 and - 495 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 273 and 175 [5] - **Lead**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 515 and 55 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 196 and 307 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 4.01, 4.27, 5.86, 0.94, 1.37, and 0.68 respectively; for LME (three - continuous) are 3.88, 4.22, 6.57, 0.92, 1.56, and 0.59 respectively [8]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 2.48% on the first trading day of February 2026, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2025 [1] - Some funds shifted from cyclical and technology sectors to defensive sectors such as agriculture and consumer goods, while the overall strategy remains focused on AI technology and cyclical sectors [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in the A-share market is attributed to multiple factors, including overseas liquidity expectations due to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, which raised concerns about tightening financial conditions [2] - The commodity market's high volatility, particularly in gold and silver prices, also contributed to the market downturn [2] - The approach of the Chinese New Year holiday has led to increased market caution and observation [2] Group 3 - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the current market issues are primarily due to overtrading of trend assets, and the weak dollar cycle is not ending but rather shifting in logic [3] - The long-term logic of "cyclical Alpha, supply constraints + new economic demand + strategic resource security + weak dollar" remains intact [3][4] Group 4 - Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that a prolonged period of market fluctuation is expected before a new upward trend emerges, with a focus on AI applications and the chemical sector [4] - The AI industry continues to progress, with potential gradual transition towards application, while the cyclical Alpha recovery has not yet reached extreme values [4] Group 5 - Guotai Junan believes that after the market decline, there is potential for stabilization and a recovery in the upward trend before the Chinese New Year, maintaining a positive outlook on the Chinese stock market [5] - The focus is shifting towards domestic demand, which is expected to enhance the economic outlook and asset returns [5] Group 6 - Emerging technologies are seen as a main investment theme, with recommendations for sectors such as internet, media, computing, and robotics [6] - The expansion of domestic demand is identified as a key growth driver, with recommendations for food and beverage, consumer services, and aviation sectors [6] - The financial sector is viewed as a stabilizing force, benefiting from the growth in wealth management demand, with recommendations for insurance, brokerage, and banking [6] Group 7 - Suggested ETFs for investment include: - AI applications/emerging technology: Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330.SH), Media ETF (516190.SH) - Domestic demand: Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH) - Financial sector: Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial ETF (513190.SH) - Broad market: CSI 300 ETF (510330.SH) [7]

Core Viewpoint - Recent sharp decline in precious metals has spread panic to the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant price drops observed in various contracts [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Overnight, Shanghai tin prices continued to plummet, with initial trading today showing a slight reduction in losses, yet the main contract still fell over 9% [1] - Shanghai nickel exhibited weak fluctuations, with the main contract dropping more than 2% [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman, known for his hawkish policy stance, has raised investor concerns regarding tightening monetary policy and a strengthening dollar [1] - This shift in sentiment has rapidly cooled risk appetite, putting pressure on the entire non-ferrous metals sector [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - A significant number of long positions accumulated previously were liquidated, creating a stampede effect that exacerbated market liquidity issues and led to a sharp price decline [1]