汽车与家电作为核心赛道的表现尤为亮眼。截至10月31日，全省汽车报废更新申请47.8万辆、置换更新 申请43.1万辆，相当于每天近3000人申请汽车更新；家电领域同样成果丰硕，家电以旧换新销售新家电 1015.4万台，相当于每天3.3万人申请家电换新；3C数码产品购新补贴销售589.4万件，电动自行车以旧 换新114.4万辆，家装厨卫"焕新"18.7万件。 以旧换新让百姓省钱省力实现品质升级。山东深耕消费品以旧换新"进社区、进乡村、进企业"活动超 100场，设政策解读专区、产品展示区、免费维修服务区，让居民在"家门口"就能享受一站式服务。 聊城刘垓子镇集市上，日立、海尔、上汽大众等品牌直接"进驻"大集，村民无需往返城市门店，就能完 成旧家电和汽车评估、新商品选购、补贴申领的全流程；"旧机上门回收+新机同步安装"的一体化服 务，解决了居民处理旧品的烦恼，让家庭消费升级更具性价比。 企业借助以旧换新政策正加速渠道升级。海汇电器将社区服务作为长期工程，计划拓展至更多乡村与企 事业单位；月星家居组建"品质焕新联盟"，联动一线品牌打造一站式方案。实体企业服务网络从城市商 圈延伸至乡镇门店，让优质产品服务触达更多群体。 ...

每经编辑｜许绍航 法国知名家电制造商白朗集团（Brandt）于当地时间12月11日被法院正式宣布进入司法清算程序。 据法国媒体报道，本次裁决由法国楠泰尔经济法庭作出。这意味着这家拥有百年历史、曾被视为"法国工业象征"之一的企业将停止运营，约700名员工面 临失业风险。 消息对外公布后，法国经济与财政部随即对这家企业遭司法清算表示"悲痛"。法国中央-卢瓦尔河谷大区议会主席博诺称这一决定对法国工业来说是"沉痛 打击"。 当天，博诺前往奥尔良附近的工厂看望员工。在白朗集团位于旺多姆的另一家工厂外，数名工人以焚烧行政文件的方式与集团告别。一名员工表示，有关 决定令人震惊。我们已经尽力，但仍无力挽回。 资料显示，Brandt白朗始于1902年，拥有100多年的品牌历史，于1946年进入家电市场。白朗中国官网显示，截至2020年，公司是法国第一大家电制造 商，也是欧洲第四大高端家电品牌，同时还是法国境内为数不多仍保留生产线的大型家电厂商。 图源：Brandt白朗中国官网 白朗集团旗下拥有白朗（Brandt）、维德特（Vedette）、绍特（Sauter）和德迪特里希（De Dietrich）等品牌，合作版图覆盖法国6台、 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Three-Strategy Fusion ETF Rotation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy integrates three dimensions: fundamental-driven rotation, quality low-volatility style rotation, and distressed reversal industry discovery. It aims to achieve factor and style complementarity while reducing the risk of single-strategy exposure[35][36] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Fundamental Rotation Strategy**: Selects industries based on factors such as exceeding expected prosperity, industry leadership effects, momentum, crowding, and inflation beta[36] 2. **Quality Low-Volatility Style Strategy**: Focuses on individual stock quality, momentum, and low volatility to enhance defensiveness[36] 3. **Distressed Reversal Strategy**: Utilizes PB z-score, long-term analyst expectations, and short-term chip exchange to capture valuation recovery and performance reversal opportunities[36] 4. Combines the three strategies equally to form a composite ETF rotation strategy, achieving multi-dimensional industry screening and reducing single-strategy risks[35][36] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy effectively balances factor complementarity and style adaptation, providing robust performance across different market conditions[35][36] 2. Model Name: Hotspot Trend ETF Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy identifies ETFs with strong upward trends and high market attention, constructing a risk-parity portfolio based on support-resistance factors and turnover ratios[30] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select ETFs where both the highest and lowest prices exhibit an upward trend[30] 2. Calculate the relative steepness of the regression coefficients for the highest and lowest prices over the past 20 days to construct support-resistance factors[30] 3. Choose the top 10 ETFs with the highest 5-day turnover ratio/20-day turnover ratio from the long group of the support-resistance factor, indicating increased short-term market attention[30] 4. Construct a risk-parity portfolio using these ETFs[30] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates strong performance, achieving significant excess returns compared to the benchmark[30] 3. Model Name: Capital Flow Resonance Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy identifies industries with resonant capital flows by combining financing margin and active large-order capital flow factors, aiming to enhance stability and reduce drawdowns[42][44][45] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the financing margin factor as the market-neutralized financing net buy-in minus securities lending net sell-out, calculated as the two-week change in the 50-day moving average[45] 2. Define the active large-order capital flow factor as the market-neutralized net inflow ranking of industry trading volume over the past year, using the 10-day moving average[45] 3. Exclude extreme industries from the active large-order factor and apply a negative exclusion for the financing margin factor to improve strategy stability[45] 4. Perform weekly rebalancing to select industries with resonant capital flows for long positions[45] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy achieves stable positive excess returns with reduced drawdowns compared to other capital flow strategies[45] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Three-Strategy Fusion ETF Rotation Strategy - **2025 YTD Performance**: Portfolio return 25.60%, benchmark return 21.83%, excess return 3.77%, Sharpe ratio 0.24, maximum drawdown -7.18%[39][40] - **Overall Performance (2017-2025)**: Annualized excess return 10.28%, Sharpe ratio 1.09, maximum drawdown -24.55%[40] 2. Hotspot Trend ETF Strategy - **2025 YTD Performance**: Portfolio return 34.49%, benchmark (CSI 300) excess return 19.58%[30] 3. Capital Flow Resonance Strategy - **2018-Present Performance**: Annualized excess return 14.3%, IR 1.4, reduced drawdowns compared to Northbound-Large Order Resonance Strategy[45] - **Last Week Performance**: Absolute return -0.27%, excess return 0.37% (relative to industry equal weight)[45] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Momentum Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the continuation of stock price trends over a specific period[53] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the 1-year momentum as the return over the past 12 months, excluding the most recent month[53] 2. Rank stocks based on momentum and form quintile portfolios[53] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance, with the 1-year momentum factor achieving a weekly excess return of 1.13%[53] 2. Factor Name: R&D to Total Assets Ratio - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the proportion of R&D investment relative to total assets, reflecting innovation capability[56] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the ratio of total R&D expenses to total assets for each stock[56] 2. Rank stocks based on this ratio and form quintile portfolios[56] - **Factor Evaluation**: Performs well in small-cap indices, with an excess return of 20.25% in the CSI 500 index[56] 3. Factor Name: Single-Quarter ROA YoY Change - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the year-over-year change in return on assets (ROA) for a single quarter, reflecting profitability trends[56] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the year-over-year change in ROA for the most recent quarter, considering preliminary and forecasted data[56] 2. Rank stocks based on this change and form quintile portfolios[56] - **Factor Evaluation**: Excels in large-cap indices, with an excess return of 25.52% in the CSI 300 index[56] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Momentum Factor - **Weekly Excess Return**: 1.13%[53] 2. R&D to Total Assets Ratio - **Excess Return in CSI 500**: 20.25%[56] 3. Single-Quarter ROA YoY Change - **Excess Return in CSI 300**: 25.52%[56] - **Excess Return in CSI 500**: 10.16%[56] - **Excess Return in CSI 1000**: 21.98%[56]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% within the next six months [28]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the implementation of consumption-boosting actions and the development of urban and rural resident income plans, which are expected to enhance the performance and valuation recovery of the consumer sector [3][9]. - The tourism sector is anticipated to see continued growth, with leading companies like Trip.com Group and Huazhu Hotels responding quickly to consumer demand [3]. - The beauty industry is experiencing steady growth, with a focus on companies that can adapt to market changes and integrate products, brands, and channels effectively [3]. - The sports and outdoor apparel sector is expected to benefit from policy support, presenting investment opportunities in leading brands with market share growth potential [3]. - The media sector should focus on niche markets related to consumer sentiment, which may provide opportunities for companies with strong performance certainty [3]. - In the food and beverage sector, leading companies are expected to maintain market share through effective brand management, particularly in high-end and mid-range liquor segments [3]. - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, continues to show strong growth potential, while dairy companies may enter a profit recovery phase [3]. Summary by Sections Social Services - The industry is evolving, with a focus on companies that actively respond to changing consumer demands, particularly in tourism and beauty sectors [3][8]. Macro Dynamics - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and the implementation of consumption-boosting actions [9]. Industry Dynamics - Disney's investment in OpenAI and its strategy to control fan engagement through authorized channels reflects a significant trend in the media industry [10]. Food and Beverage - Alcohol - The majority of liquor companies reported a deeper decline in net profits in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [3][19]. - The high-end liquor segment remains resilient, with leading brands expected to enhance their market positions [3][20]. Food and Beverage - Consumer Goods - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, continues to show strong growth potential, while dairy companies may enter a profit recovery phase [3][25]. Home Appliances - The electric two-wheeler industry faced a significant decline in production and sales in November 2025, indicating challenges in consumer demand [26].

Group 1 - The core focus of the Central Economic Work Conference is to expand domestic circulation, similar to last year, but with significant differences in expectations and pricing for domestic and foreign demand stocks [10][11] - There is a strong performance expectation for overseas exposure stocks, but the difficulty in valuation increases, while domestic demand stocks have potential for valuation recovery if they exceed expectations [10][11] - The market is expected to see a short-term positive trend following the conference, with historical data indicating that the market style tends to perform well in the week following the conference [12] Group 2 - The spring market is anticipated to be a small-scale rally, with a focus on short-term price-performance opportunities in technology and cyclical sectors [13][14] - Key themes from the conference include commercial aerospace, robotics, and other sectors related to the ocean economy and energy security [13][14] - The investment strategy should focus on sectors benefiting from supply-side reforms and consumer demand stimulation, particularly in services and non-durable goods [13][14] Group 3 - The market is characterized by volatility, with a recommendation to adopt a cautious approach and wait for better entry points [16][17] - Specific sectors to watch include brokerage firms, home appliances, and mechanical equipment, with a focus on stocks that are currently undervalued [16][17] - The policy environment is expected to support structural adjustments and "anti-involution" measures, creating opportunities in social services and resource sectors [16][17] Group 4 - The investment outlook for 2026 suggests a shift from valuation-driven to earnings-driven market dynamics, with continued monetary easing expected [18] - Key narratives for the future include AI technology, safety, and industry expansion, which are anticipated to provide medium to long-term investment certainty [18] - Asset allocation strategies should focus on passive investments for risk diversification and active management for capitalizing on market trends [19]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the recent interest from foreign capital in the A-share market is driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which has opened up new investment opportunities in China [1][3] - The Federal Reserve officially lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% on December 10, 2025, in response to rising unemployment and signs of easing inflation [3] - The A-share market is currently seen as attractive due to its lower valuation compared to the US market, with a price-to-earnings ratio approximately 30% lower than that of US stocks [3] Group 2 - Foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion in the first ten months of 2025, marking a new high in four years and more than tripling the total for 2024 [4] - As of the end of Q3 2025, northbound funds held a market value of A-shares amounting to 2.58 trillion yuan, with a cumulative increase of over 340 billion yuan in the first three quarters [4] - In September 2025, net inflow of northbound funds was $4.6 billion, the highest level since November 2024, indicating a growing confidence among foreign investors [4] Group 3 - The high-end manufacturing sector is a primary focus for foreign investment, supported by government policies aimed at promoting equipment upgrades and reducing financing costs [5] - In Q3 2025, foreign capital increased its holdings in the electronic industry by 1.82 billion shares, with a market value increase of 161.3 billion yuan, making it the most favored sector [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to initiate a world-class advanced manufacturing cluster cultivation project by the end of 2024, further boosting foreign interest in this sector [5] Group 4 - The digital technology sector is another key area for foreign investment, driven by strong government support for digital economy initiatives [6] - In Q3 2025, foreign capital showed significant activity in the digital technology field, with substantial investments in semiconductor and communication sectors [7] - Northbound funds held a market value of 443.8 billion yuan in power equipment and 391.5 billion yuan in electronics, indicating a strong focus on technology-related industries [7] Group 5 - Satellite communication has emerged as a new investment focus for foreign capital, supported by government policies promoting the development of low-orbit satellite internet [8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has encouraged private enterprises to participate in the satellite communication industry, expanding application scenarios and investment opportunities [8] Group 6 - The consumer and pharmaceutical sectors are also attracting foreign investment due to their essential nature and government support for consumption upgrades [9] - The 2025 consumption upgrade policy includes subsidies for various household appliances, which is expected to stimulate market demand and attract foreign capital [9] - As of the end of Q3 2025, northbound funds held a market value of 183.9 billion yuan in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, reflecting strong interest in stable demand and innovation [9]

来源：浙商证券股份有限公司 核心观点 本周市场明显分化、呈现"沪弱深强"格局，多数宽基指数冲高回落。展望后市，由于以上证为代表的权 重指数勉强站上5 周均线，但还未收复前期上升趋势线；而在算力链"强势吸金"的背后，市场出现明显 分化格局。我们预计，在"权重不够强、行业大分化"的局面下，市场或继续维持区间震荡格局。配置方 面，基于"市场分化震荡继续，多看少动守株待兔"的判断：择时方面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨杀跌、 垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标，伺机出击、分批介入。行业配置，建议 关注明显滞涨且份额扩张的券商板块、走势顺畅且历史上在12 月胜率较高的家电，以及近期利好频出 的机械设备。个股方面，留意医药、消费、AI 应用板块中相对低位的标的，同时关注年线上方低位滞 涨个股。 本周（2025-12-08 至2025-12-12）行情概况（1）主要指数：市场呈现"沪弱深强"格局，多数宽基指数冲 高回落。（2）板块观察：算力携硬科技领涨，大周期和消费走弱。（3）市场情绪：沪深成交环比上 升，IC 股指期货合约升水。（4）资金流向：两融余额小幅上升，有色金属ETF 净流入最多。（5）量 化"黑 ...

白朗集团是法国境内为数不多仍保留生产线的大型家电厂商。今年10月，公司已因经营困难被纳入司法 重整程序。尽管政府及地方官员力推员工自主管理的"合作社接管方案"，但该方案未获法院认可。 法国知名家电制造商白朗集团（Brandt）于当地时间12月11日被法院正式宣布进入司法清算程序。 据悉，本次裁决由法国楠泰尔经济法庭作出。这意味着这家拥有百年历史、曾被视为"法国工业象征"的 企业将停止运营，约700名员工面临失业风险。消息对外公布后，法国经济与财政部随即对这家企业遭 司法清算表示"悲痛"。 白朗集团年营业额约2.6亿欧元。然而，受房地产市场低迷及大件家电消费下滑影响，该企业连续两年 销量下跌，资金缺口不断扩大。根据多方估算，要让白朗集团恢复生产至少需要2000万至2500万欧元， 而该企业将在12月15日后无力支付工资。 据中新网 法国中央-卢瓦尔河谷大区议会主席博诺称这一决定对法国工业来说是"沉痛打击"。当天，他前往奥尔 良附近的工厂看望员工。在白朗集团位于旺多姆的另一家工厂外，数名工人以焚烧行政文件的方式与集 团告别。一名员工表示，有关决定令人震惊。我们已经尽力，但仍无力挽回。 ...

Core Insights - Shandong's consumption market remains active entering winter, driven by initiatives like "trade-in for new" and "foundation building for entities" to enhance high-quality economic development [1] Group 1: Consumption Growth - The "trade-in for new" policy has generated a consumption increment valued at over 100 billion, with subsidies exceeding 20 billion RMB, leading to sales exceeding 170 billion RMB by October 2025 [2] - Daily applications for automobile updates reach nearly 3,000, with 478,000 applications for scrapping and 431,000 for replacement as of October 31 [2] - In the home appliance sector, 10.154 million new appliances were sold through trade-in, averaging 33,000 daily applications, while 5.894 million 3C digital products and 1.144 million electric bicycles were also updated [2] Group 2: Community and Enterprise Engagement - Community initiatives have included over 100 events promoting "trade-in for new," providing one-stop services for residents, including policy interpretation and product displays [2] - Brands like Hitachi, Haier, and SAIC Volkswagen are directly engaging with rural markets, facilitating the entire process of old product evaluation and new product selection [3] - Companies are leveraging the policy to accelerate channel upgrades, with community services being expanded to more rural areas and enterprises [3] Group 3: Economic Performance - Shandong's retail sales reached 30,386.1 billion RMB in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, outperforming the national average by 1.1 percentage points [4] - The innovation of consumption scenarios has been a key factor in driving growth, with new store openings and revitalization of traditional shopping areas attracting consumer interest [4] - The service sector has seen significant growth, with entertainment, public facilities management, and business services reporting revenue increases of 19.4%, 18.9%, and 16.9% respectively [4] Group 4: Brand and Investment Dynamics - Local brands like Haier, Hisense, and Qingdao Beer are leading the market, with Qingdao Beer Museum generating over 250 million RMB in revenue since its opening [5] - External investments are also increasing, with companies like Hema expanding into lower-tier cities and Sam's Club opening new stores in Shandong [5] - The transition of Shandong's economy is shifting from scale expansion to a focus on quality and efficiency, with digital transformation and industry integration becoming core drivers [5]

Group 1: Direct Impact on Individuals - Lower consumption costs due to reduced interest rates and appreciation of RMB against USD, making overseas education, travel, and cross-border shopping cheaper, saving families over ten thousand yuan annually [1] - Decrease in prices of imported goods such as luxury items and electronics, providing short-term benefits to consumers [2] - Decline in yields of dollar deposits, US Treasury bonds, and dollar-linked financial products, necessitating adjustments in asset allocation [3] - Support for safe-haven assets like gold and silver due to a weaker dollar, but caution advised as gold prices are at historical highs [4] - Eased mortgage pressure with potential reductions in monthly payments for loans, such as a decrease of 150 yuan for a 1 million yuan mortgage over 30 years [5] Group 2: Differentiated Impact on Enterprises - Positive effects for import enterprises as procurement costs in RMB decrease, leading to short-term profit increases [6] - Companies with dollar-denominated debts benefit from lower overseas financing costs and reduced interest expenses on existing dollar debts [7] - Emerging industries may see increased foreign investment, potentially boosting valuations in sectors like new energy and semiconductors [8] - Negative impact on dollar-denominated export companies as rising commodity prices weaken international competitiveness, particularly in labor-intensive sectors like textiles and home appliances [9] - Increased costs for raw material import companies due to rising international commodity prices, affecting sectors such as chemicals and air logistics [10] Group 3: Investment Market Opportunities and Risks - Anticipation of foreign capital inflow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, benefiting technology growth stocks (AI, semiconductors) and interest-sensitive sectors (brokerage, real estate) [11] - Caution advised regarding the risk of "good news being fully priced in," which may lead to increased short-term volatility [11] - Narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US alleviating depreciation pressure on RMB, with a trend of increased foreign allocation to Chinese bonds [12] - RMB exchange rate expected to stabilize and trend upwards, with recent offshore rates surpassing 7.06, though rapid appreciation may impact exports [13] - Weaker dollar driving capital towards emerging markets, with Chinese assets viewed as "value traps," but caution against rapid inflow and outflow of speculative capital [14] Group 4: Long-term Policy and Economic Linkages - Expansion of domestic policy space with reduced external constraints, allowing for more flexible monetary policy, supporting a "moderately loose" stance through 2026 [15] - Coordination of fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize growth as indicated by the Central Political Bureau meeting [15] - Potential systemic risks if the US aggressively lowers interest rates due to political pressure, which could lead to technology stock bubbles or stagflation risks [15] - Possible acceleration of RMB internationalization if the dollar's global status is undermined by diminished independence of the Federal Reserve [15]