| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 2025年5月14日 | | | 王浅辉 | Z0019938 | | | 员拥 | | | | | | 5月13日 | | | 5月12日 | 张庆 | 涨跌幅 | | 8320 | 现价 江苏一级 | | 8270 | 50 | 0.60% | | Y2509 | 期价 | 7952 | 7970 | -18 | -0.23% | | Y2509 | 墓差 | 368 | 300 | ୧୫ | 22.67% | | 09+400 | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 | | 09+390 | 10 | - | | 6370 | 仓車 | | 6370 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | 5月13日 | | | 5月12日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 8670 | 现价 广东24度 | | 8600 | 70 | 0.81% | | P2509 | 期价 | 8324 | 8450 | -126 | - ...

印尼出口政策再添一把火！多头无视高企的产量、库存继续加码，棕榈油涨势能否持续？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the supply - side pressure on the粕类 market is limited, and the futures market shows a volatile rebound. The international soybean market has near - term support, while the domestic粕类 market has a complex situation with some improvement in spot conditions but also uncertainties in supply and demand [4][5]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean futures are strong due to macro - level positives, monthly supply - demand reports, and changes in biodiesel policies. The domestic futures are relatively weak, with the soybean meal market stronger than the rapeseed meal market. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are volatile [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The near - term pressure on the international soybean market is limited. US soybean exports are good, and the April soybean crush volume has a significant year - on - year increase. Brazil's selling pressure is reduced, and the harvest progress is high. The new US soybean crop has good demand but export uncertainty [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market has improved. The oil mill crush volume has increased, and the inventory has slightly risen. The开机率 is relatively high, and the supply is reasonable. The demand for rapeseed meal is strong in the near - term, but the supply is abundant, and there are uncertainties in the long - term [5][6]. 3.3 Macro - level Analysis The reduction of tariffs between China and the US has led to a market recovery, but the粕类 market reaction is limited. The domestic soybean supply is less affected by policies, but there are still uncertainties, and the soybean meal is supported by policies in the long - term [7]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures have strengthened slightly. The supply pressure in Brazil may be reduced, but there are still uncertainties. The domestic soybean meal spot has little change, and the inventory pressure may increase with more soybean arrivals and higher开机率, affecting the monthly spreads [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market has little change. The recent decline reflects supply uncertainties. The supply is sufficient, and both supply and demand may decrease in the future, with the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillating [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: The market is expected to move in a volatile manner. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. - **Options**: A strategy of selling wide straddles is suggested [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report's Core View - The soybean meal market is affected by multiple factors. The temporary truce in the Sino - US trade war and the favorable USDA supply - demand report boost the soybean market, but profit - taking by bulls restricts the upward movement. Ideal sowing conditions in the US Midwest put pressure on soybean prices. China's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season are expected to decrease due to reduced soybean meal usage in the breeding industry [3]. - The trend intensity of soybean meal is - 1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, indicating the trend of the main - contract futures prices on the reporting day's daytime session [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE soybean No.1 2507 closed at 4160 yuan/ton during the day session, up 4 (+0.10%), and 4155 yuan/ton at night, down 5 (-0.12%) [1]. - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 2886 yuan/ton during the day session, down 7 (-0.24%), and 2880 yuan/ton at night, down 23 (-0.79%) [1]. - CBOT soybean 07 closed at 1075 cents/bushel, up 5.0 (+0.47%) [1]. - CBOT soybean meal 07 closed at 293.6 dollars/short - ton, down 4.7 (-1.58%) [1]. Spot - In Shandong, the price of soybean meal is 3030 - 3160 yuan/ton. The spot basis is M2509 + 150/+200, with different basis levels for different delivery months [1]. - In East China, the price of soybean meal in Taizhou Huifu for 14 - 18 day delivery is 3050 yuan/ton (M2509 + 100), down 50 compared to the previous day [1]. - In South China, the price of soybean meal in Zhanjiang Bohai is 3100 yuan/ton, and Hainan Oscar's 8 - 9 month price is M2509 + 70, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 4.1 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared to 9.35 million tons two trading days ago [1]. - The inventory of soybean meal was 10.06 million tons per week on the previous trading day, compared to 9.71 million tons two trading days ago [1]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On May 13, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.4%. The market is boosted by the Sino - US trade agreement and the USDA supply - demand report, but also restricted by profit - taking and ideal sowing conditions in the US Midwest [3]. - China's Ministry of Agriculture's first 2025/26 outlook report shows that China's soybean imports will drop to 9580 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a 2.8% decrease from the expected 9860 million tons this year. The USDA predicts China's soybean imports in 2025/26 to reach 11200 million tons [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans/meal, the old - crop situation is overall bullish, while the new - crop has its own supply - demand characteristics. The market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - For sugar, the international sugar market may face a supply surplus in 2025/26, while the domestic sugar market is expected to have a stable supply - demand gap. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [6][7][9]. - For the oil sector, the MPOB report has a neutral - to - bearish impact, but the overall sentiment of commodities has improved. Different oils have different supply - demand situations, and the market is in a rebound phase [17]. - For corn/corn starch, the US corn market is weak, while the domestic corn market is strong in the spot market, and the futures market has support [26]. - For hogs, the market is slightly volatile, with the spot price falling slowly and the futures market moving in a volatile manner [32]. - For peanuts, the short - term market is expected to be slightly stronger, with factors such as the expected increase in new - season planting area and weather conditions affecting the market [37]. - For eggs, the overall supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to close out short positions and wait and see [48]. - For apples, the cold - storage inventory is low, and the market supply is likely to be tight before the new fruit is on the market. The price is expected to maintain a slightly stronger and volatile trend [53]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, due to the positive results of Sino - US trade negotiations, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to strengthen under the influence of the macro - level [58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 1.52% to 1069.5 cents/bu, and CBOT meal index rose 0.1% to 297.8 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Related Information**: ANEC expects Brazil's soybean and meal exports in May to increase; EU's 2024/25 imports of soybeans, rapeseed, and meal are higher than last year; USDA's monthly supply - demand report shows bullish old - crop and new - crop has its own supply - demand data; oil mills' soybean and meal inventory data changed [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is mainly in a volatile mode; arbitrage is on hold; use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [4]. Sugar - **External Market**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.42 (2.71%) to 18.18 cents/lb [5]. - **Important Information**: Louis Dreyfus predicts a supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar market; China's sugar production and consumption are expected to change; Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of May decreased; domestic sugar spot prices and trading conditions [6][7][8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, partially close out long positions and partially hold; arbitrage is on hold; sell wide - straddle options or out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11][12]. Oil Sector - **External Market**: Overnight, CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil had price changes [14]. - **Related Information**: MPOB's April palm oil supply - demand data shows inventory increase; SPPOMA data indicates palm oil production increase in early May; EU's palm oil and other oil imports change; domestic oil trading volume increased [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, consider lightly going long on palm oil or shorting after a rebound; for the YP 09 spread, partially close out positions and partially hold; options are on hold [18][19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Change**: CBOT corn futures declined, with the main contract falling 0.8% to 443.5 cents/bu [24]. - **Important Information**: CBOT corn futures fell due to technical selling and good sowing conditions; US corn planting and emergence rates are high; future weather in the main producing areas is expected to be favorable; domestic corn port prices and spot prices changed [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, try to go long on 07 corn; for arbitrage, operate the corn - starch spread in a volatile manner and buy 07 starch and short 07 corn; for options, consider the strategy of selling call options on the spot [27][29][30]. Hogs - **Related Information**: Hog prices are in a volatile state; prices of piglets and sows changed; agricultural product wholesale price index and pork average price decreased [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a bearish approach; for arbitrage, conduct LH79 reverse spread; sell wide - straddle options [33]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions are stable; peanut oil factory arrivals, prices, and inventory changed; peanut oil and peanut meal prices and sales conditions [35][36]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, lightly go long on 10 peanuts in a short - term and operate in a volatile manner; arbitrage and options are on hold [40][41][42]. Eggs - **Important Information**: Egg prices in the main producing and selling areas changed; in - production laying hen inventory, egg - chick hatching, hen culling, egg sales, and inventory data changed [44][45][47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, close out short positions and wait and see; for arbitrage, go long on 08 and short 09; options are on hold [48][49][50]. Apples - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased, exports and imports changed; spot prices are stable, and storage merchants' profit increased [52][53]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, build long positions on AP10 at low prices; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [56][54]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Influence**: ICE US cotton declined, with the main contract falling 0.23 (0.35%) to 66.25 cents/lb [55]. - **Important Information**: Sino - US trade negotiations achieved progress; USDA's 25/26 cotton supply - demand data changed; the out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index is stable [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, US cotton is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to strengthen; arbitrage and options are on hold [58][60].

农产品日报 | 2025-05-14 巴西双周产量低于预期，原糖期价强势反弹 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13330元/吨，较前一日变动+90元/吨，幅度+0.68%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14332元/吨，较前一日变动+247元/吨，现货基差CF09+1002，较前一日变动+157；3128B棉全国均价14384元/ 吨，较前一日变动+197元/吨，现货基差CF09+1054，较前一日变动+107。 近期市场资讯，近日美国农业部公布了5月份的全球棉花供需平衡表，首次给出了2025/26年度的全球棉花平衡表。 其中，全球年度产量2565万吨，较上一年度减少71万吨，主要是中国和澳大利亚分别减产65和33万吨、而巴西增 产27万吨。消费则增加30万吨至2571万吨，印度、土耳其等多国消费预期增长，而相应的下调了中国消费预期。 进出口量双双增长，中国由于产量下调因而上调进口，此外土耳其、印度、越南以及孟加拉也提高了进口预期。 出口端美国和巴西增长明显，澳大利亚、土耳其小幅下滑。整体棉花期末库存维持不变。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡反弹。宏观方面，中美谈判取得实质性进 ...

2025年05月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，下方或有支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美国生柴炒作密集，短期易涨难跌 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易摩擦缓和，连粕偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：关注巴西压榨进度 | 7 | | 棉花：市场乐观情绪推动棉花期货反弹 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：等待矛盾释放，短期博弈 | 11 | | 花生：现货偏强 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 14 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，下方或有支撑 豆油：美国生柴炒作密集，短期易涨难跌 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 7,954 | 涨跌幅 -0.87% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,036 | 涨跌幅 1.03% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 全球糖供应预期增加，糖价短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-14 免责声明 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨 ...

Core Insights - The palm oil market is experiencing a historic price inversion, with palm oil prices falling below the cost of production, leading to a significant decline in demand for palm oil [1] - The "cheap advantage" of palm oil is being questioned, as the current market conditions may not sustain this pricing trend for long [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price spread between soybean and palm oil has reached unprecedented levels, indicating a major shift in market dynamics [1] - There is a notable lack of buyers for palm oil, even at reduced prices, suggesting a potential oversupply or loss of market confidence [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The sustainability of palm oil's price advantage is under scrutiny, with analysts predicting potential changes in market conditions that could affect future pricing [1] - The current situation raises concerns about the long-term viability of palm oil as a competitive product in the global market [1]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13425 | 45 | 46,780 | 2037 | 98,070 | -3598 | | CF05合约 | 13070 | 90 | 3,164 | 345 | 32,091 | -2206 | | CF09合约 | 13330 | 90 | 288,431 | -93974 | 569,849 | -12943 | | CY01合约 | 19500 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 0 | | CY05合约 | 18650 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 0 | | CY09合约 | 19545 | 115 | 391 | 202 | 1308 | -1 | | | | | 现货价格 | | | ...