Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd. is actively engaging in commodity futures and options hedging to stabilize raw material prices and mitigate production impact from price fluctuations [1][2] Trading Information Summary - On January 7, 2026, Shunbo Alloy closed at 7.79 yuan, down 0.76%, with a turnover rate of 3.22%, trading volume of 130,800 shares, and a transaction amount of 102 million yuan [1] - On the same day, the net outflow of main funds was 5.8976 million yuan, while speculative and retail funds saw net inflows of 3.2997 million yuan and 2.5979 million yuan, respectively [2] Company Announcement Summary - The company has received approval from its board, supervisory board, and the first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 to conduct commodity futures and options hedging, with a maximum margin and premium balance not exceeding 120 million yuan, for a duration of 12 months [1] - As of January 6, 2026, the cumulative loss from the hedging business amounted to 13.2062 million yuan, with an unrealized loss on open positions reaching 13.1106 million yuan [1][2] - The hedging activities are not expected to affect the company's normal operations, and the annual profit impact will be determined based on actual gains and losses [1]

Group 1 - The prices of non-ferrous metals are on an upward trend due to multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply-demand dynamics, and policy support, leading to optimistic performance forecasts for the sector [1][4] - The Ministry of Natural Resources announced a new round of mineral exploration actions, achieving significant results during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, including the discovery of 10 large oil fields and 19 large gas fields, with substantial increases in resources like uranium, copper, gold, lithium, and potassium salt [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology projects an average annual growth of about 5% in the added value of the non-ferrous metal industry and a 1.5% annual growth in the production of ten major non-ferrous metals from 2025 to 2026 [2] Group 2 - Major non-ferrous metal prices are expected to continue rising in 2025, with significant increases reported: London gold up 64.56%, London silver up 147.79%, and LME copper and tin both over 30% [3] - Investment demand, particularly from emerging fields like artificial intelligence and energy storage, is anticipated to drive a new commodity cycle, with industrial metal prices expected to rise further due to ongoing liquidity easing and supply constraints [4] - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen net inflows of 12.981 billion yuan since December 2025, with several companies, including Ganfeng Lithium and Zijin Mining, receiving significant financing [5] Group 3 - Companies such as Chifeng Gold and Zijin Mining have announced positive earnings forecasts for 2025, with Chifeng Gold expecting a net profit of 3 to 3.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70% to 81%, and Zijin Mining projecting a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [6][7] - Chifeng Gold's expected gold production for 2025 is approximately 14.4 tons, with sales prices rising by about 49%, while Zijin Mining plans to produce 105 tons of gold, 120,000 tons of copper, 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and 520 tons of silver in 2026 [7]

Group 1 - The core feature of the market at the beginning of 2026 is the continuous rise of the Shanghai Composite Index and the accelerated entry of leveraged funds [1] - As of January 6, 2026, the margin trading balance reached a historical high of 25,799 billion yuan, with a cumulative increase of over 392 billion yuan in the first two trading days of the year [1] - Among 31 industries, 28 experienced net financing inflows, with the electronics sector leading at a net inflow of 7.748 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The increase in leveraged funds is driven by a strengthened "optimistic consensus," supported by breakthroughs in commercial aerospace and strong reform expectations for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The macro liquidity environment is loose, providing a solid foundation for the market, attracting incremental capital including leveraged funds [2] - Investors are focusing on sectors with clear growth potential, such as non-ferrous metals and electronics, reflecting a dual logic of certainty and growth [2] Group 3 - The inflow of leveraged funds is expected to enhance the market's structural characteristics, guiding capital towards high prosperity and high liquidity sectors [3] - As of January 6, the margin trading balance accounted for 2.53% of the A-share circulating market value, indicating a healthy level compared to historical peaks [3] - Despite the current manageable level of leverage, rapid increases in leveraged funds can amplify market volatility, prompting caution among investors [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that the spring market rally typically begins around the New Year and lasts until the spring equinox, with specific technical indicators signaling the start of the rally [1] - The spring market rally is expected to start from December 16, 2025, following a double bottom support structure at the previous low of 3816, with a target of reaching 4018 after breaking through key resistance levels [1] - Historical patterns indicate that the spring rally usually lasts for 55 trading days, which would project an end date around March 16, coinciding with the spring equinox on March 20 [1] Group 2 - The market is anticipated to face resistance around 4173, with a gradual upward trend expected, characterized by periods of consolidation before reaching higher levels [2] - The recent trading pattern from August 26 to January 7 shows limited price movement, suggesting a potential for a similar pattern of consolidation followed by upward movement [2] - Short-term trading strategies involve monitoring the KDJ indicator for buy signals after a period of consolidation, with a focus on holding positions in technology hardware and non-ferrous metals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global industrial metal market is experiencing a significant surge in prices, driven by supply concerns and geopolitical events, particularly in the context of nickel and copper markets [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 6, 2026, LME copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, tin, and lead futures prices all surged, with LME copper reaching a new high and LME nickel prices increasing by over 10% [2][3]. - Domestic markets in China also saw a strong performance, with nickel futures hitting the daily limit and other metals like tin and alumina rising by 5.3% and 4.97%, respectively [3]. - The overall trend indicates a robust start to the year for industrial metals, with copper prices up over 5% since the beginning of 2026 [6]. Group 2: Supply Concerns - The primary driver for the recent price increases is supply disruptions, particularly in nickel due to production cuts announced by Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, which plans to reduce its output target by 34% [4][5]. - The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) forecasts a demand of 3.82 million tons for nickel in 2026, with production at 4.09 million tons, indicating potential oversupply despite the recent cuts [5]. - High inventory levels, with LME nickel stocks at 25.4 million tons, are currently exerting downward pressure on prices in the medium term [5]. Group 3: Copper Market Dynamics - LME copper prices rose by 1.9% on January 6, reaching $13,238 per ton, with a peak of $13,387.5, marking a significant increase driven by structural supply shortages and rising demand from sectors like electrification and data centers [6][7]. - Recent disruptions, including strikes at copper mines in Chile and delays in projects, have heightened concerns over copper supply [6][7]. - Financial institutions like Citigroup have raised their short-term copper price forecasts, reflecting bullish sentiment in the market [6][7]. Group 4: Broader Metal Market Trends - Other industrial metals also showed strong performance, with LME tin rising by 4.8%, aluminum by 1.4%, zinc by 1.8%, and lead by 2.6% [8]. - The aluminum sector is particularly highlighted, with supply constraints due to high domestic utilization rates and limited overseas production capacity [8]. - Significant capital inflows into metal ETFs in China indicate a growing interest in the sector, with notable net inflows into various funds [8][9]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The performance of the metals sector in 2025 was notable, with a 94.73% increase in the A-share metals sector, indicating strong investor interest [9]. - Macro factors such as lower-than-expected inflation data in the U.S. and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support the valuation of the metals sector [9]. - Policy initiatives aimed at enhancing industry concentration and resource pricing power are anticipated to provide long-term support for the sector [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the silver market, driven by expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting in September 2025, which lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver and suppresses the dollar's value, thereby boosting silver prices denominated in dollars [1] - Geopolitical risks have increased, leading to silver, like gold, attracting safe-haven investments, while the trend of global central banks increasing their gold holdings indirectly enhances the appeal of precious metals [1] - On the supply and demand side, silver has a rigid industrial demand, particularly from cutting-edge technology sectors, as it is the best conductor of electricity on Earth and is irreplaceable in electric vehicles, photovoltaics, AI servers, and 5G communications [1] Group 2 - The global silver market has been in a supply-demand deficit for several consecutive years, with over 70% of silver being a byproduct of mining copper, lead, and zinc, making it difficult for production to quickly increase in response to rising silver prices, a phenomenon referred to as the "byproduct curse" [1] - Physical inventories, especially the deliverable stocks on the London and New York exchanges, have fallen to historical lows [1] - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from 106 in April to 85, remaining above the historical average range of 40-80, indicating that silver has ample room for price appreciation if gold continues to rise and the ratio moves towards the mean [2]

Group 1 - The overall impact of new energy and AI on the non-ferrous metal sector is structural and real, but the "demand value" varies significantly among different metals [1] - For copper, significant investments are required for infrastructure related to new energy generation, electric vehicle charging networks, and AI data centers, indicating a systemic and rigid demand [1] - JPMorgan estimates that AI alone will add 2.6 million tons of copper demand by 2030 [1] Group 2 - The growth in global photovoltaic (PV) installations has indeed created solid industrial demand for silver [1] - However, advancements in PV technology are leading to a rapid decrease in silver paste consumption per solar cell, dropping from approximately 130 mg per cell in 2019 to about 65 mg per cell in 2023 [1] - Consequently, the growth rate of silver demand may lag behind the growth rate of PV installations [1]

Group 1 - The global metal futures market experienced a strong start in 2026, with significant price increases across major industrial metals [1] - On January 6, 2026, all six major metal futures prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged, with LME copper futures reaching a new high and LME nickel futures seeing an intraday increase of over 10% [1] - On January 7, 2026, domestic markets also saw a capital influx into non-ferrous metals, with industrial metal prices rising significantly; Shanghai nickel futures hit the daily limit, while Shanghai tin and alumina rose by 5.3% and 4.97% respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term investment perspective on industrial non-ferrous metals should be viewed as a "strategic resource asset" benefiting from global liquidity easing and the future of electrification and digitalization, rather than merely a cyclical commodity [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The manager is optimistic about the medium to long-term performance of the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - The Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle is favorable for dollar-denominated non-ferrous metals [1] - Supply-side disruptions, including accidents in South American and Central African copper mines, have led to tight supply, exacerbated by the recent mining accident at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine [1] Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand for industrial metals is continuously rising, driven by energy transition and the AI wave [1]

Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 0.22% to close at 1,496.28 points on January 7, 2026, with a trading volume of 275.48 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 4.09% [1][2] - The overall valuation of the North Exchange is at 47.70 times earnings, which is higher than the valuations of the ChiNext and STAR Market [1][8] - The sectors with the largest gains include Oil & Petrochemicals (+6.0%), Nonferrous Metals (+5.4%), and Communications (+1.6%), while the sectors with the largest declines include Computers (-2.2%), Defense & Military (-1.8%), and Pharmaceuticals & Biology (-1.5%) [1][2] Trading Performance - On January 7, 2026, the North Exchange had a total market capitalization of 903.09 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 549.77 billion yuan [1] - The trading volume was 10.35 billion shares, indicating a recovery compared to the average daily trading volume of 19.40 billion yuan from the previous week [1][5] Stock Performance - Among the 287 listed companies, 95 saw an increase in stock price, while 187 experienced a decline. The top gainers included Jiaxian Co. (+25.68%), Huitong New Materials (+16.83%), and Jiuling Technology (+8.29%) [1][6] - The largest declines were observed in Jinhao Medical (-14.76%), Tianming Technology (-12.58%), and Guoyuan Technology (-11.59%) [1][7] Valuation Insights - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for North Exchange companies is 47.70 times, with the highest sector being Nonferrous Metals at 130.5 times, followed by Household Appliances at 90.9 times and Food & Beverage at 82.3 times [1][8] - The P/E ratios for STAR Market and ChiNext are 76.06 times and 45.01 times, respectively, indicating that the North Exchange maintains a higher valuation compared to these markets [1][9] Sector Analysis - The North Exchange shows a mixed performance across various sectors, with significant gains in Oil & Petrochemicals and Nonferrous Metals, while sectors like Computers and Pharmaceuticals are underperforming [1][10] - The distribution of listed companies across sectors indicates a diverse market presence, with a notable concentration in sectors such as Machinery and Chemicals [1][11]